After running away with the division title in 2012, the Reds took a couple steps back in 2013, finishing 3rd behind the Cardinals and Pirates. Although they earned the second Wildcard spot, they were quickly dismissed by the Pirates in the one game playoff.
Key Losses
Shin-Soo Choo, Bronson Arroyo
Key Acquisitions
Jeff Francis, Skip Schumaker, Brayan Pena
The Reds lost their leadoff hitter and centerfielder, Shin-Soo Choo, who signed a 7-year deal with the Texas Rangers and will likely lose veteran innings-eater Bronson Arroyo as well.
Of the two, Choo will be the hardest to replace. He finished second in the NL with an .423 OBP, behind teammate Joey Votto, and second in runs scored (107) to the Cardinals' Matt Carpenter. He was one of the main reasons the Reds finished 3rd in the NL in runs scored.
Choo's replacement will likely be rookie speedster Billy Hamilton. Hamilton was a September callup in 2013 and managed to steal 13 bases in just 13 games. If he can get on base consistently, 100 stolen bases is not out of the question for him and he set the minor league record for stolen bases with 155 in 2012 to surpass the 145 stolen by Vince Coleman back in 1983.
His minor league numbers (.280/.350/.378) are eerily similar to those of Coleman (.280/.358/.343) and there are questions about his ability to hit after posting a feeble .256/.308/.343 line in AAA. However, Coleman only hit .257/.323/.334 in his final minor league season before stealing 100 bases his first three years in the majors.
One things for sure, Hamilton has game-changing speed and he will be giving pitchers headaches for years to come.
Beyond Hamilton, the Reds are also hoping for a return to health for leftfielder Ryan Ludwick, who played in just 38 games in 2013. Ludwick was a key cog in the Reds' offense in 2012, hitting .275 with 26 homers and 80 rbi's.
Ludwick and Hamilton will be joined in the lineup by perennial All-Star Joey Votto and slugger Jay Bruce, along with veteran second baseman Brandon Phillips and youngsters Zack Cozart, Todd Frazier and Devin Mesoraco.
On the pitching side, Arroyo will likely be replaced in the starting rotation by Tony Cingrani, who filled in for the injured Johnny Cueto in 2013 and posted a sparkling 2.92 ERA in 104.2 innings.
Cingrani will be joined by holdovers Homer Bailey, Mat Latos, Mike Leake and Cueto in the rotation, with top prospect Robert Stephenson waiting in the wings in case of injury.
The Reds pitching staff allowed the 4th fewest runs in the NL in 2013 and with the strong starting rotation and with the "Cuban Missile" Arolodis Chapman closing, the Reds will once again have a strong pitching staff.
Overall, the Reds still have the look of contenders in 2014 and should battle the Pirates and Cardinals for the 2014 NL Central crown.
Showing posts with label Cincinnati Reds. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Cincinnati Reds. Show all posts
Thursday, February 6, 2014
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
CFCL Bold Predictions: NL Central
Continuing the United Cardinals Bloggers March project, today I'll take a look at the NL Central or the only division that matters. All of my fellow Cardinals bloggers will be making their predictions as well and you can follow them at the UCB website.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago Cubs
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
Wednesday, February 13, 2013
Did the Cardinals lose ground due to their inactivity this offseason?
If you follow the Hot Stove League, like I do, you are probably quite aware of the Cardinals offseason moves (or lack thereof). A while back, Joe Strauss expressed his concerns about the lack of moves by the Cards and, with other teams making significant moves to improve their rosters, it begs the question as to whether the Cardinals have lost ground to the other contenders for the NL crown.
Here's a look at the contenders in the NL and their offseason moves (to date):
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals lost Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman (who missed most of the 2012 season) to free agency and recently lost Chris Carpenter to injury.
Carpenter also missed most of the 2012 season to injury, so that's a wash. Berkman was replaced at first by Allen Craig, who will be healthy to start the 2013 season. So the only real whole that the Cardinals need to fill is that of Lohse, who will be replaced in the rotation by one of Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly or Trevor Rosenthal. You can expect a bit of a downgrade there, but otherwise, they are not losing much.
As for the offense, it should be clicking on all cylinders and I can easily see it surpassing last year's run total of 765 (2nd in the NL).
Overall, the Cardinals should be just as good, if not slightly better than last year's team.
Atlanta Braves
The Cardinals Wild Card opponent brought in the Upton brothers to replace Michael Bourn and Martin Prado in the outfield and will use a platoon of recently acquired Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco to replace the retired Chipper Jones. Overall, the Uptons should be an upgrade in the outfield and help make up for the loss of Jones.
On the pitching side, the Braves improved their bullpen by trading Tommy Hanson for Jordan Walden. Their starting rotation is strong at the top, with Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson and Mike Minor leading the way, but questions abound after that. Will top prospect Julio Teheran be able to fill the void left by Hanson? Who will fill Brandon Beachy's spot while he recovers from Tommy John surgery?
The Braves may have improved their offense, but their pitching is still suspect.
Cincinnati Reds
The 2012 NL Central champs upgraded their offense by trading Drew Stubbs (and others) for Shin-Soo Choo. However, their defense may take a little hit as they are asking Choo to play center, a position he's only played 10 times in his major league career.
On the pitching side, the Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to be the closer and allow them to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation. As a Cardinal fan, I much prefer Chapman as the closer, as then we only would see him for at most one inning per game. In any case, adding Chapman to the rotation (to replace Mike Leake) is a definite upgrade, which would offset the downgrade at the closer position.
Overall, the Reds have improved, but not significantly.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers actually started their rebuilding last summer when they acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford from the Red Sox, as well as Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins. Having a full season of those players should give the Dodgers offense a boost.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers made a big splash by signing Zack Greinke as well as Korean starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. Along with holdovers Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett (acquired last summer from the Red Sox), Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang, the Dodgers certainly have pitching depth and will likely trade 1-2 of their starters to fill other needs. In addition, the Dodgers signed Brandon League to serve as their closer, with last year's close, Kenley Jansen serving as his set up man.
Overall, the Dodgers have spent freely since new ownership took over and should be an improved team (on paper at least).
Washington Nationals
The Nats had the best record in the NL last year before falling to the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any team could stand pat, the Nats certainly could. However, they went out and traded for Denard Span to play center field, while parting with Michael Morse (for a prospect). This should improve their outfield defense while having minimal impact on their offense.
On the pitching side, Washington parted ways with free agent Edwin Jackson but replaced him with Dan Haren. Then, never satisfied, they signed closer Rafael Soriano to improve an already excellent bullpen. However, the most important change on the pitching side is that Stephen Strasburg will not be on an innings limit this year.
Overall, the Nats made a really good team even better this offseason and will likely be the team to beat in the NL.
San Francisco Giants
The reigning World Series champions resigned Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro on offense, but let Melky Cabrera (and his PEDs) walk. Cabrera will be hard to replace for a team that has struggled on offense in the past.
On the pitching side, the Giants didn't do much, bringing back reliever Jeremy Affeldt, while letting Brian Wilson (and his beard) leave via free agency after his missed nearly all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery. However, when you already have one of the best pitching staffs in the NL, you don't need to do much.
Overall, the Giants will continue to contend, if only because of their pitching.
Looking at the NL as a whole, the Cardinals may have lost some ground against the Nationals and the Dodgers, while the other contenders have stayed about the same. Could the Cardinals have done more to improve their team. Yes, probably. But with the majors top farm system and a new philosophy of building from within, the Cardinals chose to stand pat.
Here's a look at the contenders in the NL and their offseason moves (to date):
St. Louis Cardinals
The Cardinals lost Kyle Lohse and Lance Berkman (who missed most of the 2012 season) to free agency and recently lost Chris Carpenter to injury.
Carpenter also missed most of the 2012 season to injury, so that's a wash. Berkman was replaced at first by Allen Craig, who will be healthy to start the 2013 season. So the only real whole that the Cardinals need to fill is that of Lohse, who will be replaced in the rotation by one of Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly or Trevor Rosenthal. You can expect a bit of a downgrade there, but otherwise, they are not losing much.
As for the offense, it should be clicking on all cylinders and I can easily see it surpassing last year's run total of 765 (2nd in the NL).
Overall, the Cardinals should be just as good, if not slightly better than last year's team.
Atlanta Braves
The Cardinals Wild Card opponent brought in the Upton brothers to replace Michael Bourn and Martin Prado in the outfield and will use a platoon of recently acquired Chris Johnson and Juan Francisco to replace the retired Chipper Jones. Overall, the Uptons should be an upgrade in the outfield and help make up for the loss of Jones.
On the pitching side, the Braves improved their bullpen by trading Tommy Hanson for Jordan Walden. Their starting rotation is strong at the top, with Kris Medlen, Tim Hudson and Mike Minor leading the way, but questions abound after that. Will top prospect Julio Teheran be able to fill the void left by Hanson? Who will fill Brandon Beachy's spot while he recovers from Tommy John surgery?
The Braves may have improved their offense, but their pitching is still suspect.
Cincinnati Reds
The 2012 NL Central champs upgraded their offense by trading Drew Stubbs (and others) for Shin-Soo Choo. However, their defense may take a little hit as they are asking Choo to play center, a position he's only played 10 times in his major league career.
On the pitching side, the Reds signed Jonathan Broxton to be the closer and allow them to move Aroldis Chapman into the rotation. As a Cardinal fan, I much prefer Chapman as the closer, as then we only would see him for at most one inning per game. In any case, adding Chapman to the rotation (to replace Mike Leake) is a definite upgrade, which would offset the downgrade at the closer position.
Overall, the Reds have improved, but not significantly.
Los Angeles Dodgers
The Dodgers actually started their rebuilding last summer when they acquired Adrian Gonzalez and Carl Crawford from the Red Sox, as well as Hanley Ramirez from the Marlins. Having a full season of those players should give the Dodgers offense a boost.
On the pitching side, the Dodgers made a big splash by signing Zack Greinke as well as Korean starter Hyun-Jin Ryu. Along with holdovers Clayton Kershaw, Josh Beckett (acquired last summer from the Red Sox), Chris Capuano, Chad Billingsley, Ted Lilly and Aaron Harang, the Dodgers certainly have pitching depth and will likely trade 1-2 of their starters to fill other needs. In addition, the Dodgers signed Brandon League to serve as their closer, with last year's close, Kenley Jansen serving as his set up man.
Overall, the Dodgers have spent freely since new ownership took over and should be an improved team (on paper at least).
Washington Nationals
The Nats had the best record in the NL last year before falling to the Cardinals in the NLDS. If any team could stand pat, the Nats certainly could. However, they went out and traded for Denard Span to play center field, while parting with Michael Morse (for a prospect). This should improve their outfield defense while having minimal impact on their offense.
On the pitching side, Washington parted ways with free agent Edwin Jackson but replaced him with Dan Haren. Then, never satisfied, they signed closer Rafael Soriano to improve an already excellent bullpen. However, the most important change on the pitching side is that Stephen Strasburg will not be on an innings limit this year.
Overall, the Nats made a really good team even better this offseason and will likely be the team to beat in the NL.
San Francisco Giants
The reigning World Series champions resigned Angel Pagan and Marco Scutaro on offense, but let Melky Cabrera (and his PEDs) walk. Cabrera will be hard to replace for a team that has struggled on offense in the past.
On the pitching side, the Giants didn't do much, bringing back reliever Jeremy Affeldt, while letting Brian Wilson (and his beard) leave via free agency after his missed nearly all of 2012 with Tommy John surgery. However, when you already have one of the best pitching staffs in the NL, you don't need to do much.
Overall, the Giants will continue to contend, if only because of their pitching.
Looking at the NL as a whole, the Cardinals may have lost some ground against the Nationals and the Dodgers, while the other contenders have stayed about the same. Could the Cardinals have done more to improve their team. Yes, probably. But with the majors top farm system and a new philosophy of building from within, the Cardinals chose to stand pat.
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