The Cardinals made another big splash today by finalizing a deal to sign lefty reliever Andrew Miller. Per Ken Rosenthal, the deal is for two years and $25 million with an option for 2021 that vests if Miller pitches in 110 games between 2019 and 2020.
According to Jeff Jones, when discussing Miller's role with the team, John Mozeliak said that "we see this as someone who will be used in high leverage situations...when you talk about role, there will be some flexibility in that."
So, even though Miller has served as closer before, saving 36 games for the Yankees in 2015, he is not guaranteed to be the closer for the Cards in 2019. The fact that the deal does not include incentives for games finished is another indication that neither the team nor Miller expect him to be the closer or at least not full time.
In early November, Derrick Goold indicated that the Cards see Jordan Hicks as a potential closer in the not-to-distant future. In addition, its been hinted that star prospect Alex Reyes could work out of the pen next year, to help limit his innings after an injury plagued season. He too has closer-worthy stuff.
So, who will emerge as the closer in 2019?
My (somewhat) educated guess is that the Cardinals will use a combination of all three.
From the Tampa Bay Rays using "openers" (relief pitchers used to get the first several outs in a game), to starters lasting fewer innings due to the risks associated with facing a lineup for a third time in a game, the world of relief pitchers is constantly evolving.
No longer are managers just relying on their best pitchers to get the last 3 outs in a game, but they need quality relievers to help bridge the gap from when the starter hands the ball over in the 5th or 6th inning until the end of the game. In addition, closers are often required to get more than just 3 outs.
All of this means that relievers, including closers, will need more rest during the season, and managers need more than one option to close out games.
The Brewers used a three-headed monster of Corey Knebel (16 saves), Josh Hader (12 saves) and Jeremy Jeffress (15 saves) to close out games in 2018 on their way to the division title.
The Cincinnati Reds did the same thing all the way back in 1990, using the "Nasty Boys" of Randy Myers, Norm Charlton and Rob Dibble, to lead them to a World Series title.
One thing is for sure, if Miller, Hicks and Reyes are all clicking in 2019, manager Mike Shildt will have the luxury of picking and choosing who he uses on any given night and what was a weakness in 2018 could become a strength in 2019.
Friday, December 21, 2018
Wednesday, December 19, 2018
Is Bryce Harper still a possibility for the Cardinals?
At last week's winter meetings, uber-agent Scott Boras held his annual press conference, basically because he can.
During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".
Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".
The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.
But will they be?
The short answer is maybe.
The long answer is it's complicated.
First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders. They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position. Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.
In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job. Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract.
O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability. The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings. Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.
Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want. Can the Cardinals wait that long?
Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage. They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency. But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.
Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high. He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.
Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million. Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history. Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.
Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value). That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.
Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper. However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.
All we can do now is wait and see what happens.
During that press conference, he indicated that he was not worried about the perception that the Cardinals are not pursuing free agent Bryce Harper (one of his clients) saying that "they sit on the big bank of St. Louis".
Boras went on to say that "This is about winning and it’s about a good franchise and ownership, and the reality of it is that franchise is worth billions of dollars and they’re a top-10 revenue team".
The implications are that the Cards have money to burn and Boras still thinks that they will be a player for Harper when its all said and done.
But will they be?
The short answer is maybe.
The long answer is it's complicated.
First of all, the Cardinals already have a glut of outfielders. They spent some time during the winter meetings trying to find a suitor for Jose Martinez, he of the good bat and no defensive position. Chances are that he will end up in the AL, but the Cards are not dealing from a position of strength here as everyone knows he is likely to be traded.
In addition, with Marcel Ozuna and Harrison Bader penciled in for left and center field, the Cards have Dexter Fowler and Tyler O'Neil vying for the right field job. Fowler is going to be given every chance to reclaim the job, especially considering he has 3 years and $49.5 million remaining on his contract.
O'Neil is an intriguing prospect, with good power, but questions about his contact ability. The Cards also have Adolis Garcia, Randy Arozarena and Dylan Carson waiting in the wings. Needless to say, the team doesn't necessarily need another outfielder.
Secondly, Boras is notorious for waiting out the market, often up until Spring Training, to get his players what they want. Can the Cardinals wait that long?
Well, trading for Paul Goldschmidt buys them some time and leverage. They no longer need to acquire a big bat via free agency. But they won't mind indulging themselves, if the price is right.
Which brings me to my third point, the asking price for Harper is currently way too high. He already turned down a 10-year, $300 million offer from the Nationals, so you can expect to pay considerably more than that to acquire him.
Rumors have him seeking a 10-year deal worth in the neighborhood of $400 million. Boras' goal is likely to break the record for the largest contract in baseball history. Giancarlo Stanton set the record for the largest contract with a $325 million deal over 13 years, while Zack Greinke set the record for the largest per year contract value at over $34 million per year.
Its highly doubtful that the Cards won't go to 10 years for Harper, but I could see them willing to go 8 years and $35 million per year ($280 million total value). That would give Harper the highest AAV contract in history, while also placing him second behind Stanton for the largest total contract.
Boras is going to wait and see if he can get someone to overpay on Harper. However, the longer he waits, the more likely it is for teams to drop out of the race, which could leave the Cardinals in prime position to strike.
All we can do now is wait and see what happens.
Tuesday, December 11, 2018
Cardinals acquire Drew Robinson. Needle doesn't move.
One of the items on the Cardinals to do list for the Winter Meetings was to acquire a left handed hitting bench bat, preferably one with pop.
Today the Cardinals acquired Drew Robinson from the Rangers for Patrick Wisdom.
Here's hoping he's not what the Cardinals had in mind.
Yes, he's a left handed hitting utility player with some pop. However, to this point he has not shown he can hit major league pitching. In 216 major league at bats in 2017 and 2018, he has struck out 99 times or nearly 46% of the time.
He was not much better during his minor league career, striking out 924 times in 2,911 at bats or 32% of the time.
Perhaps the Cardinals just want to provide Tyler O'Neil (57 K's in 130 AB's) with some competition for the highest strikeout rate for 2019 or maybe the asking price for guys like Daniel Descalso was too much?
Whatever the case, I'm not enamored with the move.
Hopefully, Robinson will prove me wrong.
Today the Cardinals acquired Drew Robinson from the Rangers for Patrick Wisdom.
Here's hoping he's not what the Cardinals had in mind.
Yes, he's a left handed hitting utility player with some pop. However, to this point he has not shown he can hit major league pitching. In 216 major league at bats in 2017 and 2018, he has struck out 99 times or nearly 46% of the time.
He was not much better during his minor league career, striking out 924 times in 2,911 at bats or 32% of the time.
Perhaps the Cardinals just want to provide Tyler O'Neil (57 K's in 130 AB's) with some competition for the highest strikeout rate for 2019 or maybe the asking price for guys like Daniel Descalso was too much?
Whatever the case, I'm not enamored with the move.
Hopefully, Robinson will prove me wrong.
Monday, December 10, 2018
Winter Meetings: What is on the Cardinals to do list?
With the acquisition of Paul Goldschmidt from the Diamondbacks last week, the Cardinals already checked one item off their to do list for this off season. Although another big bat, like Bryce Harper, would be nice, it doesn't appear to be in the Cards.
So, what is left on the Cardinals to do list for this off season? Let's take a look:
1. Strengthen the bullpen, particularly from the left side
The Cards still have two years and $15 million left on the regrettable Brett Cecil contract and while they don't want to make the same mistake again, they still need to strengthen the left side of their bullpen if they want to contend next year.
Derrick Goold indicates that the Cardinals are in on lefties Zach Britton and Andrew Miller. Both have closing experience, which could allow the Cards to give Jordan Hicks more time to develop before thrusting him into that role.
However, both Britton (Achilles) and Miller (shoulder) dealt with injuries last year and will not come cheap. They are in high demand and will likely cost in excess of $30 million over 3 years. While the Cards have the financial flexibility to make such a deal, its hard to see them go all in on either Britton or Miller after getting burned by Cecil.
If neither of them work out for the Cardinals, they could pivot to the next tier of lefties, such as Justin Wilson, Oliver Perez and/or Tony Sipp.
2. Add a left handed bench bat, preferably one with some pop
The Cards entered this off season looking for a big bat, preferably one who hits left handed.
However, they ended up with Goldschmidt.
While that is all well and good, the Cardinals could still use some pop from the left side to keep opposing teams honest.
According to Goold, they have had talks with Daniel Descalso's agent about a possible reunion and Derek Dietrich is another possibility.
Beyond that, there's not many appealing options on the free agent market, so the team might have to look inwards and hope they can make do with someone like the switch hitting Tommy Edman or lefty Max Schrock, although neither offers much pop.
3. Sort out the outfield logjam
According to Brendan Schaeffer, the Cardinals are going to give Dexter Fowler every opportunity to assume the everyday right field role in 2019. While that is the PC thing to say, its hard to see him bouncing back from a .180/.278/.298 season that was cut short by a foot injury.
The Cards have Tyler O'Neil waiting in the wings, but he strikes out a ton (57 times in 130 at bats) and may not hit much better.
That leaves Jose Martinez. He was the second best hitter on the team, in terms of OPS (behind only Matt Carpenter) and while his defense is much maligned, his DRS of -6 is only slightly worse than Fowler's -5 and his UZR of -1 is actually better than Fowler's -5.2 mark.
Long story short, I wouldn't give up on Martinez just yet. While they are unlikely to be able to trade away Fowler and his hefty contract, especially given his down year, they could be willing to relegate him to a 4th outfielder/defensive replacement role.
In any case, it should be an interesting week.
Thursday, December 6, 2018
After blockbuster trade for Paul Goldschmidt, Cardinals fans still want more.
As you may have heard, the St. Louis Cardinals pulled off a big trade yesterday, acquiring Paul Goldschmidt from the Arizona Diamondbacks for a few spare parts.
That's not to belittle Luke Weaver, Carson Kelly or Andy Young (or the compensation draft pick) that the Cardinals gave up for Goldschmidt. They could very well end up becoming All-Stars for Arizona for years to come.
However, it was pretty obvious that the Cardinals did not see any of these players as an integral part of their 2019 or future plans: Weaver struggled last year and was demoted to the pen, Kelly may have been surpassed by Andrew Knizer as the Cardinals catcher of the future, and no one had probably heard of Young prior to this trade.
While that was an excellent get by the Cards and one that should help the team's offense and defense for 2019, what concerned most Cardinals fans was the news that came out shortly after.
According to Jennifer Langosch, despite "substantial financial flexibility", the Cards will not pursue Bryce Harper and will instead turn their attention to other needs.
Wait...what?
Yes, you heard that correctly. The Cardinals have the wherewithal to pursue another difference maker in Harper, but are already pulling themselves out of the race.
Granted, this could just be a smoke screen by the Cards. A means of trying to lower Harper's asking price. But, if it is not, it makes one wonder just how committed to winning the Cardinals really are.
The addition of Goldschmidt certainly improves the Cardinals chances for 2019. But both he and Marcell Ozuna are due to become free agents after next season. The Cards are certainly hoping to sign one or both of them to an extension, but that is not a given.
The Cardinals, due to their draft position in the mid to late first round each year, are unlikely to acquire a big hitter in the draft. Thus, their best bet is to either acquire such a bat via trade (like Ozuna and Goldy) or free agency.
Signing a player like Harper would guarantee that the Cardinals have a middle of the order bat locked up for years to come. Plus it would send a message to the rest of the NL Central that the Cardinals are serious about contending in 2019, not just for the division title but for the World Series.
Signing Harper would give the Cards a formidable lineup for 2019, as well as better lefty/righty balance in the heart of the order. It would be the kind of bold move that the Cardinals management rarely makes, but one that they should make.
The Cardinals already have Nelly recruiting Harper for them and the addition of Goldschmidt should make the Cards more appealing to Bryce. It just comes down to whether the Cardinals are willing to pony up what it would take to get him.
Past history and my gut tells me that will not happen. But one can certainly hope.
Wednesday, January 6, 2016
Could the Cardinals offense be improved in 2016?
The St. Louis Cardinals offense suffered a big loss when Jason Heyward took less money to sign with the rival Cubs. Given that the Cards finished 11th in the NL in runs scored, Heyward and his 3.8 oWAR (offensive Wins Against Replacement) will be missed.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
With the inability to resign Heyward and the apparent unwillingness to sign another big bat, most fans have given up hope for the Cardinals offense.
But fear not fans, despite the loss of Heyward, its still possible that the team's offense can improve.
Here's how....
Stay Healthy
The Cardinals lost two very important offensive pieces in Matt Holliday and Matt Adams for significant portions of the 2015 season. Holliday only played in 73 games, while Adams only played in 60.
Prior to 2015, Holliday average a 3.3 oWAR from 2012-2014, while Adams posted a 1.5 and 1.4 oWAR in his first two seasons in the majors.
If the Cardinals can get 130 to 140 games from both of those two guys, it will go a long way to replacing Heyward's production.
More Piscotty
The main benefactor from the Heyward departure appears to be Cards youngster Stephen Piscotty.
Piscotty burst onto the scene in 2015, hitting .305/.359/.494, good for a 1.4 oWAR in just 63 games. He should get the majority of the playing time in right field and could double that oWAR in 2016.
While his defense will not make anyone forget Heyward, his offense should not be much of a drop off.
Better Bench
One thing John Mozeliak did do this offseason was improve the team's bench.
Gone are the light hitting Pete Kozma (-0.7 oWAR), Jon Jay (-0.6 oWAR), Tony Cruz (-0.5 oWAR), Peter Bourjos (-0.3 oWAR) and Mark Reynolds (-0.3 oWAR).
Replacing them are Jed Gyorko (1.2 oWAR), Brayan Pena (0.6 oWAR), a full season of Tommy Pham (1.1 oWAR in 52 games) and late 2015 acquisition Brandon Moss (0.1 oWAR in 51 games).
Overall the Cardinals offense can improve, but there are some questions. Can Holliday stay healthy for a full season? Will Piscotty continue to produce or will he suffer a sophomore slump? Can the bench be relied on to give the starters (especially aging veterans Yadier Molina and Holliday) some rest?
The answers to those questions will determine the fate of the Cardinals offense.
Sunday, April 26, 2015
Where has all of the Cardinals pitching depth gone?
There was a time, not so long ago, that the Cardinals were the envy of General Managers everywhere for their pitching depth. You think your team has good pitching depth? We had 3 guys who can throw 95+ mph (Shelby Miller, Joe Kelly and Trevor Rosenthal) vying for our 5th starter spot in 2013.
Now, with the expectation that Adam Wainwright will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles tendon injury, per Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals pitching depth, or lack thereof, is going to come into question.
Gone are Joe Kelly (traded to Boston last year for John Lackey) and Shelby Miller (traded for Jason Heyward). Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and the pipeline of power arms seems to have dried up.
Now the Cards pitching depth consists of a bunch of lefty control specialists (Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons), while the team's remaining minor league power arms are either being groomed for relief (Sam Tuivailala) or are too far away from the majors to offer much help this year (Alex Reyes).
What is even more concerning is that, while he should have been groomed as a starter and allowed to build up his innings each year, Carlos Martinez spent the last two years in the Cardinals bullpen and, as a result, he will likely face an innings limit this year (speculated to be around 150 innings).
Another concern is that Michael Wacha will likely be on a similar innings limit as well, after a stress fracture sidelined him for a few months last year.
Assuming that Wainwright is out for the year and Martinez and Wacha reach their innings limits in mid-to-late August, who is going to step in to fill those voids? Who will be in the Cardinals rotation in the playoffs? Will they even make the playoffs?
These are legitimate concerns for a team that use to pride itself on its pitching depth. What use to be a strength now appears to be a weakness and the team could suffer as a result.
Now, with the expectation that Adam Wainwright will miss the rest of the season with an Achilles tendon injury, per Ken Rosenthal, the Cardinals pitching depth, or lack thereof, is going to come into question.
Gone are Joe Kelly (traded to Boston last year for John Lackey) and Shelby Miller (traded for Jason Heyward). Rosenthal is the Cardinals closer and the pipeline of power arms seems to have dried up.
Now the Cards pitching depth consists of a bunch of lefty control specialists (Marco Gonzales, Tim Cooney and Tyler Lyons), while the team's remaining minor league power arms are either being groomed for relief (Sam Tuivailala) or are too far away from the majors to offer much help this year (Alex Reyes).
What is even more concerning is that, while he should have been groomed as a starter and allowed to build up his innings each year, Carlos Martinez spent the last two years in the Cardinals bullpen and, as a result, he will likely face an innings limit this year (speculated to be around 150 innings).
Another concern is that Michael Wacha will likely be on a similar innings limit as well, after a stress fracture sidelined him for a few months last year.
Assuming that Wainwright is out for the year and Martinez and Wacha reach their innings limits in mid-to-late August, who is going to step in to fill those voids? Who will be in the Cardinals rotation in the playoffs? Will they even make the playoffs?
These are legitimate concerns for a team that use to pride itself on its pitching depth. What use to be a strength now appears to be a weakness and the team could suffer as a result.
Saturday, April 25, 2015
Adam Wainwright injured: Who might replace him in Cardinals' rotation?
In case you missed it, Adam Wainwright was injured tonight trying to get out of the batter's box on a popup of all things. He will undergo an MRI to see the extent of the injury, but its likely he's headed to the DL.
Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season. However, that is the worst case scenario.
At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation? Here are the Cardinals' options:
Marco Gonzales
The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales. He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.
As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.
The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.
Tim Cooney
Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts. His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters. However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.
Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.
Tyler Lyons
Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.
He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.
He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.
UPDATE:
It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in. However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.
Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....
Its uncertain how long he will be out, with some speculating that, if he has a torn Achilles, he could miss the rest of the season. However, that is the worst case scenario.
At a minimum, he will probably miss at least one start, leading to the question of who will replace him in the starting rotation? Here are the Cardinals' options:
Marco Gonzales
The first and most logical choice is Marco Gonzales. He pitched well during the spring, losing out in the 5th starter race to Carlos Martinez, despite going 3-0 with a 1.04 ERA.
As an added bonus, he is already on the 40-man roster, so calling him up would not cause the Cards any roster management headaches.
The only problem with Gonzo is that he has not pitched too well in the early going at AAA, with a 4.50 ERA in 3 starts.
Tim Cooney
Cooney has fared the best of any of the AAA starters, with a 3.63 ERA in 3 starts. His stuff is reminiscent of Gonzales, relying on his changeup and control, instead of trying to overpower hitters. However, he is not as far along as Gonzales and the Cards may want to give him more time to develop.
Add in the fact that he is not on the 40-man roster and its unlikely that he gets the call.
Tyler Lyons
Yet another lefty, like Gonzales and Cooney, Lyons has made 12 starts for the Cardinals over the last two years, serving mostly as a stopgap until someone better was ready to take over.
He could serve the same function this year, if the Cards feel that the need to give Gonzales more time to get into a groove or if they think Wainwright will only miss a minimal amount of time.
He is also on the 40-man roster, which is an added bonus.
UPDATE:
It appears that the Wainwright is going to miss the rest of the year with an Achilles injury, so Gonzales is the likely choice to fill in. However, Gonzales is currently dealing with a shoulder/pectoral muscle injury, so Lyons will likely get the call in the short term.
Of course, they could always trade for Cole Hamels, but that is a story for another day....
Sunday, April 19, 2015
Catching up with the Cardinals
OK, its been a while.
The problem with any blog, where you're the sole writer, is that often "real" life gets in the way.
So, with all the background noise finally starting to die down some, its time to get caught up with the Cards.
The Cardinals did most of the offseason moves before Christmas, acquiring Jason Heyward (for Shelby Miller) and adding Mark Reynolds to the bench. Heyward, who hit his first Redbird homer yesterday, seems to be a good fit for the team, while Reynolds gives the Cards a much needed right handed power bat to pair with Matt Adams at first.
Now, 10 games into the season, the Cardinals are 7-3 and sitting atop the NL Central. However, its not all wine and roses for the team. Despite the good start, there are some concerns to go along with the positives.
First, lets look at the positive, the pitching.
So far the pitching has been outstanding. The Cardinals pitching staff sits atop the NL leader board with a 2.00 ERA. Both the starters (2.02 ERA) and the relievers (1.95 ERA) have pitched well.
Particularly impressive has been the two starts by Carlos Martinez. After winning the 5th starter job, when Jaime Garcia succumbed to injury, he has had two straight quality starts, lasting 6 innings in both, while allowing just 7 hits, 4 walks and just 3 earned runs. He seems more focused this year, which he is dedicating to his departed friend, Oscar Taveras, and the only thing that might hold him down is a innings limit of around 150.
Now for the main concern, hitting.
Sure, the team is hitting .260, good for 4th in the NL, and their OBP of .323 is good for 2nd in the NL. Yet, despite the ability to get on base, the Cardinals have scored a paltry 41 runs (10th in the league) and have hit just 5 homers (14th in the league).
The Cardinals have not been known for their power hitters, finishing last in homers in 2014, but they were able to get by because of their approach with runners in scoring position (RISP). However, after hitting .330 with RISP in 2013, that average dropped to just .254 last year, when the team struggled to score runs, and its sitting at just .264 so far this year.
Without any significant power presence and an inability to hit in the clutch, the team could struggle to score runs again this year.
Overall, I feel confident in the Cardinals pitching staff. The have a lot of quality arms and some depth in the minors. The hitting is a concern, but, as we have seen with the Giants, good pitching and timely hitting can carry a team a long way.
The problem with any blog, where you're the sole writer, is that often "real" life gets in the way.
So, with all the background noise finally starting to die down some, its time to get caught up with the Cards.
The Cardinals did most of the offseason moves before Christmas, acquiring Jason Heyward (for Shelby Miller) and adding Mark Reynolds to the bench. Heyward, who hit his first Redbird homer yesterday, seems to be a good fit for the team, while Reynolds gives the Cards a much needed right handed power bat to pair with Matt Adams at first.
Now, 10 games into the season, the Cardinals are 7-3 and sitting atop the NL Central. However, its not all wine and roses for the team. Despite the good start, there are some concerns to go along with the positives.
First, lets look at the positive, the pitching.
So far the pitching has been outstanding. The Cardinals pitching staff sits atop the NL leader board with a 2.00 ERA. Both the starters (2.02 ERA) and the relievers (1.95 ERA) have pitched well.
Particularly impressive has been the two starts by Carlos Martinez. After winning the 5th starter job, when Jaime Garcia succumbed to injury, he has had two straight quality starts, lasting 6 innings in both, while allowing just 7 hits, 4 walks and just 3 earned runs. He seems more focused this year, which he is dedicating to his departed friend, Oscar Taveras, and the only thing that might hold him down is a innings limit of around 150.
Now for the main concern, hitting.
Sure, the team is hitting .260, good for 4th in the NL, and their OBP of .323 is good for 2nd in the NL. Yet, despite the ability to get on base, the Cardinals have scored a paltry 41 runs (10th in the league) and have hit just 5 homers (14th in the league).
The Cardinals have not been known for their power hitters, finishing last in homers in 2014, but they were able to get by because of their approach with runners in scoring position (RISP). However, after hitting .330 with RISP in 2013, that average dropped to just .254 last year, when the team struggled to score runs, and its sitting at just .264 so far this year.
Without any significant power presence and an inability to hit in the clutch, the team could struggle to score runs again this year.
Overall, I feel confident in the Cardinals pitching staff. The have a lot of quality arms and some depth in the minors. The hitting is a concern, but, as we have seen with the Giants, good pitching and timely hitting can carry a team a long way.
Friday, January 2, 2015
Cards shuffle the deck. Do they have what it takes to win it all?
Once again, the Cardinals and GM John Mozeliak got their Christmas shopping done early. Last year, Mo made his big moves in November (trading David Freese for Peter Bourjos and signing Jhonny Peralta) and he did the same this year (trading Shelby Miller and Tyrell Jenkins for Jason Heyward and Jordan Walden).
Other than maybe a couple more tweaks, it appears that the roster is complete. But are the Cardinals better off than last year? Do they have what it takes to win it all? Lets take a look at the changes and see.
Infield
The main goal for Mozeliak this offseason was to find a right handed bat who could play first and potentially platoon with Matt Adams. Mo filled that hole with the signing of Mark Reynolds to a one year, $2 million contract.
Reynolds will not provide much in terms of batting average (career .229 hitter), but he has 224 homers in 1118 games and has fared a bit better against lefties in his career (.809 OPS compared to .772 vs righties). This is far better than Adams' numbers against lefties (.553 career OPS), making Reynolds a good option to platoon with Adams.
Free agent Mark Ellis and his .180 average will not return and the Cardinals finally moved on from Daniel Descalso and his career .654 OPS. Replacing them will be veteran minor leaguer Dean Anna, who finally got a cup of coffee in the majors last year at the age of 27 and hit just .136 in 22 at bats. However, he does have a career .380 OBP in the minors, with nearly as many walks (310) as strikeouts (319) in 2448 plate appearances.
Another addition, is 26 year old Ty Kelly, who the Cardinals acquired from Seattle for Sam Gaviglio. Like Anna, Kelly showed the ability to get on base in the minors (.387 OBP) and had more walks (434) than strikeouts (431). Both Anna and Kelly project to be utility infielders, with Anna capable of playing second, short, third and corner outfield, while Kelly is capable of playing second, third and corner outfield.
Pete Kozma will also compete for a backup spot and is a career .236 hitter in 522 at bats.
Overall, I would have to say that infield is a bit better than last year, as the bench has improved with the addition of Reynolds, while the combination of Anna, Kelly and/or Kozma should be able to improve upon the meager outputs of Ellis and Descalso.
Outfield
After losing top prospect and likely starting right fielder Oscar Taveras to a tragic car accident, the Cardinals filled the void with the trade for Heyward. Heyward is an excellent defender, but has seen his OPS drop in each of the last 3 years from .814 in 2012, to .776 in 2013 and .735 in 2014. The main culprit for this drop is a serious power outage during that time that has seen his home runs drop from a career high of 27 in 2012 to a career low of 11 last season.
Randall Grichuk seemed to find his stroke in the second half last season, hitting .318/.338/.485 after the break and should provide some pop off the bench. Peter Bourjos will also fill a reserve role, with resurgent Jon Jay (.303/.372/.378) having reclaimed his starting job.
The Cardinals will also have highly regarded prospect Stephen Piscotty and defensive wiz Tommy Pham as extra depth at AAA Memphis, while Shane Robinson, who was released in November, along with his career .612 OPS, will not be missed.
Overall, Heyward should be an upgrade over the Cardinals 2014 right fielders (mostly Allen Craig and Taveras) who hit a combined .237/.283/.326. Bourjos and Grichuk will provide the backup, as they did for most of 2014 and will look to improve on their 2014 numbers.
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals started the overhaul of their rotation last July, with the acquisition of John Lackey for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. He will slot into the rotation that will also feature holdovers Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha.
With the trade of Shelby Miller, the 5th starter job will likely come down to a battle between Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales. Martinez made 7 starts last year and has the best stuff of the two, whereas Gonzales made 5 starts in 2014 and may be more polished.
One key to the Cardinals rotation will be the health of Wacha, who missed over two months last year due to a stress reaction in his shoulder. Should he prove healthy, he will give the Cards a quartet of starters that would match up well with most other teams in the league.
Another key will be Lynn proving that his 2014 season (15-10, 2.74 ERA) was not a fluke. He has been troubled by inconsistency throughout his career and must prove that he can put another strong season together.
Overall, with a healthy Wacha, the Cardinals rotation should be better. The emphasis should be on keeping these guys healthy, as the Cards showed in 2014 that their pitching depth isn't all that its cracked up to be, using 4 different guys (Martinez, Kelly, Gonzales and Tyler Lyons) to replace the injured Wacha and Jaime Garcia.
Bullpen
The bullpen appears to be the biggest question mark for the team heading into the 2015 season. Closer Trevor Rosenthal showed some signs of wear and tear after being leaned on heavily the last two seasons. His walk rate jumped from 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 to 5.4 BB/9 in 2014. He was able to wiggle out of numerous jams while posting 45 saves, but he was often walking a tightrope.
The Cardinals most effective reliever, Pat Neshek, is gone, taking with him a sparkling 1.87 ERA and 7 wins in 67.1 innings. While there are questions regarding Kevin Siegrist's health and who will replace Martinez' innings, should he move to a starter role.
To fill these voids, Mozeliak brought in Walden, who has a career ERA of 3.10 in 211.2 innings, and veteran Matt Belisle, whom the Cards hope will follow the Neshek rejuvenation path, after posting a 4.87 ERA in 2014.
The Cardinals will also return groundball specialist Seth Maness, along with lefties Randy Choate (4.50 ERA) and Sam Freeman (2.61 ERA), although Choate may be on the trading block.
Overall, this is the one area where I think the Cards may have taken a step back, especially if Martinez earns a starting rotation spot. Replacing Neshek and Martinez with Walden and possibly Belisle is definitely a downgrade and, even if Martinez returns to the bullpen, the Cardinals may have only 3-4 reliable bullpen arms. I would love to see Mo add at least one more proven guy to the pen.
Based on all of the above, I think the Cards should be improved over last year, but there are still concerns surrounding the bullpen. As we saw last year, when the Cardinals bullpen went 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA in the LCS compared to the Giants 3-1, 1.69 performance, a good bullpen can make all the difference.
Other than maybe a couple more tweaks, it appears that the roster is complete. But are the Cardinals better off than last year? Do they have what it takes to win it all? Lets take a look at the changes and see.
Infield
The main goal for Mozeliak this offseason was to find a right handed bat who could play first and potentially platoon with Matt Adams. Mo filled that hole with the signing of Mark Reynolds to a one year, $2 million contract.
Reynolds will not provide much in terms of batting average (career .229 hitter), but he has 224 homers in 1118 games and has fared a bit better against lefties in his career (.809 OPS compared to .772 vs righties). This is far better than Adams' numbers against lefties (.553 career OPS), making Reynolds a good option to platoon with Adams.
Free agent Mark Ellis and his .180 average will not return and the Cardinals finally moved on from Daniel Descalso and his career .654 OPS. Replacing them will be veteran minor leaguer Dean Anna, who finally got a cup of coffee in the majors last year at the age of 27 and hit just .136 in 22 at bats. However, he does have a career .380 OBP in the minors, with nearly as many walks (310) as strikeouts (319) in 2448 plate appearances.
Another addition, is 26 year old Ty Kelly, who the Cardinals acquired from Seattle for Sam Gaviglio. Like Anna, Kelly showed the ability to get on base in the minors (.387 OBP) and had more walks (434) than strikeouts (431). Both Anna and Kelly project to be utility infielders, with Anna capable of playing second, short, third and corner outfield, while Kelly is capable of playing second, third and corner outfield.
Pete Kozma will also compete for a backup spot and is a career .236 hitter in 522 at bats.
Overall, I would have to say that infield is a bit better than last year, as the bench has improved with the addition of Reynolds, while the combination of Anna, Kelly and/or Kozma should be able to improve upon the meager outputs of Ellis and Descalso.
Outfield
After losing top prospect and likely starting right fielder Oscar Taveras to a tragic car accident, the Cardinals filled the void with the trade for Heyward. Heyward is an excellent defender, but has seen his OPS drop in each of the last 3 years from .814 in 2012, to .776 in 2013 and .735 in 2014. The main culprit for this drop is a serious power outage during that time that has seen his home runs drop from a career high of 27 in 2012 to a career low of 11 last season.
Randall Grichuk seemed to find his stroke in the second half last season, hitting .318/.338/.485 after the break and should provide some pop off the bench. Peter Bourjos will also fill a reserve role, with resurgent Jon Jay (.303/.372/.378) having reclaimed his starting job.
The Cardinals will also have highly regarded prospect Stephen Piscotty and defensive wiz Tommy Pham as extra depth at AAA Memphis, while Shane Robinson, who was released in November, along with his career .612 OPS, will not be missed.
Overall, Heyward should be an upgrade over the Cardinals 2014 right fielders (mostly Allen Craig and Taveras) who hit a combined .237/.283/.326. Bourjos and Grichuk will provide the backup, as they did for most of 2014 and will look to improve on their 2014 numbers.
Starting Pitching
The Cardinals started the overhaul of their rotation last July, with the acquisition of John Lackey for Allen Craig and Joe Kelly. He will slot into the rotation that will also feature holdovers Adam Wainwright, Lance Lynn and Michael Wacha.
With the trade of Shelby Miller, the 5th starter job will likely come down to a battle between Carlos Martinez and Marco Gonzales. Martinez made 7 starts last year and has the best stuff of the two, whereas Gonzales made 5 starts in 2014 and may be more polished.
One key to the Cardinals rotation will be the health of Wacha, who missed over two months last year due to a stress reaction in his shoulder. Should he prove healthy, he will give the Cards a quartet of starters that would match up well with most other teams in the league.
Another key will be Lynn proving that his 2014 season (15-10, 2.74 ERA) was not a fluke. He has been troubled by inconsistency throughout his career and must prove that he can put another strong season together.
Overall, with a healthy Wacha, the Cardinals rotation should be better. The emphasis should be on keeping these guys healthy, as the Cards showed in 2014 that their pitching depth isn't all that its cracked up to be, using 4 different guys (Martinez, Kelly, Gonzales and Tyler Lyons) to replace the injured Wacha and Jaime Garcia.
Bullpen
The bullpen appears to be the biggest question mark for the team heading into the 2015 season. Closer Trevor Rosenthal showed some signs of wear and tear after being leaned on heavily the last two seasons. His walk rate jumped from 2.4 BB/9 in 2013 to 5.4 BB/9 in 2014. He was able to wiggle out of numerous jams while posting 45 saves, but he was often walking a tightrope.
The Cardinals most effective reliever, Pat Neshek, is gone, taking with him a sparkling 1.87 ERA and 7 wins in 67.1 innings. While there are questions regarding Kevin Siegrist's health and who will replace Martinez' innings, should he move to a starter role.
To fill these voids, Mozeliak brought in Walden, who has a career ERA of 3.10 in 211.2 innings, and veteran Matt Belisle, whom the Cards hope will follow the Neshek rejuvenation path, after posting a 4.87 ERA in 2014.
The Cardinals will also return groundball specialist Seth Maness, along with lefties Randy Choate (4.50 ERA) and Sam Freeman (2.61 ERA), although Choate may be on the trading block.
Overall, this is the one area where I think the Cards may have taken a step back, especially if Martinez earns a starting rotation spot. Replacing Neshek and Martinez with Walden and possibly Belisle is definitely a downgrade and, even if Martinez returns to the bullpen, the Cardinals may have only 3-4 reliable bullpen arms. I would love to see Mo add at least one more proven guy to the pen.
Based on all of the above, I think the Cards should be improved over last year, but there are still concerns surrounding the bullpen. As we saw last year, when the Cardinals bullpen went 1-3 with a 4.96 ERA in the LCS compared to the Giants 3-1, 1.69 performance, a good bullpen can make all the difference.
Monday, November 17, 2014
What is the long-term (and short-term) impact of the Cardinals acquisition of Jason Heyward from the Braves.
In case you missed it, the Cardinals made a big move today, acquiring Jason Heyward and reliever Jordan Walden from the Braves in exchange for Shelby Miller and prospect Tyrell Jenkins.
GM John Mozeliak let it be known that the Cards were looking to find an upgrade for their right field spot, after the loss of Oscar Taveras left them with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty as their only internal options, and Mo did not wait long to make a move.
Let's look at the impact of this move on the Cardinals both in the short term and long term.
Short Term
Heyward will immediately step in as the Cards starting right fielder, meaning that Grichuk will likely serve as the team's 4th (or 5th) outfielder. Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Heyward will be the starting trio in the outfield, with Peter Bourjos and Grichuk serving as backups.
Heyward is widely considered an excellent right fielder, having won two Gold Gloves, including just recently winning the 2014 award. He has some pop, hitting as many as 27 home runs in a season (in 2012), but his power has waned in recent years, as he hit just 11 homers in 2014 and had a .384 slugging percentage. Given that he is just 25 years old, he could still regain his power stroke. However, even if he doesn't his defense and his speed (20 stolen bases while being caught only 4 times in 2014) still make him a valuable player and a nice addition to the 2015 lineup.
On the pitching side, losing Miller hurts, but the addition of Walden could allow the Cardinals to slide Carlos Martinez into Miller's rotation spot, with Walden serving as the setup man. Marco Gonzales is another possibility and the team might decide to go with him instead if only to allow them to keep Martinez and his power arm in the pen.
Much could depend on whether the Cards bring in another reliever (or two) this offseason, to offset the losses of Pat Neshek and Jason Motte.
Overall, I like this move from a 2015 standpoint, as the offense (and defense) should be better with the addition of Heyward, while the pitching should not skip a beat, as the combination of Martinez and Gonzales should make up for the loss of Miller and Walden should help in the bullpen.
Long Term
Here's where things could swing in the Braves favor.
A lot depends on whether the Cardinals can sign Heyward to an extension. He is only under contract through the 2015 season and if he leaves for free agency, the Cards will be left with just Walden.
The Braves on the other hand, will have 4 more years of Miller (including the 2015 season) and 6 years of Jenkins.
After a great rookie year, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting, Miller struggled in 2014. He was inconsistent for most of the year and saw his ERA rise to 3.74, while his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) decreased from 8.8 in 2013 to 6.2 in 2014. He is only 23 and certainly has the ability and stuff to bounce back, but there were some concerns about Miller after he didn't pitch in the 2013 postseason and the Cards seem to have been shopping him for a while.
Jenkins, of course, is the real wildcard here. In 5 minor league seasons, he has yet to pitch above A ball, mainly due to injuries. However, he had a good showing in 2014 at high A Palm Beach (3.28 ERA in 74 IP). He was rated as high as the Cardinals #8 prospect by Baseball America, prior to the 2013 season, but fell to the #17 slot prior to 2014. He's still got a live arm, throwing in the mid-90's, but needs to prove he can stay healthy.
Overall, I like this trade. Yes, we may lose Heyward after the 2015 season, but the Cardinals have shown the ability to retain players they have acquired via trade in the past (Matt Holliday being the most recent example). There are questions surrounding Miller, as there are with Heyward, but the Cards are still getting 2 proven major leaguers for one somewhat shaky starter and a prospect.
GM John Mozeliak let it be known that the Cards were looking to find an upgrade for their right field spot, after the loss of Oscar Taveras left them with Randal Grichuk and Stephen Piscotty as their only internal options, and Mo did not wait long to make a move.
Let's look at the impact of this move on the Cardinals both in the short term and long term.
Short Term
Heyward will immediately step in as the Cards starting right fielder, meaning that Grichuk will likely serve as the team's 4th (or 5th) outfielder. Matt Holliday, Jon Jay and Heyward will be the starting trio in the outfield, with Peter Bourjos and Grichuk serving as backups.
Heyward is widely considered an excellent right fielder, having won two Gold Gloves, including just recently winning the 2014 award. He has some pop, hitting as many as 27 home runs in a season (in 2012), but his power has waned in recent years, as he hit just 11 homers in 2014 and had a .384 slugging percentage. Given that he is just 25 years old, he could still regain his power stroke. However, even if he doesn't his defense and his speed (20 stolen bases while being caught only 4 times in 2014) still make him a valuable player and a nice addition to the 2015 lineup.
On the pitching side, losing Miller hurts, but the addition of Walden could allow the Cardinals to slide Carlos Martinez into Miller's rotation spot, with Walden serving as the setup man. Marco Gonzales is another possibility and the team might decide to go with him instead if only to allow them to keep Martinez and his power arm in the pen.
Much could depend on whether the Cards bring in another reliever (or two) this offseason, to offset the losses of Pat Neshek and Jason Motte.
Overall, I like this move from a 2015 standpoint, as the offense (and defense) should be better with the addition of Heyward, while the pitching should not skip a beat, as the combination of Martinez and Gonzales should make up for the loss of Miller and Walden should help in the bullpen.
Long Term
Here's where things could swing in the Braves favor.
A lot depends on whether the Cardinals can sign Heyward to an extension. He is only under contract through the 2015 season and if he leaves for free agency, the Cards will be left with just Walden.
The Braves on the other hand, will have 4 more years of Miller (including the 2015 season) and 6 years of Jenkins.
After a great rookie year, in which he posted a 3.06 ERA and finished 3rd in the Rookie of the Year voting, Miller struggled in 2014. He was inconsistent for most of the year and saw his ERA rise to 3.74, while his strikeouts per 9 innings (K/9) decreased from 8.8 in 2013 to 6.2 in 2014. He is only 23 and certainly has the ability and stuff to bounce back, but there were some concerns about Miller after he didn't pitch in the 2013 postseason and the Cards seem to have been shopping him for a while.
Jenkins, of course, is the real wildcard here. In 5 minor league seasons, he has yet to pitch above A ball, mainly due to injuries. However, he had a good showing in 2014 at high A Palm Beach (3.28 ERA in 74 IP). He was rated as high as the Cardinals #8 prospect by Baseball America, prior to the 2013 season, but fell to the #17 slot prior to 2014. He's still got a live arm, throwing in the mid-90's, but needs to prove he can stay healthy.
Overall, I like this trade. Yes, we may lose Heyward after the 2015 season, but the Cardinals have shown the ability to retain players they have acquired via trade in the past (Matt Holliday being the most recent example). There are questions surrounding Miller, as there are with Heyward, but the Cards are still getting 2 proven major leaguers for one somewhat shaky starter and a prospect.
Monday, November 10, 2014
Cardinals look to fill the void after tragic loss of Oscar Taveras
Like most (if not all) of you, I was shocked and deeply saddened upon learning of the death of Oscar Taveras. Not only did the Cardinals lose a potential star in the making, but they also lost an incredible person both on and off the field. My condolences go out to the Taveras' family and friends, as well as those of his girlfriend, who was also killed in the accident.
Taveras will be missed.
Now, the Cardinals have to move past the tragedy and try to build a team capable of beating the Giants and making it to next year's fall classic.
To start off with, the Cards will have to find a replacement for Taveras. Randal Grichuk, who was slated to compete with Taveras for the right field job, could get the nod, and the team also has Stephen Piscotty waiting in the wings.
However, Jennifer Langosch is reporting that the Cardinals could look outside of the organization for a right fielder.
If the Cardinals do look outside the organization for a right fielder, what are their options?
Here are some free agent possibilities:
Yasmany Tomas
Probably at the top of many teams' lists is Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas, a right-handed corner outfield who reportedly has "huge power". He is just 24 years old and is expected to get somewhere in the neighborhood of a 7-year, $100 million contract. However, there are already several teams vying for his service, which could result if a bidding war, something the Cards may want to avoid.
Nick Markakis
Markakis is a decent right fielder with a good career OBP (.358) and a little pop (.435 SLG). The Orioles did not make him a qualifying offer, meaning he is not tied to any draft picks, thus making him all the more attractive. He is only 30 years old and will likely be seeking something in the neighborhood of 4 years/$65 million.
Nelson Cruz
Cruz, 34, led all of MLB with 40 homers in 2014 and is arguably the best power hitter on the market. For a team that finished last in the NL in home runs, that certainly holds some appeal. However, he is limited defensively and, with Matt Holliday patrolling left field, the Cardinals may not want to further damage their defense.
Mike Morse
Morse could be a decent stop gap option if the team feels that Randal Grichuk just needs a little more time before he's ready. As a right hander capable of playing first, he could also be worked into a platoon with Matt Adams. He's only 32, but seems to be on the down slope of his career.
Alex Rios
Another potential stop gap, Rios offers little power, but hits for a decent average and destroys lefties (.325 average against in 2014). He will turn 34 next year andcould be had on a one year deal in order to build value.
Overall, the Cardinals have been saying they are willing to increase their payroll and with little other needs, a quality right fielder might be the best way to spend that money. Tomas would be my first choice, with Markakis second. Beyond that and you begin to wonder if any of the players would be an upgrade over Grichuk.
Taveras will be missed.
Now, the Cardinals have to move past the tragedy and try to build a team capable of beating the Giants and making it to next year's fall classic.
To start off with, the Cards will have to find a replacement for Taveras. Randal Grichuk, who was slated to compete with Taveras for the right field job, could get the nod, and the team also has Stephen Piscotty waiting in the wings.
However, Jennifer Langosch is reporting that the Cardinals could look outside of the organization for a right fielder.
If the Cardinals do look outside the organization for a right fielder, what are their options?
Here are some free agent possibilities:
Yasmany Tomas
Probably at the top of many teams' lists is Cuban defector Yasmany Tomas, a right-handed corner outfield who reportedly has "huge power". He is just 24 years old and is expected to get somewhere in the neighborhood of a 7-year, $100 million contract. However, there are already several teams vying for his service, which could result if a bidding war, something the Cards may want to avoid.
Nick Markakis
Markakis is a decent right fielder with a good career OBP (.358) and a little pop (.435 SLG). The Orioles did not make him a qualifying offer, meaning he is not tied to any draft picks, thus making him all the more attractive. He is only 30 years old and will likely be seeking something in the neighborhood of 4 years/$65 million.
Nelson Cruz
Cruz, 34, led all of MLB with 40 homers in 2014 and is arguably the best power hitter on the market. For a team that finished last in the NL in home runs, that certainly holds some appeal. However, he is limited defensively and, with Matt Holliday patrolling left field, the Cardinals may not want to further damage their defense.
Mike Morse
Morse could be a decent stop gap option if the team feels that Randal Grichuk just needs a little more time before he's ready. As a right hander capable of playing first, he could also be worked into a platoon with Matt Adams. He's only 32, but seems to be on the down slope of his career.
Alex Rios
Another potential stop gap, Rios offers little power, but hits for a decent average and destroys lefties (.325 average against in 2014). He will turn 34 next year andcould be had on a one year deal in order to build value.
Overall, the Cardinals have been saying they are willing to increase their payroll and with little other needs, a quality right fielder might be the best way to spend that money. Tomas would be my first choice, with Markakis second. Beyond that and you begin to wonder if any of the players would be an upgrade over Grichuk.
Monday, October 6, 2014
John Lackey's big game and Kolten Wong's blast lead Cardinals to game three win
John Lackey came up big again and the Cardinals took advantage of the Dodgers shaky bullpen to win game three and give themselves a 2-1 lead in the NLDS.
Lackey, who was acquired in a controversial trade in which the Cards gave up Allen Craig and Joe Kelly, lived up to his big game reputation, allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. However, he was matched by Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who allowed just 1 run in 6 innings despite making his first start since September 12th.
However, Ryu was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the 7th and the Cardinals jumped on reliever Scott Elbert to the tune of 2 runs on 3 hits, with the big blow Kolten Wong's 2-run homer.
The Cardinals power surge has been surprising this postseason, with 6 homers in 3 games (Matt Carpenter has 3 of those, homering in each game), after finishing the regular season last in the NL with just 105 homers.
Now, with an series edge, the Cards are going to have to close it out against two of the best pitchers in the NL, as Clayton Kershaw will pitch on short rest tomorrow, followed by Zach Greinke in game 5 (if necessary).
The matchup tomorrow should favor the Cards, as Kershaw is 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA in his postseason career, including 0-3 with a 8.10 ERA in his last 3 postseason starts against the Cardinals. Plus, pitchers going on short rest rarely fair well in the postseason.
However, this is still Kershaw that we are talking about. The reigning Cy Young award winner and the guy most likely to win it again this year. So you can throw all those prior stats out the door. He will be out to prove himself and the Cards will have their work cut out for them.
He will be opposed by Shelby Miller, who was one of the Cardinals hottest pitchers down the stretch, with a 2-0 record and 1.48 ERA in his last 5 starts of the season. However, he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA this year and 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in his career against the Dodgers.
The Cards will hope to at least keep the game close so that they can exploit the Dodger's bullpen, which has given up 6 runs in 6.1 innings so far.
In any case, tomorrow is the game we want as we certainly don't want to head back to L.A. and have to face Greinke again (1-0, with a 1.64 record in his last 3 postseason starts against the Cards).
Lackey, who was acquired in a controversial trade in which the Cards gave up Allen Craig and Joe Kelly, lived up to his big game reputation, allowing just 1 run in 7 innings. However, he was matched by Dodgers lefty Hyun-Jin Ryu, who allowed just 1 run in 6 innings despite making his first start since September 12th.
However, Ryu was lifted for a pinch-hitter in the 7th and the Cardinals jumped on reliever Scott Elbert to the tune of 2 runs on 3 hits, with the big blow Kolten Wong's 2-run homer.
The Cardinals power surge has been surprising this postseason, with 6 homers in 3 games (Matt Carpenter has 3 of those, homering in each game), after finishing the regular season last in the NL with just 105 homers.
Now, with an series edge, the Cards are going to have to close it out against two of the best pitchers in the NL, as Clayton Kershaw will pitch on short rest tomorrow, followed by Zach Greinke in game 5 (if necessary).
The matchup tomorrow should favor the Cards, as Kershaw is 1-4 with a 5.20 ERA in his postseason career, including 0-3 with a 8.10 ERA in his last 3 postseason starts against the Cardinals. Plus, pitchers going on short rest rarely fair well in the postseason.
However, this is still Kershaw that we are talking about. The reigning Cy Young award winner and the guy most likely to win it again this year. So you can throw all those prior stats out the door. He will be out to prove himself and the Cards will have their work cut out for them.
He will be opposed by Shelby Miller, who was one of the Cardinals hottest pitchers down the stretch, with a 2-0 record and 1.48 ERA in his last 5 starts of the season. However, he is 0-1 with a 9.00 ERA this year and 1-1 with a 6.57 ERA in his career against the Dodgers.
The Cards will hope to at least keep the game close so that they can exploit the Dodger's bullpen, which has given up 6 runs in 6.1 innings so far.
In any case, tomorrow is the game we want as we certainly don't want to head back to L.A. and have to face Greinke again (1-0, with a 1.64 record in his last 3 postseason starts against the Cards).
Sunday, October 5, 2014
Tomorrow we get to see if the Cardinals' John Lackey really is a big game pitcher
After splitting the first two games of the NLDS, in part due to an improbable comeback in game one against the NL's best pitcher and likely Cy Young winner Clayton Kershaw, the Cardinals return home for two games starting Monday night.
Taking the mound for the Cardinals is John Lackey, otherwise known as the guy the Cards traded both Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for back in July. Lackey will be making his first postseason appearance since winning game 6 of the 2013 World Series against the Cardinals.
Lackey has earned a bit of a reputation as a big game pitcher, with people noting that he out dueled Detroit ace Justin Verlander last year in game 3 of the ALCS and of course his big win in game 6 of the World Series.
However, is he really all that clutch?
This is Lackey's 6th postseason. His first postseason with the Angels back in 2002 was pretty special, as he went 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA including winning game 7 of the World Series against the Giants.
Last year was also kinda special, as he earned his second World Series ring while going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA.
However, in between, he has gone 1-4 with a 3.40 ERA, not terrible stats, at least from an ERA standpoint, but hardly the resume of a "big game" pitcher.
Sometimes players can build a reputation from just a few games or one great season, weather its warranted or not. Just ask Allen Craig, who hit .454 with RISP in 2013, how "clutch" he was in 2014.
As statisticians always say, "beware of small sample sizes".
So while Cardinals fans are hoping for another "big game" performance from Lackey in game 3, I'll just be hoping for a win.
Taking the mound for the Cardinals is John Lackey, otherwise known as the guy the Cards traded both Allen Craig and Joe Kelly for back in July. Lackey will be making his first postseason appearance since winning game 6 of the 2013 World Series against the Cardinals.
Lackey has earned a bit of a reputation as a big game pitcher, with people noting that he out dueled Detroit ace Justin Verlander last year in game 3 of the ALCS and of course his big win in game 6 of the World Series.
However, is he really all that clutch?
This is Lackey's 6th postseason. His first postseason with the Angels back in 2002 was pretty special, as he went 2-0 with a 2.42 ERA including winning game 7 of the World Series against the Giants.
Last year was also kinda special, as he earned his second World Series ring while going 3-1 with a 2.77 ERA.
However, in between, he has gone 1-4 with a 3.40 ERA, not terrible stats, at least from an ERA standpoint, but hardly the resume of a "big game" pitcher.
Sometimes players can build a reputation from just a few games or one great season, weather its warranted or not. Just ask Allen Craig, who hit .454 with RISP in 2013, how "clutch" he was in 2014.
As statisticians always say, "beware of small sample sizes".
So while Cardinals fans are hoping for another "big game" performance from Lackey in game 3, I'll just be hoping for a win.
Thursday, September 18, 2014
Schedule favors the Cardinals down the stretch
With the Cardinals battling the Pirates for the NL Central crown and just 11 days left in the season, its getting to be crunch time. The Cards have a 2.5 game lead on the Buccos, with 10 games remaining. The Pirates have 11 games left.
Here's how their schedules break down:
Cardinals:
9/18: vs. Brewers (79-73)
9/19 - 9/21: vs. Reds (71-82)
9/22 - 9/24: @ Cubs (68-84)
9/25: off day
9/26 - 9/28: @ Diamondbacks (62-90)
Pirates:
9/18: vs. Red Sox (66-86)
9/19 - 9/21: vs. Brewers (79-73)
9/22 - 9/25: @ Braves (76-76)
9/26 - 9/28: @ Reds (71-82)
The Cardinals opponents have a combined weighted-average winning percentage of .440 vs the Pirates' opponents weighted average winning percentage of .490, a clear advantage for the Cards.
In addition, both teams play the same number of home games (4) while the Pirates have one more away game than the Cards (and one more game overall), which might be a slight disadvantage for them.
Finally, considering that the Brewers and Braves are both fighting for a playoff spot, one can assume they will give the Pirates a tougher test than the Cubs and Diamondbacks for the Cardinals. However, there might be more pressure on the Brewers and Braves, which may make them not play as well, while the Cubs and Diamondbacks have nothing to lose, so who knows who has the advantage here.
Overall, the schedule favors the Cardinals. However, the Pirates have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 12 games. So, although I think the Cards will win the division, they still have to take care of business and win the games they are suppose to win.
Here's how their schedules break down:
Cardinals:
9/18: vs. Brewers (79-73)
9/19 - 9/21: vs. Reds (71-82)
9/22 - 9/24: @ Cubs (68-84)
9/25: off day
9/26 - 9/28: @ Diamondbacks (62-90)
Pirates:
9/18: vs. Red Sox (66-86)
9/19 - 9/21: vs. Brewers (79-73)
9/22 - 9/25: @ Braves (76-76)
9/26 - 9/28: @ Reds (71-82)
The Cardinals opponents have a combined weighted-average winning percentage of .440 vs the Pirates' opponents weighted average winning percentage of .490, a clear advantage for the Cards.
In addition, both teams play the same number of home games (4) while the Pirates have one more away game than the Cards (and one more game overall), which might be a slight disadvantage for them.
Finally, considering that the Brewers and Braves are both fighting for a playoff spot, one can assume they will give the Pirates a tougher test than the Cubs and Diamondbacks for the Cardinals. However, there might be more pressure on the Brewers and Braves, which may make them not play as well, while the Cubs and Diamondbacks have nothing to lose, so who knows who has the advantage here.
Overall, the schedule favors the Cardinals. However, the Pirates have been hot lately, winning 11 of their last 12 games. So, although I think the Cards will win the division, they still have to take care of business and win the games they are suppose to win.
Sunday, August 24, 2014
How do the Cardinals' July trades affect their roster going forward?
The Cardinals current and future roster changed dramatically in July when John Mozeliak jettisoned Allen Craig, Joe Kelly and minor leaguer James Ramsey in exchange for pitchers Justin Masterson and John Lackey, along with minor leaguer pitcher Corey Littrell.
Kelly would have been under team control through the 2018 season and Craig was signed to a reasonable contract through the 2017 season, with a $13 million option for 2018.
In exchange, the Cardinals got Masterson, who is a free agent after this season, and Lackey, who has an incredibly low $500K option for 2015.
The move also cleared room for top prospect Oscar Taveras to play everyday as the starting right fielder.
Does it make the team better in the long run? That's hard to say, but at least one writer, Bob Nightengale thinks that the Cardinals will regret the Lackey trade.
However, it does change the Cardinals projected lineup and starting pitching for 2015 and beyond, here's a quick look at both:
Lineup
With Taveras replacing Craig, the lineup should be pretty much set through the 2016 season, after which, both Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are set to become free agents.
Back in December, I predicted that James Ramsey was the heir apparent to the center field job, eventually replacing Bourjos after the 2016 season (I predicted Jay would be traded this year).
The Cards other top outfield prospects, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are both projected as corner outfielders, leaving the team without an obvious center fielder of the future.
Tommy Pham is probably the Cardinals best defensive center field prospect, but has a career .253 average in the minors. He has hit well this year, with a .332 average, albeit in the hitter-friendly PCL.
In any case, the Cards could always extend the contracts of Jay or Bourjos, if needed.
Starting Rotation
Here's where things get a little more interesting. The Cardinals obviously needed starting pitching this year to make up for the losses of Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha. Its unlikely that Garcia will pitch for the Cards again, while Wacha hopes to return sometime in September and should be healthy going forward.
With Lacky signed through 2015 and Masterson a free agent after the season, here's what the 2015 rotation should look like:
For 2016, Lackey will roll off the books, with Martinez and Gonzales battling for the 5th spot. Giving us the following rotation:
Overall, I think the Ramsey loss could create a hole in center in the future, while the Cardinals overall pitching depth doesn't seem as strong as the past few years. But, if the team can keep drafting and developing players like they have in the past, these issues will resolve themselves.
Kelly would have been under team control through the 2018 season and Craig was signed to a reasonable contract through the 2017 season, with a $13 million option for 2018.
In exchange, the Cardinals got Masterson, who is a free agent after this season, and Lackey, who has an incredibly low $500K option for 2015.
The move also cleared room for top prospect Oscar Taveras to play everyday as the starting right fielder.
Does it make the team better in the long run? That's hard to say, but at least one writer, Bob Nightengale thinks that the Cardinals will regret the Lackey trade.
However, it does change the Cardinals projected lineup and starting pitching for 2015 and beyond, here's a quick look at both:
Lineup
With Taveras replacing Craig, the lineup should be pretty much set through the 2016 season, after which, both Jon Jay and Peter Bourjos are set to become free agents.
Back in December, I predicted that James Ramsey was the heir apparent to the center field job, eventually replacing Bourjos after the 2016 season (I predicted Jay would be traded this year).
The Cards other top outfield prospects, Stephen Piscotty and Randal Grichuk are both projected as corner outfielders, leaving the team without an obvious center fielder of the future.
Tommy Pham is probably the Cardinals best defensive center field prospect, but has a career .253 average in the minors. He has hit well this year, with a .332 average, albeit in the hitter-friendly PCL.
In any case, the Cards could always extend the contracts of Jay or Bourjos, if needed.
Starting Rotation
Here's where things get a little more interesting. The Cardinals obviously needed starting pitching this year to make up for the losses of Jaime Garcia and Michael Wacha. Its unlikely that Garcia will pitch for the Cards again, while Wacha hopes to return sometime in September and should be healthy going forward.
With Lacky signed through 2015 and Masterson a free agent after the season, here's what the 2015 rotation should look like:
- Adam Wainwright
- Michael Wacha
- John Lackey
- Lance Lynn
- Shelby Miller
For 2016, Lackey will roll off the books, with Martinez and Gonzales battling for the 5th spot. Giving us the following rotation:
- Wainwright
- Wacha
- Lynn
- Miller
- Martinez/Gonzales
- Wainwright
- Wacha
- Miller
- Martinez
- Gonzales
Overall, I think the Ramsey loss could create a hole in center in the future, while the Cardinals overall pitching depth doesn't seem as strong as the past few years. But, if the team can keep drafting and developing players like they have in the past, these issues will resolve themselves.
Friday, August 1, 2014
Random thoughts on the Cardinals moves as the trade deadline dust settles
As we all continue to digest the trade deadline moves by the Cardinals, here are some of my random thoughts on them.
The Cardinals overpaid on John Lackey
Lackey is a good pitcher and all that, but is he really worth both Allen Craig and Joe Kelly? My initial impression when I heard of the trade was that we "sold low" on both Craig and Kelly. Yes, they were both having down years and perhaps had fallen out of favor with the Cards, but couldn't we have gotten something better for them?
Despite all that, I don't think we could have used those two to get David Price and I don't think that John Mozeliak would have given these guys up for a two-month rental (aka Jon Lester), so maybe Lackey was the best he could do.
David Price's price was cheaper than I thought
In a 3-team deal, the Rays traded Price to Detroit while getting Nick Franklin (from Seattle), Drew Smyly (from Detroit) and minor leaguer Willy Adames. Franklin was, at best, a top 50 prospect and has yet to hit in the majors. Smyly is a good, solid left handed pitcher. While Adames is kind of a "meh" prospect.
Could the Cardinals have topped that? Certainly. Give the Rays Shelby Miller, Stephen Piscotty and some mid-level prospect and you should have a deal.
My thought all along is that it would take a top-end prospect to land Price, but apparently that was not the case.
Acquiring Justin Masterson was a classic Mozeliak move
The last few years we've grown accustomed to the Cardinals GM John Mozeliak making small tweaks to the team at the trade deadline (or thereafter). The last couple years those tweaks were to use some extra prospects pieces to acquire a struggling pitcher in hopes they turn it around with the Cards.
In 2012, that pitcher was Edward Mujica, who had a 4.38 ERA with the Marlins before Mo acquired him. He then proceeded to post a 1.03 ERA down the stretch with the Cardinals.
In August of 2013, the Cardinals picked up John Axford from the Brewers, who had a 4.45 ERA prior to the trade and a 1.74 ERA afterwards.
Hopefully, Masterson can follow this same trend.
Are the Cardinals really better off?
The team dealt from its surplus of outfielders to acquire some pitching depth, but does that make them better? Well, maybe.
The starting rotation should be better with Lackey and Masterson replacing Kelly and Martinez, who has been shipped back to Memphis to keep him stretched out as a starter. The biggest question is how Masterson's knee holds up.
On the hitting side, moving Craig opens up an opportunity for Taveras, but weakens an already thin bench. It also remains to be seen if Taveras can outproduce Craig, at least this season.
Overall, I would have been happy if Mozeliak had just stopped with the Masterson trade. The Lackey trade is one that could certainly come back to haunt him. However, it obvious that Mo felt that he had to make a big move to try to shake up this team and get them back to playing the way they're capable.
The Cardinals overpaid on John Lackey
Lackey is a good pitcher and all that, but is he really worth both Allen Craig and Joe Kelly? My initial impression when I heard of the trade was that we "sold low" on both Craig and Kelly. Yes, they were both having down years and perhaps had fallen out of favor with the Cards, but couldn't we have gotten something better for them?
Despite all that, I don't think we could have used those two to get David Price and I don't think that John Mozeliak would have given these guys up for a two-month rental (aka Jon Lester), so maybe Lackey was the best he could do.
David Price's price was cheaper than I thought
In a 3-team deal, the Rays traded Price to Detroit while getting Nick Franklin (from Seattle), Drew Smyly (from Detroit) and minor leaguer Willy Adames. Franklin was, at best, a top 50 prospect and has yet to hit in the majors. Smyly is a good, solid left handed pitcher. While Adames is kind of a "meh" prospect.
Could the Cardinals have topped that? Certainly. Give the Rays Shelby Miller, Stephen Piscotty and some mid-level prospect and you should have a deal.
My thought all along is that it would take a top-end prospect to land Price, but apparently that was not the case.
Acquiring Justin Masterson was a classic Mozeliak move
The last few years we've grown accustomed to the Cardinals GM John Mozeliak making small tweaks to the team at the trade deadline (or thereafter). The last couple years those tweaks were to use some extra prospects pieces to acquire a struggling pitcher in hopes they turn it around with the Cards.
In 2012, that pitcher was Edward Mujica, who had a 4.38 ERA with the Marlins before Mo acquired him. He then proceeded to post a 1.03 ERA down the stretch with the Cardinals.
In August of 2013, the Cardinals picked up John Axford from the Brewers, who had a 4.45 ERA prior to the trade and a 1.74 ERA afterwards.
Hopefully, Masterson can follow this same trend.
Are the Cardinals really better off?
The team dealt from its surplus of outfielders to acquire some pitching depth, but does that make them better? Well, maybe.
The starting rotation should be better with Lackey and Masterson replacing Kelly and Martinez, who has been shipped back to Memphis to keep him stretched out as a starter. The biggest question is how Masterson's knee holds up.
On the hitting side, moving Craig opens up an opportunity for Taveras, but weakens an already thin bench. It also remains to be seen if Taveras can outproduce Craig, at least this season.
Overall, I would have been happy if Mozeliak had just stopped with the Masterson trade. The Lackey trade is one that could certainly come back to haunt him. However, it obvious that Mo felt that he had to make a big move to try to shake up this team and get them back to playing the way they're capable.
Thursday, July 31, 2014
Cardinals trade Joe Kelly and Allen Craig for John Lackey
OK, stop me if you've heard this before:
John Mozeliak: Mike, you got a minute?
Mike Matheny: Yeah. Take a seat.
John Mozeliak: You can't start Craig in right tonight. You'll have to start Taveras.
Mike Matheny: Yeah, I don't want to go fifteen rounds, Mo. The lineup card is mine, and that's all.
John Mozeliak: That lineup card is definitely yours. I'm just saying you can't start Craig in right.
Mike Matheny: Well, I am starting him in right.
John Mozeliak: I don't think so. He plays for Boston now.
Mike Matheny: You traded Craig?
John Mozeliak: Yeah. And Joe Kelly too.
Mike Matheny: You are outside your mind.
John Mozeliak: Yeah. Cuckoo.
In a scene right out of Moneyball, the Cardinals traded Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston for starting pitcher John Lackey, minor leaguer Corey Littrell and cash. Not only does the move help shore up the Cards starting rotation, but it seemingly forces manager Mike Matheny to play Oscar Taveras, who has only started 6 games since July 10th.
Like Matheny, I was torn between playing Craig and letting him fight out of his slump versus playing Taveras and seeing what he could do on a regular basis. Now that decision is no longer in Matheny's hands.
In addition, the Cardinals replace Joe Kelly in the rotation with John Lackey. Kelly, who has a career 3.25 ERA as a starter, has struggled this year with a 4.37 ERA in 7 starts. While Lackey has pitched well this year with a 3.60 ERA in arguably the toughest division in baseball.
As an added bonus, Lackey has apparently said that he will honor the unusual clause in his contract which pays him only league miminum for the 2015 season due to his having Tommy John surgery between 2010 and 2014. Thus, the ability to keep Lackey around next year for a mere $500K definitely makes this move more attractive.
Long story short, it appears that both Kelly and Craig had fallen out of favor with the Cardinals, so Mozeliak made a move to bring in some new blood and hopefully breath some new life into this team.
Coupled with yesterday's acquisition of Justin Masterson, the Cardinals rotation now has a new look with Adam Wainwright, followed by Lance Lynn, Lackey, Shelby Miller and Masterson.
Plus, the Cardinals may not be done, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times is reporting that the Cardinals may also still be involved in the David Price sweepstakes. (If such a move is made, its likely that Shelby Miller will be involved).
All-in-all, its been a pretty interesting deadline to say the least.
John Mozeliak: Mike, you got a minute?
Mike Matheny: Yeah. Take a seat.
John Mozeliak: You can't start Craig in right tonight. You'll have to start Taveras.
Mike Matheny: Yeah, I don't want to go fifteen rounds, Mo. The lineup card is mine, and that's all.
John Mozeliak: That lineup card is definitely yours. I'm just saying you can't start Craig in right.
Mike Matheny: Well, I am starting him in right.
John Mozeliak: I don't think so. He plays for Boston now.
Mike Matheny: You traded Craig?
John Mozeliak: Yeah. And Joe Kelly too.
Mike Matheny: You are outside your mind.
John Mozeliak: Yeah. Cuckoo.
In a scene right out of Moneyball, the Cardinals traded Allen Craig and Joe Kelly to Boston for starting pitcher John Lackey, minor leaguer Corey Littrell and cash. Not only does the move help shore up the Cards starting rotation, but it seemingly forces manager Mike Matheny to play Oscar Taveras, who has only started 6 games since July 10th.
Like Matheny, I was torn between playing Craig and letting him fight out of his slump versus playing Taveras and seeing what he could do on a regular basis. Now that decision is no longer in Matheny's hands.
In addition, the Cardinals replace Joe Kelly in the rotation with John Lackey. Kelly, who has a career 3.25 ERA as a starter, has struggled this year with a 4.37 ERA in 7 starts. While Lackey has pitched well this year with a 3.60 ERA in arguably the toughest division in baseball.
As an added bonus, Lackey has apparently said that he will honor the unusual clause in his contract which pays him only league miminum for the 2015 season due to his having Tommy John surgery between 2010 and 2014. Thus, the ability to keep Lackey around next year for a mere $500K definitely makes this move more attractive.
Long story short, it appears that both Kelly and Craig had fallen out of favor with the Cardinals, so Mozeliak made a move to bring in some new blood and hopefully breath some new life into this team.
Coupled with yesterday's acquisition of Justin Masterson, the Cardinals rotation now has a new look with Adam Wainwright, followed by Lance Lynn, Lackey, Shelby Miller and Masterson.
Plus, the Cardinals may not be done, as Marc Topkin of the Tampa Bay Times is reporting that the Cardinals may also still be involved in the David Price sweepstakes. (If such a move is made, its likely that Shelby Miller will be involved).
All-in-all, its been a pretty interesting deadline to say the least.
Wednesday, July 30, 2014
Cardinals acquire Justin Masterson from Indians for James Ramsey
While John Mozeliak was busy blowing smoke around all the reporters, myself included, that thought he was chasing the likes of Jon Lester, David Price or Cole Hamels, he was quietly working out a deal with the Indians for starter Justin Masterson.
According to Peter Gammons, Masterson will be headed to the Cards and will likely make his debut on Saturday. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was the first to report that James Ramsey would be the player headed to the Indians.
After a stellar 2013 season, in which he went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA for the Indians, Masterson has struggled this year, posting a 5.51 ERA in 19 starts. However, per Steve Adams of mlbtraderumors.com, Masterson's former pitching coach, Mickey Callaway attributes his struggles to a knee injury which may have caused him to change his mechanics.
In any case, the Cardinals are hoping that he is now healthy and will return to form.
As for the Indians, they are getting one of the Cardinals better outfield prospects in Ramsey. A first round pick in 2012, Baseball America ranked him as the Cards # 8 prospect heading into the season. He has put up excellent numbers at AA Springfield, with a .300/.389/.527 with 13 homers.
Despite the acquisition of Masterson, the Cards could still go after Jon Lester, per Jon Paul Morosi. However, such a deal would likely cost them Shelby Miller, per Morosi.
Overall, I like the Masterson acquisition. It is a classic low risk/high upside kind of move. Losing Ramsey hurts, as I considered him the Cards center fielder of the future, but hopefully the team can turn Masterson around and convince him to stay long-term.
As for a deal involving Miller for Lester--yes, please, as long as it doesn't require 3 other prospects on top of it.
According to Peter Gammons, Masterson will be headed to the Cards and will likely make his debut on Saturday. Joel Sherman of the New York Post was the first to report that James Ramsey would be the player headed to the Indians.
After a stellar 2013 season, in which he went 14-10 with a 3.45 ERA for the Indians, Masterson has struggled this year, posting a 5.51 ERA in 19 starts. However, per Steve Adams of mlbtraderumors.com, Masterson's former pitching coach, Mickey Callaway attributes his struggles to a knee injury which may have caused him to change his mechanics.
In any case, the Cardinals are hoping that he is now healthy and will return to form.
As for the Indians, they are getting one of the Cardinals better outfield prospects in Ramsey. A first round pick in 2012, Baseball America ranked him as the Cards # 8 prospect heading into the season. He has put up excellent numbers at AA Springfield, with a .300/.389/.527 with 13 homers.
Despite the acquisition of Masterson, the Cards could still go after Jon Lester, per Jon Paul Morosi. However, such a deal would likely cost them Shelby Miller, per Morosi.
Overall, I like the Masterson acquisition. It is a classic low risk/high upside kind of move. Losing Ramsey hurts, as I considered him the Cards center fielder of the future, but hopefully the team can turn Masterson around and convince him to stay long-term.
As for a deal involving Miller for Lester--yes, please, as long as it doesn't require 3 other prospects on top of it.
More Cardinals trade rumors: Pitching, pitching and more pitching
UPDATE: The Cardinals have acquired Justin Masterson from the Indians in exchange for AA outfielder James Ramsey. You can read more about the acquisition HERE.
The non-waiver deadline is only a day away and the Cardinals remain linked to various starting pitchers. Joe Strauss has a nice article explaining why starting pitching is the focus for the Cards, while the offense continues to struggle. He lists Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson and David Price as the pitchers that the team is at least doing due diligence on.
Here's a look at each of those pitchers and where things currently stand in the rumor mill:
Jon Lester
Lester is certainly the hottest commodity right now. After he was scratched from today's start, indicating that a trade may be imminent, rumors having been flying left and right as to where he may end up (and most of them false).
Sifting through all the noise, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks that the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates and Mariners are the primary suitors for Lester, while Jon Heyman is reporting that the Dodgers and Cardinals may lead the race for Lester's services.
Cliff Lee
Lee is probably a fallback option for most teams, including the Cardinals. He just recently came back from an injury and has been roughed up in his two starts. Per Jayson Stark, scouts who have watched Lee feel that he is "far from healthy" and he is likely to be traded in August, if at all.
A.J. Burnett
There hasn't been much buzz surrounding the Cardinals and Burnett, even though the Cards are one of the teams that Burnett can be traded to without his consent, per Jerry Crasnick.
What we do know is that its unlikely that Burnett will be returning to the Pirates, as Jayson Stark reports that talks between the Pirates and Phillies are "all but dead".
Cole Hamels
Hamels remains an option for the Cardinals as they are once again one of the teams he can be traded to without his consent, per Jon Paul Morosi.
However, it appears that the Phillies are not serious about trading Hamels, according to Jon Heyman, as their asking price is astoromical.
Ian Kennedy
There has been little or no talk regarding the Cards and Kennedy and it remains to be seen if the Padres are serious about moving him.
According to Jayson Stark, its about a 50/50 proposition that Kennedy is traded.
Justin Masterson
Masterson is another pitcher on the block who appears to be flying below the radar. He is having a down year, but Buster Olney says that the Indians are "ready to move" him.
David Price
The Rays have put themselves back in the playoff hunt after climbing from 18 games under .500 to just one game under. One would think that would preclude them from trading Price, especially since he is still under team control for 2015 and could be traded this winter instead.
However, Jon Heyman reports that the Rays are telling teams that they are "talking and willing" to trade Price. While Heyman notes that, in addition to Lester, the Dodgers and Cardinals are also the most aggressive pursuers of Price.
Overall, the Cardinals appear likely to acquire a starter by the deadline as they have no starter listed for Saturday, per Derrick Goold, with Mike Matheny indicating that the starter for Saturday could be an "external" option.
Stay tuned for more and the rumors continue to fly....
The non-waiver deadline is only a day away and the Cardinals remain linked to various starting pitchers. Joe Strauss has a nice article explaining why starting pitching is the focus for the Cards, while the offense continues to struggle. He lists Jon Lester, Cliff Lee, A.J. Burnett, Cole Hamels, Ian Kennedy, Justin Masterson and David Price as the pitchers that the team is at least doing due diligence on.
Here's a look at each of those pitchers and where things currently stand in the rumor mill:
Jon Lester
Lester is certainly the hottest commodity right now. After he was scratched from today's start, indicating that a trade may be imminent, rumors having been flying left and right as to where he may end up (and most of them false).
Sifting through all the noise, Nick Cafardo of the Boston Globe thinks that the Dodgers, Cardinals, Pirates and Mariners are the primary suitors for Lester, while Jon Heyman is reporting that the Dodgers and Cardinals may lead the race for Lester's services.
Cliff Lee
Lee is probably a fallback option for most teams, including the Cardinals. He just recently came back from an injury and has been roughed up in his two starts. Per Jayson Stark, scouts who have watched Lee feel that he is "far from healthy" and he is likely to be traded in August, if at all.
A.J. Burnett
There hasn't been much buzz surrounding the Cardinals and Burnett, even though the Cards are one of the teams that Burnett can be traded to without his consent, per Jerry Crasnick.
What we do know is that its unlikely that Burnett will be returning to the Pirates, as Jayson Stark reports that talks between the Pirates and Phillies are "all but dead".
Cole Hamels
Hamels remains an option for the Cardinals as they are once again one of the teams he can be traded to without his consent, per Jon Paul Morosi.
However, it appears that the Phillies are not serious about trading Hamels, according to Jon Heyman, as their asking price is astoromical.
Ian Kennedy
There has been little or no talk regarding the Cards and Kennedy and it remains to be seen if the Padres are serious about moving him.
According to Jayson Stark, its about a 50/50 proposition that Kennedy is traded.
Justin Masterson
Masterson is another pitcher on the block who appears to be flying below the radar. He is having a down year, but Buster Olney says that the Indians are "ready to move" him.
David Price
The Rays have put themselves back in the playoff hunt after climbing from 18 games under .500 to just one game under. One would think that would preclude them from trading Price, especially since he is still under team control for 2015 and could be traded this winter instead.
However, Jon Heyman reports that the Rays are telling teams that they are "talking and willing" to trade Price. While Heyman notes that, in addition to Lester, the Dodgers and Cardinals are also the most aggressive pursuers of Price.
Overall, the Cardinals appear likely to acquire a starter by the deadline as they have no starter listed for Saturday, per Derrick Goold, with Mike Matheny indicating that the starter for Saturday could be an "external" option.
Stay tuned for more and the rumors continue to fly....
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