The case for the Cardinals acquiring Cliff Lee

Back in mid-June, I took a look at the possibility of the Cardinals acquiring Cliff Lee.  Rumors were swirling that acquiring Lee was a possibility for the Cards, mainly because Lee did not include the Cardinals on his no-trade list.

At that time, I concluded that acquiring Lee would not make sense, mainly because of the costs in terms of prospects and dollars.  Besides, all indications at that time were that the Phillies would not trade Lee anyway.

However, a lot can change over a month and a half.

The Cardinals starting pitching, especially Lance Lynn, has struggled.  The 5th starter spot is still unsettled and Shelby Miller may be on an innings limit.  Add to that the unlikelihood that Chris Carpenter will be able to return and that the Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is now willing to listen on Lee and maybe the Cards should at least consider it.

Since I've already covered why the Cardinals should not acquire Lee, let's take a look at the reasons why acquiring Lee would make sense.

The Cardinals have payroll flexibility

With the contracts of Chris Carpenter ($10.5 million), Jake Westbrook ($7.5 million) and Carlos Beltran ($13 million) coming off the books next year, the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility.

Adam Wainwright extension (basically giving him a $7.5 million raise next year) and arbitration raises for players such as David Freese, Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso will eat away some of those savings.  But considering that Bill DeWitt plans on giving the team's payroll a boost, there should be ample room for Lee's $25 million salary.

The Cardinals have minor league depth

As the team with the best minor league system, the Cardinals are one team with the minor league depth to pull off a trade for Lee without seriously depleting their farm system.

The Cardinals could spare a prospect like Kolten Wong, who is blocked at the major league level, and perhaps one of their top pitching prospects, like Carlos Martinez, who appears to be behind Michael Wacha on the Cards depth chart.

Those two, along with a couple lower level prospects should be enough to acquire Lee and would not significantly impact the Cardinals minor league depth.

Prospects are, after all, just prospects  

The thing about prospects is that they don't always pan out, no matter how highly regarded they are.  Teams always tend to overvalue their own prospects and overhype them to the extent that fans think they are the second coming of Babe Ruth or Cy Young, but they rarely live up to their hype.

Take for instance all of the prospects and players who were traded for Cliff Lee between 2009 and 2010, when he was traded 3 times.  The list consists of the following players:  Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Philippe Aumont, J.C. Romero, Tyson Gillies, Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matthew Lawson.

All of those players have combined to produce a wins above replacement (WAR) of 6.1 or an average of just 0.6 per player.  Take away veteran reliever Romero and his 3.5 WAR from that group and you're left with a combined WAR of just 3.6 or an average of 0.4 per prospect.

So, despite a lot of highly touted prospects changing hands, none of them have gone on to stardom and I'm sure that the teams that traded them have not regretted their decisions.

That's not to say that if the Cardinals traded Wong and Martinez, they wouldn't go on to productive careers with the Phillies.  Cardinals fans are still upset about the Dan Haren for Mark Mulder trade.  But the odds are still in the Cards favor.

Overall, I'm still probably on the side of passing on Cliff Lee and going with what we've got.  But a one-two punch of Wainwright and Lee heading into the playoffs certainly is tempting.

The Cardinals can learn a lesson from Alfonso Soriano when it comes to their handling of Carlos Beltran

The Cubs finally pulled off the seemingly impossible today, trading Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees, along with a ton of money, for a minor league prospect to be named later.

Thus ends one of the longest sagas involving a bad contract in recent history.

To get the Yankees to take Soriano off their hands and get a halfway decent prospect in return, the Cubs will eat nearly $18 million of Soriano's remaining contract.

Yes, you heard that right, the Cubs will be paying the Yankees $17.7 million so that Soriano can play for them.

As a Cardinals fan living in Cubs territory, I've been able to witness the Soriano saga first hand.  The Cubs grossly overspent on Soriano, signing him to a 8-year, $136 million contract, back when the Tribune Company was trying to win to increase the sales price of the team.

However, after a couple of division titles and zero playoff victories, the Cubs were left with a player who's skills (and knees) were deteriorating and who's play was of far less value than his contract.

Thus, when Albert Pujols became a free agent and was looking for a big contract, although my heart wanted him to stay in St. Louis and retire with the team, in the back of my mind I knew that a long-term contract, like the one he signed with the Angels, could come back to haunt us.

Now the Cardinals are facing a similar dilemma with Carlos Beltran.

Back around the All Star break, Beltran told Derrick Goold that he wanted to play three more years and recently Bernie Miklasz made the case for keeping Beltran.

For the most part I agree with Miklasz, the Cardinals could use Beltran for another year or two.  Oscar Taveras has been limited this year due to an ankle injury and may not be ready to take over for Beltran next year.  In addition, Jon Jay has not been producing at his usual level, so even if Taveras were ready to start in 2014, maybe it would make more sense to put him in center.

But, the crux of the issue with Beltran is this:  How long do the Cardinals want to commit to Beltran and would Beltran be willing to accept a below-market deal to stay with the Cards?

I do not want to see the Cardinals offering Beltran a 3-year deal.  My preference, and probably the team's as well, would be a one-year deal with an option for the second year.

If he continues to produce, then there's no problem.  But, if his production drops, like it did during the second half of 2012, then the Cardinals will have limited their losses.

The worst thing to do from a team standpoint is to pull another Ty Wigginton move and sign an aging veteran to a 2 or 3 year deal at or (in the case of Wigginton) above market and be stuck with a bad contract.

Injuries happen more often to players as they get older.  Look at Lance Berkman, after he signed an extension with the Cardinals.  Chris Carpenter is another example.

So, as a team, you have to do everything in your power to limit your exposure to losses, which includes foregoing long-term contracts for shorter contracts for a bit more money per year.

It is a formula that has worked well for the Cardinals in the past and one that they should stick to moving forward.

Cardinals in pursuit of Jake Peavy?

According to Jon Heyman of CBS Sports, the Cardinals and Red Sox "appear to be emerging as two potential players" for right hander Jake Peavy of the White Sox.  With the recent trade of Matt Garza by the Cubs to the Rangers, Peavy is now the top pitcher on the market.

As I relayed yesterday, Ken Rosenthal reported that the Cardinals were one of several teams that had a scout in attendance for Peavy's start on Saturday.  Although Rosenthal suggested that the Cardinals could have been scouting other players, it appears now that perhaps Peavy was their main focus.

Peavy, who was making his fist start since missing over a month with a rib fracture, pitched fairly well, giving up only 2 earned runs (4 total) over 6 innings.  He seems to be back to his old form after dealing with injuries from 2009-2011.

One reason the Cardinals could be attractive to the Cardinals, after they passed on Garza, is that Peavy is under team control through the 2014 season.  Granted he will earn $14.5 million next year, but the Cards would have the payroll flexibility to afford such a contract.

Another reason the Cardinals could be looking to add Peavy, is that the Cardinals may have innings limits on some of their young starters, such as Shelby Miller.  As was reported by Fox Sports Midwest, Miller appears to be limited to 180 innings this season, which might put him in a Stephen Strasburg type situation come September and October.

Finally, it appears that Chris Carpenter is unlikely to provide any help this season.  Just one day after Joe Strauss reported that Carpenter still had "a long way to go", now comes the news that Carpenter's rehab has been delayed due to hand numbness.

With Lance Lynn struggling and Joe Kelly currently manning the 5th starter spot, the Cardinals may want to bolster their rotation with a veteran arm, like Peavy.  Although I'm not entirely sold on the idea, especially when you consider the cost in terms of prospects and money, I can see why they are at least considering it.

One thing is for sure, the trade rumors are heating up. 

Changes looming for Cardinals starting rotation?

The Cardinals are facing big decisions regarding their starting rotation. 

First off, Chris Carpenter is expected to meet with the Cardinals' brass to discuss his take on his recent outing in which he allowed 9 hits and 4 earned runs in 3.1 innings. 

Manager Mike Matheny said he had a brief conversation with AAA manager Ron "Pop" Warner, but is waiting for Carpenter's assessment before forming any conclusions.

As Matheny puts it, " I trust his evaluation as much as anything. He's a pretty honest evaluator of himself. I'm excited to talk to him and see exactly how he felt."

It has been assumed that if Carpenter is deemed ready to go, he will replace Joe Kelly in the starting rotation.  However, that depends on whether Carpenter feels he is ready and if the Cardinals feel he is ready as well.

Its possible that the Cardinals will have Carpenter make at least one more start in the minors before inserting him in the rotation, if at all.

Another decision the Cardinals need to address is what to do about Lance Lynn.  After another start in which he struggled with both his stuff and his emotions, Matheny met with Lynn to discuss his approach and how to best harness those emotions.

Of course, keeping his emotions in check is just one of his problems, Lynn continues to struggle with his performance as well.  Lynn has now lost 4 of his last 5 starts, allowing 4 or more runs in each of those losses.

After struggling in the middle of last season, Lynn appears to be going through the same issues this year.  Last year, the Cardinals blamed Lynn's midseason struggles on his weight.  However, this year they no longer have that excuse, after Lynn lost weight over the offseason.

If Lynn doesn't get straightened out soon, The Cardinals could demote him to the bullpen, like last year, until he gets things sorted out.

Finally, the Cardinals need to figure out what to do with Carlos Martinez.  According to Jennifer Langosch, John Mozeliak has said that the Cards have 7-10 days before they have to get Martinez back into a starting rotation to keep him stretched out. 

Whether that is at the major league or minor league level is the decision that faces the Cardinals.  Its possible that if the Cards do not feel Carpenter is ready to move into the rotation, the team will turn to Martinez to replace Joe Kelly or if Lynn doesn't improve, Martinez could replace him in the rotation.

While the possibility of Martinez pitching in the big league rotation may excite Cardinals fans, the fact is the team would probably prefer to have a more experienced guy in the rotation.

In any case, the next week or so could see significant changes to the Cardinals rotation.

Cardinals conundrum: What will be Carlos Martinez' role in the second half?

According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals will spend some time over the All Star break assessing what to do with Carlos Martinez. 

After optioning Martinez down to AAA on May 27th to stretch him out as a starter, the Cardinals recalled him on July 11th to give the team a fresh arm in the pen before the break.  However, what was originally considered a temporary assignment may now become a more permanent one.

There are various factors that come into play here, the foremost being what makes the most sense, both for the team and for Martinez' development. 

As GM John Mozeliak states:

"We have to assess what makes the most sense. He’s electric. I definitely don’t want him to go backward in terms of how much he has built up (as a starter). As we look at the next two or three weeks is there enough usage to justify keeping him here?”

In addition, Mike Matheny sums up the difficult decision like this:

 “We do really like what he brings as a starter. For his development, it’s better for him to be prepared to start. It’s tough to weigh. We know he wants to be here. We like having him here. We think he can help us. But there is more that goes into the decision.”

As Matheny says, there are other factors at play here as well.

For instance, a lot might depend on how Chris Carpenter fares in his rehab.  He makes his first start tonight for AA Springfield and if he progresses, the need for Martinez as a starter decreases.


Also, will the Cardinals be able to find Martinez enough work?  Prior to being moved into the starting rotation, Joe Kelly worked as the long reliever in the pen, the role that Martinez would likely take over.  In the first two month of the season, Kelly only threw 18.2 innings, which would have put him on pace for about 55 innings.  Hardly enough innings to allow a youngster like Martinez develop properly.

I think that the best option for the Cardinals and Martinez would be to send him back down to AAA to start. Although the Cardinals might not need another starter this year, they will certainly be looking for starters next year, with Jake Westbrook likely heading to free agency and the 5th starter spot still up in the air.  Martinez could be one of the favorites to claim a starting role next year, but only if he's given time to properly develop this year. 

However, the Cardinals may have already made their decision, as they optioned Keith Butler to AAA today.  Butler, a righthander like Martinez, was unscored upon in his last 8 appearances, yet the Cards sent him down anyway, a possible indication that they have decided to keep Martinez.

In any case, I hope that if the Cardinals have decided to keep Martinez in the pen, it won't hamper his long-term development.

Desperate for a fresh arm in the pen, Cardinals recall Carlos Martinez

After another short outing by starter Shelby Miller, which required Seth Maness to pitch 2 innings and Edward Mujica to pitch his 6th consecutive game, the Cardinals needed a fresh arm in the pen. Thus, Carlos Martinez was recalled today, with Michael Blazek being sent to the minors.

This is likely just a short-term stint for Martinez, who will likely head back to Memphis during the All-Star break to continue his work as a starter.

GM John Mozeliak described Martinez' role as "bullpen innings eater", when asked by Bernie Miklasz. So, Martinez will likely fill the long reliever role that Maness has occupied, while Seth gets a chance to rest.

I don't normally like it when teams shuttle pitchers up and down from their AAA club, especially one as talented as Martinez.  I think it can affect their development and Martinez needs work to develop a third pitch to go with his blazing fastball and excellent curve.

However, as this appears to be just a short-term move, mostly out of necessity, it should not have much affect.  Martinez should return to AAA to continue his work as a starter and provide depth for a struggling starting rotation. 

Joe Kelly is currently the 5th starter and Chris Carpenter is set to begin a rehab assignment on Monday, but neither one is a sure thing.  In addition, the recent struggles of Miller and Lance Lynn have raised concerns about the Cardinals pitching staff, and rightly so.

Bottom line, the Cardinals need Martinez stretched out at AAA as another option should one of the current starters falter.

Cardinals quietly looking for a starter?

Despite the Cardinals general belief that they have the internal pitching depth to handle any issues with their starting pitching, Joe Strauss indicates in a recent article that the Cardinals might be conducting a "low-decibel" search for another starter.

With Carlos Martinez waiting in the wings and Michael Wacha likely a candidate to return in September, the Cardinals have two strong options in AAA should one of their current starter falter.  In addition, the Cards will closely monitor Chris Carpenter progress in his rehab from his shoulder injury to determine if he is an option for the rotation.

The next 3 weeks will be an evaluation period for the Cardinals, not only to see if they need an upgrade to their current rotation of Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly, but also to see where that potential upgrade might be (either internal or external).

For his part, GM John Mozeliak indicated that he believes that the team has "sound internal options", but that he reserves the right to "re-examine things the next four weeks."

The Cardinals are already scouting players in anticipation of the trade deadline, with Adam McCalvy reporting that the team had a scout at the Mets/Brewers game this afternoon.  Who the scout was looking at is unclear, but its unlikely that is was any of the Brewers players (the Cards are adverse to trading within the division).

What is also unclear is whether the Cardinals could really find a pitcher that is clearly better than their internal option on the trade market.  Matt Garza would probably qualify, but, as I said before, the Cards are unlikely to trade within their own division.  



Bud Norris has pitched well this year, but is probably no better than a 4th or 5th starter on a contending team.  Is he really a step up from Joe Kelly (or Wacha or Martinez)?

In addition, after recent struggles, Shelby Miller, Jake Westbrook and Lance Lynn each turned in strong performances their last times out, helping to alleviate concerns. 

So, while the Cardinals may be quietly checking out the starting pitching market, its probably more of a passive than an active search.  They will check and scout all of the external options and see what the asking prices are.  If there is a starter out there that could be had for cheap and is a clear upgrade to what they have (both in the majors and minors), they could make a move. 

However, its more likely they'll stick with what they've got.

Could the Cardinals pursue Cliff Lee at the trade deadline?

Last week the news leaked that the Cardinals were one of 9 teams that can acquire Cliff Lee without his permission.  Lee apparently left the Cards off the list because he was intrigued with the idea of playing for them, due to their winning culture and proximity to his Arkansas home, and because he probably figured the Cards wouldn't want to trade for him.

But, not so fast, says Derrick Goold:

"It is never wasteful to trade for a boost to the bullpen. A sure-thing reliever is a valuable commodity at the trade deadline. The Cardinals, however, may find the answer for the bullpen by seeking a starter. The Cardinals will look at the available starting pitcher market with the idea that if there is an upgrade to what they have -- an innings horse, for example, with great results -- then they should look into acquiring that player.

"Cliff Lee is going to be the starter that generates a lot of attention/hype/rumors and that's partially because the Cardinals are not on his no-trade list. That's not a surprise. Lee has expressed an interest in St. Louis before, and his agent has approached the Cardinals in the past about his free-agent clients.

"Lee may be the moonshot for a move, but it won't be because the Cardinals are opposed to considering starting pitching as a target at the trade deadline."

So, there could be mutual interest there, but does it make sense from the Cardinals standpoint?

Well, Lee would be an obvious upgrade to the Cardinals rotation.  He has plenty of playoff experience and could give the Cards an imposing one-two-three punch of Adam Wainwright, Cliff Lee and Shelby Miller for the playoffs.

Another advantage to adding Lee is that it would allow the Cardinals to move Michael Wacha to the pen, as a means to keep his innings down.  As Wacha showed last year in the minors, he can excel in relief role and help alleviate the Cardinals bullpen issues.

However, we also have to consider the possibility of Chris Carpenter returning, however remote.  If Carpenter has made enough progress by early July, such that he is pitching in rehab games without any setbacks, the chances of the Cardinals trading for someone like Cliff Lee are greatly diminished.

Another factor to consider is the cost.  For one thing, the Cards would likely have to give up a handful of prospects to pry Lee away from the Phillies.

For example, between July 2009 and July 2010, Lee was traded 3 times garnering a variety of returns.

When the Cleveland Indians traded Lee to the Phillies back in July 2009, they received Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald and Jason Knapp, the Phillies # 3, 4, 5 and 10 ranked prospects, according to Baseball America, by far the biggest return for the lefty.

When the Phillies traded Lee to the Mariners in December 2009, they only received one top 10 prospect, Philippe Aumont, who was ranked as the Mariners 3rd best prospect by Baseball America, along with pitcher J.C. Romero and outfielder Tyson Gillies.

Finally, when the Mariners traded Lee to Texas in July 2010, they got Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matthew Lawson in return.  Smoak was rated as the Mariners #2 prospect by Baseball America, Beavan was a former first round pick and Lueke and Lawson were average prospects, at best.

Thus, looking at his trade history, one could assume that the Cardinals would have to give up at least one of their top prospects for Lee, as well as some mid-tier prospects.  My guess is that it would likely require the Cards to part with someone like Carlos Martinez, along with someone like Maikel Cleto and another lesser prospect.

But that's not the only cost that would be associated with Lee.  One also has to factor in his salary.  Lee would be owed the prorated portion of his $25 million salary for the rest of 2013, plus an additional $25 million in both 2014 and 2015. So, we're talking about adding roughly $60 million of salary to the books over the next few years.

With the contracts of Jake Westbrook, Carlos Beltran and Rafael Furcal coming off the books, the Cardinals could probably afford to pay the remainder of Lee's contract.  But is it really necessary?

If the Cardinals are looking to shore up their bullpen by acquiring a starter, there are probably a lot cheaper alternatives available out there.

Bottom line is, despite the appeal of adding a guy like Cliff Lee for the stretch run and playoffs, the Cardinals are unlikely to make such a move, as it would probably be too costly.

What does the Cardinals starting pitching depth chart look like now?

The Cardinals pitching staff has seen many changes during the first two months, primarily due to injuries.  The starting pitching depth that was once a strength of this team has taken the biggest hit, with 4 pitchers currently on the DL.

Here's a look at the Cardinals depth chart for their starting pitching prior to spring training:

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Jaime Garcia
4. Jake Westbrook
5. Lance Lynn
6. Shelby Miller
7. Joe Kelly
8. Trevor Rosenthal
9. Carlos Martinez
10. Michael Wacha

Lance Lynn was originally suppose to battle Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal for the 5th starter job, but Carpenter's spring injury locked up a rotation spot for Lynn and made the 5th starter job a battle between Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal.

After losing their 5th starter battle to Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal have been relegated to the bullpen and it appears that they are there to stay, at least for this season.  With the emergence of Wacha and John Gast, along with relatively unknown Tyler Lyons, I would say the depth chart now looks more like this:

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter (DL - could return in July?)
3. Jake Westbrook (DL - expected back in 1-2 weeks)
4. Lance Lynn
5. Shelby Miller
6. Michael Wacha
7. John Gast (DL - out 'til end of June?)
8. Tyler Lyons
9. Carlos Martinez
10. Jaime Garcia (DL - out for season)

Shifting Kelly and Rosenthal to the pen hurt the Cardinals depth some, but it was offset by the emergence of Wacha and Gast.  In particular, if Wacha hadn't pitched lights out in the spring, I think that one of Kelly or Rosenthal would have started the season at AAA to remain stretched out as a starter.

Gast's emergence helped the Cardinals to delay the callup of Wacha, but when Gast got injured, it finally forced the Cards hand.  The question that looms is who will stay in the rotation once Westbrook, Gast and possibly even Carpenter return from the DL.  But that's a topic for another day.

John Gast pulled after facing 6 hitters with shoulder injury (and other bad news). Is it Michael Wacha time now?

When it rains, it pours.

According to Jennifer Langosch, the Cardinals pitching staff took another hit tonight when John Gast had to leave the game, after facing just 6 hitters, due to shoulder tightness.

As if that wasn't enough, Jennifer Langosch also reported that Jake Westbrook will likely get a second opinion on his ailing shoulder next week, most likely with Dr. James Andrews.  That's never a good sign.

Finally, to top it off, Jennifer reported that the Cardinals are "backing off" Chris Carpenter's throwing program as he didn't feel as good after his last bullpen session. 

With Gast likely heading to the DL, Westbrook likely needing longer to rehab his elbow and Carpenter likely needing more time for his comeback, it appears that the Cardinals may have no other choice than to turn to Michael Wacha. 

If Gast's injury is short term in nature, the Cards may be able to make due with someone like Joe Kelly or Seth Maness filling in for a start or two.  But, if he is going to be out for an extended period of time, the Cardinals with need a more long-term solution and Wacha would be the logical choice.

The service time clock is obviously still a factor, but its not the only factor in these decisions.  When you're a team contending for a division title, you've got to put the players on the field that give you the best chance to win.

For now, all we can do is wait for a prognosis on Gast and see what happens next.

Chris Carpenter attempting another comback as starter. But who would he replace in the rotation?

In case you haven't heard by now, Chris Carpenter is attempting to make another comeback from the shoulder issues that have plague him the last two years. 

Initially it was reported that the Cardinals were hoping that Carpenter could join the bullpen at some point this season.  However, recent reports indicate that he is conditioning himself to be a starter.

While its great to see him making a comeback and I wish him all the best, I have a hard time finding a spot for him in a starting rotation that is currently the best in baseball with a 2.38 ERA.  But if the Cardinals do decide to insert Carpenter back into the rotation, who might he replace?

Here are the possibilities:

Jake Westbrook

Despite a 1.62 ERA, Westbrook has been the least dominant starter on the team, with just 4.4 K/9 for the season.  He has also allowed 4.2 BB/9.  His saving grace is that he induces a ton of groundball outs, with a 2.30 GO/AO ratio. 

Westbrook is currently on the DL with an elbow injury, but it is not considered serious.  However, if he has any setbacks, Carpenter could eventually step in for him.

Lance Lynn

Lynn has adjusted well to his new weight.  He has allowed just 33 hits in 50 innings while striking out 54.  It remains to be seen how he holds up over the course of the long season, as the main reason the Cards wanted him to lose the weight was because he struggled in the second half last year. 

If he struggles again during the second half of this year, then I could see Carpenter taking over his rotation spot, with Lynn moving to the bullpen.

Jaime Garcia

Again, there is nothing about the way Garcia is currently pitching that would make one think he should be removed from the starting rotation.  He has a 2.88 ERA and a 38/14 K/BB ratio.  He also has been inducing groundouts at a higher rate than Westbrook, with a 2.86 GO/AO ratio.

However, after a shoulder injury knocked him out during the middle of last year, there are concerns that the shoulder issues could return.  Carpenter would be a logical replacement for him if that should happen.

Prediction

Obviously, there are a lot of "ifs" in the above scenarios, but nothing that currently suggests that any of the above starters should be removed from the rotation.  Even if one of the above scenarios did occur, would the Cardinals take a chance on Carpenter, when his shoulder has not shown the ability to hold up under starting conditions? 

I don't think so.  The more likely scenario is that the Cards will use Carpenter out of the pen, and even then they will treat him with kid gloves (e.g. no back-to-back appearances, no more than one inning at a time).  If a need for a starter arises, John Gast or Michael Wacha would likely get the call.

So, while it would be nice to see Carpenter return as a starter, as he has proven in the past to be a big game pitcher, I just don't see him cracking the current rotation.

Could Kyle Lohse become an option for the Cardinals?

Meet Kyle Lohse - the man without a team.


With Spring Training already underway, there has been absolutely no buzz regarding Lohse signing with a team.  In fact, most of the buzz has been teams denying interest in Lohse.  So far, the Rangers have denied interest, the Rockies are not a fit, the Cubs are not a fit, the Pirates are not interested, the Braves are not interested,  you can count the Phillies out, and the Nationals, Angels, Brewers, Red Sox and Cardinals are all distancing themselves from Lohse.

It seems kinda hard to believe that a pitcher who went 16-3 with a 2.86 ERA last year would have difficulty finding a job.  But, considering he's tied to draft pick compensation and owns a career 4.45 ERA in the majors, you can understand why some teams would hesitate to give him a 3 or 4 year deal.

Despite the loss of Chris Carpenter, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak said he doesn't expect to add starting pitching.  However, could that change if Shelby Miller's shoulder discomfort turns out to be something more serious or if the rookies do not impress during spring games?

With questions already surrounding incumbents Lance Lynn and Jaime Garcia, maybe it would make sense to bring back Lohse on a one-year deal.  Perhaps if the Cards agree not to make a qualifying offer to Lohse after the 2013 season, they could get a significant discount.

In this way, they could improve their pitching depth and help bridge the gap to the youngsters.

Just something for the Cardinals brass to consider as we head to the start of spring games on Saturday.

Cardinals must weigh all options when it comes to Adam Wainwright

First of all, let me say this:  I think the Cardinals will sign Adam Wainwright to an extension and it will likely happen before the start of the 2013 season.  However, I also thought the same thing regarding Albert Pujols.  In fact, I was almost certain the Cardinals and Pujols would come to terms, right up to the point that he signed with the Angles.

I've already taken a look at some of the factors the Cardinals must weigh regarding a possible extension with Wainwright.  So, in the interest of covering all the bases, let's take a look at the Cardinals other options:

Free Agency

If the Cardinals cannot reach an agreement with Wainwright, the most obvious choice they have is to let Adam become a free agent after the 2013 season.  If this were to happen, its likely that the Cards will make Wainwright a qualifying offer, so that they can at least receive draft pick compensation should he sign elsewhere. 

The Cardinals can then let the market determine his price and see if they want to match it.  However, the Cards will have lost their leverage as the only team that can negotiate with him and, as we have seen with Pujols, there is no guarantee that he will resign with the Cardinals. 

This is probably a no-win situation for the Cards as they will either have to pay market rate (or higher, if a team like the Yankees gets involved) in order to keep Wainwright or they will just receive a sandwich pick after the first round of the 2014 draft as compensation.

Trade

As far-fetched as it may seem, trading Wainwright could be the Cardinals best option (short of signing him to an extension, of course).

Despite the fact that teams who acquire a player from another team during a season will not be given draft pick compensation for losing that player to free agency after the season, it did not appear to affect the trade market significantly in 2012.  The Brewers traded Zack Greinke to the Angels for Jean Segura, Johnny Hellweg and Ariel Pena, who were ranked as the Angels #2, #4 and #9 prospects by Baseball America prior to the season.

Wainwright should be able to fetch a similar package of prospects in return and there are probably two scenarios in which the Cardinals would be likely to trade Wainwright:  (1) they enter July more than 10 games back in the Wild Card standings, or, more likely, (2) Rafael Furcal has suffered a season-ending injury and the tandem of Ryan Jackson and Pete Kozma just isn't cutting it at short.

If the Cardinals are desperate for an upgrade at short and they figure they're going to lose Wainwright after the season anyway, why not trade him to a team looking for pitching for a long-term solution at short.  I suggested in a previous article that the Rangers and Cards could possibly match up in a pitching-for-shortstop trade.  While a package like Lance Lynn and someone like Michael Wacha might not be enough to land uber-prospect Jurickson Profar, surely Wainwright would at least net them Profar in return (if not more).


With the loss of Chris Carpenter and the health concerns of Jaime Garcia, the Cardinals will likely do everything they can to lock up Wainwright long-term.  However, if the price gets too high, the Cardinals will have to at least consider the possibility of trading Wainwright at mid-season.

Chris Carpenter likely out for 2013. May retire.

Well, this changes things.

According to  B.J. Rains, GM John Mozeliak said that Chris Carpenter is still experiencing discomfort in his right shoulder and its "very unlikely that he will pitch in 2013."

In addition, Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch is reporting that Carpenter's career is likely over.

If so, it is a sad end to one of the true big game pitchers in Cardinal history.

Carpenter would end his Cardinals career with a 95-44 record (.683 win %) and a 3.07 ERA.  He was also 10-4 in the postseason with the Cards, including 3-0 with a stellar 2.00 ERA in 4 World Series starts.

This might also explain why we have not heard any rumors regarding the Cardinals trading away any of their pitching depth for help at short or second.  What once was a strength is fast becoming an area of concern, especially with questions still surrounding Jaime Garcia's health.

With the loss of Carpenter, it pretty much guarantees that Lance Lynn will be in the starting rotation, with the 5th spot likely coming down to a competition between Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly.  Miller may have an advantage, due to his higher upside that the other two.  But you cannot discount the work that Kelly did in 16 starts last year, nor can you forget about Rosenthal impressive performance in the postseason.

In any case, it certainly should make for an interesting competition this spring and one to definitely keep an eye on. 

Can the Cardinals afford to sign Adam Wainwright to an extension?

Sometime around the start of Spring Training, the Cardinals will be approached by agent Steve Hammond about an extension for pitcher Adam Wainwright.  Here's my analysis of some of the factors that could come into play in the Cardinals decision on Wainwright:

Money

First and foremost is money.  Based on recent signings by Matt Cain (6 years/$127.5 million), Zack Greinke (6 years/$147 million) and Cole Hamels (6 years/$144 million), one can expect that Wainwright will command an annual salary in the $22 to $25 million range (probably closer to $25 million).  Even if you take away the signing bonuses of $5 million for Cain, $12 million for Greinke and $6 million for Hamels, you're still looking at an average annual salary of $20.5 to $23 million.  A pretty hefty sum.

Do the Cardinals have the money to afford that kind of contract?  Well, the Cardinals have 3 players who could become free agents after the 2013 season: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran and Jake Westbrook.  These 3 players are making $12.5 million, $13 million and $8.75 million, respectively.  If the Cards let them walk and replace them with cheaper rookies, such as Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal, then they would have freed up around $33 million of salary.

In addition, Wainwright is making $12 million for 2013, so to get him to $25 million would only take an additional $13 million, leaving the Cards with around $10-15 million to use to fill other holes (after taking into consideration arbitration raises).

So to answer the question in the title of this article, yes the Cardinals can afford to sign Waino to an extension.  However, there is more to the question than just money.

Another thing the Cardinals need to look at is...

Contract Length

Of the 3 pitchers I listed above as comparable contracts, Greinke and Hamels are both 29 and Cain is 28. Wainwright, on the other hand, is 32 and just 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery.  So, although the standard contract length with all three is a 6 year deal, do the Cardinals want to go that long for Wainwright?

If the Cardinals need an example of the risk of signing a 30+ year old to a long term deal, they need to look no further than Chris Carpenter.  Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to a 5 year extension at the age of 31.  Carpenter promptly missed most of the next two seasons due to injury.

Then, as if they hadn't learned their lesson, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to another extension in September 2011, this time for 2 years, and he promptly missed most of 2012 with a shoulder injury.  

Thus, given his age and his recent Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will need to be cautious when discussing the length of any contract extension with Wainwright.  Four years would probably be my limit.  If the Cardinals go beyond 4 years, they could be stuck with a hefty contract for an injured or ineffective pitcher, which would likely hamper their ability to compete (see the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano).


Pitching Depth

With both Carpenter and Westbrook potentially leaving as free agents after the season, the Cardinals need someone to help bridge the gap between them and the new wave of pitchers coming up through the system.  In addition, with questions surrounding Jaime Garcia and his shoulder, the Cardinals need an anchor on top of the staff.

For those reasons, the Cardinals will probably do what they can to try to get an extension done with Wainwright.  Of course, they could always go out and sign a free agent pitcher or trade for a starter to give themselves and experienced pitcher to lead their staff, but Wainwright has one other thing going for him....

History

Who can forget the image of Wainwright, arms raised, after striking out Brandon Inge to end the 2006 World Series.  That image alone makes Wainwright an icon is Cardinals history.  Fans would obviously be upset if the Cardinals couldn't get an extension done, especially so soon after losing another fan favorite, Albert Pujols. 

However, as we learned with Albert Pujols, no one is irreplacable.

The Cardinals have moved on from Pujols and certainly won't think twice about moving on from Wainwright if the asking price or the length of the contract gets to be too much.  We aren't the Yankees and there are limits to the amount of money the team can spend.

Overall, I think it would benefit the Cardinals to sign Wainwright to an extension.  However, I wouldn't go beyond 4 years.  It may take a little more on a per year basis to get him to agree to a shorter deal.  I'm thinking that 4 years and $105 million (which includes a $5-10 million bonus) should do the trick.

Should we worry about the Cardinals inactivity this offseason?

Joe Strauss of the St. Louis Post Dispatch recently wrote an article about the Cardinals inactivity and failure to address concerns.  The two biggest concerns that he raises are the shortstop position, namely do we have a backup plan for Rafael Furcal, and starting pitching.

I can understand the concerns regarding Furcal.  His skills are deteriorating and he has not shown the ability to stay healthy for a full season.  The current backup plan appears to be Pete Kozma, who, despite his strong September and postseason, does not have a strong minor league track record and may be better suited as a utility infielder.  The two of them should be able to hold down the position for this season, but the Cardinals still need to find a long-term solution.

As for the starting pitching, I do not see what all the fuss is about.

Sure, the Cardinals lost their de facto ace in Kyle Lohse.  However, Chris Carpenter should be healthy for the entire season and Adam Wainwright will be one year further removed from his Tommy John surgery and therefore that much closer to returning to his 2010 form.

The main questions are whether Jaime Garcia will be healthy and if Lance Lynn has the proper conditioning to hold up for an entire season in the rotation.  But, even if they are not capable of holding on to their rotation spots for the entire season, its not like the Cardinals are lacking in pitching depth.

Joe Kelly filled in admirably while Lynn was going through a rough patch last season and the Cardinals have top prospects Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Carlos Martinez and Michael Wacha all waiting in the wings.

The Cardinals do not need to go out and sign a free agent pitcher.  As long as they continue to develop their young arms (and sign Wainwright to an extension), their rotation should be set for years to come. 

Remember, this is basically the same team that came within one game of the World Series last year.  Wholesale changes were not necessary.  Given reasonably good health and the minor league depth that the Cardinals have developed, the Cardinals are in good position to contend for the title again.