Last year I made the case for letting Carlos Beltran walk when he became a free agent after the season. His age, asking price and the fact that the Cardinals could insert Matt Adams into the lineup made the decision relatively easy.
This year, Jason Motte is in the last year of his two-year, $12 million contract extension that he signed back in January 2013. Unfortunately for the team, Motte missed all of 2013 following Tommy John surgery and just recently made it back to the majors.
However, despite his injury and likely salary demands, I think the Cardinals should try to sign Motte to an extension.
For one thing, the team's seemingly endless supply of young power arms appears to be drying up. With Trevor Rosenthal, Kevin Siegrist, Carlos Martinez and Sam Freeman already in the big leagues, there are few power arms remaining in the high minors.
The result is that the Cardinals have lacked depth in their bullpen and thus have had to rely on guys like Keith Butler and Eric Fornataro with little success. In addition, one of the team's better relievers, Pat Neshek, will also become a free agent after the season, potentially leaving the Cards with another hole in their pen.
Another factor is the struggles of Trevor Rosenthal. After a stellar postseason in 2013 as the Cardinals closer, Rosenthal has not been able to carry that success to this season. He currently owns a 4.26 ERA and his walk rate has more than doubled from 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 to 4.9 BB/9 in 2014. His struggles raises concerns about his ability to hold the closer job long-term and Motte has proven he is more than capable of holding down the job.
Finally, while Motte has pitched fairly well so for this year, I expect him to be even better next season. As we saw with Adam Wainwright, it usually takes around 12 months to recover from Tommy John surgery, but around 18 months to 2 years to get back to where you were before.
Wainwright struggled in his first season back form TJ surgery, but proved last year that he was back to full strength and has been even better this year.
As Motte is no longer closing for the Cardinals (at least not yet anyway), they may be able to sign him to a team-friendly contract that could include incentives should he regain the closer role. In any case, the Cards could certainly use his arm in the pen for 2015 and beyond.
Showing posts with label 2014 bullpen. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 bullpen. Show all posts
Wednesday, June 4, 2014
Tuesday, May 20, 2014
Cardinals are content to stand pat...for now
While many Cardinals fans may be panicking over the team's sluggish start, GM John Mozeliak is not. Both Rick Hummel and Ken Rosenthal posted articles recently indicating the the Cardinals GM is not looking to make a move any time soon.
However, that doesn't mean that one won't be coming in the future, as Mo says "That doesn’t mean we’re going to sit back and be complacent and do nothing. We’ll survey markets and see where we might go. It’s a little too early to say what we might chase.’’
The Cardinals offense has started to show signs of life and their bullpen will get a boost from the return of Jason Motte, so its hard to see where the Cards have a glaring need.
One area where the Cards have struggled is second base, where the team has a .207/.276/.250 line so far this season. However, since his return from the minors, Kolten Wong has gone 5 for 11 to raise his average to .256 and is starting to look like he belongs in the majors.
Another problem area has been right field, where Allen Craig resides. His .226/.281/.354 line is the main reason the Cardinals right fielders are hitting .203/.254/.326 as a group. However, Craig is still a career .297 hitter and its too soon to give up on him.
Finally, center field has been an issue for the Redbirds, where projected starter Peter Bourjos got off to a slow start, leading Manager Mike Matheny to play the defensively challenged Jon Jay more in the early going. However, Bourjos' bat has come alive in May, to the tune of .324/.390/.486, leading to more playing time for him and less talk of promoting Oscar Taveras.
Overall, the Cardinals have the talent and the depth to get on a hot streak and pass the fading Brewers. Once guys like Craig, Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter start hitting like they should, the wins should follow.
However, that doesn't mean that one won't be coming in the future, as Mo says "That doesn’t mean we’re going to sit back and be complacent and do nothing. We’ll survey markets and see where we might go. It’s a little too early to say what we might chase.’’
The Cardinals offense has started to show signs of life and their bullpen will get a boost from the return of Jason Motte, so its hard to see where the Cards have a glaring need.
One area where the Cards have struggled is second base, where the team has a .207/.276/.250 line so far this season. However, since his return from the minors, Kolten Wong has gone 5 for 11 to raise his average to .256 and is starting to look like he belongs in the majors.
Another problem area has been right field, where Allen Craig resides. His .226/.281/.354 line is the main reason the Cardinals right fielders are hitting .203/.254/.326 as a group. However, Craig is still a career .297 hitter and its too soon to give up on him.
Finally, center field has been an issue for the Redbirds, where projected starter Peter Bourjos got off to a slow start, leading Manager Mike Matheny to play the defensively challenged Jon Jay more in the early going. However, Bourjos' bat has come alive in May, to the tune of .324/.390/.486, leading to more playing time for him and less talk of promoting Oscar Taveras.
Overall, the Cardinals have the talent and the depth to get on a hot streak and pass the fading Brewers. Once guys like Craig, Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter start hitting like they should, the wins should follow.
Monday, May 19, 2014
Jason Motte's return should restore order to the Cardinals bullpen
Yesterday's loss to the Braves was cringe-worthy, to say the least. Trevor Rosenthal, working for the 4th straight day, didn't have enough gas left in the tank to finish off the Braves and they were able to score two runs in the 9th to beat the Cardinals.
Many are questioning why Mike Matheny would even use Rosenthal again in that situation, when he had Carlos Martinez warming up and Pat Neshek needed just 3 pitches to end the 8th inning.
I can understand Matheny's reluctance to use Martinez, who has a 5.87 ERA in May. But Neshek has been excellent so far this year and was making his first appearance since May 13th, so he was well rested.
Sometimes I think managers rely to much on the closer label than just going with what makes the most sense for that game.
In any case, things should get better soon.
Jason Motte is scheduled to come off the DL Tuesday and should quickly step into a prominent role in the Cardinals bullpen. Matheny indicated that he would not be afraid to use Motte in a "high-leverage situation."
It will be interesting to see who they send down when Motte is activated. I have long thought that Martinez would be the one to go, so that he could be stretched out as a starter again. However, with the bullpen issues, its more likely that Sam Freeman will be sent down and the Cards will go with their best relievers.
If that happens, Motte will ease some of the pressure on Kevin Siegrist, Neshek, Martinez and even Rosenthal, by giving Matheny one more reliable option to choose from late in a game. In addition, Seth Maness appears to have found his sinker again (0.00 ERA in 5.2 IP in May), Randy Choate will go back to being just another LOOGY (.167 average against vs lefties this season versus .400 vs righties) and all will be right in the world.
In any case, having Motte back can do nothing but help the Cardinals beleaguered bullpen.
Many are questioning why Mike Matheny would even use Rosenthal again in that situation, when he had Carlos Martinez warming up and Pat Neshek needed just 3 pitches to end the 8th inning.
I can understand Matheny's reluctance to use Martinez, who has a 5.87 ERA in May. But Neshek has been excellent so far this year and was making his first appearance since May 13th, so he was well rested.
Sometimes I think managers rely to much on the closer label than just going with what makes the most sense for that game.
In any case, things should get better soon.
Jason Motte is scheduled to come off the DL Tuesday and should quickly step into a prominent role in the Cardinals bullpen. Matheny indicated that he would not be afraid to use Motte in a "high-leverage situation."
It will be interesting to see who they send down when Motte is activated. I have long thought that Martinez would be the one to go, so that he could be stretched out as a starter again. However, with the bullpen issues, its more likely that Sam Freeman will be sent down and the Cards will go with their best relievers.
If that happens, Motte will ease some of the pressure on Kevin Siegrist, Neshek, Martinez and even Rosenthal, by giving Matheny one more reliable option to choose from late in a game. In addition, Seth Maness appears to have found his sinker again (0.00 ERA in 5.2 IP in May), Randy Choate will go back to being just another LOOGY (.167 average against vs lefties this season versus .400 vs righties) and all will be right in the world.
In any case, having Motte back can do nothing but help the Cardinals beleaguered bullpen.
Wednesday, May 14, 2014
Could Jason Motte replace Trevor Rosenthal as Cardinals closer?
Last night Trevor Rosenthal blew a save in the Cardinals eventual 4-3 victory over the Cubs. While that isn't very concerning, considering that Rosenthal had converted 10 straight saves prior to last night, what is concerning is that Trevor now has a 5.19 ERA while allowing 5.7 BB/9.
Could Rosenthal's struggles open the door for Jason Motte to return to the closer role?
Its possible, but probably not right away.
First, Motte has to make it back to the major leagues. He is still rehabbing at AAA Memphis and has yet to be promoted to the majors. While that could happen soon, there is always the possibility of a setback.
Second, Motte has to prove he's healthy and capable of getting major leaguers out. While he has yet to be scored upon, his velocity is still a bit down from his pre-surgery days. During his rehab his fastball has been sitting in the 91-95 mph range, whereas, prior to his injury, he was throwing around 98 mph. That may be good enough to get minor leaguers out, but is it good enough for the majors?
Finally, despite his struggles, Rosenthal has still only blown one save in 11 tries. That, by itself, is not enough to warrant a change.
However, what could precipitate a change are the walks. Last season, in 75.1 IP, Rosenthal only allowed 2.4 BB/9. This year, he has more than doubled that figure.
In addition, Rosenthal's velocity is down this year, from an average of 96.4 mph with a high of 101.4 in 2013, to an average of 95.9 with a high of just 98.7 this year. Could he be hiding an injury? Its possible, but until he comes forward, we just have to the weather and/or other factors.
Bottom line, with Motte's return eminent, Rosenthal had better get his act together or he could soon find himself in a setup role.
Could Rosenthal's struggles open the door for Jason Motte to return to the closer role?
Its possible, but probably not right away.
First, Motte has to make it back to the major leagues. He is still rehabbing at AAA Memphis and has yet to be promoted to the majors. While that could happen soon, there is always the possibility of a setback.
Second, Motte has to prove he's healthy and capable of getting major leaguers out. While he has yet to be scored upon, his velocity is still a bit down from his pre-surgery days. During his rehab his fastball has been sitting in the 91-95 mph range, whereas, prior to his injury, he was throwing around 98 mph. That may be good enough to get minor leaguers out, but is it good enough for the majors?
Finally, despite his struggles, Rosenthal has still only blown one save in 11 tries. That, by itself, is not enough to warrant a change.
However, what could precipitate a change are the walks. Last season, in 75.1 IP, Rosenthal only allowed 2.4 BB/9. This year, he has more than doubled that figure.
In addition, Rosenthal's velocity is down this year, from an average of 96.4 mph with a high of 101.4 in 2013, to an average of 95.9 with a high of just 98.7 this year. Could he be hiding an injury? Its possible, but until he comes forward, we just have to the weather and/or other factors.
Bottom line, with Motte's return eminent, Rosenthal had better get his act together or he could soon find himself in a setup role.
Tuesday, April 8, 2014
Does Cardinals manager Mike Matheny trust his bullpen?
One week into the season, you get the sense that Cardinals manager Mike Matheny does not trust his entire bullpen.
In the first 7 games, Matheny has leaned heavily on holdovers Trevor Rosenthal (3 games), Carlos Martinez (4 games), Pat Neshek (4 games) and Kevin Siegrist (5 games).
However, rubber-armed LOOGY Randy Choate has appeared in just 2 games, while last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness and this year's "last spot in the bullpen" winner Keith Butler have appeared in just one game apiece.
I can understand the reluctance to use Butler, who was rocked for 5 runs in his lone inning of work, however, the lack of use for Maness and even Choate is unexplicable.
Using Maness and Choate more would help ease the burden on both Neshek and Siegrist, who, at this pace, would appear in a whopping 93 and 116 games for the season.
Martinez is another problem though.
My initial thought was that, once Jason Motte gets healthy, he would replace Martinez in the bullpen, so that Martinez might be stretched out again as a starter. However, now I'm not so sure.
Maybe the plan is that Motte replaces Butler in the pen and then Motte and Martinez split the setup duties.
Its not the best case scenario for Martinez' development, but it probably would be best for the team this season.
The bullpen is still a work-in-progress at this point and things may become clearer as the season wears on.
However, one thing is for sure, Matheny needs to find some other guys he can rely on this season or were going to have a lot of tired arms come September.
In the first 7 games, Matheny has leaned heavily on holdovers Trevor Rosenthal (3 games), Carlos Martinez (4 games), Pat Neshek (4 games) and Kevin Siegrist (5 games).
However, rubber-armed LOOGY Randy Choate has appeared in just 2 games, while last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness and this year's "last spot in the bullpen" winner Keith Butler have appeared in just one game apiece.
I can understand the reluctance to use Butler, who was rocked for 5 runs in his lone inning of work, however, the lack of use for Maness and even Choate is unexplicable.
Using Maness and Choate more would help ease the burden on both Neshek and Siegrist, who, at this pace, would appear in a whopping 93 and 116 games for the season.
Martinez is another problem though.
My initial thought was that, once Jason Motte gets healthy, he would replace Martinez in the bullpen, so that Martinez might be stretched out again as a starter. However, now I'm not so sure.
Maybe the plan is that Motte replaces Butler in the pen and then Motte and Martinez split the setup duties.
Its not the best case scenario for Martinez' development, but it probably would be best for the team this season.
The bullpen is still a work-in-progress at this point and things may become clearer as the season wears on.
However, one thing is for sure, Matheny needs to find some other guys he can rely on this season or were going to have a lot of tired arms come September.
Sunday, March 16, 2014
Cardinals Spring Training Battle #2: The Bullpen
The good thing about having a solid team, like the Cardinals, is that there is not a lot of unsettled positions heading into the season. A little over a week ago, I took a look at the Cards 5th starter competition.
Tonight, I will look at the bullpen.
Sure Things
Given the way that they pitched last year, there are four pitchers who are virtual locks to open the season in the major league bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and veteran LOOGY Randy Choate.
Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and should be for the whole season. Siegrist was nearly unhittable last season, posting a 0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings. Choate does was he always does, gets lefties out, holding them to a .176 average (.492 OPS) in 2013. Maness' performance this spring may give Mike Matheny some pause (9.39 ERA in 7.2 IP), but his 2.32 ERA and incredible 4.40 GO/AO ratio in 2013 is what probably matters more to Matheny.
The Almost Sure Thing
One of Joe Kelly or Carlos Martinez, whoever loses out in the 5th starter battle, will likely end up in the Cardinals pen to start the 2014 season.
Martinez performed well as the Cards eighth inning guy in the playoffs last year and could fill the same role this year. While Kelly was valuable to the team as a swingman last season.
The Battle
We can assume that the Cardinals will go with at least 7 relievers to start the season (maybe 8), so that leaves two spots open.
The leading candidates are Pat Neshek, Sam Freeman, Tyler Lyons, Jorge Rondon and Keith Butler.
Non-roster invitee, Neshek, has the advantage of experience, with a career 2.56 ERA in 9 seasons. He has also pitched well this spring allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings. He is likely going to earn one spot.
Freeman has a career 2.75 ERA in the minors and pitched well in his September callup last year (2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP). His main problem is his control (career 3.9 BB/9 in the minors).
Lyons has not pitched well this spring, allowing 8 runs in 6.2 IP. However, he did fare well in a relief role towards the end of last season (1 ER in 9.1 IP).
Rondon has yet to allow a run this spring in 6.1 IP. However, his minor league track record is less than stellar (4.86 ERA in 8 seasons).
Butler has the minor league stats (2.29 ERA and 265 K's in 212 IP), but has struggled with his control at the major league level, giving up 11 walks in 20 innings last year and 5 walks in 7.1 innings this spring.
Prediction
As of right now, I would have to go with Neshek and Freeman for the last two bullpen spots. Lyons will likely start the 2014 season in Memphis' rotation, while Rondon and Butler will likely ride the Memphis/St.Louis shuttle this season, whenever the Cards need a fresh arm.
Tonight, I will look at the bullpen.
Sure Things
Given the way that they pitched last year, there are four pitchers who are virtual locks to open the season in the major league bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, Seth Maness, Kevin Siegrist and veteran LOOGY Randy Choate.
Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and should be for the whole season. Siegrist was nearly unhittable last season, posting a 0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings. Choate does was he always does, gets lefties out, holding them to a .176 average (.492 OPS) in 2013. Maness' performance this spring may give Mike Matheny some pause (9.39 ERA in 7.2 IP), but his 2.32 ERA and incredible 4.40 GO/AO ratio in 2013 is what probably matters more to Matheny.
The Almost Sure Thing
One of Joe Kelly or Carlos Martinez, whoever loses out in the 5th starter battle, will likely end up in the Cardinals pen to start the 2014 season.
Martinez performed well as the Cards eighth inning guy in the playoffs last year and could fill the same role this year. While Kelly was valuable to the team as a swingman last season.
The Battle
We can assume that the Cardinals will go with at least 7 relievers to start the season (maybe 8), so that leaves two spots open.
The leading candidates are Pat Neshek, Sam Freeman, Tyler Lyons, Jorge Rondon and Keith Butler.
Non-roster invitee, Neshek, has the advantage of experience, with a career 2.56 ERA in 9 seasons. He has also pitched well this spring allowing only 2 runs in 6 innings. He is likely going to earn one spot.
Freeman has a career 2.75 ERA in the minors and pitched well in his September callup last year (2.19 ERA in 12.1 IP). His main problem is his control (career 3.9 BB/9 in the minors).
Lyons has not pitched well this spring, allowing 8 runs in 6.2 IP. However, he did fare well in a relief role towards the end of last season (1 ER in 9.1 IP).
Rondon has yet to allow a run this spring in 6.1 IP. However, his minor league track record is less than stellar (4.86 ERA in 8 seasons).
Butler has the minor league stats (2.29 ERA and 265 K's in 212 IP), but has struggled with his control at the major league level, giving up 11 walks in 20 innings last year and 5 walks in 7.1 innings this spring.
Prediction
As of right now, I would have to go with Neshek and Freeman for the last two bullpen spots. Lyons will likely start the 2014 season in Memphis' rotation, while Rondon and Butler will likely ride the Memphis/St.Louis shuttle this season, whenever the Cards need a fresh arm.
Monday, February 24, 2014
How does Jaime Garcia's injury affect the Cardinals bullpen?
With Jaime Garcia nursing a sore shoulder and already ruled out of the rotation, at least for the beginning of the season, one of either Joe Kelly or Carlos Martinez will take over for him. However, as both of those guys were slated to fill roles in the Cardinals pen, what do the Cards do to fill that hole?
Currently the bullpen consists of closer Trevor Rosenthal, setup men Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, LOOGY Randy Choate and a bunch of question marks.
With a healthy Garcia, Martinez could have served as the 8th inning guy while Kelly could have acted as a swing-man, filling the long-relief role and making spot starts, as needed. However, if Martinez earns a rotation spot, who will pitch the 8th or if Kelly earns the spot, who is your long-reliever/spot starter?
Jason Motte has shown good progress to date and could potentially be ready for a bullpen role at the start of the season. But, do the Cardinals want to throw him right into the fire and make him the 8th guy? Not likely.
Pat Neshek was signed to a minor league deal and could be a nice addition to the pen. He has a career 3.07 ERA over 7 years, including a 3.35 ERA in 40.1 innings last year with Oakland.
Then you've got young guys like Sam Freeman and Keith Butler who could earn a spot in the pen, but are largely unproven.
My feeling is that Kelly will earn the 5th starter spot and that Martinez will serve as the 8th inning guy, at least at the start of the season. Once Motte proves himself healthy and reliable, he can take over the 8th inning role and allow Martinez to head down to AAA to stretch himself out for the rotation. He can then take over for Kelly down the stretch, if needed.
The benefits to this are two-fold. One, it preserves Martinez' innings so that the Cardinals do not overtax him in his first full big league season and two it gives the team another extended look at Kelly as a starter to determine if he's really as good as his career 13-9 and 3.03 ERA record (in 31 starts) would indicate.
I still think Martinez is best used as a starter and therefore want him to get more work in AAA this season to refine his secondary pitches, thus I only see his stint in the bullpen as a temporary assignment. However, if things don't go well, i.e. Motte is ineffective or the other rookies don't step up, Martinez may end up in the pen all year, which could be a detriment to his development.
In any case, its nice to have some pitching depth when it comes to the Cardinals starters, but it makes you wonder if the Cards have enough depth in the pen.
Currently the bullpen consists of closer Trevor Rosenthal, setup men Kevin Siegrist and Seth Maness, LOOGY Randy Choate and a bunch of question marks.
With a healthy Garcia, Martinez could have served as the 8th inning guy while Kelly could have acted as a swing-man, filling the long-relief role and making spot starts, as needed. However, if Martinez earns a rotation spot, who will pitch the 8th or if Kelly earns the spot, who is your long-reliever/spot starter?
Jason Motte has shown good progress to date and could potentially be ready for a bullpen role at the start of the season. But, do the Cardinals want to throw him right into the fire and make him the 8th guy? Not likely.
Pat Neshek was signed to a minor league deal and could be a nice addition to the pen. He has a career 3.07 ERA over 7 years, including a 3.35 ERA in 40.1 innings last year with Oakland.
Then you've got young guys like Sam Freeman and Keith Butler who could earn a spot in the pen, but are largely unproven.
My feeling is that Kelly will earn the 5th starter spot and that Martinez will serve as the 8th inning guy, at least at the start of the season. Once Motte proves himself healthy and reliable, he can take over the 8th inning role and allow Martinez to head down to AAA to stretch himself out for the rotation. He can then take over for Kelly down the stretch, if needed.
The benefits to this are two-fold. One, it preserves Martinez' innings so that the Cardinals do not overtax him in his first full big league season and two it gives the team another extended look at Kelly as a starter to determine if he's really as good as his career 13-9 and 3.03 ERA record (in 31 starts) would indicate.
I still think Martinez is best used as a starter and therefore want him to get more work in AAA this season to refine his secondary pitches, thus I only see his stint in the bullpen as a temporary assignment. However, if things don't go well, i.e. Motte is ineffective or the other rookies don't step up, Martinez may end up in the pen all year, which could be a detriment to his development.
In any case, its nice to have some pitching depth when it comes to the Cardinals starters, but it makes you wonder if the Cards have enough depth in the pen.
Sunday, December 29, 2013
What is the best way to develop the Cardinals' Carlos Martinez in the 2014 season?
Derrick Goold posted an interesting article a couple days ago stating that Carlos Martinez could be this year's Trevor Rosenthal.
If you remember, Rosenthal was slated to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, along with Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. However, he was bumped to the bullpen without really getting a shot at the rotation, while Kelly and Miller battled it out for the final spot.
Fast forward to spring 2014 and we could find Martinez in a similar situation. After a nice showing in relief down the stretch and in the postseason, the Cardinals, who have several options for the rotation, could slot Martinez in the bullpen, basically replacing Rosenthal as setup man.
Martinez could certainly excel in that role. However, Martinez could be a whole lot more valuable as a starter, with the upside of an ace.
To me, it would make more sense in the long run if the Cardinals followed the Michael Wacha 2013 development plan. Keep Martinez in AAA to work on his secondary pitches and as insurance should injuries occur in the rotation.
After a very strong spring, the Cardinals were highly tempted to include Wacha on their opening day roster, but with the exception of a 3-start stint in late-May and early June, Wacha spent most of the year in the minors, mainly trying to refine his breaking ball. He was called up to make a spot start on August 10th, then spent the next 3 weeks in the bullpen before returning to the rotation for good on August 28th.
All told, Wacha worked 180.1 innings in 2013, including 30.2 in the playoffs, which was a 46 innings increase over his 2012 workload (Wacha pitched 134.1 innings in 2012, including college).
The Cards reportedly wanted to limit Wacha to 150 innings in 2013, which they did--in the regular season. However, his dominance in the post season proved too valuable for the team to pass on and they leaned on him heavily in the playoffs and World Series.
In contract, the Cardinals placed a 180 innings limit on fellow rookie Shelby Miller and, after pitching 173.1 innings in the regular season, the team only used him for one inning in the post season.
Due to a late start to his season and being used primarily in a relief role in the majors, Martinez logged just 120.2 innings this year. Thus, its likely the Cardinals would limit him to a similar 150 innings as they placed on Wacha and, if they follow the same development path as they did with Wacha, they can accomplish just that.
If the Cardinals put Martinez in the bullpen for all of 2014, he would be limited to around 70-80 innings for the year. Then, if the Cardinals needed him to fill a rotation spot in 2015, he would be hard pressed to throw the requisite 160-180 innings required of a full-time starter.
The ideal scenario would be to start Martinez in the bullpen as the setup man for Rosenthal to begin the 2014 season. Then, when Jason Motte proves healthy, he can take over the setup role and Martinez can return to the minors to further his development as a starter.
This would help limit Martinez' innings while also allowing him to complete his development and perhaps, down the stretch, we can see Martinez become the 2014 version of Wacha.
If you remember, Rosenthal was slated to compete for a rotation spot in the spring, along with Joe Kelly and Shelby Miller. However, he was bumped to the bullpen without really getting a shot at the rotation, while Kelly and Miller battled it out for the final spot.
Fast forward to spring 2014 and we could find Martinez in a similar situation. After a nice showing in relief down the stretch and in the postseason, the Cardinals, who have several options for the rotation, could slot Martinez in the bullpen, basically replacing Rosenthal as setup man.
Martinez could certainly excel in that role. However, Martinez could be a whole lot more valuable as a starter, with the upside of an ace.
To me, it would make more sense in the long run if the Cardinals followed the Michael Wacha 2013 development plan. Keep Martinez in AAA to work on his secondary pitches and as insurance should injuries occur in the rotation.
After a very strong spring, the Cardinals were highly tempted to include Wacha on their opening day roster, but with the exception of a 3-start stint in late-May and early June, Wacha spent most of the year in the minors, mainly trying to refine his breaking ball. He was called up to make a spot start on August 10th, then spent the next 3 weeks in the bullpen before returning to the rotation for good on August 28th.
All told, Wacha worked 180.1 innings in 2013, including 30.2 in the playoffs, which was a 46 innings increase over his 2012 workload (Wacha pitched 134.1 innings in 2012, including college).
The Cards reportedly wanted to limit Wacha to 150 innings in 2013, which they did--in the regular season. However, his dominance in the post season proved too valuable for the team to pass on and they leaned on him heavily in the playoffs and World Series.
In contract, the Cardinals placed a 180 innings limit on fellow rookie Shelby Miller and, after pitching 173.1 innings in the regular season, the team only used him for one inning in the post season.
Due to a late start to his season and being used primarily in a relief role in the majors, Martinez logged just 120.2 innings this year. Thus, its likely the Cardinals would limit him to a similar 150 innings as they placed on Wacha and, if they follow the same development path as they did with Wacha, they can accomplish just that.
If the Cardinals put Martinez in the bullpen for all of 2014, he would be limited to around 70-80 innings for the year. Then, if the Cardinals needed him to fill a rotation spot in 2015, he would be hard pressed to throw the requisite 160-180 innings required of a full-time starter.
The ideal scenario would be to start Martinez in the bullpen as the setup man for Rosenthal to begin the 2014 season. Then, when Jason Motte proves healthy, he can take over the setup role and Martinez can return to the minors to further his development as a starter.
This would help limit Martinez' innings while also allowing him to complete his development and perhaps, down the stretch, we can see Martinez become the 2014 version of Wacha.
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