What can we expect from Shelby Miller this season?

If you are like me, you are eagerly anticipating Shelby Miller's season debut tomorrow.  After beating out Joe Kelly for the 5th starter job, all Cardinals fans are waiting to see if he can live up to the hype.

However, as often happens, it is rare that a pitcher lives up to the hype.  Take for example the top 5 starting pitchers in the 2012 NL Cy Young voting.  Here is how those 5 pitchers performed in their rookie seasons:

1.  R.A. Dickey

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
2003	9	8	.529	5.09	38	13	116.2	135	66	38	94	1.483

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.

2.  Clayton Kershaw

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
2008	5	5	.500	4.26	22	21	107.2	109	51	52	100	1.495

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.

3.  Gio Gonzalez

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
2009	6	7	.462	5.75	20	17	98.2	113	63	56	109	1.713

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.

4. Johnny Cueto

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER		BB	SO	WHIP
2008	9	14	.391	4.81	31	31	174.0	178	93		68	158	1.414

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.

5.  Matt Cain

Year	W	L	W-L%	ERA	G	GS	IP	H	ER	BB	SO	WHIP
2006	13	12	.520	4.15	32	31	190.2	157	88	87	179	1.280

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.

As you can see, out of the 5 Cy Young caliber pitchers from 2012, only one (Cain) had a decent rookie season.  That's not to say that Shelby Miller won't have a good year.  But we shouldn't be surprise if he struggles some this year.

So, what should we expect from Miller this year?  Fangraphs has 4 different projections for Miller this year, ranging from a 3.53 ERA to a 4.29 ERA for an average of 3.96, which seems like a reasonable expectation for him.

If he can post a ERA under 4.00 for the year and get double digit wins, I think most fans would be happy.