The Cardinals won the NL Central on their way to the NL championship and their second World Series appearance in the last 3 years before losing to the Red Sox in 6 games. The Cardinals hope to continue that hot streak in 2014.
Key Losses
Carlos Beltran, John Axford, David Freese, Edward Mujica, Jake Westbrook, Fernando Salas
Key Acquisitions
Peter Bourjos, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Ellis
Coming off a NL championship, the Cardinals did not have many holes to fill this offseason. GM John Mozeliak worked quickly to fill those holes, trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta before Thanksgiving. Mo added Mark Ellis in December to complete the 2014 roster.
With the trade of Freese, the Cardinals greatly improved their overall defense. Bourjos is a superior center fielder to Jon Jay and, with Freese gone, Matt Carpenter can move to his more natural third base position while making room at second for Kolten Wong. Thus, with one move, the Cardinals improved their defense at 3 positions.
On the flip side, Peralta is a worse defender that the man he's replacing at short, Pete Kozma, however, the Cardinals are counting on his offense more than making up for that difference.
Besides those moves, the biggest change from 2013 is the loss of Carlos Beltran. He will be replaced in right by Allen Craig, with Matt Adams taking over at first. However, keep an eye on top prospect Oscar Taveras this spring as he could force his way into the Cardinals plans.
Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday will round out the lineup. Molina continues to be a MVP caliber player each year with his offense, defense and leadership, while Holliday just continues to rake.
On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller should make up 4/5ths of the starting rotation. The Cardinals lost free agent Jake Westbrook, who ended up retiring this
offseason, but the team has plenty of options to replace
him.
Jaime Garcia is option number one for the Cards, should he prove to be healthy. There are always concerns regarding pitchers coming off shoulder surgery, but the Cardinals could use a lefty in the rotation.
If he is not ready, then one of Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly or Tyler Lyons could step in. However, it seems more likely that Martinez will work out of the pen, while Kelly serves as the long man and Lyons starts the season at AAA.
In the pen, Trevor Rosenthal will handle the closer duties, after his stellar performance in the postseason. Jason Motte is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will likely start the season on the DL. Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness and Randy Choate will also work in relief.
Overall, with their abundance of young arms and improved offense and defense, the Cardinals should once again be the team to beat this year in the NL Central.
SHAMELESS PLUG
For you followers of this blog and Cardinals fans in general, be sure to check out this year's United Cardinals Bloggers annual "Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms: The 2013 St. Louis Cardinals". In this collection you'll find writing from 17 different Cardinals bloggers (including yours truly), plus a capsule on every player that wore the Birds on the Bat in 2013. Not only that, but you'll get an overall look at what's to come in 2014.
Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms is available as an e-book at the Amazon Kindle store for $2.99. The book can be read on any of the devices in the Kindle family as well as by downloading Amazon's free reading apps for your computer, tablet or smartphone. It may also be read in your browser directly on Amazon.
Showing posts with label 2014 outlook. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 outlook. Show all posts
Monday, February 17, 2014
Friday, February 14, 2014
Pittsburgh Pirates offseason moves and outlook
The Pirates ended years of suffering for the fans with their first winning season and playoff berth since 1992. They were bounced from the playoffs by the Cardinals, but look to take the next step forward in 2014.
Key Losses
Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, John Buck, A.J. Burnett
Key Acquisitions
Edinson Volquez, Chris McGuiness
Byrd, Morneau and Buck were all mid-season acquisitions by the Pirates as they pushed for a playoff spot. The losses of Jones and Morneau create the biggest hole on offense as the Pirates do not have a bonafide replacement on their roster. Gaby Sanchez can fill the short end of a platoon, but the Pirates will hold spring auditions for his counterpart, with recent acquisition Chris McGuiness and prospect Andrew Lambo vying for the spot.
In the outfield, the loss of Byrd means that the Pirates will once again play musical chairs in right field, with Travis Snider, Jose Tabata and possibly Lambo holding down the fort, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is deemed ready. Expect to see Polanco get the call in mid-to-late June.
Beyond that, the Pirates lineup will look very similar to last year, with holdovers Russell Martin (C), Neil Walker (2B), Clint Barmes/Jordy Mercer (SS), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Andrew McCutchen (CF) and Starling Marte (LF) back.
On the pitching side, the Pirates lost A.J. Burnett to free agency. The Pirates may use the $12 million they were willing to pay him to sign another starter (Ubaldo Jimenez is still available), but if they fail, they will head into the season with a dubious collection of starters.
Francisco Liriano will lead the staff and Pirates fans will enjoy seeing what young stud Gerrit Cole can do in a full season. However, beyond that there are questions.
Jeff Locke pitched well last year--for half a season. He posted a 2.15 ERA in the first half of the year, before bottoming out with a 6.12 ERA in the second half. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back.
Locke may face a battle with newly acquired Edinson Volquez for a starting spot. Volquez has always had excellent stuff, but has struggled with his control and consistency. The Pirates are known for taking other teams pitching castoffs and helping them get back on track (Liriano is the latest example). Volquez could be in line for a similar bounce-back year (or he could just be a lost cause).
Charlie Morton pitched well in 2013 (7-4, 3.26 ERA), but spend most of the first half of the season on the D.L. before making his debut on June 13. He logged only 116 innings on the year. The Pirates had enough faith in him to sign him to a 3-year extension, but with a career 4.70 ERA, its a wonder if he deserves it.
Finally, after pitching just 62.2 innings in 2013, due to an elbow injury, Wandy Rodriguez wisely exercised his $13 million option for 2014. He appears to be on track to start the 2014 season healthy, but the team will monitor his progress closely.
Should any of the above starters falter, the Pirates have another young gun in Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings. Blessed with a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve, Taillon could make the same kind of impact on the Pirates 2014 season as Cole did in 2013.
Overall, the Pirates could take a step back in 2014, due to the holes in the rotation and at first base, but with the uncanny ability to get the most out of their pitching retreads and the top rated minor league system, according to Baseball America, they will not fall far and should remain a contender for years to come.
Key Losses
Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, John Buck, A.J. Burnett
Key Acquisitions
Edinson Volquez, Chris McGuiness
Byrd, Morneau and Buck were all mid-season acquisitions by the Pirates as they pushed for a playoff spot. The losses of Jones and Morneau create the biggest hole on offense as the Pirates do not have a bonafide replacement on their roster. Gaby Sanchez can fill the short end of a platoon, but the Pirates will hold spring auditions for his counterpart, with recent acquisition Chris McGuiness and prospect Andrew Lambo vying for the spot.
In the outfield, the loss of Byrd means that the Pirates will once again play musical chairs in right field, with Travis Snider, Jose Tabata and possibly Lambo holding down the fort, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is deemed ready. Expect to see Polanco get the call in mid-to-late June.
Beyond that, the Pirates lineup will look very similar to last year, with holdovers Russell Martin (C), Neil Walker (2B), Clint Barmes/Jordy Mercer (SS), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Andrew McCutchen (CF) and Starling Marte (LF) back.
On the pitching side, the Pirates lost A.J. Burnett to free agency. The Pirates may use the $12 million they were willing to pay him to sign another starter (Ubaldo Jimenez is still available), but if they fail, they will head into the season with a dubious collection of starters.
Francisco Liriano will lead the staff and Pirates fans will enjoy seeing what young stud Gerrit Cole can do in a full season. However, beyond that there are questions.
Jeff Locke pitched well last year--for half a season. He posted a 2.15 ERA in the first half of the year, before bottoming out with a 6.12 ERA in the second half. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back.
Locke may face a battle with newly acquired Edinson Volquez for a starting spot. Volquez has always had excellent stuff, but has struggled with his control and consistency. The Pirates are known for taking other teams pitching castoffs and helping them get back on track (Liriano is the latest example). Volquez could be in line for a similar bounce-back year (or he could just be a lost cause).
Charlie Morton pitched well in 2013 (7-4, 3.26 ERA), but spend most of the first half of the season on the D.L. before making his debut on June 13. He logged only 116 innings on the year. The Pirates had enough faith in him to sign him to a 3-year extension, but with a career 4.70 ERA, its a wonder if he deserves it.
Finally, after pitching just 62.2 innings in 2013, due to an elbow injury, Wandy Rodriguez wisely exercised his $13 million option for 2014. He appears to be on track to start the 2014 season healthy, but the team will monitor his progress closely.
Should any of the above starters falter, the Pirates have another young gun in Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings. Blessed with a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve, Taillon could make the same kind of impact on the Pirates 2014 season as Cole did in 2013.
Overall, the Pirates could take a step back in 2014, due to the holes in the rotation and at first base, but with the uncanny ability to get the most out of their pitching retreads and the top rated minor league system, according to Baseball America, they will not fall far and should remain a contender for years to come.
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Cincinnati Reds offseason moves and outlook
After running away with the division title in 2012, the Reds took a couple steps back in 2013, finishing 3rd behind the Cardinals and Pirates. Although they earned the second Wildcard spot, they were quickly dismissed by the Pirates in the one game playoff.
Key Losses
Shin-Soo Choo, Bronson Arroyo
Key Acquisitions
Jeff Francis, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena
The Reds lost their leadoff hitter and centerfielder, Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a 7-year deal with the Texas Rangers and will likely lose veteran innings-eater Bronson Arroyo as well.
Of the two, Choo will be the hardest to replace. He finished second in the NL with an .423 OBP, behind teammate Joey Votto, and second in runs scored (107) to the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter. He was one of the main reasons the Reds finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored.
Choo's replacement will likely be rookie speedster Billy Hamilton. Hamilton was a September callup in 2013 and managed to steal 13 bases in just 13 games. If he can get on base consistently, 100 stolen bases is not out of the question for him and he set the minor league record for stolen bases with 155 in 2012 to surpass the 145 stolen by Vince Coleman back in 1983.
His minor league numbers (.280/.350/.378) are eerily similar to those of Coleman (.280/.358/.343) and there are questions about his ability to hit after posting a feeble .256/.308/.343 line in AAA. However, Coleman only hit .257/.323/.334 in his final minor league season before stealing 100 bases his first three years in the majors.
One things for sure, Hamilton has game-changing speed and he will be giving pitchers headaches for years to come.
Beyond Hamilton, the Reds are also hoping for a return to health for leftfielder Ryan Ludwick, who played in just 38 games in 2013. Ludwick was a key cog in the Reds' offense in 2012, hitting .275 with 26 homers and 80 rbi's.
Ludwick and Hamilton will be joined in the lineup by perennial All-Star Joey Votto and slugger Jay Bruce, along with veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips and youngsters Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.
On the pitching side, Arroyo will likely be replaced in the starting rotation by Tony Cingrani, who filled in for the injured Johnny Cueto in 2013 and posted a sparkling 2.92 ERA in 104.2 innings.
Cingrani will be joined by holdovers Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Cueto in the rotation, with top prospect Robert Stephenson waiting in the wings in case of injury.
The Reds pitching staff allowed the 4th fewest runs in the NL in 2013 and with the strong starting rotation and with the "Cuban Missile" Arolodis Chapman closing, the Reds will once again have a strong pitching staff.
Overall, the Reds still have the look of contenders in 2014 and should battle the Pirates and Cardinals for the 2014 NL Central crown.
Key Losses
Shin-Soo Choo, Bronson Arroyo
Key Acquisitions
Jeff Francis, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena
The Reds lost their leadoff hitter and centerfielder, Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a 7-year deal with the Texas Rangers and will likely lose veteran innings-eater Bronson Arroyo as well.
Of the two, Choo will be the hardest to replace. He finished second in the NL with an .423 OBP, behind teammate Joey Votto, and second in runs scored (107) to the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter. He was one of the main reasons the Reds finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored.
Choo's replacement will likely be rookie speedster Billy Hamilton. Hamilton was a September callup in 2013 and managed to steal 13 bases in just 13 games. If he can get on base consistently, 100 stolen bases is not out of the question for him and he set the minor league record for stolen bases with 155 in 2012 to surpass the 145 stolen by Vince Coleman back in 1983.
His minor league numbers (.280/.350/.378) are eerily similar to those of Coleman (.280/.358/.343) and there are questions about his ability to hit after posting a feeble .256/.308/.343 line in AAA. However, Coleman only hit .257/.323/.334 in his final minor league season before stealing 100 bases his first three years in the majors.
One things for sure, Hamilton has game-changing speed and he will be giving pitchers headaches for years to come.
Beyond Hamilton, the Reds are also hoping for a return to health for leftfielder Ryan Ludwick, who played in just 38 games in 2013. Ludwick was a key cog in the Reds' offense in 2012, hitting .275 with 26 homers and 80 rbi's.
Ludwick and Hamilton will be joined in the lineup by perennial All-Star Joey Votto and slugger Jay Bruce, along with veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips and youngsters Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.
On the pitching side, Arroyo will likely be replaced in the starting rotation by Tony Cingrani, who filled in for the injured Johnny Cueto in 2013 and posted a sparkling 2.92 ERA in 104.2 innings.
Cingrani will be joined by holdovers Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Cueto in the rotation, with top prospect Robert Stephenson waiting in the wings in case of injury.
The Reds pitching staff allowed the 4th fewest runs in the NL in 2013 and with the strong starting rotation and with the "Cuban Missile" Arolodis Chapman closing, the Reds will once again have a strong pitching staff.
Overall, the Reds still have the look of contenders in 2014 and should battle the Pirates and Cardinals for the 2014 NL Central crown.
Tuesday, January 28, 2014
Milwaukee Brewers offseason moves and outlook
The Brewers continued their slide in the standings in 2013. After winning the division in 2011, they fell to 3rd in 2012 before finishing 4th in 2011. The only thing keeping them out of the NL Central basement was the woeful Cubs.
Here's a look at what they did this offseason to try to prevent further slippage:
Key Losses
Norichika Aoki, Corey Hart
Key Acquisitions
Matt Garza, Will Smith, Mark Reynolds, Zach Duke
The Brewers recent addition of Matt Garza helps improve a starting rotation that finished 11th among NL starters. Holdovers Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta will round out the rotation. The keys for the Brewers are the health of Garza and Estrada and improvement from Gallardo and Peralta.
In the pen, journeyman Jim Henderson returns as closer with Brandon Kintzler as the likely setup man. Beyond that, its anybody's guess who will round out the pen, which is in a state of flux after the departures of former closer John Axford and middle reliever Burke Badenhop.
On the offensive side, the team will get a boost from the return of Ryan Braun from his PED suspension. However, they will need more than that to bolster an offense that finished 8th in the NL in runs scored.
The biggest hole from last season was first base, where the Brewers finished last in the NL in OPS (.629). Mark Reynolds was brought aboard on a minor league deal to battle Juan Francisco for the starting job, but neither one is a long-term answer.
Also unsettled is the second base job, which has been held by Rickie Weeks for the last 9 years (when healthy). However, after a disappointing 2013 season, in which he posted the lowest average (.209) and OPS (.663) of his career, he will be pushed by youngster Scooter Gennett, who hit a robust .324/.356/.479 in 2013 (in 213 at bats).
In the outfield, Kris Davis will take over for the departed Norchika Aoki and provides a more typical power profile befitting of a corner outfielder. The rest of the lineup is set with Jonathan Lucroy catching, Jean Segura at short, Aramis Ramirez at third and Carlos Gomes in center.
Overall, the hitting should improve and the pitching will likely improve as well, but I don't think its enough to push the Brewers into the upper division. They should be a .500 team and could push the Reds for third place, but are unlikely to battle for the division crown.
Here's a look at what they did this offseason to try to prevent further slippage:
Key Losses
Norichika Aoki, Corey Hart
Key Acquisitions
Matt Garza, Will Smith, Mark Reynolds, Zach Duke
The Brewers recent addition of Matt Garza helps improve a starting rotation that finished 11th among NL starters. Holdovers Yovani Gallardo, Kyle Lohse, Marco Estrada and Wily Peralta will round out the rotation. The keys for the Brewers are the health of Garza and Estrada and improvement from Gallardo and Peralta.
In the pen, journeyman Jim Henderson returns as closer with Brandon Kintzler as the likely setup man. Beyond that, its anybody's guess who will round out the pen, which is in a state of flux after the departures of former closer John Axford and middle reliever Burke Badenhop.
On the offensive side, the team will get a boost from the return of Ryan Braun from his PED suspension. However, they will need more than that to bolster an offense that finished 8th in the NL in runs scored.
The biggest hole from last season was first base, where the Brewers finished last in the NL in OPS (.629). Mark Reynolds was brought aboard on a minor league deal to battle Juan Francisco for the starting job, but neither one is a long-term answer.
Also unsettled is the second base job, which has been held by Rickie Weeks for the last 9 years (when healthy). However, after a disappointing 2013 season, in which he posted the lowest average (.209) and OPS (.663) of his career, he will be pushed by youngster Scooter Gennett, who hit a robust .324/.356/.479 in 2013 (in 213 at bats).
In the outfield, Kris Davis will take over for the departed Norchika Aoki and provides a more typical power profile befitting of a corner outfielder. The rest of the lineup is set with Jonathan Lucroy catching, Jean Segura at short, Aramis Ramirez at third and Carlos Gomes in center.
Overall, the hitting should improve and the pitching will likely improve as well, but I don't think its enough to push the Brewers into the upper division. They should be a .500 team and could push the Reds for third place, but are unlikely to battle for the division crown.
Wednesday, January 22, 2014
Chicago Cubs offseason moves and outlook
Over the next few weeks I'm going to take a look at the offseason moves of each of the NL Central teams and their 2014 outlook, starting from the bottom up and finishing with the Cardinals on or around the start of Spring Training.
Thus, today I start with the Chicago Cubs.
Key Losses
Scott Feldman, Scott Baker, Kevin Gregg, Dioner Navarro
Key Acquisitions
Tsuyoshi Wada, Wesley Wright, Jose Veras, Justin Ruggiano
Analysis
The Cubs continued their rebuilding plan this offseason, making no big splashes. Although they did make a run at Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, reportedly offering more than any other team, Tanaka ended up signing with the Yankees.
If its any consolation for Cubs fans, they did sign another Japanese player in Wada, who came over to the states in 2012, but did not pitch in the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Wada won 107 games with a 3.13 ERA in his 9 seasons in Japan, including a 16-5 record with a 1.51 ERA in his final season in 2011. He is the epitome of the buy low players the Cubs have focused on in recent years.
The Cubs also picked up center fielder Ruggiano in a trade with the Marlins as well as a couple relievers in Wright and Veras. Veras could compete with holdover Pedro Strop for the closer role, while Ruggiano should be the Cubs starting center fielder in 2014.
Despite the lack of moves by the Cubs, things are still looking up for them as many of their top prospects are on the cusp on joining the big club.
Top prospect Javier Baez clubbed 37 homers between high A and AA last year. Third baseman Kris Bryant, who was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, should not be long for the minors after hitting .336 with 9 homers in just 128 at bats in his debut.
Pitcher C.J. Edwards, acquired from the Rangers in the Matt Garza trade last summer, has been downright dominant in his brief minor league career, posting a 1.72 ERA in 183.1 innings.
Add in top outfield prospects Albert Almora and Jorge Soler, and the Cubs have the makings of a strong nucleus of players to build a championship caliber team around.
Overall, I don't look for the Cubs to contend in 2014, as most of their top prospects are probably at least a year away, but if the team has bounce-back years from youngsters like Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo and can patch together a decent rotation, they could push for a .500 record.
Thus, today I start with the Chicago Cubs.
Key Losses
Scott Feldman, Scott Baker, Kevin Gregg, Dioner Navarro
Key Acquisitions
Tsuyoshi Wada, Wesley Wright, Jose Veras, Justin Ruggiano
Analysis
The Cubs continued their rebuilding plan this offseason, making no big splashes. Although they did make a run at Japanese pitcher Masahiro Tanaka, reportedly offering more than any other team, Tanaka ended up signing with the Yankees.
If its any consolation for Cubs fans, they did sign another Japanese player in Wada, who came over to the states in 2012, but did not pitch in the majors after undergoing Tommy John surgery. Wada won 107 games with a 3.13 ERA in his 9 seasons in Japan, including a 16-5 record with a 1.51 ERA in his final season in 2011. He is the epitome of the buy low players the Cubs have focused on in recent years.
The Cubs also picked up center fielder Ruggiano in a trade with the Marlins as well as a couple relievers in Wright and Veras. Veras could compete with holdover Pedro Strop for the closer role, while Ruggiano should be the Cubs starting center fielder in 2014.
Despite the lack of moves by the Cubs, things are still looking up for them as many of their top prospects are on the cusp on joining the big club.
Top prospect Javier Baez clubbed 37 homers between high A and AA last year. Third baseman Kris Bryant, who was selected in the first round of the 2013 draft, should not be long for the minors after hitting .336 with 9 homers in just 128 at bats in his debut.
Pitcher C.J. Edwards, acquired from the Rangers in the Matt Garza trade last summer, has been downright dominant in his brief minor league career, posting a 1.72 ERA in 183.1 innings.
Add in top outfield prospects Albert Almora and Jorge Soler, and the Cubs have the makings of a strong nucleus of players to build a championship caliber team around.
Overall, I don't look for the Cubs to contend in 2014, as most of their top prospects are probably at least a year away, but if the team has bounce-back years from youngsters like Starlin Castro and Anthony Rizzo and can patch together a decent rotation, they could push for a .500 record.
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