How do the Cardinals' July trades affect their roster going forward?

The Cardinals current and future roster changed dramatically in July when John Mozeliak jettisoned Allen Craig, Joe Kelly and minor leaguer James Ramsey in exchange for pitchers Justin Masterson and John Lackey, along with minor leaguer pitcher Corey Littrell.

Kelly would have been under team control through the 2018 season and Craig was signed to a reasonable contract through the 2017 season, with a $13 million option for 2018.

In exchange, the Cardinals got Masterson, who is a free agent after this season, and Lackey, who has an incredibly low $500K option for 2015.

The move also cleared room for top prospect Oscar Taveras to play everyday as the starting right fielder.

Does it make the team better in the long run?  That's hard to say, but at least one writer, Bob Nightengale thinks that the Cardinals will regret the Lackey trade.

However, it does change the Cardinals projected lineup and starting pitching for 2015 and beyond, here's a quick look at both:

Lineup

With Taveras replacing Craig, the lineup should be pretty much set through the 2016 season, after which, both Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are set to become free agents. 

Back in December, I predicted that James Ramsey was the heir apparent to the center field job, eventually replacing Bourjos after the 2016 season (I predicted Jay would be traded this year).

The Cards other top outfield prospects, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are both projected as corner outfielders, leaving the team without an obvious center fielder of the future. 

Tommy Pham is probably the Cardinals best defensive center field prospect, but has a career .253 average in the minors.  He has hit well this year, with a .332 average, albeit in the hitter-friendly PCL.

In any case, the Cards could always extend the contracts of Jay or Bourjos, if needed.

Starting Rotation

Here's where things get a little more interesting.  The Cardinals obviously needed starting pitching this year to make up for the losses of Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha.  Its unlikely that Garcia will pitch for the Cards again, while Wacha hopes to return sometime in September and should be healthy going forward.

With Lacky signed through 2015 and Masterson a free agent after the season, here's what the 2015 rotation should look like:

1.  Adam Wainwright
2. Michael Wacha
3. John Lackey
4. Lance Lynn
5. Shelby Miller

 There are still some concerns about Miller, but the Cardinals will still have Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales and some other young guns waiting in the wings.

For 2016, Lackey will roll off the books, with Martinez and Gonzales battling for the 5th spot.  Giving us the following rotation:

1. Wainwright
2. Wacha
3. Lynn
4. Miller
5. Martinez/Gonzales

This rotation will continue through the 2017 season, after which Lynn becomes a free agent, giving us the following projected rotation for 2018:

1. Wainwright
2. Wacha
3. Miller
4. Martinez
5. Gonzales

After that, I would really need a crystal ball, as Wainwright and Miller will be free agents after 2018 and who knows which prospects will be ready to take their places (Rob Kaminsky, Tim Cooney, etc.).

Overall, I think the Ramsey loss could create a hole in center in the future, while the Cardinals overall pitching depth doesn't seem as strong as the past few years.  But, if the team can keep drafting and developing players like they have in the past, these issues will resolve themselves.

Random thoughts on the Cardinals moves as the trade deadline dust settles

As we all continue to digest the trade deadline moves by the Cardinals, here are some of my random thoughts on them.

The Cardinals overpaid on John Lackey

Lackey is a good pitcher and all that, but is he really worth both Allen Craig and Joe Kelly?  My initial impression when I heard of the trade was that we "sold low" on both Craig and Kelly.  Yes, they were both having down years and perhaps had fallen out of favor with the Cards, but couldn't we have gotten something better for them?

Despite all that, I don't think we could have used those two to get David Price and I don't think that John Mozeliak would have given these guys up for a two-month rental (aka Jon Lester), so maybe Lackey was the best he could do.

David Price's price was cheaper than I thought

In a 3-team deal, the Rays traded Price to Detroit while getting Nick Franklin (from Seattle), Drew Smyly (from Detroit) and minor leaguer Willy Adames.  Franklin was, at best, a top 50 prospect and has yet to hit in the majors.  Smyly is a good, solid left handed pitcher.  While Adames is kind of a "meh" prospect.

Could the Cardinals have topped that?  Certainly.  Give the Rays Shelby Miller, Stephen Piscotty and some mid-level prospect and you should have a deal.

My thought all along is that it would take a top-end prospect to land Price, but apparently that was not the case.

Acquiring Justin Masterson was a classic Mozeliak move

The last few years we've grown accustomed to the Cardinals GM John Mozeliak making small tweaks to the team at the trade deadline (or thereafter). The last couple years those tweaks were to use some extra prospects pieces to acquire a struggling pitcher in hopes they turn it around with the Cards.

In 2012, that pitcher was Edward Mujica, who had a 4.38 ERA with the Marlins before Mo acquired him.  He then proceeded to post a 1.03 ERA down the stretch with the Cardinals.

In August of 2013, the Cardinals picked up John Axford from the Brewers, who had a 4.45 ERA prior to the trade and a 1.74 ERA afterwards.

Hopefully, Masterson can follow this same trend.

Are the Cardinals really better off?

The team dealt from its surplus of outfielders to acquire some pitching depth, but does that make them better?  Well, maybe.


The starting rotation should be better with Lackey and Masterson replacing Kelly and Martinez, who has been shipped back to Memphis to keep him stretched out as a starter.  The biggest question is how Masterson's knee holds up.

On the hitting side, moving Craig opens up an opportunity for Taveras, but weakens an already thin bench.  It also remains to be seen if Taveras can outproduce Craig, at least this season.

Overall, I would have been happy if Mozeliak had just stopped with the Masterson trade.  The Lackey trade is one that could certainly come back to haunt him.  However, it obvious that Mo felt that he had to make a big move to try to shake up this team and get them back to playing the way they're capable.