We're only about two weeks into the Hot Stove league and the trade rumors are already heating up for the Cardinals. Two areas that appear to be on the front burner are the quest for a shortstop and whether or not to trade David Freese.
Here's a look at the rumors surrounding those two areas:
The Quest for a Shortstop
John Mozeliak made it known shortly after the end of the season that he was willing to trade one of his young starting pitchers for a "young controllable shortstop", per Jim Bowden, and its been rumored that Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller are on the block.
The Cardinals have already checked in on Texas' Elvis Andrus and Jurickson Profar, who are both on the block (along with Ian Kinsler) and reportedly talked with the Rockies about Troy Tulowitzki during the GM/owner meetings (per Jeff Passan of Yahoo Sports).
The Rockies, apparently not liking what the Cardinals had to offer, were quick to say that they were not trading Tulowitzki, according to John Heyman. Perhaps this is just a way to gain leverage and drive up Tulo's price or they are dead serious. In any case, it appears that Tulowitzki is off the table, for now.
Of course, if the asking price for Tulowitzki is as high as was suggested by Ken Rosenthal of Fox Sports (Allen Craig, Shelby Miller AND Trevor Rosenthal), then its probably for the best.
The Cardinals then apparently turned their attention to Oakland's Jed Lowrie, according to Peter Gammons. However, A's manager Bob Melvin put the kibosh on that rumor saying that "Maybe [the Cardinals] made a call and inquired about him ... we’re not looking to move Jed Lowrie."
The Orioles then decided to jump into the fray and see if the Cardinals were overspend for a shortstop by offering J.J. Hardy for Shelby Miller. They were promptly turned down, much to the relief of Cardinals fans everywhere.
So, where does that leave us?
Basically, it appears that only Hardy and one of Andrus or Profar are on the market at this point. Perhaps the Cardinals could pry away Tulowitzki or Lowrie, if they overpay, but I don't see that happening. As Jennifer Langosch points out, the Cardinals are unlikely to mortgage the farm for a shortstop.
What to do with David Freese?
Throughout the 2013 season, there was much speculation as to what will become of David Freese, sub par years have a way of raising those questions.
Bernie Miklasz posted a nice article recently going through the various options that the Cardinals have concerning Freese, so I won't regurgitate those here, however, it basically boils down to holding onto him or trading him.
The Yankees have talked to the Cardinals about Freese as a fallback for PED dispenser Alex Rodriguez, according to Mark Feinsand of the New York Daily News, but there does not appear to be any traction in those talks, as of now.
Personally, I would like to see the Cardinals hold on to Freese. As I pointed out in my article the other day, Freese hits lefties well and would be at minimum a platoon partner with Kolten Wong and a valuable bat off the bench.
That pretty much catches us up-to-date on the latest Cardinals rumors. I will continue to report on the latest rumors as they pop up.
Friday, November 15, 2013
Wednesday, November 13, 2013
How can the Cardinals improve their lineup against lefthanders?
Its no secret that the Cardinals struggled against left handed pitchers in 2013. As a team, the Cards hit just .238/.301/.371 against southpaws and their .672 OPS against lefties was 13th in the NL. This was highlighted even more in the postseason, when the Cards hit a combined .211/.268/.295 (.563 OPS) against lefties, including two losses in the World Series against Jon Lester, who allowed only 1 run against the Cardinals in 15.1 innings.
Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties. Here are my suggestions for doing just that:
1. Hold on to David Freese
The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers. With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).
However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.
They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench. Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.
He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.
2. Find a better shortstop
This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on. The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.
Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team. If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.
The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.
Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:
You cannot get much more consistent than that.
3. Add a righthanded OF to the bench
Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013. The other was Jon Jay.
Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties. Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties. However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.
Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).
Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.
Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill. Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay.
All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch. In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap. Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries. Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.
Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.
With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:
Lineup vs Righties
Its pretty obvious that the Cardinals need to make some adjustments to their roster in order to fare better against lefties. Here are my suggestions for doing just that:
1. Hold on to David Freese
The much maligned Freese had a down year in 2013, hitting just .262/.340/.381 with 9 homers, after a 2012 campaign which saw him hit .293/.372/.467 with 20 homers. With Freese eligible for arbitration this year and projected to earn $4.4 million, per MLB Trade Rumors, many are saying the Cardinals should trade Freese and install Kolten Wong as the everyday second baseman (thereby moving Matt Carpenter back to his natural position at third).
However, I think the Cardinals would be wise to hold on to Freese.
They can make Freese a platoon partner with lefty Wong and help strengthen a pretty weak bench. Essentially, Freese would be filling the role that Ty Wigginton was suppose to for just about $2 million more.
He would give the Cardinals some much needed pop off the bench and be a fallback should Wong struggle.
2. Find a better shortstop
This is something the Cardinals are already working diligently on. The Cardinals desperately need to upgrade offensively over Pete Kozma at short.
Kozma hit just .217/.275/.273 on the season, but he was even worse against lefties, hitting just .184/.280/.256, by far the worst on the team. If the Cards want to improve against lefties, replacing Kozma would go a long way towards that goal.
The guy on the top of my list to replace Kozma would be Elvis Andrus.
Not only would provide the Cardinals with a bona fide leadoff man and some much needed speed, but look at these lefty/righty splits:
| I | Split | ||||
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| vs RHP as RHB | .275 | .337 | .347 | .684 | |
| vs LHP as RHB | .273 | .346 | .352 | .698 |
3. Add a righthanded OF to the bench
Kozma was just one of two Cardinals regulars who struggled against lefties in 2013. The other was Jon Jay.
Jay hit just .220/.306/.314 against southpaws, but hit .291/.363/.386 against righties. Maybe 2013 was an aberration for Jay, as he is a career .269/.343/.346 hitter against lefties. However, I do not want to take that chance, not when there's an opportunity for improvement.
Jay got most of the starts against lefties as the Cardinals alternative, Shane Robinson, wasn't much better (.228/.319/.278 against lefties in 2013).
Thus, the Cardinals need to find an upgrade over Robinson for their 4th outfielder/backup center fielder.
Thankfully, this year's free agent crop offers 3 guys who can fill the bill. Rajai Davis (.294/.354/.425), Franklin Gutierrez (.287/.344/.474) and Reed Johnson (.311/.366/.456) all hit lefties very well and would fit nicely in a platoon with Jay.
All are capable of playing center field, but Davis is probably the best defender of the bunch. In addition, all of them should be relatively cheap. Gutierrez made $7 million last year, but will likely have to take a hefty pay cut, as he amassed just 295 at bats over the last two years due to injuries. Davis made just $2.5 million in 2013 and Johnson made just $1.6 million, so neither of them will break the bank.
Personally, I would like to see the Cards sign Davis.
With these moves, here's how the Cardinals lineup and bench could stack up:
Lineup vs Righties
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Matt Carpenter, 3B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Jon Jay, CF
- Kolten Wong, 2B
- David Freese
- Rajai Davis
- Daniel Descalso
- Shane Robinson
- Tony Cruz
- Elvis Andrus, SS
- Matt Carpenter, 2B
- Matt Holliday, LF
- Allen Craig, RF
- Yadier Molina, C
- David Freese, 3B
- Matt Adams, 1B
- Rajai Davis, CF
- Kolten Wong
- Jon Jay
- Daniel Descalso
- Shane Robinson
- Tony Cruz
Thursday, November 7, 2013
Questions abound as Hot Stove League heats up for Cardinals
With the lackluster finish to the 2013 World Series, at least as far as Cardinals fans are concerned, everyone's attention now turns to the Hot Stove League.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
The Cards, who appeared in the 4th World Series over the last decade, but fell short for a second time against the Red Sox, will look to upgrade their team to reach their ultimate goal. Along the way, GM John Mozeliak, Manager Mike Matheny and the rest of the Cardinals brass will have to answer some key personnel questions:
1. Should the Cardinals resign Carlos Beltran?
Although he has already filed for free agency and appears to be looking for a 3-year deal, most likely in the AL, Cardinals GM John Mozeliak is not closing any doors, according to Derrick Goold.
The Cards have already made Beltran a qualifying offer, guaranteeing themselves at least a supplemental first round pick in next year's draft.
It might make sense for the Cardinals to bring Beltran back on a 1-year deal, but any more than that and the Cards should pass.
2. Who will man the outfield and first base?
Even if Beltran is not resigned, the Cardinals will still have a bit of a logjam in the outfield and at first base. The Cardinals have Matt Adams and Allen Craig as potential first basemen. If the Cardinals decide to put Adams at first and shift Craig to right to replace Beltran, there is still Oscar Taveras lurking at AAA.
There has been some talk of having Taveras play center field next season, as Jon Jay had an off year and the Cards may be looking for an upgrade offensively.
Plus, there is Stephen Piscotty, who is tearing up the Arizona Fall League (.338/.385/.437) after a strong season split between A and AA (.295/.355/.464).
3. What should the Cardinals do about second and third?
This was the day 2 question of the UCB Roundtable and you can find all the answers from my fellow Cardinals bloggers at Redbird Rants.
Personally, I think the Cardinals should hold on to David Freese, Kolten Wong and Matt Carpenter, with Carpenter starting everyday, either at second or third, while Frees and Wong form a platoon.
However, the Cards may decide to use Wong or Freese as trade bait as they pursue an upgrade at short this offseason.
4. What do the Cardinals do with all their pitching?
This was another UCB Roundtable question, posed by me and included in this blog. With Jaime Garcia likely to be ready by the start of spring training to go along with incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Joe Kelly and Michael Wacha, as well as prospects Carlos Martinez, John Gast and Tyler Lyons, the Cardinals will have an abundance of pitchers vying for the rotation next year.
This is probably why it was leaked recently that the Cards would consider trading Lynn or Miller for an upgrade at short.
In any case, the Cardinals have to sort out all the pieces to this puzzle before opening day.
5. Can the Cardinals find an upgrade at short?
The Cardinals made due with Pete Kozma, basically out of necessity this season, after Rafael Furcal succumbed to injury this spring. However, Kozma's .217 average and .548 OPS just isn't going to cut it offensively.
While he may be a fine defender, its no secret that the Cards are looking for an upgrade.
The Rangers recently indicated that they are willing to move one of their 3 middle infielders (Elvis Andrus, Jurickson Profar or Ian Kinsler), according to MLB.com's T.R. Sullivan,which certainly should have gotten the Cardinals' attention.
The Cards could create a package around either Lance Lynn or Shelby Miller for one of Andrus or Profar, but will probably not get into a bidding war.
I discussed other trade possibilities recently and there are also free agents Stephen Drew and Johnny Peralta. So, there are options out there.
Overall, the Cardinals have some key decisions to make and it will be interesting to watch the team take shape this offseason.
UCB Roundtable Day 3: The Cardinals 2014 starting rotation
For the United Cardinals Bloggers November project, we are conducting a roundtable discussion taking a look at the 2013 season and what the 2014 season may bring. To follow the Roundtable, be sure check out the United Cardinals Bloggers' website.
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
As Mark said, this leaves Joe Kelly and Lance Lynn out. Do I think
they are able to bring the return that the Cardinals want at shortstop?
No. Thus, given the risk of injuries, especially with Garcia (as most of
you will soon find out, I am not a big fan
of his), I think you hang on to Kelly and Lynn for at least the first
part of the season. Gast, who I do not think will be healthy yet, will
be in Memphis, and Lyons will likely be in the 'pen or shipped out.
Let’s start off with the easy
ones: John Gast had shoulder surgery near the end of July. The initial
reports were unclear as to the timetable for him to get back, but espn.com
reported that it would be 8 to 12 months. If that is the case, then the
earliest he would be able to throw again is right around opening day,
so I expect him to be in Memphis getting stronger and being able to step
in during the middle/late season if injury prompts a need for him.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
Today's question, posed by your truly, was as follows:
With incumbents Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller, Lance Lynn, Michael Wacha, Joe Kelly returning, Jaime Garcia and John Gast likely returning from injury and Carlos Martinez, Tyler Lyons, Seth Maness and even Trevor Rosenthal as possibilities for the starting rotation, who would want in the starting rotation and what would you do with all the leftovers?
Here are the responses from my partners in crime.
Christine Coleman - Aaron Miles' Fastball
So many arms! So few starting slots! Obviously Adam Wainwright,
Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha are in the rotation, and Jaime Garcia
too. Trevor Rosenthal, as John Mozeliak said the other day, is going to
be in the bullpen and Seth Maness was too valuable this season with his
double-play-inducing magic out of the bullpen to give that up.
Despite all that he did this season, I just don't
see Joe Kelly being guaranteed a spot and can see another spring
training competition happening -- probably with the remaining pitchers
you listed here, in John Gast, Carlos Martinez and Tyler Lyons. I really
liked Martinez in that eighth inning role out of the bullpen, though,
and he succeeded there but I can see him more as a starter. Gast seems
headed to Memphis for me. Lyons is intriguing -- perhaps in the bullpen
to begin with, but available as a starter as needed too or if someone
else falters (which of course won't happen, right?)
Mark Tomasik - Retro Simba
Strongest
rotation: Adam Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Carlos
Martinez, Jaime Garcia. Like Wacha, Martinez is a special talent and
needs to start.
Trade material: Lance Lynn or Joe Kelly for a starting shortstop.
Bullpen: Trevor Rosenthal, closer; Lynn or Kelly, 8th inning; Seth Maness, 7th inning; Kevin Siegrist and Randy Choate as left-handed specialists.
Ready in Memphis: Tyler Lyons and John Gast are on-call to replace an injured or faltering starter.
Daniel Solzman, Redbird Rants
I couldn’t agree more. So many arms, not enough spots!
Christine Coleman (follow-up)
In seeing Mark Tomasik's reply, I realized I totally forgot to mention Lance Lynn. And, not surprisingly, that's because I don't see him staying -- trade bait, for sure, hopefully part of a trade to land a quality shortstop.
Joe Schwarz - stlcupofjoe’s Sports Page
In my opinion, you give every single pitcher that wants to start a
chance to do so in Spring Training, and this includes Trevor Rosenthal
and Kevin Siegrist. Will both likely end
up in the bullpen? Yep, but down the road when it comes time to re-sign
them, the Cardinals will have the leverage to say that they at least
gave them a shot to be a starting pitcher. Otherwise, their agents could
use that against the Cardinals saying they
"misused" their client or "didn't allow them to reach their full
potential."
However, this is my starting rotation at this time: Adam
Wainwright, Michael Wacha, Shelby Miller, Jaime Garcia, and Carlos
Martinez. I honestly believe Martinez has the best "stuff" of that group
and has the potential to become
great. Will he succeed in the role as a starting pitcher? That is
yet to be seen, but we will never know until he is given that shot. The
bullpen will always be a solid fallback option for Baby Pedro.
Ben Chambers - The View From Here
This is a great problem to have. The Cardinals have too many
talented starting pitchers and they have to figure out who it’s going to
be in the rotation!
Mo
and Matheny have already said that Rosenthal is coming back as the
closer. This is probably the best move for the team. Motte will be back
next year, but there are too many questions that need to be answered
first: Will he be able to pitch on back-to-back days? Will his stamina
hold all season? Will he have a semi-struggling year like Wainwright did
coming back from Tommy John? Will he still be able to hit 100 on the
mound? There are just too many unknowns at this point. I hope that the
Cardinals give him a shot in 2015 (although I am not sure how much of a
shot he’ll have then, either), but for 2014 he’s needed in the 9th
inning.
So, that leaves: Wainwright, Miller,
Garcia, Lynn, Wacha, Kelly, Martinez, Lyons, and Maness. I think Maness
continues in the bullpen. It’s always nice to have a guy out there who
you can trust to come in the game with runners on in late innings. Even
if he doesn’t get all the double plays next year, every bullpen needs at
least one guy like that. Lynn has been up-and-down both of the last two
years, and I really hope that they put him in the bullpen. He has the
ability to be great, and he’s shown that, but he also has the ability to
lose quite a few in a row, and he’s shown that, too.
Wainwright,
Wacha, and Garcis are the only three that are locks for the rotation.
Wainwright because he is the ace, Wacha because he is so talented, and
he has ice running through his veins. Garcia because he has been a
starter the entire time he’s been with the Cardinals and being a lefty,
it does keep the rotation from being strictly right-handed.
I
expect Lyons to also be in Memphis. He was great his first few starts,
but then he just went downhill. I don’t know why, but maybe the
Cardinals do. Either way, he probably needs a little time to get himself
back on track a little, and Memphis will provide him that opportunity.
Who
gets the last two spots? I think it’s Miller and Martinez. I would
personally like it to be Miller and Kelly. I think Kelly has good stuff,
and he showed it in 2013. He was one of the best pitchers in the second
half last year. Lowest ERAs for the second half of 2013 in the NL:
Kershaw at 1.59, Grienke at 1.85, and Kelly at 1.91. I really like him,
and I think he can be a 15-20 game winner if the Cardinals give him a
chance. Martinez might get the nod over him, but I would be personally
upset if it happens. Kelly currently is the better pitcher. If Martinez
gets the spot, Kelly will go back to being the long man out of the
bullpen. If Kelly gets the spot, I expect Martinez to be in Memphis.
No
matter who actually gets into the rotation, I am excited to see those
arms. The depth that the Cardinals have in starting pitching is unlike
any other team has. I will end with this stipulation: I could see one or
two of those guys being traded to get a SS, and that would change this
quickly, but as of right now, that’s what I think will happen.
John Nagel - CardinalsFarm.com
My rotation would be Wainwright, Miller, Wacha, Martinez, and Garcia as
well. The potential for those five is out of the planet. Joe Kelly is
intriguing, but I think he is near his peak value, but that doesn't mean
I want to trade him. I think he is great in the clubhouse and would be a
great fit in the bullpen.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
What to do with the others.....
Lynn: I
am going to disagree with you all that Lance Lynn does not have that
much trade value. I think people in St. Louis value him a little lower
than those in other MLB cities. If you look at his numbers and take out
the emotion, he has had a couple of solid seasons. I am not saying that
Lynn alone would net Profar or even Starlin Castro, but he could be a
very valuable trade chip. How many other teams would want a perennial 15
game winner?
Rosenthal: Don't let
Mozeliak fool you, Rosenthal will end up the 8th inning guy on one
condition, if Jason Motte is healthy. I know that Mo said he will begin
spring as the closer, but what else should he say? Motte is not
guaranteed to be healthy by then, but i don't think Jason loses his
closing spot due to injury. Wally Pipp may disagree with me.
Maness: As
much as I want Maness to start, the role he played this year was best
for the team, plus there isn't a starting spot for him in St. Louis. He
is one that could be a very solid starter somewhere else, but i am fine
with him as the DP man.
Lyons and Gast: Both begin the season in Memphis with opportunities to fill in at the MLB level.
Daniel Shoptaw - C70 At The Bat
I'd
agree pretty much entirely with what John wrote, but for his comments
on Rosenthal. In my mind, Rosie will be the closer, because by time you
can be comfortable with Motte and his recovery, Rosenthal will already
be entrenched. Given the myriad of issues surrounding a hard-throwing
reliever coming off surgery, including command issues, I can't imagine
that Motte would be anything more than an eighth-inning guy. Should
Rosenthal stumble and Motte look good, they might flip, but I'd be
shocked if Rosenthal doesn't get the first save chance of the year.
That's
a bit off topic, but being that I can't disagree with a rotation of
Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia and Martinez, what else am I going to
say?
Dan Buffa - Dose of Buffa
Being late to the party, I will basically break things down as best as I can without being redundant.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
Maness, Gast, Lyons and Rosenthal aren't in the convo, for various reasons.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
<Strauss'd> intrigue... </Strauss'd>
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
Barring
further injury, my starting rotation out of the listed candidates has
to Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez unless Lance Lynn
finds a way to be not be traded.
Lynn is premium trade material. He has a fine
resume that includes over 30 wins in two seasons and good bullpen work.
He is young and hungry and may need a change of scenery to lower his
pouting potential.
Jaime is making 7 million this year so he needs to
be in the rotation and he is a lefty who can be great when he is on.
Let's hope his feelings are in check.
Joe
Kelly is Mr. Stretch. He can start, relieve, and close and will find
himself in that long arm bullpen spot to begin the season as insurance
in case someone gets hurt. Few can do what he does effectively. Be
solid out of the bullpen and win a lot of starts. His mindset is key
and helps him adjust. I am surprised teams don't target him in a trade
because of his versatility.
Lyons and Gast are Memphis starters until injuries
happen. They performed well in 2013 but won't climb over guys like
Martinez and Kelly for starts, at least not again. These guys are also
trade depth because they proved they can come up to big leagues and
instantly win games. Look for them to be add on's to big deals Mozelaik
keeps up his sleeve.
Trevor Rosenthal is a setup-closer with this team
for a long time. He has the makeup, ability and finish to go into the
ninth and let it rip. We saw it for good when he saved 3 games in the
final week of the season and basically made the Pirates, Dodgers and Red
Sox look stupid for a month. He has a propane heater and a decent
changeup and if he was going to try his hand at starting again, he would
have to redefine that third pitch. I get why he wants to start but at
this point it's futile. Jason Motte will be back but won't be ready to
even compete for the closer role until July. Motte had the surgery in
May of 2013 which means he may not touch a baseball diamond during a
real game until late April/early May. He will find his control and
slowly develop back into that stopper we knew from 2011 and 2012. He
will set up until the Cards really deem it necessary to switch him and
Rosenthal. If Trevor is throwing gas and closing everything, it won't
happen unless Motte is electric. I do think Motte gets back to the
closer role sometime, but too late for Rosenthal to switch back to
starting. Motte makes 6 million this year but needs to get healthy.
Rosenthal may say he would like to start but watching him close in
October I see a man empowered and having a lot of fun. Let's not
believe he is wanting to truly move just yet ladies and gents.
There I go too. Wow. Just like Shoptaw. HA! Must be a Daniel thing.
Waino, Wacha, Garcia, Miller and Martinez for me in early April.
Chris Mallonee - Bird On The Bat 82
If we are answering "who we would want" instead of "who do we think it
will be", then I will go with Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Miller, Lynn as
the Opening Day Starters.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Lynn had a nice turn-around in September and deserves a spot in the opening 2014 rotation in my opinion.
I would keep Kelly, Maness, Siegrist, and Rosenthal in the big-league bullpen as they were such vital pieces in 2013, and Kelly moves into that long-relief role to keep innings load off Wacha and a security net as Garcia gets back up to health. He is also the first inserted into the rotation when the inevitable injury occurs.
Gast, Lyons, and Martinez could start in the Memphis rotation. I don't think that would be a waste of Martinez as he is still so very young and needs to harness his power stuff and learn to go deeper into games. IF Gast is healthy near the start of the season, the Cardinals have three pretty good options for when a starter gets injured, and if 2014 follows the pattern of other years all of these guys will be called on at some point.
Matt Whitener, Cheap Seats Please
Wainwright, Miller and Wacha are the locks, so I won't waste time discussing them and why.
I also don't want to delve too deep into what hasn't happened yet,
such as trades and situations like that. Basically, what it comes down
to is Joe Kelly, Lance Lynn, Jaime Garcia and Carlos Martinez in a
four-corners match, albeit one that is not that difficult to sort out.
Martinez has the best arm of the group (and maybe
the entire team). With the said, I'd like to see him in a year like
Rosenthal, at the end of the pen in some capacity. Motte's status is
uncertain and both Axford and Mujica are gone. Bottomline, the back end
of the bullpen is questionable, and bringing Martinez along there would
be a perfect way for him to gain some Big League experience and expand
his repertoire.
Garcia is purely a starter, and a much needed
left-handed one at that, so he's in there too from the moment he's
ready. All indications say that's spring training as of now, so that
brings the rotation to a four-man group.
For the final spot, I opt with Lance Lynn. He's not
always the popular choice, and surely isn't the most consistent of the
group, however, there are a lot of things that work in his favor. He's
still young, is steadily racking up experienced innings and still has a
great skills package that can develop. He would be as good of a
fourth/fifth starter that any team in the NL would have on their side.
So, if the Cardinals can break camp (for the first time since 2010) with a completely healthy rotation, I'd like to see a Wainwright, Miller, Garcia, Wacha, Lynn (in that order) mix take to the mound.
Nick Waeltz - Pitchers Hit Eighth
Who I would want: Wainwright, Wacha, Miller, Garcia, Martinez
Who I think it will be: Wainwright, Wacha, Garcia, Martinez, Kelly
Josh Gilliam, Pitchers Hit Eighth
I've given this way more thought than I should,
and the trio at the back-end keeps changing by the hour. Most of us
know it really doesn't matter who starts the season in the rotation,
however, the changing of the guard could be 2014.
I'm sticking with Wainwright and Garcia to anchor the veteran portion of the starting five and then throwing darts after Wacha. The job Kelly did down the stretch while still adjusting to various roles gives him the nod as possibly the best #5 starter in the National League. That leaves a toss-up for the 3-4 spot between Miller and Lynn, both who could be former Cardinals as Nick pointed out.
My head says Lynn should be traded, but my heart wonders if the Miller/Kelly show may be coming to an end. Maybe a coin flip will solve it, but I hope the only uniform Shelby wears is the BOB for many years to come.
Finally, my thoughts
The Cardinals have an abundance of riches with a stockpile of young arms to choose from for their starting rotation. The only locks I see for the 2014 rotation are Adam Wainwright, Shelby Miller and Michael Wacha.
Jaime Garcia should grab the 4th slot, but only if he proves to be healthy, which, when dealing with shoulder injuries, particularly labrum tears, is never a sure thing.
Lance Lynn will probably end up getting traded as part of a package for a shortstop, as he is in desperate need of a change in scenery.
That leaves Joe Kelly and Carlos Martinez to battle it out for the 5th spot. Kelly will probably be wondering what he has to do to prove he is a major league starter, especially after going 13-9 with a 3.03 ERA in 31 starts over the last two seasons. However, just like Shelby Miller did this spring, I see Martinez beating Kelly out for the last spot, leaving Kelly to return to his long relief role.
John Gast and Tyler Lyons will return to Memphis to provide depth and Seth Maness will return to the bullpen.
Trevor Rosenthal will start the season as the Cardinals closer and never look back, even when Jason Motte returns. After his dominant display at the end of the season and in the postseason, I just don't see him relinquishing the closer role.
Overall, its a good problem to have and one that will take the Cardinals some time to sort out both during the offseason and next spring.
Monday, November 4, 2013
Cardinals put Lance Lynn and/or Shelby Miller on the block? Who might they get in return?
The Hot Stove league has barely begun and already the Cardinals have created a stir by allegedly placing Lance Lynn and Shelby Miller on the block in their quest for a shortstop.
According to Joe Strauss, the Cardinals may want to make room for either Carlos Martinez or Trevor Rosenthal in the starting rotation and trading either Lynn or Miller will free up a spot for one of those two while also addressing their other area of need (i.e. shortstop).
The only question is what shortstop is available that the Cardinals could go after?
Here are some possibilities:
Texas: Elvis Andrus/Jurickson Profar
There was much discussion around the July trade deadline of a Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar trade. Both are top prospects for their respective teams, but it seemed unlikely that either would be moved. But might Texas be tempted to move Profar if Shelby Miller was the bait?
As for Andrus, Texas just signed him to a 8-year, $120 million extension back in April, which locks him up through 2023, although he can opt out after the 2018 or 2019 seasons. Its hard to see the Rangers trading him so soon after the extension, but the contract only contains a limited no-trade clause, in which he can only block trades to 10 teams beginning in 2016, so it is not out of the question.
The Rangers could move Andrus to make room for Profar at short and, if so, a trade involving Lynn for Andrus might make sense.
Arizona: Didi Gregorius/Chris Owings
Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have two quality shortstops and only once place to put them. Owings probably has the higher offensive upside, while Gregorius is generally considered the better defender.
On the surface, Gregorius had a decent rookie season, hitting .252/.332/.373 with a 94 OPS+, however it was really a tale of two halves. Gregorius had a .744 OPS in the first half of the season, but only .628 in the second half, which was only a bit higher than Pete Kozma's .548 OPS for the year.
Owings hit .330/.359/.482 in AAA Reno this year (granted, it was the offensive minded PCL) and is a career .291/.320/.441 hitter in the minors. He hit .291 in 55 at bats with Arizona and looks to be major league ready.
I would not give up Shelby Miller for either of these two and would probably only give up Lynn for Owings, as Gregorius does not seem to be much of an upgrade.
Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki
Another rumor that has been floating around a while is the Cardinals making a play for the Rockies Tulowitzki. While he is certainly an excellent hitter, with a career line of .295/.367/.509 and an above average defender, there are some concerns as well.
For one, he is owed $134 million over the next 7 years, including a $4 million buyout for 2021. While the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility, I'm not sure they want to commit that much to one player.
In addition, Tulo has been injury prone, especially the last two years, in which he only played 47 games in 2012 and 121 in 2013. For his career, he's only averaged 120 games per season.
Finally, to get a guy like Tolowitzki, the Cardinals would like have to give up Miller and then some, which might be too steep a price.
Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro/Junior Lake
The Cubs may be getting fed up with Castro, who, after signing a 7-year, $60 million extension in August 2012, proceeded to go out and have the worst year of his career in 2013, hitting just .245 with a .631 OPS.
The Cubs could decide to sell low on Castro and move Lake, a converted shortstop, back to short for one season, until uber-prospect Javier Baez is ready to take over the reigns.
Despite his 2013 troubles, Castro is still talented and would be an upgrade over Kozma, at least offensively, and might just need a change of scenery.
Still, I wouldn't give up any more than Lynn for him.
Overall, there are some good options out there, as well as some I may have overlooked (such as J.J. Hardy/Manny Machado in Baltimore or Asdrubal Cabrera/Francisco Lindor in Cleveland), but, as with most up-the-middle guys, the price could end up being higher than the Cardinals are willing to pay.
In any case, its something to keep an eye on as the Hot Stove heats up.
According to Joe Strauss, the Cardinals may want to make room for either Carlos Martinez or Trevor Rosenthal in the starting rotation and trading either Lynn or Miller will free up a spot for one of those two while also addressing their other area of need (i.e. shortstop).
The only question is what shortstop is available that the Cardinals could go after?
Here are some possibilities:
Texas: Elvis Andrus/Jurickson Profar
There was much discussion around the July trade deadline of a Oscar Taveras for Jurickson Profar trade. Both are top prospects for their respective teams, but it seemed unlikely that either would be moved. But might Texas be tempted to move Profar if Shelby Miller was the bait?
As for Andrus, Texas just signed him to a 8-year, $120 million extension back in April, which locks him up through 2023, although he can opt out after the 2018 or 2019 seasons. Its hard to see the Rangers trading him so soon after the extension, but the contract only contains a limited no-trade clause, in which he can only block trades to 10 teams beginning in 2016, so it is not out of the question.
The Rangers could move Andrus to make room for Profar at short and, if so, a trade involving Lynn for Andrus might make sense.
Arizona: Didi Gregorius/Chris Owings
Like the Rangers, the Diamondbacks have two quality shortstops and only once place to put them. Owings probably has the higher offensive upside, while Gregorius is generally considered the better defender.
On the surface, Gregorius had a decent rookie season, hitting .252/.332/.373 with a 94 OPS+, however it was really a tale of two halves. Gregorius had a .744 OPS in the first half of the season, but only .628 in the second half, which was only a bit higher than Pete Kozma's .548 OPS for the year.
Owings hit .330/.359/.482 in AAA Reno this year (granted, it was the offensive minded PCL) and is a career .291/.320/.441 hitter in the minors. He hit .291 in 55 at bats with Arizona and looks to be major league ready.
I would not give up Shelby Miller for either of these two and would probably only give up Lynn for Owings, as Gregorius does not seem to be much of an upgrade.
Colorado: Troy Tulowitzki
Another rumor that has been floating around a while is the Cardinals making a play for the Rockies Tulowitzki. While he is certainly an excellent hitter, with a career line of .295/.367/.509 and an above average defender, there are some concerns as well.
For one, he is owed $134 million over the next 7 years, including a $4 million buyout for 2021. While the Cardinals have some payroll flexibility, I'm not sure they want to commit that much to one player.
In addition, Tulo has been injury prone, especially the last two years, in which he only played 47 games in 2012 and 121 in 2013. For his career, he's only averaged 120 games per season.
Finally, to get a guy like Tolowitzki, the Cardinals would like have to give up Miller and then some, which might be too steep a price.
Chicago Cubs: Starlin Castro/Junior Lake
The Cubs may be getting fed up with Castro, who, after signing a 7-year, $60 million extension in August 2012, proceeded to go out and have the worst year of his career in 2013, hitting just .245 with a .631 OPS.
The Cubs could decide to sell low on Castro and move Lake, a converted shortstop, back to short for one season, until uber-prospect Javier Baez is ready to take over the reigns.
Despite his 2013 troubles, Castro is still talented and would be an upgrade over Kozma, at least offensively, and might just need a change of scenery.
Still, I wouldn't give up any more than Lynn for him.
Overall, there are some good options out there, as well as some I may have overlooked (such as J.J. Hardy/Manny Machado in Baltimore or Asdrubal Cabrera/Francisco Lindor in Cleveland), but, as with most up-the-middle guys, the price could end up being higher than the Cardinals are willing to pay.
In any case, its something to keep an eye on as the Hot Stove heats up.
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