The Pirates ended years of suffering for the fans with their first winning season and playoff berth since 1992. They were bounced from the playoffs by the Cardinals, but look to take the next step forward in 2014.
Key Losses
Marlon Byrd, Justin Morneau, Garrett Jones, John Buck, A.J. Burnett
Key Acquisitions
Edinson Volquez, Chris McGuiness
Byrd, Morneau and Buck were all mid-season acquisitions by the Pirates as they pushed for a playoff spot. The losses of Jones and Morneau create the biggest hole on offense as the Pirates do not have a bonafide replacement on their roster. Gaby Sanchez can fill the short end of a platoon, but the Pirates will hold spring auditions for his counterpart, with recent acquisition Chris McGuiness and prospect Andrew Lambo vying for the spot.
In the outfield, the loss of Byrd means that the Pirates will once again play musical chairs in right field, with Travis Snider, Jose Tabata and possibly Lambo holding down the fort, at least until top prospect Gregory Polanco is deemed ready. Expect to see Polanco get the call in mid-to-late June.
Beyond that, the Pirates lineup will look very similar to last year, with holdovers Russell Martin (C), Neil Walker (2B), Clint Barmes/Jordy Mercer (SS), Pedro Alvarez (3B), Andrew McCutchen (CF) and Starling Marte (LF) back.
On the pitching side, the Pirates lost A.J. Burnett to free agency. The Pirates may use the $12 million they were willing to pay him to sign another starter (Ubaldo Jimenez is still available), but if they fail, they will head into the season with a dubious collection of starters.
Francisco Liriano will lead the staff and Pirates fans will enjoy seeing what young stud Gerrit Cole can do in a full season. However, beyond that there are questions.
Jeff Locke pitched well last year--for half a season. He posted a 2.15 ERA in the first half of the year, before bottoming out with a 6.12 ERA in the second half. It remains to be seen if he can bounce back.
Locke may face a battle with newly acquired Edinson Volquez for a starting spot. Volquez has always had excellent stuff, but has struggled with his control and consistency. The Pirates are known for taking other teams pitching castoffs and helping them get back on track (Liriano is the latest example). Volquez could be in line for a similar bounce-back year (or he could just be a lost cause).
Charlie Morton pitched well in 2013 (7-4, 3.26 ERA), but spend most of the first half of the season on the D.L. before making his debut on June 13. He logged only 116 innings on the year. The Pirates had enough faith in him to sign him to a 3-year extension, but with a career 4.70 ERA, its a wonder if he deserves it.
Finally, after pitching just 62.2 innings in 2013, due to an elbow injury, Wandy Rodriguez wisely exercised his $13 million option for 2014. He appears to be on track to start the 2014 season healthy, but the team will monitor his progress closely.
Should any of the above starters falter, the Pirates have another young gun in Jameson Taillon waiting in the wings. Blessed with a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve, Taillon could make the same kind of impact on the Pirates 2014 season as Cole did in 2013.
Overall, the Pirates could take a step back in 2014, due to the holes in the rotation and at first base, but with the uncanny ability to get the most out of their pitching retreads and the top rated minor league system, according to Baseball America, they will not fall far and should remain a contender for years to come.
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Pirates. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Pittsburgh Pirates. Show all posts
Friday, February 14, 2014
Wednesday, October 2, 2013
CFCL NLDS Preview - Cardinals vs Pirates
After dispatching Dusty Baker and the Reds last night, the Pirates head into St. Louis to take on the Cardinals in the NLDS. I won't lie, the Pirates make me nervous, as the Cards were only 9-10 against them this season. However, the Cardinals do have home field advantage and were 6-3 at home against the Buccos. In addition, the Cards have some momentum, having won 4 out of the last 5 games.
Here's a look at the matchups between the two teams:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Russ Martin
Molina hit .319/.359/.477 on the year with 12 homers and 89 rbis. He is also considered one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in baseball.
Martin hit .226/.327/.377 with 15 homers and 55 rbis. He is no slouch defensively, throwing out 40% of basestealers (Molina threw out 43%), but he is no Molina either.
Molina is an MVP candidate and is by far the better player.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Justin Morneau
Adams has been on fire since Allen Craig went down with an injury. He hit .283/.335/.503 on the year with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, and turned up the heat in September to the tune of .315/.344/.609 with 8 homers. If he can carryover the late season success into October, he can be a valuable cog in the Cardinals offense.
Morneau is entering the twilight of his career. At 32, he MVP caliber days are gone, but he should not be overlooked either. He hit .259/.323/.411 on the season with 17 homers, but just .260/.370/.312 with no homers after being acquired by the Pirates.
This is a tough call. Adams had a better season, in limited action, but Morneau has more experience in playoff situations. I'll just go with my heart here.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Neil Walker
Carpenter had a stellar year in his first full season with the Cardinals, hitting .318/.392/.481. He led the league with 199 hits, 55 doubles and 126 runs scored. He may not be the best fielding second baseman in the league, but he's at least above average.
Walker had an average season with the Pirates, hitting .251/.339/.418 with 16 homers. He flashed some power in September, hitting 7 homers, but his average suffered (.207 for the month).
This is a pretty easy call, Carpenter is also in the MVP discussion. Walker, while better than average, just doesn't match up.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Daniel Descalso/Pete Kozma vs Jordy Mercer/Clint Barmes
While Kozma and Barmes started off as the starting shortstops for their respective teams, Descalso and Mercer got more starts down the stretch. Kozma (.217/.275/.273) and Barmes (.211/.249/.309) are known more for their defense, while Descalso (.238/.290/.366) and Mercer (.285/.336/.435) were used when their teams were looking for a little more offense.
Neither tandem is very inspiring, but I think the Bucs have a better platoon pair.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Third Base: David Freese vs Pedro Alvarez
Freese is a World Series hero and local boy made good, but his mediocre season (.262/.340/.381) nearly cost him his job. His 9 homers on the year, after hitting 20 last season, also were a disappointment.
Alvarez, on the other hand, set a career mark with 36 home runs, leading the NL, while also driving in 100. However, he strikes out a ton, leading the league with 186 K's, leading to just a .233 average.
Alvarez' power gives him an advantage over hometown hero Freese.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Starling Marte
He may be on the wrong side of 30, but Holliday keeps putting up impressive numbers, hitting .300/.389/.490 on the year with 22 homers and 94 rbis.
Marte does not have your typical power for a corner outfielder, hitting just 12 home runs on the year, but he does have a lot of speed, stealing 41 bases. He also hit pretty well in his first full season, with a .280/.343/.441 slash line.
Holliday's bat outweighs Marte's speed and defense, giving him the slight edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andrew McCutchen
Jay bounced back from a slow start to finish the season with a .276/.351/.370 line. He doesn't offer much power or speed, but plays solid defense and is a good all around player.
McCutchen is the Pirates MVP candidate, with a .317/.404/.508 line to go along with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He is arguably the best all around player on either team.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Marlon Byrd
Beltran season is a tale of two halves. He hit .309/.346/.533 with 19 home runs in the first half, but just .277/.329/.429 with 5 home runs in the second half, including a .217/.320/.313 line in September. However, he thrives in the postseason, with a career .363/.470/.782 line in the playoffs, including a .357/.440/.714 line last year with the Cardinals.
Byrd had a nice comeback year, hitting .291/.336/.511, including .318/.357/.486 after being acquired from the Mets. His 24 home runs this year are a career high. However, this will be the first postseason of his career.
Beltran experience and reputation for taking it up a notch in October gives him the edge over the likely NL comeback player of the year.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
Cardinals projected starters Adam Wainwright (1-0, 3.00 ERA), Lance Lynn (2-1, 5.60), Shelby Miller (0-4, 5.32) and Joe Kelly (3-1, 2.53) have had mixed results against the Pirates. Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 9 IP) is another option for the Cards. Wainwright and Lynn are scheduled to pitch the first two games against the Bucs, beyond that its anyone's guess as to who goes.
The Pirates have A.J. Burnett (3-1, 3.67 ERA against the Cards) lined up for the first game of the series, with Pedro Liriano (3-0, 0.75 ERA), likely to pitch the third game, after shutting down the Reds last night. Beyond those two, Charlie Morton (0-2, 7.90 ERA), Jeff Locke (1-1, 3.38) and Gerritt Cole (no record) are the other options against the Redbirds.
The good news for Cardinals fans is that the team will only have to face Liriano, who has dominated the Cards this year, once this series. It will also be interesting to see if Clint Hurdle will use Locke against the Cards, who have struggled against lefties all year. Locke has struggled in the second half (2-5, 6.00 ERA) and Hurdle may not trust him in the playoffs.
Another factor may be each team's rookie starters, Wacha and Cole. Both performed well down the stretch and could be given a start. However, managers tend to shy away from rookies in pressure situations.
Overall, this is almost too close to call, but I think I have to give the edge to the Pirates, mainly due to their top 2 starters Liriano and Burnett.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bullpen
Edward Mujica, who was the Cardinals closer for the majority of the season, was removed from that role in September, due to "general fatigue" (and, as a result, general ineffectiveness). Trevor Rosenthal stepped up and earned 3 saves during the last couple weeks of the season and will likely fill the closer role in the postseason.
Mujica uncertain status, puts pressure on a bullpen that has already seen its share of ups-and-downs this season. Seth Maness has done well in a setup role and the Cardinals have two quality lefties in Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist. Carlos Martinez could be pushed into a setup role as well.
The Pirates had their own injury concerns with their closer, Jason Grilli, after he missed a little over a month with a forearm strain. Mark Melancon filled in admirably in his absence, but their bullpen is much better with Grilli manning the closing duties. The Pirates bullpen also has a couple quality lefties in Justin Wilson and Tony Watson to counter the Cards lefty combo.
Overall, the Pirates bullpen fared better than the Cardinals during the season, posting a 2.89 ERA versus 3.45 for the Cards. That, combined with the uncertainty surrounding Mujica gives the Pirates the edge.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bench
With Allen Craig out, the Cardinals biggest bat off the bench, Matt Adams, has shifted to a starting role, leaving the Cards bench pretty barren. Shane Robinson provides some speed and the Cardinals will also have either Kozma or Descalso on the bench, depending on who's starting. But after that, its unclear who will even make the roster, let alone provide some sort of offense.
The Pirates actually strengthened their bench by acquiring Morneau and Byrd, pushing former starters Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata to reserve roles. Add in Gabby Sanchez and Travis Snider and the Pirates have a good mix of power and speed, as well as lefty/righty on their bench.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Intangibles
The Cardinals will be appearing in their 3rd straight postseason, while the Pirates will be making their first appearance since 1992.
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny will be making his second straight postseason appearance, but this is just his second year as a major league manager. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made the postseason twice with the Rockies and this is his first appearance with the Pirates. Hurdle has 11 years of managerial experience.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they have gone 54-27 this season.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
Based on the above, the teams are tied 6-6, indicating that I believe this will be a close series. Basically, I believe the Pirates have a better pitching staff, while the Cards have a better offense. Generally they say that good pitching beats good hitting, but I think that the Cardinals postseason experience and home field advantage will help them edge the Pirates in the end.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 5
Here's a look at the matchups between the two teams:
Catcher: Yadier Molina vs Russ Martin
Molina hit .319/.359/.477 on the year with 12 homers and 89 rbis. He is also considered one of, if not the, best defensive catcher in baseball.
Martin hit .226/.327/.377 with 15 homers and 55 rbis. He is no slouch defensively, throwing out 40% of basestealers (Molina threw out 43%), but he is no Molina either.
Molina is an MVP candidate and is by far the better player.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
First Base: Matt Adams vs Justin Morneau
Adams has been on fire since Allen Craig went down with an injury. He hit .283/.335/.503 on the year with 17 homers in just 296 at bats, and turned up the heat in September to the tune of .315/.344/.609 with 8 homers. If he can carryover the late season success into October, he can be a valuable cog in the Cardinals offense.
Morneau is entering the twilight of his career. At 32, he MVP caliber days are gone, but he should not be overlooked either. He hit .259/.323/.411 on the season with 17 homers, but just .260/.370/.312 with no homers after being acquired by the Pirates.
This is a tough call. Adams had a better season, in limited action, but Morneau has more experience in playoff situations. I'll just go with my heart here.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Second Base: Matt Carpenter vs Neil Walker
Carpenter had a stellar year in his first full season with the Cardinals, hitting .318/.392/.481. He led the league with 199 hits, 55 doubles and 126 runs scored. He may not be the best fielding second baseman in the league, but he's at least above average.
Walker had an average season with the Pirates, hitting .251/.339/.418 with 16 homers. He flashed some power in September, hitting 7 homers, but his average suffered (.207 for the month).
This is a pretty easy call, Carpenter is also in the MVP discussion. Walker, while better than average, just doesn't match up.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Shortstop: Daniel Descalso/Pete Kozma vs Jordy Mercer/Clint Barmes
While Kozma and Barmes started off as the starting shortstops for their respective teams, Descalso and Mercer got more starts down the stretch. Kozma (.217/.275/.273) and Barmes (.211/.249/.309) are known more for their defense, while Descalso (.238/.290/.366) and Mercer (.285/.336/.435) were used when their teams were looking for a little more offense.
Neither tandem is very inspiring, but I think the Bucs have a better platoon pair.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Third Base: David Freese vs Pedro Alvarez
Freese is a World Series hero and local boy made good, but his mediocre season (.262/.340/.381) nearly cost him his job. His 9 homers on the year, after hitting 20 last season, also were a disappointment.
Alvarez, on the other hand, set a career mark with 36 home runs, leading the NL, while also driving in 100. However, he strikes out a ton, leading the league with 186 K's, leading to just a .233 average.
Alvarez' power gives him an advantage over hometown hero Freese.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Left Field: Matt Holliday vs Starling Marte
He may be on the wrong side of 30, but Holliday keeps putting up impressive numbers, hitting .300/.389/.490 on the year with 22 homers and 94 rbis.
Marte does not have your typical power for a corner outfielder, hitting just 12 home runs on the year, but he does have a lot of speed, stealing 41 bases. He also hit pretty well in his first full season, with a .280/.343/.441 slash line.
Holliday's bat outweighs Marte's speed and defense, giving him the slight edge.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Center Field: John Jay vs Andrew McCutchen
Jay bounced back from a slow start to finish the season with a .276/.351/.370 line. He doesn't offer much power or speed, but plays solid defense and is a good all around player.
McCutchen is the Pirates MVP candidate, with a .317/.404/.508 line to go along with 21 home runs and 27 stolen bases. He is arguably the best all around player on either team.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Right Field: Carlos Beltran vs Marlon Byrd
Beltran season is a tale of two halves. He hit .309/.346/.533 with 19 home runs in the first half, but just .277/.329/.429 with 5 home runs in the second half, including a .217/.320/.313 line in September. However, he thrives in the postseason, with a career .363/.470/.782 line in the playoffs, including a .357/.440/.714 line last year with the Cardinals.
Byrd had a nice comeback year, hitting .291/.336/.511, including .318/.357/.486 after being acquired from the Mets. His 24 home runs this year are a career high. However, this will be the first postseason of his career.
Beltran experience and reputation for taking it up a notch in October gives him the edge over the likely NL comeback player of the year.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Starting Pitching
Cardinals projected starters Adam Wainwright (1-0, 3.00 ERA), Lance Lynn (2-1, 5.60), Shelby Miller (0-4, 5.32) and Joe Kelly (3-1, 2.53) have had mixed results against the Pirates. Michael Wacha (1-0, 0.00 ERA in 9 IP) is another option for the Cards. Wainwright and Lynn are scheduled to pitch the first two games against the Bucs, beyond that its anyone's guess as to who goes.
The Pirates have A.J. Burnett (3-1, 3.67 ERA against the Cards) lined up for the first game of the series, with Pedro Liriano (3-0, 0.75 ERA), likely to pitch the third game, after shutting down the Reds last night. Beyond those two, Charlie Morton (0-2, 7.90 ERA), Jeff Locke (1-1, 3.38) and Gerritt Cole (no record) are the other options against the Redbirds.
The good news for Cardinals fans is that the team will only have to face Liriano, who has dominated the Cards this year, once this series. It will also be interesting to see if Clint Hurdle will use Locke against the Cards, who have struggled against lefties all year. Locke has struggled in the second half (2-5, 6.00 ERA) and Hurdle may not trust him in the playoffs.
Another factor may be each team's rookie starters, Wacha and Cole. Both performed well down the stretch and could be given a start. However, managers tend to shy away from rookies in pressure situations.
Overall, this is almost too close to call, but I think I have to give the edge to the Pirates, mainly due to their top 2 starters Liriano and Burnett.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bullpen
Edward Mujica, who was the Cardinals closer for the majority of the season, was removed from that role in September, due to "general fatigue" (and, as a result, general ineffectiveness). Trevor Rosenthal stepped up and earned 3 saves during the last couple weeks of the season and will likely fill the closer role in the postseason.
Mujica uncertain status, puts pressure on a bullpen that has already seen its share of ups-and-downs this season. Seth Maness has done well in a setup role and the Cardinals have two quality lefties in Randy Choate and Kevin Siegrist. Carlos Martinez could be pushed into a setup role as well.
The Pirates had their own injury concerns with their closer, Jason Grilli, after he missed a little over a month with a forearm strain. Mark Melancon filled in admirably in his absence, but their bullpen is much better with Grilli manning the closing duties. The Pirates bullpen also has a couple quality lefties in Justin Wilson and Tony Watson to counter the Cards lefty combo.
Overall, the Pirates bullpen fared better than the Cardinals during the season, posting a 2.89 ERA versus 3.45 for the Cards. That, combined with the uncertainty surrounding Mujica gives the Pirates the edge.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Bench
With Allen Craig out, the Cardinals biggest bat off the bench, Matt Adams, has shifted to a starting role, leaving the Cards bench pretty barren. Shane Robinson provides some speed and the Cardinals will also have either Kozma or Descalso on the bench, depending on who's starting. But after that, its unclear who will even make the roster, let alone provide some sort of offense.
The Pirates actually strengthened their bench by acquiring Morneau and Byrd, pushing former starters Garrett Jones and Jose Tabata to reserve roles. Add in Gabby Sanchez and Travis Snider and the Pirates have a good mix of power and speed, as well as lefty/righty on their bench.
ADVANTAGE: PIRATES
Intangibles
The Cardinals will be appearing in their 3rd straight postseason, while the Pirates will be making their first appearance since 1992.
Cardinals manager Mike Matheny will be making his second straight postseason appearance, but this is just his second year as a major league manager. Pirates manager Clint Hurdle made the postseason twice with the Rockies and this is his first appearance with the Pirates. Hurdle has 11 years of managerial experience.
Finally, the Cardinals have home field advantage, where they have gone 54-27 this season.
ADVANTAGE: CARDINALS
Overall
Based on the above, the teams are tied 6-6, indicating that I believe this will be a close series. Basically, I believe the Pirates have a better pitching staff, while the Cards have a better offense. Generally they say that good pitching beats good hitting, but I think that the Cardinals postseason experience and home field advantage will help them edge the Pirates in the end.
PREDICTION: CARDINALS IN 5
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
CFCL Bold Predictions: NL Central
Continuing the United Cardinals Bloggers March project, today I'll take a look at the NL Central or the only division that matters. All of my fellow Cardinals bloggers will be making their predictions as well and you can follow them at the UCB website.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
Now, without further ado, here are my projected standings for the NL Central:
- St. Louis Cardinals
- Cincinnati Reds
- Pittsburgh Pirates
- Milwaukee Brewers
- Chicago Cubs
The Reds will be the closest competition for the Cards. They traded for Shin-Soo Choo in the offseason to give them a legitimate center fielder and Todd Frazier should be able to replace the retired (?) Scott Rolen. However, the key to their offense will be keeping Joey Votto healthy. Their pitching should be strong again, with Johnny Cueto and Mat Latos headlining the rotation and Aroldis Chapman throwing heat out of the pen. Predicted Record: 93-69 (Wild Card)
Pittsburgh keeps tantalizing their fans with the hope of a .500 season and 2013 might finally be their year to get over the hump. Starling Marte is a budding star and will join superstar Andrew McCutchen in the outfield. Their current pitching staff is pretty pedestrian, but when you consider that veterans Francisco Liriano and Jeff Karstens are probably just vying their time until top prospects Gerrit Cole and Jameson Taillon are ready, the pitching staff could end up being their strength by the end of the year. Predicted Record: 87-75
The Brewers traded away their best pitcher, Zach Greinke, last year and lost Shawn Marcum to free agency. Recent signing Kyle Lohse should help lessen those losses and Yovanni Gallardo remains, but there are questions beyond that. Marco Estrada and Michael Fiers caught the league by surprise last year and it remains to be seen if they can repeat that performance now that the league has the "book" on them. The offense will continue to be good, with Ryan Braun leading the way, but it may not be enough to overcome the lack of quality pitching. Predicted Record: 85-77
The Cubs continue to rebuild. They added some much needed arms to the pitching staff in Edwin Jackson, Scott Baker, Scott Feldman, Carlos Villanueva and Japanese import Kyuji Fujikawa, to go along with Matt Garza and budding ace Jeff Samardzija. However, their anemic offense will hold them back. They have some building blocks in Anthony Rizzo and Starlin Castro, but not much else. Predicted Record: 67-95
Up next will be the NL West.
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