Could the Cardinals offense be improved in 2016?

The St. Louis Cardinals offense suffered a big loss when Jason Heyward took less money to sign with the rival Cubs.  Given that the Cards finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, Heyward and his 3.8 oWAR (offensive Wins Against Replacement) will be missed.

With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.

But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.

Here's how....

Stay Healthy

The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season.  Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.

Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.

If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.

More Piscotty

The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.

Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games.  He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.

While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.

Better Bench

One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.

Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).

Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).

Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions.  Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season?  Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump?  Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?

The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.

Cards shuffle the deck. Do they have what it takes to win it all?

Once again, the Cardinals and GM John Mozeliak got their Christmas shopping done early.  Last year, Mo made his big moves in November (trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta) and he did the same this year (trading Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden).

Other than maybe a couple more tweaks, it appears that the roster is complete.  But are the Cardinals better off than last year?  Do they have what it takes to win it all?  Lets take a look at the changes and see.

Infield

The main goal for Mozeliak this offseason was to find a right handed bat who could play first and potentially platoon with Matt Adams.  Mo filled that hole with the signing of Mark Reynolds to a one year, $2 million contract. 

Reynolds will not provide much in terms of batting average (career .229 hitter), but he has 224 homers in 1118 games and has fared a bit better against lefties in his career (.809 OPS compared to .772 vs righties).  This is far better than Adams' numbers against lefties (.553 career OPS), making Reynolds a good option to platoon with Adams.

Free agent Mark Ellis and his .180 average will not return and the Cardinals finally moved on from Daniel Descalso and his career .654 OPS.  Replacing them will be veteran minor leaguer Dean Anna, who finally got a cup of coffee in the majors last year at the age of 27 and hit just .136 in 22 at bats.  However, he does have a career .380 OBP in the minors, with nearly as many walks (310) as strikeouts (319) in 2448 plate appearances.

Another addition, is 26 year old Ty Kelly, who the Cardinals acquired from Seattle for Sam Gaviglio. Like Anna, Kelly showed the ability to get on base in the minors (.387 OBP) and had more walks (434) than strikeouts (431).  Both Anna and Kelly project to be utility infielders, with Anna capable of playing second, short, third and corner outfield, while Kelly is capable of playing second, third and corner outfield.

Pete Kozma will also compete for a backup spot and is a career .236 hitter in 522 at bats.

Overall, I would have to say that infield is a bit better than last year, as the bench has improved with the addition of Reynolds, while the combination of Anna, Kelly and/or Kozma should be able to improve upon the meager outputs of Ellis and Descalso.

Outfield

After losing top prospect and likely starting right fielder Oscar Taveras to a tragic car accident, the Cardinals filled the void with the trade for Heyward.  Heyward is an excellent defender, but has seen his OPS drop in each of the last 3 years from .814 in 2012, to .776 in 2013 and .735 in 2014.  The main culprit for this drop is a serious power outage during that time that has seen his home runs drop from a career high of 27 in 2012 to a career low of 11 last season.

Randall Grichuk seemed to find his stroke in the second half last season, hitting .318/.338/.485 after the break and should provide some pop off the bench.  Peter Bourjos will also fill a reserve role, with resurgent Jon Jay (.303/.372/.378) having reclaimed his starting job.

The Cardinals will also have highly regarded prospect Stephen Piscotty and defensive wiz Tommy Pham as extra depth at AAA Memphis, while Shane Robinson, who was released in November, along with his career .612 OPS, will not be missed.

Overall, Heyward should be an upgrade over the Cardinals 2014 right fielders (mostly Allen Craig and Taveras) who hit a combined .237/.283/.326.  Bourjos and Grichuk will provide the backup, as they did for most of 2014 and will look to improve on their 2014 numbers.

Starting Pitching

The Cardinals started the overhaul of their rotation last July, with the acquisition of John Lackey for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly.  He will slot into the rotation that will also feature holdovers Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha.

With the trade of Shelby Miller, the 5th starter job will likely come down to a battle between Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales.  Martinez made 7 starts last year and has the best stuff of the two, whereas Gonzales made 5 starts in 2014 and may be more polished.

One key to the Cardinals rotation will be the health of Wacha, who missed over two months last year due to a stress reaction in his shoulder.  Should he prove healthy, he will give the Cards a quartet of starters that would match up well with most other teams in the league. 

Another key will be Lynn proving that his 2014 season (15-10, 2.74 ERA) was not a fluke.  He has been troubled by inconsistency throughout his career and must prove that he can put another strong season together.

Overall, with a healthy Wacha, the Cardinals rotation should be better.  The emphasis should be on keeping these guys healthy, as the Cards showed in 2014 that their pitching depth isn't all that its cracked up to be, using 4 different guys (Martinez, Kelly, Gonzales and Tyler Lyons) to replace the injured Wacha and Jaime Garcia.

Bullpen

The bullpen appears to be the biggest question mark for the team heading into the 2015 season.  Closer Trevor Rosenthal showed some signs of wear and tear after being leaned on heavily the last two seasons.  His walk rate jumped from 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 to 5.4 BB/9 in 2014.  He was able to wiggle out of numerous jams while posting 45 saves, but he was often walking a tightrope.

The Cardinals most effective reliever, Pat Neshek, is gone, taking with him a sparkling 1.87 ERA and 7 wins in 67.1 innings.  While there are questions regarding Kevin Siegrist's health and who will replace Martinez' innings, should he move to a starter role.

To fill these voids, Mozeliak brought in Walden, who has a career ERA of 3.10 in 211.2 innings, and veteran Matt Belisle, whom the Cards hope will follow the Neshek rejuvenation path, after posting a 4.87 ERA in 2014.

The Cardinals will also return groundball specialist Seth Maness, along with lefties Randy Choate (4.50 ERA) and Sam Freeman (2.61 ERA), although Choate may be on the trading block.

Overall, this is the one area where I think the Cards may have taken a step back, especially if Martinez earns a starting rotation spot.  Replacing Neshek and Martinez with Walden and possibly Belisle is definitely a downgrade and, even if Martinez returns to the bullpen, the Cardinals may have only 3-4 reliable bullpen arms.  I would love to see Mo add at least one more proven guy to the pen.

Based on all of the above, I think the Cards should be improved over last year, but there are still concerns surrounding the bullpen.  As we saw last year, when the Cardinals bullpen went 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA in the LCS compared to the Giants 3-1, 1.69 performance, a good bullpen can make all the difference.

Who are the Cardinals trade chips?

Buster Olney is reporting that the Rays are prepared to deal David Price "right now".  The trade market is obviously heating up and thhe Cardinals appear to be looking to make a big splash this time around.  But what do the Cards have to offer the sellers as the trade season heats up?

Here's a look at some of the players that the Cards might be willing to part with to land the pieces they need to contend for a title.

The Outfield Logjam

One area in which the Cardinals have a surplus is in the outfield, here are some players that could be moved to ease that logjam.

1.  Matt Adams

It was reported a while back that Adams could be on the block as the Cardinals look to eliminate their outfield logjam, while at the same time getting a quality player in return.  Adams is appealing to other teams in that he is cheap (he still has one more season before arbitration) and he is a career .295 hitter with power.  He could be involved in a trade for a big fish, such as Price.

2.  Allen Craig

Craig is also appealing due to his reasonable contract--he is earning just $2.75 million in 2014, and will make just $5.5 million in 2015, $9.0 in 2016 and $11 million in 2017.  All affordable salaries for a career .297 hitter and rbi machine.  He probably wouldn't be the centerpiece of a David Price deal, but could be used to acquire an upgrade at another position, such as second base.

3.  Jon Jay/Peter Bourjos

Jay and Bourjos have been splitting time in center this season, with Mike Matheny riding the hot hand.  However, one of them could be traded to land some bullpen help or as a piece to a larger deal.  Both will be entering their second year of arbitration this offseason and trading one of them could help the Cardinals save money to use for other needs.

The Prospects

Although the Cardinals no longer have the top farm system, the team still has quality prospects and depth to make some moves.


1.  Oscar Taveras

If the Cardinals are going to land a pitcher like Price, they are going to have to part with some of the best prospects and there is no one better than Taveras.  He could be the centerpiece of a mega-deal while at the same time helping to eliminate the outfield logjam.

2.  Carlos Martinez/Marco Gonzales

If there is one thing that selling teams crave, its young, controllable, major league ready pitching.  Martinez is a young power arm that could be the key to a deal for a veteran arm, such as Price.  Gonzales doesn't have the power arm, like Martinez, but his promotion to start on Wednesday could just be a means of showcasing him to other teams.  In any case, don't be surprise if one of these guys names pops up in trade rumors.

3.  Stephen Piscotty/Randal Grichuk/James Ramsey

The Cardinals have an abundance of good young outfield prospects and one of these guys could end up on the block.  Any one of these guys could be traded to land a quality reliever or could be included in a larger deal. 

These are just some of the guys who the Cards might consider expendable to get what they need.  The team currently has the depth to do whatever it takes to make this team better, but will John Mozeliak be willing to pull the trigger?

Cardinals could trade an outfielder. Who could move and for what?

Its no secret that the Cardinals have a surplus of outfielders in their system, from major leaguers Matt Holliday, Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos and Allen Craig on down to their AAA outfield of Oscar Taveras, Randal Grichuk (who are both currently on the major league roster) and Stephen Piscotty.

In a recent article, Bernie Miklasz indicated that something's got to give, hinting that a trade is the logical thing to do.

But who might the Cardinals trade and what do they need in return?

Well, Darren Wolfson says that the Twins have interest in Jon Jay and that the Cardinals would probably ask for reliever Casey Fien and a prospect in return.  This makes sense for the Cards as they certainly could use the bullpen help and it could open up the possibility of Taveras splitting time with Bourjos in center.

Jon Heyman speculated a while back that the Cardinals could trade either Matt Adams or Allen Craig. However, if the Cardinals were to trade one of those guys, they would be looking for more than a reliever in return. 

According to Miklasz, a scout suggested to him that the Cards could try to make a big splash and acquire a "formidable starting pitcher" to complement Adam Wainwright and Michael Wacha in the rotation.  Two of the biggest starting pitching names that have been rumored to be on the block are the Cubs' Jeff Samardzija and the Rays' David Price.

The Cubs don't seem to be willing to pony up the money necessary to extend Samardzija, who is signed through the 2015 season.  However, the Cubs already have a couple of talented outfield prospects in Albert Almora and Jorge Soler.  Do they really need another outfielder and would they want to trade within their own division?

As for the Rays and Price, they could certainly use another outfielder, as they are currently employing David DeJesus in left field.  While he's a decent outfielder, he doesn't have the power normally associated with a corner guy. 

That's not to say that Craig or Adams would be enough to land a pitcher like Price.  Most likely it would require some prospects as well.  For example, when the Rays traded James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals a couple years ago, they acquired the Royals top prospects Wil Meyers and Jake Odorizzi, along with a couple other prospects (Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard).

Are the Cards willing to part with some of their top prospects for Price, who is only under team control through 2015?

Both Price and Samardzija are more valuable than most players on the block this time of year, as they are under team control beyond 2014, but that just means that their teams will be looking for more in return as well.

In any case, this situation bears watching and I'm sure there will be many more rumors floating around as the July 31st trade deadline gets nearer.

Cardinals call up Oscar Taveras. Matt Adams headed for the DL.

The long wait is over, the Cardinals have called up Oscar Taveras.  Unfortunately it comes at the expense of Matt Adams.

Per Derrick Goold, Taveras will be called up on Saturday and likely inserted into the lineup immediately, while Adams will head to the DL with a calf injury.

Its a shame to lose Adams, who is hitting .325/.337/.474 on the year and is one of the team's most productive hitters.  However, the Cardinals hope that Taveras can fill the void, as he was hitting .325/.373/.524 at AAA Memphis.

Taveras will likely play right field while Adams is out, with Allen Craig shifting to 1B.  Recently promoted Randal Grichuk will likely be the DH during the Cardinals road trip to the AL parks that starts on June 4th.

So, the long wait is finally over, however, unless he hits like gangbusters, don't expect his stay to last longer than that of Adams' on the DL.

Cardinals Mailbag

As part of the United Cardinals Bloggers May project, we created a mailbag format where each blogger is asked a question from a group of fellow Cardinals bloggers and provides a response to each.

As a result, here is the first CFCL mailbag (sponsored by the UCB):

Bill Ivie, I-70 Baseball - Your site is dedicated to your father, who you say "without whom my love for the Cardinals would have never been born."  My father was very important to my love of the game and I'm intrigued.  If you don't mind, could you share with us a story about your father and how he helped you come to love the Birds on the Bat instead of the Baby Bears?

Growing up in Normal, Illinois, the Cubs and Cardinals fans were pretty evenly split, however there was never a question as to which team I would root for.  My dad spent the formative years of his life in Clayton, Missouri and once got to see Dizzy Dean pitch against Carl Hubbell.  His love for the game and the Cardinals rubbed off on me and stays with me to this day.

As the beneficiary of a June birthday, my gift each year was to go down to St. Louis for a weekend Cardinals series with my family.  While my sister never was really into baseball and my brother outgrew the sport and turned his interests to music, the love of baseball and the Cardinals is something my dad and I always shared.


Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants - In your years of following the St. Louis Cardinals, what is your favorite moment?

There have been many great moments in my years of following the Cards, including the 2011 World Series game 6, attending Lou Brock day back when Brock was my favorite player and getting to shake hands with Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith at the Adams Mark hotel bar after a game.

However, my favorite memory has to be watching the 7th game of the 1982 World Series with my dad and brother in our living room.  I sat in silence for a few seconds after Bruce Sutter struck out Gorman Thomas to win it, before joining my dad and brother in celebration.

After becoming a diehard Cardinals fan in the mid-1970's, getting to finally see the Cards win a World Series for the first time (in my lifetime) was a special moment for me and to be able to share it with my dad and brother made it that much more special.

Ben Chambers, The View From Here - What is the hardest part of being "behind enemy lines"?

Probably the hardest thing about living in the Chicago area, is the inability to follow the Cardinals as closely as I use to.

When I was growing up in Central Illinois, I listened to the Cards on the radio every night and watched the games regularly, when the Cardinals games were picked up by one of our local TV stations. Nowadays, I can only catch the Cards on national telecasts.

Other than that, the fans are tolerable (I'm married to one), especially now that they are rebuilding and you don't have fair-weather fans coming out of the woodwork.  But, if they were to become relevant again, that could certainly change.

Dan Buffa, Dose of Buffa - Can you see any huge differences between this team under John Mabry as hitting coach as opposed to Mark McGwire?

You mean other than the fact that the Cardinals can't seem to score runs this year compared to prior years?

In all seriousness, I don't put a lot of stock in hitting coaches having a significant impact on a team.  For the most part, hitters know their swing and can tell when they are out of sync and the coach can help them tweak things on occassion.

Its rare that you are going to change a hitters approach once they reach the major leagues (see Colby Rasmus), so the main thing that I think a hitting coach does is to help hitters who are struggling sort out their mechanics and all that entails is watching some video.

Daniel Shoptaw, C70 At The Bat - What one move would you make to shake up this team and get it out of the .500 doldrums?

I don't know if there is one move that will shake up this team and get it back on track, as the biggest issue has been the lack of offense.  The only thing Mike Matheny can do about that is to keep trotting the under-performers, like Allen Craig, out there in hopes that they can get hot.

Other than that, guys getting healthy, like Jason Motte and even Jaime Garcia, should give the other problem area, the bullpen, a boost as Garcia's return to the rotation would allow the Cardinals to move Joe Kelly back to the pen (when he's healthy again).

The only move that the Cardinals have yet to try (and that fans have been clamoring for) is to promote Oscar Taveras and start him in center field.  However, while he might improve the offense, he would probably make an already poor outfield defense even worse.

Basically, the talent is there for the Cards to go on a run, they just have to play up to their abilities.

John Nagel, Cardinals Farm -Since you are a history buff, what is another Cards team that had plenty of talent but couldn't put it together?

The Cardinals team that stands out to me as having the most talent and not being able to put it together was the 1986 team.

This was basically the same team as the World Series team of 1985.  After leading the NL in runs scored in 1985 with 747, the 1986 team struggled to score runs (sound familiar), finishing last in runs scored (601), average (.236) and OBP (.309).

Only a solid pitching staff that finished the season 4th in ERA (3.37) helped the Cardinals avoid total disaster that year.  They dug themselves a big hole with a 36-50 record in the first half, but showed that they had the talent to win, going 43-32 in the second half of the season to end up with an overall record of 79-82.

After adding Tony Pena via trade after the 1986 season and promoting Joe Magrane to join the starting rotation, the 1987 Cardinals once again rose to the top and made it back to the World Series, but, to me at least, the 1986 season for the Cards will always be one of the biggest disappointments.

Kevin Reynolds, Stl Cards 'N Stuff - How has blogging about baseball changed your experience of baseball?  Bonus Question: What single position (non-position) on the Cards roster do you see being filled with a future core player from the farm system not currently with the big league team? Who/why/etc.?

I think that, living in the Chicago area, I have not been able to follow the Cardinals as closely as I have in the past.  Starting a blog on the Cardinals has helped me "reconnect" with the team.

The easiest answer to your second question is that the Cardinals will eventually make room for Oscar Taveras at one of the corner outfield spots by trading one of Matt Holliday, Allen Craig or Matt Adams. 

However, to dig a little deeper, I'm not currently sold on either of our center field options nor is Jhonny Peralta a long-term solution at short.  I think the center field will eventually be filled by James Ramsey.  He is making some noise at AA Springfield this season (.305/.393/.583 with 11 homers in 151 at bats) and is well regarded for his leadership and makeup.

As for shortstop, I think the Cardinals will eventually have to look outside the organization to fill that hole (again).

That's it for this mailbag.  If anyone has any questions they would like me to answer for future mailbags, please send them to:  watershark67@yahoo.com.

Could the Cardinals trade Matt Adams to make room for Oscar Taveras?

With the outfield logjam in the Cardinals system, I have recently speculated that potentially Matt Holliday or Allen Craig could be traded to open up a spot for top prospect Oscar Taveras.  The thinking is that the Cardinals could shed some salary while improving their outfield defense.

However, there is another option out there.

According to Buster Olney (ESPN Insider required), a rival talent evaluator suggested that Matt Adams could be the one to be traded, with Craig moving to first and Taveras playing right field.  The scout suggests that defensive issues are preventing the Cards from promoting Taveras, as he is better suited for a corner outfield spot than center.

I agree that Taveras is unlikely to be a long-term solution in center and that playing him in center field this year would weaken an already poor outfield defense.  Holliday is not going to win any Gold Gloves and Craig is not much better.  Adding Taveras to the mix would create more gaps, due to the limited range of all three.

Peter Bourjos' recent hot streak (he's 5 for 8 in his last 2 games) may give him another opportunity to prove himself capable of handling the everyday center field job, where his range and plus defense is much needed.

At the same time, trading Adams would improve the Cardinals defense in right field (i.e. Taveras > Craig), while not losing much (if anything) at first.

In addition, trading Adams would probably net the Cards more in return, as he is cheaper than either Holliday or Craig and under team control through 2018.

Overall it makes sense, but its unlikely to happen anytime soon.  The Cardinals will likely promote Taveras sometime in June and then rotate their outfielders and first basemen for a time until the July trade deadline.

That is when we will see what, if anything, the Cards do about the logjam.

St. Louis Cardinals offseason moves and outlook

The Cardinals won the NL Central on their way to the NL championship and their second World Series appearance in the last 3 years before losing to the Red Sox in 6 games.  The Cardinals hope to continue that hot streak in 2014.

Key Losses

Carlos Beltran, John Axford, David Freese, Edward Mujica, Jake Westbrook, Fernando Salas

Key Acquisitions

Peter Bourjos, Jhonny Peralta, Mark Ellis

Coming off a NL championship, the Cardinals did not have many holes to fill this offseason.   GM John Mozeliak worked quickly to fill those holes, trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta before Thanksgiving.  Mo added Mark Ellis in December to complete the 2014 roster.

With the trade of Freese, the Cardinals greatly improved their overall defense.  Bourjos is a superior center fielder to Jon Jay and, with Freese gone, Matt Carpenter can move to his more natural third base position while making room at second for Kolten Wong.  Thus, with one move, the Cardinals improved their defense at 3 positions.

On the flip side, Peralta is a worse defender that the man he's replacing at short, Pete Kozma, however, the Cardinals are counting on his offense more than making up for that difference.

Besides those moves, the biggest change from 2013 is the loss of Carlos Beltran.  He will be replaced in right by Allen Craig, with Matt Adams taking over at first.  However, keep an eye on top prospect Oscar Taveras this spring as he could force his way into the Cardinals plans.

Yadier Molina and Matt Holliday will round out the lineup.  Molina continues to be a MVP caliber player each year with his offense, defense and leadership, while Holliday just continues to rake.

On the pitching side, Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller should make up 4/5ths of the starting rotation.  The Cardinals lost free agent Jake Westbrook, who ended up retiring this offseason, but the team has plenty of options to replace him.

Jaime Garcia is option number one for the Cards, should he prove to be healthy.  There are always concerns regarding pitchers coming off shoulder surgery, but the Cardinals could use a lefty in the rotation.

If he is not ready, then one of Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly or Tyler Lyons could step in.  However, it seems more likely that Martinez will work out of the pen, while Kelly serves as the long man and Lyons starts the season at AAA.

In the pen, Trevor Rosenthal will handle the closer duties, after his stellar performance in the postseason.  Jason Motte is recovering from Tommy John surgery and will likely start the season on the DL.  Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist, Seth Maness and Randy Choate will also work in relief.

Overall, with their abundance of young arms and improved offense and defense, the Cardinals should once again be the team to beat this year in the NL Central.

SHAMELESS PLUG

For you followers of this blog and Cardinals fans in general, be sure to check out this year's United Cardinals Bloggers annual "Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms: The 2013 St. Louis Cardinals".  In this collection you'll find writing from 17 different Cardinals bloggers (including yours truly), plus a capsule on every player that wore the Birds on the Bat in 2013.  Not only that, but you'll get an overall look at what's to come in 2014. 

Purpose, Perseverance and Power Arms is available as an e-book at the Amazon Kindle store for $2.99.  The book can be read on any of the devices in the Kindle family as well as by downloading Amazon's free reading apps for your computer, tablet or smartphone.  It may also be read in your browser directly on Amazon.

Projecting the Cardinals future lineups

According to GM John Mozeliak, the Cardinals are likely finished with their offseason moves, meaning that, besides adding some minor league depth, the Cards roster is pretty much set.

Thus, as I did with the starting rotation a little while ago, its time to look at the projected Cardinals lineups not only for 2014 but for future years as well.

In case you missed it, as I had just started up this blog at the time, I did a similar exercise last year, which can be found HERE.  

Its always interesting to see how my projections look a year after they are made.  The main restriction I put on myself is to assume that all openings will be filled in-house (i.e. no free agents or trades), thereby relying only on the Cardinals farm system to fill holes, which, as we have seen this offseason, is not always the case.

Thus, last year, I showed 2013 free agents Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran being replaced by Pete Kozma and Oscar Taveras in 2014 and then 2015 free agent David Freese being replaced by Kolten Wong with Matt Carpenter moving over to third.

However, this year, with the likely starters all locked up through at least the 2016 season, taking the above approach would be pretty boring, thus, I decided to shake things up a bit by assuming some possible trades and free agent signings.

In any case, here's how I see things shaking out over the next few years:

2014

As I alluded to before, the 2014 lineup is set, its just a matter of figuring out the batting order.  I think Mike Matheny will make new addition Peter Bourjos the leadoff hitter, followed by Matt Carpenter.  However, I'm not entirely sold on Bourjos as a leadoff man, given his career .306 OBP and I can see Carpenter returning to the leadoff spot with Jhonny Peralta hitting second.

From there, Matt Holliday will likely stay in his familiar 3rd spot with Allen Craig hitting 4th.  Then Yadier Molina and Matt Adams following, with perhaps Adams moving down further against some lefties.  That leaves Bourjos and Kolten Wong bringing up the rear.

Thus, here is my projected 2014 lineup:

1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. pitcher

2015

At some point in the 2014 season or before the 2015 season begins, the Cardinals are going to have to make a big decision.  Oscar Taveras will likely be ready to assume a full-time outfield role with the team and the Cards already have too many outfielders.

Jon Jay will likely have already been traded by the July 2014 trade deadline, but that still leaves the Cardinals with Holliday, Craig, Bourjos, Adams and Taveras to fill 4 spots (including first) and that's not even considering the Cards other top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty.  I could see the team possibly trading Holliday, who will be 35 at this time, to free up some salary and to replenish their farm system.

Holliday is owed $17 million a year through 2016, with an $17 million option for 2017 that carries a $1 million buyout.  Thus, trading him at this time would save the team $35 million.  Allen Craig is another trade possibility, but he's younger and under a more reasonable contract, thereby making Holliday the more appealing option.

Thus, here is how I see the 2015 lineup panning out:

1. Matt Carpenter, 3B
2. Jhonny Peralta, SS
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B
9. pitcher

2016

Again, there would be no free agents to worry about at this time, so it comes down to whether the Cardinals feel a trade or free agent signing make sense.

My main concern around this time would be Peralta's defense at short.  He will turn 34 during the 2016 season and will likely have lost a step or two on defense.  Thus, it might make sense for the Cards to pursue a free agent shortstop.

Yunel Escobar will be a free agent after the 2015 season and could be a good fit for the Cardinals.  While he is an average hitter, he has proven to be an above average fielder in his career and would give the team's defense a boost.

Of course, if the team signs Escobar, that leaves Peralta without a position.  He could become trade bait or a super utility player, but in either case he will be out of the starting lineup.

Also, by this time, I would think that Wong will have established himself as a good major league hitter and capable leadoff man, thereby allowing Carpenter to bat second, thus giving us the following lineup:

1. Kolten Wong, 2B
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Peter Bourjos, CF
8. Yunel Escobar, SS
9. pitcher

2017

Finally, a free agent!  After the 2016 season, Peter Bourjos will likely leave via free agency.  Waiting in the wings could be James Ramsey, who will have likely served a long apprenticeship, beginning in 2015 as a 4th outfielder.

Other than that, it will be more of the status quo for the team, giving us the following lineup:

1. Kolten Wong, 2B
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Yadier Molina, C
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Matt Adams, 1B
6. Oscar Taveras, LF
7. Yunel Escobar, SS
8. James Ramsey, CF
9. pitcher

Overall, the Cardinals are setup pretty well for the future and do not have to make any moves in the foreseeable future.  There are some tweaks they can make along the way to avoid being stuck with a large contract for an aging veteran (i.e. Holliday) or having to make due with an aging veteran at a key position (Peralta).

However, the team is certainly set up for long-term success and, if they continue to develop players as they have recently, that success will continue.

Johnny Peralta signing sets the Cardinals lineup. But what about their bench?

With the signing of Johnny Peralta, the Cardinals starting lineup is set for 2014.  As of right now, the 2014 lineup would look like this:

C - Yadier Molina (Right handed)
1B - Matt Adams (Left handed)
2B - Kolten Wong (L)
SS - Johnny Peralta (R)
3B - Matt Carpenter (L)
LF - Matt Holliday (R)
CF - Peter Bourjos (R)
RF - Allen Craig (R)

Jon Jay (L) will be relegated to the bench and Oscar Taveras (L) will likely start the season in AAA.  However, once Taveras is ready its likely that the Cardinals will trade Jay to make room for him.

With Daniel Descalso (L) likely acting as utility infielder and Tony Cruz (or some other seldom used catcher) acting as Molina's backup, the Cardinals will still have two spots to fill on their bench.

Shane Robinson (R) could fill one spot, as the 4th or 5th outfielder, but the Cardinals could use a right handed hitter for their bench, particularly one who can play the infield (2B, 3B and 1B), as they've got an abundance of lefty-hitting infielders.

Pouring over the options, I think the Cardinals should pursue Jeff Baker.

Not only is he capable of playing 1B, 2B, 3B and the corner outfield spots, but he kills lefties.  For his career, he has hit .298/.353/.522 against left handers, including 35 homers in 751 at bats.  Plus, even though he is 32, he showed no signs of slowing down in 2013, hitting .297/.390/.653 including 10 homers in 101 at bats against lefties.

He would be the perfect compliment to a primarily left handed infield and would basically fill the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to fill last year.

Latest Trade Rumors: Cardinals actively looking to trade David Freese and Rangers' shortstops may no longer be an option

Things are heating up on the David Freese front while Texas' trade of Ian Kinsler has many wondering where the Cardinals will find a shortstop, as the Hot Stove Heats up.

David Freese

Reports surfaced yesterday that the Cardinals were talking to the Angels about a possible David Freese trade (first reported by Ken Rosenthal via Twitter).  Rosenthal further reported that the Cardinals were looking for outfield depth and that the sides were still in the "discussion phase".  The Angels have young outfielders, such as Peter Bourjos, J.B. Shuck and Kole Calhoun that could interest the Cards.

I find it somewhat puzzling that the Cardinals would be looking for additional outfielders, when the have some talented youngsters of their own, such as Oscar Taveras, Stephen Piscotty and even Mike O'Neill waiting in the wings.

Perhaps its an indication that the Cardinals may be looking to move someone like Matt Adams or Jon Jay in another trade to acquire a shortstop.

In any case, Jeff Fletcher of the Orange County Register indicated that the Cardinals would not trade Freese for Bourjos straight up and that some more pieces need to be involved, but they are still working on it.

Update:  The Cardinals have traded Freese and Fernando Salas for the Angles' Peter Bourjos and Randal Grichuk.  I will post details later...

Shortstop

The Cardinals search for a shortstop hit an unexpected roadblock this week when the Rangers traded second baseman Ian Kinsler to Detroit for Prince Fielder.  Although Ken Rosenthal indicated that the Rangers are still open to trading either Elvis Andrus or Jurickson Profar, it seems less likely now.

With Andrus and Profar off the table, Bernie Miklasz breaks down the other options for the Cards, with J.J. Hardy listed as his "best fit".

While Hardy won the Silver Slugger and Gold Glove last year, it appears that he has his drawbacks as well.  For one thing, he is only signed through the 2014 season and it appears that the Orioles asking price (Shelby Miller) is pretty high.

I, for one, do not want to give up Miller for a one-year rental, however, as Miklasz points out, there doesn't appear to be a lot of other great options.

Perhaps the Cardinals can find some way to pry Erick Aybar away from the Angels while they are working on the Freese trade or perhaps the Rangers might be more willing to trade Andrus or Profar if the Cardinals include Kolten Wong (to replace Kinsler at second).  However, that won't happen if the Cards trade Freese.

In any case, it looks like Freese could be on the move soon and we might have to wait a while before the shortstop position is filled.

Why Elvis Andrus is my pick to be the next Cardinals shortstop.

Ever since Cardinals GM John Mozeliak stated that he was willing to trade young pitching for a young controllable shortstop, the rumors have been flying as to who the Cards might acquire.  There's been speculation regarding Troy Tulowitzki, Jed Lowrie, J.J. Hardy, Stephen Drew and, of course, Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar of the Rangers.

After careful consideration of all of the alternatives, I think that Elvis Andrus of the Rangers would be the best fit for the Cardinals.

Here's why:

He's young and controllable

First off, Andrus meets Mozeliak's own criteria of being "young and controllable".  Andrus is only 25 year's old and is signed through 2022 (although he can opt out of his contract after 2018 or 2019).  Sure, his contract is not cheap--he will make $6.475 million in 2014 and $15 million a year through 2018, but the Cardinals have the money to afford him.

He's available

The Rangers have said that they are willing to trade one of the middle infielders (Andrus, Profar or Ian Kinsler).  Trading Andrus probably makes the most sense for them, as it would help them shed salary while opening up a spot for Profar.

He can hit lefites

As I pointed out in a previous article, the Cardinals need to improve their lineup against lefties and Andrus would do just that.  For his career, Andrus has hit .273/.346/.352 against lefties and .275/.337/.347 against righties.  Pretty even splits.

He's got speed

One thing the Cardinals offense lacked last season was speed.  The Detroit Tigers were the only team in baseball with fewer stolen bases than the Cardinals 45 (the Tigers had 35).  Andrus nearly matched the Cardinals total by himself, with 42 stolen bases in 2013.  He would fit nicely atop the Cardinals lineup along with Matt Carpenter. 

But, what about the other candidates?  How do they stack up?

Troy Tulowitzki

Tulo is 29 years old and signed through 2020.  He is set to make $16 million in 2014 and then $20 million a year through 2019 before dropping back down to $14 million in 2020.  While a better all around hitter than Andrus and at least comparable defensively, the downside to him is his injury history and availability.

In his career, Tulowitzki has only appeared in over 150 games twice in 7 seasons.  Andrus has averaged over 150 games a year in his 5 seasons. 

In addition, Tulo does not appear to be on the block.  That's not to say the Rockies wouldn't trade him, but the Cardinals would likely have to overpay to get him (one so-called expert suggested Michael Wacha, Trevor Rosenthal AND Allen Craig, i.e. NOT GONNA HAPPEN).

Jed Lowrie

Lowrie is 29 but is signed only through the 2014 season.  This is probably his biggest drawback, as, not only would the Cardinals have to give up some prospects for him, but then they would risk losing him after only one season.

That said, the asking price for him would probably be lower, but there has been no indication that the A's are willing to trade him in the first place.

J.J. Hardy

The Orioles reportedly offered the Cardinals Hardy for Shelby Miller, which the Cards quickly turned down.  Hardy is already 31 years old and is only signed through 2014, so, like Lowrie, there is a risk that the Cardinals could be back in this same predicament after the 2014 season, only down a prospect or two.

Not a very appealing option.

Stephen Drew

Drew, a free agent, wouldn't cost the Cardinals any young arms, just money.  However, he will be 31 to start the 2014 season and to get him the Cards would probably have to sign him to at least a 4-5 year deal.

The biggest drawback for Drew is his inability to hit lefties.  He hit just .196/.246/.340 against lefties in 2013 and just .235/.291/.390 for his career.  In fact, since 2010, he has gotten progressively worse in his splits against lefties, going from a .255 average in 2010, to .224 in 2011, .198 in 2012 and .196 in 2013.

Jurickson Profar


Of all of the other candidates, Profar would probably be my second choice.  At 20, he is younger and cheaper than Andrus, and would be under team control for another 5 years (if my math is right).  However, he has yet to prove himself at the major league level and yet would probably cost more in a trade than Andrus, mainly because of his salary and high upside.

So, given all of the above, I would like to see Mozeliak make a big push for Andrus.  It may take a package of Shelby Miller and Matt Adams to acquire him, but I think it would be worth it.  If the price goes significantly beyond that, then Mo should turn to Plan "B" (whatever that is).

What are your thoughts?  Who would you like to see the Cardinals go after?  I will post a poll on the homepage and you can discuss your choice in the comments section.

How can the Cardinals improve their lineup against lefthanders?

Its no secret that the Cardinals struggled against left handed pitchers in 2013.  As a team, the Cards hit just .238/.301/.371 against southpaws and their .672 OPS against lefties was 13th in the NL.  This was highlighted even more in the postseason, when the Cards hit a combined .211/.268/.295 (.563 OPS) against lefties, including two losses in the World Series against Jon Lester, who allowed only 1 run against the Cardinals in 15.1 innings.

Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties.  Here are my suggestions for doing just that:

1.  Hold on to David Freese

The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers.  With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).

However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.

They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench.  Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.

He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.

2.  Find a better shortstop

This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on.  The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.

Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team.  If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.

The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.

Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:

I	Split	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
	vs RHP as RHB	.275	.337	.347	.684
	vs LHP as RHB	.273	.346	.352	.698

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 11/13/2013.
 

You cannot get much more consistent than that.

3.  Add a righthanded OF to the bench

Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013.  The other was Jon Jay.

Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties.  Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties.  However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.

Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).

Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.

Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill.  Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay. 

All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch.  In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap.  Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries.  Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.

Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.  


With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:

Lineup vs Righties

1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Matt Carpenter, 3B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. Jon Jay, CF
8. Kolten Wong, 2B

     Bench

• David Freese
• Rajai Davis
• Daniel Descalso
• Shane Robinson
• Tony Cruz

Lineup vs Lefties

1. Elvis Andrus, SS
2. Matt Carpenter, 2B
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. David Freese, 3B
7. Matt Adams, 1B
8. Rajai Davis, CF

    Bench

• Kolten Wong
• Jon Jay
• Daniel Descalso
• Shane Robinson
• Tony Cruz

While not perfect (Adams only hit .231 against lefties in 2013), its still an improvement over the 2013 lineup and would give the Cardinals a more balanced team against both lefties and righties.

Cardinals and Michael Wacha whallop Dodgers to advance to World Series.

Well, so much for the pitchers' duel.

Michael Wacha did his part, shutting out the Dodgers for 7 innings on just 2 hits and a walk.  In the process, he lowered his postseason ERA to an absurd 0.43 while improving to 3-0. He also became just the third rookie to win 2 games in a LCS, along with Tim Belcher (1988) and Tim Wakefield (1992) and was named the NLCS MVP.

Not too shabby for a pitcher in just his second year of professional baseball.

As for his counterpart, Dodgers' ace Clayton Kershaw, well he didn't fare so well.

The Cardinals offense awoke from its postseason slumber to pummel Kershaw to the tune of 7 runs on 10 hits in 4 plus innings.  The Cards ended up with 9 runs on the night, scoring 4 in the third and 5 in the 5th.

The Cards may have gotten the benefit of a questionable ball four call to Matt Adams in the third, that led to a couple more runs, but they were already up 2-0 and didn't really need any help.  Not the way Wacha was pitching.


Now the Cardinals move on to the World Series while the "Mickey Mouse" Dodgers head back to Disneyland.  

There will be a bit of a layoff for the Cards--the World Series does not start until Wednesday, October 23rd.  While that will allow Mike Matheny to set up his rotation, likely with Adam Wainwright starting game one and Wacha starting game two, I'm sure the hitters would rather get right back out there after finally breaking out tonight.

The Cardinals will await the winner of the Tigers and Red Sox in what could be a rematch of the 2006 or 2004 World Series (or 1968 or 1967 for that matter).

At the same time, Cardinals' fans everywhere will wait to see what Wacha can do next.

Matt Adams trying his best to make Cardinals fans forget about Allen Craig

With Allen Craig injured, the Cardinals offense has been sputtering.  Well, Matt Adams is trying to change all that.

Adams went 3 for 5 tonight, clubbing his 15th homer and driving in 3 to help lift the Cardinals to victory 7-6 over the Brewers.

He is now hitting .371 over his last 10 games with 5 homers and 12 Rbi's. 

Don't get me wrong, the Cardinals would still love to get a healthy Craig back, and quickly.  But, Adams has allowed the Cardinals to survive his absence.  The team has actually gone 10-5 since Craig's injury and increased their NL Central lead to 2 games.

With 15 homers and 48 rbi's in just 264 at bats, its would be very interesting to see what Adams can do in a full-time role.

I think the Cardinals will do everything in their power to give Adams that chance in 2014.

Cardinals offense sorely misses Allen Craig

The Cardinals offense is struggling.

Excluding the 12-run outburst on Sunday, the Cardinals offense has produced just 8 runs in its other 4 games, losing 3 of them.

Its obvious that the Cardinals need Allen Craig back and fast.

Since his injury, the team is hitting just .253 and, although they have had a few outbursts with two 12-run games and a 9 game, the team is averaging just 3 runs a game (excluding those 3 big games).

That's not to blame Matt Adams, Craig's replacement, for the team's struggles on offense.  Adams has hit .289 with 3 homers and 6 rbi's in 11 games since Craig's injury, however, no one player can replace Craig's clutch hitting.

Craig is hitting an astounding .454 with RISP this year, which leads all of baseball.  In 152 plate appearance with a RISP, Craig has driven in 83 runs (including 4 homers).  That is an incredible rate of success.

It hasn't helped that two of the Cardinals big bats, Carlos Beltran (.189) and Yadier Molina (.250, but just .148 excluding his 4 for 5 performance on Sunday) have not been hitting.

The Cardinals have been a feast or famine team all season, scoring 7 or more runs in 38 games.  Their only loss when scoring 7 or more runs, came back on April 3rd when they lost 10-9 against the Diamondbacks.

The Cardinals lead the NL in run differential, with 155 more runs scored than given up, yet they are tied in the NL Central with the Pirates, who have the smallest run differential (44) of all of the NL contenders.

As to Craig, his return is still up in the air.  He was put in a walking boot (again) last Thursday, which he was supposed to keep on "for a week or so".  Even if he gets it off this week, its unclear how long it will take him to be game ready.

For now, the Cardinals have to keep plugging along and try to muster some offense without him. 

The Future is bright for the Cardinals....

...and the present is pretty bright too.

While other teams (such as the Cubs) spend years rebuilding, the Cardinals have found success retooling each year, making them seemingly perennial contenders.

Part of that success comes from a farm system that keeps churning out major leaguers at a nice rate, while also supplementing that farm system with wise investments in free agents.

Lose Albert Pujols to free agency.  No problem, we'll just add Carlos Beltran and not miss a beat.

If the only thing that Cardinals fans have to complain about is the lack of production from their shortstop and center fielder, while the team ranks first in the NL in runs scored, then you've got a pretty good team.

So, while we idle through the dog days of August, let's take a peek into the future and look at what the Cardinals 2014 lineup and starting rotation might look like.

2014 Lineup

The big decision here is whether or not to resign Beltran. I've already discussed the argument against resigning Beltran as well as the case for bringing him back on a short-term deal.  Other decisions will be who plays second and third and whether the Cardinals want to try to find an upgrade at short.

If it were up to me, I would let Beltran walk and give youngsters such at Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras a chance to replace him.  Then trade John Jay and either David Freese or Kolten Wong for an upgrade elsewhere.

Thus, my regular lineup for 2014 would look something like this:

1. Matt Carpenter, 2B
2. Oscar Taveras, CF
3. Matt Holliday, LF
4. Allen Craig, RF
5. Yadier Molina, C
6. Matt Adams, 1B
7. David Freese/Kolten Wong, 3B/2B
8. Pete Kozma (or possible upgrade), SS
9. pitcher

2014 Starting Rotation

Things are a whole lot murkier in regards to the Cardinals starting rotation.

First, Jake Westbrook is gone after this season.  That's pretty much a given.

After that, there has been talk of the Cardinals possibly bringing back Chris Carpenter, even though he might be a long shot to ever pitch again.  As much as Carpenter has done for the Cards over the years, I think its time for the team to move on.

The Cards also have two excellent pitching prospects in Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez waiting in the wings.  In addition, there is John Gast and Tyler Lyons to consider as well.  Plus, let's not forget about Jaime Garcia, who should be healthy by next spring (maybe even in time for this year's playoffs). 

Add those guys to projected holdovers Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and we could be looking at 9 pitchers vying for 5 spots. 

The way I see it, if Garcia's proves himself healthy after shoulder surgery, he'll likely occupy a rotation spot along with Wainwright, Miller and Lynn. 

Gast, who had shoulder surgery of his own in July, will likely return to AAA to prove he's healthy.  Lyons, while excellent at AAA, has yet to prove he can get major leaguers out, so he'll likely stay at AAA or be used as trade bait.

Which likely leaves us with Kelly, Wacha and Martinez battling it out for the last rotation spot. 

This could then turn out to be a similar battle to this spring's 5th starter battle between Miller, Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal.  I think, like Miller, the Cardinals will want Wacha to win the battle and then will convert Martinez to a reliever (like Rosenthal) and possibly either trade Kelly or send him back to purgatory (i.e. long relief).

Thus, this is how I see the 2014 starting rotation shaping up:

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Shelby Miller
3. Lance Lynn
4. Jaime Garcia
5. Michael Wacha

As you can see, the Cardinals have a lot of options for their 2014 lineup and starting rotation.  This is my take on how it might all shake out.  What's yours?

Elvis Andrus is available. Should the Cardinals be interested?

According to Jon Paul Morosi and Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports, the Rangers have apparently made everyone available, including short stop Elvis Andrus. The team is seeking another bat, given the uncertainty surrounding Nelson Cruz and a potential suspension from Biogenesis, with Jim Bowden indicating that they are targeting outfielders, not DH's. 

Given the Cardinals need for an upgrade at short, would trading for Andrus make sense?

Well, that depends on what the Cardinals might have to give up for him.

If the Rangers want Oscar Taveras, I would hang up the phone and walk away. 

The Cardinals could offer up Matt Adams, but he is not an outfielder and the Rangers might want more.

Of course, the Cardinals and Rangers could make the often rumored, but never really discussed trade of Jurickson Profar for Taveras, but we've been down that road before and its unlikely to happen.

Finally, do the Cardinals really even want Andrus at this point?  After signing a 8-year, $120 million extension with the Rangers, Andrus appears to be suffering from post-big contract syndrome, hitting only .250/.310/.289.  His .599 OPS is only slightly better than Pete Kozma's .584 mark. 

So, even though Tim Dierkes of MLBtraderumors thinks Andrus would be a logical fit for the Cardinals, I just don't see the Cards making that move at this time.

MLB needs to hold umpires, like Dan Bellino, accountable for their actions

MLB umpires are getting out of hand and the league is doing little about it.

Last night's game between the Cubs and Cardinals was yet another example of an umpire trying to make himself bigger than the game.

After getting called out on strikes last night, Matt Adams questioned the call on his way back to the dugout.  It was a mild and low-key protest, but apparently, this did not sit well with umpire Dan Bellino, who took off his mask and shoo'd Adams away.

Cardinals Manager Mike Matheny took exception to Bellino's treatment of Adams and, after the final out was recorded, confronted Bellino as he approached the dugout.  Needless to say, things got a little heated (video).

Matheny was ejected, after the game was already over, and could possibly face a fine or suspension.  Meanwhile, Bellino is free to ump another game.

Here's what Matheny had to say about Bellino at his press conference:

“It had more to do with the umpire and how he mistreated one of our players. It had nothing to do with the call. It had everything to do with him going too far. You can’t take your mask off and motion somebody away. We haven’t had any trouble. We haven’t been complaining all game long.  He wanted to be seen, so now he’s going to be seen.”

Its just another example in a long line of examples where umpires try to make themselves the stars of the game.

Earlier in the year, Tampa Bay's pitcher David Price was furious with umpire Tom Hallion after Hallion allegedly swore at Price as the pitcher walked off the field.  Price was fined $1,000, as was Hallion, but it obviously is not enough to deter umpires from grandstanding.

Last year, MLB suspended umpire Bob Davidson for "repeated violations" of baseball's "standards for situation handling" and writer Dave Sheinin of the Washington Post called it a step in the right direction. 

However, this year the only umpire suspension occurred after the umpires screwed up the pitcher substitution rules in an Angels/Astros game. 

Escalating arguments and (unintentionally) blowing calls are one thing, but there are also instances where it appears that umpires intentionally miss a call to get back at a player for supposedly "showing them up". 

One example is the Brett Lawrie incident last year with umpire Bill Miller (video).  On a 3-1 count, Lawrie took what he thought was a ball and starting trotting down to first, thinking he earned a walk.  Miller called the pitch a strike though, earning a bewildered look from Lawrie.  However, you just knew what was going to happen next.  Sure enough, the next pitch was even more clearly a ball and Miller still rung Lawrie up.  Its just one of many examples of an ump exacting his revenge on a player.

Jose Bautista has been claiming for a while that umpires are out to get him, because of how he reacts to bad calls. His anger probably doesn't help him, but at least one study shows that he gets more than his fair share of bad calls.

Another example of a player who may get unfair treatment because of his reputation as a bit of a hot head is Bryce Harper.  Harper was ejected from a game earlier this year when a check swing call by John Hirschbeck went against him.  Harper raised his arms in a "what gives" manner, which Hirschbeck took exception to, walked straight at Harper, yelling at him and challenging him to do something to warrant the ejection Hirschbeck was just itching to give.  Harper obliged by flipping his bat and helmet and was immediately ejected (video).

Umpires are suppose to defuse situations, not escalate them.  There are too many umpires that want to make themselves the center of attention.  They intentionally miss calls so that they can eject players for revenge or try to instigate things because of a players' reputation.  Yet, they never suffer any consequences.  Bottom line, MLB has to start holding umpires accountable for their actions with longer suspensions and stiffer fines, otherwise these incidents will continue unabated.

Why the Cardinals should pass on extending Carlos Beltran.

About a year and a half ago, the Cardinals were in a bind, they had just lost their icon, Albert Pujols, to the Los Angeles Angels and needed to find someone to replace him.  Two weeks later, they signed Carlos Beltran.  Little did they know at the time, but in the 1 1/2 season since then, Beltran would actually out produce Pujols, hitting .282/.347/.512 with 50 homers to Pujols' .275/.338/.491 with 43 homers.

Now that Beltran is facing his own contract year with the Cardinals, there has been a general groundswell of support for signing Beltran to an extension.

It started with Beltran's own admission that he wants to stay in St. Louis, saying "I really love playing here. There's no doubt about it. I experienced something here last year that I hadn't experienced in a long time. It was a good clubhouse and so many good people, playing in front of these fans. They really support you when you do well and when you do terrible. It's a great feeling. Playing in a city like this, it makes everything easy."

From there Bernie Miklasz jumped on the bandwagon, saying "put me in the pro-Beltran camp, at least for now."

He has since been joined by the likes of Corey Rudd (StlSportsMinute.com) and Cardinals fans on message boards.

It seems like every Cardinals fan believes the team should bring back Beltran...except me.

I think it would be a mistake for the Cards to bring Beltran back, for the following reasons:

Age

Beltran turns 37 next April 24 and while his age may not show in his current stats (.308/.349/.546), you can see it taking a toll on his body.  Knee problems may have led to his poor second half last season and he wasn't 100% at the start of this season due to a broken toe.

As we saw with Lance Berkman, after the Cardinals signed him to an extension after his stellar 2010 season, a player past his prime with previous knee problems is a high-risk proposition.

In addition, unless you are a 'roid enhanced guy like Barry Bonds, baseball skills generally decline with age.  So, while Beltran may be performing well this season, the chances of a repeat are slim.

The Outfield Logjam

Heading into next season, the Cardinals could have 5 players--Matt Holliday, John Jay, Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig and Matt Adams vying for 4 spots (including first base).  Add Beltran to that mix and things really get crowded.

Taveras, when healthy, looks like he can step in and contribute right away.  Other than his first season with the Cardinals Dominican League team, Taveras has hit above .300 each season and is starting to show the power that everyone has said would come.  Between him and Adams, the Cardinals should be able to replace a good portion of the offense that Beltran has provided.

Team Philosophy

As Bill Baer of ESPN points out, the Cardinals have played it smart when building their teams over the years.  General Manager John Mozeliak has, mostly, "eschewed expensive, long-term free-agent contracts in favor of young, cost-controlled players from within the organization, short-term free-agent contracts and contract extensions for key players such as catcher Yadier Molina."

Beltran is an example of a short-term free-agent signing by the Cards and while it might make some sense to bring back Beltran on another short-term (preferably one year) contract, what it really comes down to is...

Money

Beltran is making $13 million this year and it would probably take a similar amount to bring him back for another year.  After signing Adam Wainwright to a 5-year, $97.5 million extension in March, the Cardinals are probably looking to save money elsewhere and Beltran is one luxury they can do without.

Take that money and apply it to other areas of need, such as shortstop or some bullpen help, and the Cards will come out ahead, just like they did when Pujols left.

Bottom line, unless Beltran is willing to take a one-year deal at a steep discount, that both limits the Cardinals risk while also allowing them to address other areas of need, the Cardinals should thank him for his service to the team and move on after this season.