Is Bryce Harper still a possibility for the Cardinals?

At last week's winter meetings, uber-agent Scott Boras held his annual press conference, basically because he can.

During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".

Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".

The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.

But will they be?

The short answer is maybe.

The long answer is it's complicated.

First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders.  They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position.  Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.

In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job.  Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract. 

O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability.  The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings.  Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.

Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want.  Can the Cardinals wait that long?

Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage.  They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency.  But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.

Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high.  He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.

Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million.  Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history.  Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.

Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value).  That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.

Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper.  However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.

All we can do now is wait and see what happens.

Winter Meetings: What is on the Cardinals to do list?

With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks last week, the Cardinals already checked one item off their to do list for this off season. Although another big bat, like Bryce Harper, would be nice, it doesn't appear to be in the Cards.

So, what is left on the Cardinals to do list for this off season?  Let's take a look:

1.  Strengthen the bullpen, particularly from the left side

The Cards still have two years and $15 million left on the regrettable Brett Cecil contract and while they don't want to make the same mistake again, they still need to strengthen the left side of their bullpen if they want to contend next year.

Derrick Goold indicates that the Cardinals are in on lefties Zach Britton and Andrew Miller.  Both have closing experience, which could allow the Cards to give Jordan Hicks more time to develop before thrusting him into that role.  

However, both Britton (Achilles) and Miller (shoulder) dealt with injuries last year and will not come cheap.  They are in high demand and will likely cost in excess of $30 million over 3 years.  While the Cards have the financial flexibility to make such a deal, its hard to see them go all in on either Britton or Miller after getting burned by Cecil.

If neither of them work out for the Cardinals, they could pivot to the next tier of lefties, such as Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and/or Tony Sipp.

2.  Add a left handed bench bat, preferably one with some pop

The Cards entered this off season looking for a big bat, preferably one who hits left handed. 

However, they ended up with Goldschmidt.  

While that is all well and good, the Cardinals could still use some pop from the left side to keep opposing teams honest.

According to Goold, they have had talks with Daniel Descalso's agent about a possible reunion and Derek Dietrich is another possibility.  

Beyond that, there's not many appealing options on the free agent market, so the team might have to look inwards and hope they can make do with someone like the switch hitting Tommy Edman or lefty Max Schrock, although neither offers much pop. 

3.  Sort out the outfield logjam

According to Brendan Schaeffer, the Cardinals are going to give Dexter Fowler every opportunity to assume the everyday right field role in 2019.  While that is the PC thing to say, its hard to see him bouncing back from a .180/.278/.298 season that was cut short by a foot injury.

The Cards have Tyler O'Neil waiting in the wings, but he strikes out a ton (57 times in 130 at bats) and may not hit much better.

That leaves Jose Martinez.  He was the second best hitter on the team, in terms of OPS (behind only Matt Carpenter) and while his defense is much maligned, his DRS of -6 is only slightly worse than Fowler's -5 and his UZR of -1 is actually better than Fowler's -5.2 mark.

Long story short, I wouldn't give up on Martinez just yet.  While they are unlikely to be able to trade away Fowler and his hefty contract, especially given his down year, they could be willing to relegate him to a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement role.

In any case, it should be an interesting week.