Well, as often happens with 3 kids and a demanding job, life got in the way of blogging the last couple weeks, so let's all catch up on what's happened during that time.
First, the Cardinals finalized their opening day roster, with the Spring Training Battles being decided, as follows:
5th Starter
Despite having a superior spring, Carlos Martinez was relegated to the bullpen, where his power arm was more desperately needed. Joe Kelly "won" the 5th starter job, more on last season's performance than this spring's results, which is probably how it should be.
Bench
Thanks in part to an injury to Mark Ellis, both Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma made the opening day roster, along with 4th outfielder Shane Robinson.
One of Descalso or Kozma will have to go when Ellis is healthy and, if the recent trade rumors are any indication, it will probably be Kozma.
As for Robinson, he's likely just keeping the seat warm until Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty or even Mike O'Neill is deemed ready to take over the 4th outfield spot.
Bullpen
The battle for the last bullpen slot came down to Jorge Rondon and Keith Butler, with Butler winning the job. However, with Jason Motte expected back in early May, it will be interesting to see what the Cards do.
Will they send Martinez down to stretch him back out as a starter or will they keep him in the pen and jettison Butler? My hope is that Martinez will be sent down, but the team may keep him up out of necessity, as it already appears that Mike Matheny has few relievers he trusts in the pen.
The Season so Far
With the roster set, the Cardinals have faced the Reds and Pirates in their first 6 games and come out of the road trip with a 3-3 record. They return home to face the Reds and Cubs this week.
While not a bad road trip, the lack of offense so far is a little bit of a concern. The Cardinals have scored only 17 runs in those 6 games, including 4 games where they have scored two runs or less. Hopefully their bats will warm up with the weather.
Overall, not a bad start, but not great either. Hopefully the Cardinals can make some noise on this 6-game home stand and carry the momentum going forward.
Showing posts with label Pete Kozma. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pete Kozma. Show all posts
Sunday, April 6, 2014
Sunday, March 23, 2014
Cardinals Spring Training Battle #3: The Bench
With the start of the season only 8 days away, its time to look at the final Spring Training Battle for the Cardinals--the bench.
The Cards recently announced that Kolten Wong had beaten out Mark Ellis for the starting second base job, which means that the starting lineup is pretty much set, if not the batting order.
Here's how the team lines up:
Catcher - Yadier Molina
First Base - Matt Adams
Second - Kolten Wong
Shortstop - Jhonny Peralta
Third - Matt Carpenter
Leftfield - Matt Holliday
Center - Peter Bourjos
Rightfield - Allen Craig
Ellis and Jon Jay are likely guaranteed a spot on the bench along with Tony Cruz at backup catcher. That leaves just 2 spots open on the bench.
The leading contenders are Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma, Randal Grichuk and Shane Robinson. Its likely that the Cards will keep one more outfielder and one more infielder.
Here's a look at each contender:
Pete Kozma
The main advantage for Kozma is that he is the best shortstop on the team defensively. If the Cardinals feel they need a defensive replacement for Peralta late in games, then Kozma may be the man. However, with trade rumors already swirling around him, it appears that the Cards are ready to part ways with Kozma.
Daniel Descalso
Descalso may have an edge in the infield battle as he can play second, short and third and is a better hitter than Kozma. However, with a career .243 average and .655 OPS, he should not feel too comfortable. Aledmys Diaz is waiting in the wings in the minors and, as soon as he proves himself ready, he could easily fill Descalso's role, but with an higher offensive upside.
Shane Robinson
Robinson was the Cardinals 5th outfielder last year and hit .250/.345/.319 in just 144 at bats. He is versatile, playing 26 games in left, 27 in center and 34 in right, but with a career .246 average and .644 OPS, his hitting leaves much to be desired. If the Cardinals value his defense and versatility, he will likely make the team. However, if they are looking for a little more pop off the bench, they may go in another direction.
Randal Grichuk
Acquired from the Angels in the David Freese trade, Grichuk is also capable of playing all 3 outfield positions. In addition, he has a bit more pop than Robinson. Robinson had only 22 homers in his minor league career, while Grichuk hit 22 homers last year alone and has 61 for his career.
Again, whoever wins the job may be there only temporarily as the Cardinals will likely promote top prospect Oscar Taveras, when the deem him ready.
Prediction
The Cardinals will probably go with Descalso and Grichuk to start the season. But look for Diaz and Taveras around mid-season.
The Cards recently announced that Kolten Wong had beaten out Mark Ellis for the starting second base job, which means that the starting lineup is pretty much set, if not the batting order.
Here's how the team lines up:
Catcher - Yadier Molina
First Base - Matt Adams
Second - Kolten Wong
Shortstop - Jhonny Peralta
Third - Matt Carpenter
Leftfield - Matt Holliday
Center - Peter Bourjos
Rightfield - Allen Craig
Ellis and Jon Jay are likely guaranteed a spot on the bench along with Tony Cruz at backup catcher. That leaves just 2 spots open on the bench.
The leading contenders are Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma, Randal Grichuk and Shane Robinson. Its likely that the Cards will keep one more outfielder and one more infielder.
Here's a look at each contender:
Pete Kozma
The main advantage for Kozma is that he is the best shortstop on the team defensively. If the Cardinals feel they need a defensive replacement for Peralta late in games, then Kozma may be the man. However, with trade rumors already swirling around him, it appears that the Cards are ready to part ways with Kozma.
Daniel Descalso
Descalso may have an edge in the infield battle as he can play second, short and third and is a better hitter than Kozma. However, with a career .243 average and .655 OPS, he should not feel too comfortable. Aledmys Diaz is waiting in the wings in the minors and, as soon as he proves himself ready, he could easily fill Descalso's role, but with an higher offensive upside.
Shane Robinson
Robinson was the Cardinals 5th outfielder last year and hit .250/.345/.319 in just 144 at bats. He is versatile, playing 26 games in left, 27 in center and 34 in right, but with a career .246 average and .644 OPS, his hitting leaves much to be desired. If the Cardinals value his defense and versatility, he will likely make the team. However, if they are looking for a little more pop off the bench, they may go in another direction.
Randal Grichuk
Acquired from the Angels in the David Freese trade, Grichuk is also capable of playing all 3 outfield positions. In addition, he has a bit more pop than Robinson. Robinson had only 22 homers in his minor league career, while Grichuk hit 22 homers last year alone and has 61 for his career.
Again, whoever wins the job may be there only temporarily as the Cardinals will likely promote top prospect Oscar Taveras, when the deem him ready.
Prediction
The Cardinals will probably go with Descalso and Grichuk to start the season. But look for Diaz and Taveras around mid-season.
Thursday, March 20, 2014
Bird's Eye View: Cardinals Season Preview
Each year, a group of us Cardinals bloggers puts together a newsletter that is e-mailed out before each series. The bloggers take turns writing the newsletter, so you get a different style and viewpoint each time.
This year, we put together a season preview as well. I did the writeup on the infield, while other bloggers discussed the lineup, outfield, bench, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, manager and front office.
Here's a sneak peak at my section:
This year, we put together a season preview as well. I did the writeup on the infield, while other bloggers discussed the lineup, outfield, bench, defense, starting pitching, bullpen, manager and front office.
Here's a sneak peak at my section:
The Cardinals infield underwent some significant changes over the
winter, as the team looked to shore up its defense while also improving
the offensive production from the shortstop position. Here’s a
position-by-position look at the Cards 2014 infield.
First Base
With the free agency
departure of Carlos Beltran, Allen Craig moves to right field to replace
him and Matt Adams steps into a full-time role at first base. After
hitting .284 with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, Cardinals fans are
excited to see what numbers Adams can put up in a full season.
Second Base
The departure of David
Freese caused the biggest shake-up, allowing Matt Carpenter to move to
his natural third base position and opening the door for rookie Kolten
Wong at second. Wong didn’t hit much in his limited exposure to big
league pitching last season (.153 in 59 at bats), but is a career
.301/.365/.446 hitter in the minors.
Third Base
Matt Carpenter takes
over at third for the departed Freese. He hit .318/.392/.481 and
finished 4th in the MVP voting last season. His shift to third and the
addition of Wong at second should greatly improve the Cardinals’ defense
at those positions.
Shortstop
Obviously displeased with
the offensive production they received from the shortstop position in
2013, which finished 13th in the league in OPS (.583), the Cardinals
quickly addressed that issue in the offseason by signing Jhonny Peralta
to a 4-year, $53 million contract. While the Cards may lose a little
bit defensively over the displaced Pete Kozma, Peralta, and his career
.755 OPS, should make up for it offensively.
Utility
The Cardinals brought in
second baseman Mark Ellis as an insurance policy for rookie Kolten Wong
and holdovers Daniel Descalso and Pete Kozma should back up the other
positions. The X factor is recently signed Cuban defector Aledmys Diaz.
Capable of playing second, third or short, he could replace Descalso
or Kozma on the Cards bench when ready.
If you're interested in seeing the rest of the season preview as well as receiving the newsletter before each series, you can signup using the following link:
Thanks and Go Cards!
Sunday, March 9, 2014
Cardinals sign Aledmys Diaz. But where will he play?
According to Jennifer Langosch (and other) the Cardinals have signed infielder Aledmys Diaz to a major league deal. The team did not release details, but it is believed to be for 4 years.
This represents the biggest investment ever by the Cards in a Cuban player and while that is all fine and good, the first question I asked myself is where will he play?
According to scouts, Diaz is capable of playing second, third and short. However, the Cardinals currently have Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter and Jhonny Peralta manning those positions. Carpenter just received an extension from the Cards, which has him under team control through 2019. Peralta was signed as a free agent through the 2017 and Wong is under team control through 2019. So, there is no obvious spot for the young Cuban.
But there are some scenarios under which he could make an impact this season:
1. Kolten Wong struggles
This is Wong's first full season in the majors. He was a September callup last year and hit an uninspiring .153 in 59 at bats (small sample size rules apply). However, he is a career .301/.365/.446 hitter in the minors.
He could hit the ground running or he could struggle in his first extended taste of the bigs. If its the latter, look for Diaz to get the call.
2. Someone gets injured
Obviously, the addition of Diaz gives the Cardinals some much needed infield depth. Behind the starting 3, there is only Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma and Mark Ellis. Ellis has only really played second base in his career and while Descalso and Kozma can play short, neither is a very good hitter.
Diaz would give the Cards a decent hitting backup to Wong, Carpenter or Peralta, should they get injured and would not be as big of a downgrade as Kozma or Descalso would be.
3. Trade
The Cardinals could decide to jettison one of their infielders for an upgrade elsewhere. This doesn't seem likely though, as it appears that the Cards are committed to Carpenter, Peralta and Wong on the infield.
4. Utility Infielder
This seems to be the most likely scenario. With his ability to play 3 different positions, Diaz could become a better hitting version of Descalso. Despite hitting a meager .238 with a .656 OPS last season, Descalso still managed to play in 123 games last season "earning" 328 at bats. He played 39 games at second, 55 at short and 38 at third.
Diaz does not have a lot of pop, but he showed the ability to hit for average, batting .315/.404/.500 with 12 homers and 11 stolen bases in his last season in Cuba. In fact, Diaz' presence could spell the end of Descalso's career with the Cards.
My guess is that the Cardinals will start Diaz in the minors to get him accustomed to American baseball. Ones he proves himself, he will get called up to play a utility role. He could get significant playing time if there is an injury or Wong struggles, so I could see him getting around 300 at bats.
This represents the biggest investment ever by the Cards in a Cuban player and while that is all fine and good, the first question I asked myself is where will he play?
According to scouts, Diaz is capable of playing second, third and short. However, the Cardinals currently have Kolten Wong, Matt Carpenter and Jhonny Peralta manning those positions. Carpenter just received an extension from the Cards, which has him under team control through 2019. Peralta was signed as a free agent through the 2017 and Wong is under team control through 2019. So, there is no obvious spot for the young Cuban.
But there are some scenarios under which he could make an impact this season:
1. Kolten Wong struggles
This is Wong's first full season in the majors. He was a September callup last year and hit an uninspiring .153 in 59 at bats (small sample size rules apply). However, he is a career .301/.365/.446 hitter in the minors.
He could hit the ground running or he could struggle in his first extended taste of the bigs. If its the latter, look for Diaz to get the call.
2. Someone gets injured
Obviously, the addition of Diaz gives the Cardinals some much needed infield depth. Behind the starting 3, there is only Daniel Descalso, Pete Kozma and Mark Ellis. Ellis has only really played second base in his career and while Descalso and Kozma can play short, neither is a very good hitter.
Diaz would give the Cards a decent hitting backup to Wong, Carpenter or Peralta, should they get injured and would not be as big of a downgrade as Kozma or Descalso would be.
3. Trade
The Cardinals could decide to jettison one of their infielders for an upgrade elsewhere. This doesn't seem likely though, as it appears that the Cards are committed to Carpenter, Peralta and Wong on the infield.
4. Utility Infielder
This seems to be the most likely scenario. With his ability to play 3 different positions, Diaz could become a better hitting version of Descalso. Despite hitting a meager .238 with a .656 OPS last season, Descalso still managed to play in 123 games last season "earning" 328 at bats. He played 39 games at second, 55 at short and 38 at third.
Diaz does not have a lot of pop, but he showed the ability to hit for average, batting .315/.404/.500 with 12 homers and 11 stolen bases in his last season in Cuba. In fact, Diaz' presence could spell the end of Descalso's career with the Cards.
My guess is that the Cardinals will start Diaz in the minors to get him accustomed to American baseball. Ones he proves himself, he will get called up to play a utility role. He could get significant playing time if there is an injury or Wong struggles, so I could see him getting around 300 at bats.
Wednesday, November 20, 2013
Why Elvis Andrus is my pick to be the next Cardinals shortstop.
Ever since Cardinals GM John Mozeliak stated that he was willing to trade young pitching for a young controllable shortstop, the rumors have been flying as to who the Cards might acquire. There's been speculation regarding Troy Tulowitzki, Jed Lowrie, J.J. Hardy, Stephen Drew and, of course, Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar of the Rangers.
After careful consideration of all of the alternatives, I think that Elvis Andrus of the Rangers would be the best fit for the Cardinals.
Here's why:
He's young and controllable
First off, Andrus meets Mozeliak's own criteria of being "young and controllable". Andrus is only 25 year's old and is signed through 2022 (although he can opt out of his contract after 2018 or 2019). Sure, his contract is not cheap--he will make $6.475 million in 2014 and $15 million a year through 2018, but the Cardinals have the money to afford him.
He's available
The Rangers have said that they are willing to trade one of the middle infielders (Andrus, Profar or Ian Kinsler). Trading Andrus probably makes the most sense for them, as it would help them shed salary while opening up a spot for Profar.
He can hit lefites
As I pointed out in a previous article, the Cardinals need to improve their lineup against lefties and Andrus would do just that. For his career, Andrus has hit .273/.346/.352 against lefties and .275/.337/.347 against righties. Pretty even splits.
He's got speed
One thing the Cardinals offense lacked last season was speed. The Detroit Tigers were the only team in baseball with fewer stolen bases than the Cardinals 45 (the Tigers had 35). Andrus nearly matched the Cardinals total by himself, with 42 stolen bases in 2013. He would fit nicely atop the Cardinals lineup along with Matt Carpenter.
But, what about the other candidates? How do they stack up?
Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo is 29 years old and signed through 2020. He is set to make $16 million in 2014 and then $20 million a year through 2019 before dropping back down to $14 million in 2020. While a better all around hitter than Andrus and at least comparable defensively, the downside to him is his injury history and availability.
In his career, Tulowitzki has only appeared in over 150 games twice in 7 seasons. Andrus has averaged over 150 games a year in his 5 seasons.
In addition, Tulo does not appear to be on the block. That's not to say the Rockies wouldn't trade him, but the Cardinals would likely have to overpay to get him (one so-called expert suggested Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal AND Allen Craig, i.e. NOT GONNA HAPPEN).
Jed Lowrie
Lowrie is 29 but is signed only through the 2014 season. This is probably his biggest drawback, as, not only would the Cardinals have to give up some prospects for him, but then they would risk losing him after only one season.
That said, the asking price for him would probably be lower, but there has been no indication that the A's are willing to trade him in the first place.
J.J. Hardy
The Orioles reportedly offered the Cardinals Hardy for Shelby Miller, which the Cards quickly turned down. Hardy is already 31 years old and is only signed through 2014, so, like Lowrie, there is a risk that the Cardinals could be back in this same predicament after the 2014 season, only down a prospect or two.
Not a very appealing option.
Stephen Drew
Drew, a free agent, wouldn't cost the Cardinals any young arms, just money. However, he will be 31 to start the 2014 season and to get him the Cards would probably have to sign him to at least a 4-5 year deal.
The biggest drawback for Drew is his inability to hit lefties. He hit just .196/.246/.340 against lefties in 2013 and just .235/.291/.390 for his career. In fact, since 2010, he has gotten progressively worse in his splits against lefties, going from a .255 average in 2010, to .224 in 2011, .198 in 2012 and .196 in 2013.
Jurickson Profar
Of all of the other candidates, Profar would probably be my second choice. At 20, he is younger and cheaper than Andrus, and would be under team control for another 5 years (if my math is right). However, he has yet to prove himself at the major league level and yet would probably cost more in a trade than Andrus, mainly because of his salary and high upside.
So, given all of the above, I would like to see Mozeliak make a big push for Andrus. It may take a package of Shelby Miller and Matt Adams to acquire him, but I think it would be worth it. If the price goes significantly beyond that, then Mo should turn to Plan "B" (whatever that is).
What are your thoughts? Who would you like to see the Cardinals go after? I will post a poll on the homepage and you can discuss your choice in the comments section.
After careful consideration of all of the alternatives, I think that Elvis Andrus of the Rangers would be the best fit for the Cardinals.
Here's why:
He's young and controllable
First off, Andrus meets Mozeliak's own criteria of being "young and controllable". Andrus is only 25 year's old and is signed through 2022 (although he can opt out of his contract after 2018 or 2019). Sure, his contract is not cheap--he will make $6.475 million in 2014 and $15 million a year through 2018, but the Cardinals have the money to afford him.
He's available
The Rangers have said that they are willing to trade one of the middle infielders (Andrus, Profar or Ian Kinsler). Trading Andrus probably makes the most sense for them, as it would help them shed salary while opening up a spot for Profar.
He can hit lefites
As I pointed out in a previous article, the Cardinals need to improve their lineup against lefties and Andrus would do just that. For his career, Andrus has hit .273/.346/.352 against lefties and .275/.337/.347 against righties. Pretty even splits.
He's got speed
One thing the Cardinals offense lacked last season was speed. The Detroit Tigers were the only team in baseball with fewer stolen bases than the Cardinals 45 (the Tigers had 35). Andrus nearly matched the Cardinals total by himself, with 42 stolen bases in 2013. He would fit nicely atop the Cardinals lineup along with Matt Carpenter.
But, what about the other candidates? How do they stack up?
Troy Tulowitzki
Tulo is 29 years old and signed through 2020. He is set to make $16 million in 2014 and then $20 million a year through 2019 before dropping back down to $14 million in 2020. While a better all around hitter than Andrus and at least comparable defensively, the downside to him is his injury history and availability.
In his career, Tulowitzki has only appeared in over 150 games twice in 7 seasons. Andrus has averaged over 150 games a year in his 5 seasons.
In addition, Tulo does not appear to be on the block. That's not to say the Rockies wouldn't trade him, but the Cardinals would likely have to overpay to get him (one so-called expert suggested Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal AND Allen Craig, i.e. NOT GONNA HAPPEN).
Jed Lowrie
Lowrie is 29 but is signed only through the 2014 season. This is probably his biggest drawback, as, not only would the Cardinals have to give up some prospects for him, but then they would risk losing him after only one season.
That said, the asking price for him would probably be lower, but there has been no indication that the A's are willing to trade him in the first place.
J.J. Hardy
The Orioles reportedly offered the Cardinals Hardy for Shelby Miller, which the Cards quickly turned down. Hardy is already 31 years old and is only signed through 2014, so, like Lowrie, there is a risk that the Cardinals could be back in this same predicament after the 2014 season, only down a prospect or two.
Not a very appealing option.
Stephen Drew
Drew, a free agent, wouldn't cost the Cardinals any young arms, just money. However, he will be 31 to start the 2014 season and to get him the Cards would probably have to sign him to at least a 4-5 year deal.
The biggest drawback for Drew is his inability to hit lefties. He hit just .196/.246/.340 against lefties in 2013 and just .235/.291/.390 for his career. In fact, since 2010, he has gotten progressively worse in his splits against lefties, going from a .255 average in 2010, to .224 in 2011, .198 in 2012 and .196 in 2013.
Jurickson Profar
Of all of the other candidates, Profar would probably be my second choice. At 20, he is younger and cheaper than Andrus, and would be under team control for another 5 years (if my math is right). However, he has yet to prove himself at the major league level and yet would probably cost more in a trade than Andrus, mainly because of his salary and high upside.
So, given all of the above, I would like to see Mozeliak make a big push for Andrus. It may take a package of Shelby Miller and Matt Adams to acquire him, but I think it would be worth it. If the price goes significantly beyond that, then Mo should turn to Plan "B" (whatever that is).
What are your thoughts? Who would you like to see the Cardinals go after? I will post a poll on the homepage and you can discuss your choice in the comments section.
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
How can the Cardinals improve their lineup against lefthanders?
Its no secret that the Cardinals struggled against left handed pitchers in 2013. As a team, the Cards hit just .238/.301/.371 against southpaws and their .672 OPS against lefties was 13th in the NL. This was highlighted even more in the postseason, when the Cards hit a combined .211/.268/.295 (.563 OPS) against lefties, including two losses in the World Series against Jon Lester, who allowed only 1 run against the Cardinals in 15.1 innings.
Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties. Here are my suggestions for doing just that:
1. Hold on to David Freese
The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers. With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).
However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.
They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench. Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.
He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.
2. Find a better shortstop
This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on. The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.
Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team. If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.
The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.
Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:
You cannot get much more consistent than that.
3. Add a righthanded OF to the bench
Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013. The other was Jon Jay.
Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties. Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties. However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.
Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).
Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.
Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill. Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay.
All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch. In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap. Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries. Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.
Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.
With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:
Lineup vs Righties
Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties. Here are my suggestions for doing just that:
1. Hold on to David Freese
The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers. With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).
However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.
They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench. Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.
He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.
2. Find a better shortstop
This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on. The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.
Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team. If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.
The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.
Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:
| I | Split | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | .275 | .337 | .347 | .684 | |
| vs LHP as RHB | .273 | .346 | .352 | .698 |
3. Add a righthanded OF to the bench
Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013. The other was Jon Jay.
Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties. Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties. However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.
Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).
Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.
Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill. Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay.
All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch. In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap. Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries. Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.
Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.
With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:
Lineup vs Righties
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Jon Jay, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- David Freese
- Rajai Davis
- Daniel Descalso
- Shane Robinson
- Tony Cruz
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Rajai Davis, CF
- Kolten Wong
- Jon Jay
- Daniel Descalso
- Shane Robinson
- Tony Cruz
Tuesday, October 29, 2013
What have we learned so far from the 2013 World Series?
Thanks to FOX and the World Series, I have finally gotten a chance to regularly watch the Cardinals up here in Chicagoland.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Here is what I've learned about them, so far:
1. The Cardinals cannot hit left handers
With the exception of Craig Breslow, who gave up 3 runs (2 earned) in 0.1 innings in his lone appearance of the Series, the Cardinals have struggled against the Red Sox lefties.
Jon Lester has limited the Cardinals to just one run in 15.1 IP, to earn the win in games 1 and 5, while Felix Doubront has pitched 4.2 innings allowing just 1 run in two games, earning the win in game 4.
With right handers John Lackey and Jake Peavy scheduled to start games 6 and 7, if necessary, don't be surprised to see Doubront come out of the pen to spell Lackey, should he falter, and Lester may be an option for Sox manager John Farrell in game 7.
Bottom line, the Cardinals need to score some runs against these two righties early and often, because they might not get much of a chance after that.
2. The Cardinals should not pitch to David Ortiz EVER
Ortiz is hitting an incredible .733 for the series and is the likely MVP no matter the outcome. He has two homers and 6 rbis so far and has shown no signs of slowing up.
The Cardinals inexplicably pitched to Ortiz in the first inning last night with a base open and a runner in scoring position and he made them pay with an rbi double.
If the Cards do not throw another strike to Ortiz for the remainder of the series and still lose, I will be happy knowing that at least "Big Papi" didn't beat us (again).
3. Adam Wainwright is human
Cardinals ace, Adam Wainwright, has had a series to forget, allowing 8 runs (6 earned) in his two starts and earning the loss in both games.
Most of that damage came in game one, when Wainwright gave up 5 runs in the first two innings. He was much better last night, giving up just one run through 6 innings. However, he came unglued in the 7th, giving up two more runs and the Cardinals offense could not do anything against Lester, thus sealing their fate.
4. The Cardinals have been sloppy
Whether it be the errors by Pete Kozma that opened the flood gates in game one, the dropped pop up between Yadier Molina and Wainwright (also in game one) or the pick off of Kolten Wong to end game 4 (with Carlos Beltran at the plate), the Cardinals have been sloppy.
On the flip side, the Cardinals won game two due to a throwing error by catcher Jarrod Saltalamacchia and won game 3 thanks to an obstruction call.
Overall, it has kinda evened out, but it makes you wonder what might have been if Kozma had made that play in the first in game one. Would it have changed the outlook of the whole series?
5. Michael Wacha
All eyes will be on rookie Michael Wacha tomorrow night.
Wacha has been excellent this postseason, winning all four of his starts, but a win tomorrow night could elevate Wacha into legendary status.
Wacha has a chance to be the hero and lead the Cardinals to a decisive game 7. If he shuts down the Red Sox and the Cards manage to win game 7, he will become the stuff of legend. People will talk about him in the same way they remember David Freese and game 6 of the 2011 World Series.
The series isn't over yet, but the Cardinals certainly have their backs against the wall. If they somehow manage to win two straight in Boston, people will talk about their amazing comeback for years to come. But it has to start tomorrow night with Wacha.
Thursday, October 24, 2013
Cardinals need Michael Wacha to come through again tonight
After game one of the World Series, in which the Cardinals seemed to sleep walk through the game, making several mental (and physical) errors, the Cards need a wake-up call.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Things came unraveled in the bottom of the first when Pete Kozma dropped a flip from second baseman Matt Carpenter in what could have been a double play. The umpire, Dana DeMuth originally called the runner, Dustin Pedroia, out at second, saying Kozma dropped the ball in transition. However, the umpires convened and overturned the call.
Although it was the right call, it begs the following questions: (1) Are the umpires going to convene everytime there's a close call and let the majority decide and (2) I don't recall the umpires convening to overturn Don Denkinger's blown call in 1985?
In any case, a double by Mike Napoli put the Cardinals in a 3-0 hole right after that play and the Cards could not muster any offense against lefty Jon Lester.
Now, the Cardinals need Michael Wacha to step up again and try to even the series. Like it or not, the Red Sox have the home field advantage in this series (thanks Bud Selig) and, after last night's game, Sox fans are probably thinking sweep. The Cards need a big outing from Wacha to silence the crowd and give the team some momentum before heading home to St. Louis.
Lose tonight's game and the Cardinals face a two-game deficit and the pressure will be on them to win all their home games. Win tonight and they will have taken home field advantage away from the Red Sox.
Wacha has been up to the task so far this postseason, allowing just one run in 21 innings, including 13.2 straight scoreless. He seems to thrive under pressure and in hostile environments--he nearly no-hit the Pirates on the road in an elimination game in the NLDS.
The Red Sox smell blood, but if Wacha shuts them down it will take some of the wind out of their sails. In the 2004 World Series, the Red Sox scored a run in the first in each of the 4 games and put the pressure on the Cardinals. The Cards were always in a hole that they never could climb out of.
So tonight, pay close attention to the bottom of the first inning. If Wacha can keep the Red Sox scoreless, the Cardinals will have a chance to shift the momentum back in their favor. But if the Sox put the Cardinals in the hole again, it could be another long night.
Tuesday, July 30, 2013
Elvis Andrus is available. Should the Cardinals be interested?
According to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Rangers have apparently made everyone available, including short stop Elvis Andrus. The team is seeking another bat, given the uncertainty surrounding Nelson Cruz and a potential suspension from Biogenesis, with Jim Bowden indicating that they are targeting outfielders, not DH's.
Given the Cardinals need for an upgrade at short, would trading for Andrus make sense?
Well, that depends on what the Cardinals might have to give up for him.
If the Rangers want Oscar Taveras, I would hang up the phone and walk away.
The Cardinals could offer up Matt Adams, but he is not an outfielder and the Rangers might want more.
Of course, the Cardinals and Rangers could make the often rumored, but never really discussed trade of Jurickson Profar for Taveras, but we've been down that road before and its unlikely to happen.
Finally, do the Cardinals really even want Andrus at this point? After signing a 8-year, $120 million extension with the Rangers, Andrus appears to be suffering from post-big contract syndrome, hitting only .250/.310/.289. His .599 OPS is only slightly better than Pete Kozma's .584 mark.
So, even though Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors thinks Andrus would be a logical fit for the Cardinals, I just don't see the Cards making that move at this time.
Given the Cardinals need for an upgrade at short, would trading for Andrus make sense?
Well, that depends on what the Cardinals might have to give up for him.
If the Rangers want Oscar Taveras, I would hang up the phone and walk away.
The Cardinals could offer up Matt Adams, but he is not an outfielder and the Rangers might want more.
Of course, the Cardinals and Rangers could make the often rumored, but never really discussed trade of Jurickson Profar for Taveras, but we've been down that road before and its unlikely to happen.
Finally, do the Cardinals really even want Andrus at this point? After signing a 8-year, $120 million extension with the Rangers, Andrus appears to be suffering from post-big contract syndrome, hitting only .250/.310/.289. His .599 OPS is only slightly better than Pete Kozma's .584 mark.
So, even though Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors thinks Andrus would be a logical fit for the Cardinals, I just don't see the Cards making that move at this time.
Tuesday, July 9, 2013
Cardinals looking to clear dead weight, aka Ty Wigginton, off their roster?
According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals are exploring their options regarding the little used and highly unproductive Ty Wigginton.
Signed to a two-year, $5 million contract this offseason, Wigginton has posted a .158/.238/.193 line in just 57 at bats this season. He has the fewest starts (7) of any position player and the second fewest at bats (only backup catcher Tony Cruz has fewer).
Goold indicates that the Cardinals could make a move before tonight's game against the Astros. The Cardinals are on the hook for Wigginton's salary, but they have a few options, including a minor-league assignment, a trade (not that many teams would be interested) or just designating him for assignment and releasing him.
When he was first signed, I didn't think it was such a bad deal, as he could provide some right handed pop off the bench and a veteran presence for a relatively young team. However, with Matt Adams earning a bench spot and Daniel Descalso having a strong season at the plate, there has been little need for Wigginton.
So, the Cardinals may decide to demote Wigginton or just cut their losses in favor of bringing up someone who can help them at an area of need. My guess is that they will probably call up Ryan Jackson to help fill in for a slumping Pete Kozma.
Whatever the case, it appears that Wigginton will no longer be on the Cardinals major league roster after today.
Signed to a two-year, $5 million contract this offseason, Wigginton has posted a .158/.238/.193 line in just 57 at bats this season. He has the fewest starts (7) of any position player and the second fewest at bats (only backup catcher Tony Cruz has fewer).
Goold indicates that the Cardinals could make a move before tonight's game against the Astros. The Cardinals are on the hook for Wigginton's salary, but they have a few options, including a minor-league assignment, a trade (not that many teams would be interested) or just designating him for assignment and releasing him.
When he was first signed, I didn't think it was such a bad deal, as he could provide some right handed pop off the bench and a veteran presence for a relatively young team. However, with Matt Adams earning a bench spot and Daniel Descalso having a strong season at the plate, there has been little need for Wigginton.
So, the Cardinals may decide to demote Wigginton or just cut their losses in favor of bringing up someone who can help them at an area of need. My guess is that they will probably call up Ryan Jackson to help fill in for a slumping Pete Kozma.
Whatever the case, it appears that Wigginton will no longer be on the Cardinals major league roster after today.
Thursday, May 23, 2013
Where would Cardinals be without their rookie pitchers?
Beset by injuries, the Cardinals have had to turn to the farm system early and often this year.
Normally, when you're dealing with young and unproven players, the results are at best mixed. However, so far the Cardinals rookies have come through. The latest example being Tyler Lyons, who started for the Cardinals last night and hurled 7 innings while allowing only 1 run.
Although Matt Adams and Pete Kozma have helped the Cardinals offense, the biggest impact that the rookies have had is on the pitching staff. So far this season, the Cardinals have utilized 6 rookie pitchers, including 3 starters and 3 relievers.
The rookie starters, led by Shelby Miller and recently joined by John Gast and Tyler Lyons, have gone 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 74 K's across 75 innings.
The relievers, led by Trevor Rosenthal along with Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness, have posted a 2.83 ERA with 45 K's in 38 innings.
This gives the rookie pitchers an overall record of 11-3 and a 2.38 ERA in 113 innings.
Not too shabby.
Better still, the Cardinals have yet to utilize their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha, thereby keeping his service clock from ticking.
Its nice to be able to tap into your farm system and get quality results and it is a big part of the reason the Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central with a 30-16 record.
The Cards rookies may still take some lumps this year, as teams get a book on them, and when that happens, we'll see who can adjust and who cannot. But, so far, I like what I have seen.
Normally, when you're dealing with young and unproven players, the results are at best mixed. However, so far the Cardinals rookies have come through. The latest example being Tyler Lyons, who started for the Cardinals last night and hurled 7 innings while allowing only 1 run.
Although Matt Adams and Pete Kozma have helped the Cardinals offense, the biggest impact that the rookies have had is on the pitching staff. So far this season, the Cardinals have utilized 6 rookie pitchers, including 3 starters and 3 relievers.
The rookie starters, led by Shelby Miller and recently joined by John Gast and Tyler Lyons, have gone 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 74 K's across 75 innings.
The relievers, led by Trevor Rosenthal along with Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness, have posted a 2.83 ERA with 45 K's in 38 innings.
This gives the rookie pitchers an overall record of 11-3 and a 2.38 ERA in 113 innings.
Not too shabby.
Better still, the Cardinals have yet to utilize their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha, thereby keeping his service clock from ticking.
Its nice to be able to tap into your farm system and get quality results and it is a big part of the reason the Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central with a 30-16 record.
The Cards rookies may still take some lumps this year, as teams get a book on them, and when that happens, we'll see who can adjust and who cannot. But, so far, I like what I have seen.
Monday, April 15, 2013
Pete Kozma and BABIP
Ask any closet Sabermetrician and they will tell you that Pete Kozma's 2012 stretch run was a fluke. Call it a small sample size aberration or just plain luck, but Kozma is NOT a .300 hitter and, after starting this season hitting .333 through the first 6 games, he is starting to come back to earth, hitting just .176 over his last 5 games.
Sabermetricians will point to Kozma's batting average of balls in play (BABIP) of .415 as the main indicator of his fluke status. By way of comparison, Albert Pujols, for his career, has a BABIP of .308 and most hitters will hover around the .300 mark.
So, while Kozma will come down to earth and is unlikely to hit .300 for a season, what can we really expect from him?
If you look at his minor league stats, he has a career line of .236/.308/.344. However, that comes with a BABIP of .278, which is low compared to the norm. Is that the result of 6 seasons of bad luck or is a .278 BABIP Kozma's norm?
If we assume that Kozma is capable of posting a BABIP of .300 and adjust his career average (to date) based on this, he is a .246 hitter (through 130 At Bats). However, if his true BABIP is closer to his minor league rate of .278, then he is a .231 hitter.
What can we truly expect out of Kozma this season? My feeling is that he will finish somewhere between the two levels established above--let's call it .240. While not great, if he continues to play good defense, it should be acceptable (remember the Cardinals did just fine last year with Daniel Descalso hitting .227 as the regular second baseman).
Sabermetricians will point to Kozma's batting average of balls in play (BABIP) of .415 as the main indicator of his fluke status. By way of comparison, Albert Pujols, for his career, has a BABIP of .308 and most hitters will hover around the .300 mark.
So, while Kozma will come down to earth and is unlikely to hit .300 for a season, what can we really expect from him?
If you look at his minor league stats, he has a career line of .236/.308/.344. However, that comes with a BABIP of .278, which is low compared to the norm. Is that the result of 6 seasons of bad luck or is a .278 BABIP Kozma's norm?
If we assume that Kozma is capable of posting a BABIP of .300 and adjust his career average (to date) based on this, he is a .246 hitter (through 130 At Bats). However, if his true BABIP is closer to his minor league rate of .278, then he is a .231 hitter.
What can we truly expect out of Kozma this season? My feeling is that he will finish somewhere between the two levels established above--let's call it .240. While not great, if he continues to play good defense, it should be acceptable (remember the Cardinals did just fine last year with Daniel Descalso hitting .227 as the regular second baseman).
Wednesday, March 20, 2013
Cardinals cut ties with infielder Ronny Cedeno.
In a move that is mildly surprising, the Cardinals released infielder Ronny Cedeno yesterday.
Cedeno, who was brought in as a backup to Rafael Furcal, quickly became expendable when it was determined that Matt Carpenter could handle the second base job and Pete Kozma won the short stop job. This allowed the Cardinals to use Daniel Descalso as their backup short stop and, with Ryan Jackson and Greg Garcia waiting in the wings, Cedeno became redundant.
What this also means is that the Cardinals now have a bench spot open for hard-hittin' Matt Adams.
Adams has hit well this spring (.304/.333/.565 with 3 homers) and deserves a bench spot. What's more, the Cardinals probably could use his left handed bat off the bench. With a projected lineup that features only 2 lefties (John Jay and Matt Carpenter), having a left handed bat off the bench, especially one with power, could definitely come in handy.
In addition, with 2 open spots on the 40 man roster, the Cardinals will be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire to see if a team tries to pass anyone useful through. However, that is pretty unlikely. More likely the Cardinals will use those 2 spots for a couple players that could help them this year, such as Michael Wacha and Oscar Taveras.
With Cedeno out of the picture, the only battle for the Cardinals bench appears to be that of Shane Robinson and Adron Chambers for 4th outfielder.
On the pitching side, there are still a few things to sort out, such as the 5th starter and whether the loser of that battle will end up in the pen or at AAA.
But we've still got 11 days to figure that out.
Cedeno, who was brought in as a backup to Rafael Furcal, quickly became expendable when it was determined that Matt Carpenter could handle the second base job and Pete Kozma won the short stop job. This allowed the Cardinals to use Daniel Descalso as their backup short stop and, with Ryan Jackson and Greg Garcia waiting in the wings, Cedeno became redundant.
What this also means is that the Cardinals now have a bench spot open for hard-hittin' Matt Adams.
Adams has hit well this spring (.304/.333/.565 with 3 homers) and deserves a bench spot. What's more, the Cardinals probably could use his left handed bat off the bench. With a projected lineup that features only 2 lefties (John Jay and Matt Carpenter), having a left handed bat off the bench, especially one with power, could definitely come in handy.
In addition, with 2 open spots on the 40 man roster, the Cardinals will be keeping a close eye on the waiver wire to see if a team tries to pass anyone useful through. However, that is pretty unlikely. More likely the Cardinals will use those 2 spots for a couple players that could help them this year, such as Michael Wacha and Oscar Taveras.
With Cedeno out of the picture, the only battle for the Cardinals bench appears to be that of Shane Robinson and Adron Chambers for 4th outfielder.
On the pitching side, there are still a few things to sort out, such as the 5th starter and whether the loser of that battle will end up in the pen or at AAA.
But we've still got 11 days to figure that out.
Wednesday, March 13, 2013
Rafael Furcal's injury has Cardinals rumor mill abuzz
With Rafael Furcal lost for the season, there has been a steady stream of rumors linking the Cardinals to every shortstop that is or could be available.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that the Red Sox could trade Stephen Drew should Jose Iglesias prove ready. The Cardinals pursued Drew this offseason, before losing out to Boston.
Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider says that Elvis Andrus is the perfect fit for the Cards and they could get him in exchange for a pitching prospect, such as Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez.
Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTraderumors notes that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade John McDonald and that the Cards could consider him as well.
Finally, there is Troy Tulowitzki, the biggest name being bandied about in trade rumors, however, per Jon Heyman, the Cardinals have not contacted the Rockies about Tulo and Colorado has no interest in trading him anyway.
Despite all the rumors, the Cardinals do not appear to be looking for immediate help. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith, GM John Mozeliak told reporters after the Furcal injury that "From the immediate standpoint, I think we’re OK. Now, as the season develops, if we don’t feel that things are going as we hoped, then we explore other options. But I think in the short-term, we feel comfortable where we’re at."
In addition, Joe Strauss states that the loss of Furcal is not a crisis and that, as long as Pete Kozma can play acceptable defense until the trade market develops, the Cardinals will be fine.
Thus, as I surmised last week, it appears that the Cardinals will wait until at least the July trade deadline to try to shore up their short stop deficiencies. At that time, the Cardinals should have a better idea as to where they stand as a team and whether Kozma can cut it at short.
Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that the Red Sox could trade Stephen Drew should Jose Iglesias prove ready. The Cardinals pursued Drew this offseason, before losing out to Boston.
Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider says that Elvis Andrus is the perfect fit for the Cards and they could get him in exchange for a pitching prospect, such as Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez.
Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTraderumors notes that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade John McDonald and that the Cards could consider him as well.
Finally, there is Troy Tulowitzki, the biggest name being bandied about in trade rumors, however, per Jon Heyman, the Cardinals have not contacted the Rockies about Tulo and Colorado has no interest in trading him anyway.
Despite all the rumors, the Cardinals do not appear to be looking for immediate help. According to Ben Nicholson-Smith, GM John Mozeliak told reporters after the Furcal injury that "From the immediate standpoint, I think we’re OK. Now, as the season develops, if we don’t feel that things are going as we hoped, then we explore other options. But I think in the short-term, we feel comfortable where we’re at."
In addition, Joe Strauss states that the loss of Furcal is not a crisis and that, as long as Pete Kozma can play acceptable defense until the trade market develops, the Cardinals will be fine.
Thus, as I surmised last week, it appears that the Cardinals will wait until at least the July trade deadline to try to shore up their short stop deficiencies. At that time, the Cardinals should have a better idea as to where they stand as a team and whether Kozma can cut it at short.
Monday, March 11, 2013
Cardinals second base battle to continue into the season
According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals second base battle will continue into the regular season, with "performance and need dictating the starter."
What does this all mean?
Well, it means that what once started as an experiment to find another way to get Matt Carpenter's bat into the lineup and make him into a super utility player is quickly becoming a potential regular gig for Carpenter.
With the recent news that Rafael Furcal is done for the season, the Cardinals are probably looking for more offense from their middle infield positions. Pete Kozma could provide some offense at short, but he is still an unknown quantity, having only played 42 games in the majors.
Carpenter, on the other hand, has hit .283/.359/.447 in 311 at bats in the majors, including a .294/.365/.463 line in 2012. Getting regular at bats at second for him could help offset the loss of Furcal. In addition, it gives the Cards the opportunity to use Daniel Descalso at short.
With both Descalso and Carpenter hitting left handed, the Cardinals cannot use a straight platoon with them. More likely, Carpenter will start the majority of games with Descalso coming off the bench as a defensive replacement late in games. The Cardinals could also choose to start Descalso when sinkerballer Jake Westbrook is on the mound.
In any case, the Cardinals appear comfortable with Carpenter at second and it may be Descalso who now holds down the super utility role.
What does this all mean?
Well, it means that what once started as an experiment to find another way to get Matt Carpenter's bat into the lineup and make him into a super utility player is quickly becoming a potential regular gig for Carpenter.
With the recent news that Rafael Furcal is done for the season, the Cardinals are probably looking for more offense from their middle infield positions. Pete Kozma could provide some offense at short, but he is still an unknown quantity, having only played 42 games in the majors.
Carpenter, on the other hand, has hit .283/.359/.447 in 311 at bats in the majors, including a .294/.365/.463 line in 2012. Getting regular at bats at second for him could help offset the loss of Furcal. In addition, it gives the Cards the opportunity to use Daniel Descalso at short.
With both Descalso and Carpenter hitting left handed, the Cardinals cannot use a straight platoon with them. More likely, Carpenter will start the majority of games with Descalso coming off the bench as a defensive replacement late in games. The Cardinals could also choose to start Descalso when sinkerballer Jake Westbrook is on the mound.
In any case, the Cardinals appear comfortable with Carpenter at second and it may be Descalso who now holds down the super utility role.
Thursday, March 7, 2013
Rafael Furcal to undergo Tommy John surgery.
Jennifer Langosch broke the news this morning and it was confirmed by Derrick Goold that Rafael Furcal will undergo Tommy John surgery, as soon as next week, which will knock him out for all of the 2013 season.
With that issue finally settled, albeit in a bad way, the Cardinals need to move forward and, as I see it, the they have 3 options:
1. Go with what they've got
Sure none of Ronny Cedeno, Pete Kozma and Ryan Jackson don't inspire confidence as the Cardinals full-time option at short, but, as my blogging cohorts at Viva el Birdos point out, the Cards have had worse shortstops and succeeded.
While it may not be the best option, going with the current triumvirate for this season gives the Cardinals time to sort out their strengths and (other) weaknesses. Although the Cardinals are said to have an abundance of pitching, it will take them time to sort it out and determine if they want to trade some of that pitching to fill their shortstop hole.
They can then address the shortstop situation next offseason.
2. Make a move now
Another option would be to try to shore up the shortstop position now (or before the season starts). The Cardinals are nearing a decision as to who their 5th starter will be. Once that decision is made, could they use the "loser" of that battle as trade bait for a shortstop?
Texas is looking for pitching after recently losing Martin Perez to injury and they have stud prospect Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings to replace their current shortstop Elvis Andrus. Colorado is also in need of pitching and they have Josh Rutledge capable of taking over for Troy Tulowitzki at short.
However, are the Cardinals prepared to take on Tulowitzki's salary--he's owed $144 million over the next 8 years (including a $4 million buyout of his 2021 option). Andrus' salary is a bit more reasonable, but he is only signed through 2014 and the Cardinals would probably want to sign him to an extension.
3. Make a move in July
To split the difference between the first two options, the Cardinals could decide to make a move to acquire a shortstop in July. That is how they acquired Furcal a few years ago.
This option would give the Cardinals time to see who establishes himself as their 5th starter and thereby help the Cards to better identify their trade chips. Also, teams are always looking for pitching for the stretch run and this would give the Cardinals more leverage in trade negotiations.
Finally, if the Cardinals cannot reach an agreement on an extension with Adam Wainwright and if they are out of contention, they could flip Wainwright for a young shortstop that can fill the position for several years.
Basically, it would give the Cardinals more time to sort out their options, while also giving them more leverage than an offseason trade.
Overall, I think the Cardinals will go with the third option and make a trade for a shortstop in July as it makes the most sense, given the circumstances. Until then, we'll just have to live with 3+ months of below replacement level play at short.
With that issue finally settled, albeit in a bad way, the Cardinals need to move forward and, as I see it, the they have 3 options:
1. Go with what they've got
Sure none of Ronny Cedeno, Pete Kozma and Ryan Jackson don't inspire confidence as the Cardinals full-time option at short, but, as my blogging cohorts at Viva el Birdos point out, the Cards have had worse shortstops and succeeded.
While it may not be the best option, going with the current triumvirate for this season gives the Cardinals time to sort out their strengths and (other) weaknesses. Although the Cardinals are said to have an abundance of pitching, it will take them time to sort it out and determine if they want to trade some of that pitching to fill their shortstop hole.
They can then address the shortstop situation next offseason.
2. Make a move now
Another option would be to try to shore up the shortstop position now (or before the season starts). The Cardinals are nearing a decision as to who their 5th starter will be. Once that decision is made, could they use the "loser" of that battle as trade bait for a shortstop?
Texas is looking for pitching after recently losing Martin Perez to injury and they have stud prospect Jurickson Profar waiting in the wings to replace their current shortstop Elvis Andrus. Colorado is also in need of pitching and they have Josh Rutledge capable of taking over for Troy Tulowitzki at short.
However, are the Cardinals prepared to take on Tulowitzki's salary--he's owed $144 million over the next 8 years (including a $4 million buyout of his 2021 option). Andrus' salary is a bit more reasonable, but he is only signed through 2014 and the Cardinals would probably want to sign him to an extension.
3. Make a move in July
To split the difference between the first two options, the Cardinals could decide to make a move to acquire a shortstop in July. That is how they acquired Furcal a few years ago.
This option would give the Cardinals time to see who establishes himself as their 5th starter and thereby help the Cards to better identify their trade chips. Also, teams are always looking for pitching for the stretch run and this would give the Cardinals more leverage in trade negotiations.
Finally, if the Cardinals cannot reach an agreement on an extension with Adam Wainwright and if they are out of contention, they could flip Wainwright for a young shortstop that can fill the position for several years.
Basically, it would give the Cardinals more time to sort out their options, while also giving them more leverage than an offseason trade.
Overall, I think the Cardinals will go with the third option and make a trade for a shortstop in July as it makes the most sense, given the circumstances. Until then, we'll just have to live with 3+ months of below replacement level play at short.
Tuesday, March 5, 2013
Can we really blame Rafael Furcal for the Cardinals shortstop mess?
With the latest setback for Rafael Furcal likely knocking him out for the early part of the season, if not longer, there has been a lot of vitriol spewed in Furcal's direction. But is it really warranted?
According to Jennifer Langosch, back in 2012, when he suffered the injury, Furcal was examined by team medical director George Paletta who diagnosed him with a grade 2 UCL strain. Paletta did not recommend surgery, but instead recommended aggressive therapy and platelet-rich plasma injections. Furcal was re-evaluated a month later and the Cardinals saw enough improvement to continue that course.
Surgery was never an option at that time, as echoed by GM John Mozeliak yesterday when he stated "At the time, you couldn’t have found a surgeon who would have recommended surgery, so I don’t think that was an option.”
Did Furcal experience pain during his rehab or any other indications that this course of treatment was not working? We do not know for sure, but everything seemed to be going fine until Furcal made a sidearm throw last Thursday, which appears to have led to new ligament damage.
So, we cannot blame Furcal for the Cardinals predicament. Sure, he did not want to have surgery, but none of the doctors consulted recommended surgery anyway.
No, the real blame here falls on the Cardinals for not having an adequate backup plan.
The Cards must have known there was a risk that this rest and rehab process would not work, but the only steps they took to put a backup plan in place was to sign Ronny Cedeno.
Now the Cardinals have a hole to fill in their lineup, possibly for the entire season, and the best they can come up with is some combination of Cedeno, Pete Kozma and possibly Ryan Jackson. None of whom inspire confidence.
Perhaps the Cards can swing a trade either now or around the trade deadline, but they will have lost what little leverage they might have had.
In any case, the Cardinals have managed to win without a quality shortstop in the past and it looks like they will have to do so again this year.
According to Jennifer Langosch, back in 2012, when he suffered the injury, Furcal was examined by team medical director George Paletta who diagnosed him with a grade 2 UCL strain. Paletta did not recommend surgery, but instead recommended aggressive therapy and platelet-rich plasma injections. Furcal was re-evaluated a month later and the Cardinals saw enough improvement to continue that course.
Surgery was never an option at that time, as echoed by GM John Mozeliak yesterday when he stated "At the time, you couldn’t have found a surgeon who would have recommended surgery, so I don’t think that was an option.”
Did Furcal experience pain during his rehab or any other indications that this course of treatment was not working? We do not know for sure, but everything seemed to be going fine until Furcal made a sidearm throw last Thursday, which appears to have led to new ligament damage.
So, we cannot blame Furcal for the Cardinals predicament. Sure, he did not want to have surgery, but none of the doctors consulted recommended surgery anyway.
No, the real blame here falls on the Cardinals for not having an adequate backup plan.
The Cards must have known there was a risk that this rest and rehab process would not work, but the only steps they took to put a backup plan in place was to sign Ronny Cedeno.
Now the Cardinals have a hole to fill in their lineup, possibly for the entire season, and the best they can come up with is some combination of Cedeno, Pete Kozma and possibly Ryan Jackson. None of whom inspire confidence.
Perhaps the Cards can swing a trade either now or around the trade deadline, but they will have lost what little leverage they might have had.
In any case, the Cardinals have managed to win without a quality shortstop in the past and it looks like they will have to do so again this year.
Friday, February 22, 2013
Rafael Furcal injury highlights Cardinals lack of quality options at short
The latest news out of Spring Training is that Cardinals short stop Rafael Furcal is hurting, again.
According to Derrick Gould of the Post-Dispatch, Furcal continues to be hampered by pain in his right elbow.
As Furcal put it himself, "It still hurts. A lot."
Of course, by now we should expect an injury to Furcal. Last year he missed 41 games, he missed 75 in 2011 and he missed 65 in 2010 and, at 35 years old, he's not going to magically get healthier.
Based on all that, one would have expected the Cardinals to have a backup plan. Someone to fill in while Furcal is on the shelf.
Instead, we have Ronny Cedeno, Pete Kozma and Ryan Jackson.
First dibs on the short stop job will probably fall to Cedeno--he of the $1.15 million contract and career WAR of -(yes, negative)1.6. Cedeno did a decent job as a utility infielder for the Mets last year (.259/.332/.410 in 166 at bats) and he did start at short for two years for the Pirates from 2010-2011. But there is a reason why the Pirates have not had a winning record for 20 years. Because they continually start players like Ronny Cedeno.
Once Cedeno proves that he is no better than a replacement level player, the Cardinals will probably turn to Kozma. The Cards caught lightning in a bottle when Kozma hit .333/.383/.569 down the stretch last year, but that was probably just a small sample size (72 at bats) aberration. Truth is, Kozma is a career .236/.308/.344 hitter in the minors and will probably not hit enough in the majors to justify a starting job.
Which leaves us with Ryan Jackson. Jackson is regarded as a better fielder and has a better minor league resume than Kozma with a career .267/.335/.370 line. But, what does it say when the Cardinals consider him lower on the depth chart the the light hitting Kozma.
So, with a little over a month left before opening day, the Cardinals are left with an ailing short stop and 3 below replacement level options as his backup. The Cards are hoping that Furcal will be ready by opening day, but, given his history, they should have had a better backup plan in place.
According to Derrick Gould of the Post-Dispatch, Furcal continues to be hampered by pain in his right elbow.
As Furcal put it himself, "It still hurts. A lot."
Of course, by now we should expect an injury to Furcal. Last year he missed 41 games, he missed 75 in 2011 and he missed 65 in 2010 and, at 35 years old, he's not going to magically get healthier.
Based on all that, one would have expected the Cardinals to have a backup plan. Someone to fill in while Furcal is on the shelf.
Instead, we have Ronny Cedeno, Pete Kozma and Ryan Jackson.
First dibs on the short stop job will probably fall to Cedeno--he of the $1.15 million contract and career WAR of -(yes, negative)1.6. Cedeno did a decent job as a utility infielder for the Mets last year (.259/.332/.410 in 166 at bats) and he did start at short for two years for the Pirates from 2010-2011. But there is a reason why the Pirates have not had a winning record for 20 years. Because they continually start players like Ronny Cedeno.
Once Cedeno proves that he is no better than a replacement level player, the Cardinals will probably turn to Kozma. The Cards caught lightning in a bottle when Kozma hit .333/.383/.569 down the stretch last year, but that was probably just a small sample size (72 at bats) aberration. Truth is, Kozma is a career .236/.308/.344 hitter in the minors and will probably not hit enough in the majors to justify a starting job.
Which leaves us with Ryan Jackson. Jackson is regarded as a better fielder and has a better minor league resume than Kozma with a career .267/.335/.370 line. But, what does it say when the Cardinals consider him lower on the depth chart the the light hitting Kozma.
So, with a little over a month left before opening day, the Cardinals are left with an ailing short stop and 3 below replacement level options as his backup. The Cards are hoping that Furcal will be ready by opening day, but, given his history, they should have had a better backup plan in place.
Sunday, December 30, 2012
Cardinals still looking for heir to Ozzie Smith's throne
Ozzie Smith retired from baseball in 1996 after 15 seasons with the Cardinals. During that time, he won 11 Gold Gloves and was voted to the All Star Team 14 years.
In the 16 years since his retirement, the Cardinals have had 6 different shortstops (Royce Clayton, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan and Rafael Furcal) and, other than Edgar Renteria's 6 years, none has spent more than 3 years at the helm.
I understand that in this day and age, it is difficult to develop and retain a player. Renteria, the best of the bunch, left the Cardinals for greener pastures after the 2004 season. Whereas the other players were either traded (Clayton, Ryan) or allowed to leave via free agency (Izturis, Eckstein) and chances are Furcal will join the latter group.
The cheapest way for the Cardinals to find an heir to Ozzie's throne would be via the draft, whereas the Cards can control the rights of the player for several years at a below market rate. However, the Cardinals have already tried this route twice, drafting Tyler Greene in the first round (30th overall) in the 2005 draft and selecting Pete Kozma 18th overall in the 2007 draft.
Greene never panned out for the Cards, hitting .218/.295/.329 in 495 at bats over 4 years before being traded to the Astros. Kozma doesn't look much better, despite his strong September and postseason, as his .236/.308/.344 career line in the minors hints that his performance was a small sample size fluke.
So, with Furcal likely gone after this season, where can the Cardinals turn to fill the gap?
One option is free agency. However, a quick look at the potential free agent list for 2014 reveals a bunch of players on the wrong side of 30. Yeah, you could take a chance on someone like Yunel Escobar or Stephen Drew, but they are not a long-term solution.
The best bet is to trade for a young, major league ready shortstop. This is where the Texas Rangers come in. The Rangers have two young shortstops in Elvis Andrus and top prospect Jurickson Profar and it seems likely that they would move one of the two to fill a hole elsewhere.
One such hole is starting pitching. The Rangers have been searching for starting pitching all offseason, pursuing the likes of Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, before they signed elsewhere, and recent reports indicate that the Rangers are looking more at trades than free agency to improve their team at this point.
The Cardinals have an abundance of young pitching that they could offer, including Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha. It seems, on paper at least, that the two sides could work something out.
However, despite Buster Olney's speculation that the Rangers would likely trade Andrus this offseason, the Diamondbacks tried unsuccessfully to land either Andrus or Profar for Justin Upton, before settling for Didi Gregorious in a 3 team trade involving their top pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer.
So, could the Cardinals pry either one away from the Rangers? Probably, but it will be costly. I'm guessing it would take at least Lynn and one of the other 4 youngsters to land Andrus. Profar may be a little cheaper in terms of prospects, as he is as still unproven, but he is generally considered the top prospect in the game and would still likely require two young pitchers in return.
A trade like that would put a big dent in the Cards pitching depth. But, if it fills the Cardinals hole at short for the next 10 years, it would be worth it.
In the 16 years since his retirement, the Cardinals have had 6 different shortstops (Royce Clayton, Edgar Renteria, David Eckstein, Cesar Izturis, Brendan Ryan and Rafael Furcal) and, other than Edgar Renteria's 6 years, none has spent more than 3 years at the helm.
I understand that in this day and age, it is difficult to develop and retain a player. Renteria, the best of the bunch, left the Cardinals for greener pastures after the 2004 season. Whereas the other players were either traded (Clayton, Ryan) or allowed to leave via free agency (Izturis, Eckstein) and chances are Furcal will join the latter group.
The cheapest way for the Cardinals to find an heir to Ozzie's throne would be via the draft, whereas the Cards can control the rights of the player for several years at a below market rate. However, the Cardinals have already tried this route twice, drafting Tyler Greene in the first round (30th overall) in the 2005 draft and selecting Pete Kozma 18th overall in the 2007 draft.
Greene never panned out for the Cards, hitting .218/.295/.329 in 495 at bats over 4 years before being traded to the Astros. Kozma doesn't look much better, despite his strong September and postseason, as his .236/.308/.344 career line in the minors hints that his performance was a small sample size fluke.
So, with Furcal likely gone after this season, where can the Cardinals turn to fill the gap?
One option is free agency. However, a quick look at the potential free agent list for 2014 reveals a bunch of players on the wrong side of 30. Yeah, you could take a chance on someone like Yunel Escobar or Stephen Drew, but they are not a long-term solution.
The best bet is to trade for a young, major league ready shortstop. This is where the Texas Rangers come in. The Rangers have two young shortstops in Elvis Andrus and top prospect Jurickson Profar and it seems likely that they would move one of the two to fill a hole elsewhere.
One such hole is starting pitching. The Rangers have been searching for starting pitching all offseason, pursuing the likes of Zack Greinke, Anibal Sanchez and Edwin Jackson, before they signed elsewhere, and recent reports indicate that the Rangers are looking more at trades than free agency to improve their team at this point.
The Cardinals have an abundance of young pitching that they could offer, including Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha. It seems, on paper at least, that the two sides could work something out.
However, despite Buster Olney's speculation that the Rangers would likely trade Andrus this offseason, the Diamondbacks tried unsuccessfully to land either Andrus or Profar for Justin Upton, before settling for Didi Gregorious in a 3 team trade involving their top pitching prospect, Trevor Bauer.
So, could the Cardinals pry either one away from the Rangers? Probably, but it will be costly. I'm guessing it would take at least Lynn and one of the other 4 youngsters to land Andrus. Profar may be a little cheaper in terms of prospects, as he is as still unproven, but he is generally considered the top prospect in the game and would still likely require two young pitchers in return.
A trade like that would put a big dent in the Cards pitching depth. But, if it fills the Cardinals hole at short for the next 10 years, it would be worth it.
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