The Cardinals made another big splash today by finalizing a deal to sign lefty reliever Andrew Miller. Per Ken Rosenthal, the deal is for two years and $25 million with an option for 2021 that vests if Miller pitches in 110 games between 2019 and 2020.
According to Jeff Jones, when discussing Miller's role with the team, John Mozeliak said that "we see this as someone who will be used in high leverage situations...when you talk about role, there will be some flexibility in that."
So, even though Miller has served as closer before, saving 36 games for the Yankees in 2015, he is not guaranteed to be the closer for the Cards in 2019. The fact that the deal does not include incentives for games finished is another indication that neither the team nor Miller expect him to be the closer or at least not full time.
In early November, Derrick Goold indicated that the Cards see Jordan Hicks as a potential closer in the not-to-distant future. In addition, its been hinted that star prospect Alex Reyes could work out of the pen next year, to help limit his innings after an injury plagued season. He too has closer-worthy stuff.
So, who will emerge as the closer in 2019?
My (somewhat) educated guess is that the Cardinals will use a combination of all three.
From the Tampa Bay Rays using "openers" (relief pitchers used to get the first several outs in a game), to starters lasting fewer innings due to the risks associated with facing a lineup for a third time in a game, the world of relief pitchers is constantly evolving.
No longer are managers just relying on their best pitchers to get the last 3 outs in a game, but they need quality relievers to help bridge the gap from when the starter hands the ball over in the 5th or 6th inning until the end of the game. In addition, closers are often required to get more than just 3 outs.
All of this means that relievers, including closers, will need more rest during the season, and managers need more than one option to close out games.
The Brewers used a three-headed monster of Corey Knebel (16 saves), Josh Hader (12 saves) and Jeremy Jeffress (15 saves) to close out games in 2018 on their way to the division title.
The Cincinnati Reds did the same thing all the way back in 1990, using the "Nasty Boys" of Randy Myers, Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble, to lead them to a World Series title.
One thing is for sure, if Miller, Hicks and Reyes are all clicking in 2019, manager Mike Shildt will have the luxury of picking and choosing who he uses on any given night and what was a weakness in 2018 could become a strength in 2019.
Showing posts with label St. Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Showing posts with label St. Louis Cardinals. Show all posts
Friday, December 21, 2018
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Is Bryce Harper still a possibility for the Cardinals?
At last week's winter meetings, uber-agent Scott Boras held his annual press conference, basically because he can.
During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".
Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".
The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.
But will they be?
The short answer is maybe.
The long answer is it's complicated.
First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders. They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position. Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.
In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job. Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract.
O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability. The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings. Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.
Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want. Can the Cardinals wait that long?
Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage. They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency. But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.
Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high. He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.
Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million. Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history. Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.
Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value). That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.
Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper. However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.
All we can do now is wait and see what happens.
During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".
Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".
The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.
But will they be?
The short answer is maybe.
The long answer is it's complicated.
First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders. They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position. Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.
In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job. Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract.
O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability. The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings. Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.
Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want. Can the Cardinals wait that long?
Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage. They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency. But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.
Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high. He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.
Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million. Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history. Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.
Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value). That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.
Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper. However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.
All we can do now is wait and see what happens.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Winter Meetings: What is on the Cardinals to do list?
With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks last week, the Cardinals already checked one item off their to do list for this off season. Although another big bat, like Bryce Harper, would be nice, it doesn't appear to be in the Cards.
So, what is left on the Cardinals to do list for this off season? Let's take a look:
1. Strengthen the bullpen, particularly from the left side
The Cards still have two years and $15 million left on the regrettable Brett Cecil contract and while they don't want to make the same mistake again, they still need to strengthen the left side of their bullpen if they want to contend next year.
Derrick Goold indicates that the Cardinals are in on lefties Zach Britton and Andrew Miller. Both have closing experience, which could allow the Cards to give Jordan Hicks more time to develop before thrusting him into that role.
However, both Britton (Achilles) and Miller (shoulder) dealt with injuries last year and will not come cheap. They are in high demand and will likely cost in excess of $30 million over 3 years. While the Cards have the financial flexibility to make such a deal, its hard to see them go all in on either Britton or Miller after getting burned by Cecil.
If neither of them work out for the Cardinals, they could pivot to the next tier of lefties, such as Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and/or Tony Sipp.
2. Add a left handed bench bat, preferably one with some pop
The Cards entered this off season looking for a big bat, preferably one who hits left handed.
However, they ended up with Goldschmidt.
While that is all well and good, the Cardinals could still use some pop from the left side to keep opposing teams honest.
According to Goold, they have had talks with Daniel Descalso's agent about a possible reunion and Derek Dietrich is another possibility.
Beyond that, there's not many appealing options on the free agent market, so the team might have to look inwards and hope they can make do with someone like the switch hitting Tommy Edman or lefty Max Schrock, although neither offers much pop.
3. Sort out the outfield logjam
According to Brendan Schaeffer, the Cardinals are going to give Dexter Fowler every opportunity to assume the everyday right field role in 2019. While that is the PC thing to say, its hard to see him bouncing back from a .180/.278/.298 season that was cut short by a foot injury.
The Cards have Tyler O'Neil waiting in the wings, but he strikes out a ton (57 times in 130 at bats) and may not hit much better.
That leaves Jose Martinez. He was the second best hitter on the team, in terms of OPS (behind only Matt Carpenter) and while his defense is much maligned, his DRS of -6 is only slightly worse than Fowler's -5 and his UZR of -1 is actually better than Fowler's -5.2 mark.
Long story short, I wouldn't give up on Martinez just yet. While they are unlikely to be able to trade away Fowler and his hefty contract, especially given his down year, they could be willing to relegate him to a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement role.
In any case, it should be an interesting week.
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Could the Cardinals offense be improved in 2016?
The St. Louis Cardinals offense suffered a big loss when Jason Heyward took less money to sign with the rival Cubs. Given that the Cards finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, Heyward and his 3.8 oWAR (offensive Wins Against Replacement) will be missed.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
Adam Wainwright injured: Who might replace him in Cardinals' rotation?
In case you missed it, Adam Wainwright was injured tonight trying to get out of the batter's box on a popup of all things. He will undergo an MRI to see the extent of the injury, but its likely he's headed to the DL.
Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season. However, that is the worst case scenario.
At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation? Here are the Cardinals' options:
Marco Gonzales
The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales. He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.
As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.
The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.
Tim Cooney
Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts. His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters. However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.
Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.
Tyler Lyons
Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.
He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.
He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.
UPDATE:
It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in. However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.
Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....
Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season. However, that is the worst case scenario.
At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation? Here are the Cardinals' options:
Marco Gonzales
The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales. He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.
As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.
The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.
Tim Cooney
Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts. His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters. However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.
Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.
Tyler Lyons
Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.
He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.
He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.
UPDATE:
It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in. However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.
Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Catching up with the Cardinals
OK, its been a while.
The problem with any blog, where you're the sole writer, is that often "real" life gets in the way.
So, with all the background noise finally starting to die down some, its time to get caught up with the Cards.
The Cardinals did most of the offseason moves before Christmas, acquiring Jason Heyward (for Shelby Miller) and adding Mark Reynolds to the bench. Heyward, who hit his first Redbird homer yesterday, seems to be a good fit for the team, while Reynolds gives the Cards a much needed right handed power bat to pair with Matt Adams at first.
Now, 10 games into the season, the Cardinals are 7-3 and sitting atop the NL Central. However, its not all wine and roses for the team. Despite the good start, there are some concerns to go along with the positives.
First, lets look at the positive, the pitching.
So far the pitching has been outstanding. The Cardinals pitching staff sits atop the NL leader board with a 2.00 ERA. Both the starters (2.02 ERA) and the relievers (1.95 ERA) have pitched well.
Particularly impressive has been the two starts by Carlos Martinez. After winning the 5th starter job, when Jaime Garcia succumbed to injury, he has had two straight quality starts, lasting 6 innings in both, while allowing just 7 hits, 4 walks and just 3 earned runs. He seems more focused this year, which he is dedicating to his departed friend, Oscar Taveras, and the only thing that might hold him down is a innings limit of around 150.
Now for the main concern, hitting.
Sure, the team is hitting .260, good for 4th in the NL, and their OBP of .323 is good for 2nd in the NL. Yet, despite the ability to get on base, the Cardinals have scored a paltry 41 runs (10th in the league) and have hit just 5 homers (14th in the league).
The Cardinals have not been known for their power hitters, finishing last in homers in 2014, but they were able to get by because of their approach with runners in scoring position (RISP). However, after hitting .330 with RISP in 2013, that average dropped to just .254 last year, when the team struggled to score runs, and its sitting at just .264 so far this year.
Without any significant power presence and an inability to hit in the clutch, the team could struggle to score runs again this year.
Overall, I feel confident in the Cardinals pitching staff. The have a lot of quality arms and some depth in the minors. The hitting is a concern, but, as we have seen with the Giants, good pitching and timely hitting can carry a team a long way.
The problem with any blog, where you're the sole writer, is that often "real" life gets in the way.
So, with all the background noise finally starting to die down some, its time to get caught up with the Cards.
The Cardinals did most of the offseason moves before Christmas, acquiring Jason Heyward (for Shelby Miller) and adding Mark Reynolds to the bench. Heyward, who hit his first Redbird homer yesterday, seems to be a good fit for the team, while Reynolds gives the Cards a much needed right handed power bat to pair with Matt Adams at first.
Now, 10 games into the season, the Cardinals are 7-3 and sitting atop the NL Central. However, its not all wine and roses for the team. Despite the good start, there are some concerns to go along with the positives.
First, lets look at the positive, the pitching.
So far the pitching has been outstanding. The Cardinals pitching staff sits atop the NL leader board with a 2.00 ERA. Both the starters (2.02 ERA) and the relievers (1.95 ERA) have pitched well.
Particularly impressive has been the two starts by Carlos Martinez. After winning the 5th starter job, when Jaime Garcia succumbed to injury, he has had two straight quality starts, lasting 6 innings in both, while allowing just 7 hits, 4 walks and just 3 earned runs. He seems more focused this year, which he is dedicating to his departed friend, Oscar Taveras, and the only thing that might hold him down is a innings limit of around 150.
Now for the main concern, hitting.
Sure, the team is hitting .260, good for 4th in the NL, and their OBP of .323 is good for 2nd in the NL. Yet, despite the ability to get on base, the Cardinals have scored a paltry 41 runs (10th in the league) and have hit just 5 homers (14th in the league).
The Cardinals have not been known for their power hitters, finishing last in homers in 2014, but they were able to get by because of their approach with runners in scoring position (RISP). However, after hitting .330 with RISP in 2013, that average dropped to just .254 last year, when the team struggled to score runs, and its sitting at just .264 so far this year.
Without any significant power presence and an inability to hit in the clutch, the team could struggle to score runs again this year.
Overall, I feel confident in the Cardinals pitching staff. The have a lot of quality arms and some depth in the minors. The hitting is a concern, but, as we have seen with the Giants, good pitching and timely hitting can carry a team a long way.
Thursday, October 10, 2013
NLCS Preview: St. Louis Cardinals vs Los Angeles Dodgers
The Cardinals finished off the Pirates last night in game 5 of the NLDS, thanks in large part to the strong pitching of Adam Wainwright. Now, as their reward, they get to face the Dodgers in the NLCS.
After sputtering along to a 47-47 record in the first half of the season, the Dodgers turned it on in the second half, going 45-23 to win the NL West by 11 games. They dispatched the Atlanta Braves in their NLDS in 4 games and should be well rested for tomorrow's first game.
The Cardinals had their ups-and-downs during the season, but won the games that mattered while winning the Central by 3 games. They then proceeded to eliminate the pesky Pirates in a 5-game NLDS.
Here's how I see these two teams matching up.
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs. A.J. Ellis
Do we really even need to discuss this? Ellis, while a decent catcher, hit only .238/.318/.364 on the season. Molina hit .319/.359/.477 and is considered a MVP candidate.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Adrian Gonzalez
Although Allen Craig is hoping to play in the NLCS, its seems unlikely at this point, leaving the Cardinals with Adams. Although Adams is no slouch (.839 OPS, 131 OPS+), Gonzalez (.801 OPS, 126 OPS+) has been around longer as is considered a much better defender.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Mark Ellis
Carpenter (.873 OPS, 143 OPS+) is another MVP candidate for the Cardinals, while Ellis (.674 OPS, 92 OPS+), like his catching namesake, is solid, but unspectacular.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso vs Hanley Ramirez
While Kozma may be the better defender vs Ramirez, the combo of Kozma and Descalso cannot match Ramirez' offensive firepower.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Third Base: David Freese vs Juan Uribe
This is a tough call. Freese (.721 OPS) had a down year and was nearly replaced in the lineup by Kolten Wong. Uribe had a bit of a resurgence, but still only managed a .769 OPS. However, since Uribe showed a little more power than Freese, I have to give him the edge.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Carl Crawford
Holliday may be getting older, but its not showing in his offense. His .879 OPS and 144 OPS+ led the Cardinals. Crawford battled injuries this year and managed only a .736 OPS and 108 OPS+.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andre Ethier
It was a down year for Jay, who posted the lowest OPS (.721) and OPS+ (102) of his career. Ethier is coming back from an injury, but is expected to be ready for game one. His 122 OPS+ is right in line with his career average (123).
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Yasiel Puig
This is the opposite situation to first base, where you have an upstart rookie in Puig, who put up solid numbers vs a veteran in Beltran who has more experience and has put up huge numbers in October.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals will likely go with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn as their 4 starters for the series. Kelly (1-0, 3.24 ERA vs the Dodgers) will get the start in game 1. Lynn, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Dodgers this year, will likely get the start in game 4. Wacha (no record) is slated to get the start in game 2 in St. Louis. That would set up Wainwright to pitch game 3 and game 7, if necessary.
Wainwright has proven to be a big game pitcher, Wacha is showing that he thrives in pressure situations and Kelly has been pretty consistent all year. The X factor is Lynn. If he's "on", the Cardinals staff can match up with any team. If not, they're in trouble.
The Dodgers will trot out a foursome of Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Ricky Nolasco and Hyun-jin Ryu. Greinke (1-0, 2.84 ERA vs the Cards in 2013) gets the nod in game one, with Kershaw (0-2, 4.15 ERA) set for game 2. Its unclear who will pitch games 3 and 4, but both Nolasco (2-0, 0.75 ERA) and Ryu (1-0, 0.00 ERA) have fared well against the Cardinals.
The good news for Cardinal fans is that they likely won't have to face Kershaw, the likely Cy Young winner, more than twice. The bad news is that he is the one pitcher of the four that they have fared the best against.
With questions surrounding Lynn for the Cardinals, its hard for them to match up well against the Dodgers loaded staff.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Bullpen
Trevor Rosenthal has been successful in all 4 save attempts since taking over for the worn out Edward Mujica. However, Mujica's uncertainty has forced Mike Matheny to shift bullpen roles late in the season, pushing rookies Carlos Martinez and Kevin Siegrist into setup roles, along with double-play specialist Seth Maness.
The Dodgers feature their own flamethrower in Kenley Jansen, who replace Brandon League as closer in June. Rookie Chris Withrow has filled a setup role, along with lefties Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell.
Overall, the Cardinals have a slightly better bullpen ERA than the Dodgers (3.45 vs 3.49), but neither one distinguishes themselves from the other.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Bench
Injuries to stars Allen Craig and Matt Kemp, have forced others into more prominent roles, leaving each bench somewhat depleted. The Dodgers bench features former Cardinal Skip Schumaker (.655 OPS) and utility guy Nick Punto (.655 OPS), while the Cardinals counter with Shane Robinson (.664 OPS) and Descalso (.656 OPS).
Neither bench should see much action nor have much impact on the outcome of the series.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Intangibles
This is the Dodgers first postseason appearance since 2009, while the Cardinals are appearing in their 3rd straight postseason.
Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, is in just his third season at the helm and this is his first postseason experience. Cardinals manager, Mike Matheny is in his second season and second postseason.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they are 54-27.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
This projects to be another close series, as the 5-5-2 breakdown above shows. The Cardinals need their bats to wake up after hitting just .209 in the NLDS, while the Dodgers hit .333, and it all starts with Matt Carpenter. Carpenter had just 1 hit in 19 at bats in the NLDS. If he gets in going in the NLCS, the Cardinals have a chance. If not, the series will be over quickly.
With that said and being the homer that I am, I have to go with my heart on this one.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 7
After sputtering along to a 47-47 record in the first half of the season, the Dodgers turned it on in the second half, going 45-23 to win the NL West by 11 games. They dispatched the Atlanta Braves in their NLDS in 4 games and should be well rested for tomorrow's first game.
The Cardinals had their ups-and-downs during the season, but won the games that mattered while winning the Central by 3 games. They then proceeded to eliminate the pesky Pirates in a 5-game NLDS.
Here's how I see these two teams matching up.
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs. A.J. Ellis
Do we really even need to discuss this? Ellis, while a decent catcher, hit only .238/.318/.364 on the season. Molina hit .319/.359/.477 and is considered a MVP candidate.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Adrian Gonzalez
Although Allen Craig is hoping to play in the NLCS, its seems unlikely at this point, leaving the Cardinals with Adams. Although Adams is no slouch (.839 OPS, 131 OPS+), Gonzalez (.801 OPS, 126 OPS+) has been around longer as is considered a much better defender.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Mark Ellis
Carpenter (.873 OPS, 143 OPS+) is another MVP candidate for the Cardinals, while Ellis (.674 OPS, 92 OPS+), like his catching namesake, is solid, but unspectacular.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Pete Kozma/Daniel Descalso vs Hanley Ramirez
While Kozma may be the better defender vs Ramirez, the combo of Kozma and Descalso cannot match Ramirez' offensive firepower.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Third Base: David Freese vs Juan Uribe
This is a tough call. Freese (.721 OPS) had a down year and was nearly replaced in the lineup by Kolten Wong. Uribe had a bit of a resurgence, but still only managed a .769 OPS. However, since Uribe showed a little more power than Freese, I have to give him the edge.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Carl Crawford
Holliday may be getting older, but its not showing in his offense. His .879 OPS and 144 OPS+ led the Cardinals. Crawford battled injuries this year and managed only a .736 OPS and 108 OPS+.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andre Ethier
It was a down year for Jay, who posted the lowest OPS (.721) and OPS+ (102) of his career. Ethier is coming back from an injury, but is expected to be ready for game one. His 122 OPS+ is right in line with his career average (123).
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Yasiel Puig
This is the opposite situation to first base, where you have an upstart rookie in Puig, who put up solid numbers vs a veteran in Beltran who has more experience and has put up huge numbers in October.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals will likely go with Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn as their 4 starters for the series. Kelly (1-0, 3.24 ERA vs the Dodgers) will get the start in game 1. Lynn, who is 1-0 with a 0.00 ERA against the Dodgers this year, will likely get the start in game 4. Wacha (no record) is slated to get the start in game 2 in St. Louis. That would set up Wainwright to pitch game 3 and game 7, if necessary.
Wainwright has proven to be a big game pitcher, Wacha is showing that he thrives in pressure situations and Kelly has been pretty consistent all year. The X factor is Lynn. If he's "on", the Cardinals staff can match up with any team. If not, they're in trouble.
The Dodgers will trot out a foursome of Zack Greinke, Clayton Kershaw, Ricky Nolasco and Hyun-jin Ryu. Greinke (1-0, 2.84 ERA vs the Cards in 2013) gets the nod in game one, with Kershaw (0-2, 4.15 ERA) set for game 2. Its unclear who will pitch games 3 and 4, but both Nolasco (2-0, 0.75 ERA) and Ryu (1-0, 0.00 ERA) have fared well against the Cardinals.
The good news for Cardinal fans is that they likely won't have to face Kershaw, the likely Cy Young winner, more than twice. The bad news is that he is the one pitcher of the four that they have fared the best against.
With questions surrounding Lynn for the Cardinals, its hard for them to match up well against the Dodgers loaded staff.
ADVANTAGE: DODGERS
Bullpen
Trevor Rosenthal has been successful in all 4 save attempts since taking over for the worn out Edward Mujica. However, Mujica's uncertainty has forced Mike Matheny to shift bullpen roles late in the season, pushing rookies Carlos Martinez and Kevin Siegrist into setup roles, along with double-play specialist Seth Maness.
The Dodgers feature their own flamethrower in Kenley Jansen, who replace Brandon League as closer in June. Rookie Chris Withrow has filled a setup role, along with lefties Paco Rodriguez and J.P. Howell.
Overall, the Cardinals have a slightly better bullpen ERA than the Dodgers (3.45 vs 3.49), but neither one distinguishes themselves from the other.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Bench
Injuries to stars Allen Craig and Matt Kemp, have forced others into more prominent roles, leaving each bench somewhat depleted. The Dodgers bench features former Cardinal Skip Schumaker (.655 OPS) and utility guy Nick Punto (.655 OPS), while the Cardinals counter with Shane Robinson (.664 OPS) and Descalso (.656 OPS).
Neither bench should see much action nor have much impact on the outcome of the series.
ADVANTAGE: PUSH
Intangibles
This is the Dodgers first postseason appearance since 2009, while the Cardinals are appearing in their 3rd straight postseason.
Dodgers manager, Don Mattingly, is in just his third season at the helm and this is his first postseason experience. Cardinals manager, Mike Matheny is in his second season and second postseason.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they are 54-27.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
This projects to be another close series, as the 5-5-2 breakdown above shows. The Cardinals need their bats to wake up after hitting just .209 in the NLDS, while the Dodgers hit .333, and it all starts with Matt Carpenter. Carpenter had just 1 hit in 19 at bats in the NLDS. If he gets in going in the NLCS, the Cardinals have a chance. If not, the series will be over quickly.
With that said and being the homer that I am, I have to go with my heart on this one.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 7
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
CFCL NLDS Preview - Cardinals vs Pirates
After dispatching Dusty Baker and the Reds last night, the Pirates head into St. Louis to take on the Cardinals in the NLDS. I won't lie, the Pirates make me nervous, as the Cards were only 9-10 against them this season. However, the Cardinals do have home field advantage and were 6-3 at home against the Buccos. In addition, the Cards have some momentum, having won 4 out of the last 5 games.
Here's a look at the matchups between the two teams:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Russ Martin
Molina hit .319/.359/.477 on the year with 12 homers and 89 rbis. He is also considered one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in baseball.
Martin hit .226/.327/.377 with 15 homers and 55 rbis. He is no slouch defensively, throwing out 40% of basestealers (Molina threw out 43%), but he is no Molina either.
Molina is an MVP candidate and is by far the better player.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Justin Morneau
Adams has been on fire since Allen Craig went down with an injury. He hit .283/.335/.503 on the year with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, and turned up the heat in September to the tune of .315/.344/.609 with 8 homers. If he can carryover the late season success into October, he can be a valuable cog in the Cardinals offense.
Morneau is entering the twilight of his career. At 32, he MVP caliber days are gone, but he should not be overlooked either. He hit .259/.323/.411 on the season with 17 homers, but just .260/.370/.312 with no homers after being acquired by the Pirates.
This is a tough call. Adams had a better season, in limited action, but Morneau has more experience in playoff situations. I'll just go with my heart here.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Neil Walker
Carpenter had a stellar year in his first full season with the Cardinals, hitting .318/.392/.481. He led the league with 199 hits, 55 doubles and 126 runs scored. He may not be the best fielding second baseman in the league, but he's at least above average.
Walker had an average season with the Pirates, hitting .251/.339/.418 with 16 homers. He flashed some power in September, hitting 7 homers, but his average suffered (.207 for the month).
This is a pretty easy call, Carpenter is also in the MVP discussion. Walker, while better than average, just doesn't match up.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Daniel Descalso/Pete Kozma vs Jordy Mercer/Clint Barmes
While Kozma and Barmes started off as the starting shortstops for their respective teams, Descalso and Mercer got more starts down the stretch. Kozma (.217/.275/.273) and Barmes (.211/.249/.309) are known more for their defense, while Descalso (.238/.290/.366) and Mercer (.285/.336/.435) were used when their teams were looking for a little more offense.
Neither tandem is very inspiring, but I think the Bucs have a better platoon pair.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Third Base: David Freese vs Pedro Alvarez
Freese is a World Series hero and local boy made good, but his mediocre season (.262/.340/.381) nearly cost him his job. His 9 homers on the year, after hitting 20 last season, also were a disappointment.
Alvarez, on the other hand, set a career mark with 36 home runs, leading the NL, while also driving in 100. However, he strikes out a ton, leading the league with 186 K's, leading to just a .233 average.
Alvarez' power gives him an advantage over hometown hero Freese.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Starling Marte
He may be on the wrong side of 30, but Holliday keeps putting up impressive numbers, hitting .300/.389/.490 on the year with 22 homers and 94 rbis.
Marte does not have your typical power for a corner outfielder, hitting just 12 home runs on the year, but he does have a lot of speed, stealing 41 bases. He also hit pretty well in his first full season, with a .280/.343/.441 slash line.
Holliday's bat outweighs Marte's speed and defense, giving him the slight edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andrew McCutchen
Jay bounced back from a slow start to finish the season with a .276/.351/.370 line. He doesn't offer much power or speed, but plays solid defense and is a good all around player.
McCutchen is the Pirates MVP candidate, with a .317/.404/.508 line to go along with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He is arguably the best all around player on either team.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Marlon Byrd
Beltran season is a tale of two halves. He hit .309/.346/.533 with 19 home runs in the first half, but just .277/.329/.429 with 5 home runs in the second half, including a .217/.320/.313 line in September. However, he thrives in the postseason, with a career .363/.470/.782 line in the playoffs, including a .357/.440/.714 line last year with the Cardinals.
Byrd had a nice comeback year, hitting .291/.336/.511, including .318/.357/.486 after being acquired from the Mets. His 24 home runs this year are a career high. However, this will be the first postseason of his career.
Beltran experience and reputation for taking it up a notch in October gives him the edge over the likely NL comeback player of the year.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
Cardinals projected starters Adam Wainwright (1-0, 3.00 ERA), Lance Lynn (2-1, 5.60), Shelby Miller (0-4, 5.32) and Joe Kelly (3-1, 2.53) have had mixed results against the Pirates. Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 9 IP) is another option for the Cards. Wainwright and Lynn are scheduled to pitch the first two games against the Bucs, beyond that its anyone's guess as to who goes.
The Pirates have A.J. Burnett (3-1, 3.67 ERA against the Cards) lined up for the first game of the series, with Pedro Liriano (3-0, 0.75 ERA), likely to pitch the third game, after shutting down the Reds last night. Beyond those two, Charlie Morton (0-2, 7.90 ERA), Jeff Locke (1-1, 3.38) and Gerritt Cole (no record) are the other options against the Redbirds.
The good news for Cardinals fans is that the team will only have to face Liriano, who has dominated the Cards this year, once this series. It will also be interesting to see if Clint Hurdle will use Locke against the Cards, who have struggled against lefties all year. Locke has struggled in the second half (2-5, 6.00 ERA) and Hurdle may not trust him in the playoffs.
Another factor may be each team's rookie starters, Wacha and Cole. Both performed well down the stretch and could be given a start. However, managers tend to shy away from rookies in pressure situations.
Overall, this is almost too close to call, but I think I have to give the edge to the Pirates, mainly due to their top 2 starters Liriano and Burnett.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bullpen
Edward Mujica, who was the Cardinals closer for the majority of the season, was removed from that role in September, due to "general fatigue" (and, as a result, general ineffectiveness). Trevor Rosenthal stepped up and earned 3 saves during the last couple weeks of the season and will likely fill the closer role in the postseason.
Mujica uncertain status, puts pressure on a bullpen that has already seen its share of ups-and-downs this season. Seth Maness has done well in a setup role and the Cardinals have two quality lefties in Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist. Carlos Martinez could be pushed into a setup role as well.
The Pirates had their own injury concerns with their closer, Jason Grilli, after he missed a little over a month with a forearm strain. Mark Melancon filled in admirably in his absence, but their bullpen is much better with Grilli manning the closing duties. The Pirates bullpen also has a couple quality lefties in Justin Wilson and Tony Watson to counter the Cards lefty combo.
Overall, the Pirates bullpen fared better than the Cardinals during the season, posting a 2.89 ERA versus 3.45 for the Cards. That, combined with the uncertainty surrounding Mujica gives the Pirates the edge.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bench
With Allen Craig out, the Cardinals biggest bat off the bench, Matt Adams, has shifted to a starting role, leaving the Cards bench pretty barren. Shane Robinson provides some speed and the Cardinals will also have either Kozma or Descalso on the bench, depending on who's starting. But after that, its unclear who will even make the roster, let alone provide some sort of offense.
The Pirates actually strengthened their bench by acquiring Morneau and Byrd, pushing former starters Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata to reserve roles. Add in Gabby Sanchez and Travis Snider and the Pirates have a good mix of power and speed, as well as lefty/righty on their bench.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Intangibles
The Cardinals will be appearing in their 3rd straight postseason, while the Pirates will be making their first appearance since 1992.
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny will be making his second straight postseason appearance, but this is just his second year as a major league manager. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made the postseason twice with the Rockies and this is his first appearance with the Pirates. Hurdle has 11 years of managerial experience.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they have gone 54-27 this season.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
Based on the above, the teams are tied 6-6, indicating that I believe this will be a close series. Basically, I believe the Pirates have a better pitching staff, while the Cards have a better offense. Generally they say that good pitching beats good hitting, but I think that the Cardinals postseason experience and home field advantage will help them edge the Pirates in the end.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 5
Here's a look at the matchups between the two teams:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Russ Martin
Molina hit .319/.359/.477 on the year with 12 homers and 89 rbis. He is also considered one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in baseball.
Martin hit .226/.327/.377 with 15 homers and 55 rbis. He is no slouch defensively, throwing out 40% of basestealers (Molina threw out 43%), but he is no Molina either.
Molina is an MVP candidate and is by far the better player.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Justin Morneau
Adams has been on fire since Allen Craig went down with an injury. He hit .283/.335/.503 on the year with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, and turned up the heat in September to the tune of .315/.344/.609 with 8 homers. If he can carryover the late season success into October, he can be a valuable cog in the Cardinals offense.
Morneau is entering the twilight of his career. At 32, he MVP caliber days are gone, but he should not be overlooked either. He hit .259/.323/.411 on the season with 17 homers, but just .260/.370/.312 with no homers after being acquired by the Pirates.
This is a tough call. Adams had a better season, in limited action, but Morneau has more experience in playoff situations. I'll just go with my heart here.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Neil Walker
Carpenter had a stellar year in his first full season with the Cardinals, hitting .318/.392/.481. He led the league with 199 hits, 55 doubles and 126 runs scored. He may not be the best fielding second baseman in the league, but he's at least above average.
Walker had an average season with the Pirates, hitting .251/.339/.418 with 16 homers. He flashed some power in September, hitting 7 homers, but his average suffered (.207 for the month).
This is a pretty easy call, Carpenter is also in the MVP discussion. Walker, while better than average, just doesn't match up.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Daniel Descalso/Pete Kozma vs Jordy Mercer/Clint Barmes
While Kozma and Barmes started off as the starting shortstops for their respective teams, Descalso and Mercer got more starts down the stretch. Kozma (.217/.275/.273) and Barmes (.211/.249/.309) are known more for their defense, while Descalso (.238/.290/.366) and Mercer (.285/.336/.435) were used when their teams were looking for a little more offense.
Neither tandem is very inspiring, but I think the Bucs have a better platoon pair.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Third Base: David Freese vs Pedro Alvarez
Freese is a World Series hero and local boy made good, but his mediocre season (.262/.340/.381) nearly cost him his job. His 9 homers on the year, after hitting 20 last season, also were a disappointment.
Alvarez, on the other hand, set a career mark with 36 home runs, leading the NL, while also driving in 100. However, he strikes out a ton, leading the league with 186 K's, leading to just a .233 average.
Alvarez' power gives him an advantage over hometown hero Freese.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Starling Marte
He may be on the wrong side of 30, but Holliday keeps putting up impressive numbers, hitting .300/.389/.490 on the year with 22 homers and 94 rbis.
Marte does not have your typical power for a corner outfielder, hitting just 12 home runs on the year, but he does have a lot of speed, stealing 41 bases. He also hit pretty well in his first full season, with a .280/.343/.441 slash line.
Holliday's bat outweighs Marte's speed and defense, giving him the slight edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andrew McCutchen
Jay bounced back from a slow start to finish the season with a .276/.351/.370 line. He doesn't offer much power or speed, but plays solid defense and is a good all around player.
McCutchen is the Pirates MVP candidate, with a .317/.404/.508 line to go along with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He is arguably the best all around player on either team.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Marlon Byrd
Beltran season is a tale of two halves. He hit .309/.346/.533 with 19 home runs in the first half, but just .277/.329/.429 with 5 home runs in the second half, including a .217/.320/.313 line in September. However, he thrives in the postseason, with a career .363/.470/.782 line in the playoffs, including a .357/.440/.714 line last year with the Cardinals.
Byrd had a nice comeback year, hitting .291/.336/.511, including .318/.357/.486 after being acquired from the Mets. His 24 home runs this year are a career high. However, this will be the first postseason of his career.
Beltran experience and reputation for taking it up a notch in October gives him the edge over the likely NL comeback player of the year.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
Cardinals projected starters Adam Wainwright (1-0, 3.00 ERA), Lance Lynn (2-1, 5.60), Shelby Miller (0-4, 5.32) and Joe Kelly (3-1, 2.53) have had mixed results against the Pirates. Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 9 IP) is another option for the Cards. Wainwright and Lynn are scheduled to pitch the first two games against the Bucs, beyond that its anyone's guess as to who goes.
The Pirates have A.J. Burnett (3-1, 3.67 ERA against the Cards) lined up for the first game of the series, with Pedro Liriano (3-0, 0.75 ERA), likely to pitch the third game, after shutting down the Reds last night. Beyond those two, Charlie Morton (0-2, 7.90 ERA), Jeff Locke (1-1, 3.38) and Gerritt Cole (no record) are the other options against the Redbirds.
The good news for Cardinals fans is that the team will only have to face Liriano, who has dominated the Cards this year, once this series. It will also be interesting to see if Clint Hurdle will use Locke against the Cards, who have struggled against lefties all year. Locke has struggled in the second half (2-5, 6.00 ERA) and Hurdle may not trust him in the playoffs.
Another factor may be each team's rookie starters, Wacha and Cole. Both performed well down the stretch and could be given a start. However, managers tend to shy away from rookies in pressure situations.
Overall, this is almost too close to call, but I think I have to give the edge to the Pirates, mainly due to their top 2 starters Liriano and Burnett.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bullpen
Edward Mujica, who was the Cardinals closer for the majority of the season, was removed from that role in September, due to "general fatigue" (and, as a result, general ineffectiveness). Trevor Rosenthal stepped up and earned 3 saves during the last couple weeks of the season and will likely fill the closer role in the postseason.
Mujica uncertain status, puts pressure on a bullpen that has already seen its share of ups-and-downs this season. Seth Maness has done well in a setup role and the Cardinals have two quality lefties in Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist. Carlos Martinez could be pushed into a setup role as well.
The Pirates had their own injury concerns with their closer, Jason Grilli, after he missed a little over a month with a forearm strain. Mark Melancon filled in admirably in his absence, but their bullpen is much better with Grilli manning the closing duties. The Pirates bullpen also has a couple quality lefties in Justin Wilson and Tony Watson to counter the Cards lefty combo.
Overall, the Pirates bullpen fared better than the Cardinals during the season, posting a 2.89 ERA versus 3.45 for the Cards. That, combined with the uncertainty surrounding Mujica gives the Pirates the edge.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bench
With Allen Craig out, the Cardinals biggest bat off the bench, Matt Adams, has shifted to a starting role, leaving the Cards bench pretty barren. Shane Robinson provides some speed and the Cardinals will also have either Kozma or Descalso on the bench, depending on who's starting. But after that, its unclear who will even make the roster, let alone provide some sort of offense.
The Pirates actually strengthened their bench by acquiring Morneau and Byrd, pushing former starters Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata to reserve roles. Add in Gabby Sanchez and Travis Snider and the Pirates have a good mix of power and speed, as well as lefty/righty on their bench.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Intangibles
The Cardinals will be appearing in their 3rd straight postseason, while the Pirates will be making their first appearance since 1992.
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny will be making his second straight postseason appearance, but this is just his second year as a major league manager. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made the postseason twice with the Rockies and this is his first appearance with the Pirates. Hurdle has 11 years of managerial experience.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they have gone 54-27 this season.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
Based on the above, the teams are tied 6-6, indicating that I believe this will be a close series. Basically, I believe the Pirates have a better pitching staff, while the Cards have a better offense. Generally they say that good pitching beats good hitting, but I think that the Cardinals postseason experience and home field advantage will help them edge the Pirates in the end.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 5
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
What does the Cardinals starting pitching depth chart look like now?
The Cardinals pitching staff has seen many changes during the first two months, primarily due to injuries. The starting pitching depth that was once a strength of this team has taken the biggest hit, with 4 pitchers currently on the DL.
Here's a look at the Cardinals depth chart for their starting pitching prior to spring training:
After losing their 5th starter battle to Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal have been relegated to the bullpen and it appears that they are there to stay, at least for this season. With the emergence of Wacha and John Gast, along with relatively unknown Tyler Lyons, I would say the depth chart now looks more like this:
Gast's emergence helped the Cardinals to delay the callup of Wacha, but when Gast got injured, it finally forced the Cards hand. The question that looms is who will stay in the rotation once Westbrook, Gast and possibly even Carpenter return from the DL. But that's a topic for another day.
Here's a look at the Cardinals depth chart for their starting pitching prior to spring training:
- Adam Wainwright
- Chris Carpenter
- Jaime Garcia
- Jake Westbrook
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
- Joe Kelly
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Carlos Martinez
- Michael Wacha
After losing their 5th starter battle to Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal have been relegated to the bullpen and it appears that they are there to stay, at least for this season. With the emergence of Wacha and John Gast, along with relatively unknown Tyler Lyons, I would say the depth chart now looks more like this:
- Adam Wainwright
- Chris Carpenter (DL - could return in July?)
- Jake Westbrook (DL - expected back in 1-2 weeks)
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- John Gast (DL - out 'til end of June?)
- Tyler Lyons
- Carlos Martinez
- Jaime Garcia (DL - out for season)
Gast's emergence helped the Cardinals to delay the callup of Wacha, but when Gast got injured, it finally forced the Cards hand. The question that looms is who will stay in the rotation once Westbrook, Gast and possibly even Carpenter return from the DL. But that's a topic for another day.
Monday, June 3, 2013
Who might the Cardinals take at #19 during this week's draft?
Trying to predict the MLB draft is an effort in futility. Once you get past the first 5 or so prospects, its anybody's guess as to what might happen. Teams rank players differently, draft pools come into play and all hell breaks loose.
So, I'm not going to pretend that I know who the Cardinals are going to take with the 19th overall pick in this year's draft. Instead, I'm going to highlight a handful of prospects who intrigued me while looking through the rankings and that I think would be good picks for the Cards.
First off is shortstop J.P. Crawford of Lakewood, CA high school. ESPN (paysite) ranks him #12 while Baseball America ranks him #15 on their respective draft prospects lists.
A relative of Carl Crawford, J.P. has a good arm and the range to stay at short. Baseball America states that he projects as a "solid-average or slightly better defensive shortstop and an average hitter with fringy power." ESPN says that Crawford is "the one true, no-doubt shortstop in this draft class, putting him in top-10 consideration even though he's probably four or five years from the big leagues."
With their troubles at short, the Cardinals could snap up Crawford, should he fall to them at #19. However, the way ESPN is talking, he shouldn't last that long.
Next is Ryne Stanek, a right handed pitcher for the University of Arkansas. Both ESPN and Baseball America rank him #13.
Stanek has good stuff--his fastball ranges from 92-98 mph and he has a power slider--but his results don't always measure up. Baseball America says that "a tweak here or there could unlock Stanek’s frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold."
His stock has dropped some and if he keeps sliding he could possibly fall to the Cardinals. The Cards have shown an extraordinary ability to develop power arms in their recent history and Stanek could be one of those Michael Wacha sleeper-types who develop into a frontline starter.
One of the more intriguing pitchers on the board is Sean Manaea, a lefty from Indiana State University. He was the star of the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out 85 in 52 innings while showing a fastball that reached the mid-90's.
However, this year, compensating for an ankle injury led to hip issues, which have sapped his fastball and caused his stock to drop. He was only topping out at 91 mph in an early May start and scouts are trying to figure out who the real Manaea is.
Like Stanek, the Cards would probably be ecstatic if he were available to them at the #19 pick and would likely take a chance on him if he's available.
Finally, there's Alex Gonzalez, a right handed pitcher out of Oral Roberts University. ESPN ranks him #16 and Baseball America lists him at #19.
He has a fastball that sits in the low 90's with natural cut and sink and Baseball America says his slider is one of the best in the draft and gives him two plus pitches. He's one of those pitchers who may not have a high ceiling, but is pretty polished and will likely move quickly through the minors (kind of like Wacha).
Personally, I would like to see the Cardinals select either Stanek or Manaea with the #19 pick (if either is available). Both have upside but have slipped recently due to injury or lack of results. I think that, the way the Cards have been developing pitchers lately, if they got their hands on either of those too, they would flourish in the Cardinals organization.
So, I'm not going to pretend that I know who the Cardinals are going to take with the 19th overall pick in this year's draft. Instead, I'm going to highlight a handful of prospects who intrigued me while looking through the rankings and that I think would be good picks for the Cards.
First off is shortstop J.P. Crawford of Lakewood, CA high school. ESPN (paysite) ranks him #12 while Baseball America ranks him #15 on their respective draft prospects lists.
A relative of Carl Crawford, J.P. has a good arm and the range to stay at short. Baseball America states that he projects as a "solid-average or slightly better defensive shortstop and an average hitter with fringy power." ESPN says that Crawford is "the one true, no-doubt shortstop in this draft class, putting him in top-10 consideration even though he's probably four or five years from the big leagues."
With their troubles at short, the Cardinals could snap up Crawford, should he fall to them at #19. However, the way ESPN is talking, he shouldn't last that long.
Next is Ryne Stanek, a right handed pitcher for the University of Arkansas. Both ESPN and Baseball America rank him #13.
Stanek has good stuff--his fastball ranges from 92-98 mph and he has a power slider--but his results don't always measure up. Baseball America says that "a tweak here or there could unlock Stanek’s frontline potential, but other scouts see him as a future closer or set-up man in the Daniel Bard mold."
His stock has dropped some and if he keeps sliding he could possibly fall to the Cardinals. The Cards have shown an extraordinary ability to develop power arms in their recent history and Stanek could be one of those Michael Wacha sleeper-types who develop into a frontline starter.
One of the more intriguing pitchers on the board is Sean Manaea, a lefty from Indiana State University. He was the star of the Cape Cod League last summer, striking out 85 in 52 innings while showing a fastball that reached the mid-90's.
However, this year, compensating for an ankle injury led to hip issues, which have sapped his fastball and caused his stock to drop. He was only topping out at 91 mph in an early May start and scouts are trying to figure out who the real Manaea is.
Like Stanek, the Cards would probably be ecstatic if he were available to them at the #19 pick and would likely take a chance on him if he's available.
Finally, there's Alex Gonzalez, a right handed pitcher out of Oral Roberts University. ESPN ranks him #16 and Baseball America lists him at #19.
He has a fastball that sits in the low 90's with natural cut and sink and Baseball America says his slider is one of the best in the draft and gives him two plus pitches. He's one of those pitchers who may not have a high ceiling, but is pretty polished and will likely move quickly through the minors (kind of like Wacha).
Personally, I would like to see the Cardinals select either Stanek or Manaea with the #19 pick (if either is available). Both have upside but have slipped recently due to injury or lack of results. I think that, the way the Cards have been developing pitchers lately, if they got their hands on either of those too, they would flourish in the Cardinals organization.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Where would Cardinals be without their rookie pitchers?
Beset by injuries, the Cardinals have had to turn to the farm system early and often this year.
Normally, when you're dealing with young and unproven players, the results are at best mixed. However, so far the Cardinals rookies have come through. The latest example being Tyler Lyons, who started for the Cardinals last night and hurled 7 innings while allowing only 1 run.
Although Matt Adams and Pete Kozma have helped the Cardinals offense, the biggest impact that the rookies have had is on the pitching staff. So far this season, the Cardinals have utilized 6 rookie pitchers, including 3 starters and 3 relievers.
The rookie starters, led by Shelby Miller and recently joined by John Gast and Tyler Lyons, have gone 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 74 K's across 75 innings.
The relievers, led by Trevor Rosenthal along with Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness, have posted a 2.83 ERA with 45 K's in 38 innings.
This gives the rookie pitchers an overall record of 11-3 and a 2.38 ERA in 113 innings.
Not too shabby.
Better still, the Cardinals have yet to utilize their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha, thereby keeping his service clock from ticking.
Its nice to be able to tap into your farm system and get quality results and it is a big part of the reason the Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central with a 30-16 record.
The Cards rookies may still take some lumps this year, as teams get a book on them, and when that happens, we'll see who can adjust and who cannot. But, so far, I like what I have seen.
Normally, when you're dealing with young and unproven players, the results are at best mixed. However, so far the Cardinals rookies have come through. The latest example being Tyler Lyons, who started for the Cardinals last night and hurled 7 innings while allowing only 1 run.
Although Matt Adams and Pete Kozma have helped the Cardinals offense, the biggest impact that the rookies have had is on the pitching staff. So far this season, the Cardinals have utilized 6 rookie pitchers, including 3 starters and 3 relievers.
The rookie starters, led by Shelby Miller and recently joined by John Gast and Tyler Lyons, have gone 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 74 K's across 75 innings.
The relievers, led by Trevor Rosenthal along with Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness, have posted a 2.83 ERA with 45 K's in 38 innings.
This gives the rookie pitchers an overall record of 11-3 and a 2.38 ERA in 113 innings.
Not too shabby.
Better still, the Cardinals have yet to utilize their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha, thereby keeping his service clock from ticking.
Its nice to be able to tap into your farm system and get quality results and it is a big part of the reason the Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central with a 30-16 record.
The Cards rookies may still take some lumps this year, as teams get a book on them, and when that happens, we'll see who can adjust and who cannot. But, so far, I like what I have seen.
Thursday, April 18, 2013
Could the Cardinals make a play for David Price?
As the reigning Cy Young award winner and having been through the
arbitration process twice already, the Tampa Bay Rays' David Price is
getting expensive. He is already earning $10 million this year and can
be expected to double that over his next two arbitration years.
What this means is that the Rays, as is their M.O., will probably look to trade Price, maybe as soon as this July, if they are out of contention.
As a result, people are already starting to speculate as to where Price might end up if he's traded. In an interview with Mut & Merloni, ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on such a scenario, suggesting that the Cubs could make a play for the lefty, as could the Red Sox.
However, what caught my attention is this quote from Olney:
Sure, Price is an ace and adding him to a rotation that includes Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia would certainly make the Cardinals World Series favorites. However, you have to consider the cost.
First, any trade for Price would likely require the Cards to give up prized prospect Oscar Taveras. The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals over the winter and received the Royals top prospect Wil Myers in return. Price is better than either of those pitchers and will require a bigger return. So, Taveras would probably just be the starting point.
Second, the Cardinals just signed Adam Wainwright to an extension for about $20 million a year starting next year. Are they going to want to commit another $15 million plus to Price? The Cardinals are not the Yankees and even with some payroll flexibility next year, they probably don't have the room for another big contract.
Finally, this goes against the Cardinals new philosophy of building from within. Under the old Walt Jockety regime, they Cards utilized their prospects for deadline trades to help them make the playoffs. Now, under John Mozeliak, the Cardinals have focused more on developing their prospects and utilizing them to fill holes at the major league level.
Bottom line, I do not see the Cardinals becoming a player in the David Price sweepstakes. Let the Cubs (or some other team) gut their farm system and bloat their payroll to acquire Price. Meanwhile, the Cards will continue to ride their wave of prospects to the playoffs.
What this means is that the Rays, as is their M.O., will probably look to trade Price, maybe as soon as this July, if they are out of contention.
As a result, people are already starting to speculate as to where Price might end up if he's traded. In an interview with Mut & Merloni, ESPN's Buster Olney speculated on such a scenario, suggesting that the Cubs could make a play for the lefty, as could the Red Sox.
However, what caught my attention is this quote from Olney:
"...the Cardinals being the team, that if they ever stuck out their elbows, because the farm situation is so deep, they could blow everybody out of the water in a bidding situation.”Obviously, with baseball's best farm system, the Cardinals have the talent to acquire Price, if they so desire. The question is would they want to?
Sure, Price is an ace and adding him to a rotation that includes Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia would certainly make the Cardinals World Series favorites. However, you have to consider the cost.
First, any trade for Price would likely require the Cards to give up prized prospect Oscar Taveras. The Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals over the winter and received the Royals top prospect Wil Myers in return. Price is better than either of those pitchers and will require a bigger return. So, Taveras would probably just be the starting point.
Second, the Cardinals just signed Adam Wainwright to an extension for about $20 million a year starting next year. Are they going to want to commit another $15 million plus to Price? The Cardinals are not the Yankees and even with some payroll flexibility next year, they probably don't have the room for another big contract.
Finally, this goes against the Cardinals new philosophy of building from within. Under the old Walt Jockety regime, they Cards utilized their prospects for deadline trades to help them make the playoffs. Now, under John Mozeliak, the Cardinals have focused more on developing their prospects and utilizing them to fill holes at the major league level.
Bottom line, I do not see the Cardinals becoming a player in the David Price sweepstakes. Let the Cubs (or some other team) gut their farm system and bloat their payroll to acquire Price. Meanwhile, the Cards will continue to ride their wave of prospects to the playoffs.
Sunday, April 14, 2013
External closing options for the Cardinals
Last week I took a look at some of the internal options for the Cardinals at closer and, with Mitchell Boggs blowing another save today along with Trevor Rosenthal throwing a shaky 8th inning, its time to look at some external options.
Trade Candidates
While the trade market usually doesn't develop until July, there are a couple players who could be moved early.
Carlos Marmol, Cubs
The Cardinals could get Marmol for a song, however why would they want him? Marmol has already lost the closer job to Kyuji Fujikawa and, even after Fujikawa recently got hurt, Marmol was not in the discussion for the job. The Cardinals certainly have better internal options that to choose this route.
Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
Betancourt was the subject of trade rumors last season and certainly could be on the block again this year. He saved 31 games for the Rockies last year and already has 4 saves this year. However, at 38 and set to become a free agent after this season, the Rocks could move him early, while his value is high, and move Rex Brothers or Wilton Lopez into the closer role.
Free Agents
Francisco Rodriguez
After setting the season save mark with 62 back in 2008, Rodriguez has seen his stock dropped dramatically the last few years, posting the highest ERA of his career (4.38) last year. However, he still struck out a batter per inning last year and may benefit from a change in scenery. He is only 31 years old and could come relatively cheap.
Brian Wilson
Wilson is still working on building up his arm strength after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He does not want to pitch for teams until he is 100%, which may not be until the end of the month. He also apparently only wants to sign with a team that will make him the closer. Cardinals fans most likely would embrace "The Beard" much like the Mad Hungarian back in the day and it would make for an interesting addition to the team. But can the Cardinals afford to wait until May to settle their closer role?
If I had to rank the external options, I would rank them Wilson, Betancourt, Rodriguez and Marmol. None of them is a sure thing, but if the Cardinals could somehow lure Wilson with a one year contract, it might be worth the risk.
Trade Candidates
While the trade market usually doesn't develop until July, there are a couple players who could be moved early.
Carlos Marmol, Cubs
The Cardinals could get Marmol for a song, however why would they want him? Marmol has already lost the closer job to Kyuji Fujikawa and, even after Fujikawa recently got hurt, Marmol was not in the discussion for the job. The Cardinals certainly have better internal options that to choose this route.
Rafael Betancourt, Rockies
Betancourt was the subject of trade rumors last season and certainly could be on the block again this year. He saved 31 games for the Rockies last year and already has 4 saves this year. However, at 38 and set to become a free agent after this season, the Rocks could move him early, while his value is high, and move Rex Brothers or Wilton Lopez into the closer role.
Free Agents
Francisco Rodriguez
After setting the season save mark with 62 back in 2008, Rodriguez has seen his stock dropped dramatically the last few years, posting the highest ERA of his career (4.38) last year. However, he still struck out a batter per inning last year and may benefit from a change in scenery. He is only 31 years old and could come relatively cheap.
Brian Wilson
Wilson is still working on building up his arm strength after undergoing Tommy John surgery last April. He does not want to pitch for teams until he is 100%, which may not be until the end of the month. He also apparently only wants to sign with a team that will make him the closer. Cardinals fans most likely would embrace "The Beard" much like the Mad Hungarian back in the day and it would make for an interesting addition to the team. But can the Cardinals afford to wait until May to settle their closer role?
If I had to rank the external options, I would rank them Wilson, Betancourt, Rodriguez and Marmol. None of them is a sure thing, but if the Cardinals could somehow lure Wilson with a one year contract, it might be worth the risk.
Tuesday, April 9, 2013
Jason Motte has torn UCL. Could Michael Wacha be an option as closer?
According to Jennifer Langosch, an MRI on Jason Motte's arm today revealed a tear in his ulnar collateral ligament. He will be shut down until May 1st and then checked again for any improvement. If none, he will likely undergo Tommy John surgery.
This is a big blow for a Cardinals bullpen that has struggled so far this year.
With their closer likely out for the year and Trevor Rosenthal (2 blown saves) and Mitchell Boggs (1 blown save, 14.54 ERA) struggling, the Cardinals could look to other options to fill the closer role.
Here are some possibilities:
Edward Mujica
Mujica has been very effective since the Cards acquired him from the Marlins last summer, posting a 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He main asset is his control, allowing only 1.2 BB/9 with the Cards and 1.5 BB/9 for his career. However, he only has 4 saves in his career.
Fernando Salas
Salas closed for the Cardinals in 2011, compiling 24 saves and a sparkling 2.28 ERA, but struggled last year (4.30 ERA) and hasn't fared much better in the early going this year 8.10 ERA.
Eduardo Sanchez
Sanchez is another former closer for the Cards, having saved 5 games in 2011. However, he struggled with his command last year (34 walks in 42.2 IP) and, although he has shown better form this year, the Cardinals will likely want him to prove himself in a lesser role before handing the closer reigns over to him.
Carlos Martinez
Martinez has the 2 pitch arsenal to be a good closer in the majors, with a blazing fastball that sits in the high 90's and a biting curveball. However, visa issues delayed his start to the season and he is currently in extended spring training.
Michael Wacha
Wacha surprised many with a strong spring this year and showed last year that he is comfortable pitching out of the pen, posting a 0.86 ERA in 21 IP (mostly in relief). However, the Cardinals would probably prefer to keep him as a starter to help him develop his pitches.
Overall, the Cardinals will probably give Boggs and/or Rosenthal a long leash, but beyond Boggs and Rosenthal, the best bet for saves would probably be Mujica. Wacha could be a possibility, but the Cards would have to be desperate to turn to him (which just might happen, the way things are going).
This is a big blow for a Cardinals bullpen that has struggled so far this year.
With their closer likely out for the year and Trevor Rosenthal (2 blown saves) and Mitchell Boggs (1 blown save, 14.54 ERA) struggling, the Cardinals could look to other options to fill the closer role.
Here are some possibilities:
Edward Mujica
Mujica has been very effective since the Cards acquired him from the Marlins last summer, posting a 1.21 ERA in 29.2 IP. He main asset is his control, allowing only 1.2 BB/9 with the Cards and 1.5 BB/9 for his career. However, he only has 4 saves in his career.
Fernando Salas
Salas closed for the Cardinals in 2011, compiling 24 saves and a sparkling 2.28 ERA, but struggled last year (4.30 ERA) and hasn't fared much better in the early going this year 8.10 ERA.
Eduardo Sanchez
Sanchez is another former closer for the Cards, having saved 5 games in 2011. However, he struggled with his command last year (34 walks in 42.2 IP) and, although he has shown better form this year, the Cardinals will likely want him to prove himself in a lesser role before handing the closer reigns over to him.
Carlos Martinez
Martinez has the 2 pitch arsenal to be a good closer in the majors, with a blazing fastball that sits in the high 90's and a biting curveball. However, visa issues delayed his start to the season and he is currently in extended spring training.
Michael Wacha
Wacha surprised many with a strong spring this year and showed last year that he is comfortable pitching out of the pen, posting a 0.86 ERA in 21 IP (mostly in relief). However, the Cardinals would probably prefer to keep him as a starter to help him develop his pitches.
Overall, the Cardinals will probably give Boggs and/or Rosenthal a long leash, but beyond Boggs and Rosenthal, the best bet for saves would probably be Mujica. Wacha could be a possibility, but the Cards would have to be desperate to turn to him (which just might happen, the way things are going).
Friday, April 5, 2013
What can we expect from Shelby Miller this season?
If you are like me, you are eagerly anticipating Shelby Miller's season debut tomorrow. After beating out Joe Kelly for the 5th starter job, all Cardinals fans are waiting to see if he can live up to the hype.
However, as often happens, it is rare that a pitcher lives up to the hype. Take for example the top 5 starting pitchers in the 2012 NL Cy Young voting. Here is how those 5 pitchers performed in their rookie seasons:
However, as often happens, it is rare that a pitcher lives up to the hype. Take for example the top 5 starting pitchers in the 2012 NL Cy Young voting. Here is how those 5 pitchers performed in their rookie seasons:
1. R.A. Dickey
| Year | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2003 | 9 | 8 | .529 | 5.09 | 38 | 13 | 116.2 | 135 | 66 | 38 | 94 | 1.483 |
| Year | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 5 | 5 | .500 | 4.26 | 22 | 21 | 107.2 | 109 | 51 | 52 | 100 | 1.495 |
| Year | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2009 | 6 | 7 | .462 | 5.75 | 20 | 17 | 98.2 | 113 | 63 | 56 | 109 | 1.713 |
| Year | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2008 | 9 | 14 | .391 | 4.81 | 31 | 31 | 174.0 | 178 | 93 | 68 | 158 | 1.414 |
| Year | W | L | G | GS | IP | H | ER | BB | SO | |||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2006 | 13 | 12 | .520 | 4.15 | 32 | 31 | 190.2 | 157 | 88 | 87 | 179 | 1.280 |
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 4/5/2013.
As you can see, out of the 5 Cy Young caliber pitchers from 2012, only one (Cain) had a decent rookie season. That's not to say that Shelby Miller won't have a good year. But we shouldn't be surprise if he struggles some this year.
So, what should we expect from Miller this year? Fangraphs has 4 different projections for Miller this year, ranging from a 3.53 ERA to a 4.29 ERA for an average of 3.96, which seems like a reasonable expectation for him.
If he can post a ERA under 4.00 for the year and get double digit wins, I think most fans would be happy.
Generated 4/5/2013.
As you can see, out of the 5 Cy Young caliber pitchers from 2012, only one (Cain) had a decent rookie season. That's not to say that Shelby Miller won't have a good year. But we shouldn't be surprise if he struggles some this year.
So, what should we expect from Miller this year? Fangraphs has 4 different projections for Miller this year, ranging from a 3.53 ERA to a 4.29 ERA for an average of 3.96, which seems like a reasonable expectation for him.
If he can post a ERA under 4.00 for the year and get double digit wins, I think most fans would be happy.
Wednesday, April 3, 2013
Is Yadier Molina more valuable than Albert Pujols?
A few months after the St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Las Angeles Angels, they signed catcher Yadier Molina to an extension. One can infer from the timing that, losing Pujols freed up the money the Cards needed to make the Molina deal and, with that, the Cardinals made Molina the face of the franchise.
Of course, ask any Cardinals fan back then who they would rather have, they would say Pujols. Now, I'm not so sure.
In his first American League season, Pujols struggled out of the gate and had the worst season of his career (albeit still a very good season). Meanwhile, Molina had a breakout year for the Cards.
Which leads to the question is Molina more valuable that Pujols, at least going forward?
Looking at their raw stats, there is not much difference between the two:
Pujols - .285/.343/.516, .859 OPS (141 OPS+), 30 HR's
Molina - .315/.373/.501, .874 OPS (137 OPS+), 22 HR's
However, when you look at their sabermetrics, its pretty clear that Molina had the better year.
Take, for instance, their 2012 wins above replacement (WAR) per Fangraphs:
Pujols 3.6 WAR
Molina 6.2 WAR
In addition, Pujols has been in a steady decline over the last few years. Here are his WAR's from 2009 to 2012:
2009: 8.7
2010: 7.0
2011: 4.3
2012: 3.6
At the same time, Molina's WARs have increased the last few years:
2010: 2.6
2011: 4.4
2012: 6.2
Pujols, at 33, is 3 years older than Molina (and some still question if that is Pujols' true age) and appears to be in the decline phase of his career. While Molina is still in his prime.
Plus, WAR cannot measure the intangibles that Molina brings, such as handling the pitching staff, as well as things like framing pitches to get a called strike.
That's not to say that Pujols cannot have a bounce back year or that Molina might, as a catcher, go into a decline earlier than most everyday players. But, going forward, I think that Molina will be the better value and considering that he makes $10 million less a year, he is an absolute bargain.
Of course, ask any Cardinals fan back then who they would rather have, they would say Pujols. Now, I'm not so sure.
In his first American League season, Pujols struggled out of the gate and had the worst season of his career (albeit still a very good season). Meanwhile, Molina had a breakout year for the Cards.
Which leads to the question is Molina more valuable that Pujols, at least going forward?
Looking at their raw stats, there is not much difference between the two:
Pujols - .285/.343/.516, .859 OPS (141 OPS+), 30 HR's
Molina - .315/.373/.501, .874 OPS (137 OPS+), 22 HR's
However, when you look at their sabermetrics, its pretty clear that Molina had the better year.
Take, for instance, their 2012 wins above replacement (WAR) per Fangraphs:
Pujols 3.6 WAR
Molina 6.2 WAR
In addition, Pujols has been in a steady decline over the last few years. Here are his WAR's from 2009 to 2012:
2009: 8.7
2010: 7.0
2011: 4.3
2012: 3.6
At the same time, Molina's WARs have increased the last few years:
2010: 2.6
2011: 4.4
2012: 6.2
Pujols, at 33, is 3 years older than Molina (and some still question if that is Pujols' true age) and appears to be in the decline phase of his career. While Molina is still in his prime.
Plus, WAR cannot measure the intangibles that Molina brings, such as handling the pitching staff, as well as things like framing pitches to get a called strike.
That's not to say that Pujols cannot have a bounce back year or that Molina might, as a catcher, go into a decline earlier than most everyday players. But, going forward, I think that Molina will be the better value and considering that he makes $10 million less a year, he is an absolute bargain.
Monday, April 1, 2013
Do the Cardinals have what it takes to catch the Reds?
If you listen to the various pundits out there, the St. Louis Cardinals are predicted by many to finish no better than second to the Cincinnati Reds. Even the Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon is calling this a "transition" year for the Cards, as they deal with season-ending injuries to Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter, while also breaking in youngsters like Shelby Miller and Matt Carpenter.
While its true that the Cardinals are going through a transition phase, I do not think that should preclude them from competing for the NL Central title.
First of all, the Cardinals finished with the second best offense, in terms of runs scored, in the NL last year and I do not see them slipping any this year. Allen Craig will be hitting from day one this year and, once David Freese is healthy, Matt Carpenter will shift over to second to boost the offense at that position. The loss of Rafael Furcal hurts a little, but after his strong April and May last year, he was really a non-factor.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals lost "ace" Kyle Lohse and many people are putting the onus on Shelby Miller to replace him. However, the Cardinals are counting on Adam Wainwright to be their ace and he showed in the second half last year (7-5 with a 3.28 ERA) that he is more than capable of reclaiming that status. Thus, Miller just needs to give the Cardinals what Wainwright produced last year, which was roughly a league-average 3.94 ERA (97 ERA+) over 198 innings. He may not be able to handle the innings load, but I think he can be at least a league-average pitcher and someone like Joe Kelly can make up the extra innings.
The bullpen took a bit of a hit with the loss of Jason Motte for the foreseeable future. There is no timetable for his return, which has many concerned. However, the Cards are still in good shape as Mitchell Boggs should be able to step in and fill the void, with Trevor Rosenthal as the new setup man. In addition, last year's acquisition, Edward Mujica, should help and Fernando Salas appears to have regained his 2011 form.
Finally, with the top farm system in baseball, the Cardinals can tap into the system to add depth throughout the year. Spring phenom, Michael Wacha, is only one step away should Kelly falter. Carlos Martinez could be ready to help out by mid-year. Oscar Taveras is ready should any of the outfielders suffer an injury and we cannot forget about the less heralded prospects, such as control artist Seth Maness and on-base machine Mike O'Neill, who could also have an impact at the major league level.
Let others doubt the Cardinals or call it a transition year. I think the talent is there to surprise a lot of those people, including the Reds.
While its true that the Cardinals are going through a transition phase, I do not think that should preclude them from competing for the NL Central title.
First of all, the Cardinals finished with the second best offense, in terms of runs scored, in the NL last year and I do not see them slipping any this year. Allen Craig will be hitting from day one this year and, once David Freese is healthy, Matt Carpenter will shift over to second to boost the offense at that position. The loss of Rafael Furcal hurts a little, but after his strong April and May last year, he was really a non-factor.
On the pitching side, the Cardinals lost "ace" Kyle Lohse and many people are putting the onus on Shelby Miller to replace him. However, the Cardinals are counting on Adam Wainwright to be their ace and he showed in the second half last year (7-5 with a 3.28 ERA) that he is more than capable of reclaiming that status. Thus, Miller just needs to give the Cardinals what Wainwright produced last year, which was roughly a league-average 3.94 ERA (97 ERA+) over 198 innings. He may not be able to handle the innings load, but I think he can be at least a league-average pitcher and someone like Joe Kelly can make up the extra innings.
The bullpen took a bit of a hit with the loss of Jason Motte for the foreseeable future. There is no timetable for his return, which has many concerned. However, the Cards are still in good shape as Mitchell Boggs should be able to step in and fill the void, with Trevor Rosenthal as the new setup man. In addition, last year's acquisition, Edward Mujica, should help and Fernando Salas appears to have regained his 2011 form.
Finally, with the top farm system in baseball, the Cardinals can tap into the system to add depth throughout the year. Spring phenom, Michael Wacha, is only one step away should Kelly falter. Carlos Martinez could be ready to help out by mid-year. Oscar Taveras is ready should any of the outfielders suffer an injury and we cannot forget about the less heralded prospects, such as control artist Seth Maness and on-base machine Mike O'Neill, who could also have an impact at the major league level.
Let others doubt the Cardinals or call it a transition year. I think the talent is there to surprise a lot of those people, including the Reds.
Wednesday, March 27, 2013
Clock is winding down on Adam Wainwright extension
With 5 days until opening day, the Cardinals and agent Steve Hammond are under the gun to try to get a contract extension worked out for Adam Wainwright.
So far, there has been a lot of positive vibes coming out of the negotiations over the last week, here's some of what's been reported on the ongoing negotiations:
A week ago, according to Derrick Goold, Hammond stated that he hoped the sides built momentum during a lengthy meeting.
"We want to get something done before Spring Training ends, and that’s our goal," Hammond told Goold. "They have communicated clearly that they want to keep Adam here, and we’ve communicated that he wants to be here. We have to keep working on that."
Jon Heyman reported that the negotiations appeared to be moving in the right direction with Wainwright saying "I think both sides feel confident something could get done."
Chris Cwik of CBS Sports estimated that the cost of an extension for Wainwright would run in the $21 to $23.5 million range.
Finally, Derrick Goold reported today that both sides expressed optimism that a deal can be reached before opening day.
Overall, I like the sense of optimism, but I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. The Cardinals have been down this road before with Albert Pujols and we all know how that turned out.
If the Cardinals do not get an extension done before opening day, I do not like their chances of retaining Wainwright beyond this year. Once the season ends and he can become a free agent, I think the temptation would be too great for him to test the waters at that point.
Personally, I hope that they can come to an agreement with Waino, but I wouldn't go beyond 4 years and say $95 million. I would give him a little more per year, if it meant a shorter contract. Even if Wainwright doesn't live up to his usual standards for those 4 years, the wisdom and knowledge he can impart on the Cardinals young pitchers will be invaluable.
So far, there has been a lot of positive vibes coming out of the negotiations over the last week, here's some of what's been reported on the ongoing negotiations:
A week ago, according to Derrick Goold, Hammond stated that he hoped the sides built momentum during a lengthy meeting.
"We want to get something done before Spring Training ends, and that’s our goal," Hammond told Goold. "They have communicated clearly that they want to keep Adam here, and we’ve communicated that he wants to be here. We have to keep working on that."
Jon Heyman reported that the negotiations appeared to be moving in the right direction with Wainwright saying "I think both sides feel confident something could get done."
Chris Cwik of CBS Sports estimated that the cost of an extension for Wainwright would run in the $21 to $23.5 million range.
Finally, Derrick Goold reported today that both sides expressed optimism that a deal can be reached before opening day.
Overall, I like the sense of optimism, but I'm not going to count my chickens before they're hatched. The Cardinals have been down this road before with Albert Pujols and we all know how that turned out.
If the Cardinals do not get an extension done before opening day, I do not like their chances of retaining Wainwright beyond this year. Once the season ends and he can become a free agent, I think the temptation would be too great for him to test the waters at that point.
Personally, I hope that they can come to an agreement with Waino, but I wouldn't go beyond 4 years and say $95 million. I would give him a little more per year, if it meant a shorter contract. Even if Wainwright doesn't live up to his usual standards for those 4 years, the wisdom and knowledge he can impart on the Cardinals young pitchers will be invaluable.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
CFCL Bold Predictions: NL Central
Continuing the United Cardinals Bloggers March project, today I'll take a look at the NL Central or the only division that matters. All of my fellow Cardinals bloggers will be making their predictions as well and you can follow them at the UCB website.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago Cubs
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
Saturday, March 23, 2013
Does Jason Motte injury make Shelby Miller the 5th starter for the Cardinals?
Although they are both scheduled to pitch again on Monday, a couple of recent news items have people speculating that Shelby Miller will beat out Joe Kelly for the 5th starter job.
The first is that Miller will be making the start on Monday with Kelly working in relief. This is the second time in a row that Miller has gotten the start and an indication that the Cards want him to get into a pre-start routine.
The second, and most important news, is that Jason Motte will likely start the season on the DL. While it may not seem to have an impact on the 5th starter role, it does. For one thing, it means that Kelly, Miller and Fernando Salas will all most likely make the opening day roster and since Kelly is better suited for relieving, it follows that he would be the long reliever in the pen.
Motte's injury pushes Mitchell Boggs into the closer role, with Trevor Rosenthal as the likely setup man.
Here is the projected starting rotation and bullpen:
Starting Rotation
In any case, the roster is nearly set. We'll see what kind of impact the game Monday has on Miller and Kelly's statuses.
The first is that Miller will be making the start on Monday with Kelly working in relief. This is the second time in a row that Miller has gotten the start and an indication that the Cards want him to get into a pre-start routine.
The second, and most important news, is that Jason Motte will likely start the season on the DL. While it may not seem to have an impact on the 5th starter role, it does. For one thing, it means that Kelly, Miller and Fernando Salas will all most likely make the opening day roster and since Kelly is better suited for relieving, it follows that he would be the long reliever in the pen.
Motte's injury pushes Mitchell Boggs into the closer role, with Trevor Rosenthal as the likely setup man.
Here is the projected starting rotation and bullpen:
Starting Rotation
- Adam Wainwright
- Jake Westbrook
- Jaime Garcia
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
- Mitchell Boggs - Closer
- Trevor Rosenthal - Setup
- Edward Mujica - Middle
- Fernando Salas - Middle
- Joe Kelly - Long
- Randy Choate - LOOGY
- Marc Rzepczynski - LOOGY
In any case, the roster is nearly set. We'll see what kind of impact the game Monday has on Miller and Kelly's statuses.
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