Cardinals set 40-man roster before next month's rule 5 draft. Who did they leave exposed?

Wednesday was the deadline for major league teams to set their 40-man rosters prior to the December 12th Rule 5 draft.  As such, the Cardinals made a series of moves to protect their key prospects.

First, they tried to clear some extra space by putting Ryan Jackson on waivers, however he was claimed by the Houston Astros.  Despite the Cardinals struggles with Pete Kozma and Daniel Descalso at short, Jackson never seemed to be an option, at least in the minds of Cardinals management, thus clearing him off the roster makes sense.

Second, the Cardinals removed pitcher John Gast and infielder Jermaine Curtis from the 40-man roster.  Gast is a question mark for 2014 after undergoing shoulder surgery and Curtis is not in the Cards long range plans.

Finally, the Cardinals added Oscar Taveras, outfielder Mike O'Neill and infielder Greg Garcia to their 40-man roster.

Taveras was a no-brainer.  The Cardinals would have never left him exposed to the Rule 5 draft.

O'Neill has been proving critics wrong for years, by his ability to hit for average and get on base (career .328/.435/.405 line in the minors).  He has little power or speed, but if his skills translate to the majors, he can be at least a quality 4th or 5th outfielder.

Garcia is a quality middle infield prospect who started getting some work at third this year.  He has a career .281/.386/.403 line in the minors and should prove to be at least a good utility infielder in the majors.

Yesterday, Derrick Goold provided a pretty comprehensive list of players eligible for the Rule 5 draft in the Cardinals organization, based on that and the above moves, here are the players I think could potentially be drafted next month.

John Gast

I was a bit surprised that the Cardinals dropped Gast from the 40-man roster.  Although he underwent surgery to repair a torn lat in July, he still is a quality prospect and any team that drafts him can stash him on the DL until he's healthy.  In my mind, he's the most likely Cardinal to get selected next month.

Boone Whiting

An 18th round pick in 2010, Whiting has decent minor league numbers (3.13 ERA in 345 innings) despite the lack of overpowering stuff.  His fastball sits in the 89-91 mph range, but he has a quality slider to go with it.  Some team could select him as a bullpen arm.

Seth Blair

A first round pick (46th overall) in 2010, Blair has dealt with control issues, inconsistency and injuries in his minor league career.  He posted a 5.07 ERA at AA this year and still has a mid-90's fastball, but may be better suited for relief.

Jordan Swagerty

A second round pick in 2010, Swagerty has a nice minor league debut in 2011, posting a 1.83 ERA in 93.2 innings.  However, he had Tommy John surgery in April 2012 and pitched just 10.2 innings in 2013.

He has a mid-90's fastball and an excellent curve and could be another guy that a team could select and stash on the D.L. while he works his way back.

Robert Stock

Stock was drafted as a catcher but was converted to a pitcher in 2012.  He pitched for USC in college and flashed a low-to-mid-90's fastball and an average slider.  He's still pretty raw (4.20 ERA in 109.1 innings in the minors), but could be stashed in a major league bullpen.

Overall, you will notice that all of the above players are pitchers, mainly because teams usually select pitching in the Rule 5 draft, as its easier to stash a pitcher in a major league bullpen, and because the hitters the Cardinals left unprotected are not so special.

I think that Gast is likely to be chosen and possibly even Whiting, which will greatly hurt the Cardinals depth.

UCB Roundtable Day 3: The Cardinals 2014 starting rotation

For the United Cardinals Bloggers November project, we are conducting a roundtable discussion taking a look at the 2013 season and what the 2014 season may bring.  To follow the Roundtable, be sure check out the United Cardinals Bloggers' website.

Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:

With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?

Here are the responses from my partners in crime.

Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball

So many arms! So few starting slots! Obviously Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are in the rotation, and Jaime Garcia too. Trevor Rosenthal, as John Mozeliak said the other day, is going to be in the bullpen and Seth Maness was too valuable this season with his double-play-inducing magic out of the bullpen to give that up. 

Despite all that he did this season, I just don't see Joe Kelly being guaranteed a spot and can see another spring training competition happening -- probably with the remaining pitchers you listed here, in John Gast, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. I really liked Martinez in that eighth inning role out of the bullpen, though, and he succeeded there but I can see him more as a starter. Gast seems headed to Memphis for me. Lyons is intriguing -- perhaps in the bullpen to begin with, but available as a starter as needed too or if someone else falters (which of course won't happen, right?)

Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba

Strongest rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Carlos Martinez, Jaime Garcia. Like Wacha, Martinez is a special talent and needs to start.

Trade material: Lance Lynn or Joe Kelly for a starting shortstop.

Bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, closer; Lynn or Kelly, 8^th inning; Seth Maness, 7^th inning; Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate as left-handed specialists.

Ready in Memphis: Tyler Lyons and John Gast are on-call to replace an injured or faltering starter.

Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants

I couldn’t agree more.  So many arms, not enough spots!

Christine Coleman (follow-up)

 
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.

Joe Schwarz - stlcupofjoe’s Sports Page

In my opinion, you give every single pitcher that wants to start a chance to do so in Spring Training, and this includes Trevor Rosenthal and Kevin Siegrist. Will both likely end up in the bullpen? Yep, but down the road when it comes time to re-sign them, the Cardinals will have the leverage to say that they at least gave them a shot to be a starting pitcher. Otherwise, their agents could use that against the Cardinals saying they "misused" their client or "didn't allow them to reach their full potential."

However, this is my starting rotation at this time: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos Martinez. I honestly believe Martinez has the best "stuff" of that group and has the potential to become great. Will he succeed in the role as a starting pitcher? That is yet to be seen, but we will never know until he is given that shot. The bullpen will always be a solid fallback option for Baby Pedro.

As Mark said, this leaves Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn out. Do I think they are able to bring the return that the Cardinals want at shortstop? No. Thus, given the risk of injuries, especially with Garcia (as most of you will soon find out, I am not a big fan of his), I think you hang on to Kelly and Lynn for at least the first part of the season. Gast, who I do not think will be healthy yet, will be in Memphis, and Lyons will likely be in the 'pen or shipped out.

Ben Chambers - The View From Here

 

This is a great problem to have. The Cardinals have too many talented starting pitchers and they have to figure out who it’s going to be in the rotation! 

Let’s start off with the easy ones: John Gast had shoulder surgery near the end of July. The initial reports were unclear as to the timetable for him to get back, but espn.com reported that it would be 8 to 12 months. If that is the case, then the earliest he would be able to throw again is right around opening day, so I expect him to be in Memphis getting stronger and being able to step in during the middle/late season if injury prompts a need for him. 

Mo and Matheny have already said that Rosenthal is coming back as the closer. This is probably the best move for the team. Motte will be back next year, but there are too many questions that need to be answered first: Will he be able to pitch on back-to-back days? Will his stamina hold all season? Will he have a semi-struggling year like Wainwright did coming back from Tommy John? Will he still be able to hit 100 on the mound? There are just too many unknowns at this point. I hope that the Cardinals give him a shot in 2015 (although I am not sure how much of a shot he’ll have then, either), but for 2014 he’s needed in the 9th inning.

So, that leaves: Wainwright, Miller, Garcia, Lynn, Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, Lyons, and Maness. I think Maness continues in the bullpen. It’s always nice to have a guy out there who you can trust to come in the game with runners on in late innings. Even if he doesn’t get all the double plays next year, every bullpen needs at least one guy like that. Lynn has been up-and-down both of the last two years, and I really hope that they put him in the bullpen. He has the ability to be great, and he’s shown that, but he also has the ability to lose quite a few in a row, and he’s shown that, too. 

Wainwright, Wacha, and Garcis are the only three that are locks for the rotation. Wainwright because he is the ace, Wacha because he is so talented, and he has ice running through his veins. Garcia because he has been a starter the entire time he’s been with the Cardinals and being a lefty, it does keep the rotation from being strictly right-handed. 

I expect Lyons to also be in Memphis. He was great his first few starts, but then he just went downhill. I don’t know why, but maybe the Cardinals do. Either way, he probably needs a little time to get himself back on track a little, and Memphis will provide him that opportunity.

Who gets the last two spots? I think it’s Miller and Martinez. I would personally like it to be Miller and Kelly. I think Kelly has good stuff, and he showed it in 2013. He was one of the best pitchers in the second half last year. Lowest ERAs for the second half of 2013 in the NL: Kershaw at 1.59, Grienke at 1.85, and Kelly at 1.91. I really like him, and I think he can be a 15-20 game winner if the Cardinals give him a chance. Martinez might get the nod over him, but I would be personally upset if it happens. Kelly currently is the better pitcher. If Martinez gets the spot, Kelly will go back to being the long man out of the bullpen. If Kelly gets the spot, I expect Martinez to be in Memphis.

No matter who actually gets into the rotation, I am excited to see those arms. The depth that the Cardinals have in starting pitching is unlike any other team has. I will end with this stipulation: I could see one or two of those guys being traded to get a SS, and that would change this quickly, but as of right now, that’s what I think will happen.

John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com

My rotation would be Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Garcia as well. The potential for those five is out of the planet. Joe Kelly is intriguing, but I think he is near his peak value, but that doesn't mean I want to trade him. I think he is great in the clubhouse and would be a great fit in the bullpen.

What to do with the others..... 

Lynn: I am going to disagree with you all that Lance Lynn does not have that much trade value. I think people in St. Louis value him a little lower than those in other MLB cities. If you look at his numbers and take out the emotion, he has had a couple of solid seasons. I am not saying that Lynn alone would net Profar or even Starlin Castro, but he could be a very valuable trade chip. How many other teams would want a perennial 15 game winner?

Rosenthal: Don't let Mozeliak fool you, Rosenthal will end up the 8th inning guy on one condition, if Jason Motte is healthy. I know that Mo said he will begin spring as the closer, but what else should he say? Motte is not guaranteed to be healthy by then, but i don't think Jason loses his closing spot due to injury. Wally Pipp may disagree with me.

Maness: As much as I want Maness to start, the role he played this year was best for the team, plus there isn't a starting spot for him in St. Louis. He is one that could be a very solid starter somewhere else, but i am fine with him as the DP man.

Lyons and Gast: Both begin the season in Memphis with opportunities to fill in at the MLB level.

Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat

I'd agree pretty much entirely with what John wrote, but for his comments on Rosenthal. In my mind, Rosie will be the closer, because by time you can be comfortable with Motte and his recovery, Rosenthal will already be entrenched.  Given the myriad of issues surrounding a hard-throwing reliever coming off surgery, including command issues, I can't imagine that Motte would be anything more than an eighth-inning guy.  Should Rosenthal stumble and Motte look good, they might flip, but I'd be shocked if Rosenthal doesn't get the first save chance of the year.

That's a bit off topic, but being that I can't disagree with a rotation of Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia and Martinez, what else am I going to say?

Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa

Being late to the party, I will basically break things down as best as I can without being redundant.   

Barring further injury, my starting rotation out of the listed candidates has to Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez unless Lance Lynn finds a way to be not be traded.  

Lynn is premium trade material.  He has a fine resume that includes over 30 wins in two seasons and good bullpen work.   He is young and hungry and may need a change of scenery to lower his pouting potential.  

Jaime is making 7 million this year so he needs to be in the rotation and he is a lefty who can be great when he is on.  Let's hope his feelings are in check.

Joe Kelly is Mr. Stretch.   He can start, relieve, and close and will find himself in that long arm bullpen spot to begin the season as insurance in case someone gets hurt.  Few can do what he does effectively.   Be solid out of the bullpen and win a lot of starts.  His mindset is key and helps him adjust.  I am surprised teams don't target him in a trade because of his versatility.  

Lyons and Gast are Memphis starters until injuries happen.   They performed well in 2013 but won't climb over guys like Martinez and Kelly for starts, at least not again.  These guys are also trade depth because they proved they can come up to big leagues and instantly win games.  Look for them to be add on's to big deals Mozelaik keeps up his sleeve.

Trevor Rosenthal is a setup-closer with this team for a long time.   He has the makeup, ability and finish to go into the ninth and let it rip.  We saw it for good when he saved 3 games in the final week of the season and basically made the Pirates, Dodgers and Red Sox look stupid for a month.   He has a propane heater and a decent changeup and if he was going to try his hand at starting again, he would have to redefine that third pitch.   I get why he wants to start but at this point it's futile.  Jason Motte will be back but won't be ready to even compete for the closer role until July.   Motte had the surgery in May of 2013 which means he may not touch a baseball diamond during a real game until late April/early May.  He will find his control and slowly develop back into that stopper we knew from 2011 and 2012.  He will set up until the Cards really deem it necessary to switch him and Rosenthal.  If Trevor is throwing gas and closing everything, it won't happen unless Motte is electric.  I do think Motte gets back to the closer role sometime, but too late for Rosenthal to switch back to starting.  Motte makes 6 million this year but needs to get healthy.   Rosenthal may say he would like to start but watching him close in October I see a man empowered and having a lot of fun.  Let's not believe he is wanting to truly move just yet ladies and gents.  

There I go too. Wow.  Just like Shoptaw.  HA!  Must be a Daniel thing.  

Waino, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez for me in early April.  

Chris Mallonee - Bird On The Bat 82

If we are answering "who we would want" instead of "who do we think it will be", then I will go with Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller, Lynn as the Opening Day Starters.

Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.

I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.

Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.

Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please 

Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.

Maness, Gast, Lyons and Rosenthal aren't in the convo, for various reasons.

I also don't want to delve too deep into what hasn't happened yet, such as trades and situations like that. Basically, what it comes down to is Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez in a four-corners match, albeit one that is not that difficult to sort out.

Martinez has the best arm of the group (and maybe the entire team). With the said, I'd like to see him in a year like Rosenthal, at the end of the pen in some capacity. Motte's status is uncertain and both Axford and Mujica are gone. Bottomline, the back end of the bullpen is questionable, and bringing Martinez along there would be a perfect way for him to gain some Big League experience and expand his repertoire.

Garcia is purely a starter, and a much needed left-handed one at that, so he's in there too from the moment he's ready. All indications say that's spring training as of now, so that brings the rotation to a four-man group.

For the final spot, I opt with Lance Lynn. He's not always the popular choice, and surely isn't the most consistent of the group, however, there are a lot of things that work in his favor. He's still young, is steadily racking up experienced innings and still has a great skills package that can develop. He would be as good of a fourth/fifth starter that any team in the NL would have on their side.

So, if the Cardinals can break camp (for the first time since 2010) with a completely healthy rotation, I'd like to see a Wainwright, Miller, Garcia, Wacha, Lynn (in that order) mix take to the mound.

Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth

Who I would want: Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia, Martinez

Who I think it will be: Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Martinez, Kelly

<Strauss'd> intrigue... </Strauss'd>

Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
 

I've given this way more thought than I should, and the trio at the back-end keeps changing by the hour. Most of us know it really doesn't matter who starts the season in the rotation, however, the changing of the guard could be 2014.

I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.

My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.

Finally, my thoughts

The Cardinals have an abundance of riches with a stockpile of young arms to choose from for their starting rotation.  The only locks I see for the 2014 rotation are Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha.  

Jaime Garcia should grab the 4th slot, but only if he proves to be healthy, which, when dealing with shoulder injuries, particularly labrum tears, is never a sure thing.

Lance Lynn will probably end up getting traded as part of a package for a shortstop, as he is in desperate need of a change in scenery.

That leaves Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez to battle it out for the 5th spot.  Kelly will probably be wondering what he has to do to prove he is a major league starter, especially after going 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons.  However, just like Shelby Miller did this spring, I see Martinez beating Kelly out for the last spot, leaving Kelly to return to his long relief role.

John Gast and Tyler Lyons will return to Memphis to provide depth and Seth Maness will return to the bullpen.

Trevor Rosenthal will start the season as the Cardinals closer and never look back, even when Jason Motte returns.  After his dominant display at the end of the season and in the postseason, I just don't see him relinquishing the closer role.

Overall, its a good problem to have and one that will take the Cardinals some time to sort out both during the offseason and next spring.

The St.Louis Cardinals Top 7 Prospects

For our September United Cardinals Bloggers project, we were asked to rank our Top 7 Cardinals prospects. 

For this, I eliminated any player who had exhausted their rookie eligibility (130 at bats or 50 IP) and based my rankings on this year's performance as well as the views of scouts from various websites. 

My picks are below.  Be sure to check out the United Cardinals Bloggers page for links to the other lists and a composite ranking.

1.  Oscar Taveras

Despite a season marred by injuries, Taveras remains the Cardinals top prospect.  He hit .310/.348/.471 with 5 homers and 5 stolen bases in just 47 games on the season.  He will likely head back to AAA to start next year, but should be called up by mid-season.

2.  Carlos Martinez

The Cardinals top pitching prospect, who has yet to use up his rookie eligibility, Martinez got a late start to the season due to visa issues, but put up an impressive 6-3 record with a 2.49 ERA in 16 starts between AA Springfield and AAA Memphis.  He also has a 2-1 record with a 5.47 ERA at the major league level.  He should battle for a rotation spot next year.  If he doesn't earn a spot in the rotation, he could become a late-inning guy in the bullpen.

3.  Kolten Wong

Although he hasn't had much success at the major league level (.151/.196/.170 in 53 at bats), Wong looked pretty impressive at Memphis, hitting .303/.369/.466 with 10 homers and 20 stolen bases.  It will be interesting to see how the Cardinals sort out the David Freese/Kolten Wong/Matt Carpenter logjam at second and third in the offseason.

4.  Stephen Piscotty

The Cardinals' "other" compensation pick in 2012 for losing Albert Pujols (Michael Wacha being the first), Piscotty put up some nice numbers in his first full season in the minors.  He hit .295/.355/.464 with 15 homers and 11 stolen bases and finished the year at AA Springfield.  He could earn a September callup in 2014 and be in the outfield mix come 2015.

5.  John Gast

One of the Cardinals less-heralded prospects, Gast was dominant at AAA Memphis to start the year.  He posted an obscene 1.16 ERA in 7 starts before earning a promotion to St. Louis.  He made just 3 starts with the Cards, going 2-0 with a 5.11 ERA, before a shoulder injury ended his season.  Its unclear if he'll be ready for the start of the 2014 season, but he should be a factor at the major league level before the year is through.

6.  Rob Kaminsky

I had a hard time choosing between Kaminsky and fellow 2013 first-rounder Marco Gonzalez for this spot, but eventually went with Kaminsky.  While Gonzalez has a higher floor than Kaminsky, Kaminsky has more upside and he showed off those skills in the rookie league striking out 28 batters in just 22 innings.  As a high schooler, he will likely move slowly through the Cardinals system and may not make the big leagues until 2016 (at the earliest).

7.  Mike O'Neill

He may not be a "sexy" prospect, but O'Neill is one of my personal favorites.  While he does not have much power (just 3 homers in 341 games) and his speed is just average, O'Neill has arguably the best "eye" in the Cardinals farm system.  This year he put up an incredible 91/37 BB/K ratio while hitting .314/.424/.369 between Springfield and Memphis.  His .431 OBP at Springfield was second only to Oakland A's "moneyball" prospect Anthony Aliotti (.452).  He should earn at least a bench role with the Cardinals at some point in 2014.

Is Trevor Rosenthal now pigeonholed as a reliever?

Bernie Miklasz had an interesting article today discussing the possibility of the Cardinals trading for Cliff Lee (something that I already discussed here).  While an interesting analysis and one that reached the same conclusion as I did (we don't need Lee), what really caught my eye was his discussion of the 2014 starting pitching logjam.

Here's what Bernie had to say about the Cardinals glut of starting pitching for 2014:

Looking beyond 2013, Lee could slide into the Westbrook slot for 2014 because Westbrook becomes a free agent after this year. But with Lee in the mix, that would still leave the Cardinals with Wainwright, Lee, Lynn, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, Kelly. Let's not leave Seth Maness off the list; the Cardinals like him a lot. And there’s also Jaime Garcia, who should rehab his rotator cuff in time to pitch at some point in 2014. You can throw Lyons into the mix, too. And other potential starters will likely emerge from the system. We’ve already mentioned at least nine or 10 starting-pitcher entries for 2014 and beyond.

Yes, he mentioned 9 or 10 starting pitchers, but nowhere does he mention Trevor Rosenthal.

Is it already a forgone conclusion that Rosenthal will remain a reliever for 2014 and beyond?

Heading into this spring, there was suppose to be a 3-man battle for the 5th starter spot between Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal.  However, Rosenthal was only given a token chance, as he was only given one start before he was moved to the bullpen.

Next spring, with Jake Westbrook likely becoming a free agent and Jaime Garcia's availability at the start of the season up in the air, there will likely be two spots open.  Will Rosenthal even be part of that battle?

It seems unlikely, as the Cardinals should have Michael Wacha, John Gast, Carlos Martinez, Joe Kelly, Seth Maness and Tyler Lyons all battling for those two spots, making the need to use Rosenthal as a starter uneccessary.

Normally I'm opposed to relegating a top arm to the bullpen when he can be much more valuable as a starting pitcher.  However, in this case, it probably makes the most sense.  Edward Mujica will likely be gone via free agency and with the struggles of Mitchell Boggs and Jason Motte recovering from Tommy John surgery, the Cardinals will likely need Rosenthal to be the 9th inning guy.

It just would have been nice if he had been given a chance as a starter first, because now we'll never know what we might be missing.

Injuries have Cardinals shifting focus from bullpen to rotation

After spending over a month trying to sort out their bullpen, the Cardinals now face new problems with a starting rotation that has been beset by injuries.

The bullpen issues stemmed from an season-ending injury to closer Jason Motte, which caused bullpen roles to shift--a shift that some, like Mitchell Boggs, were not ready for.   The Cardinals solved their problems by shifting Edward Mujica to closer and calling up Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness to shore up the back end of the pen.

Now, a rash of injuries to the Cardinals rotation has the Cardinals scrambling again.

First, Jake Westbrook went on the DL with an elbow injury.  Then Jaime Garcia was lost for the season with a shoulder injury.  As if that wasn't enough, Westbrook's replacement, John Gast, was removed from his last start with shoulder tightness.

Thus, the Cardinals are making changes on the fly again.

First, Michael Wacha, the Cardinals best pitching prospect still in the minors, was pulled from his start Monday and is probably option #1 to replace Gast in the rotation.  Nothing has been announced yet and, as Bernie Miklasz points out, there are still reasons why the Cardinals wouldn't call on Wacha, but it appears that he is likely replacement for Gast.

In addition, the Cardinals have sent Carlos Martinez down to AAA to stretch him out as a starter again.  With all the injuries to starting pitching, the Cardinals now need Martinez as a starter more than they do as a (little used) reliever.  While it probably won't take him long to ramp up, Martinez still has work to do on his secondary pitches before he can be considered for a starting role.

Finally, Victor Marte was recalled to fill Martinez' role in the pen.  Marte had a 4.91 ERA in 40.1 IP last year for the Cardinals, but considering that Martinez only pitched 9.1 innings in the 21 days he was up with the club, its unlikely that Marte will be used in high leverage situations.

So the Cards are shuffling the deck again and the fans are hoping that the magic continues.

John Gast pulled after facing 6 hitters with shoulder injury (and other bad news). Is it Michael Wacha time now?

When it rains, it pours.

According to Jennifer Langosch, the Cardinals pitching staff took another hit tonight when John Gast had to leave the game, after facing just 6 hitters, due to shoulder tightness.

As if that wasn't enough, Jennifer Langosch also reported that Jake Westbrook will likely get a second opinion on his ailing shoulder next week, most likely with Dr. James Andrews.  That's never a good sign.

Finally, to top it off, Jennifer reported that the Cardinals are "backing off" Chris Carpenter's throwing program as he didn't feel as good after his last bullpen session. 

With Gast likely heading to the DL, Westbrook likely needing longer to rehab his elbow and Carpenter likely needing more time for his comeback, it appears that the Cardinals may have no other choice than to turn to Michael Wacha. 

If Gast's injury is short term in nature, the Cards may be able to make due with someone like Joe Kelly or Seth Maness filling in for a start or two.  But, if he is going to be out for an extended period of time, the Cardinals with need a more long-term solution and Wacha would be the logical choice.

The service time clock is obviously still a factor, but its not the only factor in these decisions.  When you're a team contending for a division title, you've got to put the players on the field that give you the best chance to win.

For now, all we can do is wait for a prognosis on Gast and see what happens next.

Where would Cardinals be without their rookie pitchers?

Beset by injuries, the Cardinals have had to turn to the farm system early and often this year.

Normally, when you're dealing with young and unproven players, the results are at best mixed.  However, so far the Cardinals rookies have come through.  The latest example being Tyler Lyons, who started for the Cardinals last night and hurled 7 innings while allowing only 1 run.

Although Matt Adams and Pete Kozma have helped the Cardinals offense, the biggest impact that the rookies have had is on the pitching staff.  So far this season, the Cardinals have utilized 6 rookie pitchers, including 3 starters and 3 relievers.

The rookie starters, led by Shelby Miller and recently joined by John Gast and Tyler Lyons, have gone 8-3 with a 2.16 ERA and 74 K's across 75 innings. 

The relievers, led by Trevor Rosenthal along with Carlos Martinez and Seth Maness, have posted a 2.83 ERA with 45 K's in 38 innings.

This gives the rookie pitchers an overall record of 11-3 and a 2.38 ERA in 113 innings. 

Not too shabby.

Better still, the Cardinals have yet to utilize their top pitching prospect, Michael Wacha, thereby keeping his service clock from ticking.

Its nice to be able to tap into your farm system and get quality results and it is a big part of the reason the Cardinals are in first place in the NL Central with a 30-16 record.

The Cards rookies may still take some lumps this year, as teams get a book on them, and when that happens, we'll see who can adjust and who cannot.  But, so far, I like what I have seen.

Shoulder issues plague Jaime Garcia again. Will Michael Wacha get the call?

Perhaps the Cardinals could use Chris Carpenter in the rotation after all?

Just when you thought the Cardinals pitching staff was chugging along and nothing could stop them, they lose two pitchers in less than a week. 

Nearly a week after placing Jake Westbrook on the DL with elbow inflamation, Jaime Garcia was put on the DL today with a left shoulder impingment.  Mitchell Boggs was called up to replace him on the active roster.

This is the same injury that kept Garcia out for two months last year and the Cards fear it could be worse this time around, possibly requiring surgery.

John Gast is currently filling in for Westbrook in the rotation as Jake is expected to miss at least 3 starts. 

With Garcia joining him on the DL, speculation has already begun as to who will make his next start on Wednesday. 

Here are the leading candidates:

Joe Kelly

While Kelly filled in admirably last year while Garcia was on the DL, he has worked primarily in relief this season and would need to be stretched out.  So, if the Cards wanted to go with Kelly, they would still need someone else to make the start on Wednesday.

Seth Maness

Maness started the season in the rotation at AAA Memphis and has worked in long relief since being called up on April 29th.  He's not too far removed from starting to probably go 4 or 5 innings and he has certainly pitched well during his brief time in the majors.

Carlos Martinez

Like Maness, Martinez was called up on April 29th.  However, he has only worked no more than one inning at a time and would probably need to be stretched out again.  With the recent injuries, it seems more likely that he will be sent down to AAA to be stretched out as a starter again.

Michael Wacha

This is what probably every Cardinal fan is hoping for.  After dominating during spring training, Wacha has been excellent at AAA with a 4-0 record and 1.89 ERA.  Cardinals fans want to see what he can do against major league pitching and he just might get his chance.

Prediction

Bascially, I think the Cards have two options for Wednesday, go with a "start-by-committee" approach with Kelly and Maness splitting the first 6 innings of the game or go with Wacha.


The start-by-committee approach is not the ideal solution, as it can tax the bullpen and it certainly isn't a long-term solution.  Wacha might be the best bet, as he should only be needed for 2-3 starts before Westbrook returns.

I think the Wacha will get the call and that Martinez will be sent down to AAA to be stretched out again and give the Cardinals more depth at starter.  Wacha's last start was on May 16th, so keep an eye on Memphis' May 21st game, as that would be his next scheduled start.  If he doesn't make that start, chances are he's getting the call.

Chris Carpenter attempting another comback as starter. But who would he replace in the rotation?

In case you haven't heard by now, Chris Carpenter is attempting to make another comeback from the shoulder issues that have plague him the last two years. 

Initially it was reported that the Cardinals were hoping that Carpenter could join the bullpen at some point this season.  However, recent reports indicate that he is conditioning himself to be a starter.

While its great to see him making a comeback and I wish him all the best, I have a hard time finding a spot for him in a starting rotation that is currently the best in baseball with a 2.38 ERA.  But if the Cardinals do decide to insert Carpenter back into the rotation, who might he replace?

Here are the possibilities:

Jake Westbrook

Despite a 1.62 ERA, Westbrook has been the least dominant starter on the team, with just 4.4 K/9 for the season.  He has also allowed 4.2 BB/9.  His saving grace is that he induces a ton of groundball outs, with a 2.30 GO/AO ratio. 

Westbrook is currently on the DL with an elbow injury, but it is not considered serious.  However, if he has any setbacks, Carpenter could eventually step in for him.

Lance Lynn

Lynn has adjusted well to his new weight.  He has allowed just 33 hits in 50 innings while striking out 54.  It remains to be seen how he holds up over the course of the long season, as the main reason the Cards wanted him to lose the weight was because he struggled in the second half last year. 

If he struggles again during the second half of this year, then I could see Carpenter taking over his rotation spot, with Lynn moving to the bullpen.

Jaime Garcia

Again, there is nothing about the way Garcia is currently pitching that would make one think he should be removed from the starting rotation.  He has a 2.88 ERA and a 38/14 K/BB ratio.  He also has been inducing groundouts at a higher rate than Westbrook, with a 2.86 GO/AO ratio.

However, after a shoulder injury knocked him out during the middle of last year, there are concerns that the shoulder issues could return.  Carpenter would be a logical replacement for him if that should happen.

Prediction

Obviously, there are a lot of "ifs" in the above scenarios, but nothing that currently suggests that any of the above starters should be removed from the rotation.  Even if one of the above scenarios did occur, would the Cardinals take a chance on Carpenter, when his shoulder has not shown the ability to hold up under starting conditions? 

I don't think so.  The more likely scenario is that the Cards will use Carpenter out of the pen, and even then they will treat him with kid gloves (e.g. no back-to-back appearances, no more than one inning at a time).  If a need for a starter arises, John Gast or Michael Wacha would likely get the call.

So, while it would be nice to see Carpenter return as a starter, as he has proven in the past to be a big game pitcher, I just don't see him cracking the current rotation.

Who will be the next top prospect to get the call for the Cardinals?

A little over a month into the season, the Cardinals have already had to call upon their deep minor league talent to help out at the major league level.  The Cards recently called up Carlos Martinez (#3 on the Cardinals prospect list, per Baseball America) and Seth Maness (#23) to help shore up their bullpen. 

Who of the Cardinals top prospects might we see next?  There are several options to consider.

John Gast

Gast has been dealing at AAA Memphis.  The former 6th round pick has allowed just one earned run in 34.2 IP.  He may not have the stuff of some of the Cardinals other top pitching prospects, but he seems to know how to make the best of what he's got.  Gast could get the call should one of the Cards starters go down with an injury.

Michael Wacha

After a dominating spring with the Cardinals, Wacha has continued to impress with a 1.82 ERA in 34.2 IP at AAA.  The Cards #6 prospect may not have as good of number as Gast, but he has a higher upside.  Like Gast, he could get the call if a starter is injured.

Oscar Tavares

Taveras is hitting .303/.351/.462 at AAA Memphis.  The Cards top prospect impressed during the spring, so much so that many thought he might break camp with the big club.  However, with the emergence of Matt Adams, the need for Taveras is not so great.


Kolten Wong

Considered the Cardinals second baseman of the future, Wong is hitting .292/.314/.408 for Memphis.  The Cardinals #5 prospect should get a look at some point this season, but for now it appears that the Cards are content with their offensive/defensive platoon of Matt Carpenter and Daniel Descalso.

Prediction

Overall, its rare that a starting rotation for a team remains intact for the whole year.  Usually a pitcher will suffer some kind of injury, whether it be a hamstring strain, oblique strain or even just a blister.  Thus, if I were a betting man, I would think the one of either John Gast or Michael Wacha will be the first to get the call and if I had to pick one of the two, I think Wacha would be the first to get the call.

With bullpen struggling, Cardinals are starting to consider other (internal) options.

With the Cardinals closer questions apparently being answered by Edward Mujica, who has converted all 3 of his save chances, the Cards are still looking to shore up the rest of their bullpen.

As of today, the Cardinals have a bullpen ERA of 5.37, last in the majors.  Most of this can be attributed to Mitchell Boggs, who struggled when placed in the closer role and has yet to sort things out.  If you remove his 12.46 ERA in 8.2 IP, the Cardinals bullpen ERA is a more respectable 3.74. 

However, the problem is that Boggs was expected to play a major role in the Cards pen.  He was the main setup guy last season and, before Jason Motte's injury, he was expected to fill that role again this year. 

With his struggles, Trevor Rosenthal has had to step up into the setup role, a role that he finally appears to be getting use to.  After, blowing two saves a little over a week into the season, Rosenthal has managed 5 holds since then.  He is still trying to find himself, as he hasn't been as dominant as he was last year (15 hits allowed in 11.2 IP), but he seems to be acclimating to his new role.

But, with Mujica moved to the closer role and Rosenthal handling the 8th innning duties, the Cards are still looking for a 7th inning guy.  Boggs could be that guy, if he gets things sorted out, but if he doesn't, the Cardinals will look at other options.

One such option, as Bernie Miklasz points out, it to swap the roles of Joe Kelly and Boggs, make Kelly the 7th inning setup guy and move Boggs to the long-relief role.  This would give Boggs time to sort out his issues while giving Kelly a chance to show what he can do in a more prominent role. 

Another option that Miklasz discussed would be to move Lance Lynn to the pen and call up a starter from AAA (Michael Wacha or John Gast).  However, the Cardinals starters have been just fine, posting a 2.38 ERA (tops in the majors), so its unlikely that Mike Matheny would want to mess with his rotation.  If it ain't broke....

Finally, the Cardinals could call up Carlos Martinez to fill a setup role.  Joe Strauss speculated that this could happen in a recent interview.  Martinez has closer type stuff, but just recently made his first start of the minor league season after arriving in the U.S. late due to visa issues. 

My feeling is that the Cardinals should try Kelly in a setup role and move Boggs to long relief.  I think this is the best option at the current time, as it gives Boggs time to sort out his issues while giving Kelly a bigger role.  If things don't work out, then Plan B should be to give Carlos Martinez a try.

In any case, there is still work to be done to sort this all out.  The Cardinals could always shock the world and pull off a trade. Strauss tweeted recently of a possible April/May trade (please, anyone but Carlos Marmol!!!).  But, until that happens, the Cards will have to make due with what they've got.