Despite the Cardinals general belief that they have the internal pitching depth to handle any issues with their starting pitching, Joe Strauss indicates in a recent article that the Cardinals might be conducting a "low-decibel" search for another starter.
With Carlos Martinez waiting in the wings and Michael Wacha likely a candidate to return in September, the Cardinals have two strong options in AAA should one of their current starter falter. In addition, the Cards will closely monitor Chris Carpenter progress in his rehab from his shoulder injury to determine if he is an option for the rotation.
The next 3 weeks will be an evaluation period for the Cardinals, not only to see if they need an upgrade to their current rotation of Adam Wainwright, Jake Westbrook, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Joe Kelly, but also to see where that potential upgrade might be (either internal or external).
For his part, GM John Mozeliak indicated that he believes that the team has "sound internal options", but that he reserves the right to "re-examine things the next four weeks."
The Cardinals are already scouting players in anticipation of the trade deadline, with Adam McCalvy reporting that the team had a scout at the Mets/Brewers game this afternoon. Who the scout was looking at is unclear, but its unlikely that is was any of the Brewers players (the Cards are adverse to trading within the division).
What is also unclear is whether the Cardinals could really find a pitcher that is clearly better than their internal option on the trade market. Matt Garza would probably qualify, but, as I said before, the Cards are unlikely to trade within their own division.
Bud Norris has pitched well this
year, but is probably no better than a 4th or 5th starter on a contending team. Is he really a step up from Joe Kelly (or Wacha or Martinez)?
In addition, after recent struggles, Shelby Miller, Jake Westbrook and Lance Lynn each turned in strong performances their last times out, helping to alleviate concerns.
So, while the Cardinals may be quietly checking out the starting pitching market, its probably more of a passive than an active search. They will check and scout all of the external options and see what the asking prices are. If there is a starter out there that could be had for cheap and is a clear upgrade to what they have (both in the majors and minors), they could make a move.
However, its more likely they'll stick with what they've got.
Sunday, July 7, 2013
Friday, July 5, 2013
What do the Cardinals do with Jon Jay and center field?
Cardinals' Nation is abuzz about John Jay and his production (or lack thereof). Many are calling for the Cardinals to make a change and soon.
Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.
John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.
Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay. However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.
So, what is the answer?
The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs. Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?
Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves. Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable. But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds. Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".
However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras. Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over. While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.
After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.
Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.
John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.
Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay. However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.
So, what is the answer?
The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs. Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?
Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves. Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable. But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds. Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".
However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras. Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over. While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.
After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.
Wednesday, July 3, 2013
Are the Cardinals starters regressing to the mean or are there bigger issues lurking?
Let's face it, the Cardinals starting pitchers are struggling, to say the least. Over the last week, they have gone 1-3 with a 5.18 ERA and they are 3-7 with a 4.08 ERA over the last two weeks.
Take away Adam Wainwright's starts and the numbers are even worse: 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA over the last week and 2-6 with a 4.73 ERA over the last two weeks (TGFW).
The Cardinals have already replaced Tyler Lyons in the rotation after he gave up 4 runs in 1.2 innings in his last start, but the struggles of regulars Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jake Westbrook have everyone concerned.
Are they just regressing to the mean or are their struggles a sign of bigger issues? Let's take a look at each of them.
Lance Lynn
Including last night's start, in which he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings, Lynn has an ERA of 3.75, which is in line with last year's 3.78 ERA. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .290 compared to .321 last year. With league average usually around .300, one can say that Lynn is not the benefactor of good luck and that he's probably about where he should be.
However, like last year, Lynn is going through a "June swoon". Since the beginning of June, he has posted an ERA of 5.26. He has been fortunate to go 3-2 in those 6 starts, thanks in large part to the Cardinals offense.
Last year, Lynn went 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA in June and lost his starting gig as a result. The Cardinals thought it was a result of fatigue, due to his weight at that time. However, even after losing weight during the offseason, he appears to be going through the same thing this year.
Looking at Pitch F/X, via Fangraphs, Lynn's average fastball velocity is down slightly from last year, but not enough to cause one to believe he is hiding an injury.
Maybe he is just going through a "dead arm" period and the All-Star break will give him a chance to refresh and reload, but there is no indication of injury or bad luck.
Shelby Miller
Unlike Lynn, Miller doesn't have much major league history to go off of as he only pitched 13.2 innings last year, mostly in relief. His .290 BABIP is not far off from league average and his 2.82 FIP is not far off from his current 2.79 ERA.
However, like Lynn, Miller has struggled recently. Over his last 5 starts, he is 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA.
The issue for Miller appears to be mechanical in nature, as he indicated after his last start that he may have discovered a flaw in his delivery.
He'll test out his theory tonight against the Angels.
Jake Westbrook
Westbrook's BABIP is .299 for the season, which is consistent with league average and his own career mark of .301. However, his 4.03 FIP compared to his 2.95 actual ERA indicate that he has been the beneficiary of some luck.
Let's face it, pitchers with a career ERA over 4.00 don't suddenly find their ace stuff at age 35 and lead the league in ERA.
So, part of his recent struggles could be seen as a regression to the mean.
However, there are reports that Westbrook's velocity is down and, considering he just came off the DL following a tender elbow, it raises concerns that he is still not 100%.
The have been no reports of any lingering arm issues and maybe he just needs to rebuild his strength after the long layoff, but he is the pitcher I'm most concerned about.
Overall, I'm not too concerned about Lynn or Miller as they are young, do not show any signs of injury and should be able to bounce back. On the other hand, Westbrook's struggles are concerning and may be an indication that he is not fully healed. If he doesn't improve soon, he may be headed back to the DL.
Take away Adam Wainwright's starts and the numbers are even worse: 0-3 with a 6.75 ERA over the last week and 2-6 with a 4.73 ERA over the last two weeks (TGFW).
The Cardinals have already replaced Tyler Lyons in the rotation after he gave up 4 runs in 1.2 innings in his last start, but the struggles of regulars Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jake Westbrook have everyone concerned.
Are they just regressing to the mean or are their struggles a sign of bigger issues? Let's take a look at each of them.
Lance Lynn
Including last night's start, in which he gave up 5 runs in 6 innings, Lynn has an ERA of 3.75, which is in line with last year's 3.78 ERA. His batting average on balls in play (BABIP) is .290 compared to .321 last year. With league average usually around .300, one can say that Lynn is not the benefactor of good luck and that he's probably about where he should be.
However, like last year, Lynn is going through a "June swoon". Since the beginning of June, he has posted an ERA of 5.26. He has been fortunate to go 3-2 in those 6 starts, thanks in large part to the Cardinals offense.
Last year, Lynn went 2-3 with a 6.66 ERA in June and lost his starting gig as a result. The Cardinals thought it was a result of fatigue, due to his weight at that time. However, even after losing weight during the offseason, he appears to be going through the same thing this year.
Looking at Pitch F/X, via Fangraphs, Lynn's average fastball velocity is down slightly from last year, but not enough to cause one to believe he is hiding an injury.
Maybe he is just going through a "dead arm" period and the All-Star break will give him a chance to refresh and reload, but there is no indication of injury or bad luck.
Shelby Miller
Unlike Lynn, Miller doesn't have much major league history to go off of as he only pitched 13.2 innings last year, mostly in relief. His .290 BABIP is not far off from league average and his 2.82 FIP is not far off from his current 2.79 ERA.
However, like Lynn, Miller has struggled recently. Over his last 5 starts, he is 2-3 with a 5.55 ERA.
The issue for Miller appears to be mechanical in nature, as he indicated after his last start that he may have discovered a flaw in his delivery.
He'll test out his theory tonight against the Angels.
Jake Westbrook
Westbrook's BABIP is .299 for the season, which is consistent with league average and his own career mark of .301. However, his 4.03 FIP compared to his 2.95 actual ERA indicate that he has been the beneficiary of some luck.
Let's face it, pitchers with a career ERA over 4.00 don't suddenly find their ace stuff at age 35 and lead the league in ERA.
So, part of his recent struggles could be seen as a regression to the mean.
However, there are reports that Westbrook's velocity is down and, considering he just came off the DL following a tender elbow, it raises concerns that he is still not 100%.
The have been no reports of any lingering arm issues and maybe he just needs to rebuild his strength after the long layoff, but he is the pitcher I'm most concerned about.
Overall, I'm not too concerned about Lynn or Miller as they are young, do not show any signs of injury and should be able to bounce back. On the other hand, Westbrook's struggles are concerning and may be an indication that he is not fully healed. If he doesn't improve soon, he may be headed back to the DL.
Tuesday, July 2, 2013
Cardinals sign Venezuela outfielder Carlos Talavera. Cubs snag two of top 3 prospects.
Today was the first day that MLB teams could sign international players and many teams scrambled to sign the best players available.
The Cardinals signed Venezuela outfielder Carlos Talavera, ranked the 28th best international prospect by Baseball America. Their scouting report describes Talavera as one of the best hitters in Venezuela with gap power and liken him to Angel Pagan.
This is also the first year that teams had different bonus pools to use to sign prospects and are allowed to trade up to 50% of their pool.
The Cubs took advantage of that by trading for an addition $963K of pool money and used it to sign the consensus #1 prospect in outfielder Eloy Jimenez of the Dominican Republic and another top 3 prospect in Venezuela short stop Gleybar Torres, making them the big winners in today's signing frenzy.
Check in tomorrow after the dust settles for more updates.
The Cardinals signed Venezuela outfielder Carlos Talavera, ranked the 28th best international prospect by Baseball America. Their scouting report describes Talavera as one of the best hitters in Venezuela with gap power and liken him to Angel Pagan.
This is also the first year that teams had different bonus pools to use to sign prospects and are allowed to trade up to 50% of their pool.
The Cubs took advantage of that by trading for an addition $963K of pool money and used it to sign the consensus #1 prospect in outfielder Eloy Jimenez of the Dominican Republic and another top 3 prospect in Venezuela short stop Gleybar Torres, making them the big winners in today's signing frenzy.
Check in tomorrow after the dust settles for more updates.
Monday, July 1, 2013
Cardinals could use a spark, but from where?
The Cardinals ended the month of June with an uninspiring 14-14 record.
The main culprit has been the once reliable starting pitching. After dominating for two months, all of the starters, save for Adam Wainwright, posted ERA's above 4.00 during June.
But the pitching isn't the only thing that should shoulder the blame. The offense has also been inconsistent, often showing a feast or famine tendency.
Its obvious that the Cards could use a spark to get them rolling again, but from where?
Here are the possibilities:
Trades
With the calendar turning to July, the trade market is sure to pick up. If the Cardinals want to help their beleaguered starting rotation, there are plenty of starters on the market.
However, two of the top sellers of starting pitching at this year's deadline reside in the NL Central (the Cubs and Brewers) and the Cards have said that trading within the division is "not desirable".
The Marlins have made Ricky Nolasco available and the Astros have Bud Norris on the block, but is either one enough to provide the boost the Cardinals need?
The Cards could always go "all-in" and trade for the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but it would likely gut their farm system in the process. Would the Cardinals mortgage their future for Lee?
Minors
The most obvious way to spark the Cardinals offense would be to replace the struggling John Jay with Oscar Taveras. However, Taveras has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month and currently resides on the 7-day D.L. Once healthy, he could be a viable option later this month.
Another possibility is to call up Carlos Martinez for the starting rotation and put Lance Lynn in the bullpen. Lynn appears to be going through the same mid-season funk that he did last year, posting a 4.83 ERA in June. However, despite his struggles, he has still managed to go 3-1 for the month.
Martinez could also be used to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation. Westbrook had the worst month of any starter still in the rotation, posting a 5.32 ERA while going 2-2 in his 4 starts. Westbrook could possibly then be used as a trade chip with another contending team.
My guess is that the Cardinals will just make minor trades here or there, either adding an arm for the bullpen or finding a right handed bat for the bench and hope that the regulars get back on track. But, if the team's struggles continue through July, don't be surprised to see Taveras or Martinez called up by the end of the month.
The main culprit has been the once reliable starting pitching. After dominating for two months, all of the starters, save for Adam Wainwright, posted ERA's above 4.00 during June.
But the pitching isn't the only thing that should shoulder the blame. The offense has also been inconsistent, often showing a feast or famine tendency.
Its obvious that the Cards could use a spark to get them rolling again, but from where?
Here are the possibilities:
Trades
With the calendar turning to July, the trade market is sure to pick up. If the Cardinals want to help their beleaguered starting rotation, there are plenty of starters on the market.
However, two of the top sellers of starting pitching at this year's deadline reside in the NL Central (the Cubs and Brewers) and the Cards have said that trading within the division is "not desirable".
The Marlins have made Ricky Nolasco available and the Astros have Bud Norris on the block, but is either one enough to provide the boost the Cardinals need?
The Cards could always go "all-in" and trade for the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but it would likely gut their farm system in the process. Would the Cardinals mortgage their future for Lee?
Minors
The most obvious way to spark the Cardinals offense would be to replace the struggling John Jay with Oscar Taveras. However, Taveras has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month and currently resides on the 7-day D.L. Once healthy, he could be a viable option later this month.
Another possibility is to call up Carlos Martinez for the starting rotation and put Lance Lynn in the bullpen. Lynn appears to be going through the same mid-season funk that he did last year, posting a 4.83 ERA in June. However, despite his struggles, he has still managed to go 3-1 for the month.
Martinez could also be used to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation. Westbrook had the worst month of any starter still in the rotation, posting a 5.32 ERA while going 2-2 in his 4 starts. Westbrook could possibly then be used as a trade chip with another contending team.
My guess is that the Cardinals will just make minor trades here or there, either adding an arm for the bullpen or finding a right handed bat for the bench and hope that the regulars get back on track. But, if the team's struggles continue through July, don't be surprised to see Taveras or Martinez called up by the end of the month.
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