Does Cardinals manager Mike Matheny trust his bullpen?

One week into the season, you get the sense that Cardinals manager Mike Matheny does not trust his entire bullpen.

In the first 7 games, Matheny has leaned heavily on holdovers Trevor Rosenthal (3 games), Carlos Martinez (4 games), Pat Neshek (4 games) and Kevin Siegrist (5 games). 

However, rubber-armed LOOGY Randy Choate has appeared in just 2 games, while last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness and this year's "last spot in the bullpen" winner Keith Butler have appeared in just one game apiece.

I can understand the reluctance to use Butler, who was rocked for 5 runs in his lone inning of work, however, the lack of use for Maness and even Choate is unexplicable. 

Using Maness and Choate more would help ease the burden on both Neshek and Siegrist, who, at this pace, would appear in a whopping 93 and 116 games for the season.

Martinez is another problem though.

My initial thought was that, once Jason Motte gets healthy, he would replace Martinez in the bullpen, so that Martinez might be stretched out again as a starter.  However, now I'm not so sure.

Maybe the plan is that Motte replaces Butler in the pen and then Motte and Martinez split the setup duties.

Its not the best case scenario for Martinez' development, but it probably would be best for the team this season.

The bullpen is still a work-in-progress at this point and things may become clearer as the season wears on.

However, one thing is for sure, Matheny needs to find some other guys he can rely on this season or were going to have a lot of tired arms come September.

Catching up with the Cardinals

Well, as often happens with 3 kids and a demanding job, life got in the way of blogging the last couple weeks, so let's all catch up on what's happened during that time.

First, the Cardinals finalized their opening day roster, with the Spring Training Battles being decided, as follows:

5th Starter

Despite having a superior spring, Carlos Martinez was relegated to the bullpen, where his power arm was more desperately needed.  Joe Kelly "won" the 5th starter job, more on last season's performance than this spring's results, which is probably how it should be.

Bench

Thanks in part to an injury to Mark Ellis, both Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma made the opening day roster, along with 4th outfielder Shane Robinson. 

One of Descalso or Kozma will have to go when Ellis is healthy and, if the recent trade rumors are any indication, it will probably be Kozma. 

As for Robinson, he's likely just keeping the seat warm until Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty or even Mike O'Neill is deemed ready to take over the 4th outfield spot. 

Bullpen

The battle for the last bullpen slot came down to Jorge Rondon and Keith Butler, with Butler winning the job.  However, with Jason Motte expected back in early May, it will be interesting to see what the Cards do. 

Will they send Martinez down to stretch him back out as a starter or will they keep him in the pen and jettison Butler?  My hope is that Martinez will be sent down, but the team may keep him up out of necessity, as it already appears that Mike Matheny has few relievers he trusts in the pen.

The Season so Far

With the roster set, the Cardinals have faced the Reds and Pirates in their first 6 games and come out of the road trip with a 3-3 record.  They return home to face the Reds and Cubs this week.

While not a bad road trip, the lack of offense so far is a little bit of a concern.  The Cardinals have scored only 17 runs in those 6 games, including 4 games where they have scored two runs or less.  Hopefully their bats will warm up with the weather.

Overall, not a bad start, but not great either.  Hopefully the Cardinals can make some noise on this 6-game home stand and carry the momentum going forward.

Cardinals Spring Training Battle #2: The Bullpen

The good thing about having a solid team, like the Cardinals, is that there is not a lot of unsettled positions heading into the season.  A little over a week ago, I took a look at the Cards 5th starter competition.

Tonight, I will look at the bullpen.

Sure Things

Given the way that they pitched last year, there are four pitchers who are virtual locks to open the season in the major league bullpen:  Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and veteran LOOGY Randy Choate.

Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and should be for the whole season.   Siegrist was nearly unhittable last season, posting a 0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings.  Choate does was he always does, gets lefties out, holding them to a .176 average (.492 OPS) in 2013.  Maness' performance this spring may give Mike Matheny some pause (9.39 ERA in 7.2 IP), but his 2.32 ERA and incredible 4.40 GO/AO ratio in 2013 is what probably matters more to Matheny.

The Almost Sure Thing

One of Joe Kelly or Carlos Martinez, whoever loses out in the 5th starter battle, will likely end up in the Cardinals pen to start the 2014 season. 

Martinez performed well as the Cards eighth inning guy in the playoffs last year and could fill the same role this year.  While Kelly was valuable to the team as a swingman last season.

The Battle

We can assume that the Cardinals will go with at least 7 relievers to start the season (maybe 8), so that leaves two spots open. 

The leading candidates are Pat Neshek, Sam Freeman, Tyler Lyons, Jorge Rondon and Keith Butler.

Non-roster invitee, Neshek, has the advantage of experience, with a career 2.56 ERA in 9 seasons.  He has also pitched well this spring allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings.  He is likely going to earn one spot.

Freeman has a career 2.75 ERA in the minors and pitched well in his September callup last year (2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP).  His main problem is his control (career 3.9 BB/9 in the minors).

Lyons has not pitched well this spring, allowing 8 runs in 6.2 IP.  However, he did fare well in a relief role towards the end of last season (1 ER in 9.1 IP). 

Rondon has yet to allow a run this spring in 6.1 IP.  However, his minor league track record is less than stellar (4.86 ERA in 8 seasons).

Butler has the minor league stats (2.29 ERA and 265 K's in 212 IP), but has struggled with his control at the major league level, giving up 11 walks in 20 innings last year and 5 walks in 7.1 innings this spring.

Prediction

As of right now, I would have to go with Neshek and Freeman for the last two bullpen spots.  Lyons will likely start the 2014 season in Memphis' rotation, while Rondon and Butler will likely ride the Memphis/St.Louis shuttle this season, whenever the Cards need a fresh arm.

How does Jaime Garcia's injury affect the Cardinals bullpen?

With Jaime Garcia nursing a sore shoulder and already ruled out of the rotation, at least for the beginning of the season, one of either Joe Kelly or Carlos Martinez will take over for him.  However, as both of those guys were slated to fill roles in the Cardinals pen, what do the Cards do to fill that hole?

Currently the bullpen consists of closer Trevor Rosenthal, setup men Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, LOOGY Randy Choate and a bunch of question marks.

With a healthy Garcia, Martinez could have served as the 8th inning guy while Kelly could have acted as a swing-man, filling the long-relief role and making spot starts, as needed.  However, if Martinez earns a rotation spot, who will pitch the 8th or if Kelly earns the spot, who is your long-reliever/spot starter?

Jason Motte has shown good progress to date and could potentially be ready for a bullpen role at the start of the season.  But, do the Cardinals want to throw him right into the fire and make him the 8th guy?  Not likely.

Pat Neshek was signed to a minor league deal and could be a nice addition to the pen.  He has a career 3.07 ERA over 7 years, including a 3.35 ERA in 40.1 innings last year with Oakland.

Then you've got young guys like Sam Freeman and Keith Butler who could earn a spot in the pen, but are largely unproven.

My feeling is that Kelly will earn the 5th starter spot and that Martinez will serve as the 8th inning guy, at least at the start of the season.  Once Motte proves himself healthy and reliable, he can take over the 8th inning role and allow Martinez to head down to AAA to stretch himself out for the rotation.  He can then take over for Kelly down the stretch, if needed.

The benefits to this are two-fold.  One, it preserves Martinez' innings so that the Cardinals do not overtax him in his first full big league season and two it gives the team another extended look at Kelly as a starter to determine if he's really as good as his career 13-9 and 3.03 ERA record (in 31 starts) would indicate.

I still think Martinez is best used as a starter and therefore want him to get more work in AAA this season to refine his secondary pitches, thus I only see his stint in the bullpen as a temporary assignment.  However, if things don't go well, i.e. Motte is ineffective or the other rookies don't step up, Martinez may end up in the pen all year, which could be a detriment to his development.

In any case, its nice to have some pitching depth when it comes to the Cardinals starters, but it makes you wonder if the Cards have enough depth in the pen.

Cardinals conundrum: What will be Carlos Martinez' role in the second half?

According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals will spend some time over the All Star break assessing what to do with Carlos Martinez. 

After optioning Martinez down to AAA on May 27th to stretch him out as a starter, the Cardinals recalled him on July 11th to give the team a fresh arm in the pen before the break.  However, what was originally considered a temporary assignment may now become a more permanent one.

There are various factors that come into play here, the foremost being what makes the most sense, both for the team and for Martinez' development. 

As GM John Mozeliak states:

"We have to assess what makes the most sense. He’s electric. I definitely don’t want him to go backward in terms of how much he has built up (as a starter). As we look at the next two or three weeks is there enough usage to justify keeping him here?”

In addition, Mike Matheny sums up the difficult decision like this:

 “We do really like what he brings as a starter. For his development, it’s better for him to be prepared to start. It’s tough to weigh. We know he wants to be here. We like having him here. We think he can help us. But there is more that goes into the decision.”

As Matheny says, there are other factors at play here as well.

For instance, a lot might depend on how Chris Carpenter fares in his rehab.  He makes his first start tonight for AA Springfield and if he progresses, the need for Martinez as a starter decreases.


Also, will the Cardinals be able to find Martinez enough work?  Prior to being moved into the starting rotation, Joe Kelly worked as the long reliever in the pen, the role that Martinez would likely take over.  In the first two month of the season, Kelly only threw 18.2 innings, which would have put him on pace for about 55 innings.  Hardly enough innings to allow a youngster like Martinez develop properly.

I think that the best option for the Cardinals and Martinez would be to send him back down to AAA to start. Although the Cardinals might not need another starter this year, they will certainly be looking for starters next year, with Jake Westbrook likely heading to free agency and the 5th starter spot still up in the air.  Martinez could be one of the favorites to claim a starting role next year, but only if he's given time to properly develop this year. 

However, the Cardinals may have already made their decision, as they optioned Keith Butler to AAA today.  Butler, a righthander like Martinez, was unscored upon in his last 8 appearances, yet the Cards sent him down anyway, a possible indication that they have decided to keep Martinez.

In any case, I hope that if the Cardinals have decided to keep Martinez in the pen, it won't hamper his long-term development.

Cardinals sell low on Mitchell Boggs?

One year after leading the NL in holds with 34, the Cardinals appear to have sold low on Mitchell Boggs, trading him for cash, international signing bonus cash to be exact.

According to Scott Miller of CBSSports.com, the Cardinals traded Mitchell Boggs to the Colorado Rockies for their International Signing Bonus slot #4, which is worth only $206,400.

Doesn't seem like a lot for a pitcher who just last year was one of the best setup men in the NL, but there is more to this move than just the international money.

First, thanks to the success of their rookie relievers, Boggs had become expendable.  As Rick Hummel points out, the rookie quintet of Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, Keith Butler, Michael Blazek and Kevin Siegrist have been stellar.  In 96 innings, they have a combined 1.88 ERA with 102 K's. 

These guys have been a big part of the Cardinals bullpen resurgence.  After having the worst team bullpen ERA in April, thanks in large part to Boggs, the Cards pen has shown steady improvement over the last couple months, moving all the way up to 7th in the NL with a 3.52 bullpen ERA. 

Also, in addition to the international cash, the Cardinals rid themselves of Boggs' $1,475,000 salary for the rest of the year (about $737,500).  This was a sunk cost for the Cards, as it was unlikely that Boggs would make it back to the majors with the team, so to be able to dump his salary on the Rockies as well as getting a little extra international cash on top of it was a win-win scenario.

So, after a day of cleaning house for the Cardinals, including releasing Ty Wigginton, it will be interesting to see what the team's next move is.

Cardinals bullpen in danger of being overworked

After yesterday's 14 inning affair that saw the Cardinals use 5 relievers, including 4 (Seth Maness, Trevor Rosenthal, Edward Mujica and Keith Butler) for 2 or more innings, the Cards bullpen is in serious danger of being overworked.

Tonight, the Cardinals plan on using Joe Kelly to start against the Diamondbacks, in what will likely be another bullpen affair.  Kelly, who has not been stretched out since beginning the season as the Cards long reliever, is unlikely to last more than 4-5 innings, meaning the bullpen will have to be relied upon heavily again.

For teams with a lot of bullpen depth, both at the major and minor league level, this is not an issue.  But for a team like the Cardinals, who have had bullpen issues all season, this could spell trouble with a capital "T".

The Cards have tried to alleviate this problem by recalling Maikel Cleto from AAA and sending Victor Marte down.  However, Cleto's track record doesn't inspire confidence and its unlikely that Mike Matheny would use him in a pressure situation. 

So, if its a tight game tonight, who will Matheny turn to?  Trevor Rosenthal, who has been used heavily all season, including pitching 3 innings the last two days?  Edward Mujica, who was extended to two innings last night instead of his normal one inning save duties.

Only Randy Choate and Cleto are "fresh" and ready to go for tonight's game.  Beyond that, its anybody's guess as to who will get the call.

One thing is for sure, the Cardinals better hope that Shelby Miller and Adam Wainwright can give the at least 7 innings the next two nights so the bullpen can get some much needed rest.