OK, stop me if you've heard this before:
John Mozeliak: Mike, you got a minute?
Mike Matheny:
Yeah. Take a seat.
John Mozeliak:
You can't start Craig in right tonight. You'll have to start Taveras.
Mike Matheny:
Yeah, I don't want to go fifteen rounds, Mo. The lineup card is mine, and that's all.
John Mozeliak:
That lineup card is definitely yours. I'm just saying you can't start Craig in right.
Mike Matheny:
Well, I am starting him in right.
John Mozeliak:
I don't think so. He plays for Boston now.
Mike Matheny:
You traded Craig?
John Mozeliak:
Yeah. And Joe Kelly too.
Mike Matheny:
You are outside your mind.
John Mozeliak:
Yeah. Cuckoo.
In a scene right out of Moneyball, the Cardinals traded Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston for starting pitcher John Lackey, minor leaguer Corey Littrell and cash. Not only does the move help shore up the Cards starting rotation, but it seemingly forces manager Mike Matheny to play Oscar Taveras, who has only started 6 games since July 10th.
Like Matheny, I was torn between playing Craig and letting him fight out of his slump versus playing Taveras and seeing what he could do on a regular basis. Now that decision is no longer in Matheny's hands.
In addition, the Cardinals replace Joe Kelly in the rotation with John Lackey. Kelly, who has a career 3.25 ERA as a starter, has struggled this year with a 4.37 ERA in 7 starts. While Lackey has pitched well this year with a 3.60 ERA in arguably the toughest division in baseball.
As an added bonus, Lackey has apparently said that he will honor the unusual clause in his contract which pays him only league miminum for the 2015 season due to his having Tommy John surgery between 2010 and 2014. Thus, the ability to keep Lackey around next year for a mere $500K definitely makes this move more attractive.
Long story short, it appears that both Kelly and Craig had fallen out of favor with the Cardinals, so Mozeliak made a move to bring in some new blood and hopefully breath some new life into this team.
Coupled with yesterday's acquisition of Justin Masterson, the Cardinals rotation now has a new look with Adam Wainwright, followed by Lance Lynn, Lackey, Shelby Miller and Masterson.
Plus, the Cardinals may not be done, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times is reporting that the Cardinals may also still be involved in the David Price sweepstakes. (If such a move is made, its likely that Shelby Miller will be involved).
All-in-all, its been a pretty interesting deadline to say the least.
Showing posts with label 2014 starting rotation. Show all posts
Showing posts with label 2014 starting rotation. Show all posts
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Questions abound as Hot Stove League heats up for Cardinals
With the lackluster finish to the 2013 World Series, at least as far as Cardinals fans are concerned, everyone's attention now turns to the Hot Stove League.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
Wednesday, August 7, 2013
The Future is bright for the Cardinals....
...and the present is pretty bright too.
While other teams (such as the Cubs) spend years rebuilding, the Cardinals have found success retooling each year, making them seemingly perennial contenders.
Part of that success comes from a farm system that keeps churning out major leaguers at a nice rate, while also supplementing that farm system with wise investments in free agents.
Lose Albert Pujols to free agency. No problem, we'll just add Carlos Beltran and not miss a beat.
If the only thing that Cardinals fans have to complain about is the lack of production from their shortstop and center fielder, while the team ranks first in the NL in runs scored, then you've got a pretty good team.
So, while we idle through the dog days of August, let's take a peek into the future and look at what the Cardinals 2014 lineup and starting rotation might look like.
2014 Lineup
The big decision here is whether or not to resign Beltran. I've already discussed the argument against resigning Beltran as well as the case for bringing him back on a short-term deal. Other decisions will be who plays second and third and whether the Cardinals want to try to find an upgrade at short.
If it were up to me, I would let Beltran walk and give youngsters such at Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras a chance to replace him. Then trade John Jay and either David Freese or Kolten Wong for an upgrade elsewhere.
Thus, my regular lineup for 2014 would look something like this:
Things are a whole lot murkier in regards to the Cardinals starting rotation.
First, Jake Westbrook is gone after this season. That's pretty much a given.
After that, there has been talk of the Cardinals possibly bringing back Chris Carpenter, even though he might be a long shot to ever pitch again. As much as Carpenter has done for the Cards over the years, I think its time for the team to move on.
The Cards also have two excellent pitching prospects in Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez waiting in the wings. In addition, there is John Gast and Tyler Lyons to consider as well. Plus, let's not forget about Jaime Garcia, who should be healthy by next spring (maybe even in time for this year's playoffs).
Add those guys to projected holdovers Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and we could be looking at 9 pitchers vying for 5 spots.
The way I see it, if Garcia's proves himself healthy after shoulder surgery, he'll likely occupy a rotation spot along with Wainwright, Miller and Lynn.
Gast, who had shoulder surgery of his own in July, will likely return to AAA to prove he's healthy. Lyons, while excellent at AAA, has yet to prove he can get major leaguers out, so he'll likely stay at AAA or be used as trade bait.
Which likely leaves us with Kelly, Wacha and Martinez battling it out for the last rotation spot.
This could then turn out to be a similar battle to this spring's 5th starter battle between Miller, Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. I think, like Miller, the Cardinals will want Wacha to win the battle and then will convert Martinez to a reliever (like Rosenthal) and possibly either trade Kelly or send him back to purgatory (i.e. long relief).
Thus, this is how I see the 2014 starting rotation shaping up:
While other teams (such as the Cubs) spend years rebuilding, the Cardinals have found success retooling each year, making them seemingly perennial contenders.
Part of that success comes from a farm system that keeps churning out major leaguers at a nice rate, while also supplementing that farm system with wise investments in free agents.
Lose Albert Pujols to free agency. No problem, we'll just add Carlos Beltran and not miss a beat.
If the only thing that Cardinals fans have to complain about is the lack of production from their shortstop and center fielder, while the team ranks first in the NL in runs scored, then you've got a pretty good team.
So, while we idle through the dog days of August, let's take a peek into the future and look at what the Cardinals 2014 lineup and starting rotation might look like.
2014 Lineup
The big decision here is whether or not to resign Beltran. I've already discussed the argument against resigning Beltran as well as the case for bringing him back on a short-term deal. Other decisions will be who plays second and third and whether the Cardinals want to try to find an upgrade at short.
If it were up to me, I would let Beltran walk and give youngsters such at Matt Adams and Oscar Taveras a chance to replace him. Then trade John Jay and either David Freese or Kolten Wong for an upgrade elsewhere.
Thus, my regular lineup for 2014 would look something like this:
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Oscar Taveras, CF
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- David Freese/Kolten Wong, 3B/2B
- Pete Kozma (or possible upgrade), SS
- pitcher
Things are a whole lot murkier in regards to the Cardinals starting rotation.
First, Jake Westbrook is gone after this season. That's pretty much a given.
After that, there has been talk of the Cardinals possibly bringing back Chris Carpenter, even though he might be a long shot to ever pitch again. As much as Carpenter has done for the Cards over the years, I think its time for the team to move on.
The Cards also have two excellent pitching prospects in Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez waiting in the wings. In addition, there is John Gast and Tyler Lyons to consider as well. Plus, let's not forget about Jaime Garcia, who should be healthy by next spring (maybe even in time for this year's playoffs).
Add those guys to projected holdovers Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly, and we could be looking at 9 pitchers vying for 5 spots.
The way I see it, if Garcia's proves himself healthy after shoulder surgery, he'll likely occupy a rotation spot along with Wainwright, Miller and Lynn.
Gast, who had shoulder surgery of his own in July, will likely return to AAA to prove he's healthy. Lyons, while excellent at AAA, has yet to prove he can get major leaguers out, so he'll likely stay at AAA or be used as trade bait.
Which likely leaves us with Kelly, Wacha and Martinez battling it out for the last rotation spot.
This could then turn out to be a similar battle to this spring's 5th starter battle between Miller, Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. I think, like Miller, the Cardinals will want Wacha to win the battle and then will convert Martinez to a reliever (like Rosenthal) and possibly either trade Kelly or send him back to purgatory (i.e. long relief).
Thus, this is how I see the 2014 starting rotation shaping up:
- Adam Wainwright
- Shelby Miller
- Lance Lynn
- Jaime Garcia
- Michael Wacha
Tuesday, August 6, 2013
Michael Wacha vs. Carlos Martinez
Most teams consider themselves fortunate if they have one potential top of the rotation prospect in their farm system. The Cardinals are blessed with two of them.
Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez both rank amongst the top 50 prospects in baseball and, after weighing possible trades involving either of these fine young pitchers, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak wisely decided to hold on to both of them.
But, forced to choose, which one would you rather build your future starting rotation around?
Heading into this season, Martinez was generally regarded as the better prospect than Wacha. Martinez had the higher upside of the two, while Wacha was considered more polished or, as scouts like to say, Martinez had a higher ceiling, but Wacha had a higher floor.
However, after a strong spring, in which he allowed only 1 unearned run in 11.2 innings, and a strong, albeit brief, stint in the majors, it appears that Wacha has passed Martinez in some scouts' eyes.
Baseball America ranks Wacha as the 12th best prospect and Martinez 24th on their midseason top 50, while MLB.com has Wacha 18th and Martinez 26th.
Meanwhile, John Sickels still believes in Martinez, ranking him 9th and Wacha 17th on his midseason top 75 prospects, while Baseball Prospectus has them about even with Wacha 21st and Martinez 22nd.
Personally, I like them both and would not want to part with either of them. I'm already envisioning a future homegrown starting rotation of Adam Wainwright (yes, I know he wasn't drafted by the Cards, but he was acquired as a minor leaguer), Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.
However, if I had to choose, I think I would have to pick Martinez. He has the stuff to be a #1 or #2 starter and seems to be putting it all together in AAA, with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts. Wacha, on the other hand, is still considered a #3 starter at best by some scouts. If Martinez can live up to his potential, I think he can be much more dominant than Wacha and therefore more valuable in the long run.
But that's just me. What do you think? If you had to choose one or the other, who would you pick? I'll post a poll on the homepage for your answers.
Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez both rank amongst the top 50 prospects in baseball and, after weighing possible trades involving either of these fine young pitchers, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak wisely decided to hold on to both of them.
But, forced to choose, which one would you rather build your future starting rotation around?
Heading into this season, Martinez was generally regarded as the better prospect than Wacha. Martinez had the higher upside of the two, while Wacha was considered more polished or, as scouts like to say, Martinez had a higher ceiling, but Wacha had a higher floor.
However, after a strong spring, in which he allowed only 1 unearned run in 11.2 innings, and a strong, albeit brief, stint in the majors, it appears that Wacha has passed Martinez in some scouts' eyes.
Baseball America ranks Wacha as the 12th best prospect and Martinez 24th on their midseason top 50, while MLB.com has Wacha 18th and Martinez 26th.
Meanwhile, John Sickels still believes in Martinez, ranking him 9th and Wacha 17th on his midseason top 75 prospects, while Baseball Prospectus has them about even with Wacha 21st and Martinez 22nd.
Personally, I like them both and would not want to part with either of them. I'm already envisioning a future homegrown starting rotation of Adam Wainwright (yes, I know he wasn't drafted by the Cards, but he was acquired as a minor leaguer), Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha and Carlos Martinez.
However, if I had to choose, I think I would have to pick Martinez. He has the stuff to be a #1 or #2 starter and seems to be putting it all together in AAA, with a 1.76 ERA in 10 starts. Wacha, on the other hand, is still considered a #3 starter at best by some scouts. If Martinez can live up to his potential, I think he can be much more dominant than Wacha and therefore more valuable in the long run.
But that's just me. What do you think? If you had to choose one or the other, who would you pick? I'll post a poll on the homepage for your answers.
Tuesday, June 18, 2013
Is Trevor Rosenthal now pigeonholed as a reliever?
Bernie Miklasz had an interesting article today discussing the possibility of the Cardinals trading for Cliff Lee (something that I already discussed here). While an interesting analysis and one that reached the same conclusion as I did (we don't need Lee), what really caught my eye was his discussion of the 2014 starting pitching logjam.
Here's what Bernie had to say about the Cardinals glut of starting pitching for 2014:
Is it already a forgone conclusion that Rosenthal will remain a reliever for 2014 and beyond?
Heading into this spring, there was suppose to be a 3-man battle for the 5th starter spot between Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal was only given a token chance, as he was only given one start before he was moved to the bullpen.
Next spring, with Jake Westbrook likely becoming a free agent and Jaime Garcia's availability at the start of the season up in the air, there will likely be two spots open. Will Rosenthal even be part of that battle?
It seems unlikely, as the Cardinals should have Michael Wacha, John Gast, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly, Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons all battling for those two spots, making the need to use Rosenthal as a starter uneccessary.
Normally I'm opposed to relegating a top arm to the bullpen when he can be much more valuable as a starting pitcher. However, in this case, it probably makes the most sense. Edward Mujica will likely be gone via free agency and with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will likely need Rosenthal to be the 9th inning guy.
It just would have been nice if he had been given a chance as a starter first, because now we'll never know what we might be missing.
Here's what Bernie had to say about the Cardinals glut of starting pitching for 2014:
Looking beyond 2013, Lee could slide into the Westbrook slot for 2014 because Westbrook becomes a free agent after this year. But with Lee in the mix, that would still leave the Cardinals with Wainwright, Lee, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, Kelly. Let's not leave Seth Maness off the list; the Cardinals like him a lot. And there’s also Jaime Garcia, who should rehab his rotator cuff in time to pitch at some point in 2014. You can throw Lyons into the mix, too. And other potential starters will likely emerge from the system. We’ve already mentioned at least nine or 10 starting-pitcher entries for 2014 and beyond.Yes, he mentioned 9 or 10 starting pitchers, but nowhere does he mention Trevor Rosenthal.
Is it already a forgone conclusion that Rosenthal will remain a reliever for 2014 and beyond?
Heading into this spring, there was suppose to be a 3-man battle for the 5th starter spot between Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal. However, Rosenthal was only given a token chance, as he was only given one start before he was moved to the bullpen.
Next spring, with Jake Westbrook likely becoming a free agent and Jaime Garcia's availability at the start of the season up in the air, there will likely be two spots open. Will Rosenthal even be part of that battle?
It seems unlikely, as the Cardinals should have Michael Wacha, John Gast, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly, Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons all battling for those two spots, making the need to use Rosenthal as a starter uneccessary.
Normally I'm opposed to relegating a top arm to the bullpen when he can be much more valuable as a starting pitcher. However, in this case, it probably makes the most sense. Edward Mujica will likely be gone via free agency and with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will likely need Rosenthal to be the 9th inning guy.
It just would have been nice if he had been given a chance as a starter first, because now we'll never know what we might be missing.
Friday, March 8, 2013
Trevor Rosenthal is a reliever, but for how long?
After his stellar performance last year as a reliever both down the stretch during the regular season and during the playoffs, Trevor Rosenthal will be returning to the pen this year.
But, is this a career change for Rosenthal or just a temporary assignment?
As we have seen previously with Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, the Cardinals have no qualms about using one of their stud righthanders in the bullpen to get their initial big league experience and then converting them back to a starter later.
However, given the Cardinals seemingly endless supply of young, hard-throwing pitching prospects, maybe this time the move might be permanent.
For this season, the Cardinals will have either Joe Kelly or Shelby Miller man the 5th starter spot and, given the way he has pitched this spring, Michael Wacha will likely be the first starter recalled from AAA when needed.
Assuming that a slimmer Lance Lynn can withstand the rigors of an entire season and Jaime Garcia's shoulder doesn't start barking at him, there should be no need to use Rosenthal in the rotation.
Next year though, things get a little murkier.
Jake Westbrook will become a free agent and, unless they can get an extension ironed out soon, Wainwright could head in that direction as well. If the Cards have just one hole to fill, then the loser of this year's Kelly/Miller competition will likely compete with Wacha for that spot. However, if they have two holes to fill, then all bets are off and you will probably see Carlos Martinez and Rosenthal enter the fray. And don't forget about control freak Seth Maness--you know the guy with the incredible 112/10 K/BB ratio last year.
The Cardinals could also look to trade some of this excess pitching for an area of need (shortstop), which could also clear the path for Rosenthal to return to starting.
So, just because Rosenthal's being relegated to the pen this year, doesn't mean that's his final destination. It just gives the Cardinals more time to sort it all out.
But, is this a career change for Rosenthal or just a temporary assignment?
As we have seen previously with Adam Wainwright and Lance Lynn, the Cardinals have no qualms about using one of their stud righthanders in the bullpen to get their initial big league experience and then converting them back to a starter later.
However, given the Cardinals seemingly endless supply of young, hard-throwing pitching prospects, maybe this time the move might be permanent.
For this season, the Cardinals will have either Joe Kelly or Shelby Miller man the 5th starter spot and, given the way he has pitched this spring, Michael Wacha will likely be the first starter recalled from AAA when needed.
Assuming that a slimmer Lance Lynn can withstand the rigors of an entire season and Jaime Garcia's shoulder doesn't start barking at him, there should be no need to use Rosenthal in the rotation.
Next year though, things get a little murkier.
Jake Westbrook will become a free agent and, unless they can get an extension ironed out soon, Wainwright could head in that direction as well. If the Cards have just one hole to fill, then the loser of this year's Kelly/Miller competition will likely compete with Wacha for that spot. However, if they have two holes to fill, then all bets are off and you will probably see Carlos Martinez and Rosenthal enter the fray. And don't forget about control freak Seth Maness--you know the guy with the incredible 112/10 K/BB ratio last year.
The Cardinals could also look to trade some of this excess pitching for an area of need (shortstop), which could also clear the path for Rosenthal to return to starting.
So, just because Rosenthal's being relegated to the pen this year, doesn't mean that's his final destination. It just gives the Cardinals more time to sort it all out.
Wednesday, February 27, 2013
UCB Roundtable - Day 7: Putting together the Cardinals 2014 lineup and starting rotation
Its day 7 of the United Cardinals Blogger annual spring roundtable, which means its my turn to pose the topic for discussion. Below is the transcript.
Cardinals Fan in Cubs Land:
With the World's best minor league system and some big contracts coming off the books after the 2013 season (notably Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran and Jake Westbrook), the Cardinals will find themselves in the enviable position of having the young talent to fill some lineup holes as well as the payroll flexibility to fill others.
Given the Cardinals current crop of prospects and assuming that the Cardinals have in the neighborhood of $25 million to spend next year, put yourself in Mo's shoes and put together the Cardinals 2014 starting lineup and starting rotation. (Note: You can also assume trades, if reasonable, and any free agent signings must be actual free agents after the 2013 season).
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
CFCL - So, who are you trading for Tulo?
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Bob Netherton - On The Outside Corner
Cardinals Fan in Cubs Land:
With the World's best minor league system and some big contracts coming off the books after the 2013 season (notably Chris Carpenter, Carlos Beltran and Jake Westbrook), the Cardinals will find themselves in the enviable position of having the young talent to fill some lineup holes as well as the payroll flexibility to fill others.
Given the Cardinals current crop of prospects and assuming that the Cardinals have in the neighborhood of $25 million to spend next year, put yourself in Mo's shoes and put together the Cardinals 2014 starting lineup and starting rotation. (Note: You can also assume trades, if reasonable, and any free agent signings must be actual free agents after the 2013 season).
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Some part of this are pretty easy, some a little tougher.
C Yadier Molina
1B Allen Craig
2B Kolten Wong
SS Troy Tulowitzki
3B David Freese
LF Oscar Taveras
CF Jon Jay
RF Matt Holliday
Adam Wainwright
Jaime Garcia
Lance Lynn
Shelby Miller
Michael Wacha
I
think that if the Rockies have an off year, they will be likely to move
Tulo and the Cardinals will be the ones most likely to be able to swing
the deal. Shortstop has to be addressed and with no obvious up and
comers in the system (depending on what you think of Ryan Jackson and
Greg Garcia, I guess), I think they'd make that splash.
Obviously, I'm also counting on the Wainwright extension to get done.
CFCL - So, who are you trading for Tulo?
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Oh, man, I've got to do all of Mo's job for him? :)
It's
obviously going to have to come from pitching. Joe Kelly and Carlos
Martinez would likely be the brunt of the package, assuming the Cards
don't take on much salary, which they can afford to do.
Daniel Solzman - Redbird Rants
Wouldn’t Carlos need his visa issue taken care of first?
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
I
think we can safely assume that will be cleared up. We're talking
2014, not what the lineup will look like for the next home game. If
it's not, Martinez has bigger issues to deal with than a trade.
Bob Netherton - On The Outside Corner
This is a fascinating scenario - one that has been discussed many times.
Clearly, the Cardinals don't have anything in the system like the old Rockies
version of Tulowitzki. I think we should keep an eye on him this year to see if
he returns to form after a rough injury year in 2012.
One look at his home/away splits is enough to give you to willies though. That's not a lot of return for more than a half a decade of $20M/yr. I'd almost rather have Jackson/Garcia and a guarantee of extending Wainwright for a
ridiculous sum and still being able to afford Wong/Rosenthal/Miller/Wacha/Taveras/Craig (or Adams) beyond their first arbitration year than put that much forward money on Tulowitzki.
But I like the way you think, Dr. Moneybags
One look at his home/away splits is enough to give you to willies though. That's not a lot of return for more than a half a decade of $20M/yr. I'd almost rather have Jackson/Garcia and a guarantee of extending Wainwright for a
ridiculous sum and still being able to afford Wong/Rosenthal/Miller/Wacha/Taveras/Craig (or Adams) beyond their first arbitration year than put that much forward money on Tulowitzki.
But I like the way you think, Dr. Moneybags
Tom Knuppel - Cardinals GM
I didn't check these for accuracy but found this on another site...If
correct, Tulo doesn't look too bad away from Coors Field...
Wow, this is fun (and dangerous)!!
(Away from Coors Field)
2012
.275/.347/.467, .814 OPS
2011
.292/.362/.519, .881 OPS
2010
.291/.358/.504, .863 OPS
2011
.292/.362/.519, .881 OPS
2010
.291/.358/.504, .863 OPS
Bob Netherton - On The Outside Corner
Those look about right. And they are a good 100 points (OPS) lower away than in
Colorado. Is that worth 6/118M (which is Matt Holliday money) ?
Colorado. Is that worth 6/118M (which is Matt Holliday money) ?
Tom Knuppel - Cardinals GM
I am sure they are lower than Coors but look good at Busch.
Tom Knuppel - Cardinals GM
As far as the money dealings, I don't get too wrapped up in them much. So I can't really say.
The
Cardinals have done well for almost my entire life... 70's and 90's
were bad... so I let them sort out what they want to spend.
I go with the flow.
C Yadier Molina
1B Matt Adams
2B Kolten Wong
SS Troy Tulowitzki acquired in exchange for Allen Craig and John Gast
3B David Freese
LF Matt Holliday
CF Oscar Taveras
RF Ben Zobrist signed as free agent
Trevor Rosenthal
Jaime Garcia
Phil Hughes signed as free agent
Shelby Miller
Michael Wacha
Wainwright goes the Pujols route. John Jay gets traded somewhere in there.
Matt Whitener - Cheap Seats Please
This is a tough one, because there is going to be a lot of change
coming to this club over the next year. They're in the middle of what
I've come to see as a "competitive rebuilding" process, sticking in
the prospects, while having the luxury of not having to rush any of
them.
So to that extent, I don't think we see Michael Wacha or Carlos
Martinez next year. Wacha will get time at Triple A, while they'll
make a decision on whether it's early or late innings for Martinez. As
for trades, I'm going to stay away from that, too many variables in
play there, and it makes virtually the entire MLB available for
interpretation.
But based on what's here, in the system and on the 2014 free agent
market, this is what I see it looking like:
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kolten Wong
3B: David Freese
SS: Willie Bloomquist (FA)
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Oscar Tavaras
SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Shelby Miller
SP: Jaime Garcia
SP: Lance Lynn
SP: Jason Hammel (FA)
RP: Trevor Rosenthal
RP: Edward Mujica
RP: Mitchell Boggs
CL: Jason Motte
coming to this club over the next year. They're in the middle of what
I've come to see as a "competitive rebuilding" process, sticking in
the prospects, while having the luxury of not having to rush any of
them.
So to that extent, I don't think we see Michael Wacha or Carlos
Martinez next year. Wacha will get time at Triple A, while they'll
make a decision on whether it's early or late innings for Martinez. As
for trades, I'm going to stay away from that, too many variables in
play there, and it makes virtually the entire MLB available for
interpretation.
But based on what's here, in the system and on the 2014 free agent
market, this is what I see it looking like:
C: Yadier Molina
1B: Allen Craig
2B: Kolten Wong
SS: Willie Bloomquist (FA)
LF: Matt Holliday
CF: Jon Jay
RF: Oscar Tavaras
SP: Adam Wainwright
SP: Shelby Miller
SP: Jaime Garcia
SP: Lance Lynn
SP: Jason Hammel (FA)
RP: Trevor Rosenthal
RP: Edward Mujica
RP: Mitchell Boggs
CL: Jason Motte
Daniel Solzman - Redbird Rants
2014 Starting Lineup
C Yadier Molina
1B Allen Craig
2B Koten Wong
3B David Freese
SS Greg Garcia, barring a trade
LF Matt Holliday (he’s played LF his entire career so there is no need to
move him to RF)
CF Jon Jay
RF Oscar Taveras
SPs: Adam Wainwright, Jaime Garcia, Shelby Miller, Michael Wacha, and Joe
Kelly/Lance Lynn
If there is a trade for a short stop, I can see Lance or another starter
being moved in the deal.
J.D. Norton - Bleed Cardinal Red With Me
2014
C-Molina
1B-Craig
2B-Wong
3B-Freese
SS-Kozma
LF-Holliday
CF-Jay
RF-Taveras
SP's
1. Adam Wainwright
2. Trevor Rosenthal
3. Lance Lynn
4. Shelby Miller
5. Michael Wacha
Cards bring back Wainwright, Rockies ask for too much for TT. Mo stays smart and doesn't deal young pitching.
Corey Rudd - St. Louis Sports Minute
A couple of moves highlighted:
1. Mozeliak let's Wainwright walk (which makes my heart hurt)
2.
Trade for Elvis Andrus. I think Rosenthal alone and some mid-tier
pitching prospects gets this done (maybe Maness). Texas will always need
pitching and they have Profar ready. I prefer Andrus over Tulo because I
think he will cost less in a long term deal, can be a top of the order
guy, gets hurt less, and is younger.
3. To replace Wainwright, Mo will bring home innings
horse Dan Haren, who is in a one year deal with Washington right now.
Something like 3 years, $42 million could get this done, considering
Haren is making $13 mil this year and would come at a big discount
compared to Wainwright.
Lineup:
2b Wong
SS Andrus
LF Holliday
1b Craig
RF Taveras
C Molina
3b Freese
CF Jay
Bench:
Adams
Cruz
M. Carpenter
D. Descalso
T. Wigginton
Starting rotation:
1. Haren
2. Lynn
3. Garcia
4. Miller
5. Wacha/Martinez
Bully:
Motte
Boggs
Kelly
Gast
Choate
Scrabble
Also, since it hasn't been pointed out yet, guys like Jay, Craig, Freese
again, and Boggs are all gong to be do decent arbitration raises this
winter, so we will likely not have as much money to play around.
Also, I left off a seventh in my Bully, which will be Salas, who also will be arbitration eligible soon enough.
Matt Whitener - Cheap Seats Please
GREAT call on Dan Haren. He's said before he wouldn't mind coming back
to St. Louis, and with or without Wainwright, I think he's a smart
play for next year. The rotation needs more experience still, and I'm
not counting Jaime as that veteran guy.
to St. Louis, and with or without Wainwright, I think he's a smart
play for next year. The rotation needs more experience still, and I'm
not counting Jaime as that veteran guy.
Bob Netherton - On The Outside Corner
Count me in on Dan Haren. He could be the new Jake Westbrook and would be a
great addition to the rotation. We might get a Woody Williams kind of
performance out of him, and that would be just fine with me :-) Doesn't change
the need to resign Wainwright, but he would be a fantastic addition to the rotation.
great addition to the rotation. We might get a Woody Williams kind of
performance out of him, and that would be just fine with me :-) Doesn't change
the need to resign Wainwright, but he would be a fantastic addition to the rotation.
Wes Keene - Keene on Baseball
I'm going against the grain here. Young, club-controlled talent is great
but I need veterans, too. I'm keeping Waino. I'm also moving Beltran's
money to SS. We'll put some of our young talent in the outfield (Oscar),
and put up the old Beltran dollars as trade enhancement to get Tulo or
Andrus (whoever wants to make a deal happen). That will also enable us
to deal one of our middle infielders now. At this point, I'm looking at
Descalso, I don't want to lose M Carp.
Matt Whitener - Cheap Seats Please
The middle infield market is so much stronger next season, and while
I'm pretry sure the Cardinals won't come roaring out the gates after
Robinson Cano, there's plenty of upgrade worthy talent out there. I
don't think it's too far out of a possibility that Mo goes after
another short-term veteran at Shortstop. Especially if Greg Garcia
shows some promise.
A utility infielder, that can start as well would have some value, and
not at an overpay rate like the Red Sox did for Stephen Drew this year
($10 M, 1 yr).
I'm pretry sure the Cardinals won't come roaring out the gates after
Robinson Cano, there's plenty of upgrade worthy talent out there. I
don't think it's too far out of a possibility that Mo goes after
another short-term veteran at Shortstop. Especially if Greg Garcia
shows some promise.
A utility infielder, that can start as well would have some value, and
not at an overpay rate like the Red Sox did for Stephen Drew this year
($10 M, 1 yr).
Mark Tomasik - RetroSimba
Lineup:
Molina, catcher; Craig, first base; Wong, second base; Tulowitzki,
shortstop; Freese, third base; Holliday, Jay, Taveras, outfield.
Rotation: Wainwright, Garcia, Lynn, Miller, Wacha.
For more of these roundtable discussions, be sure to check out the links at United Cardinals Bloggers.
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