Cardinals' Nation is abuzz about John Jay and his production (or lack thereof). Many are calling for the Cardinals to make a change and soon.
Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.
John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.
Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay. However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.
So, what is the answer?
The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs. Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?
Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves. Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable. But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds. Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".
However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras. Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over. While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.
After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.
Showing posts with label John Jay. Show all posts
Showing posts with label John Jay. Show all posts
Friday, July 5, 2013
Monday, July 1, 2013
Cardinals could use a spark, but from where?
The Cardinals ended the month of June with an uninspiring 14-14 record.
The main culprit has been the once reliable starting pitching. After dominating for two months, all of the starters, save for Adam Wainwright, posted ERA's above 4.00 during June.
But the pitching isn't the only thing that should shoulder the blame. The offense has also been inconsistent, often showing a feast or famine tendency.
Its obvious that the Cards could use a spark to get them rolling again, but from where?
Here are the possibilities:
Trades
With the calendar turning to July, the trade market is sure to pick up. If the Cardinals want to help their beleaguered starting rotation, there are plenty of starters on the market.
However, two of the top sellers of starting pitching at this year's deadline reside in the NL Central (the Cubs and Brewers) and the Cards have said that trading within the division is "not desirable".
The Marlins have made Ricky Nolasco available and the Astros have Bud Norris on the block, but is either one enough to provide the boost the Cardinals need?
The Cards could always go "all-in" and trade for the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but it would likely gut their farm system in the process. Would the Cardinals mortgage their future for Lee?
Minors
The most obvious way to spark the Cardinals offense would be to replace the struggling John Jay with Oscar Taveras. However, Taveras has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month and currently resides on the 7-day D.L. Once healthy, he could be a viable option later this month.
Another possibility is to call up Carlos Martinez for the starting rotation and put Lance Lynn in the bullpen. Lynn appears to be going through the same mid-season funk that he did last year, posting a 4.83 ERA in June. However, despite his struggles, he has still managed to go 3-1 for the month.
Martinez could also be used to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation. Westbrook had the worst month of any starter still in the rotation, posting a 5.32 ERA while going 2-2 in his 4 starts. Westbrook could possibly then be used as a trade chip with another contending team.
My guess is that the Cardinals will just make minor trades here or there, either adding an arm for the bullpen or finding a right handed bat for the bench and hope that the regulars get back on track. But, if the team's struggles continue through July, don't be surprised to see Taveras or Martinez called up by the end of the month.
The main culprit has been the once reliable starting pitching. After dominating for two months, all of the starters, save for Adam Wainwright, posted ERA's above 4.00 during June.
But the pitching isn't the only thing that should shoulder the blame. The offense has also been inconsistent, often showing a feast or famine tendency.
Its obvious that the Cards could use a spark to get them rolling again, but from where?
Here are the possibilities:
Trades
With the calendar turning to July, the trade market is sure to pick up. If the Cardinals want to help their beleaguered starting rotation, there are plenty of starters on the market.
However, two of the top sellers of starting pitching at this year's deadline reside in the NL Central (the Cubs and Brewers) and the Cards have said that trading within the division is "not desirable".
The Marlins have made Ricky Nolasco available and the Astros have Bud Norris on the block, but is either one enough to provide the boost the Cardinals need?
The Cards could always go "all-in" and trade for the Phillies' Cliff Lee, but it would likely gut their farm system in the process. Would the Cardinals mortgage their future for Lee?
Minors
The most obvious way to spark the Cardinals offense would be to replace the struggling John Jay with Oscar Taveras. However, Taveras has been dealing with an ankle injury for the last month and currently resides on the 7-day D.L. Once healthy, he could be a viable option later this month.
Another possibility is to call up Carlos Martinez for the starting rotation and put Lance Lynn in the bullpen. Lynn appears to be going through the same mid-season funk that he did last year, posting a 4.83 ERA in June. However, despite his struggles, he has still managed to go 3-1 for the month.
Martinez could also be used to replace Jake Westbrook in the rotation. Westbrook had the worst month of any starter still in the rotation, posting a 5.32 ERA while going 2-2 in his 4 starts. Westbrook could possibly then be used as a trade chip with another contending team.
My guess is that the Cardinals will just make minor trades here or there, either adding an arm for the bullpen or finding a right handed bat for the bench and hope that the regulars get back on track. But, if the team's struggles continue through July, don't be surprised to see Taveras or Martinez called up by the end of the month.
Thursday, June 27, 2013
Why the Cardinals should pass on extending Carlos Beltran.
About a year and a half ago, the Cardinals were in a bind, they had just lost their icon, Albert Pujols, to the Los Angeles Angels and needed to find someone to replace him. Two weeks later, they signed Carlos Beltran. Little did they know at the time, but in the 1 1/2 season since then, Beltran would actually out produce Pujols, hitting .282/.347/.512 with 50 homers to Pujols' .275/.338/.491 with 43 homers.
Now that Beltran is facing his own contract year with the Cardinals, there has been a general groundswell of support for signing Beltran to an extension.
It started with Beltran's own admission that he wants to stay in St. Louis, saying "I really love playing here. There's no doubt about it. I experienced something here last year that I hadn't experienced in a long time. It was a good clubhouse and so many good people, playing in front of these fans. They really support you when you do well and when you do terrible. It's a great feeling. Playing in a city like this, it makes everything easy."
From there Bernie Miklasz jumped on the bandwagon, saying "put me in the pro-Beltran camp, at least for now."
He has since been joined by the likes of Corey Rudd (StlSportsMinute.com) and Cardinals fans on message boards.
It seems like every Cardinals fan believes the team should bring back Beltran...except me.
I think it would be a mistake for the Cards to bring Beltran back, for the following reasons:
Age
Beltran turns 37 next April 24 and while his age may not show in his current stats (.308/.349/.546), you can see it taking a toll on his body. Knee problems may have led to his poor second half last season and he wasn't 100% at the start of this season due to a broken toe.
As we saw with Lance Berkman, after the Cardinals signed him to an extension after his stellar 2010 season, a player past his prime with previous knee problems is a high-risk proposition.
In addition, unless you are a 'roid enhanced guy like Barry Bonds, baseball skills generally decline with age. So, while Beltran may be performing well this season, the chances of a repeat are slim.
The Outfield Logjam
Heading into next season, the Cardinals could have 5 players--Matt Holliday, John Jay, Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig and Matt Adams vying for 4 spots (including first base). Add Beltran to that mix and things really get crowded.
Taveras, when healthy, looks like he can step in and contribute right away. Other than his first season with the Cardinals Dominican League team, Taveras has hit above .300 each season and is starting to show the power that everyone has said would come. Between him and Adams, the Cardinals should be able to replace a good portion of the offense that Beltran has provided.
Team Philosophy
As Bill Baer of ESPN points out, the Cardinals have played it smart when building their teams over the years. General Manager John Mozeliak has, mostly, "eschewed expensive, long-term free-agent contracts in favor of young, cost-controlled players from within the organization, short-term free-agent contracts and contract extensions for key players such as catcher Yadier Molina."
Beltran is an example of a short-term free-agent signing by the Cards and while it might make some sense to bring back Beltran on another short-term (preferably one year) contract, what it really comes down to is...
Money
Beltran is making $13 million this year and it would probably take a similar amount to bring him back for another year. After signing Adam Wainwright to a 5-year, $97.5 million extension in March, the Cardinals are probably looking to save money elsewhere and Beltran is one luxury they can do without.
Take that money and apply it to other areas of need, such as shortstop or some bullpen help, and the Cards will come out ahead, just like they did when Pujols left.
Bottom line, unless Beltran is willing to take a one-year deal at a steep discount, that both limits the Cardinals risk while also allowing them to address other areas of need, the Cardinals should thank him for his service to the team and move on after this season.
Now that Beltran is facing his own contract year with the Cardinals, there has been a general groundswell of support for signing Beltran to an extension.
It started with Beltran's own admission that he wants to stay in St. Louis, saying "I really love playing here. There's no doubt about it. I experienced something here last year that I hadn't experienced in a long time. It was a good clubhouse and so many good people, playing in front of these fans. They really support you when you do well and when you do terrible. It's a great feeling. Playing in a city like this, it makes everything easy."
From there Bernie Miklasz jumped on the bandwagon, saying "put me in the pro-Beltran camp, at least for now."
He has since been joined by the likes of Corey Rudd (StlSportsMinute.com) and Cardinals fans on message boards.
It seems like every Cardinals fan believes the team should bring back Beltran...except me.
I think it would be a mistake for the Cards to bring Beltran back, for the following reasons:
Age
Beltran turns 37 next April 24 and while his age may not show in his current stats (.308/.349/.546), you can see it taking a toll on his body. Knee problems may have led to his poor second half last season and he wasn't 100% at the start of this season due to a broken toe.
As we saw with Lance Berkman, after the Cardinals signed him to an extension after his stellar 2010 season, a player past his prime with previous knee problems is a high-risk proposition.
In addition, unless you are a 'roid enhanced guy like Barry Bonds, baseball skills generally decline with age. So, while Beltran may be performing well this season, the chances of a repeat are slim.
The Outfield Logjam
Heading into next season, the Cardinals could have 5 players--Matt Holliday, John Jay, Oscar Taveras, Allen Craig and Matt Adams vying for 4 spots (including first base). Add Beltran to that mix and things really get crowded.
Taveras, when healthy, looks like he can step in and contribute right away. Other than his first season with the Cardinals Dominican League team, Taveras has hit above .300 each season and is starting to show the power that everyone has said would come. Between him and Adams, the Cardinals should be able to replace a good portion of the offense that Beltran has provided.
Team Philosophy
As Bill Baer of ESPN points out, the Cardinals have played it smart when building their teams over the years. General Manager John Mozeliak has, mostly, "eschewed expensive, long-term free-agent contracts in favor of young, cost-controlled players from within the organization, short-term free-agent contracts and contract extensions for key players such as catcher Yadier Molina."
Beltran is an example of a short-term free-agent signing by the Cards and while it might make some sense to bring back Beltran on another short-term (preferably one year) contract, what it really comes down to is...
Money
Beltran is making $13 million this year and it would probably take a similar amount to bring him back for another year. After signing Adam Wainwright to a 5-year, $97.5 million extension in March, the Cardinals are probably looking to save money elsewhere and Beltran is one luxury they can do without.
Take that money and apply it to other areas of need, such as shortstop or some bullpen help, and the Cards will come out ahead, just like they did when Pujols left.
Bottom line, unless Beltran is willing to take a one-year deal at a steep discount, that both limits the Cardinals risk while also allowing them to address other areas of need, the Cardinals should thank him for his service to the team and move on after this season.
Wednesday, April 17, 2013
Can the Cardinals find room for both Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras in the 2014 lineup?
Everyone assumes that Oscar Taveras is the heir apparent to take over for Carlos Beltran in right field in 2014. However, with the way Matt Adams has started out of the gate this season, its entirely possible that Adams starts at first next year with Allen Craig moving to right.
But, if that should happen, where does that leave Taveras?
Its a nice problem to have, as it shows the Cardinals depth and overall talent level is high. But, when you have a special talent like Taveras and a masher like Adams, you want their bats in the lineup as much as possible.
Something has got to give...
....which brings me to John Jay.
Jay has been an excellent table setter for the Cards over the last 3+ years, hitting a combined .295/.353/.398 in either the leadoff or #2 spot in the order. However, he has little power and little speed and could easily be replaced by Taveras.
For his part, Taveras has shown he is capable of playing center field, having started nearly 60% of his minor league games there, and, while probably not as good defensively as Jay, he should be an improvement offensively.
Now, I'm not in a rush to get rid of Jay or relegate him to the bench, but, if Taveras proves capable of playing center in the majors, it gives the Cardinals the flexibility to potentially trade Jay to fill another hole (such as shortstop).
Add in the fact that Jay will be arbitration eligible for the first time next year and the Cards may want to make a move just to free up some money to spend on other areas.
Of course, the Cardinals could just trade Taveras for Jurickson Profar, as everyone keeps suggesting they do. But, I already covered that last week and don't think its such a great idea for the Cards.
In any case, the Cardinals will need to sort out this logjam, probably over the winter, and it will be up to John Mozeliak to determine the best solution for the Cards for 2014 and the future.
But, if that should happen, where does that leave Taveras?
Its a nice problem to have, as it shows the Cardinals depth and overall talent level is high. But, when you have a special talent like Taveras and a masher like Adams, you want their bats in the lineup as much as possible.
Something has got to give...
....which brings me to John Jay.
Jay has been an excellent table setter for the Cards over the last 3+ years, hitting a combined .295/.353/.398 in either the leadoff or #2 spot in the order. However, he has little power and little speed and could easily be replaced by Taveras.
For his part, Taveras has shown he is capable of playing center field, having started nearly 60% of his minor league games there, and, while probably not as good defensively as Jay, he should be an improvement offensively.
Now, I'm not in a rush to get rid of Jay or relegate him to the bench, but, if Taveras proves capable of playing center in the majors, it gives the Cardinals the flexibility to potentially trade Jay to fill another hole (such as shortstop).
Add in the fact that Jay will be arbitration eligible for the first time next year and the Cards may want to make a move just to free up some money to spend on other areas.
Of course, the Cardinals could just trade Taveras for Jurickson Profar, as everyone keeps suggesting they do. But, I already covered that last week and don't think its such a great idea for the Cards.
In any case, the Cardinals will need to sort out this logjam, probably over the winter, and it will be up to John Mozeliak to determine the best solution for the Cards for 2014 and the future.
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