In case you missed it, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak was a recent guest on Jim Bowden's "The GM's Office" video blog on ESPN.com. Steve Adams of mlbtraderumors.com has a nice synopsis of the highlights from the interview, but its worth checking out the video in its entirety.
Whenever I see quotes or hear soundbites from a GM around this time of year, I always like to try to think "what is he really saying", as you can often read between the lines and get to the underlying meaning of what they are saying.
With that in mind, I tried this exercise using some of the quotes from his interview and here's what I got out of it (your results may vary):
Quote #1: It's "clearly a seller's market".
What he's Really Saying - "Don't expect us to make any moves anytime soon, until the asking prices come down."
From what we have seen from some of the early trades, the seller's are getting a pretty good return on the players. Knowing how much Mo values his prospects, he is not going to make a move unless the asking price comes down.
Quote #2: “We’re certainly not in this for the short term. I think one of the
good things about the St. Louis Cardinals is the ability to have
sustained success, and we want to continue that” (when asked about David Price).
What he's really saying - "We're not going to mortgage the future for a short-term fix."
While acquiring David Price would be nice and could certainly help this team this year and next, the Cardinals will not make a move unless they feel the cost is reasonable and helps the team in the long run. In other words, the only way they would acquire Price is if the asking price is not too high and he agrees to a long-term extension before the trade is completed.
Quote #3: "…looking at the next two months, if we could find a way to sort of bridge that gap between now and the time we may get [Michael] Wacha back, I think we want to try to do that” (when asked about acquiring a starting pitcher).
What he's really saying - "Despite what I said before, we could really use some more starting pitching."
Mozeliak goes on to discuss Michael Wacha's unusual injury and the uncertainty surrounding it, making it all the more obvious that he's looking to add another starting pitcher. However, the "bridge that gap" part makes it sound like he's looking more for a stop-gap type pitcher (i.e. Jake Peavy) than an ace (aka Price).
Quote #4: “One thing we’ve always said is we’d like to see what Tony Cruz is capable of doing on a day in and day out basis. But having said that, we also want to give ourselves the best chance to win” (when asked about whether the team is comfortable with Cruz and George Kottaras manning the catcher's spot).
What he's really saying - "Cruz is a nice backup, but we need someone better to be our starter."
It doesn't help Cruz' cause that he's hitting only .167 (5 for 30) since replacing Yadier Molina in the starting lineup. That is probably why the Cards' interest in Kurt Suzuki has increased recently. Per Jon Heyman, the Cardinals are Orioles are both showing the most interest in trading for the Twins' Suzuki. Mike Berardino of the St.Paul Pioneer Press indicated that the Twins and Sukuki are far apart on extension talks, making a trade more likely.
Overall, its pretty obvious from all the recent rumors that the Cardinals are looking for starting pitching and it appears they may be looking for an upgrade at catcher as well. All-in-all, it should make for an interesting week leading up to the deadline.
Showing posts with label Michael Wacha. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Michael Wacha. Show all posts
Friday, July 25, 2014
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Cardinals are taking a hard look at David Price
Usually when it comes to trade rumors, you can discount much of what is being thrown around as just that, rumors. However, when more than one person is hinting at someone, chances are that it is true. Like they say "where there's smoke, there's fire".
That appears to be the case when it comes to the Cardinals and Tampa Bay's David Price. According to Joe Strauss, the Cardinals remain "fixated" on Price, while Derrick Goold indicates that the Cards interest in Price is reminiscent of their pursuit of Matt Holliday in 2009.
This is a bit surprising, as we were told just a week and a half ago, by Goold himself, that the Cardinals were looking for "hitting not (Jake) Peavy". Of course, Price is not Peavy and, as Strauss points out, beyond Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, there are many questions surrounding the Cards starting rotation.
Despite the loss of Yadier Molina, there is still the belief that the hitting will come around. Matt Holliday is starting to heat up. He is hitting .304/.407/.522 in July and Allen Craig is too good of a hitter to be hitting only .244.
There have been signs of life with the offense and I think that the Cardinals just need to string a few good games together to get on track. However, the way this season has gone so far, that's a big if.
On the flip side, despite being 3rd in the NL in starters ERA, the Cardinals pitching has been shaky as of late. Shelby Miller was recently demoted to the bullpen after posting a 7.30 ERA in his last 5 starts, with the Cards saying he looks "tired". Carlos Martinez has been maddeningly inconsistent, as most rookies are, and Joe Kelly just came off the DL as is still trying to find his form.
Add in that Jaime Garcia is done for the year and Michael Wacha could be out at least until September and you can see why John Mozeliak could be looking to add a pitcher.
So, if you're going to add a pitcher, why not go big?
Well, according to Goold, there are a couple things the Cardinals will need to sort out first, before they even consider a trade for Price: (1) the chances of Price re-signing with them and (2) their willingness to pay the high cost (both in terms of money and prospects).
In his Baseball Tonight podcast last Friday, Buster Olney indicated that he thought that Price would be open to signing an extension with the Cardinals, as St. Louis is close to his hometown of Nashville.
As to the second point, the Cardinals certainly have the money for Price. Their 2014 opening day payroll of $107 million was less than their 2013 payroll of $115 million. Plus, they will have the salaries of Jason Motte ($7.5 million) and Mark Ellis ($5.25 million) coming off the books, giving them at least $20 million to play with. Add in the new MLB TV deal that kicked in this year, as the Cards should be flush with funds.
The main question that remains is whether Mo will be willing to part with the prospects required to last Price.
For his part, Price is making it hard for any team, let alone the Cardinals, to say no, as he has posted an 0.85 ERA over his last 4 starts and a 1.64 ERA over his last 9 starts.
With 11 days until the deadline, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
That appears to be the case when it comes to the Cardinals and Tampa Bay's David Price. According to Joe Strauss, the Cardinals remain "fixated" on Price, while Derrick Goold indicates that the Cards interest in Price is reminiscent of their pursuit of Matt Holliday in 2009.
This is a bit surprising, as we were told just a week and a half ago, by Goold himself, that the Cardinals were looking for "hitting not (Jake) Peavy". Of course, Price is not Peavy and, as Strauss points out, beyond Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, there are many questions surrounding the Cards starting rotation.
Despite the loss of Yadier Molina, there is still the belief that the hitting will come around. Matt Holliday is starting to heat up. He is hitting .304/.407/.522 in July and Allen Craig is too good of a hitter to be hitting only .244.
There have been signs of life with the offense and I think that the Cardinals just need to string a few good games together to get on track. However, the way this season has gone so far, that's a big if.
On the flip side, despite being 3rd in the NL in starters ERA, the Cardinals pitching has been shaky as of late. Shelby Miller was recently demoted to the bullpen after posting a 7.30 ERA in his last 5 starts, with the Cards saying he looks "tired". Carlos Martinez has been maddeningly inconsistent, as most rookies are, and Joe Kelly just came off the DL as is still trying to find his form.
Add in that Jaime Garcia is done for the year and Michael Wacha could be out at least until September and you can see why John Mozeliak could be looking to add a pitcher.
So, if you're going to add a pitcher, why not go big?
Well, according to Goold, there are a couple things the Cardinals will need to sort out first, before they even consider a trade for Price: (1) the chances of Price re-signing with them and (2) their willingness to pay the high cost (both in terms of money and prospects).
In his Baseball Tonight podcast last Friday, Buster Olney indicated that he thought that Price would be open to signing an extension with the Cardinals, as St. Louis is close to his hometown of Nashville.
As to the second point, the Cardinals certainly have the money for Price. Their 2014 opening day payroll of $107 million was less than their 2013 payroll of $115 million. Plus, they will have the salaries of Jason Motte ($7.5 million) and Mark Ellis ($5.25 million) coming off the books, giving them at least $20 million to play with. Add in the new MLB TV deal that kicked in this year, as the Cards should be flush with funds.
The main question that remains is whether Mo will be willing to part with the prospects required to last Price.
For his part, Price is making it hard for any team, let alone the Cardinals, to say no, as he has posted an 0.85 ERA over his last 4 starts and a 1.64 ERA over his last 9 starts.
With 11 days until the deadline, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Friday, July 18, 2014
Will the Cardinals make a big splash this trade season?
With the All Star Break out of the way (finally) and meaningful games being played again, many will be turning their focus to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
The last couple years have seen little trade activity for the Cardinals. Last year, the Cards acquired John Axford, but not until after the trade deadline. Before that, in 2012, the team acquired Edward Mujica. In fact, you have to go back to the July 2011 trade deadline for the last significant move at the deadline. That was the year that saw the club trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller and a couple prospects for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepcynski, Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson.
Now, with the deadline less than two weeks away, we're left to ponder what John Mozeliak has up his sleeve this year. Will he make the big move to acquire a hitter or a pitcher or will he just tinker with the bullpen (or make some other minor adjustments)?
The Cardinals have been reportedly looking at adding an offensive upgrade at second or third, which would likely push Kolten Wong to the bench. Ben Zobrist is a prime trade candidate for the Cards, but the Mariners are reportedly pursuing him, according to Jon Paul Morosi.
On the other hand, the season-ending injury to Jaime Garcia and the uncertain status of Michael Wacha, not to mention the recent demotion of Shelby Miller to the pen, have many concerned about the Cardinals pitching depth. Jeff Samardzija is already off the market and while David Price is available, the Cards will have many competitors to acquire his services (including the aforementioned Mariners.).
Derrick Goold was a guest on Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight podcast, in which he indicated that he thinks the Cardinals would at least be willing to discuss a deal involving Oscar Taveras for David Price. At a minimum, Goold says that the Cards will have to address their surplus of outfielders at some point.
Another concern is the loss of Yadier Molina, who will likely be out for the rest of the regular season. ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) reports that the Cardinals are planning to scout the Twins' Kurt Suzuki as a potential upgrade over Tony Cruz and George Kottaras.
My guess is that the Cards will be relatively active this go around. They won't make any big moves, but will make a series of middle-tier moves to shore up their lineup and rotation. I think they will go after Suzuki, then add an infielder, such as Zobrist or Martin Prado and maybe an innings eater, such as Jake Peavy. None of these guys will cost the Cards a lot, but each of them would be an upgrade at the respective positions.
At this point, its all speculation as its difficult to tell which direction Mo will go or if he even will make a move. The team certainly has the pieces in place to make a splash, with an abundance of major league ready outfielders and young arms to dangle in front of selling teams--basically, the Cards have the pieces to acquire any player they want. Its just a question of who do they want and how much are they willing to give up.
The last couple years have seen little trade activity for the Cardinals. Last year, the Cards acquired John Axford, but not until after the trade deadline. Before that, in 2012, the team acquired Edward Mujica. In fact, you have to go back to the July 2011 trade deadline for the last significant move at the deadline. That was the year that saw the club trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller and a couple prospects for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepcynski, Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson.
Now, with the deadline less than two weeks away, we're left to ponder what John Mozeliak has up his sleeve this year. Will he make the big move to acquire a hitter or a pitcher or will he just tinker with the bullpen (or make some other minor adjustments)?
The Cardinals have been reportedly looking at adding an offensive upgrade at second or third, which would likely push Kolten Wong to the bench. Ben Zobrist is a prime trade candidate for the Cards, but the Mariners are reportedly pursuing him, according to Jon Paul Morosi.
On the other hand, the season-ending injury to Jaime Garcia and the uncertain status of Michael Wacha, not to mention the recent demotion of Shelby Miller to the pen, have many concerned about the Cardinals pitching depth. Jeff Samardzija is already off the market and while David Price is available, the Cards will have many competitors to acquire his services (including the aforementioned Mariners.).
Derrick Goold was a guest on Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight podcast, in which he indicated that he thinks the Cardinals would at least be willing to discuss a deal involving Oscar Taveras for David Price. At a minimum, Goold says that the Cards will have to address their surplus of outfielders at some point.
Another concern is the loss of Yadier Molina, who will likely be out for the rest of the regular season. ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) reports that the Cardinals are planning to scout the Twins' Kurt Suzuki as a potential upgrade over Tony Cruz and George Kottaras.
My guess is that the Cards will be relatively active this go around. They won't make any big moves, but will make a series of middle-tier moves to shore up their lineup and rotation. I think they will go after Suzuki, then add an infielder, such as Zobrist or Martin Prado and maybe an innings eater, such as Jake Peavy. None of these guys will cost the Cards a lot, but each of them would be an upgrade at the respective positions.
At this point, its all speculation as its difficult to tell which direction Mo will go or if he even will make a move. The team certainly has the pieces in place to make a splash, with an abundance of major league ready outfielders and young arms to dangle in front of selling teams--basically, the Cards have the pieces to acquire any player they want. Its just a question of who do they want and how much are they willing to give up.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Catching up on the Cardinals trade rumors from the holiday weekend
While the Cubs continue to stockpile infield prospects (whatever happened to Josh Vitters?), the Cardinals have more pressing matters at hand, in particular trying to win the NL Central (or at least clinch a Wildcard spot).
With the Cubs trade of Jeff Samardzija to the A's, David Price is the only ace currently on the market. To make things more interesting, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi states that the Rays are willing to trade Price within their own division.
The Cardinals remain in the hunt for Price, according to Morosi, especially given Jaime Garcia's recent season ending surgery and the uncertainty surrounding Michael Wacha's return. However, the Rays recent hot streak has at least delayed a potential trade, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports suggests that the Dodgers could look to acquire Price as a means of forcing a compromise between media giants Time Warner and Direct TV and end the current blackout that is affecting 70% of the Dodgers viewership.
One thing is for certain, with Samardzija off the market, interest in Price will certainly heat up and it will only drive up the asking price for the ace lefty. The Cardinals will still be in the mix, but chances are that John Mozeliak will not pony up the prospects necessary to acquire Price.
With Price looking like less of a possibility, Mozeliak may be turning he attention elsewhere.
According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Cardinals, along with the Blue Jays and Giants are showing interest in Diamondbacks infielders Aaron Hill and Martin Prado. Neither of them are having stellar seasons, with Hill hitting .241/.278/.359 and Prado .268/.314/.357, however, perhaps a change of scenery (and a pennant race) could help them catch fire.
Given a choice between the two, I would rather have Prado as he is younger (30 vs 32 for Hill), has a better career average (.290 vs. .271) and OBP (.340 vs .325). Plus, Prado is more versatile, having played over 200 games at second, third and leftfield for his career (Hill has played second base exclusively since 2007).
Obviously, these are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Cardinals trade rumors, as there are probably many more that are not reported (or leaked), but it looks like the Cards are at least trying to make a significant move to help this team.
With the Cubs trade of Jeff Samardzija to the A's, David Price is the only ace currently on the market. To make things more interesting, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi states that the Rays are willing to trade Price within their own division.
The Cardinals remain in the hunt for Price, according to Morosi, especially given Jaime Garcia's recent season ending surgery and the uncertainty surrounding Michael Wacha's return. However, the Rays recent hot streak has at least delayed a potential trade, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports suggests that the Dodgers could look to acquire Price as a means of forcing a compromise between media giants Time Warner and Direct TV and end the current blackout that is affecting 70% of the Dodgers viewership.
One thing is for certain, with Samardzija off the market, interest in Price will certainly heat up and it will only drive up the asking price for the ace lefty. The Cardinals will still be in the mix, but chances are that John Mozeliak will not pony up the prospects necessary to acquire Price.
With Price looking like less of a possibility, Mozeliak may be turning he attention elsewhere.
According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Cardinals, along with the Blue Jays and Giants are showing interest in Diamondbacks infielders Aaron Hill and Martin Prado. Neither of them are having stellar seasons, with Hill hitting .241/.278/.359 and Prado .268/.314/.357, however, perhaps a change of scenery (and a pennant race) could help them catch fire.
Given a choice between the two, I would rather have Prado as he is younger (30 vs 32 for Hill), has a better career average (.290 vs. .271) and OBP (.340 vs .325). Plus, Prado is more versatile, having played over 200 games at second, third and leftfield for his career (Hill has played second base exclusively since 2007).
Obviously, these are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Cardinals trade rumors, as there are probably many more that are not reported (or leaked), but it looks like the Cards are at least trying to make a significant move to help this team.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Could the latest injuries to the Cardinals starting rotation make them more likely to pursue David Price?
The recent losses of Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia have created a big hole in the Cardinals starting rotation. Carlos Martinez will fill one of those spots, however, he has made just two big league starts and it remains to be seen how he will fare. The other replacement is likely to be Tyler Lyons, who has a career 5.89 ERA as a starter.
Obviously, the Cardinals could use some help.
Which brings us back to David Price.
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, "the Cardinals have been watching the Rays closely recently" and were among the teams watching Price pitch on June 20th. Topkin also suggested that the Cards recent injuries could increase their interest in Price.
Of course, interest in the left handed ace will be high. Topkin suggested that the Dodgers are likely the frontrunner to land Price, with the Giants, Braves, Angels, A's, Indians and the surprising Marlins also possibilities.
However, despite recently losing Gavin Floyd to injury, Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that the Braves are unlikely to pursue Price. The Braves are already over budget and have a solid rotation with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Alex Wood.
Also, while you can never rule out the Rays trading Price within their own division, it would likely cost those teams, such as the Yankees, considerably more to acquire him.
Topkin also suggested that the Rays trade Price now, an idea echoed by Gary Shelton of the Tampa Bay Times. Price is obviously unhappy in Tampa, what with the team in last place and the constant trade rumors. Its best to move him now, especially before the market for the other top tier pitchers, such as Jeff Samardzija and Cliff Lee heats up.
Needless to say, the trade market just got a whole lot more interesting for the Cardinals and things could happen quickly.
Obviously, the Cardinals could use some help.
Which brings us back to David Price.
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, "the Cardinals have been watching the Rays closely recently" and were among the teams watching Price pitch on June 20th. Topkin also suggested that the Cards recent injuries could increase their interest in Price.
Of course, interest in the left handed ace will be high. Topkin suggested that the Dodgers are likely the frontrunner to land Price, with the Giants, Braves, Angels, A's, Indians and the surprising Marlins also possibilities.
However, despite recently losing Gavin Floyd to injury, Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that the Braves are unlikely to pursue Price. The Braves are already over budget and have a solid rotation with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Alex Wood.
Also, while you can never rule out the Rays trading Price within their own division, it would likely cost those teams, such as the Yankees, considerably more to acquire him.
Topkin also suggested that the Rays trade Price now, an idea echoed by Gary Shelton of the Tampa Bay Times. Price is obviously unhappy in Tampa, what with the team in last place and the constant trade rumors. Its best to move him now, especially before the market for the other top tier pitchers, such as Jeff Samardzija and Cliff Lee heats up.
Needless to say, the trade market just got a whole lot more interesting for the Cardinals and things could happen quickly.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Cardinals lose 40% of their starting rotation. What next?
While not as bad as losing a lead in the last couple minutes of your soccer match, the Cardinals starting rotation sustained a big blow today when both Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia were placed on the DL due to shoulder issues.
For Garcia, shoulder issues are nothing new. What is surprising is that he was able to come back and pitch effectively, even if it was just 7 starts. Garcia reaggravated his left shoulder, which was surgically repaired last year.
On the other hand, Wacha suffered what is being called a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder and will miss at least a few weeks, probably more.
Carlos Martinez, who made his second start today while filling in for Wacha, will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future, while the Cardinals have yet to name a replacement for Garcia, who was scheduled to pitch Wednesday.
The most likely option is Tyler Lyons, who last pitched on June 19th and is on the 40-man roster. However, he might not be the best option if these injuries stretch out over a month.
Joe Kelly, who started the season in the rotation before suffering a hamstring injury, is almost ready to start a rehab assignment and could be ready to rejoin the rotation in early July.
In any case, this is just another test of the Cardinals depth and it will be interesting to see if this changes the Cards targets as the trade deadline approached.
For Garcia, shoulder issues are nothing new. What is surprising is that he was able to come back and pitch effectively, even if it was just 7 starts. Garcia reaggravated his left shoulder, which was surgically repaired last year.
On the other hand, Wacha suffered what is being called a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder and will miss at least a few weeks, probably more.
Carlos Martinez, who made his second start today while filling in for Wacha, will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future, while the Cardinals have yet to name a replacement for Garcia, who was scheduled to pitch Wednesday.
The most likely option is Tyler Lyons, who last pitched on June 19th and is on the 40-man roster. However, he might not be the best option if these injuries stretch out over a month.
Joe Kelly, who started the season in the rotation before suffering a hamstring injury, is almost ready to start a rehab assignment and could be ready to rejoin the rotation in early July.
In any case, this is just another test of the Cardinals depth and it will be interesting to see if this changes the Cards targets as the trade deadline approached.
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Should the Cardinals pursue David Price and, if so, what might he cost them?
Last week I opined as to what the Cardinals needs might be heading into trading season. Bullpen help is their main priority, but there is also the possibility that the Cardinals could make a big splash and try to pull off a blockbuster deal.
A little while ago, Ken Rosenthal suggested that the Cards should pursue a big-name starting pitcher, such as David Price and, with the recent elbow issues of Adam Wainwright, that is a distinct possibility. However, Rosenthal recently indicated that the team is hesitant to go shopping for a starter, as they still have internal options, such as Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.
Early indications are that Wainwright's injury is not serious, but it does raise concerns. Waino is definitely the Cardinals ace and while Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia have all pitched well, a long-term injury to Wainwright would definitely hurt the Cards playoff chances.
Plus, could you imagine a big 3 of Wainwright, Wacha and Price in the playoffs? The Cardinals would definitely be tough to beat.
Price would be under team control through the 2015 season, which means he is not the typical "rental" player available this time of year and it would give the Cards time to negotiate a potential extension with him.
Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to acquiring Price, but at what cost?
The best comparison to determine the asking price for Price is to look at the Rays trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in December 2012. At that time, the Rays acquired Wil Meyers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard from the Royals for those two pitchers.
To put that package in perspective, Meyers was the Royals #1 prospect and the 4th best in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Odorizzi was the Royals #5 prospect and ranked 92nd overall by Baseball America. Montgomery had fallen off the charts a bit, but was once a top 50 prospect and Leonard was a low-level, unranked power hitting prospect.
What might the equivalent package be that the Cards would have to pony up for Price?
Well, you have to consider that the Royals were getting two quality arms in their deal, however Price is considered a much better pitcher than either Shields or Davis, so that probably balances out.
Thus, I would think that any discussion would probably start with Oscar Taveras. The Cards would probably have to include a pitcher who is close to major-league ready as well, such as Tim Cooney and then a couple lesser prospects.
The question then is: Is it worth the cost?
Would you be willing to part with your top hitting prospect for arguably the best pitcher on the market?
Considering the logjam of outfielders that the Cards have in their system both in the majors (Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay and Allen Craig), as well as at AAA (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk) and even AA (James Ramsey), parting with a top talent like Taveras for a lefthanded "ace" like Price is a little less painfull.
Overall, I think that, if the Cards could land Price for some package involving Taveras, they should go for it. Pitching wins championships.
What do you think?
A little while ago, Ken Rosenthal suggested that the Cards should pursue a big-name starting pitcher, such as David Price and, with the recent elbow issues of Adam Wainwright, that is a distinct possibility. However, Rosenthal recently indicated that the team is hesitant to go shopping for a starter, as they still have internal options, such as Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.
Early indications are that Wainwright's injury is not serious, but it does raise concerns. Waino is definitely the Cardinals ace and while Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia have all pitched well, a long-term injury to Wainwright would definitely hurt the Cards playoff chances.
Plus, could you imagine a big 3 of Wainwright, Wacha and Price in the playoffs? The Cardinals would definitely be tough to beat.
Price would be under team control through the 2015 season, which means he is not the typical "rental" player available this time of year and it would give the Cards time to negotiate a potential extension with him.
Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to acquiring Price, but at what cost?
The best comparison to determine the asking price for Price is to look at the Rays trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in December 2012. At that time, the Rays acquired Wil Meyers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard from the Royals for those two pitchers.
To put that package in perspective, Meyers was the Royals #1 prospect and the 4th best in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Odorizzi was the Royals #5 prospect and ranked 92nd overall by Baseball America. Montgomery had fallen off the charts a bit, but was once a top 50 prospect and Leonard was a low-level, unranked power hitting prospect.
What might the equivalent package be that the Cards would have to pony up for Price?
Well, you have to consider that the Royals were getting two quality arms in their deal, however Price is considered a much better pitcher than either Shields or Davis, so that probably balances out.
Thus, I would think that any discussion would probably start with Oscar Taveras. The Cards would probably have to include a pitcher who is close to major-league ready as well, such as Tim Cooney and then a couple lesser prospects.
The question then is: Is it worth the cost?
Would you be willing to part with your top hitting prospect for arguably the best pitcher on the market?
Considering the logjam of outfielders that the Cards have in their system both in the majors (Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay and Allen Craig), as well as at AAA (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk) and even AA (James Ramsey), parting with a top talent like Taveras for a lefthanded "ace" like Price is a little less painfull.
Overall, I think that, if the Cards could land Price for some package involving Taveras, they should go for it. Pitching wins championships.
What do you think?
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Joe Kelly given Cardinals 5th starter job over Carlos Martinez
As I suspected, the Cardinals announced today that Joe Kelly has "won" the 5th starter job and the Carlos Martinez will be the 8th inning guy in the bullpen. This despite Martinez' sparkling 1.76 ERA this spring compared to Kelly's 6.28.
Makes you wonder why they went through all this pretense of a spring competition in the first place. What kind of message does this send to Martinez?
Don't get me wrong, I don't think its a bad decision on the Cardinals part, I just don't get the rationale for having a competition for the 5th starter job when they already knew who the 5th starter was going to be.
Martinez took well to the 8th inning role last season, while Kelly had an excellent second half as a starter, which should carry more weight than what they do in 15-20 spring innings.
Making Kelly the 5th starter and Martinez makes sense, for now.
However, I do not want to see the Cardinals pigeonhole Martinez into a bullpen role, like they have done with Trevor Rosenthal.
The best case scenario is for the Cards to use Martinez in the 8th inning role for the first month or two until Jason Motte proves healthy enough to take over. Then send Martinez back to the minors to stretch him out as a starter again.
Once he is stretched out, he can take over for any under-performing pitchers in the second half of the season (read "Lance Lynn") and perhaps pull a Michael Wacha down the stretch and in the playoffs.
So, for now at least, the decision makes sense. We just could have done without the dog and pony show.
Makes you wonder why they went through all this pretense of a spring competition in the first place. What kind of message does this send to Martinez?
Don't get me wrong, I don't think its a bad decision on the Cardinals part, I just don't get the rationale for having a competition for the 5th starter job when they already knew who the 5th starter was going to be.
Martinez took well to the 8th inning role last season, while Kelly had an excellent second half as a starter, which should carry more weight than what they do in 15-20 spring innings.
Making Kelly the 5th starter and Martinez makes sense, for now.
However, I do not want to see the Cardinals pigeonhole Martinez into a bullpen role, like they have done with Trevor Rosenthal.
The best case scenario is for the Cards to use Martinez in the 8th inning role for the first month or two until Jason Motte proves healthy enough to take over. Then send Martinez back to the minors to stretch him out as a starter again.
Once he is stretched out, he can take over for any under-performing pitchers in the second half of the season (read "Lance Lynn") and perhaps pull a Michael Wacha down the stretch and in the playoffs.
So, for now at least, the decision makes sense. We just could have done without the dog and pony show.
Tuesday, February 25, 2014
How many innings will Michael Wacha pitch for the Cardinals in 2014?
According to an ESPN report, the Cardinals aren't setting an innings limit on Michael Wacha in 2014 and the Cards pitching coach, Derek Lilliquist, stated that Wacha "could be a 200-inning guy this year".
But is that realistic?
Between the minors, majors and postseason, Wacha logged 180.1 innings in 2013, so 200 innings is not that big of a jump.
However, that is just the regular season. Wacha pitched 30.1 innings during the 2013 playoffs. If he were to pitch that much again in 2014, he would end up at around 230 innings, a 50 innings jump from 2013.
Wacha's innings increase from 2012 to 2013 has already placed him on Tom Verducci's annual "Year-After Effect" list. Wacha pitched just 134.1 innings in 2012 (between college and the minors). Thus his 180.1 innings in 2013 represent a 46 inning increase (Verducci identifies anything over 30 innings, for pitchers under 25, as a risk).
Another season with a increase of over 30 innings would really put Verducci in a tizzy.
Now, there have been studies that have criticized or dispute the "Verducci effect" and there are some who point to his "effect" being correct 75% of the time. In any case, I just don't see the Cardinals pushing Wacha to 230 innings this year.
I think the Cardinals will take a more cautious approach, similar to what they did with Shelby Miller. Miller progressed from 139.2 innings in 2011 to 153.2 in 2012 to 173.1 in 2013, his first full season in the minors. Miller was then basically shut down in the playoffs, pitching only 1 inning and become the forgotten man.
The Cardinals do not want to face a similar situation with Wacha. Thus, Wacha could have a "soft" limit of 180-190 innings in the regular season, which would allow him to pitch 20-30 innings in the playoffs without much concern.
190 innings is not a bad limit for Wacha's first full year. He will probably make around 32 starts, which, if he averages around 6 innings per start, would put him at 192 (Miller averaged a little over 5.5 innings per start).
To reach 200 innings for the year, Wacha would have to average about 6.5 innings per start, something he's certainly capable of, but at the same time not something that is a given, especially if the Cardinals try to limit his innings per start so as to reduce his overall innings.
In any case, it will be interesting to see what the Cardinals say in September if Wacha is approaching 200 innings. Despite what they are saying now, they may have other plans that they are not telling us about.
But is that realistic?
Between the minors, majors and postseason, Wacha logged 180.1 innings in 2013, so 200 innings is not that big of a jump.
However, that is just the regular season. Wacha pitched 30.1 innings during the 2013 playoffs. If he were to pitch that much again in 2014, he would end up at around 230 innings, a 50 innings jump from 2013.
Wacha's innings increase from 2012 to 2013 has already placed him on Tom Verducci's annual "Year-After Effect" list. Wacha pitched just 134.1 innings in 2012 (between college and the minors). Thus his 180.1 innings in 2013 represent a 46 inning increase (Verducci identifies anything over 30 innings, for pitchers under 25, as a risk).
Another season with a increase of over 30 innings would really put Verducci in a tizzy.
Now, there have been studies that have criticized or dispute the "Verducci effect" and there are some who point to his "effect" being correct 75% of the time. In any case, I just don't see the Cardinals pushing Wacha to 230 innings this year.
I think the Cardinals will take a more cautious approach, similar to what they did with Shelby Miller. Miller progressed from 139.2 innings in 2011 to 153.2 in 2012 to 173.1 in 2013, his first full season in the minors. Miller was then basically shut down in the playoffs, pitching only 1 inning and become the forgotten man.
The Cardinals do not want to face a similar situation with Wacha. Thus, Wacha could have a "soft" limit of 180-190 innings in the regular season, which would allow him to pitch 20-30 innings in the playoffs without much concern.
190 innings is not a bad limit for Wacha's first full year. He will probably make around 32 starts, which, if he averages around 6 innings per start, would put him at 192 (Miller averaged a little over 5.5 innings per start).
To reach 200 innings for the year, Wacha would have to average about 6.5 innings per start, something he's certainly capable of, but at the same time not something that is a given, especially if the Cardinals try to limit his innings per start so as to reduce his overall innings.
In any case, it will be interesting to see what the Cardinals say in September if Wacha is approaching 200 innings. Despite what they are saying now, they may have other plans that they are not telling us about.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Carlos Martinez is battling for Cardinals rotation? Who might he beat out?
The most interesting news out of the Cardinals Spring Training camp so far is that Carlos Martinez will be used as a starter. It seemed almost a foregone conclusion that Martinez would be relegated to the pen. The Cardinals return starters Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn this year and Jaime Garcia appears to be fully recovered from 2013 shoulder surgery. If any of those guys should falter, swingman Joe Kelly would step into the fray.
However, with this latest news, it can mean one of two things: (1) The Cardinals are concerned about Garcia's shoulder holding up over a full season or (2) the Cards are trying to light a fire under Lynn to get him to pitch consistently up to his potential.
For Garcia, there has been no setbacks to date and no indications that he is not fully recovered. However, after throwing just 55.1 and 121.2 innings the last two years, there has to be some concern about whether he can last a full season.
The Cards may play it safe and put an innings limit on the young lefty, thereby giving someone like Martinez the opportunity to step in once Garcia reaches that limit. If that's the case, you could very well see Garcia and Martinez split the season as starters, with Garcia starting the first half of the season and Martinez taking over in the second half.
As for Lynn, he has started each of the last two seasons on fire, only to see him implode in the second half.
In 2012, Lynn posted a 9-4 record and 3.28 ERA in the first half and a 9-3 record, but 4.15 ERA in the second half. The Cardinals chalked it up to fatigue and asked Lynn to lose weight in the offseason, which he did.
However, the weight loss didn't work, as the splits got even worse in 2013. Lynn was 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half and just 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA in the second half. There were concerns about Lynn's mental makeup and concentration, which leads one to believe that Lynn will have a very short leash in 2014.
But is that leash so short that Martinez could overtake him this spring, pushing Lynn to the bullpen?
Its possible or perhaps this is just the kind of motivation that Lynn needs to succeed.
In any case, it should be an interesting storyline to follow this Spring.
However, with this latest news, it can mean one of two things: (1) The Cardinals are concerned about Garcia's shoulder holding up over a full season or (2) the Cards are trying to light a fire under Lynn to get him to pitch consistently up to his potential.
For Garcia, there has been no setbacks to date and no indications that he is not fully recovered. However, after throwing just 55.1 and 121.2 innings the last two years, there has to be some concern about whether he can last a full season.
The Cards may play it safe and put an innings limit on the young lefty, thereby giving someone like Martinez the opportunity to step in once Garcia reaches that limit. If that's the case, you could very well see Garcia and Martinez split the season as starters, with Garcia starting the first half of the season and Martinez taking over in the second half.
As for Lynn, he has started each of the last two seasons on fire, only to see him implode in the second half.
In 2012, Lynn posted a 9-4 record and 3.28 ERA in the first half and a 9-3 record, but 4.15 ERA in the second half. The Cardinals chalked it up to fatigue and asked Lynn to lose weight in the offseason, which he did.
However, the weight loss didn't work, as the splits got even worse in 2013. Lynn was 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half and just 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA in the second half. There were concerns about Lynn's mental makeup and concentration, which leads one to believe that Lynn will have a very short leash in 2014.
But is that leash so short that Martinez could overtake him this spring, pushing Lynn to the bullpen?
Its possible or perhaps this is just the kind of motivation that Lynn needs to succeed.
In any case, it should be an interesting storyline to follow this Spring.
Thursday, January 16, 2014
Projecting the Cardinals 2014 opening day roster
Let's face it, its been a pretty boring Hot Stove League for the Cardinals. Most of their offseason shopping was done before Christmas and, as a result of that, the Holidays and busy season, I've been struggling to find things to write about.
Thus, to get me back on track, I decided to take a peek at the Cardinals current roster and see if I could predict who will make it on the opening day 25-man roster.
First, I already predicted the starting lineup and the starting rotation, so they automatically make the roster:
1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. Adam Wainwright
10. Shelby Miller
11. Jaime Garcia
12. Michael Wacha
13. Lance Lynn
From there, we know that Mark Ellis will at least earn a spot on the bench, along with John Jay (assuming he's not traded). The Cardinals will also need a backup catcher, most likely Tony Cruz, which puts us up to 16.
Then, there are certain guys who you figure have already earned a spot in the bullpen, including closer Trevor Rosenthal and setup men Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist, Randy Choate and Joe Kelly.
Assuming the Cardinals go with a 13 hitter/12 pitcher split, that leaves the Cards with 2 bench spots and 2 bullpen spots.
Bench Battles
The battles for the last two bench spots will likely come down to Daniel Descalso vs Pete Kozma and Shane Robinson vs Oscar Taveras.
Looking at the first battle, it pretty much comes down Descalso's versatility versus Kozma defense at short. Granted, Descalso can play short, but if the Cardinals prefer a better defensive player as a backup to Peralta, Kozma is the man.
Given that Ellis is pretty much limited to second, the Cardinals would probably prefer Descalso's versatility to the defense of Kozma, so he gets the nod.
As for the outfield battle, it is more a question as to whether the Cardinals feel that Taveras is ready or if he would be better served with more seasoning in the minors. Given the time he missed last year due to injury, I see Taveras returning to AAA at least at the start of the season, thus giving the nod to Robinson.
Bullpen Battles
One thing to look for in the spring is the health of Jason Motte. If he's healthy, he will likely make the opening day roster. However, I think the Cardinals will play it safe with Motte and let him start the season on a rehab assignment in the minors.
With Motte a question mark and former bullpen members Edward Mujica, Fernando Salas and John Axford no longer with the team, the battle for the last two spots will likely come down to Carlos Martinez, Keith Butler and Sam Freeman.
Look for Martinez to earn a spot, based on his post season work, with the final spot coming down to whoever has the better spring between Butler and Freeman. I'll give the nod to Freeman, based solely on how he pitched for the Cardinals in 2013.
Thus, here is my projected opening day 25-man roster:
Thus, to get me back on track, I decided to take a peek at the Cardinals current roster and see if I could predict who will make it on the opening day 25-man roster.
First, I already predicted the starting lineup and the starting rotation, so they automatically make the roster:
1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. Adam Wainwright
10. Shelby Miller
11. Jaime Garcia
12. Michael Wacha
13. Lance Lynn
From there, we know that Mark Ellis will at least earn a spot on the bench, along with John Jay (assuming he's not traded). The Cardinals will also need a backup catcher, most likely Tony Cruz, which puts us up to 16.
Then, there are certain guys who you figure have already earned a spot in the bullpen, including closer Trevor Rosenthal and setup men Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist, Randy Choate and Joe Kelly.
Assuming the Cardinals go with a 13 hitter/12 pitcher split, that leaves the Cards with 2 bench spots and 2 bullpen spots.
Bench Battles
The battles for the last two bench spots will likely come down to Daniel Descalso vs Pete Kozma and Shane Robinson vs Oscar Taveras.
Looking at the first battle, it pretty much comes down Descalso's versatility versus Kozma defense at short. Granted, Descalso can play short, but if the Cardinals prefer a better defensive player as a backup to Peralta, Kozma is the man.
Given that Ellis is pretty much limited to second, the Cardinals would probably prefer Descalso's versatility to the defense of Kozma, so he gets the nod.
As for the outfield battle, it is more a question as to whether the Cardinals feel that Taveras is ready or if he would be better served with more seasoning in the minors. Given the time he missed last year due to injury, I see Taveras returning to AAA at least at the start of the season, thus giving the nod to Robinson.
Bullpen Battles
One thing to look for in the spring is the health of Jason Motte. If he's healthy, he will likely make the opening day roster. However, I think the Cardinals will play it safe with Motte and let him start the season on a rehab assignment in the minors.
With Motte a question mark and former bullpen members Edward Mujica, Fernando Salas and John Axford no longer with the team, the battle for the last two spots will likely come down to Carlos Martinez, Keith Butler and Sam Freeman.
Look for Martinez to earn a spot, based on his post season work, with the final spot coming down to whoever has the better spring between Butler and Freeman. I'll give the nod to Freeman, based solely on how he pitched for the Cardinals in 2013.
Thus, here is my projected opening day 25-man roster:
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Jhonny Peralta, SS
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Jaime Garcia
- Michael Wacha
- Lance Lynn
- Mark Ellis
- Jon Jay
- Tony Cruz
- Daniel Descalso
- Shane Robinson
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Seth Maness
- Kevin Siegrist
- Randy Choate
- Joe Kelly
- Carlos Martinez
- Sam Freeman
Monday, December 30, 2013
The Cardinals top 5 stories of 2013
Every December you will see various publications posting their Top 10 lists relating to the concluding year, whether it be top news stories, top sports moments, best defensive plays, etc...
This year CFCL, as part of the United Cardinals Bloggers December project, is joining the fray with the top 5 Cardinals stories for the 2013 season.
My criteria for the top stories are those that I feel impacted the Cardinals the most in their run to the World Series.
So, without further ado, here are my picks for the top 5 Cardinals stories of the year, in countdown order:
5. Edward Mujica steps up
After losing Jason Motte to Tommy John surgery and fill-in closer Mitchell Boggs to ineptitude, the Cardinals were desperate for someone to step up and fill the closer role.
Enter Edward Mujica. After taking over the closer role in mid-April, Mujica saved 35 out of 37 games before tiring down the stretch and losing the closer role to Trevor Rosenthal.
However, make no mistake about it, the Cardinals would not have reached the playoffs without Mujica's quiet efficiency as closer from April to August.
4. Cardinals redefine the term "clutch"
When it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), no one did it better than the Cardinals in 2013. As a team, they hit .330 with RISP, nearly 50 points higher than the second place team, the Tigers, who hit .282 with RISP.
Leading the way for the Cardinals was Allen Craig who hit an insane .454 with RISP. In 130 at bats with RISP, Craig had 84 rbi's, despite just 4 homers.
In addition to Craig, Matt Holliday was 4th with RISP with a .390 average, Matt Carpenter was 5th with .388 average and Carlos Beltran 8th with a .374 average.
3. Cardinals rookie pitchers come up big
Due to an seemingly endless string of injuries and ineffectiveness, the Cardinals relied on their rookie pitchers early and often during the 2013 season.
It started with Shelby Miller, who won the 5th starter spot in spring training and finished the season with a 15-9 record, a 3.06 ERA and a third place finish in the ROY voting.
Second on the list was Trevor Rosenthal who absolutely dominated in the setup role, posting a 2.63 ERA and 108 K's in 75.1 innings. He took over the closer role late in the season and locked up the 2014 closer role with 11.2 scoreless innings in the 2013 postseason.
Other key rookie arms were Seth Maness (2.32 ERA and an incredible 4.40 GO/FO ratio), Kevin Siegrist (0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (5.08 ERA in the regular season, but a 3.55 ERA as the primary setup man in the playoffs).
2. Adam Wainwright returns to form
After shaking off the rust from Tommy John surgery during an up-and-down 2012 season, Adam Wainwright showed he was back as the Cardinals ace in 2013.
Wainwright was among the top 5 in ERA for most of the season, holding a 2.58 ERA through August 23, before back-to-back poor outings against the Reds ballooned his ERA up to 3.14. He settled down after that to lower his ERA to 2.94, good for 7th in the league while tying for the league lead with 19 wins.
Add to that his leadership and dancing ability, and its easy to see why Waino is a fan favorite.
1. Michael Wacha dominates the postseason
In all my years of watching and following the Cardinals, I am hard-pressed to think of any pitcher, let alone a rookie, who had a better stretch of starts than Michael Wacha did in his first 4 postseason starts.
It started with game 4 of the NLDS against the Pirates. Facing elimination, Wacha no-hit the Buccos through 7.1 innings before allowing a homer against Cardinal killer Pedro Alvarez.
He followed that up by throwing 13.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS, including 7 innings of 2 hit ball in the decisive 6th game, earning the NLCS MVP award.
He then went on to win game 2 of the World Series, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits.
All told, Wacha went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his first 4 postseason games.
That he ended up losing the decisive game 6 of the World Series does not diminish his heroics as the Cardinals certainly would not have even made the World Series without him.
I'm sure there are other key moments that I probably have forgotten about, but those are the ones that stood out to me. What's yours?
This year CFCL, as part of the United Cardinals Bloggers December project, is joining the fray with the top 5 Cardinals stories for the 2013 season.
My criteria for the top stories are those that I feel impacted the Cardinals the most in their run to the World Series.
So, without further ado, here are my picks for the top 5 Cardinals stories of the year, in countdown order:
5. Edward Mujica steps up
After losing Jason Motte to Tommy John surgery and fill-in closer Mitchell Boggs to ineptitude, the Cardinals were desperate for someone to step up and fill the closer role.
Enter Edward Mujica. After taking over the closer role in mid-April, Mujica saved 35 out of 37 games before tiring down the stretch and losing the closer role to Trevor Rosenthal.
However, make no mistake about it, the Cardinals would not have reached the playoffs without Mujica's quiet efficiency as closer from April to August.
4. Cardinals redefine the term "clutch"
When it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), no one did it better than the Cardinals in 2013. As a team, they hit .330 with RISP, nearly 50 points higher than the second place team, the Tigers, who hit .282 with RISP.
Leading the way for the Cardinals was Allen Craig who hit an insane .454 with RISP. In 130 at bats with RISP, Craig had 84 rbi's, despite just 4 homers.
In addition to Craig, Matt Holliday was 4th with RISP with a .390 average, Matt Carpenter was 5th with .388 average and Carlos Beltran 8th with a .374 average.
3. Cardinals rookie pitchers come up big
Due to an seemingly endless string of injuries and ineffectiveness, the Cardinals relied on their rookie pitchers early and often during the 2013 season.
It started with Shelby Miller, who won the 5th starter spot in spring training and finished the season with a 15-9 record, a 3.06 ERA and a third place finish in the ROY voting.
Second on the list was Trevor Rosenthal who absolutely dominated in the setup role, posting a 2.63 ERA and 108 K's in 75.1 innings. He took over the closer role late in the season and locked up the 2014 closer role with 11.2 scoreless innings in the 2013 postseason.
Other key rookie arms were Seth Maness (2.32 ERA and an incredible 4.40 GO/FO ratio), Kevin Siegrist (0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (5.08 ERA in the regular season, but a 3.55 ERA as the primary setup man in the playoffs).
2. Adam Wainwright returns to form
After shaking off the rust from Tommy John surgery during an up-and-down 2012 season, Adam Wainwright showed he was back as the Cardinals ace in 2013.
Wainwright was among the top 5 in ERA for most of the season, holding a 2.58 ERA through August 23, before back-to-back poor outings against the Reds ballooned his ERA up to 3.14. He settled down after that to lower his ERA to 2.94, good for 7th in the league while tying for the league lead with 19 wins.
Add to that his leadership and dancing ability, and its easy to see why Waino is a fan favorite.
1. Michael Wacha dominates the postseason
In all my years of watching and following the Cardinals, I am hard-pressed to think of any pitcher, let alone a rookie, who had a better stretch of starts than Michael Wacha did in his first 4 postseason starts.
It started with game 4 of the NLDS against the Pirates. Facing elimination, Wacha no-hit the Buccos through 7.1 innings before allowing a homer against Cardinal killer Pedro Alvarez.
He followed that up by throwing 13.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS, including 7 innings of 2 hit ball in the decisive 6th game, earning the NLCS MVP award.
He then went on to win game 2 of the World Series, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits.
All told, Wacha went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his first 4 postseason games.
That he ended up losing the decisive game 6 of the World Series does not diminish his heroics as the Cardinals certainly would not have even made the World Series without him.
I'm sure there are other key moments that I probably have forgotten about, but those are the ones that stood out to me. What's yours?
Sunday, December 29, 2013
What is the best way to develop the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez in the 2014 season?
Derrick Goold posted an interesting article a couple days ago stating that Carlos Martinez could be this year's Trevor Rosenthal.
If you remember, Rosenthal was slated to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, along with Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. However, he was bumped to the bullpen without really getting a shot at the rotation, while Kelly and Miller battled it out for the final spot.
Fast forward to spring 2014 and we could find Martinez in a similar situation. After a nice showing in relief down the stretch and in the postseason, the Cardinals, who have several options for the rotation, could slot Martinez in the bullpen, basically replacing Rosenthal as setup man.
Martinez could certainly excel in that role. However, Martinez could be a whole lot more valuable as a starter, with the upside of an ace.
To me, it would make more sense in the long run if the Cardinals followed the Michael Wacha 2013 development plan. Keep Martinez in AAA to work on his secondary pitches and as insurance should injuries occur in the rotation.
After a very strong spring, the Cardinals were highly tempted to include Wacha on their opening day roster, but with the exception of a 3-start stint in late-May and early June, Wacha spent most of the year in the minors, mainly trying to refine his breaking ball. He was called up to make a spot start on August 10th, then spent the next 3 weeks in the bullpen before returning to the rotation for good on August 28th.
All told, Wacha worked 180.1 innings in 2013, including 30.2 in the playoffs, which was a 46 innings increase over his 2012 workload (Wacha pitched 134.1 innings in 2012, including college).
The Cards reportedly wanted to limit Wacha to 150 innings in 2013, which they did--in the regular season. However, his dominance in the post season proved too valuable for the team to pass on and they leaned on him heavily in the playoffs and World Series.
In contract, the Cardinals placed a 180 innings limit on fellow rookie Shelby Miller and, after pitching 173.1 innings in the regular season, the team only used him for one inning in the post season.
Due to a late start to his season and being used primarily in a relief role in the majors, Martinez logged just 120.2 innings this year. Thus, its likely the Cardinals would limit him to a similar 150 innings as they placed on Wacha and, if they follow the same development path as they did with Wacha, they can accomplish just that.
If the Cardinals put Martinez in the bullpen for all of 2014, he would be limited to around 70-80 innings for the year. Then, if the Cardinals needed him to fill a rotation spot in 2015, he would be hard pressed to throw the requisite 160-180 innings required of a full-time starter.
The ideal scenario would be to start Martinez in the bullpen as the setup man for Rosenthal to begin the 2014 season. Then, when Jason Motte proves healthy, he can take over the setup role and Martinez can return to the minors to further his development as a starter.
This would help limit Martinez' innings while also allowing him to complete his development and perhaps, down the stretch, we can see Martinez become the 2014 version of Wacha.
If you remember, Rosenthal was slated to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, along with Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. However, he was bumped to the bullpen without really getting a shot at the rotation, while Kelly and Miller battled it out for the final spot.
Fast forward to spring 2014 and we could find Martinez in a similar situation. After a nice showing in relief down the stretch and in the postseason, the Cardinals, who have several options for the rotation, could slot Martinez in the bullpen, basically replacing Rosenthal as setup man.
Martinez could certainly excel in that role. However, Martinez could be a whole lot more valuable as a starter, with the upside of an ace.
To me, it would make more sense in the long run if the Cardinals followed the Michael Wacha 2013 development plan. Keep Martinez in AAA to work on his secondary pitches and as insurance should injuries occur in the rotation.
After a very strong spring, the Cardinals were highly tempted to include Wacha on their opening day roster, but with the exception of a 3-start stint in late-May and early June, Wacha spent most of the year in the minors, mainly trying to refine his breaking ball. He was called up to make a spot start on August 10th, then spent the next 3 weeks in the bullpen before returning to the rotation for good on August 28th.
All told, Wacha worked 180.1 innings in 2013, including 30.2 in the playoffs, which was a 46 innings increase over his 2012 workload (Wacha pitched 134.1 innings in 2012, including college).
The Cards reportedly wanted to limit Wacha to 150 innings in 2013, which they did--in the regular season. However, his dominance in the post season proved too valuable for the team to pass on and they leaned on him heavily in the playoffs and World Series.
In contract, the Cardinals placed a 180 innings limit on fellow rookie Shelby Miller and, after pitching 173.1 innings in the regular season, the team only used him for one inning in the post season.
Due to a late start to his season and being used primarily in a relief role in the majors, Martinez logged just 120.2 innings this year. Thus, its likely the Cardinals would limit him to a similar 150 innings as they placed on Wacha and, if they follow the same development path as they did with Wacha, they can accomplish just that.
If the Cardinals put Martinez in the bullpen for all of 2014, he would be limited to around 70-80 innings for the year. Then, if the Cardinals needed him to fill a rotation spot in 2015, he would be hard pressed to throw the requisite 160-180 innings required of a full-time starter.
The ideal scenario would be to start Martinez in the bullpen as the setup man for Rosenthal to begin the 2014 season. Then, when Jason Motte proves healthy, he can take over the setup role and Martinez can return to the minors to further his development as a starter.
This would help limit Martinez' innings while also allowing him to complete his development and perhaps, down the stretch, we can see Martinez become the 2014 version of Wacha.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Projecting the Cardinals starting rotation for 2014 and beyond
Each year around this time, I try to take a look at the Cardinals roster and project out the starting rotations and lineup for the next year and a few years into the future. Its mainly an exercise in speculation and highly subjective, but its fun to try to figure out what the team might look like in the future.
Today I'm starting with the rotation. Here is what I project for 2014 and beyond.
2014
With Adam Wainwright locked up through 2018, Jaime Garcia signed through 2015 (with club options for 2016 and 2017) and all the other potential starters still pre-arbitration, the Cardinals could have a logjam of pitchers for the next several years.
There are no shortages of starters in the Cardinals organization. With the likes of Wainwright, Garcia, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, John Gast and a host of prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless pipeline of pitchers.
For 2014, John Mozeliak has already gone on record as saying that Garcia will be in the rotation, if healthy, and he will likely join Wainwright, Wacha and Miller as the top 4 starters. This means that Lynn, Kelly and Martinez will likely battle next spring for the 5th starter spot.
Although I see Lynn eventually winning out, with Kelly returning to his swingman role and Martinez working as a setup man, this is probably Lynn's last chance to prove himself worthy of a starting spot. Lynn will be arbitration eligible after the 2014 season and thus next year will be a make or break year for him.
He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but has been far too inconsistent and seems to let his emotions get the better of him at times.
With that said, here is my predicted 2014 rotation:
Again the usual suspects should be vying for a starting spot in 2015, with a couple exceptions.
I think that Lynn will be traded at some point prior to the season, opening up a spot for someone else. My hope is that Carlos Martinez will be the one to step up and take that spot. He has the stuff to be a front line starter and the Cardinals may use the Wainwright method of developing him by using him in relief first (in 2014) before moving him to the rotation in 2015.
The other starter I think could be gone is Garcia. His shoulder issues are a big concern for me and I think that, if the Cards find a taker, they could trade him or his shoulder will knock him out of the rotation. In either case, the Cardinals have a few options to replace him. If addition, the have a good stock pile of young lefties who could replace him. Gast, Lyons or one of their prospects, Marco Gonzalez or Tim Cooney, could fill the void.
If the above plays out, here is how I see the 2015 rotation:
Even if Garcia is still a part of the Cardinals rotation in 2015, I think he's likely gone after that year, as the Cardinals will probably not pick up his option.
Thus, for 2016, the top 4 from the 2015 rotation should still be in place, leaving the 5th starter spot as a battle between lefties Cooney, Gonzalez, Lyons and Gast.
This time I predict that Gonzalez will win out, due largely to his higher upside than Cooney.
Thus, here is the 2016 rotation:
Once you get past 2016, things are really going to get dicey. 2013 first rounder Rob Kaminsky will likely be major league ready by 2017 or 2018 and young flame thrower Alex Reyes could also be ready by that time, leaving the Cardinals with even more arms to choose from.
Obviously, not every one of these prospects will pan out and some pitchers could be traded at some point to replace Jhonny Peralta at short when the Cardinals are forced to move him to third or the outfield. So, there are a lot of variables at play here.
With that said, I think the front 4 will remain a staple of the Cardinals rotation for as long as the Cards control their rights (Wainwright and Miller are signed or controlled through 2018 and Wacha and Martinez through 2019) and the team can just ride the hot hand in the 5th starter spot.
In any case, no matter how you look at it, the Cardinals pitching is stacked and should be for years to come.
Today I'm starting with the rotation. Here is what I project for 2014 and beyond.
2014
With Adam Wainwright locked up through 2018, Jaime Garcia signed through 2015 (with club options for 2016 and 2017) and all the other potential starters still pre-arbitration, the Cardinals could have a logjam of pitchers for the next several years.
There are no shortages of starters in the Cardinals organization. With the likes of Wainwright, Garcia, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, John Gast and a host of prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless pipeline of pitchers.
For 2014, John Mozeliak has already gone on record as saying that Garcia will be in the rotation, if healthy, and he will likely join Wainwright, Wacha and Miller as the top 4 starters. This means that Lynn, Kelly and Martinez will likely battle next spring for the 5th starter spot.
Although I see Lynn eventually winning out, with Kelly returning to his swingman role and Martinez working as a setup man, this is probably Lynn's last chance to prove himself worthy of a starting spot. Lynn will be arbitration eligible after the 2014 season and thus next year will be a make or break year for him.
He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but has been far too inconsistent and seems to let his emotions get the better of him at times.
With that said, here is my predicted 2014 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Jaime Garcia
- Michael Wacha
- Lance Lynn
Again the usual suspects should be vying for a starting spot in 2015, with a couple exceptions.
I think that Lynn will be traded at some point prior to the season, opening up a spot for someone else. My hope is that Carlos Martinez will be the one to step up and take that spot. He has the stuff to be a front line starter and the Cardinals may use the Wainwright method of developing him by using him in relief first (in 2014) before moving him to the rotation in 2015.
The other starter I think could be gone is Garcia. His shoulder issues are a big concern for me and I think that, if the Cards find a taker, they could trade him or his shoulder will knock him out of the rotation. In either case, the Cardinals have a few options to replace him. If addition, the have a good stock pile of young lefties who could replace him. Gast, Lyons or one of their prospects, Marco Gonzalez or Tim Cooney, could fill the void.
If the above plays out, here is how I see the 2015 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- Carlos Martinez
- Tim Cooney
Even if Garcia is still a part of the Cardinals rotation in 2015, I think he's likely gone after that year, as the Cardinals will probably not pick up his option.
Thus, for 2016, the top 4 from the 2015 rotation should still be in place, leaving the 5th starter spot as a battle between lefties Cooney, Gonzalez, Lyons and Gast.
This time I predict that Gonzalez will win out, due largely to his higher upside than Cooney.
Thus, here is the 2016 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- Carlos Martinez
- Marco Gonzalez
Once you get past 2016, things are really going to get dicey. 2013 first rounder Rob Kaminsky will likely be major league ready by 2017 or 2018 and young flame thrower Alex Reyes could also be ready by that time, leaving the Cardinals with even more arms to choose from.
Obviously, not every one of these prospects will pan out and some pitchers could be traded at some point to replace Jhonny Peralta at short when the Cardinals are forced to move him to third or the outfield. So, there are a lot of variables at play here.
With that said, I think the front 4 will remain a staple of the Cardinals rotation for as long as the Cards control their rights (Wainwright and Miller are signed or controlled through 2018 and Wacha and Martinez through 2019) and the team can just ride the hot hand in the 5th starter spot.
In any case, no matter how you look at it, the Cardinals pitching is stacked and should be for years to come.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Questions abound as Hot Stove League heats up for Cardinals
With the lackluster finish to the 2013 World Series, at least as far as Cardinals fans are concerned, everyone's attention now turns to the Hot Stove League.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
UCB Roundtable Day 3: The Cardinals 2014 starting rotation
For the United Cardinals Bloggers November project, we are conducting a roundtable discussion taking a look at the 2013 season and what the 2014 season may bring. To follow the Roundtable, be sure check out the United Cardinals Bloggers' website.
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
As Mark said, this leaves Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn out. Do I think
they are able to bring the return that the Cardinals want at shortstop?
No. Thus, given the risk of injuries, especially with Garcia (as most of
you will soon find out, I am not a big fan
of his), I think you hang on to Kelly and Lynn for at least the first
part of the season. Gast, who I do not think will be healthy yet, will
be in Memphis, and Lyons will likely be in the 'pen or shipped out.
Let’s start off with the easy
ones: John Gast had shoulder surgery near the end of July. The initial
reports were unclear as to the timetable for him to get back, but espn.com
reported that it would be 8 to 12 months. If that is the case, then the
earliest he would be able to throw again is right around opening day,
so I expect him to be in Memphis getting stronger and being able to step
in during the middle/late season if injury prompts a need for him.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
So many arms! So few starting slots! Obviously Adam Wainwright,
Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are in the rotation, and Jaime Garcia
too. Trevor Rosenthal, as John Mozeliak said the other day, is going to
be in the bullpen and Seth Maness was too valuable this season with his
double-play-inducing magic out of the bullpen to give that up.
Despite all that he did this season, I just don't
see Joe Kelly being guaranteed a spot and can see another spring
training competition happening -- probably with the remaining pitchers
you listed here, in John Gast, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. I really
liked Martinez in that eighth inning role out of the bullpen, though,
and he succeeded there but I can see him more as a starter. Gast seems
headed to Memphis for me. Lyons is intriguing -- perhaps in the bullpen
to begin with, but available as a starter as needed too or if someone
else falters (which of course won't happen, right?)
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
Strongest
rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Carlos
Martinez, Jaime Garcia. Like Wacha, Martinez is a special talent and
needs to start.
Trade material: Lance Lynn or Joe Kelly for a starting shortstop.
Bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, closer; Lynn or Kelly, 8th inning; Seth Maness, 7th inning; Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate as left-handed specialists.
Ready in Memphis: Tyler Lyons and John Gast are on-call to replace an injured or faltering starter.
Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants
I couldn’t agree more. So many arms, not enough spots!
Christine Coleman (follow-up)
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
Joe Schwarz - stlcupofjoe’s Sports Page
In my opinion, you give every single pitcher that wants to start a
chance to do so in Spring Training, and this includes Trevor Rosenthal
and Kevin Siegrist. Will both likely end
up in the bullpen? Yep, but down the road when it comes time to re-sign
them, the Cardinals will have the leverage to say that they at least
gave them a shot to be a starting pitcher. Otherwise, their agents could
use that against the Cardinals saying they
"misused" their client or "didn't allow them to reach their full
potential."
However, this is my starting rotation at this time: Adam
Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos
Martinez. I honestly believe Martinez has the best "stuff" of that group
and has the potential to become
great. Will he succeed in the role as a starting pitcher? That is
yet to be seen, but we will never know until he is given that shot. The
bullpen will always be a solid fallback option for Baby Pedro.
Ben Chambers - The View From Here
This is a great problem to have. The Cardinals have too many
talented starting pitchers and they have to figure out who it’s going to
be in the rotation!
Mo
and Matheny have already said that Rosenthal is coming back as the
closer. This is probably the best move for the team. Motte will be back
next year, but there are too many questions that need to be answered
first: Will he be able to pitch on back-to-back days? Will his stamina
hold all season? Will he have a semi-struggling year like Wainwright did
coming back from Tommy John? Will he still be able to hit 100 on the
mound? There are just too many unknowns at this point. I hope that the
Cardinals give him a shot in 2015 (although I am not sure how much of a
shot he’ll have then, either), but for 2014 he’s needed in the 9th
inning.
So, that leaves: Wainwright, Miller,
Garcia, Lynn, Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, Lyons, and Maness. I think Maness
continues in the bullpen. It’s always nice to have a guy out there who
you can trust to come in the game with runners on in late innings. Even
if he doesn’t get all the double plays next year, every bullpen needs at
least one guy like that. Lynn has been up-and-down both of the last two
years, and I really hope that they put him in the bullpen. He has the
ability to be great, and he’s shown that, but he also has the ability to
lose quite a few in a row, and he’s shown that, too.
Wainwright,
Wacha, and Garcis are the only three that are locks for the rotation.
Wainwright because he is the ace, Wacha because he is so talented, and
he has ice running through his veins. Garcia because he has been a
starter the entire time he’s been with the Cardinals and being a lefty,
it does keep the rotation from being strictly right-handed.
I
expect Lyons to also be in Memphis. He was great his first few starts,
but then he just went downhill. I don’t know why, but maybe the
Cardinals do. Either way, he probably needs a little time to get himself
back on track a little, and Memphis will provide him that opportunity.
Who
gets the last two spots? I think it’s Miller and Martinez. I would
personally like it to be Miller and Kelly. I think Kelly has good stuff,
and he showed it in 2013. He was one of the best pitchers in the second
half last year. Lowest ERAs for the second half of 2013 in the NL:
Kershaw at 1.59, Grienke at 1.85, and Kelly at 1.91. I really like him,
and I think he can be a 15-20 game winner if the Cardinals give him a
chance. Martinez might get the nod over him, but I would be personally
upset if it happens. Kelly currently is the better pitcher. If Martinez
gets the spot, Kelly will go back to being the long man out of the
bullpen. If Kelly gets the spot, I expect Martinez to be in Memphis.
No
matter who actually gets into the rotation, I am excited to see those
arms. The depth that the Cardinals have in starting pitching is unlike
any other team has. I will end with this stipulation: I could see one or
two of those guys being traded to get a SS, and that would change this
quickly, but as of right now, that’s what I think will happen.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
My rotation would be Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Garcia as
well. The potential for those five is out of the planet. Joe Kelly is
intriguing, but I think he is near his peak value, but that doesn't mean
I want to trade him. I think he is great in the clubhouse and would be a
great fit in the bullpen.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
What to do with the others.....
Lynn: I
am going to disagree with you all that Lance Lynn does not have that
much trade value. I think people in St. Louis value him a little lower
than those in other MLB cities. If you look at his numbers and take out
the emotion, he has had a couple of solid seasons. I am not saying that
Lynn alone would net Profar or even Starlin Castro, but he could be a
very valuable trade chip. How many other teams would want a perennial 15
game winner?
Rosenthal: Don't let
Mozeliak fool you, Rosenthal will end up the 8th inning guy on one
condition, if Jason Motte is healthy. I know that Mo said he will begin
spring as the closer, but what else should he say? Motte is not
guaranteed to be healthy by then, but i don't think Jason loses his
closing spot due to injury. Wally Pipp may disagree with me.
Maness: As
much as I want Maness to start, the role he played this year was best
for the team, plus there isn't a starting spot for him in St. Louis. He
is one that could be a very solid starter somewhere else, but i am fine
with him as the DP man.
Lyons and Gast: Both begin the season in Memphis with opportunities to fill in at the MLB level.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
I'd
agree pretty much entirely with what John wrote, but for his comments
on Rosenthal. In my mind, Rosie will be the closer, because by time you
can be comfortable with Motte and his recovery, Rosenthal will already
be entrenched. Given the myriad of issues surrounding a hard-throwing
reliever coming off surgery, including command issues, I can't imagine
that Motte would be anything more than an eighth-inning guy. Should
Rosenthal stumble and Motte look good, they might flip, but I'd be
shocked if Rosenthal doesn't get the first save chance of the year.
That's
a bit off topic, but being that I can't disagree with a rotation of
Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia and Martinez, what else am I going to
say?
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
Being late to the party, I will basically break things down as best as I can without being redundant.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
Maness, Gast, Lyons and Rosenthal aren't in the convo, for various reasons.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
<Strauss'd> intrigue... </Strauss'd>
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
Barring
further injury, my starting rotation out of the listed candidates has
to Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez unless Lance Lynn
finds a way to be not be traded.
Lynn is premium trade material. He has a fine
resume that includes over 30 wins in two seasons and good bullpen work.
He is young and hungry and may need a change of scenery to lower his
pouting potential.
Jaime is making 7 million this year so he needs to
be in the rotation and he is a lefty who can be great when he is on.
Let's hope his feelings are in check.
Joe
Kelly is Mr. Stretch. He can start, relieve, and close and will find
himself in that long arm bullpen spot to begin the season as insurance
in case someone gets hurt. Few can do what he does effectively. Be
solid out of the bullpen and win a lot of starts. His mindset is key
and helps him adjust. I am surprised teams don't target him in a trade
because of his versatility.
Lyons and Gast are Memphis starters until injuries
happen. They performed well in 2013 but won't climb over guys like
Martinez and Kelly for starts, at least not again. These guys are also
trade depth because they proved they can come up to big leagues and
instantly win games. Look for them to be add on's to big deals Mozelaik
keeps up his sleeve.
Trevor Rosenthal is a setup-closer with this team
for a long time. He has the makeup, ability and finish to go into the
ninth and let it rip. We saw it for good when he saved 3 games in the
final week of the season and basically made the Pirates, Dodgers and Red
Sox look stupid for a month. He has a propane heater and a decent
changeup and if he was going to try his hand at starting again, he would
have to redefine that third pitch. I get why he wants to start but at
this point it's futile. Jason Motte will be back but won't be ready to
even compete for the closer role until July. Motte had the surgery in
May of 2013 which means he may not touch a baseball diamond during a
real game until late April/early May. He will find his control and
slowly develop back into that stopper we knew from 2011 and 2012. He
will set up until the Cards really deem it necessary to switch him and
Rosenthal. If Trevor is throwing gas and closing everything, it won't
happen unless Motte is electric. I do think Motte gets back to the
closer role sometime, but too late for Rosenthal to switch back to
starting. Motte makes 6 million this year but needs to get healthy.
Rosenthal may say he would like to start but watching him close in
October I see a man empowered and having a lot of fun. Let's not
believe he is wanting to truly move just yet ladies and gents.
There I go too. Wow. Just like Shoptaw. HA! Must be a Daniel thing.
Waino, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez for me in early April.
Chris Mallonee - Bird On The Bat 82
If we are answering "who we would want" instead of "who do we think it
will be", then I will go with Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller, Lynn as
the Opening Day Starters.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
I also don't want to delve too deep into what hasn't happened yet,
such as trades and situations like that. Basically, what it comes down
to is Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez in a
four-corners match, albeit one that is not that difficult to sort out.
Martinez has the best arm of the group (and maybe
the entire team). With the said, I'd like to see him in a year like
Rosenthal, at the end of the pen in some capacity. Motte's status is
uncertain and both Axford and Mujica are gone. Bottomline, the back end
of the bullpen is questionable, and bringing Martinez along there would
be a perfect way for him to gain some Big League experience and expand
his repertoire.
Garcia is purely a starter, and a much needed
left-handed one at that, so he's in there too from the moment he's
ready. All indications say that's spring training as of now, so that
brings the rotation to a four-man group.
For the final spot, I opt with Lance Lynn. He's not
always the popular choice, and surely isn't the most consistent of the
group, however, there are a lot of things that work in his favor. He's
still young, is steadily racking up experienced innings and still has a
great skills package that can develop. He would be as good of a
fourth/fifth starter that any team in the NL would have on their side.
So, if the Cardinals can break camp (for the first time since 2010) with a completely healthy rotation, I'd like to see a Wainwright, Miller, Garcia, Wacha, Lynn (in that order) mix take to the mound.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
Who I would want: Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia, Martinez
Who I think it will be: Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Martinez, Kelly
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I've given this way more thought than I should,
and the trio at the back-end keeps changing by the hour. Most of us
know it really doesn't matter who starts the season in the rotation,
however, the changing of the guard could be 2014.
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
The Cardinals have an abundance of riches with a stockpile of young arms to choose from for their starting rotation. The only locks I see for the 2014 rotation are Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha.
Jaime Garcia should grab the 4th slot, but only if he proves to be healthy, which, when dealing with shoulder injuries, particularly labrum tears, is never a sure thing.
Lance Lynn will probably end up getting traded as part of a package for a shortstop, as he is in desperate need of a change in scenery.
That leaves Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez to battle it out for the 5th spot. Kelly will probably be wondering what he has to do to prove he is a major league starter, especially after going 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons. However, just like Shelby Miller did this spring, I see Martinez beating Kelly out for the last spot, leaving Kelly to return to his long relief role.
John Gast and Tyler Lyons will return to Memphis to provide depth and Seth Maness will return to the bullpen.
Trevor Rosenthal will start the season as the Cardinals closer and never look back, even when Jason Motte returns. After his dominant display at the end of the season and in the postseason, I just don't see him relinquishing the closer role.
Overall, its a good problem to have and one that will take the Cardinals some time to sort out both during the offseason and next spring.
Wednesday, October 30, 2013
World Series victory not in the Cards
OK, so the Cardinals didn't have what it takes to win the World Series this year. Although I'm older and not as deeply invested in the Cards like I was as a kid, it still stings a little.
With that said, here are some quick closing thoughts on the World Series and the Cardinals in general, as their season comes to an end:
Michael Wacha is human
Despite such heroic efforts throughout the postseason, Wacha couldn't keep the Red Sox at bay tonight, giving up 6 runs in 3.2 innings, although two of those runs came around to score after Wacha had left the game.
Still, it was a pretty good postseason for the youngster, with a 4-1 record and a 2.64 ERA. If you include the regular season, Wacha went 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 95.1 innings.
He should be a lock for the starting rotation next season and for years to come.
The Cardinals bats went silent
Although the Cardinals managed 9 hits on the night, they were only able to score 1 run in the game. They hit a paltry .224 for the series with just 14 runs in the 6 games (2.3 per game).
In the last 3 games, the Cardinals managed only 4 runs. You aren't going to win many games that way, no matter who is pitching.
Trevor Rosenthal will be the Cardinals closer in 2014
Rosenthal had a dominant postseason, allowing zero runs in 10.2 innings while striking out 17. He was 1-0 with 4 saves and has pretty much locked up the closer job for 2014.
Jason Motte will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery to start next season and Edward Mujica probably earned himself a big paycheck elsewhere, so the job is Rosenthal's to lose.
He could become the right handed version of the Reds' Aroldis Chapman.
Will Carlos Martinez be a starter or a reliever?
After spending the entire postseason in the pen, it remains to be seen what the long term plan is for Carlos Martinez.
It would be a shame to waste a talent like his in a bullpen role, as he could add much more value as a starter in the Pedro Martinez mold.
However, with so many starters vying for the top 5 spots, it may require a trade or an injury for him to crack the rotation.
Good News/Bad News
The good news is that the Cardinals will have a young and formidable nucleus to build around for years to come.
Headlined by youngsters Wacha, Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, along with veterans Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay, the Cardinals should once again be a championship caliber team next year.
The bad news is that the Red Sox will still have David Ortiz and Jon Lester (if they pick up his option) next year.
With that said, here are some quick closing thoughts on the World Series and the Cardinals in general, as their season comes to an end:
Michael Wacha is human
Despite such heroic efforts throughout the postseason, Wacha couldn't keep the Red Sox at bay tonight, giving up 6 runs in 3.2 innings, although two of those runs came around to score after Wacha had left the game.
Still, it was a pretty good postseason for the youngster, with a 4-1 record and a 2.64 ERA. If you include the regular season, Wacha went 8-2 with a 2.74 ERA in 95.1 innings.
He should be a lock for the starting rotation next season and for years to come.
The Cardinals bats went silent
Although the Cardinals managed 9 hits on the night, they were only able to score 1 run in the game. They hit a paltry .224 for the series with just 14 runs in the 6 games (2.3 per game).
In the last 3 games, the Cardinals managed only 4 runs. You aren't going to win many games that way, no matter who is pitching.
Trevor Rosenthal will be the Cardinals closer in 2014
Rosenthal had a dominant postseason, allowing zero runs in 10.2 innings while striking out 17. He was 1-0 with 4 saves and has pretty much locked up the closer job for 2014.
Jason Motte will still be recovering from Tommy John surgery to start next season and Edward Mujica probably earned himself a big paycheck elsewhere, so the job is Rosenthal's to lose.
He could become the right handed version of the Reds' Aroldis Chapman.
Will Carlos Martinez be a starter or a reliever?
After spending the entire postseason in the pen, it remains to be seen what the long term plan is for Carlos Martinez.
It would be a shame to waste a talent like his in a bullpen role, as he could add much more value as a starter in the Pedro Martinez mold.
However, with so many starters vying for the top 5 spots, it may require a trade or an injury for him to crack the rotation.
Good News/Bad News
The good news is that the Cardinals will have a young and formidable nucleus to build around for years to come.
Headlined by youngsters Wacha, Rosenthal, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Matt Carpenter, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, along with veterans Wainwright, Yadier Molina, Matt Holliday and Jon Jay, the Cardinals should once again be a championship caliber team next year.
The bad news is that the Red Sox will still have David Ortiz and Jon Lester (if they pick up his option) next year.
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
What have we learned so far from the 2013 World Series?
Thanks to FOX and the World Series, I have finally gotten a chance to regularly watch the Cardinals up here in Chicagoland.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Cardinals need Michael Wacha to come through again tonight
After game one of the World Series, in which the Cardinals seemed to sleep walk through the game, making several mental (and physical) errors, the Cards need a wake-up call.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Monday, October 21, 2013
What would the Cardinals look like if they had resigned Albert Pujols?
With the Cardinals in the World Series and the Los Angeles Angels not even making the playoffs, its easy to say that the Cards made the right decision in letting Pujols walk after the 2011 season. Scott Miller of CBS Sports basically says that the Cardinals are better off without Pujols, and I tend to agree with him.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
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