Ozzie Smith retired from baseball in 1996 after 15 seasons with the Cardinals. During that time, he won 11 Gold Gloves and was voted to the All Star Team 14 years.
In the 16 years since his retirement, the Cardinals have had 6 different shortstops (Royce Clayton, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan and Rafael Furcal) and, other than Edgar Renteria's 6 years, none has spent more than 3 years at the helm.
I understand that in this day and age, it is difficult to develop and retain a player. Renteria, the best of the bunch, left the Cardinals for greener pastures after the 2004 season. Whereas the other players were either traded (Clayton, Ryan) or allowed to leave via free agency (Izturis, Eckstein) and chances are Furcal will join the latter group.
The cheapest way for the Cardinals to find an heir to Ozzie's throne would be via the draft, whereas the Cards can control the rights of the player for several years at a below market rate. However, the Cardinals have already tried this route twice, drafting Tyler Greene in the first round (30th overall) in the 2005 draft and selecting Pete Kozma 18th overall in the 2007 draft.
Greene never panned out for the Cards, hitting .218/.295/.329 in 495 at bats over 4 years before being traded to the Astros. Kozma doesn't look much better, despite his strong September and postseason, as his .236/.308/.344 career line in the minors hints that his performance was a small sample size fluke.
So, with Furcal likely gone after this season, where can the Cardinals turn to fill the gap?
One option is free agency. However, a quick look at the potential free agent list for 2014 reveals a bunch of players on the wrong side of 30. Yeah, you could take a chance on someone like Yunel Escobar or Stephen Drew, but they are not a long-term solution.
The best bet is to trade for a young, major league ready shortstop. This is where the Texas Rangers come in. The Rangers have two young shortstops in Elvis Andrus and top prospect Jurickson Profar and it seems likely that they would move one of the two to fill a hole elsewhere.
One such hole is starting pitching. The Rangers have been searching for starting pitching all offseason, pursuing the likes of Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, before they signed elsewhere, and recent reports indicate that the Rangers are looking more at trades than free agency to improve their team at this point.
The Cardinals have an abundance of young pitching that they could offer, including Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha. It seems, on paper at least, that the two sides could work something out.
However, despite Buster Olney's speculation that the Rangers would likely trade Andrus this offseason, the Diamondbacks tried unsuccessfully to land either Andrus or Profar for Justin Upton, before settling for Didi Gregorious in a 3 team trade involving their top pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer.
So, could the Cardinals pry either one away from the Rangers? Probably, but it will be costly. I'm guessing it would take at least Lynn and one of the other 4 youngsters to land Andrus. Profar may be a little cheaper in terms of prospects, as he is as still unproven, but he is generally considered the top prospect in the game and would still likely require two young pitchers in return.
A trade like that would put a big dent in the Cards pitching depth. But, if it fills the Cardinals hole at short for the next 10 years, it would be worth it.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Projecting the Cardinals future lineups
So far its been a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals. They traded Skip Schumaker to Los Angeles for minor leaguer Jake Lemmerman, signed Ty Wigginton to replace him on the bench and added left Randy Choate to the bullpen.
Nothing awe inspiring there, but then again, when you are a playoff team and will have your former ace, Chris Carpenter, back for a full season, big moves are not necessary.
Thus, with it unlikely that the Cards will make any big moves, lets take an early look at the 2013 projected lineup as well as future years.
2013
With no major changes this offseason, the 2013 lineup will look a lot like the 2012 version. The main question being who will play second. Daniel Descalso is the incumbent, but Matt Carpenter is working on playing second this offseason as the Cards hope to get his bat in the lineup.
The other question mark is the health of Rafael Furcal. He was the leadoff hitter for the Cards, when healthy, but his health concerns and deteriorating skills probably necessitate a move towards the bottom of the lineup.
With that said, here is how I see the 2013 lineup:
After the 2013 season, two players will likely reach free agency, Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal. Its unlikely that the Cards will resign Furcal, as there is not much left in his tank. Beltran will be a more difficult decision, as he has put up excellent numbers with the Cards. However, with Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings and Beltran not getting any younger, the Cardinals will probably decide to let him walk and use the $13 million savings to shore up other areas of need.
The other possible change is that Kolten Wong will be ready to take over at second base after spending the 2013 season at AAA. Wong would be an upgrade defensively from Carpenter, but would likely be a downgrade offensively. It will be interesting to see who wins out, but, assuming that Carpenter has a decent year offensively in 2012, its likely he will hold on to the job.
Assuming the Cardinals fill these holes in house with Pete Kozma and Taveras, the 2014 will look pretty similar to 2013, with Carpenter likely moving up to the #2 spot (so as to not put too much pressure on Taveras), which would give us the following 2014 lineup:
David Freese will be a free agent after the 2015 season and, as he will be 32 by that point, the Cards may decide to let him go and move Carpenter to his more natural third base position. This will allow Kolten Wong to get his first taste of full time action at second.
The other players will remain, with some possible shifts in the order, as Holliday will be 36 by then and may be showing signs of age, but will likely still retain his excellent OBP skills, and Taveras may be coming into his own offensively, which may cause Mike Matheny to flip-flop them in the lineup.
Thus, this could be the Cards lineup for 2016:
With many of the core players under team control for several years and some quality prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals should not have to pursue any big name free agents on the offensive side. The only area of concern is that of short stop, where Furcal is an injury risk for 2013 and Kozma does not have the minor league track record to indicate that he is worthy of the starting gig.
The Cards could pursue a shortstop via trade (or even free agency), most likely after the 2013 season, which could change the shape of the 2014-2016 lineups. If they get a leadoff type hitter at short, they could move Jay to the #2 spot and push Carpenter down to the 7th or 8th spot.
The bottom line is that, however way you look at it, the Cards should have a good offense for years.
Nothing awe inspiring there, but then again, when you are a playoff team and will have your former ace, Chris Carpenter, back for a full season, big moves are not necessary.
Thus, with it unlikely that the Cards will make any big moves, lets take an early look at the 2013 projected lineup as well as future years.
2013
With no major changes this offseason, the 2013 lineup will look a lot like the 2012 version. The main question being who will play second. Daniel Descalso is the incumbent, but Matt Carpenter is working on playing second this offseason as the Cards hope to get his bat in the lineup.
The other question mark is the health of Rafael Furcal. He was the leadoff hitter for the Cards, when healthy, but his health concerns and deteriorating skills probably necessitate a move towards the bottom of the lineup.
With that said, here is how I see the 2013 lineup:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Carlos Beltran, RF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Rafael Furcal, SS
- Pitcher
After the 2013 season, two players will likely reach free agency, Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal. Its unlikely that the Cards will resign Furcal, as there is not much left in his tank. Beltran will be a more difficult decision, as he has put up excellent numbers with the Cards. However, with Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings and Beltran not getting any younger, the Cardinals will probably decide to let him walk and use the $13 million savings to shore up other areas of need.
The other possible change is that Kolten Wong will be ready to take over at second base after spending the 2013 season at AAA. Wong would be an upgrade defensively from Carpenter, but would likely be a downgrade offensively. It will be interesting to see who wins out, but, assuming that Carpenter has a decent year offensively in 2012, its likely he will hold on to the job.
Assuming the Cardinals fill these holes in house with Pete Kozma and Taveras, the 2014 will look pretty similar to 2013, with Carpenter likely moving up to the #2 spot (so as to not put too much pressure on Taveras), which would give us the following 2014 lineup:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
- Jon Jay, CF
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Carpenter/Kolten Wong, 2B
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
David Freese will be a free agent after the 2015 season and, as he will be 32 by that point, the Cards may decide to let him go and move Carpenter to his more natural third base position. This will allow Kolten Wong to get his first taste of full time action at second.
The other players will remain, with some possible shifts in the order, as Holliday will be 36 by then and may be showing signs of age, but will likely still retain his excellent OBP skills, and Taveras may be coming into his own offensively, which may cause Mike Matheny to flip-flop them in the lineup.
Thus, this could be the Cards lineup for 2016:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
With many of the core players under team control for several years and some quality prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals should not have to pursue any big name free agents on the offensive side. The only area of concern is that of short stop, where Furcal is an injury risk for 2013 and Kozma does not have the minor league track record to indicate that he is worthy of the starting gig.
The Cards could pursue a shortstop via trade (or even free agency), most likely after the 2013 season, which could change the shape of the 2014-2016 lineups. If they get a leadoff type hitter at short, they could move Jay to the #2 spot and push Carpenter down to the 7th or 8th spot.
The bottom line is that, however way you look at it, the Cards should have a good offense for years.
Subscribe to:
Posts (Atom)
