World Series Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Boston Red Sox

With the World Series set to start tomorrow in Boston, its time for the obligatory World Series Preview and Predictions.  So far I'm 2-0 in my predictions (or maybe its 1.5-0.5, since I predicted the Cardinals to win the NLCS in 7), primarily because I'm a homer and would never predict against the Cards.

Here is how I see these two teams stacking up:

Catcher:  Yadier Molina vs Jarrod Saltalamacchia

Molina is a superior player to Saltalamacchia both offensively and defensively, but the real question here is whether Molina can shut down Boston's running game--the Red Sox stole 123 bases this season, while only being caught 19 times (87%).

Molina threw out 43% of would be base stealers this season and will need to hold the Red Sox in check.

ADVANTAGE:  CARDINALS

First Base:  Matt Adams vs Mike Napoli

This is a pretty close matchup with Napoli's .842 OPS just slightly better than Adams' .839.  Throw in the fact that Napoli has more experience, including playing against the Cardinals in the 2011 World Series (with the Rangers) and you have to give him the nod.

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Second Base:  Matt Carpenter vs Dustin Pedroia

While Pedroia is no slouch, Carpenter had a breakout year for the Cardinals, with a .873 OPS compared to Dustin's .787 OPS.

After going just 1 for 19 in the NLDS, Carpenter heated up in the NLCS, hitting .261 for the series.  If he can keep that going in the World Series, the Cardinals will put a lot of crooked numbers on the board.

ADVANTAGE:  CARDINALS

Shortstop:  Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso vs Stephen Drew

Kozma is a good field/no-hit type shortstop who is sometimes replaced by Descalso when the Cardinals are looking for more offense.  Drew had a resurgent year in 2013, hitting .253 with 13 homers after hitting just .223 in 2012.

Kozma is probably the better defender of the two, but Drew is not incompetent with the glove and his offense is definitely better than Kozma's.

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Third Base:  David Freese vs Will Middlebrooks

While Freese had a down year, compared to his 2012 season, his OPS of .721 is still better than Middlebrooks' .696 OPS.  Xander Bogaerts might also be used at third by the Red Sox, but the rookie only posted a .684 OPS in 44 at bats in the majors.

Middlebrooks showed more power during the season, hitting 17 homers to Freese's 9, but Freese has more World Series experience, winning the MVP in 2011.

ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS

Left Field:  Matt Holliday vs Jonny Gomes

Holliday just keeps putting up quality stats year-in and year-out.  His .879 OPS led the Cardinals and is over 100 points better than Gomes' .771.

Holliday has the postseason experience to go with it and about the only thing Gomes may have going for him is being better defensively.

ADVANTAGE:  CARDINALS

Center Field:  Jon Jay vs Jacoby Ellsbury

Ellsbury is the offensive catalyst for the Red Sox, leading off and wreaking havoc on the base paths.  He led the majors with 52 stolen bases while only getting caught 4 times (93%).

Jay bounced back from a slow start to put up decent numbers this year (.721 OPS), but he just doesn't stack up against Ellsbury.

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Right Field:  Carlos Beltran vs. Shane Victorino

Beltran is having another great postseason, with 12 rbi's in 11 postseason games.  While Victorino had the big hit, a grand slam in game 6 to win the series, he hit just .125 against Detroit.

Beltran owns the better OPS for the season (.830 to Victorino's .801) and has more power.

ADVANTAGE:  CARDINALS

DH:  Allen Craig vs David Ortiz

After missing the NLDS and NLCS, Craig is expected to return to the Cardinals lineup for the World Series.  If he can shake off the rust, his presence will give the Cards a big lift offensively, as his 97 rbi's led the Cardinals and his .454 average with RISP led the majors.

Ortiz is one of the best right handed power hitters of all time and is one of the few Red Sox players with significant World Series experience, having been there in 2004 and 2007.

Had Craig been healthy, this would be a close call, but given that he is coming off an injury and Ortiz is a monster at the plate, I have to go with Ortiz.

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Starting Pitching

The Cardinals will go with the foursome of Adam Wainwright (19-9, 2.94), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78), Joe Kelly (10-5, 2.69) and Lance Lynn (15-10, 3.97), while the Red Sox will likely counter with John Lester (15-8, 3.75), Clay Buchholz (12-1, 1.74), John Lackey (10-13, 3.52) and Jake Peavy (12-5, 4.17).

Its hard to make comparisons between the two staffs and they pitch in different leagues and they have not faced each other this season.  However, there are some intriguing matchups.

Wainwright will square off against Lester in game one.  Given the Cardinals struggles against lefties this season, one could give the advantage to the Red Sox here, but the Cards also managed to beat the best lefty in the game, Clayton Kershaw, twice in the NLCS, so its not a given.

Wacha against Buchholz is also an intriguing matchup in game 2, as Buchholz had a stellar season, while Wacha has been dominating in the postseason.  I would have to give the edge here to the Cardinals.

Beyond that, Kelly and Lynn matchup well against Lackey and Peavy, so it will just be a case of who pitches better on that given day.


Overall, I would give the Cardinals the edge here, as they have posted a 2.57 ERA compared to the Red Sox starters' 4.29 ERA in the postseason.

ADVANTAGE:  CARDINALS

Bullpen

The Cardinals have been relying heavily on rookies Trevor Rosenthal (2-4, 3 saves, 2.65 ERA), Carlos Martinez (2-1, 5.08), Kevin Siegrist (3-1, 0.45) and Seth Maness (5-2, 2.32) in the postseason, while the Red Sox have a veteran trio of Koji Uehara (4-1, 21 saves, 1.09 ERA), Junichi Tazawa (5-4, 3.16) and Craig Breslow (5-2, 1.81) leading the way.

While the Cardinals bullpen has been good this postseason (1.80 ERA in 30 innings), the Red Sox bullpen has been outstanding (0.84 ERA in 32 innings).

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Bench

The Cardinals bench will likely feature Allen Craig, when he's not DH-ing, along with seldom used Shane Robinson, Daniel Descalso and Tony Cruz.  Other than Craig, there's no one that will strike fear in opposing pitchers.

The Red Sox will likely have either Ortiz or Napoli, when they're in St. Louis, along with Daniel Nava (.831 OPS), Mike Carp (.885 OPS) and the aforementioned Bogaerts.  They're deeper and pack more punch than what the Cards have to offer.

ADVANTAGE:  RED SOX

Intangibles

This is the Cardinals second appearance in the World Series in the last 3 years, while the Red Sox are making their first WS appearance since 2007.

This is the first World Series appearance for both Cardinals manager Mike Matheny and Red Sox manager John Farrell.

Finally, the Red Sox have the home field advantage, thanks to the stupid All-Star game rule and did not lose a home game in either the 2004 or 2007 World Series.

Overall, the Cardinals experience is offset by the Red Sox home field advantage.

ADVANTAGE:  PUSH

Overall

Based on the above, you would expect a close series, with the teams evenly matched at 6-6-1.  I think the Cardinals have the better lineup and starting pitching, but the Red Sox have the better bullpen and bench.  If the games are close heading into the late innings, it could give the Red Sox the advantage.  However, I think the Cardinals will jump on the Red Sox starters early and often, taking the bullpen and bench out of the equation.

PREDICTION:  CARDINALS IN 6