Cardinals clinch playoff spot, but division title remains their focus

With the Nationals loss yesterday, the Cardinals officially clinched a playoff spot.  However, there was no celebrating as the team remains focused on winning the division.

The Cardinals were able to increase their NL Central lead to 2 games by taking 2 of 3 from the Brewers over the weekend while the Reds took 2 of 3 from the Pirates.

With 6 games to play, the Cardinals magic number to clinch the Central is 5.

First up, the Cards will have to deal with a Nationals team that is fighting for their playoff lives.  With an elimination number of 2, the Nats can ill afford to lose any more games, which should make for an interesting series.

In addition, the Cardinals are only 1 1/2 games behind the Braves for the best record in the NL and thus home field advantage.  But, first things first, the Cardinals need to clinch the division before they even think about that.

The Pirates and Reds get a little break from each other as they get to square off against the lowly Cubs and Mets, respectively.  If the Cards struggle against the Nats, while the Pirates and Reds are beating up on the bottom-feeders, things could get interesting in a hurry.

Obviously, there is a big difference between winning the division and the Wild Card, ever since the second Wild Card team was added last year.  Now the Wild Card teams play a single game elimination before the winner squares off against a division winner.  The Cardinals would obviously prefer to be in a 5 game playoff situation rather than a one-and-done game.

In any case, this is what baseball is all about.  Playoff chases coming down to the wire and fans on the edge of their seats.  No one will ever forget the final day of the 2011 season and, while I won't guarantee that this season will be more exciting than that, its shaping up to be another memorable finish.

Cardinals cannot shake the pesky Pirates and Reds

After sweeping the Pirates in a weekend series on September 6-8, the Cardinals held a 1.5 game lead on both the Pirates and Reds heading into a home stretch that favored the Redbirds.

However, the Pirates have proved that they will not go quietly into that good night, as they have proceeded to go 6-2 since then, while the Cardinals have sputtered to a 4-3 record, putting the two teams into a tie for first.

In the meantime, the Reds have treaded water, going 3-4 during that stretch, to remain within striking distance, 2.5 games behind the Pirates and Cardinals.

With 12 games left for the Pirates and Cards and 11 for the Reds, we are now in crunch time.  All 3 teams would prefer to claim the division title and avoid the one-game Wild Card playoff. 

In addition, the division leaders are only 2.5 games behind the Braves for the best record in the NL and home field advantage in the playoffs.

So there is a lot at stake as we finish off these last two weeks of the season. 

The potential saving grace for the Cardinals is that the Pirates and Reds play 6 of their last 9 games against each other, meaning one of them has to lose.  If the Cards can take care of business against the Brewers, Nats and Cubs, they should be in good shape. 
 

Do the Cardinals have what it takes to catch the Reds?

If you listen to the various pundits out there, the St. Louis Cardinals are predicted by many to finish no better than second to the Cincinnati Reds.  Even the Post-Dispatch's Jeff Gordon is calling this a "transition" year for the Cards, as they deal with season-ending injuries to Rafael Furcal and Chris Carpenter, while also breaking in youngsters like Shelby Miller and Matt Carpenter.

While its true that the Cardinals are going through a transition phase, I do not think that should preclude them from competing for the NL Central title.

First of all, the Cardinals finished with the second best offense, in terms of runs scored, in the NL last year and I do not see them slipping any this year.  Allen Craig will be hitting from day one this year and, once David Freese is healthy, Matt Carpenter will shift over to second to boost the offense at that position.  The loss of Rafael Furcal hurts a little, but after his strong April and May last year, he was really a non-factor.  

On the pitching side, the Cardinals lost "ace" Kyle Lohse and many people are putting the onus on Shelby Miller to replace him.  However, the Cardinals are counting on Adam Wainwright to be their ace and he showed in the second half last year (7-5 with a 3.28 ERA) that he is more than capable of reclaiming that status.  Thus, Miller just needs to give the Cardinals what Wainwright produced last year, which was roughly a league-average 3.94 ERA (97 ERA+) over 198 innings.  He may not be able to handle the innings load, but I think he can be at least a league-average pitcher and someone like Joe Kelly can make up the extra innings.

The bullpen took a bit of a hit with the loss of Jason Motte for the foreseeable future.  There is no timetable for his return, which has many concerned.  However, the Cards are still in good shape as Mitchell Boggs should be able to step in and fill the void, with Trevor Rosenthal as the new setup man.  In addition, last year's acquisition, Edward Mujica, should help and Fernando Salas appears to have regained his 2011 form.
Finally, with the top farm system in baseball, the Cardinals can tap into the system to add depth throughout the year.  Spring phenom, Michael Wacha, is only one step away should Kelly falter.  Carlos Martinez could be ready to help out by mid-year.  Oscar Taveras is ready should any of the outfielders suffer an injury and we cannot forget about the less heralded prospects, such as control artist Seth Maness and on-base machine Mike O'Neill, who could also have an impact at the major league level.

Let others doubt the Cardinals or call it a transition year.  I think the talent is there to surprise a lot of those people, including the Reds.