Usually when it comes to trade rumors, you can discount much of what is being thrown around as just that, rumors. However, when more than one person is hinting at someone, chances are that it is true. Like they say "where there's smoke, there's fire".
That appears to be the case when it comes to the Cardinals and Tampa Bay's David Price. According to Joe Strauss, the Cardinals remain "fixated" on Price, while Derrick Goold indicates that the Cards interest in Price is reminiscent of their pursuit of Matt Holliday in 2009.
This is a bit surprising, as we were told just a week and a half ago, by Goold himself, that the Cardinals were looking for "hitting not (Jake) Peavy". Of course, Price is not Peavy and, as Strauss points out, beyond Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, there are many questions surrounding the Cards starting rotation.
Despite the loss of Yadier Molina, there is still the belief that the hitting will come around. Matt Holliday is starting to heat up. He is hitting .304/.407/.522 in July and Allen Craig is too good of a hitter to be hitting only .244.
There have been signs of life with the offense and I think that the Cardinals just need to string a few good games together to get on track. However, the way this season has gone so far, that's a big if.
On the flip side, despite being 3rd in the NL in starters ERA, the Cardinals pitching has been shaky as of late. Shelby Miller was recently demoted to the bullpen after posting a 7.30 ERA in his last 5 starts, with the Cards saying he looks "tired". Carlos Martinez has been maddeningly inconsistent, as most rookies are, and Joe Kelly just came off the DL as is still trying to find his form.
Add in that Jaime Garcia is done for the year and Michael Wacha could be out at least until September and you can see why John Mozeliak could be looking to add a pitcher.
So, if you're going to add a pitcher, why not go big?
Well, according to Goold, there are a couple things the Cardinals will need to sort out first, before they even consider a trade for Price: (1) the chances of Price re-signing with them and (2) their willingness to pay the high cost (both in terms of money and prospects).
In his Baseball Tonight podcast last Friday, Buster Olney indicated that he thought that Price would be open to signing an extension with the Cardinals, as St. Louis is close to his hometown of Nashville.
As to the second point, the Cardinals certainly have the money for Price. Their 2014 opening day payroll of $107 million was less than their 2013 payroll of $115 million. Plus, they will have the salaries of Jason Motte ($7.5 million) and Mark Ellis ($5.25 million) coming off the books, giving them at least $20 million to play with. Add in the new MLB TV deal that kicked in this year, as the Cards should be flush with funds.
The main question that remains is whether Mo will be willing to part with the prospects required to last Price.
For his part, Price is making it hard for any team, let alone the Cardinals, to say no, as he has posted an 0.85 ERA over his last 4 starts and a 1.64 ERA over his last 9 starts.
With 11 days until the deadline, it will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
Showing posts with label Jaime Garcia. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Jaime Garcia. Show all posts
Sunday, July 20, 2014
Friday, July 18, 2014
Will the Cardinals make a big splash this trade season?
With the All Star Break out of the way (finally) and meaningful games being played again, many will be turning their focus to the July 31st non-waiver trade deadline.
The last couple years have seen little trade activity for the Cardinals. Last year, the Cards acquired John Axford, but not until after the trade deadline. Before that, in 2012, the team acquired Edward Mujica. In fact, you have to go back to the July 2011 trade deadline for the last significant move at the deadline. That was the year that saw the club trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller and a couple prospects for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepcynski, Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson.
Now, with the deadline less than two weeks away, we're left to ponder what John Mozeliak has up his sleeve this year. Will he make the big move to acquire a hitter or a pitcher or will he just tinker with the bullpen (or make some other minor adjustments)?
The Cardinals have been reportedly looking at adding an offensive upgrade at second or third, which would likely push Kolten Wong to the bench. Ben Zobrist is a prime trade candidate for the Cards, but the Mariners are reportedly pursuing him, according to Jon Paul Morosi.
On the other hand, the season-ending injury to Jaime Garcia and the uncertain status of Michael Wacha, not to mention the recent demotion of Shelby Miller to the pen, have many concerned about the Cardinals pitching depth. Jeff Samardzija is already off the market and while David Price is available, the Cards will have many competitors to acquire his services (including the aforementioned Mariners.).
Derrick Goold was a guest on Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight podcast, in which he indicated that he thinks the Cardinals would at least be willing to discuss a deal involving Oscar Taveras for David Price. At a minimum, Goold says that the Cards will have to address their surplus of outfielders at some point.
Another concern is the loss of Yadier Molina, who will likely be out for the rest of the regular season. ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) reports that the Cardinals are planning to scout the Twins' Kurt Suzuki as a potential upgrade over Tony Cruz and George Kottaras.
My guess is that the Cards will be relatively active this go around. They won't make any big moves, but will make a series of middle-tier moves to shore up their lineup and rotation. I think they will go after Suzuki, then add an infielder, such as Zobrist or Martin Prado and maybe an innings eater, such as Jake Peavy. None of these guys will cost the Cards a lot, but each of them would be an upgrade at the respective positions.
At this point, its all speculation as its difficult to tell which direction Mo will go or if he even will make a move. The team certainly has the pieces in place to make a splash, with an abundance of major league ready outfielders and young arms to dangle in front of selling teams--basically, the Cards have the pieces to acquire any player they want. Its just a question of who do they want and how much are they willing to give up.
The last couple years have seen little trade activity for the Cardinals. Last year, the Cards acquired John Axford, but not until after the trade deadline. Before that, in 2012, the team acquired Edward Mujica. In fact, you have to go back to the July 2011 trade deadline for the last significant move at the deadline. That was the year that saw the club trade Colby Rasmus, Trever Miller and a couple prospects for Edwin Jackson, Marc Rzepcynski, Octavio Dotel and Corey Patterson.
Now, with the deadline less than two weeks away, we're left to ponder what John Mozeliak has up his sleeve this year. Will he make the big move to acquire a hitter or a pitcher or will he just tinker with the bullpen (or make some other minor adjustments)?
The Cardinals have been reportedly looking at adding an offensive upgrade at second or third, which would likely push Kolten Wong to the bench. Ben Zobrist is a prime trade candidate for the Cards, but the Mariners are reportedly pursuing him, according to Jon Paul Morosi.
On the other hand, the season-ending injury to Jaime Garcia and the uncertain status of Michael Wacha, not to mention the recent demotion of Shelby Miller to the pen, have many concerned about the Cardinals pitching depth. Jeff Samardzija is already off the market and while David Price is available, the Cards will have many competitors to acquire his services (including the aforementioned Mariners.).
Derrick Goold was a guest on Buster Olney's Baseball Tonight podcast, in which he indicated that he thinks the Cardinals would at least be willing to discuss a deal involving Oscar Taveras for David Price. At a minimum, Goold says that the Cards will have to address their surplus of outfielders at some point.
Another concern is the loss of Yadier Molina, who will likely be out for the rest of the regular season. ESPN's Jim Bowden (subscription required) reports that the Cardinals are planning to scout the Twins' Kurt Suzuki as a potential upgrade over Tony Cruz and George Kottaras.
My guess is that the Cards will be relatively active this go around. They won't make any big moves, but will make a series of middle-tier moves to shore up their lineup and rotation. I think they will go after Suzuki, then add an infielder, such as Zobrist or Martin Prado and maybe an innings eater, such as Jake Peavy. None of these guys will cost the Cards a lot, but each of them would be an upgrade at the respective positions.
At this point, its all speculation as its difficult to tell which direction Mo will go or if he even will make a move. The team certainly has the pieces in place to make a splash, with an abundance of major league ready outfielders and young arms to dangle in front of selling teams--basically, the Cards have the pieces to acquire any player they want. Its just a question of who do they want and how much are they willing to give up.
Monday, July 7, 2014
Catching up on the Cardinals trade rumors from the holiday weekend
While the Cubs continue to stockpile infield prospects (whatever happened to Josh Vitters?), the Cardinals have more pressing matters at hand, in particular trying to win the NL Central (or at least clinch a Wildcard spot).
With the Cubs trade of Jeff Samardzija to the A's, David Price is the only ace currently on the market. To make things more interesting, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi states that the Rays are willing to trade Price within their own division.
The Cardinals remain in the hunt for Price, according to Morosi, especially given Jaime Garcia's recent season ending surgery and the uncertainty surrounding Michael Wacha's return. However, the Rays recent hot streak has at least delayed a potential trade, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports suggests that the Dodgers could look to acquire Price as a means of forcing a compromise between media giants Time Warner and Direct TV and end the current blackout that is affecting 70% of the Dodgers viewership.
One thing is for certain, with Samardzija off the market, interest in Price will certainly heat up and it will only drive up the asking price for the ace lefty. The Cardinals will still be in the mix, but chances are that John Mozeliak will not pony up the prospects necessary to acquire Price.
With Price looking like less of a possibility, Mozeliak may be turning he attention elsewhere.
According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Cardinals, along with the Blue Jays and Giants are showing interest in Diamondbacks infielders Aaron Hill and Martin Prado. Neither of them are having stellar seasons, with Hill hitting .241/.278/.359 and Prado .268/.314/.357, however, perhaps a change of scenery (and a pennant race) could help them catch fire.
Given a choice between the two, I would rather have Prado as he is younger (30 vs 32 for Hill), has a better career average (.290 vs. .271) and OBP (.340 vs .325). Plus, Prado is more versatile, having played over 200 games at second, third and leftfield for his career (Hill has played second base exclusively since 2007).
Obviously, these are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Cardinals trade rumors, as there are probably many more that are not reported (or leaked), but it looks like the Cards are at least trying to make a significant move to help this team.
With the Cubs trade of Jeff Samardzija to the A's, David Price is the only ace currently on the market. To make things more interesting, Fox Sports' Jon Paul Morosi states that the Rays are willing to trade Price within their own division.
The Cardinals remain in the hunt for Price, according to Morosi, especially given Jaime Garcia's recent season ending surgery and the uncertainty surrounding Michael Wacha's return. However, the Rays recent hot streak has at least delayed a potential trade, according to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times.
Meanwhile, Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports suggests that the Dodgers could look to acquire Price as a means of forcing a compromise between media giants Time Warner and Direct TV and end the current blackout that is affecting 70% of the Dodgers viewership.
One thing is for certain, with Samardzija off the market, interest in Price will certainly heat up and it will only drive up the asking price for the ace lefty. The Cardinals will still be in the mix, but chances are that John Mozeliak will not pony up the prospects necessary to acquire Price.
With Price looking like less of a possibility, Mozeliak may be turning he attention elsewhere.
According to Jon Paul Morosi, the Cardinals, along with the Blue Jays and Giants are showing interest in Diamondbacks infielders Aaron Hill and Martin Prado. Neither of them are having stellar seasons, with Hill hitting .241/.278/.359 and Prado .268/.314/.357, however, perhaps a change of scenery (and a pennant race) could help them catch fire.
Given a choice between the two, I would rather have Prado as he is younger (30 vs 32 for Hill), has a better career average (.290 vs. .271) and OBP (.340 vs .325). Plus, Prado is more versatile, having played over 200 games at second, third and leftfield for his career (Hill has played second base exclusively since 2007).
Obviously, these are probably just the tip of the iceberg when it comes to the Cardinals trade rumors, as there are probably many more that are not reported (or leaked), but it looks like the Cards are at least trying to make a significant move to help this team.
Monday, June 23, 2014
Could the latest injuries to the Cardinals starting rotation make them more likely to pursue David Price?
The recent losses of Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia have created a big hole in the Cardinals starting rotation. Carlos Martinez will fill one of those spots, however, he has made just two big league starts and it remains to be seen how he will fare. The other replacement is likely to be Tyler Lyons, who has a career 5.89 ERA as a starter.
Obviously, the Cardinals could use some help.
Which brings us back to David Price.
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, "the Cardinals have been watching the Rays closely recently" and were among the teams watching Price pitch on June 20th. Topkin also suggested that the Cards recent injuries could increase their interest in Price.
Of course, interest in the left handed ace will be high. Topkin suggested that the Dodgers are likely the frontrunner to land Price, with the Giants, Braves, Angels, A's, Indians and the surprising Marlins also possibilities.
However, despite recently losing Gavin Floyd to injury, Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that the Braves are unlikely to pursue Price. The Braves are already over budget and have a solid rotation with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Alex Wood.
Also, while you can never rule out the Rays trading Price within their own division, it would likely cost those teams, such as the Yankees, considerably more to acquire him.
Topkin also suggested that the Rays trade Price now, an idea echoed by Gary Shelton of the Tampa Bay Times. Price is obviously unhappy in Tampa, what with the team in last place and the constant trade rumors. Its best to move him now, especially before the market for the other top tier pitchers, such as Jeff Samardzija and Cliff Lee heats up.
Needless to say, the trade market just got a whole lot more interesting for the Cardinals and things could happen quickly.
Obviously, the Cardinals could use some help.
Which brings us back to David Price.
According to Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times, "the Cardinals have been watching the Rays closely recently" and were among the teams watching Price pitch on June 20th. Topkin also suggested that the Cards recent injuries could increase their interest in Price.
Of course, interest in the left handed ace will be high. Topkin suggested that the Dodgers are likely the frontrunner to land Price, with the Giants, Braves, Angels, A's, Indians and the surprising Marlins also possibilities.
However, despite recently losing Gavin Floyd to injury, Dave O'Brien of the Atlanta Journal-Constitution says that the Braves are unlikely to pursue Price. The Braves are already over budget and have a solid rotation with Julio Teheran, Mike Minor, Ervin Santana, Aaron Harang and Alex Wood.
Also, while you can never rule out the Rays trading Price within their own division, it would likely cost those teams, such as the Yankees, considerably more to acquire him.
Topkin also suggested that the Rays trade Price now, an idea echoed by Gary Shelton of the Tampa Bay Times. Price is obviously unhappy in Tampa, what with the team in last place and the constant trade rumors. Its best to move him now, especially before the market for the other top tier pitchers, such as Jeff Samardzija and Cliff Lee heats up.
Needless to say, the trade market just got a whole lot more interesting for the Cardinals and things could happen quickly.
Sunday, June 22, 2014
Cardinals lose 40% of their starting rotation. What next?
While not as bad as losing a lead in the last couple minutes of your soccer match, the Cardinals starting rotation sustained a big blow today when both Michael Wacha and Jaime Garcia were placed on the DL due to shoulder issues.
For Garcia, shoulder issues are nothing new. What is surprising is that he was able to come back and pitch effectively, even if it was just 7 starts. Garcia reaggravated his left shoulder, which was surgically repaired last year.
On the other hand, Wacha suffered what is being called a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder and will miss at least a few weeks, probably more.
Carlos Martinez, who made his second start today while filling in for Wacha, will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future, while the Cardinals have yet to name a replacement for Garcia, who was scheduled to pitch Wednesday.
The most likely option is Tyler Lyons, who last pitched on June 19th and is on the 40-man roster. However, he might not be the best option if these injuries stretch out over a month.
Joe Kelly, who started the season in the rotation before suffering a hamstring injury, is almost ready to start a rehab assignment and could be ready to rejoin the rotation in early July.
In any case, this is just another test of the Cardinals depth and it will be interesting to see if this changes the Cards targets as the trade deadline approached.
For Garcia, shoulder issues are nothing new. What is surprising is that he was able to come back and pitch effectively, even if it was just 7 starts. Garcia reaggravated his left shoulder, which was surgically repaired last year.
On the other hand, Wacha suffered what is being called a stress reaction in his pitching shoulder and will miss at least a few weeks, probably more.
Carlos Martinez, who made his second start today while filling in for Wacha, will stay in the rotation for the foreseeable future, while the Cardinals have yet to name a replacement for Garcia, who was scheduled to pitch Wednesday.
The most likely option is Tyler Lyons, who last pitched on June 19th and is on the 40-man roster. However, he might not be the best option if these injuries stretch out over a month.
Joe Kelly, who started the season in the rotation before suffering a hamstring injury, is almost ready to start a rehab assignment and could be ready to rejoin the rotation in early July.
In any case, this is just another test of the Cardinals depth and it will be interesting to see if this changes the Cards targets as the trade deadline approached.
Sunday, June 15, 2014
Should the Cardinals pursue David Price and, if so, what might he cost them?
Last week I opined as to what the Cardinals needs might be heading into trading season. Bullpen help is their main priority, but there is also the possibility that the Cardinals could make a big splash and try to pull off a blockbuster deal.
A little while ago, Ken Rosenthal suggested that the Cards should pursue a big-name starting pitcher, such as David Price and, with the recent elbow issues of Adam Wainwright, that is a distinct possibility. However, Rosenthal recently indicated that the team is hesitant to go shopping for a starter, as they still have internal options, such as Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.
Early indications are that Wainwright's injury is not serious, but it does raise concerns. Waino is definitely the Cardinals ace and while Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia have all pitched well, a long-term injury to Wainwright would definitely hurt the Cards playoff chances.
Plus, could you imagine a big 3 of Wainwright, Wacha and Price in the playoffs? The Cardinals would definitely be tough to beat.
Price would be under team control through the 2015 season, which means he is not the typical "rental" player available this time of year and it would give the Cards time to negotiate a potential extension with him.
Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to acquiring Price, but at what cost?
The best comparison to determine the asking price for Price is to look at the Rays trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in December 2012. At that time, the Rays acquired Wil Meyers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard from the Royals for those two pitchers.
To put that package in perspective, Meyers was the Royals #1 prospect and the 4th best in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Odorizzi was the Royals #5 prospect and ranked 92nd overall by Baseball America. Montgomery had fallen off the charts a bit, but was once a top 50 prospect and Leonard was a low-level, unranked power hitting prospect.
What might the equivalent package be that the Cards would have to pony up for Price?
Well, you have to consider that the Royals were getting two quality arms in their deal, however Price is considered a much better pitcher than either Shields or Davis, so that probably balances out.
Thus, I would think that any discussion would probably start with Oscar Taveras. The Cards would probably have to include a pitcher who is close to major-league ready as well, such as Tim Cooney and then a couple lesser prospects.
The question then is: Is it worth the cost?
Would you be willing to part with your top hitting prospect for arguably the best pitcher on the market?
Considering the logjam of outfielders that the Cards have in their system both in the majors (Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay and Allen Craig), as well as at AAA (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk) and even AA (James Ramsey), parting with a top talent like Taveras for a lefthanded "ace" like Price is a little less painfull.
Overall, I think that, if the Cards could land Price for some package involving Taveras, they should go for it. Pitching wins championships.
What do you think?
A little while ago, Ken Rosenthal suggested that the Cards should pursue a big-name starting pitcher, such as David Price and, with the recent elbow issues of Adam Wainwright, that is a distinct possibility. However, Rosenthal recently indicated that the team is hesitant to go shopping for a starter, as they still have internal options, such as Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez.
Early indications are that Wainwright's injury is not serious, but it does raise concerns. Waino is definitely the Cardinals ace and while Michael Wacha, Lance Lynn, Shelby Miller and Jaime Garcia have all pitched well, a long-term injury to Wainwright would definitely hurt the Cards playoff chances.
Plus, could you imagine a big 3 of Wainwright, Wacha and Price in the playoffs? The Cardinals would definitely be tough to beat.
Price would be under team control through the 2015 season, which means he is not the typical "rental" player available this time of year and it would give the Cards time to negotiate a potential extension with him.
Obviously, there are a lot of benefits to acquiring Price, but at what cost?
The best comparison to determine the asking price for Price is to look at the Rays trade of James Shields and Wade Davis to the Royals in December 2012. At that time, the Rays acquired Wil Meyers, Jake Odorizzi, Mike Montgomery and Patrick Leonard from the Royals for those two pitchers.
To put that package in perspective, Meyers was the Royals #1 prospect and the 4th best in all of baseball according to Baseball America. Odorizzi was the Royals #5 prospect and ranked 92nd overall by Baseball America. Montgomery had fallen off the charts a bit, but was once a top 50 prospect and Leonard was a low-level, unranked power hitting prospect.
What might the equivalent package be that the Cards would have to pony up for Price?
Well, you have to consider that the Royals were getting two quality arms in their deal, however Price is considered a much better pitcher than either Shields or Davis, so that probably balances out.
Thus, I would think that any discussion would probably start with Oscar Taveras. The Cards would probably have to include a pitcher who is close to major-league ready as well, such as Tim Cooney and then a couple lesser prospects.
The question then is: Is it worth the cost?
Would you be willing to part with your top hitting prospect for arguably the best pitcher on the market?
Considering the logjam of outfielders that the Cards have in their system both in the majors (Matt Holliday, Peter Bourjos, Jon Jay and Allen Craig), as well as at AAA (Stephen Piscotty, Randal Grichuk) and even AA (James Ramsey), parting with a top talent like Taveras for a lefthanded "ace" like Price is a little less painfull.
Overall, I think that, if the Cards could land Price for some package involving Taveras, they should go for it. Pitching wins championships.
What do you think?
Sunday, May 18, 2014
Cardinals Mailbag
As part of the United Cardinals Bloggers May project, we created a mailbag format where each blogger is asked a question from a group of fellow Cardinals bloggers and provides a response to each.
As a result, here is the first CFCL mailbag (sponsored by the UCB):
Bill Ivie, I-70 Baseball - Your site is dedicated to your father, who you say "without whom my love for the Cardinals would have never been born." My father was very important to my love of the game and I'm intrigued. If you don't mind, could you share with us a story about your father and how he helped you come to love the Birds on the Bat instead of the Baby Bears?
Growing up in Normal, Illinois, the Cubs and Cardinals fans were pretty evenly split, however there was never a question as to which team I would root for. My dad spent the formative years of his life in Clayton, Missouri and once got to see Dizzy Dean pitch against Carl Hubbell. His love for the game and the Cardinals rubbed off on me and stays with me to this day.
As the beneficiary of a June birthday, my gift each year was to go down to St. Louis for a weekend Cardinals series with my family. While my sister never was really into baseball and my brother outgrew the sport and turned his interests to music, the love of baseball and the Cardinals is something my dad and I always shared.
Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants - In your years of following the St. Louis Cardinals, what is your favorite moment?
There have been many great moments in my years of following the Cards, including the 2011 World Series game 6, attending Lou Brock day back when Brock was my favorite player and getting to shake hands with Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith at the Adams Mark hotel bar after a game.
However, my favorite memory has to be watching the 7th game of the 1982 World Series with my dad and brother in our living room. I sat in silence for a few seconds after Bruce Sutter struck out Gorman Thomas to win it, before joining my dad and brother in celebration.
After becoming a diehard Cardinals fan in the mid-1970's, getting to finally see the Cards win a World Series for the first time (in my lifetime) was a special moment for me and to be able to share it with my dad and brother made it that much more special.
Ben Chambers, The View From Here - What is the hardest part of being "behind enemy lines"?
Probably the hardest thing about living in the Chicago area, is the inability to follow the Cardinals as closely as I use to.
When I was growing up in Central Illinois, I listened to the Cards on the radio every night and watched the games regularly, when the Cardinals games were picked up by one of our local TV stations. Nowadays, I can only catch the Cards on national telecasts.
Other than that, the fans are tolerable (I'm married to one), especially now that they are rebuilding and you don't have fair-weather fans coming out of the woodwork. But, if they were to become relevant again, that could certainly change.
Dan Buffa, Dose of Buffa - Can you see any huge differences between this team under John Mabry as hitting coach as opposed to Mark McGwire?
You mean other than the fact that the Cardinals can't seem to score runs this year compared to prior years?
In all seriousness, I don't put a lot of stock in hitting coaches having a significant impact on a team. For the most part, hitters know their swing and can tell when they are out of sync and the coach can help them tweak things on occassion.
Its rare that you are going to change a hitters approach once they reach the major leagues (see Colby Rasmus), so the main thing that I think a hitting coach does is to help hitters who are struggling sort out their mechanics and all that entails is watching some video.
Daniel Shoptaw, C70 At The Bat - What one move would you make to shake up this team and get it out of the .500 doldrums?
I don't know if there is one move that will shake up this team and get it back on track, as the biggest issue has been the lack of offense. The only thing Mike Matheny can do about that is to keep trotting the under-performers, like Allen Craig, out there in hopes that they can get hot.
Other than that, guys getting healthy, like Jason Motte and even Jaime Garcia, should give the other problem area, the bullpen, a boost as Garcia's return to the rotation would allow the Cardinals to move Joe Kelly back to the pen (when he's healthy again).
The only move that the Cardinals have yet to try (and that fans have been clamoring for) is to promote Oscar Taveras and start him in center field. However, while he might improve the offense, he would probably make an already poor outfield defense even worse.
Basically, the talent is there for the Cards to go on a run, they just have to play up to their abilities.
John Nagel, Cardinals Farm -Since you are a history buff, what is another Cards team that had plenty of talent but couldn't put it together?
The Cardinals team that stands out to me as having the most talent and not being able to put it together was the 1986 team.
This was basically the same team as the World Series team of 1985. After leading the NL in runs scored in 1985 with 747, the 1986 team struggled to score runs (sound familiar), finishing last in runs scored (601), average (.236) and OBP (.309).
Only a solid pitching staff that finished the season 4th in ERA (3.37) helped the Cardinals avoid total disaster that year. They dug themselves a big hole with a 36-50 record in the first half, but showed that they had the talent to win, going 43-32 in the second half of the season to end up with an overall record of 79-82.
After adding Tony Pena via trade after the 1986 season and promoting Joe Magrane to join the starting rotation, the 1987 Cardinals once again rose to the top and made it back to the World Series, but, to me at least, the 1986 season for the Cards will always be one of the biggest disappointments.
Kevin Reynolds, Stl Cards 'N Stuff - How has blogging about baseball changed your experience of baseball? Bonus Question: What single position (non-position) on the Cards roster do you see being filled with a future core player from the farm system not currently with the big league team? Who/why/etc.?
I think that, living in the Chicago area, I have not been able to follow the Cardinals as closely as I have in the past. Starting a blog on the Cardinals has helped me "reconnect" with the team.
The easiest answer to your second question is that the Cardinals will eventually make room for Oscar Taveras at one of the corner outfield spots by trading one of Matt Holliday, Allen Craig or Matt Adams.
However, to dig a little deeper, I'm not currently sold on either of our center field options nor is Jhonny Peralta a long-term solution at short. I think the center field will eventually be filled by James Ramsey. He is making some noise at AA Springfield this season (.305/.393/.583 with 11 homers in 151 at bats) and is well regarded for his leadership and makeup.
As for shortstop, I think the Cardinals will eventually have to look outside the organization to fill that hole (again).
That's it for this mailbag. If anyone has any questions they would like me to answer for future mailbags, please send them to: watershark67@yahoo.com.
As a result, here is the first CFCL mailbag (sponsored by the UCB):
Bill Ivie, I-70 Baseball - Your site is dedicated to your father, who you say "without whom my love for the Cardinals would have never been born." My father was very important to my love of the game and I'm intrigued. If you don't mind, could you share with us a story about your father and how he helped you come to love the Birds on the Bat instead of the Baby Bears?
Growing up in Normal, Illinois, the Cubs and Cardinals fans were pretty evenly split, however there was never a question as to which team I would root for. My dad spent the formative years of his life in Clayton, Missouri and once got to see Dizzy Dean pitch against Carl Hubbell. His love for the game and the Cardinals rubbed off on me and stays with me to this day.
As the beneficiary of a June birthday, my gift each year was to go down to St. Louis for a weekend Cardinals series with my family. While my sister never was really into baseball and my brother outgrew the sport and turned his interests to music, the love of baseball and the Cardinals is something my dad and I always shared.
Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants - In your years of following the St. Louis Cardinals, what is your favorite moment?
There have been many great moments in my years of following the Cards, including the 2011 World Series game 6, attending Lou Brock day back when Brock was my favorite player and getting to shake hands with Willie McGee and Ozzie Smith at the Adams Mark hotel bar after a game.
However, my favorite memory has to be watching the 7th game of the 1982 World Series with my dad and brother in our living room. I sat in silence for a few seconds after Bruce Sutter struck out Gorman Thomas to win it, before joining my dad and brother in celebration.
After becoming a diehard Cardinals fan in the mid-1970's, getting to finally see the Cards win a World Series for the first time (in my lifetime) was a special moment for me and to be able to share it with my dad and brother made it that much more special.
Ben Chambers, The View From Here - What is the hardest part of being "behind enemy lines"?
Probably the hardest thing about living in the Chicago area, is the inability to follow the Cardinals as closely as I use to.
When I was growing up in Central Illinois, I listened to the Cards on the radio every night and watched the games regularly, when the Cardinals games were picked up by one of our local TV stations. Nowadays, I can only catch the Cards on national telecasts.
Other than that, the fans are tolerable (I'm married to one), especially now that they are rebuilding and you don't have fair-weather fans coming out of the woodwork. But, if they were to become relevant again, that could certainly change.
Dan Buffa, Dose of Buffa - Can you see any huge differences between this team under John Mabry as hitting coach as opposed to Mark McGwire?
You mean other than the fact that the Cardinals can't seem to score runs this year compared to prior years?
In all seriousness, I don't put a lot of stock in hitting coaches having a significant impact on a team. For the most part, hitters know their swing and can tell when they are out of sync and the coach can help them tweak things on occassion.
Its rare that you are going to change a hitters approach once they reach the major leagues (see Colby Rasmus), so the main thing that I think a hitting coach does is to help hitters who are struggling sort out their mechanics and all that entails is watching some video.
Daniel Shoptaw, C70 At The Bat - What one move would you make to shake up this team and get it out of the .500 doldrums?
I don't know if there is one move that will shake up this team and get it back on track, as the biggest issue has been the lack of offense. The only thing Mike Matheny can do about that is to keep trotting the under-performers, like Allen Craig, out there in hopes that they can get hot.
Other than that, guys getting healthy, like Jason Motte and even Jaime Garcia, should give the other problem area, the bullpen, a boost as Garcia's return to the rotation would allow the Cardinals to move Joe Kelly back to the pen (when he's healthy again).
The only move that the Cardinals have yet to try (and that fans have been clamoring for) is to promote Oscar Taveras and start him in center field. However, while he might improve the offense, he would probably make an already poor outfield defense even worse.
Basically, the talent is there for the Cards to go on a run, they just have to play up to their abilities.
John Nagel, Cardinals Farm -Since you are a history buff, what is another Cards team that had plenty of talent but couldn't put it together?
The Cardinals team that stands out to me as having the most talent and not being able to put it together was the 1986 team.
This was basically the same team as the World Series team of 1985. After leading the NL in runs scored in 1985 with 747, the 1986 team struggled to score runs (sound familiar), finishing last in runs scored (601), average (.236) and OBP (.309).
Only a solid pitching staff that finished the season 4th in ERA (3.37) helped the Cardinals avoid total disaster that year. They dug themselves a big hole with a 36-50 record in the first half, but showed that they had the talent to win, going 43-32 in the second half of the season to end up with an overall record of 79-82.
After adding Tony Pena via trade after the 1986 season and promoting Joe Magrane to join the starting rotation, the 1987 Cardinals once again rose to the top and made it back to the World Series, but, to me at least, the 1986 season for the Cards will always be one of the biggest disappointments.
Kevin Reynolds, Stl Cards 'N Stuff - How has blogging about baseball changed your experience of baseball? Bonus Question: What single position (non-position) on the Cards roster do you see being filled with a future core player from the farm system not currently with the big league team? Who/why/etc.?
I think that, living in the Chicago area, I have not been able to follow the Cardinals as closely as I have in the past. Starting a blog on the Cardinals has helped me "reconnect" with the team.
The easiest answer to your second question is that the Cardinals will eventually make room for Oscar Taveras at one of the corner outfield spots by trading one of Matt Holliday, Allen Craig or Matt Adams.
However, to dig a little deeper, I'm not currently sold on either of our center field options nor is Jhonny Peralta a long-term solution at short. I think the center field will eventually be filled by James Ramsey. He is making some noise at AA Springfield this season (.305/.393/.583 with 11 homers in 151 at bats) and is well regarded for his leadership and makeup.
As for shortstop, I think the Cardinals will eventually have to look outside the organization to fill that hole (again).
That's it for this mailbag. If anyone has any questions they would like me to answer for future mailbags, please send them to: watershark67@yahoo.com.
Tuesday, May 13, 2014
Jaime Garcia set to return to Cardinals rotation and other notes
Tyler Lyons was placed on the 15-day DL today, one day after getting roughed up by the Cubs. While that is an interesting move (considering that Mike Matheny left him in the game long enough to give up 9 runs in 4 innings), what is more interesting is who might replace him in the rotation...Jaime Garcia.
Garcia pitched 5 innings on Monday for AAA Memphis, giving up just 2 runs on 3 hits, while striking out 5. It was just his second rehab appearance, but speculation has already begun that he will get the call for the Cardinals on Saturday.
If Garcia makes the start on Saturday, it will be one year to the day from his last major league start, which came on May 17, 2013 against the Brewers.
It will be interesting to see if he still has the same stuff as he had before his shoulder issues. Shoulder injuries are the most difficult to come back from as a pitcher, so here's hoping for the best for Garcia.
In other news, GM John Mozeliak indicated that Kolten Wong could be recalled soon. He's reportedly "checked all the boxes" while hitting .344/.382/.484 in 15 games since his demotion.
The Cardinals are certainly looking for any kind of spark to their offense (as long as it does not involve calling up Oscar Taveras before June) and Mark Ellis (.203/.273/237) hasn't exactly been tearing it up as Wong's replacement.
Finally, the Cards continue to shuffle the back end of their bullpen, calling up both lefty Sam Freeman and righty Jorge Rondon, while sending down Eric Fornataro and placing Lyons on the DL. However, their stays may be short as one of them will be replaced by Garcia this weekend, while the other could soon be replaced by the rehabbing Jason Motte.
Motte has yet to give up a run in 5 appearances between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis (4.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 3 K's) and his return would certainly provide a boost to the Cardinals pen.
Garcia pitched 5 innings on Monday for AAA Memphis, giving up just 2 runs on 3 hits, while striking out 5. It was just his second rehab appearance, but speculation has already begun that he will get the call for the Cardinals on Saturday.
If Garcia makes the start on Saturday, it will be one year to the day from his last major league start, which came on May 17, 2013 against the Brewers.
It will be interesting to see if he still has the same stuff as he had before his shoulder issues. Shoulder injuries are the most difficult to come back from as a pitcher, so here's hoping for the best for Garcia.
In other news, GM John Mozeliak indicated that Kolten Wong could be recalled soon. He's reportedly "checked all the boxes" while hitting .344/.382/.484 in 15 games since his demotion.
The Cardinals are certainly looking for any kind of spark to their offense (as long as it does not involve calling up Oscar Taveras before June) and Mark Ellis (.203/.273/237) hasn't exactly been tearing it up as Wong's replacement.
Finally, the Cards continue to shuffle the back end of their bullpen, calling up both lefty Sam Freeman and righty Jorge Rondon, while sending down Eric Fornataro and placing Lyons on the DL. However, their stays may be short as one of them will be replaced by Garcia this weekend, while the other could soon be replaced by the rehabbing Jason Motte.
Motte has yet to give up a run in 5 appearances between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis (4.2 IP, 2 hits, 1 walk, 3 K's) and his return would certainly provide a boost to the Cardinals pen.
Monday, May 5, 2014
For Cardinals, help is on the way--just not soon enough for us fans
Its obvious that the Cardinals could use some help. They lost two out of three to both the Brewers and Cubs before winning the opener against the Braves, bringing their season record to 17-16, 4.5 games behind the Central leading Brewers.
After leading the NL in runs scored last year, the Cardinals currently sit in 10th place with 119 runs in 33 games (3.6 per game). However, don't expect star prospect Oscar Taveras any time soon.
According to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, Taveras is "average at best" in center field and it "makes more sense for him to play everyday" at AAA Memphis. In other words, we are not going to promote him until after the Super Two cutoff in June.
Thus, center field incumbents Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos and even Randal Grichuk have until then to prove themselves worthy of retaining their jobs or one of them will be replaced by Taveras.
The other shaky area for the team is the bullpen, which is 1-5 on the year with 3 blown saves. While guys like Pat Neshek, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate have done great jobs setting up for closer Trevor Rosenthal, the back-end of the pen has struggled.
Mike Matheny has been wary of relying on guys like last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness, as well as rookies Keith Butler and Eric Fornataro, and for good reason. They have combined to go 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA.
However, the light at the end of the tunnel is former closer Jason Motte. Motte struck out the side in his first rehab appearance at AA Springfield on Sunday and will likely need 2-3 more weeks of rehab according to Mozeliak.
If he can regain his form, he can help solidify the bullpen and ease the burden on Neshek, Martinez and Siegrist. He would likely replace rookie Fornataro on the roster.
Finally, after everyone held their collective breath when Jaime Garcia was hit on his left elbow during a rehab outing at AA Springfield on Sunday, it appears to be minor as he will likely pitch off the mound tomorrow and only push back his next start by a few days.
The Cardinals still view Garcia as a starter and its safe to assume that when (or if) he returns, he will be placed in the rotation. Assuming he returns to form, this will allow the team to shift Joe Kelly back to the pen and either allow the team to demote Seth Maness to AAA to get his sinker working again or send Martinez down to stretch him out for starting duty.
In any case, adding Taveras, Motte and Garcia to the mix would certainly help the team and improve the overall depth. However, since its unlikely that all of the 3 will be here before June, we are all just hoping that the team can keep within striking distance of the Brewers until then.
After leading the NL in runs scored last year, the Cardinals currently sit in 10th place with 119 runs in 33 games (3.6 per game). However, don't expect star prospect Oscar Taveras any time soon.
According to Cardinals GM John Mozeliak, Taveras is "average at best" in center field and it "makes more sense for him to play everyday" at AAA Memphis. In other words, we are not going to promote him until after the Super Two cutoff in June.
Thus, center field incumbents Jon Jay, Peter Bourjos and even Randal Grichuk have until then to prove themselves worthy of retaining their jobs or one of them will be replaced by Taveras.
The other shaky area for the team is the bullpen, which is 1-5 on the year with 3 blown saves. While guys like Pat Neshek, Carlos Martinez, Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate have done great jobs setting up for closer Trevor Rosenthal, the back-end of the pen has struggled.
Mike Matheny has been wary of relying on guys like last year's ground ball specialist Seth Maness, as well as rookies Keith Butler and Eric Fornataro, and for good reason. They have combined to go 0-2 with a 6.62 ERA.
However, the light at the end of the tunnel is former closer Jason Motte. Motte struck out the side in his first rehab appearance at AA Springfield on Sunday and will likely need 2-3 more weeks of rehab according to Mozeliak.
If he can regain his form, he can help solidify the bullpen and ease the burden on Neshek, Martinez and Siegrist. He would likely replace rookie Fornataro on the roster.
Finally, after everyone held their collective breath when Jaime Garcia was hit on his left elbow during a rehab outing at AA Springfield on Sunday, it appears to be minor as he will likely pitch off the mound tomorrow and only push back his next start by a few days.
The Cardinals still view Garcia as a starter and its safe to assume that when (or if) he returns, he will be placed in the rotation. Assuming he returns to form, this will allow the team to shift Joe Kelly back to the pen and either allow the team to demote Seth Maness to AAA to get his sinker working again or send Martinez down to stretch him out for starting duty.
In any case, adding Taveras, Motte and Garcia to the mix would certainly help the team and improve the overall depth. However, since its unlikely that all of the 3 will be here before June, we are all just hoping that the team can keep within striking distance of the Brewers until then.
Monday, March 10, 2014
Carlos Martinez has early edge on Joe Kelly for 5th starter spot
I know its still early in spring training, but it appears that Carlos Martinez already has a leg up on Joe Kelly for the 5th starter job.
With each pitcher having two starts under their belt, Martinez has been more impressive so far, sporting a 3.00 ERA in his 6 innings of work, whereas Kelly has an unsightly 15.75 ERA in just 4 innings. Kelly was lit up in his last start against the Nationals, giving up 5 runs in just 2.1 innings, which is the main reason for his bloated ERA.
Of course, Kelly is probably wondering why he even has to try out for the 5th starter spot. Especially after posting a 9-2 record and 1.91 ERA in the second half of last season (12 starts).
Dark horse, Tyler Lyons, appears headed for AAA Memphis, after giving up 7 runs in just 0.1 innings today against Detroit. That ballooned his ERA up to 12.71 on the spring.
Whoever ends up with the job may not have it for long, as Jaime Garcia is making progress from his shoulder injury. According to Rick Hummel, Garcia will visit with Dr. James Andrews, starting today, to undergo two days of tests on his shoulder. Should everything check out fine, he could begin throwing as soon as Wednesday.
For his part, Garcia says he feels good and this is by no means a setback. If he continues to progress, I would estimate his return sometime late April or early May. However, as Cardinals fans are aware, these things almost never go smoothly.
In any case, Martinez seems to have positioned himself well for the 5th starter gig and I, along with Cardinals fans everywhere, will keep a close eye on how Garcia progresses.
With each pitcher having two starts under their belt, Martinez has been more impressive so far, sporting a 3.00 ERA in his 6 innings of work, whereas Kelly has an unsightly 15.75 ERA in just 4 innings. Kelly was lit up in his last start against the Nationals, giving up 5 runs in just 2.1 innings, which is the main reason for his bloated ERA.
Of course, Kelly is probably wondering why he even has to try out for the 5th starter spot. Especially after posting a 9-2 record and 1.91 ERA in the second half of last season (12 starts).
Dark horse, Tyler Lyons, appears headed for AAA Memphis, after giving up 7 runs in just 0.1 innings today against Detroit. That ballooned his ERA up to 12.71 on the spring.
Whoever ends up with the job may not have it for long, as Jaime Garcia is making progress from his shoulder injury. According to Rick Hummel, Garcia will visit with Dr. James Andrews, starting today, to undergo two days of tests on his shoulder. Should everything check out fine, he could begin throwing as soon as Wednesday.
For his part, Garcia says he feels good and this is by no means a setback. If he continues to progress, I would estimate his return sometime late April or early May. However, as Cardinals fans are aware, these things almost never go smoothly.
In any case, Martinez seems to have positioned himself well for the 5th starter gig and I, along with Cardinals fans everywhere, will keep a close eye on how Garcia progresses.
Wednesday, March 5, 2014
Spring Training Battle #1: 5th Starter
With Spring Training games already underway, its time to take a look at some of the Cardinals Spring Training Battles.
First off is the one that everyone will be paying attention to the 5th Starter job.
With Jaime Garcia out indefinitely, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly and Tyler Lyons will battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. Here's a breakdown of each of the candidates.
Joe Kelly
Kelly would have to be considered the favorite for the 5th spot, at least at this point.
Over the last two seasons, Kelly has compiled a 13-9 record and 3.03 ERA in 31 starts for the Cardinals, including 9-2 with a 1.91 ERA during the second half of 2013.
However, for some reason, the Cards do not appear to favor Kelly as a starter, forcing him to compete for the 5th spot despite those gaudy stats.
The same thing happened with Kelly in the spring of 2013. Kelly had to compete with Shelby Miller for the 5th spot, before eventually losing and being relegated to a long relief role.
Perhaps with his more recent success, the Cardinals will give him the 5th spot this year
Carlos Martinez
Martinez has probably the best stuff of the 3 competitors and it was somewhat telling the the Cardinals allowed him to pitch 3 innings in his first spring start.
The biggest question though is whether the Cardinals think they are better off with him in the rotation or the bullpen. Martinez was impressive in the 2013 postseason, manning the 8th inning role and setting up for closer Trevor Rosenthal.
With Jason Motte still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals may want to return Martinez to that same 8th inning role, at least until Motte is ready.
In addition, Martinez could probably use some more time in AAA to work on his changeup before he is considered ready for the rotation. However, if he has an impressive spring he could force his way into the 5th spot.
Tyler Lyons
Lyons is a bit of a long shot to earn the 5th starter spot. He doesn't have the stuff of Martinez nor the experience of Kelly. However, what he does have is the fact that he's lefthanded.
If the Cardinals feel they are better off with a lefty in the rotation, Lyons would likely get the nod.
Besides, its not like he's chopped liver as a pitcher. He had an impressive 3.32 ERA in the hitter-friendly PCL in 2013 and won his first two big league starts, allowing just 2 runs in 14 innings, before the league adjusted (and he didn't).
However, he would have to have an outstanding spring to overtake both Kelly and Martinez.
Prediction
Overall I think Kelly will get the nod as the 5th starter. His experience and performance last year says he deserves the shot.
Martinez will likely be put in the bullpen to start the 2014 season, at least until Motte is ready. Then he will probaly be sent down to work on his secondary pitches.
Lyons will probably head to AAA to keep himself stretched out. He would likely be the first guy called up when the Cardinals need another starter.
First off is the one that everyone will be paying attention to the 5th Starter job.
With Jaime Garcia out indefinitely, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly and Tyler Lyons will battle for the 5th spot in the rotation. Here's a breakdown of each of the candidates.
Joe Kelly
Kelly would have to be considered the favorite for the 5th spot, at least at this point.
Over the last two seasons, Kelly has compiled a 13-9 record and 3.03 ERA in 31 starts for the Cardinals, including 9-2 with a 1.91 ERA during the second half of 2013.
However, for some reason, the Cards do not appear to favor Kelly as a starter, forcing him to compete for the 5th spot despite those gaudy stats.
The same thing happened with Kelly in the spring of 2013. Kelly had to compete with Shelby Miller for the 5th spot, before eventually losing and being relegated to a long relief role.
Perhaps with his more recent success, the Cardinals will give him the 5th spot this year
Carlos Martinez
Martinez has probably the best stuff of the 3 competitors and it was somewhat telling the the Cardinals allowed him to pitch 3 innings in his first spring start.
The biggest question though is whether the Cardinals think they are better off with him in the rotation or the bullpen. Martinez was impressive in the 2013 postseason, manning the 8th inning role and setting up for closer Trevor Rosenthal.
With Jason Motte still recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals may want to return Martinez to that same 8th inning role, at least until Motte is ready.
In addition, Martinez could probably use some more time in AAA to work on his changeup before he is considered ready for the rotation. However, if he has an impressive spring he could force his way into the 5th spot.
Tyler Lyons
Lyons is a bit of a long shot to earn the 5th starter spot. He doesn't have the stuff of Martinez nor the experience of Kelly. However, what he does have is the fact that he's lefthanded.
If the Cardinals feel they are better off with a lefty in the rotation, Lyons would likely get the nod.
Besides, its not like he's chopped liver as a pitcher. He had an impressive 3.32 ERA in the hitter-friendly PCL in 2013 and won his first two big league starts, allowing just 2 runs in 14 innings, before the league adjusted (and he didn't).
However, he would have to have an outstanding spring to overtake both Kelly and Martinez.
Prediction
Overall I think Kelly will get the nod as the 5th starter. His experience and performance last year says he deserves the shot.
Martinez will likely be put in the bullpen to start the 2014 season, at least until Motte is ready. Then he will probaly be sent down to work on his secondary pitches.
Lyons will probably head to AAA to keep himself stretched out. He would likely be the first guy called up when the Cardinals need another starter.
Thursday, February 27, 2014
Cardinals and Jaime Garcia dodge a bullet, for now
Jaime Garcia has been diagnosed with shoulder inflamation, as MRI's showed no structural damage.
This is good news for both the Cardinals and Garcia, who will be given a cortisone shot and some rest before getting back at it. There is currently no timetable for his return.
However, this recent episode brings up the question as to how much the Cardinals can rely on Garcia this year. The team still hopes he will be able to make a significant contribution to this season, but he will not be ready to start come opening day.
Garcia's shoulder injuries have been a concern of mine (and many other Cardinals fans) for the last 3 years. But, when healthy, he has proven that he is one of the top 5 starters on the team.
Here's hoping for a speedy recovery.
This is good news for both the Cardinals and Garcia, who will be given a cortisone shot and some rest before getting back at it. There is currently no timetable for his return.
However, this recent episode brings up the question as to how much the Cardinals can rely on Garcia this year. The team still hopes he will be able to make a significant contribution to this season, but he will not be ready to start come opening day.
Garcia's shoulder injuries have been a concern of mine (and many other Cardinals fans) for the last 3 years. But, when healthy, he has proven that he is one of the top 5 starters on the team.
Here's hoping for a speedy recovery.
Saturday, February 22, 2014
Cardinals send Jaime Garcia back to St.Louis for tests on his shoulder.
Well, at least now we know why the Cardinals wanted Carlos Martinez to start this Spring.
According to Bob Nightengale, the Cardinals have sent lefty Jaime Garcia back to St.Louis for tests on his shoulder after he experienced discomfort.
This is not good news for Garcia or the Cards, as it appears the team's pitching depth will once again be tested this year.
Garcia has dealt with shoulder issues the last 2 years and, as anyone who follows injuries knows, shoulder injuries are the most troublesome for pitchers, with a much lower comeback rate than pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery.
Thus, while its not totally surprising that his shoulder problems seem to be back, its a little surprising considering that the reports were that he had a successful bullpen session just last week.
Assuming the worst (and this is all speculation until the results of the tests are known), it makes a little more sense that the Cardinals were stretching out Martinez this spring. As I noted just a couple days ago, between Garcia's injury and Lance Lynn's 1st half/2nd half splits, there were enough concerns with the rotation to have a fresh arm ready.
However, even if Garcia is lost for the season, it is not a foregone conclusion that Martinez will replace him in the rotation.
Joe Kelly will have something to say about that. He may not have the huge upside and electric stuff that Martinez has, but he has gone 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons.
In addition, we cannot forget about Tyler Lyons. The young lefty made 8 starts in 2013 for the Cards, posting a 2-4 record and 5.56 ERA. However, he only allowed one run in each of his first two starts and had a 7-2 record and 3.32 ERA in AAA Memphis.
Chances are the Cardinals will need all three of them, especially if Garcia misses extended time. Between potential innings limits for Michael Wacha and Martinez, as well as the fact that Kelly only pitched 124 innings in 2013, the Cards will be extra careful with their youngsters, which may lead Mike Matheny to potentially work out some sort of platoon with his young pitchers.
In any case, the Cardinals and their fans will hold their collective breaths until the results of Garcia's MRI are known.
According to Bob Nightengale, the Cardinals have sent lefty Jaime Garcia back to St.Louis for tests on his shoulder after he experienced discomfort.
This is not good news for Garcia or the Cards, as it appears the team's pitching depth will once again be tested this year.
Garcia has dealt with shoulder issues the last 2 years and, as anyone who follows injuries knows, shoulder injuries are the most troublesome for pitchers, with a much lower comeback rate than pitchers who undergo Tommy John surgery.
Thus, while its not totally surprising that his shoulder problems seem to be back, its a little surprising considering that the reports were that he had a successful bullpen session just last week.
Assuming the worst (and this is all speculation until the results of the tests are known), it makes a little more sense that the Cardinals were stretching out Martinez this spring. As I noted just a couple days ago, between Garcia's injury and Lance Lynn's 1st half/2nd half splits, there were enough concerns with the rotation to have a fresh arm ready.
However, even if Garcia is lost for the season, it is not a foregone conclusion that Martinez will replace him in the rotation.
Joe Kelly will have something to say about that. He may not have the huge upside and electric stuff that Martinez has, but he has gone 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons.
In addition, we cannot forget about Tyler Lyons. The young lefty made 8 starts in 2013 for the Cards, posting a 2-4 record and 5.56 ERA. However, he only allowed one run in each of his first two starts and had a 7-2 record and 3.32 ERA in AAA Memphis.
Chances are the Cardinals will need all three of them, especially if Garcia misses extended time. Between potential innings limits for Michael Wacha and Martinez, as well as the fact that Kelly only pitched 124 innings in 2013, the Cards will be extra careful with their youngsters, which may lead Mike Matheny to potentially work out some sort of platoon with his young pitchers.
In any case, the Cardinals and their fans will hold their collective breaths until the results of Garcia's MRI are known.
Thursday, February 20, 2014
Carlos Martinez is battling for Cardinals rotation? Who might he beat out?
The most interesting news out of the Cardinals Spring Training camp so far is that Carlos Martinez will be used as a starter. It seemed almost a foregone conclusion that Martinez would be relegated to the pen. The Cardinals return starters Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller and Lance Lynn this year and Jaime Garcia appears to be fully recovered from 2013 shoulder surgery. If any of those guys should falter, swingman Joe Kelly would step into the fray.
However, with this latest news, it can mean one of two things: (1) The Cardinals are concerned about Garcia's shoulder holding up over a full season or (2) the Cards are trying to light a fire under Lynn to get him to pitch consistently up to his potential.
For Garcia, there has been no setbacks to date and no indications that he is not fully recovered. However, after throwing just 55.1 and 121.2 innings the last two years, there has to be some concern about whether he can last a full season.
The Cards may play it safe and put an innings limit on the young lefty, thereby giving someone like Martinez the opportunity to step in once Garcia reaches that limit. If that's the case, you could very well see Garcia and Martinez split the season as starters, with Garcia starting the first half of the season and Martinez taking over in the second half.
As for Lynn, he has started each of the last two seasons on fire, only to see him implode in the second half.
In 2012, Lynn posted a 9-4 record and 3.28 ERA in the first half and a 9-3 record, but 4.15 ERA in the second half. The Cardinals chalked it up to fatigue and asked Lynn to lose weight in the offseason, which he did.
However, the weight loss didn't work, as the splits got even worse in 2013. Lynn was 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half and just 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA in the second half. There were concerns about Lynn's mental makeup and concentration, which leads one to believe that Lynn will have a very short leash in 2014.
But is that leash so short that Martinez could overtake him this spring, pushing Lynn to the bullpen?
Its possible or perhaps this is just the kind of motivation that Lynn needs to succeed.
In any case, it should be an interesting storyline to follow this Spring.
However, with this latest news, it can mean one of two things: (1) The Cardinals are concerned about Garcia's shoulder holding up over a full season or (2) the Cards are trying to light a fire under Lynn to get him to pitch consistently up to his potential.
For Garcia, there has been no setbacks to date and no indications that he is not fully recovered. However, after throwing just 55.1 and 121.2 innings the last two years, there has to be some concern about whether he can last a full season.
The Cards may play it safe and put an innings limit on the young lefty, thereby giving someone like Martinez the opportunity to step in once Garcia reaches that limit. If that's the case, you could very well see Garcia and Martinez split the season as starters, with Garcia starting the first half of the season and Martinez taking over in the second half.
As for Lynn, he has started each of the last two seasons on fire, only to see him implode in the second half.
In 2012, Lynn posted a 9-4 record and 3.28 ERA in the first half and a 9-3 record, but 4.15 ERA in the second half. The Cardinals chalked it up to fatigue and asked Lynn to lose weight in the offseason, which he did.
However, the weight loss didn't work, as the splits got even worse in 2013. Lynn was 9-3 with a 2.82 ERA in the first half and just 6-7 with a 5.15 ERA in the second half. There were concerns about Lynn's mental makeup and concentration, which leads one to believe that Lynn will have a very short leash in 2014.
But is that leash so short that Martinez could overtake him this spring, pushing Lynn to the bullpen?
Its possible or perhaps this is just the kind of motivation that Lynn needs to succeed.
In any case, it should be an interesting storyline to follow this Spring.
Friday, December 13, 2013
Projecting the Cardinals starting rotation for 2014 and beyond
Each year around this time, I try to take a look at the Cardinals roster and project out the starting rotations and lineup for the next year and a few years into the future. Its mainly an exercise in speculation and highly subjective, but its fun to try to figure out what the team might look like in the future.
Today I'm starting with the rotation. Here is what I project for 2014 and beyond.
2014
With Adam Wainwright locked up through 2018, Jaime Garcia signed through 2015 (with club options for 2016 and 2017) and all the other potential starters still pre-arbitration, the Cardinals could have a logjam of pitchers for the next several years.
There are no shortages of starters in the Cardinals organization. With the likes of Wainwright, Garcia, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, John Gast and a host of prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless pipeline of pitchers.
For 2014, John Mozeliak has already gone on record as saying that Garcia will be in the rotation, if healthy, and he will likely join Wainwright, Wacha and Miller as the top 4 starters. This means that Lynn, Kelly and Martinez will likely battle next spring for the 5th starter spot.
Although I see Lynn eventually winning out, with Kelly returning to his swingman role and Martinez working as a setup man, this is probably Lynn's last chance to prove himself worthy of a starting spot. Lynn will be arbitration eligible after the 2014 season and thus next year will be a make or break year for him.
He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but has been far too inconsistent and seems to let his emotions get the better of him at times.
With that said, here is my predicted 2014 rotation:
Again the usual suspects should be vying for a starting spot in 2015, with a couple exceptions.
I think that Lynn will be traded at some point prior to the season, opening up a spot for someone else. My hope is that Carlos Martinez will be the one to step up and take that spot. He has the stuff to be a front line starter and the Cardinals may use the Wainwright method of developing him by using him in relief first (in 2014) before moving him to the rotation in 2015.
The other starter I think could be gone is Garcia. His shoulder issues are a big concern for me and I think that, if the Cards find a taker, they could trade him or his shoulder will knock him out of the rotation. In either case, the Cardinals have a few options to replace him. If addition, the have a good stock pile of young lefties who could replace him. Gast, Lyons or one of their prospects, Marco Gonzalez or Tim Cooney, could fill the void.
If the above plays out, here is how I see the 2015 rotation:
Even if Garcia is still a part of the Cardinals rotation in 2015, I think he's likely gone after that year, as the Cardinals will probably not pick up his option.
Thus, for 2016, the top 4 from the 2015 rotation should still be in place, leaving the 5th starter spot as a battle between lefties Cooney, Gonzalez, Lyons and Gast.
This time I predict that Gonzalez will win out, due largely to his higher upside than Cooney.
Thus, here is the 2016 rotation:
Once you get past 2016, things are really going to get dicey. 2013 first rounder Rob Kaminsky will likely be major league ready by 2017 or 2018 and young flame thrower Alex Reyes could also be ready by that time, leaving the Cardinals with even more arms to choose from.
Obviously, not every one of these prospects will pan out and some pitchers could be traded at some point to replace Jhonny Peralta at short when the Cardinals are forced to move him to third or the outfield. So, there are a lot of variables at play here.
With that said, I think the front 4 will remain a staple of the Cardinals rotation for as long as the Cards control their rights (Wainwright and Miller are signed or controlled through 2018 and Wacha and Martinez through 2019) and the team can just ride the hot hand in the 5th starter spot.
In any case, no matter how you look at it, the Cardinals pitching is stacked and should be for years to come.
Today I'm starting with the rotation. Here is what I project for 2014 and beyond.
2014
With Adam Wainwright locked up through 2018, Jaime Garcia signed through 2015 (with club options for 2016 and 2017) and all the other potential starters still pre-arbitration, the Cardinals could have a logjam of pitchers for the next several years.
There are no shortages of starters in the Cardinals organization. With the likes of Wainwright, Garcia, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly, Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, John Gast and a host of prospects waiting in the wings, the Cardinals have a seemingly endless pipeline of pitchers.
For 2014, John Mozeliak has already gone on record as saying that Garcia will be in the rotation, if healthy, and he will likely join Wainwright, Wacha and Miller as the top 4 starters. This means that Lynn, Kelly and Martinez will likely battle next spring for the 5th starter spot.
Although I see Lynn eventually winning out, with Kelly returning to his swingman role and Martinez working as a setup man, this is probably Lynn's last chance to prove himself worthy of a starting spot. Lynn will be arbitration eligible after the 2014 season and thus next year will be a make or break year for him.
He has shown flashes of brilliance in the past, but has been far too inconsistent and seems to let his emotions get the better of him at times.
With that said, here is my predicted 2014 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Jaime Garcia
- Michael Wacha
- Lance Lynn
Again the usual suspects should be vying for a starting spot in 2015, with a couple exceptions.
I think that Lynn will be traded at some point prior to the season, opening up a spot for someone else. My hope is that Carlos Martinez will be the one to step up and take that spot. He has the stuff to be a front line starter and the Cardinals may use the Wainwright method of developing him by using him in relief first (in 2014) before moving him to the rotation in 2015.
The other starter I think could be gone is Garcia. His shoulder issues are a big concern for me and I think that, if the Cards find a taker, they could trade him or his shoulder will knock him out of the rotation. In either case, the Cardinals have a few options to replace him. If addition, the have a good stock pile of young lefties who could replace him. Gast, Lyons or one of their prospects, Marco Gonzalez or Tim Cooney, could fill the void.
If the above plays out, here is how I see the 2015 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- Carlos Martinez
- Tim Cooney
Even if Garcia is still a part of the Cardinals rotation in 2015, I think he's likely gone after that year, as the Cardinals will probably not pick up his option.
Thus, for 2016, the top 4 from the 2015 rotation should still be in place, leaving the 5th starter spot as a battle between lefties Cooney, Gonzalez, Lyons and Gast.
This time I predict that Gonzalez will win out, due largely to his higher upside than Cooney.
Thus, here is the 2016 rotation:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- Carlos Martinez
- Marco Gonzalez
Once you get past 2016, things are really going to get dicey. 2013 first rounder Rob Kaminsky will likely be major league ready by 2017 or 2018 and young flame thrower Alex Reyes could also be ready by that time, leaving the Cardinals with even more arms to choose from.
Obviously, not every one of these prospects will pan out and some pitchers could be traded at some point to replace Jhonny Peralta at short when the Cardinals are forced to move him to third or the outfield. So, there are a lot of variables at play here.
With that said, I think the front 4 will remain a staple of the Cardinals rotation for as long as the Cards control their rights (Wainwright and Miller are signed or controlled through 2018 and Wacha and Martinez through 2019) and the team can just ride the hot hand in the 5th starter spot.
In any case, no matter how you look at it, the Cardinals pitching is stacked and should be for years to come.
Thursday, November 7, 2013
UCB Roundtable Day 3: The Cardinals 2014 starting rotation
For the United Cardinals Bloggers November project, we are conducting a roundtable discussion taking a look at the 2013 season and what the 2014 season may bring. To follow the Roundtable, be sure check out the United Cardinals Bloggers' website.
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
As Mark said, this leaves Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn out. Do I think
they are able to bring the return that the Cardinals want at shortstop?
No. Thus, given the risk of injuries, especially with Garcia (as most of
you will soon find out, I am not a big fan
of his), I think you hang on to Kelly and Lynn for at least the first
part of the season. Gast, who I do not think will be healthy yet, will
be in Memphis, and Lyons will likely be in the 'pen or shipped out.
Let’s start off with the easy
ones: John Gast had shoulder surgery near the end of July. The initial
reports were unclear as to the timetable for him to get back, but espn.com
reported that it would be 8 to 12 months. If that is the case, then the
earliest he would be able to throw again is right around opening day,
so I expect him to be in Memphis getting stronger and being able to step
in during the middle/late season if injury prompts a need for him.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
So many arms! So few starting slots! Obviously Adam Wainwright,
Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are in the rotation, and Jaime Garcia
too. Trevor Rosenthal, as John Mozeliak said the other day, is going to
be in the bullpen and Seth Maness was too valuable this season with his
double-play-inducing magic out of the bullpen to give that up.
Despite all that he did this season, I just don't
see Joe Kelly being guaranteed a spot and can see another spring
training competition happening -- probably with the remaining pitchers
you listed here, in John Gast, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. I really
liked Martinez in that eighth inning role out of the bullpen, though,
and he succeeded there but I can see him more as a starter. Gast seems
headed to Memphis for me. Lyons is intriguing -- perhaps in the bullpen
to begin with, but available as a starter as needed too or if someone
else falters (which of course won't happen, right?)
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
Strongest
rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Carlos
Martinez, Jaime Garcia. Like Wacha, Martinez is a special talent and
needs to start.
Trade material: Lance Lynn or Joe Kelly for a starting shortstop.
Bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, closer; Lynn or Kelly, 8th inning; Seth Maness, 7th inning; Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate as left-handed specialists.
Ready in Memphis: Tyler Lyons and John Gast are on-call to replace an injured or faltering starter.
Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants
I couldn’t agree more. So many arms, not enough spots!
Christine Coleman (follow-up)
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
Joe Schwarz - stlcupofjoe’s Sports Page
In my opinion, you give every single pitcher that wants to start a
chance to do so in Spring Training, and this includes Trevor Rosenthal
and Kevin Siegrist. Will both likely end
up in the bullpen? Yep, but down the road when it comes time to re-sign
them, the Cardinals will have the leverage to say that they at least
gave them a shot to be a starting pitcher. Otherwise, their agents could
use that against the Cardinals saying they
"misused" their client or "didn't allow them to reach their full
potential."
However, this is my starting rotation at this time: Adam
Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos
Martinez. I honestly believe Martinez has the best "stuff" of that group
and has the potential to become
great. Will he succeed in the role as a starting pitcher? That is
yet to be seen, but we will never know until he is given that shot. The
bullpen will always be a solid fallback option for Baby Pedro.
Ben Chambers - The View From Here
This is a great problem to have. The Cardinals have too many
talented starting pitchers and they have to figure out who it’s going to
be in the rotation!
Mo
and Matheny have already said that Rosenthal is coming back as the
closer. This is probably the best move for the team. Motte will be back
next year, but there are too many questions that need to be answered
first: Will he be able to pitch on back-to-back days? Will his stamina
hold all season? Will he have a semi-struggling year like Wainwright did
coming back from Tommy John? Will he still be able to hit 100 on the
mound? There are just too many unknowns at this point. I hope that the
Cardinals give him a shot in 2015 (although I am not sure how much of a
shot he’ll have then, either), but for 2014 he’s needed in the 9th
inning.
So, that leaves: Wainwright, Miller,
Garcia, Lynn, Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, Lyons, and Maness. I think Maness
continues in the bullpen. It’s always nice to have a guy out there who
you can trust to come in the game with runners on in late innings. Even
if he doesn’t get all the double plays next year, every bullpen needs at
least one guy like that. Lynn has been up-and-down both of the last two
years, and I really hope that they put him in the bullpen. He has the
ability to be great, and he’s shown that, but he also has the ability to
lose quite a few in a row, and he’s shown that, too.
Wainwright,
Wacha, and Garcis are the only three that are locks for the rotation.
Wainwright because he is the ace, Wacha because he is so talented, and
he has ice running through his veins. Garcia because he has been a
starter the entire time he’s been with the Cardinals and being a lefty,
it does keep the rotation from being strictly right-handed.
I
expect Lyons to also be in Memphis. He was great his first few starts,
but then he just went downhill. I don’t know why, but maybe the
Cardinals do. Either way, he probably needs a little time to get himself
back on track a little, and Memphis will provide him that opportunity.
Who
gets the last two spots? I think it’s Miller and Martinez. I would
personally like it to be Miller and Kelly. I think Kelly has good stuff,
and he showed it in 2013. He was one of the best pitchers in the second
half last year. Lowest ERAs for the second half of 2013 in the NL:
Kershaw at 1.59, Grienke at 1.85, and Kelly at 1.91. I really like him,
and I think he can be a 15-20 game winner if the Cardinals give him a
chance. Martinez might get the nod over him, but I would be personally
upset if it happens. Kelly currently is the better pitcher. If Martinez
gets the spot, Kelly will go back to being the long man out of the
bullpen. If Kelly gets the spot, I expect Martinez to be in Memphis.
No
matter who actually gets into the rotation, I am excited to see those
arms. The depth that the Cardinals have in starting pitching is unlike
any other team has. I will end with this stipulation: I could see one or
two of those guys being traded to get a SS, and that would change this
quickly, but as of right now, that’s what I think will happen.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
My rotation would be Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Garcia as
well. The potential for those five is out of the planet. Joe Kelly is
intriguing, but I think he is near his peak value, but that doesn't mean
I want to trade him. I think he is great in the clubhouse and would be a
great fit in the bullpen.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
What to do with the others.....
Lynn: I
am going to disagree with you all that Lance Lynn does not have that
much trade value. I think people in St. Louis value him a little lower
than those in other MLB cities. If you look at his numbers and take out
the emotion, he has had a couple of solid seasons. I am not saying that
Lynn alone would net Profar or even Starlin Castro, but he could be a
very valuable trade chip. How many other teams would want a perennial 15
game winner?
Rosenthal: Don't let
Mozeliak fool you, Rosenthal will end up the 8th inning guy on one
condition, if Jason Motte is healthy. I know that Mo said he will begin
spring as the closer, but what else should he say? Motte is not
guaranteed to be healthy by then, but i don't think Jason loses his
closing spot due to injury. Wally Pipp may disagree with me.
Maness: As
much as I want Maness to start, the role he played this year was best
for the team, plus there isn't a starting spot for him in St. Louis. He
is one that could be a very solid starter somewhere else, but i am fine
with him as the DP man.
Lyons and Gast: Both begin the season in Memphis with opportunities to fill in at the MLB level.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
I'd
agree pretty much entirely with what John wrote, but for his comments
on Rosenthal. In my mind, Rosie will be the closer, because by time you
can be comfortable with Motte and his recovery, Rosenthal will already
be entrenched. Given the myriad of issues surrounding a hard-throwing
reliever coming off surgery, including command issues, I can't imagine
that Motte would be anything more than an eighth-inning guy. Should
Rosenthal stumble and Motte look good, they might flip, but I'd be
shocked if Rosenthal doesn't get the first save chance of the year.
That's
a bit off topic, but being that I can't disagree with a rotation of
Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia and Martinez, what else am I going to
say?
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
Being late to the party, I will basically break things down as best as I can without being redundant.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
Maness, Gast, Lyons and Rosenthal aren't in the convo, for various reasons.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
<Strauss'd> intrigue... </Strauss'd>
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
Barring
further injury, my starting rotation out of the listed candidates has
to Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez unless Lance Lynn
finds a way to be not be traded.
Lynn is premium trade material. He has a fine
resume that includes over 30 wins in two seasons and good bullpen work.
He is young and hungry and may need a change of scenery to lower his
pouting potential.
Jaime is making 7 million this year so he needs to
be in the rotation and he is a lefty who can be great when he is on.
Let's hope his feelings are in check.
Joe
Kelly is Mr. Stretch. He can start, relieve, and close and will find
himself in that long arm bullpen spot to begin the season as insurance
in case someone gets hurt. Few can do what he does effectively. Be
solid out of the bullpen and win a lot of starts. His mindset is key
and helps him adjust. I am surprised teams don't target him in a trade
because of his versatility.
Lyons and Gast are Memphis starters until injuries
happen. They performed well in 2013 but won't climb over guys like
Martinez and Kelly for starts, at least not again. These guys are also
trade depth because they proved they can come up to big leagues and
instantly win games. Look for them to be add on's to big deals Mozelaik
keeps up his sleeve.
Trevor Rosenthal is a setup-closer with this team
for a long time. He has the makeup, ability and finish to go into the
ninth and let it rip. We saw it for good when he saved 3 games in the
final week of the season and basically made the Pirates, Dodgers and Red
Sox look stupid for a month. He has a propane heater and a decent
changeup and if he was going to try his hand at starting again, he would
have to redefine that third pitch. I get why he wants to start but at
this point it's futile. Jason Motte will be back but won't be ready to
even compete for the closer role until July. Motte had the surgery in
May of 2013 which means he may not touch a baseball diamond during a
real game until late April/early May. He will find his control and
slowly develop back into that stopper we knew from 2011 and 2012. He
will set up until the Cards really deem it necessary to switch him and
Rosenthal. If Trevor is throwing gas and closing everything, it won't
happen unless Motte is electric. I do think Motte gets back to the
closer role sometime, but too late for Rosenthal to switch back to
starting. Motte makes 6 million this year but needs to get healthy.
Rosenthal may say he would like to start but watching him close in
October I see a man empowered and having a lot of fun. Let's not
believe he is wanting to truly move just yet ladies and gents.
There I go too. Wow. Just like Shoptaw. HA! Must be a Daniel thing.
Waino, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez for me in early April.
Chris Mallonee - Bird On The Bat 82
If we are answering "who we would want" instead of "who do we think it
will be", then I will go with Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller, Lynn as
the Opening Day Starters.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
I also don't want to delve too deep into what hasn't happened yet,
such as trades and situations like that. Basically, what it comes down
to is Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez in a
four-corners match, albeit one that is not that difficult to sort out.
Martinez has the best arm of the group (and maybe
the entire team). With the said, I'd like to see him in a year like
Rosenthal, at the end of the pen in some capacity. Motte's status is
uncertain and both Axford and Mujica are gone. Bottomline, the back end
of the bullpen is questionable, and bringing Martinez along there would
be a perfect way for him to gain some Big League experience and expand
his repertoire.
Garcia is purely a starter, and a much needed
left-handed one at that, so he's in there too from the moment he's
ready. All indications say that's spring training as of now, so that
brings the rotation to a four-man group.
For the final spot, I opt with Lance Lynn. He's not
always the popular choice, and surely isn't the most consistent of the
group, however, there are a lot of things that work in his favor. He's
still young, is steadily racking up experienced innings and still has a
great skills package that can develop. He would be as good of a
fourth/fifth starter that any team in the NL would have on their side.
So, if the Cardinals can break camp (for the first time since 2010) with a completely healthy rotation, I'd like to see a Wainwright, Miller, Garcia, Wacha, Lynn (in that order) mix take to the mound.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
Who I would want: Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia, Martinez
Who I think it will be: Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Martinez, Kelly
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I've given this way more thought than I should,
and the trio at the back-end keeps changing by the hour. Most of us
know it really doesn't matter who starts the season in the rotation,
however, the changing of the guard could be 2014.
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
The Cardinals have an abundance of riches with a stockpile of young arms to choose from for their starting rotation. The only locks I see for the 2014 rotation are Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha.
Jaime Garcia should grab the 4th slot, but only if he proves to be healthy, which, when dealing with shoulder injuries, particularly labrum tears, is never a sure thing.
Lance Lynn will probably end up getting traded as part of a package for a shortstop, as he is in desperate need of a change in scenery.
That leaves Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez to battle it out for the 5th spot. Kelly will probably be wondering what he has to do to prove he is a major league starter, especially after going 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons. However, just like Shelby Miller did this spring, I see Martinez beating Kelly out for the last spot, leaving Kelly to return to his long relief role.
John Gast and Tyler Lyons will return to Memphis to provide depth and Seth Maness will return to the bullpen.
Trevor Rosenthal will start the season as the Cardinals closer and never look back, even when Jason Motte returns. After his dominant display at the end of the season and in the postseason, I just don't see him relinquishing the closer role.
Overall, its a good problem to have and one that will take the Cardinals some time to sort out both during the offseason and next spring.
Thursday, August 1, 2013
Why did the Cardinals wait so long to use Joe Kelly in the rotation?
What took you so long?
That is the question many Cardinals fans are probably asking John Mozeliak and Mike Matheny after Joe Kelly turned in another strong performance tonight, leading the Cards to victory over the Pirates and ending the team's 7-game skid.
Kelly pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits and striking out 4. Although he also walked 4 hitters, he kept the ball on the ground, inducing 7 groundouts to just 3 flyouts, including one double-play. Oh, and he also went 2 for 3 at the plate, scoring a run.
After losing the 5th starter battle to Shelby Miller in the spring, the Cardinals decided to use Kelly in a long relief role instead of letting him start in the minors to keep him stretched out. The result was that he was used very little--just 18.2 innings through May, and was ineffective when he was used.
Around that time, with both Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook on the D.L., the Cardinals should have sent Kelly down to AAA to stretch him out and get him back on track. Instead, the team used a steam of 3 different rookies (John Gast, Tyler Lyons and Michael Wacha) to fill in, before finally turning to Kelly when they were in a pinch.
After making an emergency start on June 5th, in which he lasted 5.2 innings, despite not being stretched out, while giving up only 2 runs (1 earned), the Cardinals finally must have realized that Kelly was a capable starter, because, shortly after they decided to demote Wacha back to AAA to protect his arm, Kelly was named as the 5th starter (almost by default).
So far, Kelly has sparkled in the starting role. He is 2-1 as a starter, with a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts. He has allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of those starts, with his only clunker a 6 inning, 4 run effort against the Marlins.
In addition, its not as if Kelly was terrible as a starter last year. He compiled a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts. Put it all together and Kelly has a 6-7 record with a 3.28 ERA in 21 starts in the big leagues. Not too bad for the former college closer.
So, why did the Cardinals wait so long to use Kelly in the rotation? We may never find out the true answer to that question. But I'm glad he's there now and hopefully he'll continue to convince the team that he should stay there.
That is the question many Cardinals fans are probably asking John Mozeliak and Mike Matheny after Joe Kelly turned in another strong performance tonight, leading the Cards to victory over the Pirates and ending the team's 7-game skid.
Kelly pitched 6 scoreless innings, giving up just 3 hits and striking out 4. Although he also walked 4 hitters, he kept the ball on the ground, inducing 7 groundouts to just 3 flyouts, including one double-play. Oh, and he also went 2 for 3 at the plate, scoring a run.
After losing the 5th starter battle to Shelby Miller in the spring, the Cardinals decided to use Kelly in a long relief role instead of letting him start in the minors to keep him stretched out. The result was that he was used very little--just 18.2 innings through May, and was ineffective when he was used.
Around that time, with both Jaime Garcia and Jake Westbrook on the D.L., the Cardinals should have sent Kelly down to AAA to stretch him out and get him back on track. Instead, the team used a steam of 3 different rookies (John Gast, Tyler Lyons and Michael Wacha) to fill in, before finally turning to Kelly when they were in a pinch.
After making an emergency start on June 5th, in which he lasted 5.2 innings, despite not being stretched out, while giving up only 2 runs (1 earned), the Cardinals finally must have realized that Kelly was a capable starter, because, shortly after they decided to demote Wacha back to AAA to protect his arm, Kelly was named as the 5th starter (almost by default).
So far, Kelly has sparkled in the starting role. He is 2-1 as a starter, with a 1.84 ERA in 5 starts. He has allowed 2 or less runs in 4 of those starts, with his only clunker a 6 inning, 4 run effort against the Marlins.
In addition, its not as if Kelly was terrible as a starter last year. He compiled a 3.74 ERA in 16 starts. Put it all together and Kelly has a 6-7 record with a 3.28 ERA in 21 starts in the big leagues. Not too bad for the former college closer.
So, why did the Cardinals wait so long to use Kelly in the rotation? We may never find out the true answer to that question. But I'm glad he's there now and hopefully he'll continue to convince the team that he should stay there.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Is Trevor Rosenthal now pigeonholed as a reliever?
Bernie Miklasz had an interesting article today discussing the possibility of the Cardinals trading for Cliff Lee (something that I already discussed here). While an interesting analysis and one that reached the same conclusion as I did (we don't need Lee), what really caught my eye was his discussion of the 2014 starting pitching logjam.
Here's what Bernie had to say about the Cardinals glut of starting pitching for 2014:
Is it already a forgone conclusion that Rosenthal will remain a reliever for 2014 and beyond?
Heading into this spring, there was suppose to be a 3-man battle for the 5th starter spot between Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal was only given a token chance, as he was only given one start before he was moved to the bullpen.
Next spring, with Jake Westbrook likely becoming a free agent and Jaime Garcia's availability at the start of the season up in the air, there will likely be two spots open. Will Rosenthal even be part of that battle?
It seems unlikely, as the Cardinals should have Michael Wacha, John Gast, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly, Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons all battling for those two spots, making the need to use Rosenthal as a starter uneccessary.
Normally I'm opposed to relegating a top arm to the bullpen when he can be much more valuable as a starting pitcher. However, in this case, it probably makes the most sense. Edward Mujica will likely be gone via free agency and with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will likely need Rosenthal to be the 9th inning guy.
It just would have been nice if he had been given a chance as a starter first, because now we'll never know what we might be missing.
Here's what Bernie had to say about the Cardinals glut of starting pitching for 2014:
Looking beyond 2013, Lee could slide into the Westbrook slot for 2014 because Westbrook becomes a free agent after this year. But with Lee in the mix, that would still leave the Cardinals with Wainwright, Lee, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, Kelly. Let's not leave Seth Maness off the list; the Cardinals like him a lot. And there’s also Jaime Garcia, who should rehab his rotator cuff in time to pitch at some point in 2014. You can throw Lyons into the mix, too. And other potential starters will likely emerge from the system. We’ve already mentioned at least nine or 10 starting-pitcher entries for 2014 and beyond.Yes, he mentioned 9 or 10 starting pitchers, but nowhere does he mention Trevor Rosenthal.
Is it already a forgone conclusion that Rosenthal will remain a reliever for 2014 and beyond?
Heading into this spring, there was suppose to be a 3-man battle for the 5th starter spot between Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal was only given a token chance, as he was only given one start before he was moved to the bullpen.
Next spring, with Jake Westbrook likely becoming a free agent and Jaime Garcia's availability at the start of the season up in the air, there will likely be two spots open. Will Rosenthal even be part of that battle?
It seems unlikely, as the Cardinals should have Michael Wacha, John Gast, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly, Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons all battling for those two spots, making the need to use Rosenthal as a starter uneccessary.
Normally I'm opposed to relegating a top arm to the bullpen when he can be much more valuable as a starting pitcher. However, in this case, it probably makes the most sense. Edward Mujica will likely be gone via free agency and with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will likely need Rosenthal to be the 9th inning guy.
It just would have been nice if he had been given a chance as a starter first, because now we'll never know what we might be missing.
Tuesday, June 4, 2013
What does the Cardinals starting pitching depth chart look like now?
The Cardinals pitching staff has seen many changes during the first two months, primarily due to injuries. The starting pitching depth that was once a strength of this team has taken the biggest hit, with 4 pitchers currently on the DL.
Here's a look at the Cardinals depth chart for their starting pitching prior to spring training:
After losing their 5th starter battle to Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal have been relegated to the bullpen and it appears that they are there to stay, at least for this season. With the emergence of Wacha and John Gast, along with relatively unknown Tyler Lyons, I would say the depth chart now looks more like this:
Gast's emergence helped the Cardinals to delay the callup of Wacha, but when Gast got injured, it finally forced the Cards hand. The question that looms is who will stay in the rotation once Westbrook, Gast and possibly even Carpenter return from the DL. But that's a topic for another day.
Here's a look at the Cardinals depth chart for their starting pitching prior to spring training:
- Adam Wainwright
- Chris Carpenter
- Jaime Garcia
- Jake Westbrook
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
- Joe Kelly
- Trevor Rosenthal
- Carlos Martinez
- Michael Wacha
After losing their 5th starter battle to Miller, Kelly and Rosenthal have been relegated to the bullpen and it appears that they are there to stay, at least for this season. With the emergence of Wacha and John Gast, along with relatively unknown Tyler Lyons, I would say the depth chart now looks more like this:
- Adam Wainwright
- Chris Carpenter (DL - could return in July?)
- Jake Westbrook (DL - expected back in 1-2 weeks)
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
- Michael Wacha
- John Gast (DL - out 'til end of June?)
- Tyler Lyons
- Carlos Martinez
- Jaime Garcia (DL - out for season)
Gast's emergence helped the Cardinals to delay the callup of Wacha, but when Gast got injured, it finally forced the Cards hand. The question that looms is who will stay in the rotation once Westbrook, Gast and possibly even Carpenter return from the DL. But that's a topic for another day.
Monday, May 27, 2013
Injuries have Cardinals shifting focus from bullpen to rotation
After spending over a month trying to sort out their bullpen, the Cardinals now face new problems with a starting rotation that has been beset by injuries.
The bullpen issues stemmed from an season-ending injury to closer Jason Motte, which caused bullpen roles to shift--a shift that some, like Mitchell Boggs, were not ready for. The Cardinals solved their problems by shifting Edward Mujica to closer and calling up Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness to shore up the back end of the pen.
Now, a rash of injuries to the Cardinals rotation has the Cardinals scrambling again.
First, Jake Westbrook went on the DL with an elbow injury. Then Jaime Garcia was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. As if that wasn't enough, Westbrook's replacement, John Gast, was removed from his last start with shoulder tightness.
Thus, the Cardinals are making changes on the fly again.
First, Michael Wacha, the Cardinals best pitching prospect still in the minors, was pulled from his start Monday and is probably option #1 to replace Gast in the rotation. Nothing has been announced yet and, as Bernie Miklasz points out, there are still reasons why the Cardinals wouldn't call on Wacha, but it appears that he is likely replacement for Gast.
In addition, the Cardinals have sent Carlos Martinez down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter again. With all the injuries to starting pitching, the Cardinals now need Martinez as a starter more than they do as a (little used) reliever. While it probably won't take him long to ramp up, Martinez still has work to do on his secondary pitches before he can be considered for a starting role.
Finally, Victor Marte was recalled to fill Martinez' role in the pen. Marte had a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP last year for the Cardinals, but considering that Martinez only pitched 9.1 innings in the 21 days he was up with the club, its unlikely that Marte will be used in high leverage situations.
So the Cards are shuffling the deck again and the fans are hoping that the magic continues.
The bullpen issues stemmed from an season-ending injury to closer Jason Motte, which caused bullpen roles to shift--a shift that some, like Mitchell Boggs, were not ready for. The Cardinals solved their problems by shifting Edward Mujica to closer and calling up Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness to shore up the back end of the pen.
Now, a rash of injuries to the Cardinals rotation has the Cardinals scrambling again.
First, Jake Westbrook went on the DL with an elbow injury. Then Jaime Garcia was lost for the season with a shoulder injury. As if that wasn't enough, Westbrook's replacement, John Gast, was removed from his last start with shoulder tightness.
Thus, the Cardinals are making changes on the fly again.
First, Michael Wacha, the Cardinals best pitching prospect still in the minors, was pulled from his start Monday and is probably option #1 to replace Gast in the rotation. Nothing has been announced yet and, as Bernie Miklasz points out, there are still reasons why the Cardinals wouldn't call on Wacha, but it appears that he is likely replacement for Gast.
In addition, the Cardinals have sent Carlos Martinez down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter again. With all the injuries to starting pitching, the Cardinals now need Martinez as a starter more than they do as a (little used) reliever. While it probably won't take him long to ramp up, Martinez still has work to do on his secondary pitches before he can be considered for a starting role.
Finally, Victor Marte was recalled to fill Martinez' role in the pen. Marte had a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP last year for the Cardinals, but considering that Martinez only pitched 9.1 innings in the 21 days he was up with the club, its unlikely that Marte will be used in high leverage situations.
So the Cards are shuffling the deck again and the fans are hoping that the magic continues.
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