Showing posts with label Tim Cooney. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Tim Cooney. Show all posts

Sunday, April 26, 2015

Where has all of the Cardinals pitching depth gone?

There was a time, not so long ago, that the Cardinals were the envy of General Managers everywhere for their pitching depth.  You think your team has good pitching depth?  We had 3 guys who can throw 95+ mph (Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal) vying for our 5th starter spot in 2013.

Now, with the expectation that Adam Wainwright will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles tendon injury, per Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals pitching depth, or lack thereof, is going to come into question.

Gone are Joe Kelly (traded to Boston last year for John Lackey) and Shelby Miller (traded for Jason Heyward).  Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and the pipeline of power arms seems to have dried up.

Now the Cards pitching depth consists of a bunch of lefty control specialists (Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons), while the team's remaining minor league power arms are either being groomed for relief (Sam Tuivailala) or are too far away from the majors to offer much help this year (Alex Reyes).

What is even more concerning is that, while he should have been groomed as a starter and allowed to build up his innings each year, Carlos Martinez spent the last two years in the Cardinals bullpen and, as a result, he will likely face an innings limit this year (speculated to be around 150 innings). 

Another concern is that Michael Wacha will likely be on a similar innings limit as well, after a stress fracture sidelined him for a few months last year. 

Assuming that Wainwright is out for the year and Martinez and Wacha reach their innings limits in mid-to-late August, who is going to step in to fill those voids?  Who will be in the Cardinals rotation in the playoffs?  Will they even make the playoffs?

These are legitimate concerns for a team that use to pride itself on its pitching depth.  What use to be a strength now appears to be a weakness and the team could suffer as a result.


Saturday, April 25, 2015

Adam Wainwright injured: Who might replace him in Cardinals' rotation?

In case you missed it, Adam Wainwright was injured tonight trying to get out of the batter's box on a popup of all things.  He will undergo an MRI to see the extent of the injury, but its likely he's headed to the DL.

Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season.  However, that is the worst case scenario.

At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation?  Here are the Cardinals' options:

Marco Gonzales

The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales.  He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.

As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.

The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.

Tim Cooney

Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts.  His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters.  However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.

Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.

Tyler Lyons

Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.

He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.

He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.

UPDATE:

It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in.  However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.

Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....

Sunday, June 15, 2014

Should the Cardinals pursue David Price and, if so, what might he cost them?

Last week I opined as to what the Cardinals needs might be heading into trading season.  Bullpen help is their main priority, but there is also the possibility that the Cardinals could make a big splash and try to pull off a blockbuster deal.

A little while ago, Ken Rosenthal suggested that the Cards should pursue a big-name starting pitcher, such as David Price and, with the recent elbow issues of Adam Wainwright, that is a distinct possibility.  However, Rosenthal recently indicated that the team is hesitant to go shopping for a starter, as they still have internal options, such as Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.

Early indications are that Wainwright's injury is not serious, but it does raise concerns.  Waino is definitely the Cardinals ace and while Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia have all pitched well, a long-term injury to Wainwright would definitely hurt the Cards playoff chances.

Plus, could you imagine a big 3 of Wainwright, Wacha and Price in the playoffs?  The Cardinals would definitely be tough to beat.

Price would be under team control through the 2015 season, which means he is not the typical "rental" player available this time of year and it would give the Cards time to negotiate a potential extension with him.

Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to acquiring Price, but at what cost?

The best comparison to determine the asking price for Price is to look at the Rays trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in December 2012.  At that time, the Rays acquired Wil Meyers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard from the Royals for those two pitchers.

To put that package in perspective, Meyers was the Royals #1 prospect and the 4th best in all of baseball according to Baseball America.  Odorizzi was the Royals #5 prospect and ranked 92nd overall by Baseball America.  Montgomery had fallen off the charts a bit, but was once a top 50 prospect and Leonard was a low-level, unranked power hitting prospect.

What might the equivalent package be that the Cards would have to pony up for Price?

Well, you have to consider that the Royals were getting two quality arms in their deal, however Price is considered a much better pitcher than either Shields or Davis, so that probably balances out.

Thus, I would think that any discussion would probably start with Oscar Taveras.  The Cards would probably have to include a pitcher who is close to major-league ready as well, such as Tim Cooney and then a couple lesser prospects. 

The question then is:  Is it worth the cost?

Would you be willing to part with your top hitting prospect for arguably the best pitcher on the market? 

Considering the logjam of outfielders that the Cards have in their system both in the majors (Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay and Allen Craig), as well as at AAA (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk) and even AA (James Ramsey), parting with a top talent like Taveras for a lefthanded "ace" like Price is a little less painfull.

Overall, I think that, if the Cards could land Price for some package involving Taveras, they should go for it.  Pitching wins championships.

What do you think?

Wednesday, April 16, 2014

Cardinals' Joe Kelly headed to DL. Who will take his place?

Joe Kelly injured his hamstring today trying to beat out a bunt, leaving the Cardinals with a hole in their starting rotation.  Who are the candidates to replace Kelly?  Let's take a look.

Carlos Martinez

Martinez, who lost out to Kelly for the 5th starter job, would be the obvious choice to replace him in the starting rotation.  However, there are some factors working against him.

First, the Cardinals may think they are better off leaving him in the bullpen, where he has enjoyed success (1.86 ERA) in a setup role.

In addition, if the Cards take him out of the setup role, who would they use to replace him?  Jason Motte is not ready yet.  Perhaps the team could bring up veteran David Aardsma from AAA Memphis, but, coming off a season in which he posted a 4.31 ERA, can he be relied upon as the setup guy?

Finally, Martinez may need time to stretch out, after spending the first two-plus weeks of the season as a reliever.  While he has gone more than one inning in 5 of his 7 appearances, he has not pitched more than 2 innings in any game.

Tyler Lyons

If the Cardinals decide to keep Martinez in the pen, Lyons would be the most logical choice. 

For one thing, he has pitched well so far this season, going 2-0 with a 3.32 ERA in 3 starts.

Second, he is on the 40-man roster, so it would not required the Cardinals DFA's any of their current 40-man guys.

Finally, he pitched today at Memphis, so he would be in line to make Kelly's next start.

Boone Whiting/Tim Cooney

Both Whiting and Cooney could be dark horses to fill in for Kelly.

Both are off to good starts at AAA Memphis:  Whiting is 0-1, but with a 1.98 ERA, while Cooney is 3-0 with a 2.04 ERA. 

If the Cardinals are not ready to give Lyons another try as a starter, especially after he posted a 5.56 ERA last season in 8 starts and they do not want to move Martinez from the pen, then Whiting or Cooney could get the call.

Whiting has more high level experience, having made 21 starts at AAA last season, while this is Cooney's first season at AAA.  However, Cooney has arguably more upside than Whiting.

In either case, neither of them is on the 40-man roster, so the Cardinals would have to make room for them, which makes it less likely that it will happen.

Prediction

The Cardinals will likely give Lyons the first shot to replace Kelly.  This will allow the team to keep Martinez in the pen and keep his innings down.  However, depending on how long Kelly is out (and how Lyons fares), the team could be forced to use Martinez.

Tuesday, March 4, 2014

UCB Roundtable: Which rookie will have the biggest impact in 2014?

As part of the United Cardinals Bloggers Annual Spring Roundtable, today I got to ask the question for discussion.  What I originally thought would be a straight-forward question turned into a bit more.

Here is the question I posed and the resulting discussion.

Question: 

Despite several prospects graduating to the big leagues last season, including Shelby Miller, Matt Adams, Trevor Rosenthal, Michael Wacha and Seth Maness, the Cardinals still have one of the best minor league systems. 

Excluding Kolten Wong, who is projected to start at second, which rookie do you think will have the biggest impact on the Cardinals in 2014?  
Discussion:
Mark Tomasik, Retro Simba

Oscar Taveras. He’s likely to emerge as a run producer who gets significant playing time at all three outfield spots.
Matt Whitener, I70 Baseball

Whereas last year's team needed a lot of rookie contribution to make everything work, that's not the case this time around. The sophomores have established roles and the vets are all back for the most part, so it is considerably tougher to pick a rookie that makes a huge splash this year. Not due to a lack of talent, but simply because of available time to make a splash in.

With that preface, I think this year's top rook is finally Tavares, who wont get the early impact chance that everybody wants, but once he hits the field, has the type of talent to force his way into the mix and change what is established already. I see a year for Oscar that mirrors the type of year that Wil Myers had last year: mid-season promotion and increasing impact as the season gets older. He's the type of talent that is an internal trade deadline-like boost, and most importantly, provides a more stable option out of the #2 spot in the lineup, because that's a void that has not been able to be seamlessly filled like others have since Beltran moved on.


Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants

Oscar Taveras is my answer.  I would expect that Randal Grichuck or Stephen Piscotty will see some playing time come September.

Bill Ivie, I70 Baseball

Taveras is the obvious answer, and I can't argue it. I think the team has a bright future, but most of the players are not quite ready yet.

Christine Coleman, Aaron Miles' Fastball

I agree with Bill, that Oscar Taveras is the obvious and inarguable answer. With the depth and talent (and youth) on even the 40-man roster, hard to see anyone else really having the chance to make a big impact.

Dan Boffa, Dose of Boffa

While we can all say Oscar, I am going with Tim Cooney. I've seen him pitch twice this spring and he's got command, a fine array of pitches and a poise out there that can't be taught. 

Sure we haven't reached the regular season grind yet but this talented lefty could definitely help the club, especially given Garcia's health concerns and John Gast's shoulder surgery comeback. Cooney may not provide a Wacha moment in 2014 but he could have a big impact down the stretch of a long season.
Daniel Shoptaw, C70 At The Bat 


While, as everyone said, you have to figure Oscar Taveras will be the answer to this question, I'm wondering if it might not be a bullpen arm that comes in and pulls a Kevin Siegrist or Seth Maness when someone (inevitably) stumbles.  Could that be Cooney, like Dan said, shifting from the rotation in Memphis to the big league pen?  Lee Stoppelman is my dark horse in that regard.

Mary Claussen, MLBVoice

Oscar Tavares.  He's got oodles of potential.  I'm excited to be able to see him this season (barring no more ankle stuff).

As you can see, the consensus is that Oscar Taveras will be the Cardinals top rookie in 2014.  However, I was surprised that no one mentioned Carlos Martinez in the discussion, which led to a discussion on Martinez' rookie eligibility, as follows.

Me:  What about Carlos Martinez?  He's still a rookie.

Daniel Shoptaw

For some reason, I think Martinez is technically not a rookie.  He didn't reach the 50 innings pitched requirement, but I think he might have had 45 days or more on the active 25-man roster before September. I could be wrong on that, obviously, but I'm thinking I remember that coming up last year.

Bill Ivie

There's a huge debate on Martinez' rookie status.  I've counted his service days and thought he was clear by a day, others have said that he is one day past rookie status.

For what it's worth, MLB does not show him in their rookie run downs.

Daniel Shoptaw

Cot's Contracts shows Martinez with 73 service days, but that should be counting September as well. Which would seem to back up Bill's contention that he was just short.  Like he says, though, Martinez never seems to be included in any rookie rundowns.  Someone Tweet at Goold and have him clear this up!  :)

Me

I stand corrected.  According to Jennifer Langosch, Martinez is not a rookie.  This is from her January 13, 2014 article (in the comments section):
Martinez just narrowly misses rookie status. A player loses his rookie eligibility if A) he exceeds 130 at-bats or 50 innings pitched or B) is on a team’s roster for 45 days or more (not counting September, when rosters expand). Martinez only pitched 28 1/3 innings in the regular season, but he did (just narrowly) surpass that 45-day mark for service time. As a result, MLB.com will not consider him for its prospect list.

Bill Ivie

From Goold on Twitter:  Baseball has him hitting just the mark.  Not a rookie.

So, from a discussion on rookies, we found out (or at least I did) that Carlos Martinez is no longer considered one.  However, I think Martinez will have a bigger impact on this year's team than Taveras, rookie status or not, and Daniel Shoptaw agrees:
Per Dan: "To the rephrased question (whether Taveras or Martinez would have a bigger impact), I'm going to lean toward Martinez, just because I'm not sure when Taveras will make the major leagues and I'm guessing they'll break him in gently with a rotation of him, Craig and Adams.  I don't necessarily think Martinez will start the year in the rotation, but what he does give to the team might be more than OT does."

Be sure to check out more discussions, like these, at the United Cardinals Bloggers site, as well as the individual site links provided above.

Monday, February 10, 2014

2014 Cardinals Composite Top 10 Prospect List

Welcome to the unveiling of the second annual Cardinals Composite Top Prospect list.  For those of you who missed last years' edition, this list takes the top 10 prospects lists from around the web, assigns points to each ranking (10 for first, 9 for second, 8 for third, etc.) and the puts them all together into a composite list.

Below is a preliminary Composite Top Prospect list, based on the top 10 lists posted to date.  I expect to update this again towards the end of February.

2014 Cardinals Composite Top 10 Prospect List (Preliminary):

1.  Oscar Taveras, OF (90 points)

Year Age Lev AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB BB SO BA OBP SLG
2013 21 AAA-Rk 174 25 54 13 0 5 32 5 10 22 .310 .348 .471
5 Seasons 1437 235 460 104 23 45 275 34 125 212 .320 .377 .518
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014

Despite his injury prone season, Taveras still rates as the consensus top prospect for the Cardinals and could compete for a spot on the opening day roster.

2.  Kolten Wong, 2B (72 points)

YearAgeLevABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBSOBAOBPSLG
201322AAA412681252181045204160.303.369.466
3 Seasons112918634059162412250106158.301.365.446
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.

Penciled in to be the Cardinals starting second baseman in 2014, Wong should provide the Cardinals with some much needed speed and defense.

3.  Carlos Martinez, RHP (63 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201321AAA-AA632.4979.2652522428721.167
4 Seasons21152.69327.226011398141183401.154
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.
Year Age Tm W L ERA IP H R ER HR BB SO WHIP
2013 21 STL 2 1 5.08 28.1 31 16 16 1 9 24 1.412
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.

Martinez pitched well in relief for the Redbirds down the stretch and in the playoffs. With an abundance of starters in their system, Martinez could serve in a setup role in 2014.

Note:  Martinez would have ranked second if two lists had not left him off completely.

4.  Stephen Piscotty (54 points)

YearAgeLevABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBSOBAOBPSLG
201322A+-AA427471262321559113746.295.355.464
2 Seasons637761884131986145571.295.362.458
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.

The "other" prospect that the Cardinals got as compensation for losing Albert Pujols, Piscotty put up some fine nu mber in his first full year in the minor.

5.  Marco Gonzalez (51 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201321A+-Rk002.7023.1188718231.114
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/9/2014.

The Cardinals first selection in the 2013 draft (19th overall), Gonzalez is another one of those high floor/low ceiling kind of prospects the Cards seem to like (ala Michael Wacha).

6.  Carson Kelly (34 points)

YearAgeLevABRH2B3BHRRBISBBBSOBAOBPSLG
201318A--A4175310722164513356.257.322.357
2 Seasons63077155321157014389.246.303.371
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2014.

Kelly, a second round pick in 2012, had a decent first full season in the minors, holding his own in A ball at a young age.  He should move up to high A in 2013.

7.  Rob Kaminsky (28 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201318Rk033.6822.02314919281.455
1 Season033.6822.02314919281.455
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2014.

Taken after Gonzalez in the 2013 draft (28th overall), Kaminsky has higher upside than that of Gonzalez, but also has a longer way to go to get there.

8.  Alex Reyes (25 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201318Rk643.3958.1542622128681.406
1 Season643.3958.1542622128681.406
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2014.

Reyes made the biggest jump of any Cardinals prospect, going from a virtual unknown last year to cracking the top 10 this year.

9.  Tyrell Jenkins (24 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201320A-A+444.7059.1643431425401.500
4 Seasons12104.57200.221312010212761771.440
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2014.

Jenkins has battled shoulder issues most of the year before finally undergoing surgery in August 2013.  He still has tremendous upside, but we will have to see how he recovers from the injury.

10.  Tim Cooney (14 points)

YearAgeLevWLERAIPHRERHRBBSOWHIP
201322AA-A+10133.56154.117072619221481.244
2 Seasons13163.51210.0226968213301911.219
Provided by Baseball-Reference.com: View Original Table
Generated 2/10/2014.

Cooney, a 3rd round pick in 2012, allows his fair share of hits (9.9 H/9 in 2013), but offsets that with excellent control (1.3 BB/9).

Others receiving points:

John Gast (13), James Ramsey (12), Charlie Tilson (5), Randal Grichuk (4), Patrick Wisdom (2), Greg Garcia (1), Vaughn Bryan (1)

Again, this is the preliminary list and I expect to add another 5 or so websites to the list by the end of February, so stay tuned for the update.