Cardinals (lack of) offense is troubling

Despite holding a 2-1 lead in the NLCS, the lack of offense from the Cardinals, especially after tonight's 3-0 loss, is becoming a concern.  For the series, the Cardinals have scored only 4 runs while hitting just .134.  This follows a NLDS series in which they hit only .209 as a team.

In addition, the team that led the major in hitting with RISP with a .330 average is hitting only .194 with RISP this postseason.

I understand that the pitching in the postseason is much better than that of the regular season, but the drop off has been precipitous.

Taking the first two games against the Dodgers pair of aces, Zack Greinke and Clayton Kershaw, was fortuitous, given that the Cardinals did so while scoring only 4 runs, but the Cards offense will have to pick it up if they want to win this series.

I also understand that the Cardinals have struggled all year against lefties, hitting only .238 as a team, so getting shut out by lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu does not come as a big surprise.

However, call me a pessimist, but I do not have a warm and fuzzy feeling about this series.

This series is starting to remind me of the 1985 World Seires against the Kansas City Royals.  The Cardinals took a 3-1 lead in the series before losing the last 3 games.  Part of the blame for losing that series can be placed on Don Denkinger, but it did not help that the Cardinals could only manage 2 runs over the last 3 games, including a 13-0 whitewash in the 7th game.  They hit only .185 for the series.

The good news is that the Cardinals have excellent pitching of their own and a couple wins under their belt.  The way both teams are pitching, it may only take one or two runs to win a game.

However, I would feel a lot more comfortable if the Cardinals could break out with a big game or two. 

Cardinals offense sorely misses Allen Craig

The Cardinals offense is struggling.

Excluding the 12-run outburst on Sunday, the Cardinals offense has produced just 8 runs in its other 4 games, losing 3 of them.

Its obvious that the Cardinals need Allen Craig back and fast.

Since his injury, the team is hitting just .253 and, although they have had a few outbursts with two 12-run games and a 9 game, the team is averaging just 3 runs a game (excluding those 3 big games).

That's not to blame Matt Adams, Craig's replacement, for the team's struggles on offense.  Adams has hit .289 with 3 homers and 6 rbi's in 11 games since Craig's injury, however, no one player can replace Craig's clutch hitting.

Craig is hitting an astounding .454 with RISP this year, which leads all of baseball.  In 152 plate appearance with a RISP, Craig has driven in 83 runs (including 4 homers).  That is an incredible rate of success.

It hasn't helped that two of the Cardinals big bats, Carlos Beltran (.189) and Yadier Molina (.250, but just .148 excluding his 4 for 5 performance on Sunday) have not been hitting.

The Cardinals have been a feast or famine team all season, scoring 7 or more runs in 38 games.  Their only loss when scoring 7 or more runs, came back on April 3rd when they lost 10-9 against the Diamondbacks.

The Cardinals lead the NL in run differential, with 155 more runs scored than given up, yet they are tied in the NL Central with the Pirates, who have the smallest run differential (44) of all of the NL contenders.

As to Craig, his return is still up in the air.  He was put in a walking boot (again) last Thursday, which he was supposed to keep on "for a week or so".  Even if he gets it off this week, its unclear how long it will take him to be game ready.

For now, the Cardinals have to keep plugging along and try to muster some offense without him. 

What do the Cardinals do with Jon Jay and center field?

Cardinals' Nation is abuzz about John Jay and his production (or lack thereof).  Many are calling for the Cardinals to make a change and soon.

Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.

John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.

Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay.  However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.

So, what is the answer?

The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs.  Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?

Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves.  Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable.  But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds.  Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".

However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras.  Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over.  While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.

After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.

Cardinals could use a spark, but from where?

The Cardinals ended the month of June with an uninspiring 14-14 record. 

The main culprit has been the once reliable starting pitching.  After dominating for two months, all of the starters, save for Adam Wainwright, posted ERA's above 4.00 during June.  

But the pitching isn't the only thing that should shoulder the blame.  The offense has also been inconsistent, often showing a feast or famine tendency. 

Its obvious that the Cards could use a spark to get them rolling again, but from where?

Here are the possibilities:

Trades

With the calendar turning to July, the trade market is sure to pick up.  If the Cardinals want to help their beleaguered starting rotation, there are plenty of starters on the market. 

However, two of the top sellers of starting pitching at this year's deadline reside in the NL Central (the Cubs and Brewers) and the Cards have said that trading within the division is "not desirable".

The Marlins have made Ricky Nolasco available and the Astros have Bud Norris on the block, but is either one enough to provide the boost the Cardinals need?

The Cards could always go "all-in" and trade for the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but it would likely gut their farm system in the process.  Would the Cardinals mortgage their future for Lee?

Minors

The most obvious way to spark the Cardinals offense would be to replace the struggling John Jay with Oscar Taveras.  However, Taveras has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month and currently resides on the 7-day D.L.  Once healthy, he could be a viable option later this month.

Another possibility is to call up Carlos Martinez for the starting rotation and put Lance Lynn in the bullpen.  Lynn appears to be going through the same mid-season funk that he did last year, posting a 4.83 ERA in June.  However, despite his struggles, he has still managed to go 3-1 for the month.

Martinez could also be used to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation.  Westbrook had the worst month of any starter still in the rotation, posting a 5.32 ERA while going 2-2 in his 4 starts.  Westbrook could possibly then be used as a trade chip with another contending team.

My guess is that the Cardinals will just make minor trades here or there, either adding an arm for the bullpen or finding a right handed bat for the bench and hope that the regulars get back on track.  But, if the team's struggles continue through July, don't be surprised to see Taveras or Martinez called up by the end of the month.

Injuries continue to plague Cardinals

After a spring that has already seen Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal lost for the season, the Cardinals have had more injury concerns crop up in the last week.

Yesterday, David Freese was placed on the disabled list with a back injury.  Ryan Jackson was added to the roster to replace him.

What this means for the start of the season is that Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals starting second baseman, will shift over to third while Daniel Descalso mans second.  The Cards hope to have Freese back in time for the April 8th home opener, but considering he injured his back 3 weeks ago and its still bothering him, that is not a given.

The other injury concern is Carlos Beltran.  He's been bothered by a sore right pinkie toe since before the World Baseball Classic and is scheduled to take part in the game today.  It doesn't sound like its a major concern, as Beltran played through the WBC with the injury, but its still worth keeping an eye on.

If a trip to the DL is necessary for Beltran, which doesn't seem likely at this point, it would likely guarantee a roster spot for the Cardinals top prospect Oscar Taveras.

However, what intrigues me with the Beltran injury is that maybe the Cardinals could decide to go with Taveras as their 4th outfielder, instead of Shane Robinson or Adron Chambers.  As Brian Feldman suggested a while back, Taveras could get plenty of at bats at the major league level by splitting time with Beltran while also spelling John Jay and Matt Holliday on occassion.

The Cardinals still have Taveras in major league camp, probably just as insurance in case Beltran is not ready to go, but there's still the possibility that, as Feldman's suggests, Taveras' time is now.

Rafael Furcal's injury has Cardinals rumor mill abuzz

With Rafael Furcal lost for the season, there has been a steady stream of rumors linking the Cardinals to every shortstop that is or could be available.

Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe suggests that the Red Sox could trade Stephen Drew should Jose Iglesias prove ready.  The Cardinals pursued Drew this offseason, before losing out to Boston.

Dan Szymborski of ESPN Insider says that Elvis Andrus is the perfect fit for the Cards and they could get him in exchange for a pitching prospect, such as Trevor Rosenthal, Shelby Miller or Carlos Martinez.

Ben Nicholson-Smith of MLBTraderumors notes that the Diamondbacks are looking to trade John McDonald and that the Cards could consider him as well.

Finally, there is Troy Tulowitzki, the biggest name being bandied about in trade rumors, however, per Jon Heyman, the Cardinals have not contacted the Rockies about Tulo and Colorado has no interest in trading him anyway.

Despite all the rumors, the Cardinals do not appear to be looking for immediate help.  According to Ben Nicholson-Smith, GM John Mozeliak told reporters after the Furcal injury that "From the immediate standpoint, I think we’re OK.  Now, as the season develops, if we don’t feel that things are going as we hoped, then we explore other options. But I think in the short-term, we feel comfortable where we’re at."

In addition, Joe Strauss states that the loss of Furcal is not a crisis and that, as long as Pete Kozma can play acceptable defense until the trade market develops, the Cardinals will be fine. 

Thus, as I surmised last week, it appears that the Cardinals will wait until at least the July trade deadline to try to shore up their short stop deficiencies.  At that time, the Cardinals should have a better idea as to where they stand as a team and whether Kozma can cut it at short. 

Cardinals second base battle to continue into the season

According to Derrick Goold, the Cardinals second base battle will continue into the regular season, with "performance and need dictating the starter."

What does this all mean?

Well, it means that what once started as an experiment to find another way to get Matt Carpenter's bat into the lineup and make him into a super utility player is quickly becoming a potential regular gig for Carpenter.

With the recent news that Rafael Furcal is done for the season, the Cardinals are probably looking for more offense from their middle infield positions.  Pete Kozma could provide some offense at short, but he is still an unknown quantity, having only played 42 games in the majors.

Carpenter, on the other hand, has hit .283/.359/.447 in 311 at bats in the majors, including a .294/.365/.463 line in 2012.  Getting regular at bats at second for him could help offset the loss of Furcal.  In addition, it gives the Cards the opportunity to use Daniel Descalso at short.

With both Descalso and Carpenter hitting left handed, the Cardinals cannot use a straight platoon with them.  More likely, Carpenter will start the majority of games with Descalso coming off the bench as a defensive replacement late in games. The Cardinals could also choose to start Descalso when sinkerballer Jake Westbrook is on the mound.

In any case, the Cardinals appear comfortable with Carpenter at second and it may be Descalso who now holds down the super utility role.

Can we really blame Rafael Furcal for the Cardinals shortstop mess?

With the latest setback for Rafael Furcal likely knocking him out for the early part of the season, if not longer, there has been a lot of vitriol spewed in Furcal's direction.  But is it really warranted?

According to Jennifer Langosch, back in 2012, when he suffered the injury, Furcal was examined by team medical director George Paletta who diagnosed him with a grade 2 UCL strain.  Paletta did not recommend surgery, but instead recommended aggressive therapy and platelet-rich plasma injections.  Furcal was re-evaluated a month later and the Cardinals saw enough improvement to continue that course.

Surgery was never an option at that time, as echoed by GM John Mozeliak yesterday when he stated "At the time, you couldn’t have found a surgeon who would have recommended surgery, so I don’t think that was an option.”

Did Furcal experience pain during his rehab or any other indications that this course of treatment was not working?  We do not know for sure, but everything seemed to be going fine until Furcal made a sidearm throw last Thursday, which appears to have led to new ligament damage.

So, we cannot blame Furcal for the Cardinals predicament.  Sure, he did not want to have surgery, but none of the doctors consulted recommended surgery anyway.

No, the real blame here falls on the Cardinals for not having an adequate backup plan.

The Cards must have known there was a risk that this rest and rehab process would not work, but the only steps they took to put a backup plan in place was to sign Ronny Cedeno. 

Now the Cardinals have a hole to fill in their lineup, possibly for the entire season, and the best they can come up with is some combination of Cedeno, Pete Kozma and possibly Ryan Jackson.  None of whom inspire confidence.

Perhaps the Cards can swing a trade either now or around the trade deadline, but they will have lost what little leverage they might have had.

In any case, the Cardinals have managed to win without a quality shortstop in the past and it looks like they will have to do so again this year.

Early look at Cardinals Spring Training battles

Heading into this spring, there were two key spots that were up for grabs for the Cardinals, second base and 5th starter.  After one week of games, here's how those battles are shaping up:

Second Base

This is a 3 horse race between incumbent Daniel Descalso, convert Matt Carpenter and rising prospect Kolten Wong. 

After a down season offensively last year, Descalso is fighting to hold onto his job this spring.  He plays solid defense, but his lack of offense hurts him.  He is hitting .250 (3 for 12) so far this spring.

Carpenter, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit in the majors, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the position defensively.  He is hitting .273 (3 for 11) so far.

Wong, who is excellent defensively, is expected to develop into a solid hitter.  However, he probably needs more time to develop.  He is hitting .333 (3 for 9) this spring.

Overall, I expect Descalso to hold onto the job.  Carpenter will end up as a super utility player and Wong will likely start the season in AAA.  However, if Wong gets off to a fast start in the minors, a mid-season callup is not out of the question.

5th Starter

Here's where things get really interesting.  The Cardinals have 3 pitchers vying for the 5th starter job, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly. 

Miller is considered the favorite, but early shoulder discomfort set him back a week or so and he has yet to pitch in a spring game.

Rosenthal has made two appearances so far this spring.  His first outing, in which he admittedly was pressing, was a bit of a disaster, allowing 4 runs in 2 IP.  He bounced back nicely yesterday, allowing just 1 run in 3 IP. 

Despite his stellar efforts filling in for injured starter Jaime Garcia last season, Kelly is kind of the forgotten man in this year's battle.  He is making his first appearance this spring today and we'll see if he can impress the Cardinals enough to edge out the higher upside competition.

It should be noted that, after two stellar outings, Michael Wacha has entered into the conversation for the 5th starter spot.  However, I think it is in his (and the Cardinals) best interest for him to start the season in the minors.

Overall, I still can see Miller winning this battle, with Kelly being the long man in the Cards bullpen and Rosenthal starting the season at AAA as the Cardinals "6th" starter.  However, at this point the race is still wide open.

I will continue to keep an eye on these battles each week, so stop by each Friday for updates.

For Cardinals Top Prospect Oscar Taveras, how soon in now?

OK, you'll have to forgive the lame Smiths reference, but many Cardinals fans, including myself, are wondering when will Oscar Taveras make it to the big leagues.

Could he pull an Albert Pujols and force his way into the Cardinals lineup this year? 

If you recall, Pujols was not expected to make the roster in 2001.  He only had 14 at bats above high A ball and was ticketed for Memphis (AAA) to start the season.

However, Pujols impressed the Cardinals brass so much during Spring Training that they were forced to find a spot for him.  Then when Bobby Bonilla got hurt, the Cardinals used his roster spot for Pujols and the rest is history.

Fast forward to 2013 and the Cardinals could face a similar situation.

Taveras is expected to start the season at AAA, but could potentially force his way into the Cardinals plans for 2013.  According to Derrick Goold, Taveras will get a good look this spring.  With Carlos Beltran playing in the World Baseball Classic and Matt Holliday not expected to play everyday during the spring, Taveras will get ample at bats.  How he performs could go a long way towards making his case for a roster spot.


In the spring of 2001, Pujols, primarily a third baseman at the time, was also practicing in the outfield and at first, giving him more positional flexibility.  Thus, although the 2001 Cardinals had a set lineup at each position, Pujols wound up playing 55 games at third, 42 at first, 39 in left and 39 in right in his rookie year, allowing him to amass 590 at bats.

For Taveras, while he is limited to the outfield,  he can play all 3 spots.  Thus, while the Cardinals appear to have a set lineup, Brian Feldman suggests that the Cardinals could find at bats for Taveras by having him platoon with Beltran in right, play one game a week to spell Jay, fill in occasionally for Holliday and DH in interleague games.

The Cardinals could possibly trade one of their outfielders to make room for Taveras, but they may want to see how he performs at the major league level first before doing so, which makes Feldman's suggestion even more plausible.

Its easy to look at Taveras' minor league stats and get excited about his future with the Cardinals.  Take a look at the stats for Pujols' 2000 minor league season (his only season in the minors) compared to Taveras' 2012 minor league season:

Albert Pujols

Year	Age	Lev	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2000	20	A-A+-AAA	490	74	154	41	7	19	96	46	47	.314	.378	.543	.920

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2013.

Oscar Taveras

Year	Age	Lev	AB	R	H	2B	3B	HR	RBI	BB	SO	BA	OBP	SLG	OPS
2012	20	AA	477	83	153	37	7	23	94	42	56	.321	.380	.572	.953

Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/27/2013.

They are eerily similar, with Taveras showing slightly more power, while Pujols' contact rate of 90.4% was slightly better than Taveras' 88.3%. 

Looking at those stats, I have little doubt that Taveras will succeed in the majors.  The only remaining question is: How soon?