What would the Cardinals look like if they had resigned Albert Pujols?

With the Cardinals in the World Series and the Los Angeles Angels not even making the playoffs, its easy to say that the Cards made the right decision in letting Pujols walk after the 2011 season.  Scott Miller of CBS Sports basically says that the Cardinals are better off without Pujols, and I tend to agree with him.

But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract.  What might the Cardinals look like today?

Carlos Beltran

First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran.  Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract.  Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.

Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team.  He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.

Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field.  However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.

Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty

If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.

While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.

However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat.  Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason.  Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation.  The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.

As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect.  He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future.  If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.

Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions

The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.

Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.

With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact.  However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year).  (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).

Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold.  However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.

Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team.  Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash.  Sure, the Cardinals  wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result.  But, they still would have been a playoff team.

The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams.  Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright.  Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements.  Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano). 

In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.

Is Yadier Molina more valuable than Albert Pujols?

A few months after the St. Louis Cardinals lost Albert Pujols to the Las Angeles Angels, they signed catcher Yadier Molina to an extension.  One can infer from the timing that, losing Pujols freed up the money the Cards needed to make the Molina deal and, with that, the Cardinals made Molina the face of the franchise.

Of course, ask any Cardinals fan back then who they would rather have, they would say Pujols.  Now, I'm not so sure.

In his first American League season, Pujols struggled out of the gate and had the worst season of his career (albeit still a very good season).  Meanwhile, Molina had a breakout year for the Cards. 

Which leads to the question is Molina more valuable that Pujols, at least going forward?

Looking at their raw stats, there is not much difference between the two:

Pujols - .285/.343/.516, .859 OPS (141 OPS+), 30 HR's
Molina - .315/.373/.501, .874 OPS (137 OPS+), 22 HR's

However, when you look at their sabermetrics, its pretty clear that Molina had the better year.

Take, for instance, their 2012 wins above replacement (WAR) per Fangraphs:

Pujols 3.6 WAR
Molina 6.2 WAR

In addition, Pujols has been in a steady decline over the last few years.  Here are his WAR's from 2009 to 2012:

2009:  8.7
2010:  7.0
2011:  4.3
2012:  3.6

At the same time, Molina's WARs have increased the last few years:

2010:  2.6
2011:  4.4
2012:  6.2

Pujols, at 33, is 3 years older than Molina (and some still question if that is Pujols' true age) and appears to be in the decline phase of his career.  While Molina is still in his prime. 

Plus, WAR cannot measure the intangibles that Molina brings, such as handling the pitching staff, as well as things like framing pitches to get a called strike. 

That's not to say that Pujols cannot have a bounce back year or that Molina might, as a catcher, go into a decline earlier than most everyday players.  But, going forward, I think that Molina will be the better value and considering that he makes $10 million less a year, he is an absolute bargain.

For Cardinals Top Prospect Oscar Taveras, how soon in now?

OK, you'll have to forgive the lame Smiths reference, but many Cardinals fans, including myself, are wondering when will Oscar Taveras make it to the big leagues.

Could he pull an Albert Pujols and force his way into the Cardinals lineup this year? 

If you recall, Pujols was not expected to make the roster in 2001.  He only had 14 at bats above high A ball and was ticketed for Memphis (AAA) to start the season.

However, Pujols impressed the Cardinals brass so much during Spring Training that they were forced to find a spot for him.  Then when Bobby Bonilla got hurt, the Cardinals used his roster spot for Pujols and the rest is history.

Fast forward to 2013 and the Cardinals could face a similar situation.

Taveras is expected to start the season at AAA, but could potentially force his way into the Cardinals plans for 2013.  According to Derrick Goold, Taveras will get a good look this spring.  With Carlos Beltran playing in the World Baseball Classic and Matt Holliday not expected to play everyday during the spring, Taveras will get ample at bats.  How he performs could go a long way towards making his case for a roster spot.


In the spring of 2001, Pujols, primarily a third baseman at the time, was also practicing in the outfield and at first, giving him more positional flexibility.  Thus, although the 2001 Cardinals had a set lineup at each position, Pujols wound up playing 55 games at third, 42 at first, 39 in left and 39 in right in his rookie year, allowing him to amass 590 at bats.

For Taveras, while he is limited to the outfield,  he can play all 3 spots.  Thus, while the Cardinals appear to have a set lineup, Brian Feldman suggests that the Cardinals could find at bats for Taveras by having him platoon with Beltran in right, play one game a week to spell Jay, fill in occasionally for Holliday and DH in interleague games.

The Cardinals could possibly trade one of their outfielders to make room for Taveras, but they may want to see how he performs at the major league level first before doing so, which makes Feldman's suggestion even more plausible.

Its easy to look at Taveras' minor league stats and get excited about his future with the Cardinals.  Take a look at the stats for Pujols' 2000 minor league season (his only season in the minors) compared to Taveras' 2012 minor league season:

Albert Pujols

Year	Age	Lev	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	20	A-A+-AAA	490	74	154	41	7	19	96	46	47	.314	.378	.543	.920

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2013.

Oscar Taveras

Year	Age	Lev	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	20	AA	477	83	153	37	7	23	94	42	56	.321	.380	.572	.953

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2013.

They are eerily similar, with Taveras showing slightly more power, while Pujols' contact rate of 90.4% was slightly better than Taveras' 88.3%. 

Looking at those stats, I have little doubt that Taveras will succeed in the majors.  The only remaining question is: How soon?