What to make of the A.J. Pierzynski signing

The Cardinals made a move to try to shore up their catching situation tonight by signing A.J. Pierzynski.  Per Ken Rosenthal, Pierzynski will join the Cardinals tomorrow in Chicago. 

Should we be worried?

Pierzynski has a reputation around the league as a clubhouse cancer.  A reputation that apparently goes back to at least 2004. 

The Red Sox were undoubtedly aware of his reputation before they signed him to a one-year $8.25 million deal. 

According to Ricky Doyle of NESN, Pierzynski has received the following "honors" from his peers in his career:

• the player they would most like to see beaned (2006);
• the meanest player (2011); and
• the most hated player (2012).

After the signing, Doyle tried to downplay Pierzynski's reputation, saying his "reputation as baseball villain likely overblown, shouldn't be an issue in Boston."  Even when he was designated for assignment, Doyle downplayed his reputation as a reason, saying "his on-field work simply didn't fit the Red Sox's mold."

fit the Red Sox’s mold.

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/07/a-j-pierzynskis-on-field-work-made-catcher-imperfect-fit-for-red-sox/

fit the Red Sox’s mold.

Read more at: http://nesn.com/2014/07/a-j-pierzynskis-on-field-work-made-catcher-imperfect-fit-for-red-sox/

Others were not so kind.  Rob Bradford of WEEI didn't hold any punches saying that "the A.J. Pierzynski problem was worse than anybody could have imagined."  Bradford further states that, "according to multiple sources within the Red Sox clubhouse, Pierzynski had become such a negative influence on the team that players approached both the Sox coaches and front office to address the problem."

So, the Cardinals are bringing in a catcher with a bad reputation, at least some of which is probably warranted.  The questions is whether he is a cancer only when his team is losing, as was the case with the Red Sox, or if he is a cancer all the time.  The Cardinals will find out soon enough. 

Cardinals could trade an outfielder. Who could move and for what?

Its no secret that the Cardinals have a surplus of outfielders in their system, from major leaguers Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig on down to their AAA outfield of Oscar Taveras, Randal Grichuk (who are both currently on the major league roster) and Stephen Piscotty.

In a recent article, Bernie Miklasz indicated that something's got to give, hinting that a trade is the logical thing to do.

But who might the Cardinals trade and what do they need in return?

Well, Darren Wolfson says that the Twins have interest in Jon Jay and that the Cardinals would probably ask for reliever Casey Fien and a prospect in return.  This makes sense for the Cards as they certainly could use the bullpen help and it could open up the possibility of Taveras splitting time with Bourjos in center.

Jon Heyman speculated a while back that the Cardinals could trade either Matt Adams or Allen Craig. However, if the Cardinals were to trade one of those guys, they would be looking for more than a reliever in return. 

According to Miklasz, a scout suggested to him that the Cards could try to make a big splash and acquire a "formidable starting pitcher" to complement Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha in the rotation.  Two of the biggest starting pitching names that have been rumored to be on the block are the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija and the Rays' David Price.

The Cubs don't seem to be willing to pony up the money necessary to extend Samardzija, who is signed through the 2015 season.  However, the Cubs already have a couple of talented outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Do they really need another outfielder and would they want to trade within their own division?

As for the Rays and Price, they could certainly use another outfielder, as they are currently employing David DeJesus in left field.  While he's a decent outfielder, he doesn't have the power normally associated with a corner guy. 

That's not to say that Craig or Adams would be enough to land a pitcher like Price.  Most likely it would require some prospects as well.  For example, when the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals a couple years ago, they acquired the Royals top prospects Wil Meyers and Jake Odorizzi, along with a couple other prospects (Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard).

Are the Cards willing to part with some of their top prospects for Price, who is only under team control through 2015?

Both Price and Samardzija are more valuable than most players on the block this time of year, as they are under team control beyond 2014, but that just means that their teams will be looking for more in return as well.

In any case, this situation bears watching and I'm sure there will be many more rumors floating around as the July 31st trade deadline gets nearer.

Cardinals call up Oscar Taveras. Matt Adams headed for the DL.

The long wait is over, the Cardinals have called up Oscar Taveras.  Unfortunately it comes at the expense of Matt Adams.

Per Derrick Goold, Taveras will be called up on Saturday and likely inserted into the lineup immediately, while Adams will head to the DL with a calf injury.

Its a shame to lose Adams, who is hitting .325/.337/.474 on the year and is one of the team's most productive hitters.  However, the Cardinals hope that Taveras can fill the void, as he was hitting .325/.373/.524 at AAA Memphis.

Taveras will likely play right field while Adams is out, with Allen Craig shifting to 1B.  Recently promoted Randal Grichuk will likely be the DH during the Cardinals road trip to the AL parks that starts on June 4th.

So, the long wait is finally over, however, unless he hits like gangbusters, don't expect his stay to last longer than that of Adams' on the DL.

This time the Cardinals Kolten Wong appears to be getting it right

In many ways, Kolten Wong was the poster child for the Cardinals offensive struggles at the beginning of the season.  While the team was struggling with a .246 average in March and April, Wong didn't help matters, hitting .225 with a.544 OPS.

Never mind that other players were also struggling who were counted on to produce (I'm looking at you Allen Craig), the Cardinals felt the need to make an example out of Wong and sent him to the minors.

To his credit, Wong did not sulk or pout.  He took the demotion as a challenge and tore up AAA pitching to the tune of .344/.382/.484 in 15 games, earning a promotion back to the Cardinals.  Of course, it didn't hurt that his replacement at second base, Mark Ellis, hit only .204 in his absence.

So, Wong got his second chance and thus far he's made the most of it.

Since his return, Wong is hitting .364/.432/.455 and has found a home in the second spot in the batting order.  He has helped spark the Cardinals offense while raising his season average to .269.

The Cardinals offense should kick into gear at some point.  Guys like Allen Craig and Peter Bourjos are starting to show signs of life and top prospect Oscar Taveras could come up next week to DH during the interleague game at the AL parks.

But having a guy at the top of the order who can get on base and wreck havoc will help this team manufacture runs when needed.

Cardinals are content to stand pat...for now

While many Cardinals fans may be panicking over the team's sluggish start, GM John Mozeliak is not.  Both Rick Hummel and Ken Rosenthal posted articles recently indicating the the Cardinals GM is not looking to make a move any time soon.

However, that doesn't mean that one won't be coming in the future, as Mo says "That doesn’t mean we’re going to sit back and be complacent and do nothing. We’ll survey markets and see where we might go. It’s a little too early to say what we might chase.’’

The Cardinals offense has started to show signs of life and their bullpen will get a boost from the return of Jason Motte, so its hard to see where the Cards have a glaring need.

One area where the Cards have struggled is second base, where the team has a .207/.276/.250 line so far this season.  However, since his return from the minors, Kolten Wong has gone 5 for 11 to raise his average to .256 and is starting to look like he belongs in the majors.

Another problem area has been right field, where Allen Craig resides.  His .226/.281/.354 line is the main reason the Cardinals right fielders are hitting .203/.254/.326 as a group.  However, Craig is still a career .297 hitter and its too soon to give up on him.

Finally, center field has been an issue for the Redbirds, where projected starter Peter Bourjos got off to a slow start, leading Manager Mike Matheny to play the defensively challenged Jon Jay more in the early going.  However, Bourjos' bat has come alive in May, to the tune of .324/.390/.486, leading to more playing time for him and less talk of promoting Oscar Taveras.

Overall, the Cardinals have the talent and the depth to get on a hot streak and pass the fading Brewers.  Once guys like Craig, Matt Holliday and Matt Carpenter start hitting like they should, the wins should follow.

Could the Cardinals trade Matt Adams to make room for Oscar Taveras?

With the outfield logjam in the Cardinals system, I have recently speculated that potentially Matt Holliday or Allen Craig could be traded to open up a spot for top prospect Oscar Taveras.  The thinking is that the Cardinals could shed some salary while improving their outfield defense.

However, there is another option out there.

According to Buster Olney (ESPN Insider required), a rival talent evaluator suggested that Matt Adams could be the one to be traded, with Craig moving to first and Taveras playing right field.  The scout suggests that defensive issues are preventing the Cards from promoting Taveras, as he is better suited for a corner outfield spot than center.

I agree that Taveras is unlikely to be a long-term solution in center and that playing him in center field this year would weaken an already poor outfield defense.  Holliday is not going to win any Gold Gloves and Craig is not much better.  Adding Taveras to the mix would create more gaps, due to the limited range of all three.

Peter Bourjos' recent hot streak (he's 5 for 8 in his last 2 games) may give him another opportunity to prove himself capable of handling the everyday center field job, where his range and plus defense is much needed.

At the same time, trading Adams would improve the Cardinals defense in right field (i.e. Taveras > Craig), while not losing much (if anything) at first.

In addition, trading Adams would probably net the Cards more in return, as he is cheaper than either Holliday or Craig and under team control through 2018.

Overall it makes sense, but its unlikely to happen anytime soon.  The Cardinals will likely promote Taveras sometime in June and then rotate their outfielders and first basemen for a time until the July trade deadline.

That is when we will see what, if anything, the Cards do about the logjam.

For Cardinals, help is on the way--just not soon enough for us fans

Its obvious that the Cardinals could use some help.  They lost two out of three to both the Brewers and Cubs before winning the opener against the Braves, bringing their season record to 17-16, 4.5 games behind the Central leading Brewers.

After leading the NL in runs scored last year, the Cardinals currently sit in 10th place with 119 runs in 33 games (3.6 per game).  However, don't expect star prospect Oscar Taveras any time soon.

According to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, Taveras is "average at best" in center field and it "makes more sense for him to play everyday" at AAA Memphis.  In other words, we are not going to promote him until after the Super Two cutoff in June. 

Thus, center field incumbents Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos and even Randal Grichuk have until then to prove themselves worthy of retaining their jobs or one of them will be replaced by Taveras.

The other shaky area for the team is the bullpen, which is 1-5 on the year with 3 blown saves.  While guys like Pat Neshek, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate have done great jobs setting up for closer Trevor Rosenthal, the back-end of the pen has struggled.

Mike Matheny has been wary of relying on guys like last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness, as well as rookies Keith Butler and Eric Fornataro, and for good reason.  They have combined to go 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA. 

However, the light at the end of the tunnel is former closer Jason Motte.  Motte struck out the side in his first rehab appearance at AA Springfield on Sunday and will likely need 2-3 more weeks of rehab according to Mozeliak. 

If he can regain his form, he can help solidify the bullpen and ease the burden on Neshek, Martinez and Siegrist.  He would likely replace rookie Fornataro on the roster.

Finally, after everyone held their collective breath when Jaime Garcia was hit on his left elbow during a rehab outing at AA Springfield on Sunday, it appears to be minor as he will likely pitch off the mound tomorrow and only push back his next start by a few days.

The Cardinals still view Garcia as a starter and its safe to assume that when (or if) he returns, he will be placed in the rotation.  Assuming he returns to form, this will allow the team to shift Joe Kelly back to the pen and either allow the team to demote Seth Maness to AAA to get his sinker working again or send Martinez down to stretch him out for starting duty.

In any case, adding Taveras, Motte and Garcia to the mix would certainly help the team and improve the overall depth.  However, since its unlikely that all of the 3 will be here before June, we are all just hoping that the team can keep within striking distance of the Brewers until then.

Does the Cardinals' Greg Garcia have what it takes to start at second base?

With the demotion of Kolten Wong and the promotion of infielder Greg Garcia, fantasy baseball players everywhere were left asking the question:  Will Greg Garcia start?

Its a legitimate question, as the Cardinals other option, Mark Ellis, is currently hitting .100 (2 for 20), however, is Garcia a legitimate starting second baseman for a major league team?

Short answer--probably not, but that's not to say that Garcia doesn't have his merits.

Over 5 seasons in the minors, he has compiled a .280/.385/.411 line.  He has a little pop, with a career high 10 homers in 2012 and he can steal a base on occasion,  with 14 stolen bases in 2013.

However, what is most impressive about Garcia is his eye and ability to get on base.  In his 2012 breakout season, he drew 80 walks against 83 strikeouts finishing the year with a .408 OBP. 

His minor league stats are very similar to Ellis, who put up a .293/.393/.419 line in the minors prior to his first callup.

Best case scenario - Garcia, who hits left handed, forms a platoon with the right handed Ellis and gets the majority of the at bats while Wong sorts things out in the minors.

Worst case scenario - Garcia spends a month with the team as a pinch-hitter, defensive replacement before being sent back down to the minors when Wong is deemed ready.

While its unlikely that Garcia will make a big impact during his current stay, he could eventually replace the light-hitting and overused Daniel Descalso as the Cardinals primary utility infielder.

Cardinals look to shake thing up by demoting Kolten Wong

With their offense continuing to struggle, the Cardinals decided to shake things up by demoting second baseman Kolten Wong to AAA.  Wong has certainly struggled on the season, hitting just .225/.276/.268, but he is not the only one.

Shortstop Jhonny Peralta (.195/.290/.476) is not doing much to make Cardinals fans forget about Pete Kozma and his offensive struggles.  "Clutch" hitter Allen Craig is sporting a .177 average and just 6 rbi's and offseason acquisition Peter Bourjos has lost his starting job to Jon Jay thanks in large part to his .163 average.

Unfortunately, the Cards cannot demote their entire team, so they are making this change to try to light a fire under the team.

The Cardinals have recalled Greg Garcia to replace Wong on the roster. Mark Ellis should get the lion's share of the starts at second, however, with Ellis hitting only .100 since coming off the DL, don't be surprised to see Garcia split time with Ellis.

In addition to Wong's demotion, the Cardinals also sent down Shane Robinson and called up Randal Grichuk.  Grichuk was hitting .313/.356/.542 in AAA and will look to provide a spark off the bench.

Hopefully Wong's demotion will be short-term as he looks to get his stroke back.  However, it is good to have a veteran like Ellis available to plug into the void and hopefully either he or Garcia can provide the offense with a boost.

St. Louis Cardinals offseason moves and outlook

The Cardinals won the NL Central on their way to the NL championship and their second World Series appearance in the last 3 years before losing to the Red Sox in 6 games.  The Cardinals hope to continue that hot streak in 2014.

Key Losses

Carlos Beltran, John Axford, David Freese, Edward Mujica, Jake Westbrook, Fernando Salas

Key Acquisitions

Peter Bourjos, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Ellis

Coming off a NL championship, the Cardinals did not have many holes to fill this offseason.   GM John Mozeliak worked quickly to fill those holes, trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta before Thanksgiving.  Mo added Mark Ellis in December to complete the 2014 roster.

With the trade of Freese, the Cardinals greatly improved their overall defense.  Bourjos is a superior center fielder to Jon Jay and, with Freese gone, Matt Carpenter can move to his more natural third base position while making room at second for Kolten Wong.  Thus, with one move, the Cardinals improved their defense at 3 positions.

On the flip side, Peralta is a worse defender that the man he's replacing at short, Pete Kozma, however, the Cardinals are counting on his offense more than making up for that difference.

Besides those moves, the biggest change from 2013 is the loss of Carlos Beltran.  He will be replaced in right by Allen Craig, with Matt Adams taking over at first.  However, keep an eye on top prospect Oscar Taveras this spring as he could force his way into the Cardinals plans.

Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday will round out the lineup.  Molina continues to be a MVP caliber player each year with his offense, defense and leadership, while Holliday just continues to rake.

On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller should make up 4/5ths of the starting rotation.  The Cardinals lost free agent Jake Westbrook, who ended up retiring this offseason, but the team has plenty of options to replace him.

Jaime Garcia is option number one for the Cards, should he prove to be healthy.  There are always concerns regarding pitchers coming off shoulder surgery, but the Cardinals could use a lefty in the rotation.

If he is not ready, then one of Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly or Tyler Lyons could step in.  However, it seems more likely that Martinez will work out of the pen, while Kelly serves as the long man and Lyons starts the season at AAA.

In the pen, Trevor Rosenthal will handle the closer duties, after his stellar performance in the postseason.  Jason Motte is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will likely start the season on the DL.  Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness and Randy Choate will also work in relief.

Overall, with their abundance of young arms and improved offense and defense, the Cardinals should once again be the team to beat this year in the NL Central.

SHAMELESS PLUG

For you followers of this blog and Cardinals fans in general, be sure to check out this year's United Cardinals Bloggers annual "Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms: The 2013 St. Louis Cardinals".  In this collection you'll find writing from 17 different Cardinals bloggers (including yours truly), plus a capsule on every player that wore the Birds on the Bat in 2013.  Not only that, but you'll get an overall look at what's to come in 2014. 

Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms is available as an e-book at the Amazon Kindle store for $2.99.  The book can be read on any of the devices in the Kindle family as well as by downloading Amazon's free reading apps for your computer, tablet or smartphone.  It may also be read in your browser directly on Amazon.

Pittsburgh Pirates offseason moves and outlook

The Pirates ended years of suffering for the fans with their first winning season and playoff berth since 1992. They were bounced from the playoffs by the Cardinals, but look to take the next step forward in 2014.

Key Losses

Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, John Buck, A.J. Burnett

Key Acquisitions

Edinson Volquez, Chris McGuiness

Byrd, Morneau and Buck were all mid-season acquisitions by the Pirates as they pushed for a playoff spot.  The losses of Jones and Morneau create the biggest hole on offense as the Pirates do not have a bonafide replacement on their roster.  Gaby Sanchez can fill the short end of a platoon, but the Pirates will hold spring auditions for his counterpart, with recent acquisition Chris McGuiness and prospect Andrew Lambo vying for the spot.

In the outfield, the loss of Byrd means that the Pirates will once again play musical chairs in right field, with Travis Snider, Jose Tabata and possibly Lambo holding down the fort, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is deemed ready.  Expect to see Polanco get the call in mid-to-late June.

Beyond that, the Pirates lineup will look very similar to last year, with holdovers Russell Martin (C), Neil Walker (2B), Clint Barmes/Jordy Mercer (SS), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Andrew McCutchen (CF) and Starling Marte (LF) back.

On the pitching side, the Pirates lost A.J. Burnett to free agency.  The Pirates may use the $12 million they were willing to pay him to sign another starter (Ubaldo Jimenez is still available), but if they fail, they will head into the season with a dubious collection of starters.

Francisco Liriano will lead the staff and Pirates fans will enjoy seeing what young stud Gerrit Cole can do in a full season.  However, beyond that there are questions.

Jeff Locke pitched well last year--for half a season.  He posted a 2.15 ERA in the first half of the year, before bottoming out with a 6.12 ERA in the second half.  It remains to be seen if he can bounce back.

Locke may face a battle with newly acquired Edinson Volquez for a starting spot.  Volquez has always had excellent stuff, but has struggled with his control and consistency.  The Pirates are known for taking other teams pitching castoffs and helping them get back on track (Liriano is the latest example). Volquez could be in line for a similar bounce-back year (or he could just be a lost cause).

Charlie Morton pitched well in 2013 (7-4, 3.26 ERA), but spend most of the first half of the season on the D.L. before making his debut on June 13.  He logged only 116 innings on the year.  The Pirates had enough faith in him to sign him to a 3-year extension, but with a career 4.70 ERA, its a wonder if he deserves it.


Finally, after pitching just 62.2 innings in 2013, due to an elbow injury, Wandy Rodriguez wisely exercised his $13 million option for 2014.  He appears to be on track to start the 2014 season healthy, but the team will monitor his progress closely.

Should any of the above starters falter, the Pirates have another young gun in Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings.  Blessed with a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve, Taillon could make the same kind of impact on the Pirates 2014 season as Cole did in 2013.

Overall, the Pirates could take a step back in 2014, due to the holes in the rotation and at first base, but with the uncanny ability to get the most out of their pitching retreads and the top rated minor league system, according to Baseball America, they will not fall far and should remain a contender for years to come.

Cincinnati Reds offseason moves and outlook

After running away with the division title in 2012, the Reds took a couple steps back in 2013, finishing 3rd behind the Cardinals and Pirates.  Although they earned the second Wildcard spot, they were quickly dismissed by the Pirates in the one game playoff.

Key Losses

Shin-Soo Choo, Bronson Arroyo

Key Acquisitions

Jeff Francis, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena

The Reds lost their leadoff hitter and centerfielder, Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a 7-year deal with the Texas Rangers and will likely lose veteran innings-eater Bronson Arroyo as well.

Of the two, Choo will be the hardest to replace.  He finished second in the NL with an .423 OBP, behind teammate Joey Votto, and second in runs scored (107) to the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter.  He was one of the main reasons the Reds finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored.

Choo's replacement will likely be rookie speedster Billy Hamilton.  Hamilton was a September callup in 2013 and managed to steal 13 bases in just 13 games.  If he can get on base consistently, 100 stolen bases is not out of the question for him and he set the minor league record for stolen bases with 155 in 2012 to surpass the 145 stolen by Vince Coleman back in 1983.

His minor league numbers (.280/.350/.378) are eerily similar to those of Coleman (.280/.358/.343) and there are questions about his ability to hit after posting a feeble .256/.308/.343 line in AAA.  However, Coleman only hit .257/.323/.334 in his final minor league season before stealing 100 bases his first three years in the majors.

One things for sure, Hamilton has game-changing speed and he will be giving pitchers headaches for years to come.

Beyond Hamilton, the Reds are also hoping for a return to health for leftfielder Ryan Ludwick, who played in just 38 games in 2013.  Ludwick was a key cog in the Reds' offense in 2012, hitting .275 with 26 homers and 80 rbi's.

Ludwick and Hamilton will be joined in the lineup by perennial All-Star Joey Votto and slugger Jay Bruce, along with veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips and youngsters Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.

On the pitching side, Arroyo will likely be replaced in the starting rotation by Tony Cingrani, who filled in for the injured Johnny Cueto in 2013 and posted a sparkling 2.92 ERA in 104.2 innings.

Cingrani will be joined by holdovers Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Cueto in the rotation, with top prospect Robert Stephenson waiting in the wings in case of injury.

The Reds pitching staff allowed the 4th fewest runs in the NL in 2013 and with the strong starting rotation and with the "Cuban Missile" Arolodis Chapman closing, the Reds will once again have a strong pitching staff.

Overall, the Reds still have the look of contenders in 2014 and should battle the Pirates and Cardinals for the 2014 NL Central crown. 

Peter Bourjos vs Jon Jay: Who is the Cardinals starting center fielder?

For those of you, like me, already penciling in Peter Bourjos as the Cardinals starting center fielder for 2014, Jon Jay is saying "not so fast".

According to Jennifer Langosch, Jay is expecting to compete with Bourjos for the starting center field job this Spring.  The article also indicates that the Cardinals have not promised Bourjos all the playing time, although you would think the Cards wouldn't have traded David Freese for a bench player.

So, it appears that we have ourselves a Spring training battle shaping up between Jay and Bourjos.  Let's see how these two stack up:

Offense

Overall, I would have to give the edge on offense to Jay.  He has a better career batting average than Bourjos (.293 to .251), gets on base better (.356 OBP to .306 OBP for Bourjos) and has an edge in OPS+ (109 to 98).

However, in his defense, Bourjos has been banged up most of his career.  In his one full season in 2011, he put up a line of .271/.327/.438.  His OPS+ of 116 for that season is better than any single season put up by Jay, who's best was 113 in 2012.

In addition, Bourjos has better overall speed that Jay.  For his career, Bourjos has stolen 41 bases compared to 37 for Jay, in 184 fewer games.  Also, Bourjos has a little more pop that Jay, with an isolated power of .146 for his career, compared to .108 for Jay.  Bourjos has 24 homers compared to 25 for Jay, again in much fewer games (and at bats).

So, even though I give the edge to Jay, mainly because of his ability to hit for average and get on base, the margin of victory is not very big.

Defense

Here is where Bourjos really sets himself apart.  All fielding metrics you look at show Bourjos as being far better defensively than Jay.

Bourjos has a .990 fielding percent compared to .988 for Jay (center field only).

Bourjos has a 2.74 Range Factor per 9 inning (RF/9) compared to 2.56 for Jay.

Bourjos has a defensive WAR (dWAR) of 4.2 for his career compared to -0.5 for Jay.

Bourjos has an Ultimate Zone Rating (UZR) of 40.1 for his career compared to -7.3 for Jay.

Overall, Bourjos just blows Jay away as far as defense goes, which is primarily the reason that the Cardinals acquired him.  With him in center and Kolten Wong at second, the Cards defense will get a major boost in 2014.

Conclusion

Even though it appears that there will be a competition for the center field job, the job is really Bourjos' to lose.  Assuming he's healthy (and stays healthy), Bourjos should be the Cardinals starting center fielder on opening day and for the majority of the season.

Projecting the Cardinals future lineups

According to GM John Mozeliak, the Cardinals are likely finished with their offseason moves, meaning that, besides adding some minor league depth, the Cards roster is pretty much set.

Thus, as I did with the starting rotation a little while ago, its time to look at the projected Cardinals lineups not only for 2014 but for future years as well.

In case you missed it, as I had just started up this blog at the time, I did a similar exercise last year, which can be found HERE.  

Its always interesting to see how my projections look a year after they are made.  The main restriction I put on myself is to assume that all openings will be filled in-house (i.e. no free agents or trades), thereby relying only on the Cardinals farm system to fill holes, which, as we have seen this offseason, is not always the case.

Thus, last year, I showed 2013 free agents Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran being replaced by Pete Kozma and Oscar Taveras in 2014 and then 2015 free agent David Freese being replaced by Kolten Wong with Matt Carpenter moving over to third.

However, this year, with the likely starters all locked up through at least the 2016 season, taking the above approach would be pretty boring, thus, I decided to shake things up a bit by assuming some possible trades and free agent signings.

In any case, here's how I see things shaking out over the next few years:

2014

As I alluded to before, the 2014 lineup is set, its just a matter of figuring out the batting order.  I think Mike Matheny will make new addition Peter Bourjos the leadoff hitter, followed by Matt Carpenter.  However, I'm not entirely sold on Bourjos as a leadoff man, given his career .306 OBP and I can see Carpenter returning to the leadoff spot with Jhonny Peralta hitting second.

From there, Matt Holliday will likely stay in his familiar 3rd spot with Allen Craig hitting 4th.  Then Yadier Molina and Matt Adams following, with perhaps Adams moving down further against some lefties.  That leaves Bourjos and Kolten Wong bringing up the rear.

Thus, here is my projected 2014 lineup:

1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. pitcher

2015

At some point in the 2014 season or before the 2015 season begins, the Cardinals are going to have to make a big decision.  Oscar Taveras will likely be ready to assume a full-time outfield role with the team and the Cards already have too many outfielders.

Jon Jay will likely have already been traded by the July 2014 trade deadline, but that still leaves the Cardinals with Holliday, Craig, Bourjos, Adams and Taveras to fill 4 spots (including first) and that's not even considering the Cards other top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty.  I could see the team possibly trading Holliday, who will be 35 at this time, to free up some salary and to replenish their farm system.

Holliday is owed $17 million a year through 2016, with an $17 million option for 2017 that carries a $1 million buyout.  Thus, trading him at this time would save the team $35 million.  Allen Craig is another trade possibility, but he's younger and under a more reasonable contract, thereby making Holliday the more appealing option.

Thus, here is how I see the 2015 lineup panning out:

1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. pitcher

2016

Again, there would be no free agents to worry about at this time, so it comes down to whether the Cardinals feel a trade or free agent signing make sense.

My main concern around this time would be Peralta's defense at short.  He will turn 34 during the 2016 season and will likely have lost a step or two on defense.  Thus, it might make sense for the Cards to pursue a free agent shortstop.

Yunel Escobar will be a free agent after the 2015 season and could be a good fit for the Cardinals.  While he is an average hitter, he has proven to be an above average fielder in his career and would give the team's defense a boost.

Of course, if the team signs Escobar, that leaves Peralta without a position.  He could become trade bait or a super utility player, but in either case he will be out of the starting lineup.

Also, by this time, I would think that Wong will have established himself as a good major league hitter and capable leadoff man, thereby allowing Carpenter to bat second, thus giving us the following lineup:

1. Kolten Wong, 2B
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Yunel Escobar, SS
9. pitcher

2017

Finally, a free agent!  After the 2016 season, Peter Bourjos will likely leave via free agency.  Waiting in the wings could be James Ramsey, who will have likely served a long apprenticeship, beginning in 2015 as a 4th outfielder.

Other than that, it will be more of the status quo for the team, giving us the following lineup:

1. Kolten Wong, 2B
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Yunel Escobar, SS
8. James Ramsey, CF
9. pitcher

Overall, the Cardinals are setup pretty well for the future and do not have to make any moves in the foreseeable future.  There are some tweaks they can make along the way to avoid being stuck with a large contract for an aging veteran (i.e. Holliday) or having to make due with an aging veteran at a key position (Peralta).

However, the team is certainly set up for long-term success and, if they continue to develop players as they have recently, that success will continue.

Johnny Peralta signing sets the Cardinals lineup. But what about their bench?

With the signing of Johnny Peralta, the Cardinals starting lineup is set for 2014.  As of right now, the 2014 lineup would look like this:

C - Yadier Molina (Right handed)
1B - Matt Adams (Left handed)
2B - Kolten Wong (L)
SS - Johnny Peralta (R)
3B - Matt Carpenter (L)
LF - Matt Holliday (R)
CF - Peter Bourjos (R)
RF - Allen Craig (R)

Jon Jay (L) will be relegated to the bench and Oscar Taveras (L) will likely start the season in AAA.  However, once Taveras is ready its likely that the Cardinals will trade Jay to make room for him.

With Daniel Descalso (L) likely acting as utility infielder and Tony Cruz (or some other seldom used catcher) acting as Molina's backup, the Cardinals will still have two spots to fill on their bench.

Shane Robinson (R) could fill one spot, as the 4th or 5th outfielder, but the Cardinals could use a right handed hitter for their bench, particularly one who can play the infield (2B, 3B and 1B), as they've got an abundance of lefty-hitting infielders.

Pouring over the options, I think the Cardinals should pursue Jeff Baker.

Not only is he capable of playing 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner outfield spots, but he kills lefties.  For his career, he has hit .298/.353/.522 against left handers, including 35 homers in 751 at bats.  Plus, even though he is 32, he showed no signs of slowing down in 2013, hitting .297/.390/.653 including 10 homers in 101 at bats against lefties.

He would be the perfect compliment to a primarily left handed infield and would basically fill the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to fill last year.

Cardinals buy low (and sell low) in David Freese trade

After a couple of days of talking, the Cardinals and Angels finally agreed to a trade yesterday sending David Freese and Fernando Salas to the Angels for Peter Bourjos and prospect Randal Grichuk.

When I first heard the news, I wasn't too thrilled with the idea.  First, Freese, who hits lefties pretty well, could provide the Cardinals with a platoon option for Kolten Wong.  Second, what do the Cardinals need with another outfielder? 

However, the more I looked into Bourjos' stats, the more I liked him.  He is generally considered one of the best center fielders in baseball.  Per Fangraphs, his 20.2 UZR/150 since 2010 is the highest in all of baseball during that time.

In addition, his platoon splits do not scream part-time player (like Freese's do).  For his career, he has a .706 OPS against lefties and a .703 OPS against righties.  You can't get much closer than that. 

Granted, Freese has a career .783 OPS and is arguably the better hitter than Bourjos, but Bourjos' defense more than makes up for it.  During his career, Freese has a cumulative WAR of 8.2, however, Bourjos' career WAR is 9.0 in 619 fewer at bats.

Bourjos will take over center field for Jon Jay and Wong will take Freese's spot in the lineup, playing second while Matt Carpenter moves over his natural third base position.  Thus, not only will the center field defense improve, but the infield defense should as well.

The only drawback I can see is that there is now no spot for Oscar Taveras, as some had suggested he could take over center for Jay.  However, Taveras has to prove himself healthy next season, after missing significant time with an ankle injury.  Once he does, the Cardinals will find a spot for him.

Finally, I haven't even talked about the other piece the Cardinals got, Grichuk.  Grichuk ranked 6th among the Angels top prospects prior to the 2013 season, according to Baseball America.  Grichuk had 22 homers in AA last season, but hit only .256.  In general, he shows above average power, but is a bit of a free-swinger.

Overall, the general consensus is that it was a good deal for the Cardinals and I see no reason to disagree.

Latest Trade Rumors: Cardinals actively looking to trade David Freese and Rangers' shortstops may no longer be an option

Things are heating up on the David Freese front while Texas' trade of Ian Kinsler has many wondering where the Cardinals will find a shortstop, as the Hot Stove Heats up.

David Freese

Reports surfaced yesterday that the Cardinals were talking to the Angels about a possible David Freese trade (first reported by Ken Rosenthal via Twitter).  Rosenthal further reported that the Cardinals were looking for outfield depth and that the sides were still in the "discussion phase".  The Angels have young outfielders, such as Peter Bourjos, J.B. Shuck and Kole Calhoun that could interest the Cards.

I find it somewhat puzzling that the Cardinals would be looking for additional outfielders, when the have some talented youngsters of their own, such as Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty and even Mike O'Neill waiting in the wings.

Perhaps its an indication that the Cardinals may be looking to move someone like Matt Adams or Jon Jay in another trade to acquire a shortstop.

In any case, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicated that the Cardinals would not trade Freese for Bourjos straight up and that some more pieces need to be involved, but they are still working on it.

Update:  The Cardinals have traded Freese and Fernando Salas for the Angles' Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk.  I will post details later...

Shortstop

The Cardinals search for a shortstop hit an unexpected roadblock this week when the Rangers traded second baseman Ian Kinsler to Detroit for Prince Fielder.  Although Ken Rosenthal indicated that the Rangers are still open to trading either Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, it seems less likely now.

With Andrus and Profar off the table, Bernie Miklasz breaks down the other options for the Cards, with J.J. Hardy listed as his "best fit".

While Hardy won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove last year, it appears that he has his drawbacks as well.  For one thing, he is only signed through the 2014 season and it appears that the Orioles asking price (Shelby Miller) is pretty high.

I, for one, do not want to give up Miller for a one-year rental, however, as Miklasz points out, there doesn't appear to be a lot of other great options.

Perhaps the Cardinals can find some way to pry Erick Aybar away from the Angels while they are working on the Freese trade or perhaps the Rangers might be more willing to trade Andrus or Profar if the Cardinals include Kolten Wong (to replace Kinsler at second).  However, that won't happen if the Cards trade Freese.

In any case, it looks like Freese could be on the move soon and we might have to wait a while before the shortstop position is filled.

Why Elvis Andrus is my pick to be the next Cardinals shortstop.

Ever since Cardinals GM John Mozeliak stated that he was willing to trade young pitching for a young controllable shortstop, the rumors have been flying as to who the Cards might acquire.  There's been speculation regarding Troy Tulowitzki, Jed Lowrie, J.J. Hardy, Stephen Drew and, of course, Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar of the Rangers.

After careful consideration of all of the alternatives, I think that Elvis Andrus of the Rangers would be the best fit for the Cardinals.

Here's why:

He's young and controllable

First off, Andrus meets Mozeliak's own criteria of being "young and controllable".  Andrus is only 25 year's old and is signed through 2022 (although he can opt out of his contract after 2018 or 2019).  Sure, his contract is not cheap--he will make $6.475 million in 2014 and $15 million a year through 2018, but the Cardinals have the money to afford him.

He's available

The Rangers have said that they are willing to trade one of the middle infielders (Andrus, Profar or Ian Kinsler).  Trading Andrus probably makes the most sense for them, as it would help them shed salary while opening up a spot for Profar.

He can hit lefites

As I pointed out in a previous article, the Cardinals need to improve their lineup against lefties and Andrus would do just that.  For his career, Andrus has hit .273/.346/.352 against lefties and .275/.337/.347 against righties.  Pretty even splits.

He's got speed

One thing the Cardinals offense lacked last season was speed.  The Detroit Tigers were the only team in baseball with fewer stolen bases than the Cardinals 45 (the Tigers had 35).  Andrus nearly matched the Cardinals total by himself, with 42 stolen bases in 2013.  He would fit nicely atop the Cardinals lineup along with Matt Carpenter. 

But, what about the other candidates?  How do they stack up?

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo is 29 years old and signed through 2020.  He is set to make $16 million in 2014 and then $20 million a year through 2019 before dropping back down to $14 million in 2020.  While a better all around hitter than Andrus and at least comparable defensively, the downside to him is his injury history and availability.

In his career, Tulowitzki has only appeared in over 150 games twice in 7 seasons.  Andrus has averaged over 150 games a year in his 5 seasons. 

In addition, Tulo does not appear to be on the block.  That's not to say the Rockies wouldn't trade him, but the Cardinals would likely have to overpay to get him (one so-called expert suggested Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal AND Allen Craig, i.e. NOT GONNA HAPPEN).

Jed Lowrie

Lowrie is 29 but is signed only through the 2014 season.  This is probably his biggest drawback, as, not only would the Cardinals have to give up some prospects for him, but then they would risk losing him after only one season.

That said, the asking price for him would probably be lower, but there has been no indication that the A's are willing to trade him in the first place.

J.J. Hardy

The Orioles reportedly offered the Cardinals Hardy for Shelby Miller, which the Cards quickly turned down.  Hardy is already 31 years old and is only signed through 2014, so, like Lowrie, there is a risk that the Cardinals could be back in this same predicament after the 2014 season, only down a prospect or two.

Not a very appealing option.

Stephen Drew

Drew, a free agent, wouldn't cost the Cardinals any young arms, just money.  However, he will be 31 to start the 2014 season and to get him the Cards would probably have to sign him to at least a 4-5 year deal.

The biggest drawback for Drew is his inability to hit lefties.  He hit just .196/.246/.340 against lefties in 2013 and just .235/.291/.390 for his career.  In fact, since 2010, he has gotten progressively worse in his splits against lefties, going from a .255 average in 2010, to .224 in 2011, .198 in 2012 and .196 in 2013.

Jurickson Profar


Of all of the other candidates, Profar would probably be my second choice.  At 20, he is younger and cheaper than Andrus, and would be under team control for another 5 years (if my math is right).  However, he has yet to prove himself at the major league level and yet would probably cost more in a trade than Andrus, mainly because of his salary and high upside.

So, given all of the above, I would like to see Mozeliak make a big push for Andrus.  It may take a package of Shelby Miller and Matt Adams to acquire him, but I think it would be worth it.  If the price goes significantly beyond that, then Mo should turn to Plan "B" (whatever that is).

What are your thoughts?  Who would you like to see the Cardinals go after?  I will post a poll on the homepage and you can discuss your choice in the comments section.

How can the Cardinals improve their lineup against lefthanders?

Its no secret that the Cardinals struggled against left handed pitchers in 2013.  As a team, the Cards hit just .238/.301/.371 against southpaws and their .672 OPS against lefties was 13th in the NL.  This was highlighted even more in the postseason, when the Cards hit a combined .211/.268/.295 (.563 OPS) against lefties, including two losses in the World Series against Jon Lester, who allowed only 1 run against the Cardinals in 15.1 innings.

Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties.  Here are my suggestions for doing just that:

1.  Hold on to David Freese

The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers.  With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).

However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.

They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench.  Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.

He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.

2.  Find a better shortstop

This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on.  The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.

Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team.  If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.

The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.

Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:

I	Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	vs RHP as RHB	.275	.337	.347	.684
	vs LHP as RHB	.273	.346	.352	.698

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/13/2013.
 

You cannot get much more consistent than that.

3.  Add a righthanded OF to the bench

Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013.  The other was Jon Jay.

Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties.  Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties.  However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.

Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).

Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.

Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill.  Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay. 

All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch.  In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap.  Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries.  Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.

Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.  


With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:

Lineup vs Righties

1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Jon Jay, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B

     Bench

• David Freese
• Rajai Davis
• Daniel Descalso
• Shane Robinson
• Tony Cruz

Lineup vs Lefties

1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Matt Carpenter, 2B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Matt Adams, 1B
8. Rajai Davis, CF

    Bench

• Kolten Wong
• Jon Jay
• Daniel Descalso
• Shane Robinson
• Tony Cruz

While not perfect (Adams only hit .231 against lefties in 2013), its still an improvement over the 2013 lineup and would give the Cardinals a more balanced team against both lefties and righties.

Questions abound as Hot Stove League heats up for Cardinals

With the lackluster finish to the 2013 World Series, at least as far as Cardinals fans are concerned, everyone's attention now turns to the Hot Stove League.

The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal.  Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:

1.  Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?

Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.

The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.

It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.

2.  Who will man the outfield and first base?

Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base.  The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen.  If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.

There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.

Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).

3.  What should the Cardinals do about second and third?

This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.

Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.

However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.

4.  What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?

This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog.  With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.

This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short. 

In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.

5.  Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?

The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring.  However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.

While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade. 

The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.

The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.

I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta.  So, there are options out there.

Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.