Nothing awe inspiring there, but then again, when you are a playoff team and will have your former ace, Chris Carpenter, back for a full season, big moves are not necessary.
Thus, with it unlikely that the Cards will make any big moves, lets take an early look at the 2013 projected lineup as well as future years.
2013
With no major changes this offseason, the 2013 lineup will look a lot like the 2012 version. The main question being who will play second. Daniel Descalso is the incumbent, but Matt Carpenter is working on playing second this offseason as the Cards hope to get his bat in the lineup.
The other question mark is the health of Rafael Furcal. He was the leadoff hitter for the Cards, when healthy, but his health concerns and deteriorating skills probably necessitate a move towards the bottom of the lineup.
With that said, here is how I see the 2013 lineup:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Carlos Beltran, RF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Rafael Furcal, SS
- Pitcher
After the 2013 season, two players will likely reach free agency, Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal. Its unlikely that the Cards will resign Furcal, as there is not much left in his tank. Beltran will be a more difficult decision, as he has put up excellent numbers with the Cards. However, with Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings and Beltran not getting any younger, the Cardinals will probably decide to let him walk and use the $13 million savings to shore up other areas of need.
The other possible change is that Kolten Wong will be ready to take over at second base after spending the 2013 season at AAA. Wong would be an upgrade defensively from Carpenter, but would likely be a downgrade offensively. It will be interesting to see who wins out, but, assuming that Carpenter has a decent year offensively in 2012, its likely he will hold on to the job.
Assuming the Cardinals fill these holes in house with Pete Kozma and Taveras, the 2014 will look pretty similar to 2013, with Carpenter likely moving up to the #2 spot (so as to not put too much pressure on Taveras), which would give us the following 2014 lineup:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
- Jon Jay, CF
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Carpenter/Kolten Wong, 2B
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
David Freese will be a free agent after the 2015 season and, as he will be 32 by that point, the Cards may decide to let him go and move Carpenter to his more natural third base position. This will allow Kolten Wong to get his first taste of full time action at second.
The other players will remain, with some possible shifts in the order, as Holliday will be 36 by then and may be showing signs of age, but will likely still retain his excellent OBP skills, and Taveras may be coming into his own offensively, which may cause Mike Matheny to flip-flop them in the lineup.
Thus, this could be the Cards lineup for 2016:
- Jon Jay, CF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Oscar Taveras, RF
- Allen Craig, 1B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Pete Kozma, SS
- Pitcher
With many of the core players under team control for several years and some quality prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals should not have to pursue any big name free agents on the offensive side. The only area of concern is that of short stop, where Furcal is an injury risk for 2013 and Kozma does not have the minor league track record to indicate that he is worthy of the starting gig.
The Cards could pursue a shortstop via trade (or even free agency), most likely after the 2013 season, which could change the shape of the 2014-2016 lineups. If they get a leadoff type hitter at short, they could move Jay to the #2 spot and push Carpenter down to the 7th or 8th spot.
The bottom line is that, however way you look at it, the Cards should have a good offense for years.
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