The St. Louis Cardinals offense suffered a big loss when Jason Heyward took less money to sign with the rival Cubs. Given that the Cards finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, Heyward and his 3.8 oWAR (offensive Wins Against Replacement) will be missed.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
Showing posts with label 2016 lineup. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2016 lineup. Show all posts
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Sunday, August 24, 2014
How do the Cardinals' July trades affect their roster going forward?
The Cardinals current and future roster changed dramatically in July when John Mozeliak jettisoned Allen Craig, Joe Kelly and minor leaguer James Ramsey in exchange for pitchers Justin Masterson and John Lackey, along with minor leaguer pitcher Corey Littrell.
Kelly would have been under team control through the 2018 season and Craig was signed to a reasonable contract through the 2017 season, with a $13 million option for 2018.
In exchange, the Cardinals got Masterson, who is a free agent after this season, and Lackey, who has an incredibly low $500K option for 2015.
The move also cleared room for top prospect Oscar Taveras to play everyday as the starting right fielder.
Does it make the team better in the long run? That's hard to say, but at least one writer, Bob Nightengale thinks that the Cardinals will regret the Lackey trade.
However, it does change the Cardinals projected lineup and starting pitching for 2015 and beyond, here's a quick look at both:
Lineup
With Taveras replacing Craig, the lineup should be pretty much set through the 2016 season, after which, both Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are set to become free agents.
Back in December, I predicted that James Ramsey was the heir apparent to the center field job, eventually replacing Bourjos after the 2016 season (I predicted Jay would be traded this year).
The Cards other top outfield prospects, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are both projected as corner outfielders, leaving the team without an obvious center fielder of the future.
Tommy Pham is probably the Cardinals best defensive center field prospect, but has a career .253 average in the minors. He has hit well this year, with a .332 average, albeit in the hitter-friendly PCL.
In any case, the Cards could always extend the contracts of Jay or Bourjos, if needed.
Starting Rotation
Here's where things get a little more interesting. The Cardinals obviously needed starting pitching this year to make up for the losses of Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha. Its unlikely that Garcia will pitch for the Cards again, while Wacha hopes to return sometime in September and should be healthy going forward.
With Lacky signed through 2015 and Masterson a free agent after the season, here's what the 2015 rotation should look like:
For 2016, Lackey will roll off the books, with Martinez and Gonzales battling for the 5th spot. Giving us the following rotation:
Overall, I think the Ramsey loss could create a hole in center in the future, while the Cardinals overall pitching depth doesn't seem as strong as the past few years. But, if the team can keep drafting and developing players like they have in the past, these issues will resolve themselves.
Kelly would have been under team control through the 2018 season and Craig was signed to a reasonable contract through the 2017 season, with a $13 million option for 2018.
In exchange, the Cardinals got Masterson, who is a free agent after this season, and Lackey, who has an incredibly low $500K option for 2015.
The move also cleared room for top prospect Oscar Taveras to play everyday as the starting right fielder.
Does it make the team better in the long run? That's hard to say, but at least one writer, Bob Nightengale thinks that the Cardinals will regret the Lackey trade.
However, it does change the Cardinals projected lineup and starting pitching for 2015 and beyond, here's a quick look at both:
Lineup
With Taveras replacing Craig, the lineup should be pretty much set through the 2016 season, after which, both Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are set to become free agents.
Back in December, I predicted that James Ramsey was the heir apparent to the center field job, eventually replacing Bourjos after the 2016 season (I predicted Jay would be traded this year).
The Cards other top outfield prospects, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are both projected as corner outfielders, leaving the team without an obvious center fielder of the future.
Tommy Pham is probably the Cardinals best defensive center field prospect, but has a career .253 average in the minors. He has hit well this year, with a .332 average, albeit in the hitter-friendly PCL.
In any case, the Cards could always extend the contracts of Jay or Bourjos, if needed.
Starting Rotation
Here's where things get a little more interesting. The Cardinals obviously needed starting pitching this year to make up for the losses of Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha. Its unlikely that Garcia will pitch for the Cards again, while Wacha hopes to return sometime in September and should be healthy going forward.
With Lacky signed through 2015 and Masterson a free agent after the season, here's what the 2015 rotation should look like:
- Adam Wainwright
- Michael Wacha
- John Lackey
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
For 2016, Lackey will roll off the books, with Martinez and Gonzales battling for the 5th spot. Giving us the following rotation:
- Wainwright
- Wacha
- Lynn
- Miller
- Martinez/Gonzales
- Wainwright
- Wacha
- Miller
- Martinez
- Gonzales
Overall, I think the Ramsey loss could create a hole in center in the future, while the Cardinals overall pitching depth doesn't seem as strong as the past few years. But, if the team can keep drafting and developing players like they have in the past, these issues will resolve themselves.
Saturday, December 28, 2013
Projecting the Cardinals future lineups
According to GM John Mozeliak, the Cardinals are likely finished with their offseason moves, meaning that, besides adding some minor league depth, the Cards roster is pretty much set.
Thus, as I did with the starting rotation a little while ago, its time to look at the projected Cardinals lineups not only for 2014 but for future years as well.
In case you missed it, as I had just started up this blog at the time, I did a similar exercise last year, which can be found HERE.
Its always interesting to see how my projections look a year after they are made. The main restriction I put on myself is to assume that all openings will be filled in-house (i.e. no free agents or trades), thereby relying only on the Cardinals farm system to fill holes, which, as we have seen this offseason, is not always the case.
Thus, last year, I showed 2013 free agents Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran being replaced by Pete Kozma and Oscar Taveras in 2014 and then 2015 free agent David Freese being replaced by Kolten Wong with Matt Carpenter moving over to third.
However, this year, with the likely starters all locked up through at least the 2016 season, taking the above approach would be pretty boring, thus, I decided to shake things up a bit by assuming some possible trades and free agent signings.
In any case, here's how I see things shaking out over the next few years:
2014
As I alluded to before, the 2014 lineup is set, its just a matter of figuring out the batting order. I think Mike Matheny will make new addition Peter Bourjos the leadoff hitter, followed by Matt Carpenter. However, I'm not entirely sold on Bourjos as a leadoff man, given his career .306 OBP and I can see Carpenter returning to the leadoff spot with Jhonny Peralta hitting second.
From there, Matt Holliday will likely stay in his familiar 3rd spot with Allen Craig hitting 4th. Then Yadier Molina and Matt Adams following, with perhaps Adams moving down further against some lefties. That leaves Bourjos and Kolten Wong bringing up the rear.
Thus, here is my projected 2014 lineup:
At some point in the 2014 season or before the 2015 season begins, the Cardinals are going to have to make a big decision. Oscar Taveras will likely be ready to assume a full-time outfield role with the team and the Cards already have too many outfielders.
Jon Jay will likely have already been traded by the July 2014 trade deadline, but that still leaves the Cardinals with Holliday, Craig, Bourjos, Adams and Taveras to fill 4 spots (including first) and that's not even considering the Cards other top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty. I could see the team possibly trading Holliday, who will be 35 at this time, to free up some salary and to replenish their farm system.
Holliday is owed $17 million a year through 2016, with an $17 million option for 2017 that carries a $1 million buyout. Thus, trading him at this time would save the team $35 million. Allen Craig is another trade possibility, but he's younger and under a more reasonable contract, thereby making Holliday the more appealing option.
Thus, here is how I see the 2015 lineup panning out:
Again, there would be no free agents to worry about at this time, so it comes down to whether the Cardinals feel a trade or free agent signing make sense.
My main concern around this time would be Peralta's defense at short. He will turn 34 during the 2016 season and will likely have lost a step or two on defense. Thus, it might make sense for the Cards to pursue a free agent shortstop.
Yunel Escobar will be a free agent after the 2015 season and could be a good fit for the Cardinals. While he is an average hitter, he has proven to be an above average fielder in his career and would give the team's defense a boost.
Of course, if the team signs Escobar, that leaves Peralta without a position. He could become trade bait or a super utility player, but in either case he will be out of the starting lineup.
Also, by this time, I would think that Wong will have established himself as a good major league hitter and capable leadoff man, thereby allowing Carpenter to bat second, thus giving us the following lineup:
Finally, a free agent! After the 2016 season, Peter Bourjos will likely leave via free agency. Waiting in the wings could be James Ramsey, who will have likely served a long apprenticeship, beginning in 2015 as a 4th outfielder.
Other than that, it will be more of the status quo for the team, giving us the following lineup:
However, the team is certainly set up for long-term success and, if they continue to develop players as they have recently, that success will continue.
Thus, as I did with the starting rotation a little while ago, its time to look at the projected Cardinals lineups not only for 2014 but for future years as well.
In case you missed it, as I had just started up this blog at the time, I did a similar exercise last year, which can be found HERE.
Its always interesting to see how my projections look a year after they are made. The main restriction I put on myself is to assume that all openings will be filled in-house (i.e. no free agents or trades), thereby relying only on the Cardinals farm system to fill holes, which, as we have seen this offseason, is not always the case.
Thus, last year, I showed 2013 free agents Rafael Furcal and Carlos Beltran being replaced by Pete Kozma and Oscar Taveras in 2014 and then 2015 free agent David Freese being replaced by Kolten Wong with Matt Carpenter moving over to third.
However, this year, with the likely starters all locked up through at least the 2016 season, taking the above approach would be pretty boring, thus, I decided to shake things up a bit by assuming some possible trades and free agent signings.
In any case, here's how I see things shaking out over the next few years:
2014
As I alluded to before, the 2014 lineup is set, its just a matter of figuring out the batting order. I think Mike Matheny will make new addition Peter Bourjos the leadoff hitter, followed by Matt Carpenter. However, I'm not entirely sold on Bourjos as a leadoff man, given his career .306 OBP and I can see Carpenter returning to the leadoff spot with Jhonny Peralta hitting second.
From there, Matt Holliday will likely stay in his familiar 3rd spot with Allen Craig hitting 4th. Then Yadier Molina and Matt Adams following, with perhaps Adams moving down further against some lefties. That leaves Bourjos and Kolten Wong bringing up the rear.
Thus, here is my projected 2014 lineup:
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Jhonny Peralta, SS
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- pitcher
At some point in the 2014 season or before the 2015 season begins, the Cardinals are going to have to make a big decision. Oscar Taveras will likely be ready to assume a full-time outfield role with the team and the Cards already have too many outfielders.
Jon Jay will likely have already been traded by the July 2014 trade deadline, but that still leaves the Cardinals with Holliday, Craig, Bourjos, Adams and Taveras to fill 4 spots (including first) and that's not even considering the Cards other top hitting prospect Stephen Piscotty. I could see the team possibly trading Holliday, who will be 35 at this time, to free up some salary and to replenish their farm system.
Holliday is owed $17 million a year through 2016, with an $17 million option for 2017 that carries a $1 million buyout. Thus, trading him at this time would save the team $35 million. Allen Craig is another trade possibility, but he's younger and under a more reasonable contract, thereby making Holliday the more appealing option.
Thus, here is how I see the 2015 lineup panning out:
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Jhonny Peralta, SS
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- pitcher
Again, there would be no free agents to worry about at this time, so it comes down to whether the Cardinals feel a trade or free agent signing make sense.
My main concern around this time would be Peralta's defense at short. He will turn 34 during the 2016 season and will likely have lost a step or two on defense. Thus, it might make sense for the Cards to pursue a free agent shortstop.
Yunel Escobar will be a free agent after the 2015 season and could be a good fit for the Cardinals. While he is an average hitter, he has proven to be an above average fielder in his career and would give the team's defense a boost.
Of course, if the team signs Escobar, that leaves Peralta without a position. He could become trade bait or a super utility player, but in either case he will be out of the starting lineup.
Also, by this time, I would think that Wong will have established himself as a good major league hitter and capable leadoff man, thereby allowing Carpenter to bat second, thus giving us the following lineup:
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Peter Bourjos, CF
- Yunel Escobar, SS
- pitcher
Finally, a free agent! After the 2016 season, Peter Bourjos will likely leave via free agency. Waiting in the wings could be James Ramsey, who will have likely served a long apprenticeship, beginning in 2015 as a 4th outfielder.
Other than that, it will be more of the status quo for the team, giving us the following lineup:
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Yadier Molina, C
- Allen Craig, RF
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Oscar Taveras, LF
- Yunel Escobar, SS
- James Ramsey, CF
- pitcher
However, the team is certainly set up for long-term success and, if they continue to develop players as they have recently, that success will continue.
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