Every December you will see various publications posting their Top 10 lists relating to the concluding year, whether it be top news stories, top sports moments, best defensive plays, etc...
This year CFCL, as part of the United Cardinals Bloggers December project, is joining the fray with the top 5 Cardinals stories for the 2013 season.
My criteria for the top stories are those that I feel impacted the Cardinals the most in their run to the World Series.
So, without further ado, here are my picks for the top 5 Cardinals stories of the year, in countdown order:
5. Edward Mujica steps up
After losing Jason Motte to Tommy John surgery and fill-in closer Mitchell Boggs to ineptitude, the Cardinals were desperate for someone to step up and fill the closer role.
Enter Edward Mujica. After taking over the closer role in mid-April, Mujica saved 35 out of 37 games before tiring down the stretch and losing the closer role to Trevor Rosenthal.
However, make no mistake about it, the Cardinals would not have reached the playoffs without Mujica's quiet efficiency as closer from April to August.
4. Cardinals redefine the term "clutch"
When it comes to hitting with runners in scoring position (RISP), no one did it better than the Cardinals in 2013. As a team, they hit .330 with RISP, nearly 50 points higher than the second place team, the Tigers, who hit .282 with RISP.
Leading the way for the Cardinals was Allen Craig who hit an insane .454 with RISP. In 130 at bats with RISP, Craig had 84 rbi's, despite just 4 homers.
In addition to Craig, Matt Holliday was 4th with RISP with a .390 average, Matt Carpenter was 5th with .388 average and Carlos Beltran 8th with a .374 average.
3. Cardinals rookie pitchers come up big
Due to an seemingly endless string of injuries and ineffectiveness, the Cardinals relied on their rookie pitchers early and often during the 2013 season.
It started with Shelby Miller, who won the 5th starter spot in spring training and finished the season with a 15-9 record, a 3.06 ERA and a third place finish in the ROY voting.
Second on the list was Trevor Rosenthal who absolutely dominated in the setup role, posting a 2.63 ERA and 108 K's in 75.1 innings. He took over the closer role late in the season and locked up the 2014 closer role with 11.2 scoreless innings in the 2013 postseason.
Other key rookie arms were Seth Maness (2.32 ERA and an incredible 4.40 GO/FO ratio), Kevin Siegrist (0.45 ERA in 39.2 innings), Michael Wacha (4-1, 2.78 ERA) and Carlos Martinez (5.08 ERA in the regular season, but a 3.55 ERA as the primary setup man in the playoffs).
2. Adam Wainwright returns to form
After shaking off the rust from Tommy John surgery during an up-and-down 2012 season, Adam Wainwright showed he was back as the Cardinals ace in 2013.
Wainwright was among the top 5 in ERA for most of the season, holding a 2.58 ERA through August 23, before back-to-back poor outings against the Reds ballooned his ERA up to 3.14. He settled down after that to lower his ERA to 2.94, good for 7th in the league while tying for the league lead with 19 wins.
Add to that his leadership and dancing ability, and its easy to see why Waino is a fan favorite.
1. Michael Wacha dominates the postseason
In all my years of watching and following the Cardinals, I am hard-pressed to think of any pitcher, let alone a rookie, who had a better stretch of starts than Michael Wacha did in his first 4 postseason starts.
It started with game 4 of the NLDS against the Pirates. Facing elimination, Wacha no-hit the Buccos through 7.1 innings before allowing a homer against Cardinal killer Pedro Alvarez.
He followed that up by throwing 13.2 scoreless innings against the Dodgers in the NLCS, including 7 innings of 2 hit ball in the decisive 6th game, earning the NLCS MVP award.
He then went on to win game 2 of the World Series, allowing just 2 runs on 3 hits.
All told, Wacha went 4-0 with a 1.00 ERA in his first 4 postseason games.
That he ended up losing the decisive game 6 of the World Series does not diminish his heroics as the Cardinals certainly would not have even made the World Series without him.
I'm sure there are other key moments that I probably have forgotten about, but those are the ones that stood out to me. What's yours?
Showing posts with label Carlos Beltran. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Carlos Beltran. Show all posts
Monday, December 30, 2013
Monday, October 21, 2013
What would the Cardinals look like if they had resigned Albert Pujols?
With the Cardinals in the World Series and the Los Angeles Angels not even making the playoffs, its easy to say that the Cards made the right decision in letting Pujols walk after the 2011 season. Scott Miller of CBS Sports basically says that the Cardinals are better off without Pujols, and I tend to agree with him.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
But it makes one wonder what would have happened had the Cardinals beaten the Angels 10-year, $240 million offer and re-signed Pujols to a 10-year, say $245 million contract. What might the Cardinals look like today?
Carlos Beltran
First off, we would say adios to Carlos Beltran. Shortly after the Cardinals lost Pujols to the Angels, they signed Beltran to a two-year, $26 million contract. Its unlikely this signing would have occurred if Pujols had stayed.
Beltran has done well with the Cards, hitting .282/.343/.493 in his two seasons with the team. He has also hit .308 the last two years in the Playoffs, including 18 rbi's in 23 games.
Without him, Pujols would be at first and Craig would have been in right field. However, with Craig injured for the NLDS and NLCS and Matt Adams (and Pujols, for that matter) unable to play outfield, the Cardinals offense would have had a huge hole.
Michael Wacha/Stephen Piscotty
If the Cardinals had kept Pujols, they would have lost first round pick Michael Wacha and supplemental pick Stephen Piscotty in the 2012 draft.
While Wacha did not have much impact on the regular season the last two years, he has obviously been outstanding this postseason, earning the MVP award in the NLCS.
However, even without Wacha, the Cardinals still might not have missed a beat. Shelby Miller, who was effectively replaced in the rotation by Wacha, did win 15 games this year with a 3.06, but has been used sparingly in the postseason. Or he could have been used in relief, while current postseason setup man, Carlos Martinez, could have been placed in the rotation. The point being, the Cardinals still would have options.
As for Stephen Piscotty, he is often the forgotten man in the life without Pujols discussions, but he is an intriguing prospect. He has hit .295/.362/.458 in 167 minor league games and could be an outfield fixture in the not-so-distant-future. If the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, he would not even be in the picture.
Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig extensions
The final impact that Pujols signing with the Angels had was freeing up money for the Cardinals to sign Yadier Molina, Adam Wainwright and Allen Craig to contract extensions.
Molina was the first to sign, agreeing to a 5-year, $75 million extension in March 2012, with Craig (5-year/$31 million) and Wainwright (5-year, $97.5 million) following in March 2013.
With Craig, the Cardinals effectively bought out his arbitration years with a highly backloaded contract, so his signing did not have much impact. However, both Molina and Wainwright got $7-8 million raises as a result of their extensions, which is roughly equivalent to the difference between Pujols' last Cardinals contract ($16 million) and his Angels deal ($24 million/year). (Note: I realize that Pujols' Angels contract is backloaded too, but I'm using the average value for simplicity sake).
Its possible that, if the Cardinals had resigned Pujols, either Molina or Wainwright would not have been signed to an extension and, given Molina's value to the team, I think Wainwright would have been left out in the cold. However, Wainwright would not be a free agent until after this season, so it would not have had an impact on this year's team.
Overall, I think that, if the Cardinals had signed Pujols to an extension, it would not have had a significant impact on this year's team. Beltran (.836 OPS, 128 OPS+) and Pujols (.823 OPS, 130 OPS+) have put up similar numbers in their two years with their new teams, so that's pretty much a wash. Sure, the Cardinals wouldn't have Wacha and may not have reached the World Series as a result. But, they still would have been a playoff team.
The biggest impact will be on the future Cardinals' teams. Wacha will be in the Cardinals rotation in 2014 as will Wainwright. Beltran will need to be replaced, but the Cardinals have Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras as potential replacements. Plus, the Cardinals will not be paying $24+ million a year to a player who's skills will likely diminish significantly over the course of his contract (think Alfonso Soriano).
In the end, the Cardinals did just fine without him this year and will come out way ahead in the long run.
Sunday, October 6, 2013
Pressure is on Michael Wacha with Cardinals on brink of elimination
Despite Carlos Beltran's best efforts to be a one-man wrecking crew, the Cardinals couldn't overcome the Pirate in game three and now find themselves in a 1-2 hole. Twice the Cards came back from deficits to tie the game, the first time on a two-run single by Beltran in the 5th and the second time on a solo homer by Beltran in the 8th, but the Pirates had all the answers in a 5-3 victory.
Now the Cardinals face elimination and now turn to Michael Wacha to save the team from elimination.
That's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie, especially one with just 64.2 innings of major league experience.
The Cardinals are hoping that Wacha can come through, just as Pirates rookie Gerrit Cole did in game 2.
I was afraid that the Cardinals would find themselves in a hole heading into game 4 after losing game two. Francisco Liriano has been a Cardinal killer all year and I just did not have a good feeling about this game.
The Cards certainly put up a fight and made things interesting, but couldn't finish the job.
Now we get to see what Wacha is made of. He seems capable of shutting down the Pirates, as he was outstanding down the stretch, including 8.2 no-hit innings in his last start of the regular season, but this will be the biggest stage of his young career.
Not the most ideal situation for the Cardinals, but if anyone can do it, Wacha can.
Now the Cardinals face elimination and now turn to Michael Wacha to save the team from elimination.
That's a lot of pressure to put on a rookie, especially one with just 64.2 innings of major league experience.
The Cardinals are hoping that Wacha can come through, just as Pirates rookie Gerrit Cole did in game 2.
I was afraid that the Cardinals would find themselves in a hole heading into game 4 after losing game two. Francisco Liriano has been a Cardinal killer all year and I just did not have a good feeling about this game.
The Cards certainly put up a fight and made things interesting, but couldn't finish the job.
Now we get to see what Wacha is made of. He seems capable of shutting down the Pirates, as he was outstanding down the stretch, including 8.2 no-hit innings in his last start of the regular season, but this will be the biggest stage of his young career.
Not the most ideal situation for the Cardinals, but if anyone can do it, Wacha can.
Tuesday, September 17, 2013
Cardinals offense sorely misses Allen Craig
The Cardinals offense is struggling.
Excluding the 12-run outburst on Sunday, the Cardinals offense has produced just 8 runs in its other 4 games, losing 3 of them.
Its obvious that the Cardinals need Allen Craig back and fast.
Since his injury, the team is hitting just .253 and, although they have had a few outbursts with two 12-run games and a 9 game, the team is averaging just 3 runs a game (excluding those 3 big games).
That's not to blame Matt Adams, Craig's replacement, for the team's struggles on offense. Adams has hit .289 with 3 homers and 6 rbi's in 11 games since Craig's injury, however, no one player can replace Craig's clutch hitting.
Craig is hitting an astounding .454 with RISP this year, which leads all of baseball. In 152 plate appearance with a RISP, Craig has driven in 83 runs (including 4 homers). That is an incredible rate of success.
It hasn't helped that two of the Cardinals big bats, Carlos Beltran (.189) and Yadier Molina (.250, but just .148 excluding his 4 for 5 performance on Sunday) have not been hitting.
The Cardinals have been a feast or famine team all season, scoring 7 or more runs in 38 games. Their only loss when scoring 7 or more runs, came back on April 3rd when they lost 10-9 against the Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals lead the NL in run differential, with 155 more runs scored than given up, yet they are tied in the NL Central with the Pirates, who have the smallest run differential (44) of all of the NL contenders.
As to Craig, his return is still up in the air. He was put in a walking boot (again) last Thursday, which he was supposed to keep on "for a week or so". Even if he gets it off this week, its unclear how long it will take him to be game ready.
For now, the Cardinals have to keep plugging along and try to muster some offense without him.
Excluding the 12-run outburst on Sunday, the Cardinals offense has produced just 8 runs in its other 4 games, losing 3 of them.
Its obvious that the Cardinals need Allen Craig back and fast.
Since his injury, the team is hitting just .253 and, although they have had a few outbursts with two 12-run games and a 9 game, the team is averaging just 3 runs a game (excluding those 3 big games).
That's not to blame Matt Adams, Craig's replacement, for the team's struggles on offense. Adams has hit .289 with 3 homers and 6 rbi's in 11 games since Craig's injury, however, no one player can replace Craig's clutch hitting.
Craig is hitting an astounding .454 with RISP this year, which leads all of baseball. In 152 plate appearance with a RISP, Craig has driven in 83 runs (including 4 homers). That is an incredible rate of success.
It hasn't helped that two of the Cardinals big bats, Carlos Beltran (.189) and Yadier Molina (.250, but just .148 excluding his 4 for 5 performance on Sunday) have not been hitting.
The Cardinals have been a feast or famine team all season, scoring 7 or more runs in 38 games. Their only loss when scoring 7 or more runs, came back on April 3rd when they lost 10-9 against the Diamondbacks.
The Cardinals lead the NL in run differential, with 155 more runs scored than given up, yet they are tied in the NL Central with the Pirates, who have the smallest run differential (44) of all of the NL contenders.
As to Craig, his return is still up in the air. He was put in a walking boot (again) last Thursday, which he was supposed to keep on "for a week or so". Even if he gets it off this week, its unclear how long it will take him to be game ready.
For now, the Cardinals have to keep plugging along and try to muster some offense without him.
Saturday, July 27, 2013
The case for the Cardinals acquiring Cliff Lee
Back in mid-June, I took a look at the possibility of the Cardinals acquiring Cliff Lee. Rumors were swirling that acquiring Lee was a possibility for the Cards, mainly because Lee did not include the Cardinals on his no-trade list.
At that time, I concluded that acquiring Lee would not make sense, mainly because of the costs in terms of prospects and dollars. Besides, all indications at that time were that the Phillies would not trade Lee anyway.
However, a lot can change over a month and a half.
The Cardinals starting pitching, especially Lance Lynn, has struggled. The 5th starter spot is still unsettled and Shelby Miller may be on an innings limit. Add to that the unlikelihood that Chris Carpenter will be able to return and that the Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is now willing to listen on Lee and maybe the Cards should at least consider it.
Since I've already covered why the Cardinals should not acquire Lee, let's take a look at the reasons why acquiring Lee would make sense.
The Cardinals have payroll flexibility
With the contracts of Chris Carpenter ($10.5 million), Jake Westbrook ($7.5 million) and Carlos Beltran ($13 million) coming off the books next year, the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility.
Adam Wainwright extension (basically giving him a $7.5 million raise next year) and arbitration raises for players such as David Freese, Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso will eat away some of those savings. But considering that Bill DeWitt plans on giving the team's payroll a boost, there should be ample room for Lee's $25 million salary.
The Cardinals have minor league depth
As the team with the best minor league system, the Cardinals are one team with the minor league depth to pull off a trade for Lee without seriously depleting their farm system.
The Cardinals could spare a prospect like Kolten Wong, who is blocked at the major league level, and perhaps one of their top pitching prospects, like Carlos Martinez, who appears to be behind Michael Wacha on the Cards depth chart.
Those two, along with a couple lower level prospects should be enough to acquire Lee and would not significantly impact the Cardinals minor league depth.
Prospects are, after all, just prospects
The thing about prospects is that they don't always pan out, no matter how highly regarded they are. Teams always tend to overvalue their own prospects and overhype them to the extent that fans think they are the second coming of Babe Ruth or Cy Young, but they rarely live up to their hype.
Take for instance all of the prospects and players who were traded for Cliff Lee between 2009 and 2010, when he was traded 3 times. The list consists of the following players: Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Philippe Aumont, J.C. Romero, Tyson Gillies, Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matthew Lawson.
All of those players have combined to produce a wins above replacement (WAR) of 6.1 or an average of just 0.6 per player. Take away veteran reliever Romero and his 3.5 WAR from that group and you're left with a combined WAR of just 3.6 or an average of 0.4 per prospect.
So, despite a lot of highly touted prospects changing hands, none of them have gone on to stardom and I'm sure that the teams that traded them have not regretted their decisions.
That's not to say that if the Cardinals traded Wong and Martinez, they wouldn't go on to productive careers with the Phillies. Cardinals fans are still upset about the Dan Haren for Mark Mulder trade. But the odds are still in the Cards favor.
Overall, I'm still probably on the side of passing on Cliff Lee and going with what we've got. But a one-two punch of Wainwright and Lee heading into the playoffs certainly is tempting.
At that time, I concluded that acquiring Lee would not make sense, mainly because of the costs in terms of prospects and dollars. Besides, all indications at that time were that the Phillies would not trade Lee anyway.
However, a lot can change over a month and a half.
The Cardinals starting pitching, especially Lance Lynn, has struggled. The 5th starter spot is still unsettled and Shelby Miller may be on an innings limit. Add to that the unlikelihood that Chris Carpenter will be able to return and that the Phillies GM Ruben Amaro Jr. is now willing to listen on Lee and maybe the Cards should at least consider it.
Since I've already covered why the Cardinals should not acquire Lee, let's take a look at the reasons why acquiring Lee would make sense.
The Cardinals have payroll flexibility
With the contracts of Chris Carpenter ($10.5 million), Jake Westbrook ($7.5 million) and Carlos Beltran ($13 million) coming off the books next year, the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility.
Adam Wainwright extension (basically giving him a $7.5 million raise next year) and arbitration raises for players such as David Freese, Jon Jay and Daniel Descalso will eat away some of those savings. But considering that Bill DeWitt plans on giving the team's payroll a boost, there should be ample room for Lee's $25 million salary.
The Cardinals have minor league depth
As the team with the best minor league system, the Cardinals are one team with the minor league depth to pull off a trade for Lee without seriously depleting their farm system.
The Cardinals could spare a prospect like Kolten Wong, who is blocked at the major league level, and perhaps one of their top pitching prospects, like Carlos Martinez, who appears to be behind Michael Wacha on the Cards depth chart.
Those two, along with a couple lower level prospects should be enough to acquire Lee and would not significantly impact the Cardinals minor league depth.
Prospects are, after all, just prospects
The thing about prospects is that they don't always pan out, no matter how highly regarded they are. Teams always tend to overvalue their own prospects and overhype them to the extent that fans think they are the second coming of Babe Ruth or Cy Young, but they rarely live up to their hype.
Take for instance all of the prospects and players who were traded for Cliff Lee between 2009 and 2010, when he was traded 3 times. The list consists of the following players: Carlos Carrasco, Lou Marson, Jason Donald, Jason Knapp, Philippe Aumont, J.C. Romero, Tyson Gillies, Justin Smoak, Blake Beavan, Josh Lueke and Matthew Lawson.
All of those players have combined to produce a wins above replacement (WAR) of 6.1 or an average of just 0.6 per player. Take away veteran reliever Romero and his 3.5 WAR from that group and you're left with a combined WAR of just 3.6 or an average of 0.4 per prospect.
So, despite a lot of highly touted prospects changing hands, none of them have gone on to stardom and I'm sure that the teams that traded them have not regretted their decisions.
That's not to say that if the Cardinals traded Wong and Martinez, they wouldn't go on to productive careers with the Phillies. Cardinals fans are still upset about the Dan Haren for Mark Mulder trade. But the odds are still in the Cards favor.
Overall, I'm still probably on the side of passing on Cliff Lee and going with what we've got. But a one-two punch of Wainwright and Lee heading into the playoffs certainly is tempting.
Friday, July 26, 2013
The Cardinals can learn a lesson from Alfonso Soriano when it comes to their handling of Carlos Beltran
The Cubs finally pulled off the seemingly impossible today, trading Alfonso Soriano to the Yankees, along with a ton of money, for a minor league prospect to be named later.
Thus ends one of the longest sagas involving a bad contract in recent history.
To get the Yankees to take Soriano off their hands and get a halfway decent prospect in return, the Cubs will eat nearly $18 million of Soriano's remaining contract.
Yes, you heard that right, the Cubs will be paying the Yankees $17.7 million so that Soriano can play for them.
As a Cardinals fan living in Cubs territory, I've been able to witness the Soriano saga first hand. The Cubs grossly overspent on Soriano, signing him to a 8-year, $136 million contract, back when the Tribune Company was trying to win to increase the sales price of the team.
However, after a couple of division titles and zero playoff victories, the Cubs were left with a player who's skills (and knees) were deteriorating and who's play was of far less value than his contract.
Thus, when Albert Pujols became a free agent and was looking for a big contract, although my heart wanted him to stay in St. Louis and retire with the team, in the back of my mind I knew that a long-term contract, like the one he signed with the Angels, could come back to haunt us.
Now the Cardinals are facing a similar dilemma with Carlos Beltran.
Back around the All Star break, Beltran told Derrick Goold that he wanted to play three more years and recently Bernie Miklasz made the case for keeping Beltran.
For the most part I agree with Miklasz, the Cardinals could use Beltran for another year or two. Oscar Taveras has been limited this year due to an ankle injury and may not be ready to take over for Beltran next year. In addition, Jon Jay has not been producing at his usual level, so even if Taveras were ready to start in 2014, maybe it would make more sense to put him in center.
But, the crux of the issue with Beltran is this: How long do the Cardinals want to commit to Beltran and would Beltran be willing to accept a below-market deal to stay with the Cards?
I do not want to see the Cardinals offering Beltran a 3-year deal. My preference, and probably the team's as well, would be a one-year deal with an option for the second year.
If he continues to produce, then there's no problem. But, if his production drops, like it did during the second half of 2012, then the Cardinals will have limited their losses.
The worst thing to do from a team standpoint is to pull another Ty Wigginton move and sign an aging veteran to a 2 or 3 year deal at or (in the case of Wigginton) above market and be stuck with a bad contract.
Injuries happen more often to players as they get older. Look at Lance Berkman, after he signed an extension with the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter is another example.
So, as a team, you have to do everything in your power to limit your exposure to losses, which includes foregoing long-term contracts for shorter contracts for a bit more money per year.
It is a formula that has worked well for the Cardinals in the past and one that they should stick to moving forward.
Thus ends one of the longest sagas involving a bad contract in recent history.
To get the Yankees to take Soriano off their hands and get a halfway decent prospect in return, the Cubs will eat nearly $18 million of Soriano's remaining contract.
Yes, you heard that right, the Cubs will be paying the Yankees $17.7 million so that Soriano can play for them.
As a Cardinals fan living in Cubs territory, I've been able to witness the Soriano saga first hand. The Cubs grossly overspent on Soriano, signing him to a 8-year, $136 million contract, back when the Tribune Company was trying to win to increase the sales price of the team.
However, after a couple of division titles and zero playoff victories, the Cubs were left with a player who's skills (and knees) were deteriorating and who's play was of far less value than his contract.
Thus, when Albert Pujols became a free agent and was looking for a big contract, although my heart wanted him to stay in St. Louis and retire with the team, in the back of my mind I knew that a long-term contract, like the one he signed with the Angels, could come back to haunt us.
Now the Cardinals are facing a similar dilemma with Carlos Beltran.
Back around the All Star break, Beltran told Derrick Goold that he wanted to play three more years and recently Bernie Miklasz made the case for keeping Beltran.
For the most part I agree with Miklasz, the Cardinals could use Beltran for another year or two. Oscar Taveras has been limited this year due to an ankle injury and may not be ready to take over for Beltran next year. In addition, Jon Jay has not been producing at his usual level, so even if Taveras were ready to start in 2014, maybe it would make more sense to put him in center.
But, the crux of the issue with Beltran is this: How long do the Cardinals want to commit to Beltran and would Beltran be willing to accept a below-market deal to stay with the Cards?
I do not want to see the Cardinals offering Beltran a 3-year deal. My preference, and probably the team's as well, would be a one-year deal with an option for the second year.
If he continues to produce, then there's no problem. But, if his production drops, like it did during the second half of 2012, then the Cardinals will have limited their losses.
The worst thing to do from a team standpoint is to pull another Ty Wigginton move and sign an aging veteran to a 2 or 3 year deal at or (in the case of Wigginton) above market and be stuck with a bad contract.
Injuries happen more often to players as they get older. Look at Lance Berkman, after he signed an extension with the Cardinals. Chris Carpenter is another example.
So, as a team, you have to do everything in your power to limit your exposure to losses, which includes foregoing long-term contracts for shorter contracts for a bit more money per year.
It is a formula that has worked well for the Cardinals in the past and one that they should stick to moving forward.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Why the Cardinals should pass on extending Carlos Beltran.
About a year and a half ago, the Cardinals were in a bind, they had just lost their icon, Albert Pujols, to the Los Angeles Angels and needed to find someone to replace him. Two weeks later, they signed Carlos Beltran. Little did they know at the time, but in the 1 1/2 season since then, Beltran would actually out produce Pujols, hitting .282/.347/.512 with 50 homers to Pujols' .275/.338/.491 with 43 homers.
Now that Beltran is facing his own contract year with the Cardinals, there has been a general groundswell of support for signing Beltran to an extension.
It started with Beltran's own admission that he wants to stay in St. Louis, saying "I really love playing here. There's no doubt about it. I experienced something here last year that I hadn't experienced in a long time. It was a good clubhouse and so many good people, playing in front of these fans. They really support you when you do well and when you do terrible. It's a great feeling. Playing in a city like this, it makes everything easy."
From there Bernie Miklasz jumped on the bandwagon, saying "put me in the pro-Beltran camp, at least for now."
He has since been joined by the likes of Corey Rudd (StlSportsMinute.com) and Cardinals fans on message boards.
It seems like every Cardinals fan believes the team should bring back Beltran...except me.
I think it would be a mistake for the Cards to bring Beltran back, for the following reasons:
Age
Beltran turns 37 next April 24 and while his age may not show in his current stats (.308/.349/.546), you can see it taking a toll on his body. Knee problems may have led to his poor second half last season and he wasn't 100% at the start of this season due to a broken toe.
As we saw with Lance Berkman, after the Cardinals signed him to an extension after his stellar 2010 season, a player past his prime with previous knee problems is a high-risk proposition.
In addition, unless you are a 'roid enhanced guy like Barry Bonds, baseball skills generally decline with age. So, while Beltran may be performing well this season, the chances of a repeat are slim.
The Outfield Logjam
Heading into next season, the Cardinals could have 5 players--Matt Holliday, John Jay, Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig and Matt Adams vying for 4 spots (including first base). Add Beltran to that mix and things really get crowded.
Taveras, when healthy, looks like he can step in and contribute right away. Other than his first season with the Cardinals Dominican League team, Taveras has hit above .300 each season and is starting to show the power that everyone has said would come. Between him and Adams, the Cardinals should be able to replace a good portion of the offense that Beltran has provided.
Team Philosophy
As Bill Baer of ESPN points out, the Cardinals have played it smart when building their teams over the years. General Manager John Mozeliak has, mostly, "eschewed expensive, long-term free-agent contracts in favor of young, cost-controlled players from within the organization, short-term free-agent contracts and contract extensions for key players such as catcher Yadier Molina."
Beltran is an example of a short-term free-agent signing by the Cards and while it might make some sense to bring back Beltran on another short-term (preferably one year) contract, what it really comes down to is...
Money
Beltran is making $13 million this year and it would probably take a similar amount to bring him back for another year. After signing Adam Wainwright to a 5-year, $97.5 million extension in March, the Cardinals are probably looking to save money elsewhere and Beltran is one luxury they can do without.
Take that money and apply it to other areas of need, such as shortstop or some bullpen help, and the Cards will come out ahead, just like they did when Pujols left.
Bottom line, unless Beltran is willing to take a one-year deal at a steep discount, that both limits the Cardinals risk while also allowing them to address other areas of need, the Cardinals should thank him for his service to the team and move on after this season.
Now that Beltran is facing his own contract year with the Cardinals, there has been a general groundswell of support for signing Beltran to an extension.
It started with Beltran's own admission that he wants to stay in St. Louis, saying "I really love playing here. There's no doubt about it. I experienced something here last year that I hadn't experienced in a long time. It was a good clubhouse and so many good people, playing in front of these fans. They really support you when you do well and when you do terrible. It's a great feeling. Playing in a city like this, it makes everything easy."
From there Bernie Miklasz jumped on the bandwagon, saying "put me in the pro-Beltran camp, at least for now."
He has since been joined by the likes of Corey Rudd (StlSportsMinute.com) and Cardinals fans on message boards.
It seems like every Cardinals fan believes the team should bring back Beltran...except me.
I think it would be a mistake for the Cards to bring Beltran back, for the following reasons:
Age
Beltran turns 37 next April 24 and while his age may not show in his current stats (.308/.349/.546), you can see it taking a toll on his body. Knee problems may have led to his poor second half last season and he wasn't 100% at the start of this season due to a broken toe.
As we saw with Lance Berkman, after the Cardinals signed him to an extension after his stellar 2010 season, a player past his prime with previous knee problems is a high-risk proposition.
In addition, unless you are a 'roid enhanced guy like Barry Bonds, baseball skills generally decline with age. So, while Beltran may be performing well this season, the chances of a repeat are slim.
The Outfield Logjam
Heading into next season, the Cardinals could have 5 players--Matt Holliday, John Jay, Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig and Matt Adams vying for 4 spots (including first base). Add Beltran to that mix and things really get crowded.
Taveras, when healthy, looks like he can step in and contribute right away. Other than his first season with the Cardinals Dominican League team, Taveras has hit above .300 each season and is starting to show the power that everyone has said would come. Between him and Adams, the Cardinals should be able to replace a good portion of the offense that Beltran has provided.
Team Philosophy
As Bill Baer of ESPN points out, the Cardinals have played it smart when building their teams over the years. General Manager John Mozeliak has, mostly, "eschewed expensive, long-term free-agent contracts in favor of young, cost-controlled players from within the organization, short-term free-agent contracts and contract extensions for key players such as catcher Yadier Molina."
Beltran is an example of a short-term free-agent signing by the Cards and while it might make some sense to bring back Beltran on another short-term (preferably one year) contract, what it really comes down to is...
Money
Beltran is making $13 million this year and it would probably take a similar amount to bring him back for another year. After signing Adam Wainwright to a 5-year, $97.5 million extension in March, the Cardinals are probably looking to save money elsewhere and Beltran is one luxury they can do without.
Take that money and apply it to other areas of need, such as shortstop or some bullpen help, and the Cards will come out ahead, just like they did when Pujols left.
Bottom line, unless Beltran is willing to take a one-year deal at a steep discount, that both limits the Cardinals risk while also allowing them to address other areas of need, the Cardinals should thank him for his service to the team and move on after this season.
Tuesday, March 26, 2013
Injuries continue to plague Cardinals
After a spring that has already seen Chris Carpenter and Rafael Furcal lost for the season, the Cardinals have had more injury concerns crop up in the last week.
Yesterday, David Freese was placed on the disabled list with a back injury. Ryan Jackson was added to the roster to replace him.
What this means for the start of the season is that Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals starting second baseman, will shift over to third while Daniel Descalso mans second. The Cards hope to have Freese back in time for the April 8th home opener, but considering he injured his back 3 weeks ago and its still bothering him, that is not a given.
The other injury concern is Carlos Beltran. He's been bothered by a sore right pinkie toe since before the World Baseball Classic and is scheduled to take part in the game today. It doesn't sound like its a major concern, as Beltran played through the WBC with the injury, but its still worth keeping an eye on.
If a trip to the DL is necessary for Beltran, which doesn't seem likely at this point, it would likely guarantee a roster spot for the Cardinals top prospect Oscar Taveras.
However, what intrigues me with the Beltran injury is that maybe the Cardinals could decide to go with Taveras as their 4th outfielder, instead of Shane Robinson or Adron Chambers. As Brian Feldman suggested a while back, Taveras could get plenty of at bats at the major league level by splitting time with Beltran while also spelling John Jay and Matt Holliday on occassion.
The Cardinals still have Taveras in major league camp, probably just as insurance in case Beltran is not ready to go, but there's still the possibility that, as Feldman's suggests, Taveras' time is now.
Yesterday, David Freese was placed on the disabled list with a back injury. Ryan Jackson was added to the roster to replace him.
What this means for the start of the season is that Matt Carpenter, the Cardinals starting second baseman, will shift over to third while Daniel Descalso mans second. The Cards hope to have Freese back in time for the April 8th home opener, but considering he injured his back 3 weeks ago and its still bothering him, that is not a given.
The other injury concern is Carlos Beltran. He's been bothered by a sore right pinkie toe since before the World Baseball Classic and is scheduled to take part in the game today. It doesn't sound like its a major concern, as Beltran played through the WBC with the injury, but its still worth keeping an eye on.
If a trip to the DL is necessary for Beltran, which doesn't seem likely at this point, it would likely guarantee a roster spot for the Cardinals top prospect Oscar Taveras.
However, what intrigues me with the Beltran injury is that maybe the Cardinals could decide to go with Taveras as their 4th outfielder, instead of Shane Robinson or Adron Chambers. As Brian Feldman suggested a while back, Taveras could get plenty of at bats at the major league level by splitting time with Beltran while also spelling John Jay and Matt Holliday on occassion.
The Cardinals still have Taveras in major league camp, probably just as insurance in case Beltran is not ready to go, but there's still the possibility that, as Feldman's suggests, Taveras' time is now.
Thursday, January 17, 2013
Can the Cardinals afford to sign Adam Wainwright to an extension?
Sometime around the start of Spring Training, the Cardinals will be approached by agent Steve Hammond about an extension for pitcher Adam Wainwright. Here's my analysis of some of the factors that could come into play in the Cardinals decision on Wainwright:
Money
First and foremost is money. Based on recent signings by Matt Cain (6 years/$127.5 million), Zack Greinke (6 years/$147 million) and Cole Hamels (6 years/$144 million), one can expect that Wainwright will command an annual salary in the $22 to $25 million range (probably closer to $25 million). Even if you take away the signing bonuses of $5 million for Cain, $12 million for Greinke and $6 million for Hamels, you're still looking at an average annual salary of $20.5 to $23 million. A pretty hefty sum.
Do the Cardinals have the money to afford that kind of contract? Well, the Cardinals have 3 players who could become free agents after the 2013 season: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran and Jake Westbrook. These 3 players are making $12.5 million, $13 million and $8.75 million, respectively. If the Cards let them walk and replace them with cheaper rookies, such as Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal, then they would have freed up around $33 million of salary.
In addition, Wainwright is making $12 million for 2013, so to get him to $25 million would only take an additional $13 million, leaving the Cards with around $10-15 million to use to fill other holes (after taking into consideration arbitration raises).
So to answer the question in the title of this article, yes the Cardinals can afford to sign Waino to an extension. However, there is more to the question than just money.
Another thing the Cardinals need to look at is...
Contract Length
Of the 3 pitchers I listed above as comparable contracts, Greinke and Hamels are both 29 and Cain is 28. Wainwright, on the other hand, is 32 and just 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery. So, although the standard contract length with all three is a 6 year deal, do the Cardinals want to go that long for Wainwright?
If the Cardinals need an example of the risk of signing a 30+ year old to a long term deal, they need to look no further than Chris Carpenter. Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to a 5 year extension at the age of 31. Carpenter promptly missed most of the next two seasons due to injury.
Then, as if they hadn't learned their lesson, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to another extension in September 2011, this time for 2 years, and he promptly missed most of 2012 with a shoulder injury.
Thus, given his age and his recent Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will need to be cautious when discussing the length of any contract extension with Wainwright. Four years would probably be my limit. If the Cardinals go beyond 4 years, they could be stuck with a hefty contract for an injured or ineffective pitcher, which would likely hamper their ability to compete (see the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano).
Pitching Depth
With both Carpenter and Westbrook potentially leaving as free agents after the season, the Cardinals need someone to help bridge the gap between them and the new wave of pitchers coming up through the system. In addition, with questions surrounding Jaime Garcia and his shoulder, the Cardinals need an anchor on top of the staff.
For those reasons, the Cardinals will probably do what they can to try to get an extension done with Wainwright. Of course, they could always go out and sign a free agent pitcher or trade for a starter to give themselves and experienced pitcher to lead their staff, but Wainwright has one other thing going for him....
History
Who can forget the image of Wainwright, arms raised, after striking out Brandon Inge to end the 2006 World Series. That image alone makes Wainwright an icon is Cardinals history. Fans would obviously be upset if the Cardinals couldn't get an extension done, especially so soon after losing another fan favorite, Albert Pujols.
However, as we learned with Albert Pujols, no one is irreplacable.
The Cardinals have moved on from Pujols and certainly won't think twice about moving on from Wainwright if the asking price or the length of the contract gets to be too much. We aren't the Yankees and there are limits to the amount of money the team can spend.
Overall, I think it would benefit the Cardinals to sign Wainwright to an extension. However, I wouldn't go beyond 4 years. It may take a little more on a per year basis to get him to agree to a shorter deal. I'm thinking that 4 years and $105 million (which includes a $5-10 million bonus) should do the trick.
Money
First and foremost is money. Based on recent signings by Matt Cain (6 years/$127.5 million), Zack Greinke (6 years/$147 million) and Cole Hamels (6 years/$144 million), one can expect that Wainwright will command an annual salary in the $22 to $25 million range (probably closer to $25 million). Even if you take away the signing bonuses of $5 million for Cain, $12 million for Greinke and $6 million for Hamels, you're still looking at an average annual salary of $20.5 to $23 million. A pretty hefty sum.
Do the Cardinals have the money to afford that kind of contract? Well, the Cardinals have 3 players who could become free agents after the 2013 season: Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran and Jake Westbrook. These 3 players are making $12.5 million, $13 million and $8.75 million, respectively. If the Cards let them walk and replace them with cheaper rookies, such as Oscar Taveras, Shelby Miller and Trevor Rosenthal, then they would have freed up around $33 million of salary.
In addition, Wainwright is making $12 million for 2013, so to get him to $25 million would only take an additional $13 million, leaving the Cards with around $10-15 million to use to fill other holes (after taking into consideration arbitration raises).
So to answer the question in the title of this article, yes the Cardinals can afford to sign Waino to an extension. However, there is more to the question than just money.
Another thing the Cardinals need to look at is...
Contract Length
Of the 3 pitchers I listed above as comparable contracts, Greinke and Hamels are both 29 and Cain is 28. Wainwright, on the other hand, is 32 and just 2 years removed from Tommy John surgery. So, although the standard contract length with all three is a 6 year deal, do the Cardinals want to go that long for Wainwright?
If the Cardinals need an example of the risk of signing a 30+ year old to a long term deal, they need to look no further than Chris Carpenter. Back in December 2006, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to a 5 year extension at the age of 31. Carpenter promptly missed most of the next two seasons due to injury.
Then, as if they hadn't learned their lesson, the Cardinals signed Carpenter to another extension in September 2011, this time for 2 years, and he promptly missed most of 2012 with a shoulder injury.
Thus, given his age and his recent Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will need to be cautious when discussing the length of any contract extension with Wainwright. Four years would probably be my limit. If the Cardinals go beyond 4 years, they could be stuck with a hefty contract for an injured or ineffective pitcher, which would likely hamper their ability to compete (see the Cubs and Carlos Zambrano).
Pitching Depth
With both Carpenter and Westbrook potentially leaving as free agents after the season, the Cardinals need someone to help bridge the gap between them and the new wave of pitchers coming up through the system. In addition, with questions surrounding Jaime Garcia and his shoulder, the Cardinals need an anchor on top of the staff.
For those reasons, the Cardinals will probably do what they can to try to get an extension done with Wainwright. Of course, they could always go out and sign a free agent pitcher or trade for a starter to give themselves and experienced pitcher to lead their staff, but Wainwright has one other thing going for him....
History
Who can forget the image of Wainwright, arms raised, after striking out Brandon Inge to end the 2006 World Series. That image alone makes Wainwright an icon is Cardinals history. Fans would obviously be upset if the Cardinals couldn't get an extension done, especially so soon after losing another fan favorite, Albert Pujols.
However, as we learned with Albert Pujols, no one is irreplacable.
The Cardinals have moved on from Pujols and certainly won't think twice about moving on from Wainwright if the asking price or the length of the contract gets to be too much. We aren't the Yankees and there are limits to the amount of money the team can spend.
Overall, I think it would benefit the Cardinals to sign Wainwright to an extension. However, I wouldn't go beyond 4 years. It may take a little more on a per year basis to get him to agree to a shorter deal. I'm thinking that 4 years and $105 million (which includes a $5-10 million bonus) should do the trick.
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