OK, so the Cardinals didn't have what it takes to win the World Series this year. Although I'm older and not as deeply invested in the Cards like I was as a kid, it still stings a little.
With that said, here are some quick closing thoughts on the World Series and the Cardinals in general, as their season comes to an end:
Michael Wacha is human
Despite such heroic efforts throughout the postseason, Wacha couldn't keep the Red Sox at bay tonight, giving up 6 runs in 3.2 innings, although two of those runs came around to score after Wacha had left the game.
Still, it was a pretty good postseason for the youngster, with a 4-1 record and a 2.64 ERA. If you include the regular season, Wacha went 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 95.1 innings.
He should be a lock for the starting rotation next season and for years to come.
The Cardinals bats went silent
Although the Cardinals managed 9 hits on the night, they were only able to score 1 run in the game. They hit a paltry .224 for the series with just 14 runs in the 6 games (2.3 per game).
In the last 3 games, the Cardinals managed only 4 runs. You aren't going to win many games that way, no matter who is pitching.
Trevor Rosenthal will be the Cardinals closer in 2014
Rosenthal had a dominant postseason, allowing zero runs in 10.2 innings while striking out 17. He was 1-0 with 4 saves and has pretty much locked up the closer job for 2014.
Jason Motte will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery to start next season and Edward Mujica probably earned himself a big paycheck elsewhere, so the job is Rosenthal's to lose.
He could become the right handed version of the Reds' Aroldis Chapman.
Will Carlos Martinez be a starter or a reliever?
After spending the entire postseason in the pen, it remains to be seen what the long term plan is for Carlos Martinez.
It would be a shame to waste a talent like his in a bullpen role, as he could add much more value as a starter in the Pedro Martinez mold.
However, with so many starters vying for the top 5 spots, it may require a trade or an injury for him to crack the rotation.
Good News/Bad News
The good news is that the Cardinals will have a young and formidable nucleus to build around for years to come.
Headlined by youngsters Wacha, Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, along with veterans Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay, the Cardinals should once again be a championship caliber team next year.
The bad news is that the Red Sox will still have David Ortiz and Jon Lester (if they pick up his option) next year.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
What have we learned so far from the 2013 World Series?
Thanks to FOX and the World Series, I have finally gotten a chance to regularly watch the Cardinals up here in Chicagoland.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Cardinals need Michael Wacha to come through again tonight
After game one of the World Series, in which the Cardinals seemed to sleep walk through the game, making several mental (and physical) errors, the Cards need a wake-up call.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Tuesday, October 22, 2013
World Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox
With the World Series set to start tomorrow in Boston, its time for the obligatory World Series Preview and Predictions. So far I'm 2-0 in my predictions (or maybe its 1.5-0.5, since I predicted the Cardinals to win the NLCS in 7), primarily because I'm a homer and would never predict against the Cards.
Here is how I see these two teams stacking up:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Molina is a superior player to Saltalamacchia both offensively and defensively, but the real question here is whether Molina can shut down Boston's running game--the Red Sox stole 123 bases this season, while only being caught 19 times (87%).
Molina threw out 43% of would be base stealers this season and will need to hold the Red Sox in check.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Mike Napoli
This is a pretty close matchup with Napoli's .842 OPS just slightly better than Adams' .839. Throw in the fact that Napoli has more experience, including playing against the Cardinals in the 2011 World Series (with the Rangers) and you have to give him the nod.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Dustin Pedroia
While Pedroia is no slouch, Carpenter had a breakout year for the Cardinals, with a .873 OPS compared to Dustin's .787 OPS.
After going just 1 for 19 in the NLDS, Carpenter heated up in the NLCS, hitting .261 for the series. If he can keep that going in the World Series, the Cardinals will put a lot of crooked numbers on the board.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso vs Stephen Drew
Kozma is a good field/no-hit type shortstop who is sometimes replaced by Descalso when the Cardinals are looking for more offense. Drew had a resurgent year in 2013, hitting .253 with 13 homers after hitting just .223 in 2012.
Kozma is probably the better defender of the two, but Drew is not incompetent with the glove and his offense is definitely better than Kozma's.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Third Base: David Freese vs Will Middlebrooks
While Freese had a down year, compared to his 2012 season, his OPS of .721 is still better than Middlebrooks' .696 OPS. Xander Bogaerts might also be used at third by the Red Sox, but the rookie only posted a .684 OPS in 44 at bats in the majors.
Middlebrooks showed more power during the season, hitting 17 homers to Freese's 9, but Freese has more World Series experience, winning the MVP in 2011.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Jonny Gomes
Holliday just keeps putting up quality stats year-in and year-out. His .879 OPS led the Cardinals and is over 100 points better than Gomes' .771.
Holliday has the postseason experience to go with it and about the only thing Gomes may have going for him is being better defensively.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: Jon Jay vs Jacoby Ellsbury
Ellsbury is the offensive catalyst for the Red Sox, leading off and wreaking havoc on the base paths. He led the majors with 52 stolen bases while only getting caught 4 times (93%).
Jay bounced back from a slow start to put up decent numbers this year (.721 OPS), but he just doesn't stack up against Ellsbury.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs. Shane Victorino
Beltran is having another great postseason, with 12 rbi's in 11 postseason games. While Victorino had the big hit, a grand slam in game 6 to win the series, he hit just .125 against Detroit.
Beltran owns the better OPS for the season (.830 to Victorino's .801) and has more power.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
DH: Allen Craig vs David Ortiz
After missing the NLDS and NLCS, Craig is expected to return to the Cardinals lineup for the World Series. If he can shake off the rust, his presence will give the Cards a big lift offensively, as his 97 rbi's led the Cardinals and his .454 average with RISP led the majors.
Ortiz is one of the best right handed power hitters of all time and is one of the few Red Sox players with significant World Series experience, having been there in 2004 and 2007.
Had Craig been healthy, this would be a close call, but given that he is coming off an injury and Ortiz is a monster at the plate, I have to go with Ortiz.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals will go with the foursome of Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78), Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69) and Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97), while the Red Sox will likely counter with John Lester (15-8, 3.75), Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74), John Lackey (10-13, 3.52) and Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17).
Its hard to make comparisons between the two staffs and they pitch in different leagues and they have not faced each other this season. However, there are some intriguing matchups.
Wainwright will square off against Lester in game one. Given the Cardinals struggles against lefties this season, one could give the advantage to the Red Sox here, but the Cards also managed to beat the best lefty in the game, Clayton Kershaw, twice in the NLCS, so its not a given.
Wacha against Buchholz is also an intriguing matchup in game 2, as Buchholz had a stellar season, while Wacha has been dominating in the postseason. I would have to give the edge here to the Cardinals.
Beyond that, Kelly and Lynn matchup well against Lackey and Peavy, so it will just be a case of who pitches better on that given day.
Overall, I would give the Cardinals the edge here, as they have posted a 2.57 ERA compared to the Red Sox starters' 4.29 ERA in the postseason.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Bullpen
The Cardinals have been relying heavily on rookies Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 3 saves, 2.65 ERA), Carlos Martinez (2-1, 5.08), Kevin Siegrist (3-1, 0.45) and Seth Maness (5-2, 2.32) in the postseason, while the Red Sox have a veteran trio of Koji Uehara (4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA), Junichi Tazawa (5-4, 3.16) and Craig Breslow (5-2, 1.81) leading the way.
While the Cardinals bullpen has been good this postseason (1.80 ERA in 30 innings), the Red Sox bullpen has been outstanding (0.84 ERA in 32 innings).
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Bench
The Cardinals bench will likely feature Allen Craig, when he's not DH-ing, along with seldom used Shane Robinson, Daniel Descalso and Tony Cruz. Other than Craig, there's no one that will strike fear in opposing pitchers.
The Red Sox will likely have either Ortiz or Napoli, when they're in St. Louis, along with Daniel Nava (.831 OPS), Mike Carp (.885 OPS) and the aforementioned Bogaerts. They're deeper and pack more punch than what the Cards have to offer.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Intangibles
This is the Cardinals second appearance in the World Series in the last 3 years, while the Red Sox are making their first WS appearance since 2007.
This is the first World Series appearance for both Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and Red Sox manager John Farrell.
Finally, the Red Sox have the home field advantage, thanks to the stupid All-Star game rule and did not lose a home game in either the 2004 or 2007 World Series.
Overall, the Cardinals experience is offset by the Red Sox home field advantage.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Overall
Based on the above, you would expect a close series, with the teams evenly matched at 6-6-1. I think the Cardinals have the better lineup and starting pitching, but the Red Sox have the better bullpen and bench. If the games are close heading into the late innings, it could give the Red Sox the advantage. However, I think the Cardinals will jump on the Red Sox starters early and often, taking the bullpen and bench out of the equation.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 6
Here is how I see these two teams stacking up:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Jarrod Saltalamacchia
Molina is a superior player to Saltalamacchia both offensively and defensively, but the real question here is whether Molina can shut down Boston's running game--the Red Sox stole 123 bases this season, while only being caught 19 times (87%).
Molina threw out 43% of would be base stealers this season and will need to hold the Red Sox in check.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Mike Napoli
This is a pretty close matchup with Napoli's .842 OPS just slightly better than Adams' .839. Throw in the fact that Napoli has more experience, including playing against the Cardinals in the 2011 World Series (with the Rangers) and you have to give him the nod.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Dustin Pedroia
While Pedroia is no slouch, Carpenter had a breakout year for the Cardinals, with a .873 OPS compared to Dustin's .787 OPS.
After going just 1 for 19 in the NLDS, Carpenter heated up in the NLCS, hitting .261 for the series. If he can keep that going in the World Series, the Cardinals will put a lot of crooked numbers on the board.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso vs Stephen Drew
Kozma is a good field/no-hit type shortstop who is sometimes replaced by Descalso when the Cardinals are looking for more offense. Drew had a resurgent year in 2013, hitting .253 with 13 homers after hitting just .223 in 2012.
Kozma is probably the better defender of the two, but Drew is not incompetent with the glove and his offense is definitely better than Kozma's.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Third Base: David Freese vs Will Middlebrooks
While Freese had a down year, compared to his 2012 season, his OPS of .721 is still better than Middlebrooks' .696 OPS. Xander Bogaerts might also be used at third by the Red Sox, but the rookie only posted a .684 OPS in 44 at bats in the majors.
Middlebrooks showed more power during the season, hitting 17 homers to Freese's 9, but Freese has more World Series experience, winning the MVP in 2011.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Jonny Gomes
Holliday just keeps putting up quality stats year-in and year-out. His .879 OPS led the Cardinals and is over 100 points better than Gomes' .771.
Holliday has the postseason experience to go with it and about the only thing Gomes may have going for him is being better defensively.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: Jon Jay vs Jacoby Ellsbury
Ellsbury is the offensive catalyst for the Red Sox, leading off and wreaking havoc on the base paths. He led the majors with 52 stolen bases while only getting caught 4 times (93%).
Jay bounced back from a slow start to put up decent numbers this year (.721 OPS), but he just doesn't stack up against Ellsbury.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs. Shane Victorino
Beltran is having another great postseason, with 12 rbi's in 11 postseason games. While Victorino had the big hit, a grand slam in game 6 to win the series, he hit just .125 against Detroit.
Beltran owns the better OPS for the season (.830 to Victorino's .801) and has more power.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
DH: Allen Craig vs David Ortiz
After missing the NLDS and NLCS, Craig is expected to return to the Cardinals lineup for the World Series. If he can shake off the rust, his presence will give the Cards a big lift offensively, as his 97 rbi's led the Cardinals and his .454 average with RISP led the majors.
Ortiz is one of the best right handed power hitters of all time and is one of the few Red Sox players with significant World Series experience, having been there in 2004 and 2007.
Had Craig been healthy, this would be a close call, but given that he is coming off an injury and Ortiz is a monster at the plate, I have to go with Ortiz.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals will go with the foursome of Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78), Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69) and Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97), while the Red Sox will likely counter with John Lester (15-8, 3.75), Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74), John Lackey (10-13, 3.52) and Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17).
Its hard to make comparisons between the two staffs and they pitch in different leagues and they have not faced each other this season. However, there are some intriguing matchups.
Wainwright will square off against Lester in game one. Given the Cardinals struggles against lefties this season, one could give the advantage to the Red Sox here, but the Cards also managed to beat the best lefty in the game, Clayton Kershaw, twice in the NLCS, so its not a given.
Wacha against Buchholz is also an intriguing matchup in game 2, as Buchholz had a stellar season, while Wacha has been dominating in the postseason. I would have to give the edge here to the Cardinals.
Beyond that, Kelly and Lynn matchup well against Lackey and Peavy, so it will just be a case of who pitches better on that given day.
Overall, I would give the Cardinals the edge here, as they have posted a 2.57 ERA compared to the Red Sox starters' 4.29 ERA in the postseason.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Bullpen
The Cardinals have been relying heavily on rookies Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 3 saves, 2.65 ERA), Carlos Martinez (2-1, 5.08), Kevin Siegrist (3-1, 0.45) and Seth Maness (5-2, 2.32) in the postseason, while the Red Sox have a veteran trio of Koji Uehara (4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA), Junichi Tazawa (5-4, 3.16) and Craig Breslow (5-2, 1.81) leading the way.
While the Cardinals bullpen has been good this postseason (1.80 ERA in 30 innings), the Red Sox bullpen has been outstanding (0.84 ERA in 32 innings).
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Bench
The Cardinals bench will likely feature Allen Craig, when he's not DH-ing, along with seldom used Shane Robinson, Daniel Descalso and Tony Cruz. Other than Craig, there's no one that will strike fear in opposing pitchers.
The Red Sox will likely have either Ortiz or Napoli, when they're in St. Louis, along with Daniel Nava (.831 OPS), Mike Carp (.885 OPS) and the aforementioned Bogaerts. They're deeper and pack more punch than what the Cards have to offer.
ADVANTAGE: RED SOX
Intangibles
This is the Cardinals second appearance in the World Series in the last 3 years, while the Red Sox are making their first WS appearance since 2007.
This is the first World Series appearance for both Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and Red Sox manager John Farrell.
Finally, the Red Sox have the home field advantage, thanks to the stupid All-Star game rule and did not lose a home game in either the 2004 or 2007 World Series.
Overall, the Cardinals experience is offset by the Red Sox home field advantage.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Overall
Based on the above, you would expect a close series, with the teams evenly matched at 6-6-1. I think the Cardinals have the better lineup and starting pitching, but the Red Sox have the better bullpen and bench. If the games are close heading into the late innings, it could give the Red Sox the advantage. However, I think the Cardinals will jump on the Red Sox starters early and often, taking the bullpen and bench out of the equation.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 6
Monday, October 21, 2013
What would the Cardinals look like if they had resigned Albert Pujols?
With the Cardinals in the World Series and the Los Angeles Angels not even making the playoffs, its easy to say that the Cards made the right decision in letting Pujols walk after the 2011 season. Scott Miller of CBS Sports basically says that the Cardinals are better off without Pujols, and I tend to agree with him.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
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