Thus, as I did with the starting rotation a little while ago, its time to look at the projected Cardinals lineups not only for 2014 but for future years as well.
In case you missed it, as I had just started up this blog at the time, I did a similar exercise last year, which can be found HERE.
Its always interesting to see how my projections look a year after they are made. The main restriction I put on myself is to assume that all openings will be filled in-house (i.e. no free agents or trades), thereby relying only on the Cardinals farm system to fill holes, which, as we have seen this offseason, is not always the case.
Thus, last year, I showed 2013 free agents Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran being replaced by Pete Kozma and Oscar Taveras in 2014 and then 2015 free agent David Freese being replaced by Kolten Wong with Matt Carpenter moving over to third.
However, this year, with the likely starters all locked up through at least the 2016 season, taking the above approach would be pretty boring, thus, I decided to shake things up a bit by assuming some possible trades and free agent signings.
In any case, here's how I see things shaking out over the next few years:
2014
As I alluded to before, the 2014 lineup is set, its just a matter of figuring out the batting order. I think Mike Matheny will make new addition Peter Bourjos the leadoff hitter, followed by Matt Carpenter. However, I'm not entirely sold on Bourjos as a leadoff man, given his career .306 OBP and I can see Carpenter returning to the leadoff spot with Jhonny Peralta hitting second.
From there, Matt Holliday will likely stay in his familiar 3rd spot with Allen Craig hitting 4th. Then Yadier Molina and Matt Adams following, with perhaps Adams moving down further against some lefties. That leaves Bourjos and Kolten Wong bringing up the rear.
Thus, here is my projected 2014 lineup:
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Jhonny Peralta, SS
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- pitcher
At some point in the 2014 season or before the 2015 season begins, the Cardinals are going to have to make a big decision. Oscar Taveras will likely be ready to assume a full-time outfield role with the team and the Cards already have too many outfielders.
Jon Jay will likely have already been traded by the July 2014 trade deadline, but that still leaves the Cardinals with Holliday, Craig, Bourjos, Adams and Taveras to fill 4 spots (including first) and that's not even considering the Cards other top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty. I could see the team possibly trading Holliday, who will be 35 at this time, to free up some salary and to replenish their farm system.
Holliday is owed $17 million a year through 2016, with an $17 million option for 2017 that carries a $1 million buyout. Thus, trading him at this time would save the team $35 million. Allen Craig is another trade possibility, but he's younger and under a more reasonable contract, thereby making Holliday the more appealing option.
Thus, here is how I see the 2015 lineup panning out:
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Jhonny Peralta, SS
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- pitcher
Again, there would be no free agents to worry about at this time, so it comes down to whether the Cardinals feel a trade or free agent signing make sense.
My main concern around this time would be Peralta's defense at short. He will turn 34 during the 2016 season and will likely have lost a step or two on defense. Thus, it might make sense for the Cards to pursue a free agent shortstop.
Yunel Escobar will be a free agent after the 2015 season and could be a good fit for the Cardinals. While he is an average hitter, he has proven to be an above average fielder in his career and would give the team's defense a boost.
Of course, if the team signs Escobar, that leaves Peralta without a position. He could become trade bait or a super utility player, but in either case he will be out of the starting lineup.
Also, by this time, I would think that Wong will have established himself as a good major league hitter and capable leadoff man, thereby allowing Carpenter to bat second, thus giving us the following lineup:
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Yunel Escobar, SS
- pitcher
Finally, a free agent! After the 2016 season, Peter Bourjos will likely leave via free agency. Waiting in the wings could be James Ramsey, who will have likely served a long apprenticeship, beginning in 2015 as a 4th outfielder.
Other than that, it will be more of the status quo for the team, giving us the following lineup:
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Yunel Escobar, SS
- James Ramsey, CF
- pitcher
However, the team is certainly set up for long-term success and, if they continue to develop players as they have recently, that success will continue.
If Oscar Taveras pans out to be the player everyone expects he should take over the 3rd spot in 2016. Also wondering what will happen to Stephen Piscotty down the road if he keeps up the tear he's on right now.
ReplyDeleteI don't see Molina ever batting in the three hole. He's an exceptional clutch hitter with great contact but his already limited power will only decrease as he ages. I think Peralta will play out his whole contract as the starting shortstop for the Cardinals and hopefully his successor, perhaps Oscar Mercado, can be developed through the farm system and fill in nicely.
DeleteI don't see Molina batting in the three hole. He's a great clutch hitter with exceptional contact but his already limited power will only decrease as he ages. I think Peralta will play out his whole contract as the starting shortstop for the Cardinals and hopefully his successor, perhaps Oscar Mercado, can be developed through the farm system and can fill in nicely.
DeleteYou may be right about Holliday but I would not place any bets on it. If Holliday were turning 38 years old I could see the move.
ReplyDeletePretty gutsy predicting that far out but you may be close. What I have tried to figure out is who most likely will not "pan out" or develop enough to play on a championship caliber team such as the Cards every year. I'm tempted to say Wong but that's because of what is probably a misleading 2013. For some reason Matt Adams seems to me to be the kind of player that could go cold at the plate and thus make room for an outfielder at first. (Craig) Fun to speculate. Probably completely wrong.
ReplyDeleteWhat!?!? Every year you have removed power and added a prospect. If you think Yadi will be batting in the 3 hole from 2015 through 2017, you're crazy! I agree with moving Jay. If Holliday continues to hit .300 plus 30hr's why does he need to go? Also, you are assuming that we will only use farm raised players moving forward and that's not true. We need to both, keep prospects and use them to address what ever issues arise. While this shows a better defensive unit moving forward, you have depleted the power on this team. If that's not "really' addressed we won't be as balanced as we need. While I disagree with a lot of this, I liked the read. Go Cards in 2014,'15,'16, '17......
ReplyDeleteAgain, these are just my predictions and opinions may vary.
ReplyDeletePower isn't everything, the Cardinals finished 27th in the majors in homers in 2013 and still made it to the WS. Besides, Taveras could develop into a power threat that surpasses Holliday and comes with a much cheaper price.
Finally, I don't see Holliday continuing to hit .300 with 30 homers every year (in fact, he only hit 22 homers in 2013). At some point, his value will be much less than the $17 million the Cards are paying him and that's why I think it would be better to trade him while his value is still high.
Holliday's contract has a full no-trade clause that will keep him in St. Louis beyond 2014, you can count on that. He probably won't keep hitting 3rd or 4th after this coming year, however. I also don't think Yadi will be hitting 3rd during the 2015-17 time period. It'll either be Taveras, Piscotty, or some yet-undetermined (free agent) piece. Personally, I don't see much value in projecting a lineup out beyond one or, at most, two full seasons unless you're just bored and really into wild-*** speculations. There is so much that changes with regard to injuries, surprising performances, the timing of arbitration/contracts, prospects that exceed/fall short of expectations, and free agent opportunities from season to season to predict with any meaningful accuracy what will happen. For all we know, the Cards may sign the next Joe Mauer in next year's draft and insert him as a cornerstone in the lineup by 2016, or Oscar Taveras may struggle to hit his own body weight at the MLB level, or they might just be the ones to pick off Mike Trout in free agency. Huge surprises are a virtual certainty. I mean, even as of late 2011, who in the Cardinal fanbase would've viewed Matt Carpenter as a potential lineup/infield cornerstone for the next 5-10 years?
ReplyDeleteYou are wrong about Kolton Wong. He will be back in the minors sometime in May 2014. He can't hit a tee ball and he is not a player that will develop further. He is one of those triple A stars that never learns another thing and does not improve.
ReplyDeleteI have a sneaking suspicion you're right....something about him just screams "flop."
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