Is Bryce Harper still a possibility for the Cardinals?

At last week's winter meetings, uber-agent Scott Boras held his annual press conference, basically because he can.

During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".

Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".

The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.

But will they be?

The short answer is maybe.

The long answer is it's complicated.

First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders.  They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position.  Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.

In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job.  Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract. 

O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability.  The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings.  Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.

Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want.  Can the Cardinals wait that long?

Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage.  They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency.  But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.

Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high.  He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.

Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million.  Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history.  Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.

Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value).  That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.

Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper.  However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.

All we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Winter Meetings: What is on the Cardinals to do list?

With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks last week, the Cardinals already checked one item off their to do list for this off season. Although another big bat, like Bryce Harper, would be nice, it doesn't appear to be in the Cards.

So, what is left on the Cardinals to do list for this off season?  Let's take a look:

1.  Strengthen the bullpen, particularly from the left side

The Cards still have two years and $15 million left on the regrettable Brett Cecil contract and while they don't want to make the same mistake again, they still need to strengthen the left side of their bullpen if they want to contend next year.

Derrick Goold indicates that the Cardinals are in on lefties Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.  Both have closing experience, which could allow the Cards to give Jordan Hicks more time to develop before thrusting him into that role.  

However, both Britton (Achilles) and Miller (shoulder) dealt with injuries last year and will not come cheap.  They are in high demand and will likely cost in excess of $30 million over 3 years.  While the Cards have the financial flexibility to make such a deal, its hard to see them go all in on either Britton or Miller after getting burned by Cecil.

If neither of them work out for the Cardinals, they could pivot to the next tier of lefties, such as Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and/or Tony Sipp.

2.  Add a left handed bench bat, preferably one with some pop

The Cards entered this off season looking for a big bat, preferably one who hits left handed. 

However, they ended up with Goldschmidt.  

While that is all well and good, the Cardinals could still use some pop from the left side to keep opposing teams honest.

According to Goold, they have had talks with Daniel Descalso's agent about a possible reunion and Derek Dietrich is another possibility.  

Beyond that, there's not many appealing options on the free agent market, so the team might have to look inwards and hope they can make do with someone like the switch hitting Tommy Edman or lefty Max Schrock, although neither offers much pop. 

3.  Sort out the outfield logjam

According to Brendan Schaeffer, the Cardinals are going to give Dexter Fowler every opportunity to assume the everyday right field role in 2019.  While that is the PC thing to say, its hard to see him bouncing back from a .180/.278/.298 season that was cut short by a foot injury.

The Cards have Tyler O'Neil waiting in the wings, but he strikes out a ton (57 times in 130 at bats) and may not hit much better.

That leaves Jose Martinez.  He was the second best hitter on the team, in terms of OPS (behind only Matt Carpenter) and while his defense is much maligned, his DRS of -6 is only slightly worse than Fowler's -5 and his UZR of -1 is actually better than Fowler's -5.2 mark.

Long story short, I wouldn't give up on Martinez just yet.  While they are unlikely to be able to trade away Fowler and his hefty contract, especially given his down year, they could be willing to relegate him to a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement role.

In any case, it should be an interesting week.

After blockbuster trade for Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals fans still want more.

As you may have heard, the St. Louis Cardinals pulled off a big trade yesterday, acquiring Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a few spare parts. 

That's not to belittle Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly or Andy Young (or the compensation draft pick) that the Cardinals gave up for Goldschmidt.  They could very well end up becoming All-Stars for Arizona for years to come.  

However, it was pretty obvious that the Cardinals did not see any of these players as an integral part of their 2019 or future plans:  Weaver struggled last year and was demoted to the pen, Kelly may have been surpassed by Andrew Knizer as the Cardinals catcher of the future, and no one had probably heard of Young prior to this trade.

While that was an excellent get by the Cards and one that should help the team's offense and defense for 2019, what concerned most Cardinals fans was the news that came out shortly after.

According to Jennifer Langosch, despite "substantial financial flexibility", the Cards will not pursue Bryce Harper and will instead turn their attention to other needs.

Wait...what?

Yes, you heard that correctly.  The Cardinals have the wherewithal to pursue another difference maker in Harper, but are already pulling themselves out of the race.

Granted, this could just be a smoke screen by the Cards.  A means of trying to lower Harper's asking price.  But, if it is not, it makes one wonder just how committed to winning the Cardinals really are.

The addition of Goldschmidt certainly improves the Cardinals chances for 2019.  But both he and Marcell Ozuna are due to become free agents after next season.  The Cards are certainly hoping to sign one or both of them to an extension, but that is not a given.

The Cardinals, due to their draft position in the mid to late first round each year, are unlikely to acquire a big hitter in the draft.  Thus, their best bet is to either acquire such a bat via trade (like Ozuna and Goldy) or free agency.

Signing a player like Harper would guarantee that the Cardinals have a middle of the order bat locked up for years to come.  Plus it would send a message to the rest of the NL Central that the Cardinals are serious about contending in 2019, not just for the division title but for the World Series.

Signing Harper would give the Cards a formidable lineup for 2019, as well as better lefty/righty balance in the heart of the order.  It would be the kind of bold move that the Cardinals management rarely makes, but one that they should make.

The Cardinals already have Nelly recruiting Harper for them and the addition of Goldschmidt should make the Cards more appealing to Bryce.  It just comes down to whether the Cardinals are willing to pony up what it would take to get him.

Past history and my gut tells me that will not happen.  But one can certainly hope.

Cards shuffle the deck. Do they have what it takes to win it all?

Once again, the Cardinals and GM John Mozeliak got their Christmas shopping done early.  Last year, Mo made his big moves in November (trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta) and he did the same this year (trading Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden).

Other than maybe a couple more tweaks, it appears that the roster is complete.  But are the Cardinals better off than last year?  Do they have what it takes to win it all?  Lets take a look at the changes and see.

Infield

The main goal for Mozeliak this offseason was to find a right handed bat who could play first and potentially platoon with Matt Adams.  Mo filled that hole with the signing of Mark Reynolds to a one year, $2 million contract. 

Reynolds will not provide much in terms of batting average (career .229 hitter), but he has 224 homers in 1118 games and has fared a bit better against lefties in his career (.809 OPS compared to .772 vs righties).  This is far better than Adams' numbers against lefties (.553 career OPS), making Reynolds a good option to platoon with Adams.

Free agent Mark Ellis and his .180 average will not return and the Cardinals finally moved on from Daniel Descalso and his career .654 OPS.  Replacing them will be veteran minor leaguer Dean Anna, who finally got a cup of coffee in the majors last year at the age of 27 and hit just .136 in 22 at bats.  However, he does have a career .380 OBP in the minors, with nearly as many walks (310) as strikeouts (319) in 2448 plate appearances.

Another addition, is 26 year old Ty Kelly, who the Cardinals acquired from Seattle for Sam Gaviglio. Like Anna, Kelly showed the ability to get on base in the minors (.387 OBP) and had more walks (434) than strikeouts (431).  Both Anna and Kelly project to be utility infielders, with Anna capable of playing second, short, third and corner outfield, while Kelly is capable of playing second, third and corner outfield.

Pete Kozma will also compete for a backup spot and is a career .236 hitter in 522 at bats.

Overall, I would have to say that infield is a bit better than last year, as the bench has improved with the addition of Reynolds, while the combination of Anna, Kelly and/or Kozma should be able to improve upon the meager outputs of Ellis and Descalso.

Outfield

After losing top prospect and likely starting right fielder Oscar Taveras to a tragic car accident, the Cardinals filled the void with the trade for Heyward.  Heyward is an excellent defender, but has seen his OPS drop in each of the last 3 years from .814 in 2012, to .776 in 2013 and .735 in 2014.  The main culprit for this drop is a serious power outage during that time that has seen his home runs drop from a career high of 27 in 2012 to a career low of 11 last season.

Randall Grichuk seemed to find his stroke in the second half last season, hitting .318/.338/.485 after the break and should provide some pop off the bench.  Peter Bourjos will also fill a reserve role, with resurgent Jon Jay (.303/.372/.378) having reclaimed his starting job.

The Cardinals will also have highly regarded prospect Stephen Piscotty and defensive wiz Tommy Pham as extra depth at AAA Memphis, while Shane Robinson, who was released in November, along with his career .612 OPS, will not be missed.

Overall, Heyward should be an upgrade over the Cardinals 2014 right fielders (mostly Allen Craig and Taveras) who hit a combined .237/.283/.326.  Bourjos and Grichuk will provide the backup, as they did for most of 2014 and will look to improve on their 2014 numbers.

Starting Pitching

The Cardinals started the overhaul of their rotation last July, with the acquisition of John Lackey for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  He will slot into the rotation that will also feature holdovers Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha.

With the trade of Shelby Miller, the 5th starter job will likely come down to a battle between Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales.  Martinez made 7 starts last year and has the best stuff of the two, whereas Gonzales made 5 starts in 2014 and may be more polished.

One key to the Cardinals rotation will be the health of Wacha, who missed over two months last year due to a stress reaction in his shoulder.  Should he prove healthy, he will give the Cards a quartet of starters that would match up well with most other teams in the league. 

Another key will be Lynn proving that his 2014 season (15-10, 2.74 ERA) was not a fluke.  He has been troubled by inconsistency throughout his career and must prove that he can put another strong season together.

Overall, with a healthy Wacha, the Cardinals rotation should be better.  The emphasis should be on keeping these guys healthy, as the Cards showed in 2014 that their pitching depth isn't all that its cracked up to be, using 4 different guys (Martinez, Kelly, Gonzales and Tyler Lyons) to replace the injured Wacha and Jaime Garcia.

Bullpen

The bullpen appears to be the biggest question mark for the team heading into the 2015 season.  Closer Trevor Rosenthal showed some signs of wear and tear after being leaned on heavily the last two seasons.  His walk rate jumped from 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 to 5.4 BB/9 in 2014.  He was able to wiggle out of numerous jams while posting 45 saves, but he was often walking a tightrope.

The Cardinals most effective reliever, Pat Neshek, is gone, taking with him a sparkling 1.87 ERA and 7 wins in 67.1 innings.  While there are questions regarding Kevin Siegrist's health and who will replace Martinez' innings, should he move to a starter role.

To fill these voids, Mozeliak brought in Walden, who has a career ERA of 3.10 in 211.2 innings, and veteran Matt Belisle, whom the Cards hope will follow the Neshek rejuvenation path, after posting a 4.87 ERA in 2014.

The Cardinals will also return groundball specialist Seth Maness, along with lefties Randy Choate (4.50 ERA) and Sam Freeman (2.61 ERA), although Choate may be on the trading block.

Overall, this is the one area where I think the Cards may have taken a step back, especially if Martinez earns a starting rotation spot.  Replacing Neshek and Martinez with Walden and possibly Belisle is definitely a downgrade and, even if Martinez returns to the bullpen, the Cardinals may have only 3-4 reliable bullpen arms.  I would love to see Mo add at least one more proven guy to the pen.

Based on all of the above, I think the Cards should be improved over last year, but there are still concerns surrounding the bullpen.  As we saw last year, when the Cardinals bullpen went 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA in the LCS compared to the Giants 3-1, 1.69 performance, a good bullpen can make all the difference.

What is the long-term (and short-term) impact of the Cardinals acquisition of Jason Heyward from the Braves.

In case you missed it, the Cardinals made a big move today, acquiring Jason Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins.

GM John Mozeliak let it be known that the Cards were looking to find an upgrade for their right field spot, after the loss of Oscar Taveras left them with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty as their only internal options, and Mo did not wait long to make a move.

Let's look at the impact of this move on the Cardinals both in the short term and long term.

Short Term

Heyward will immediately step in as the Cards starting right fielder, meaning that Grichuk will likely serve as the team's 4th (or 5th) outfielder.  Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Heyward will be the starting trio in the outfield, with Peter Bourjos and Grichuk serving as backups. 

Heyward is widely considered an excellent right fielder, having won two Gold Gloves, including just recently winning the 2014 award.  He has some pop, hitting as many as 27 home runs in a season (in 2012), but his power has waned in recent years, as he hit just 11 homers in 2014 and had a .384 slugging percentage.  Given that he is just 25 years old, he could still regain his power stroke.  However, even if he doesn't his defense and his speed (20 stolen bases while being caught only 4 times in 2014) still make him a valuable player and a nice addition to the 2015 lineup.

On the pitching side, losing Miller hurts, but the addition of Walden could allow the Cardinals to slide Carlos Martinez into Miller's rotation spot, with Walden serving as the setup man.  Marco Gonzales is another possibility and the team might decide to go with him instead if only to allow them to keep Martinez and his power arm in the pen.

Much could depend on whether the Cards bring in another reliever (or two) this offseason, to offset the losses of Pat Neshek and Jason Motte.

Overall, I like this move from a 2015 standpoint, as the offense (and defense) should be better with the addition of Heyward, while the pitching should not skip a beat, as the combination of Martinez and Gonzales should make up for the loss of Miller and Walden should help in the bullpen.

Long Term

Here's where things could swing in the Braves favor.

A lot depends on whether the Cardinals can sign Heyward to an extension.  He is only under contract through the 2015 season and if he leaves for free agency, the Cards will be left with just Walden. 

The Braves on the other hand, will have 4 more years of Miller (including the 2015 season) and 6 years of Jenkins.

After a great rookie year, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting, Miller struggled in 2014.  He was inconsistent for most of the year and saw his ERA rise to 3.74, while his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) decreased from 8.8 in 2013 to 6.2 in 2014.  He is only 23 and certainly has the ability and stuff to bounce back, but there were some concerns about Miller after he didn't pitch in the 2013 postseason and the Cards seem to have been shopping him for a while.

Jenkins, of course, is the real wildcard here.  In 5 minor league seasons, he has yet to pitch above A ball, mainly due to injuries.  However, he had a good showing in 2014 at high A Palm Beach (3.28 ERA in 74 IP).  He was rated as high as the Cardinals #8 prospect by Baseball America, prior to the 2013 season, but fell to the #17 slot prior to 2014.  He's still got a live arm, throwing in the mid-90's, but needs to prove he can stay healthy.

Overall, I like this trade.  Yes, we may lose Heyward after the 2015 season, but the Cardinals have shown the ability to retain players they have acquired via trade in the past (Matt Holliday being the most recent example).  There are questions surrounding Miller, as there are with Heyward, but the Cards are still getting 2 proven major leaguers for one somewhat shaky starter and a prospect.