Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar rumors persist. Does it make sense?

It seems like a day cannot go by without someone bringing up the possibility of a Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar trade.  The latest coming from former GM Jim Bowden on ESPN Insider (subscription required), who labels it as a "challenge" trade--one that could define the GM's careers.

Of the face of it, the trade seems to make sense.  Profar is generally consider the top prospect in baseball, but is blocked at the major league level by Elvis Andrus.  Taveras is considered the 3rd best prospect in baseball, but is blocked by a loaded Cardinals outfield.

The Cardinals need a long-term solution at short, where shortstop Pete Kozma has done admirably in his short tenure, but there is skepticism as to whether he can keep it up. On the other hand, the Rangers need a replacement for Nelson Cruz, who will be a free agent after this season. 

One concern for the Cardinals is that Carlos Beltran will be a free agent after this season and Taveras is seen as the heir apparent in right field.  But they have other options there as well, such as putting Matt Adams at first and shifting Allen Craig back to right field.

For Texas, the Rangers could move Profar to second and shift Ian Kinsler to first to make room for their talented prospect.  But that would still leave a hole in the outfield should Cruz walk.

So, a trade of Profar for Taveras makes perfect sense.  Except there's one problem:  Bowden thinks that Taveras is the better prospect and that the trade would be a win for the Rangers.

By all appearances, the Rangers are setting up Profar as trade bait.  They just signed Andrus to a 8-year, $120 million extension and despite this, they keep playing Profar at short.  Why would they do this if they do not intend to play him there at the major league level?  Simple answer, to make him more attractive to other teams.

In addition, many people, including Bowden, project Taveras to be a consistent .300 hitter with 20-30 HR power in the majors.  He has a career minor league line of .323/.382/.525.  While some scouts feel that Profar can develop into a .300 hitter with 30 HR power, he has yet to show it in the minors, with a career line of .276/.368/.447 in the minors and a season high of just 14 homers.

So, if I was Cardinals GM John Mozeliak and Rangers GM Jon Daniels called to offer me Profar for Taveras.  I politely tell him no and go about my business.

Cardinals must weigh all options when it comes to Adam Wainwright

First of all, let me say this:  I think the Cardinals will sign Adam Wainwright to an extension and it will likely happen before the start of the 2013 season.  However, I also thought the same thing regarding Albert Pujols.  In fact, I was almost certain the Cardinals and Pujols would come to terms, right up to the point that he signed with the Angles.

I've already taken a look at some of the factors the Cardinals must weigh regarding a possible extension with Wainwright.  So, in the interest of covering all the bases, let's take a look at the Cardinals other options:

Free Agency

If the Cardinals cannot reach an agreement with Wainwright, the most obvious choice they have is to let Adam become a free agent after the 2013 season.  If this were to happen, its likely that the Cards will make Wainwright a qualifying offer, so that they can at least receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere. 

The Cardinals can then let the market determine his price and see if they want to match it.  However, the Cards will have lost their leverage as the only team that can negotiate with him and, as we have seen with Pujols, there is no guarantee that he will resign with the Cardinals. 

This is probably a no-win situation for the Cards as they will either have to pay market rate (or higher, if a team like the Yankees gets involved) in order to keep Wainwright or they will just receive a sandwich pick after the first round of the 2014 draft as compensation.

Trade

As far-fetched as it may seem, trading Wainwright could be the Cardinals best option (short of signing him to an extension, of course).

Despite the fact that teams who acquire a player from another team during a season will not be given draft pick compensation for losing that player to free agency after the season, it did not appear to affect the trade market significantly in 2012.  The Brewers traded Zack Greinke to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena, who were ranked as the Angels #2, #4 and #9 prospects by Baseball America prior to the season.

Wainwright should be able to fetch a similar package of prospects in return and there are probably two scenarios in which the Cardinals would be likely to trade Wainwright:  (1) they enter July more than 10 games back in the Wild Card standings, or, more likely, (2) Rafael Furcal has suffered a season-ending injury and the tandem of Ryan Jackson and Pete Kozma just isn't cutting it at short.

If the Cardinals are desperate for an upgrade at short and they figure they're going to lose Wainwright after the season anyway, why not trade him to a team looking for pitching for a long-term solution at short.  I suggested in a previous article that the Rangers and Cards could possibly match up in a pitching-for-shortstop trade.  While a package like Lance Lynn and someone like Michael Wacha might not be enough to land uber-prospect Jurickson Profar, surely Wainwright would at least net them Profar in return (if not more).


With the loss of Chris Carpenter and the health concerns of Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals will likely do everything they can to lock up Wainwright long-term.  However, if the price gets too high, the Cardinals will have to at least consider the possibility of trading Wainwright at mid-season.

Cardinals still looking for heir to Ozzie Smith's throne

Ozzie Smith retired from baseball in 1996 after 15 seasons with the Cardinals.  During that time, he won 11 Gold Gloves and was voted to the All Star Team 14 years.

In the 16 years since his retirement, the Cardinals have had 6 different shortstops (Royce Clayton, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan and Rafael Furcal) and, other than Edgar Renteria's 6 years, none has spent more than 3 years at the helm.

I understand that in this day and age, it is difficult to develop and retain a player.  Renteria, the best of the bunch, left the Cardinals for greener pastures after the 2004 season.  Whereas the other players were either traded (Clayton, Ryan) or allowed to leave via free agency (Izturis, Eckstein) and chances are Furcal will join the latter group.

The cheapest way for the Cardinals to find an heir to Ozzie's throne would be via the draft, whereas the Cards can control the rights of the player for several years at a below market rate.  However, the Cardinals have already tried this route twice, drafting Tyler Greene in the first round (30th overall) in the 2005 draft and selecting Pete Kozma 18th overall in the 2007 draft.

Greene never panned out for the Cards, hitting .218/.295/.329 in 495 at bats over 4 years before being traded to the Astros.  Kozma doesn't look much better, despite his strong September and postseason, as his .236/.308/.344 career line in the minors hints that his performance was a small sample size fluke.

So, with Furcal likely gone after this season, where can the Cardinals turn to fill the gap?

One option is free agency.  However, a quick look at the potential free agent list for 2014 reveals a bunch of players on the wrong side of 30.  Yeah, you could take a chance on someone like Yunel Escobar or Stephen Drew, but they are not a long-term solution.

The best bet is to trade for a young, major league ready shortstop.  This is where the Texas Rangers come in.  The Rangers have two young shortstops in Elvis Andrus and top prospect Jurickson Profar and it seems likely that they would move one of the two to fill a hole elsewhere.

One such hole is starting pitching.  The Rangers have been searching for starting pitching all offseason, pursuing the likes of Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, before they signed elsewhere, and recent reports indicate that the Rangers are looking more at trades than free agency to improve their team at this point.

The Cardinals have an abundance of young pitching that they could offer, including Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha.   It seems, on paper at least, that the two sides could work something out.

However, despite Buster Olney's speculation that the Rangers would likely trade Andrus this offseason, the Diamondbacks tried unsuccessfully to land either Andrus or Profar for Justin Upton, before settling for Didi Gregorious in a 3 team trade involving their top pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer.

So, could the Cardinals pry either one away from the Rangers?  Probably, but it will be costly.  I'm guessing it would take at least Lynn and one of the other 4 youngsters to land Andrus.  Profar may be a little cheaper in terms of prospects, as he is as still unproven, but he is generally considered the top prospect in the game and would still likely require two young pitchers in return.

A trade like that would put a big dent in the Cards pitching depth.  But, if it fills the Cardinals hole at short for the next 10 years, it would be worth it.