The St. Louis Cardinals offense suffered a big loss when Jason Heyward took less money to sign with the rival Cubs. Given that the Cards finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, Heyward and his 3.8 oWAR (offensive Wins Against Replacement) will be missed.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
Showing posts with label Tommy Pham. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tommy Pham. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Tuesday, April 22, 2014
Could the Cardinals trade one of their surplus outfielders for relief help?
Over the last few years, the Cardinals have been know for developing and promoting power arms, including such standouts as Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.
With those pitchers having already graduated to the majors, it appears that the Cardinals system strength is now their outfielders.
In addition to major league regulars Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos, 3 of the Cardinals top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America are outfielders, headed by top prospect Oscar Taveras, as well as spring standout Stephen Piscotty (#4) and up-and-coming James Ramsey (#8).
In addition, BA lists Mike O'Neill as having the "best strike-zone discipline", Charlie Tilson as the "fastest baserunner", C.J. McElroy as the "best athlete" and Tommy Pham as the "best defensive outfielder".
Now, let's consider the Cardinals bullpen.
The Cards pen ranks 13th in the NL with a 4.47 ERA. Manager Mike Matheny has leaned heavily on Pat Neshek and Kevin Siegrist, who have both appeared in half of the Cardinals 20 games, as well as rookie Carlos Martinez who has appeared in 9 games.
Some help may be on the way in the form of Jason Motte, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could return sometime in May. However, its obvious that Matheny could use another reliable arm (or two) if only to lessen the burden on Neshek, Siegrist and Martinez.
So, with an obvious need and an obvious surplus, it would only make sense for the Cards to trade one of their outfield prospects for a reliever. The only problem is that there probably aren't any pitchers on the market right now.
The Cardinals have had success the last two years trading for struggling relievers in July and helping them get back on track. It worked with Edward Mujica, who the Cards acquired from the Marlins in 2012 for Zack Cox and it worked with John Axford, who the Cards got from the Brewers for Michael Blazek last July.
Expect a similar move this July, with an outfielder at the center of the deal. It likely won't be one of the top 3 guys, but I certainly could see someone like Mike O'Neil being moved for a reliever.
With those pitchers having already graduated to the majors, it appears that the Cardinals system strength is now their outfielders.
In addition to major league regulars Matt Holliday, Allen Craig, Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos, 3 of the Cardinals top 10 prospects, according to Baseball America are outfielders, headed by top prospect Oscar Taveras, as well as spring standout Stephen Piscotty (#4) and up-and-coming James Ramsey (#8).
In addition, BA lists Mike O'Neill as having the "best strike-zone discipline", Charlie Tilson as the "fastest baserunner", C.J. McElroy as the "best athlete" and Tommy Pham as the "best defensive outfielder".
Now, let's consider the Cardinals bullpen.
The Cards pen ranks 13th in the NL with a 4.47 ERA. Manager Mike Matheny has leaned heavily on Pat Neshek and Kevin Siegrist, who have both appeared in half of the Cardinals 20 games, as well as rookie Carlos Martinez who has appeared in 9 games.
Some help may be on the way in the form of Jason Motte, who is rehabbing from Tommy John surgery and could return sometime in May. However, its obvious that Matheny could use another reliable arm (or two) if only to lessen the burden on Neshek, Siegrist and Martinez.
So, with an obvious need and an obvious surplus, it would only make sense for the Cards to trade one of their outfield prospects for a reliever. The only problem is that there probably aren't any pitchers on the market right now.
The Cardinals have had success the last two years trading for struggling relievers in July and helping them get back on track. It worked with Edward Mujica, who the Cards acquired from the Marlins in 2012 for Zack Cox and it worked with John Axford, who the Cards got from the Brewers for Michael Blazek last July.
Expect a similar move this July, with an outfielder at the center of the deal. It likely won't be one of the top 3 guys, but I certainly could see someone like Mike O'Neil being moved for a reliever.
Friday, July 5, 2013
What do the Cardinals do with Jon Jay and center field?
Cardinals' Nation is abuzz about John Jay and his production (or lack thereof). Many are calling for the Cardinals to make a change and soon.
Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.
John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.
Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay. However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.
So, what is the answer?
The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs. Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?
Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves. Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable. But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds. Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".
However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras. Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over. While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.
After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.
Bernie Miklasz wrote an article yesterday highlighting Jay's deficiencies on offense and defense and suggests that the Cards could look for an alternative on the trade market.
John Nagel of CardinalsFarm suggests that the Cardinals should use an internal option such as Tommy Pham, to replace Jay in center.
Tom S. of Viva el Birdos does an analysis of the situation and concludes that, with no better options available either inside or outside the organization, the Cardinals should just stay the course with Jay. However, that doesn't appease Cardinals' Nation that wants action now.
So, what is the answer?
The way I see it, there are no viable trade options to plug into center field and the current, healthy internal options for the Cardinals, such as Tommy Pham, probably are not ready for the bigs. Why make a change when its not going to provide you with much better results than your current option?
Thus, the best option is to stick with Jay for now and hope he improves. Many have said over the last few years that his unusually high BABIP, which ranged from .340 to .355, was unsustainable. But he did it for 3 years, while bucking the odds. Perhaps he just has an uncanny ability to "hit 'em where they ain't".
However, if after a month, things do not improve, then the Cardinals have to turn to Oscar Taveras. Hopefully Taveras will be healthy by then and ready to take over. While he may not be a long-term solution in center, as he may eventually grow out of the position, he should be able to at least hold down the job for the remainder of the season.
After that, the Cardinals can explore a more permanent solution in the offseason.
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