Projecting the Cardinals future starting rotations

If there is one thing the Cardinals do not lack heading into the 2013 season, its starting pitching depth.  Despite the loss of Kyle Lohse, who led the team in ERA (2.86), starts (33) and innings (211), while finishing second in wins, the Cards return 5 starters who made at least 16 starts in 2012.

In addition, former ace Chris Carpenter, who made a surprising return from thoracic outlet syndrome late last season, should be ready from the get go this season.  And, as if that wasn't enough, the Cardinals have no less than 4 quality pitching prospects waiting in the wings.

So, how will the Cards handle this abundance of riches?  Well, I will attempt to get into the minds of the Cardinals' brass to sort through that very issue for 2013 and beyond.

2013

Barring any surprising moves before opening day, the Cardinals rotation is pretty much set for 2013.

Adam Wainwright will be the ace of the staff, followed by Chris Carpenter, Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook.  The only question is who will fill the 5th spot.  Lance Lynn, who led the Cards with 18 wins last year, is the favorite to garner the last spot in the rotation, but rookies Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal, as well as Joe Kelly, who posted a 3.53 ERA in 107 IP last year, will also vie for the last spot.

My best guess is that Lynn will retain the 5th spot, with Miller and Rosenthal returning to AAA for more seasoning and Kelly manning the long relief spot in the pen.

Thus, your 2013 rotation will look like this:

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Jake Westbrook
5. Lance Lynn

2014-2016

After the 2013 season, the Cardinals currently have 3 pitchers who can become free agents: Wainwright, Carpenter and Westbrook.  Early indications are that its likely that the Cardinals will work out an extension for Wainwright, but its also likely that they'll let Carpenter and Westbrook walk.

Thus, the Cards will have two openings in their rotation for 2014.  There will be a heated battle for those two spots between prospects Miller, Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez, Michael Wacha and Kelly, with Miller and Rosenthal the projected winners.  Martinez and Wacha will be relegated to AAA and Kelly will stay in the pen.

Assuming that Wainwright's extension is at least 3 years, all of the above pitchers will be under team control through at least 2016, with the Cards holding options on the lone exception, Jaime Garcia, for 2016 and 2017. 

So, for 2014-2016, the rotation should shape up like this:

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Jaime Garcia
3. Lance Lynn
4. Shelby Miller
5. Trevor Rosenthal

Of course, with the abundance of starting pitching, the Cardinals could decide to trade some of their excess to shore up other areas, such as shortstop.  The Cardinals have as many as 8 potential starters, which does not include lower level prospects Tyrell Jenkins or Jordan Swagerty (recovering from Tommy John surgery), so trading one or two of them would seem like a likely scenario.

Another possibility is that one of the above pitchers is converted to the pen and becomes the closer in waiting for when Jason Motte becomes a free agent after the 2014 season (although Mitch Boggs may have something to say about that).

In any case, having quality pitching options at the major and minor league level opens up a world of possibilities for the Cardinals and should ensure a solid pitching staff for years to come.

Projecting the Cardinals future lineups

So far its been a pretty quiet offseason for the Cardinals.  They traded Skip Schumaker to Los Angeles for minor leaguer Jake Lemmerman, signed Ty Wigginton to replace him on the bench and added left Randy Choate to the bullpen.

Nothing awe inspiring there, but then again, when you are a playoff team and will have your former ace, Chris Carpenter, back for a full season, big moves are not necessary. 

Thus, with it unlikely that the Cards will make any big moves, lets take an early look at the 2013 projected lineup as well as future years.

2013

With no major changes this offseason, the 2013 lineup will look a lot like the 2012 version.   The main question being who will play second.  Daniel Descalso is the incumbent, but Matt Carpenter is working on playing second this offseason as the Cards hope to get his bat in the lineup.

The other question mark is the health of Rafael Furcal.  He was the leadoff hitter for the Cards, when healthy, but his health concerns and deteriorating skills probably necessitate a move towards the bottom of the lineup.

With that said, here is how I see the 2013 lineup:

1. Jon Jay, CF
2. Carlos Beltran, RF
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, 1B
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Matt Carpenter, 2B
8. Rafael Furcal, SS
9. Pitcher

2014-2015

After the 2013 season, two players will likely reach free agency, Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal.  Its unlikely that the Cards will resign Furcal, as there is not much left in his tank.  Beltran will be a more difficult decision, as he has put up excellent numbers with the Cards.  However, with Oscar Taveras waiting in the wings and Beltran not getting any younger, the Cardinals will probably decide to let him walk and use the $13 million savings to shore up other areas of need.

The other possible change is that Kolten Wong will be ready to take over at second base after spending the 2013 season at AAA.  Wong would be an upgrade defensively from Carpenter, but would likely be a downgrade offensively.  It will be interesting to see who wins out, but, assuming that Carpenter has a decent year offensively in 2012, its likely he will hold on to the job.

Assuming the Cardinals fill these holes in house with Pete Kozma and Taveras, the 2014 will look pretty similar to 2013, with Carpenter likely moving up to the #2 spot (so as to not put too much pressure on Taveras), which would give us the following 2014 lineup:

1. Jon Jay, CF
2. Matt Carpenter, 2B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, 1B
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Oscar Taveras, RF
8. Pete Kozma, SS
9. Pitcher

 The 2015 lineup will not be much different as all of the above players are still under team control.  Its possible that Taveras will have proven himself to be a better hitter than Carpenter and would therefore move up to the #2 spot, with Carpenter moving to #7 and Wong possibly splitting time with him.  This would give us the following 2015 lineup:

1. Jon Jay, CF
2. Oscar Taveras, RF
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, 1B
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Matt Carpenter/Kolten Wong, 2B
8. Pete Kozma, SS
9. Pitcher

2016

David Freese will be a free agent after the 2015 season and, as he will be 32 by that point, the Cards may decide to let him go and move Carpenter to his more natural third base position.  This will allow Kolten Wong to get his first taste of full time action at second.  

The other players will remain, with some possible shifts in the order, as Holliday will be 36 by then and may be showing signs of age, but will likely still retain his excellent OBP skills,  and Taveras may be coming into his own offensively, which may cause Mike Matheny to flip-flop them in the lineup. 

Thus, this could be the Cards lineup for 2016:

1. Jon Jay, CF
2. Matt Holliday, LF
3. Oscar Taveras, RF
4. Allen Craig, 1B
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Carpenter, 3B
7. Kolten Wong, 2B
8. Pete Kozma, SS
9. Pitcher

Overall

With many of the core players under team control for several years and some quality prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals should not have to pursue any big name free agents on the offensive side.  The only area of concern is that of short stop, where Furcal is an injury risk for 2013 and Kozma does not have the minor league track record to indicate that he is worthy of the starting gig.

The Cards could pursue a shortstop via trade (or even free agency), most likely after the 2013 season, which could change the shape of the 2014-2016 lineups.  If they get a leadoff type hitter at short, they could move Jay to the #2 spot and push Carpenter down to the 7th or 8th spot.  

The bottom line is that, however way you look at it, the Cards should have a good offense for years.