Showing posts with label starting rotation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label starting rotation. Show all posts

Saturday, April 25, 2015

Adam Wainwright injured: Who might replace him in Cardinals' rotation?

In case you missed it, Adam Wainwright was injured tonight trying to get out of the batter's box on a popup of all things.  He will undergo an MRI to see the extent of the injury, but its likely he's headed to the DL.

Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season.  However, that is the worst case scenario.

At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation?  Here are the Cardinals' options:

Marco Gonzales

The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales.  He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.

As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.

The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.

Tim Cooney

Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts.  His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters.  However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.

Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.

Tyler Lyons

Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.

He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.

He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.

UPDATE:

It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in.  However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.

Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....

Monday, July 28, 2014

Could Cole Hamels be an option for the Cardinals?

Yesterday I posted a list of possible starting pitching trade targets for the Cardinals.  Well, now you can add one more name to the list of possibilities.

According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Phillies have made Cole Hamels available, however, the asking price is said to be very high.

Hamels can block a trade to 20 teams, however, the Cardinals are not one of those 20.  Per Morosi, the Cardinals and Dodgers are the two most likely teams to pursue Hamels.

Hamels could make a lot of sense for the Cardinals, maybe even more so than David Price.  For one thing, he is signed through the 2018 season, with an option for 2019.  Granted, he is owed $22.5 million per season, which is not cheap, but Price would cost at least that much and is only signed through 2015.

Another reason that Hamels makes sense for the Redbirds is that he has spent his entire career in the NL, so there would not be any transition period for him.  He has a career 3.33 ERA and, oh yeah, he's left handed, making him all the more appealing.

One drawback is that Hamels is already 30 years old and the Cardinals would be committed to him through his age 35 season.  However, that may not be an issue for the Cards, as they recently signed Adam Wainwright through his age 37 season.

Another drawback is the cost to acquire him.  It doesn't appear that the Phillies are going to be giving out any kind of discount for Hamels, in case you were thinking his high contract value would warrant such a thing.  Jayson Stark is reporting that the Phillies are asking for every team's top 3 or 4 young players while they are only willing to eat $10 million of the $90 million remaining on his contract.

For the Cardinals, any offer would likely have to include 3 or 4 of the following players: Oscar Taveras, Carlos Martinez, Marco Gonzales, Stephen Piscotty, Alex Reyes, James Ramsey, Rob Kaminsky and/or Tim Cooney.

It will be interesting to see if the Cards make a play for Hamels before the deadline.  Hamels is unlikely to clear waivers, so if the Phillies are serious about moving him, they have 4 days to do so.  The question is whether any team will be willing to pony up the prospects to get him.


Tuesday, June 11, 2013

Cardinals pitchers bringin' the heat

Its no secret that the Cardinals have some power arms in their organization.  Its part of the reason that the Cards farm system was rated the best in MLB and also why the Cardinals rotation has been so successful. 

But, how do the Cardinals power arms compare to the rest of MLB? 

Well, thanks to Fangraphs and Pitch/Fx, we can compare how the Cards pitchers' average fastball velocity compares to others around the majors.

For example, of all pitchers that have pitched at least one inning in the majors, the Cardinals have two pitchers in the top 8 in terms of average velocity, Carlos Martinez at 97.1 mph and Trevor Rosenthal at 96.3 mph.  Martinez ranks 4th in average velocity, behind only Bruce Rondon, who has as average velocity of 99.3 mph, but has only pitched 2.1 innings; the "Cuban Missile" Aroldis Chapman, who averages 97.4 mph; and Kevlin Herrera, who averages 97.2 mph.

Looking at those numbers, it easy to understand why the Cardinals want to keep developing Martinez as a starter, as his plus fastball, as well as other potential plus pitchers, give him "ace" upside.

Rosenthal, on the other hand, may be best suited for relief, just like Chapman of the Reds, as he has dominated in that role.  I could easily see Rosenthal taking over the closing duties next year, should Edward Mujica leave via free agency.

As for the starters, Shelby Miller leads the Cards with an average velocity of 93.4 mph.  However, that is only good enough for 11th place among starting pitchers (identified as those with over 50 innings). 

Lance Lynn is the next highest Cardinals starter on the list, checking in at # 31, with an average fastball of 92.1 mph.  In his two starts, Michael Wacha has averaged 92.5 mph on his fastball, which would have placed him 21st, tied with Clayton Kershaw, had he pitched enough innings to qualify. 

Cardinals ace Adam Wainwright only averages 90.9 mph on his fastball, which places him 62nd on the list.  However, he more than makes up for it with his devastating curve.

Finally, I should point out that throwing hard does not always translate to success.  Two of the Cardinals hardest throwers, Maikel Cleto (95.2 mph) and Victor Marte (94.3 mph) have struggled at the major league level, as has Mitchell Boggs this year, despite his 93.7 mph fastball.

There's more to pitching than just rearing back and throwing high 90's heat, but, as most teams and scouts will tell you, having a big fastball is probably the number 1 indicator for future success.

Friday, March 1, 2013

Early look at Cardinals Spring Training battles

Heading into this spring, there were two key spots that were up for grabs for the Cardinals, second base and 5th starter.  After one week of games, here's how those battles are shaping up:

Second Base

This is a 3 horse race between incumbent Daniel Descalso, convert Matt Carpenter and rising prospect Kolten Wong. 

After a down season offensively last year, Descalso is fighting to hold onto his job this spring.  He plays solid defense, but his lack of offense hurts him.  He is hitting .250 (3 for 12) so far this spring.

Carpenter, on the other hand, has shown the ability to hit in the majors, but it remains to be seen if he can handle the position defensively.  He is hitting .273 (3 for 11) so far.

Wong, who is excellent defensively, is expected to develop into a solid hitter.  However, he probably needs more time to develop.  He is hitting .333 (3 for 9) this spring.

Overall, I expect Descalso to hold onto the job.  Carpenter will end up as a super utility player and Wong will likely start the season in AAA.  However, if Wong gets off to a fast start in the minors, a mid-season callup is not out of the question.

5th Starter

Here's where things get really interesting.  The Cardinals have 3 pitchers vying for the 5th starter job, Shelby Miller, Trevor Rosenthal and Joe Kelly. 

Miller is considered the favorite, but early shoulder discomfort set him back a week or so and he has yet to pitch in a spring game.

Rosenthal has made two appearances so far this spring.  His first outing, in which he admittedly was pressing, was a bit of a disaster, allowing 4 runs in 2 IP.  He bounced back nicely yesterday, allowing just 1 run in 3 IP. 

Despite his stellar efforts filling in for injured starter Jaime Garcia last season, Kelly is kind of the forgotten man in this year's battle.  He is making his first appearance this spring today and we'll see if he can impress the Cardinals enough to edge out the higher upside competition.

It should be noted that, after two stellar outings, Michael Wacha has entered into the conversation for the 5th starter spot.  However, I think it is in his (and the Cardinals) best interest for him to start the season in the minors.

Overall, I still can see Miller winning this battle, with Kelly being the long man in the Cards bullpen and Rosenthal starting the season at AAA as the Cardinals "6th" starter.  However, at this point the race is still wide open.

I will continue to keep an eye on these battles each week, so stop by each Friday for updates.